Gold soars past USD 3,200 as trade war deepens, dollar loses ground

Gold blazed past the USD 3,200 mark on Friday, as a faltering dollar and an escalating US-China trade war stirred recession fears, sending investors flocking to the safety of the yellow metal.

Spot gold was up nearly 2% at USD 3,235.89 an ounce at 2:32 p.m. ET (1832 GMT), after hitting a record high of USD 3,245.28 earlier in the session. Bullion is up over 6% this week.

US gold futures rose 2.1% to settle at USD 3244.6.

“Gold is clearly seen as the favoured safe-haven asset in a world upended by Trump’s trade war. The US dollar has depreciated, and US Treasuries are selling off hard, as faith in the US as a reliable trading partner has diminished,” said Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree.

China increased its tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday, raising the stakes in a confrontation between the world’s two largest economies.

The dollar fell against its peers, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for overseas buyers.

A combination of central bank buying, US Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, geopolitical instabilities and a surge of investor flows into gold-backed ETFs has also supported gold’s rally this year.

US monthly producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.4% in March, but tariffs on imports are expected to drive inflation higher in the coming months.

Traders now bet that the Fed will resume cutting rates in June and see around 90 basis points worth of cuts by the end of 2025.

“A minor correction (for gold) wouldn’t surprise, but the path forward is up and away as CPI and PPI give the Fed more room to cut and will keep downward pressure on the dollar,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

Non-yielding gold, a traditional hedge against global uncertainties and inflation, also tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment.

But certain developments could cap gold’s rise, UBS analysts said in a note, including “easing geopolitical tensions, a return to more cooperative trade relations, or a significant improvement in the US macro and fiscal backdrop.”

Spot silver gained 3.2% to USD 32.18 an ounce, while platinum fell 0.2% to USD 936.36. Palladium advanced 0.7% to USD 914.87.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Sahal Muhammed and Nia Williams)

China has considered opening its USD 520 billion ETF market to Western market makers, sources say

HONG KONG – China has been looking at allowing Western firms such as Citadel Securities and Jane Street to act as market makers in its rapidly growing exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.

Over the last two years, Chinese authorities have issued more licenses and encouraged the development of domestic market makers. But international market makers are more experienced in providing liquidity to ETFs and the move would boost trading efficiency and lower costs, the people said, declining to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The sources cautioned, however, that the escalating trade war with US that has seen China saddled with tariffs of 145% this year could delay Beijing’s official green light for US firms.

ETF market makers serve as liquidity providers, offering continuous bid and ask quotes for ETF shares which allow investors to trade the products efficiently and at lower cost. Licenced market makers in China enjoy lower fees and less restrictions in trading.

Billionaire Ken Griffin’s Citadel Securities and Jane Street, two of the largest market-making firms in the US, as well as Amsterdam-headquartered Optiver may be the first to benefit when the market is opened up, according to one of the people and a third source.

Citadel Securities applied in January to set up its own securities broker unit in China.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission, Citadel Securities and Jane Street did not respond to Reuters requests for comment. Optiver declined to comment.

China’s ETF sector has expanded 134% over the past two years to be worth USD 510 billion, driven by strong inflows from state capital that has propped up the stock market. It is now the second-largest ETF market in the Asia Pacific region after Japan’s, which is worth USD 620 billion.

Foreign financial firms have in recent years been granted wider access to China’s domestic securities, funds and insurance sectors.

Even so, many foreign firms have trimmed headcount in mainland China and pared back expansion plans, concerned about slow growth for the world’s second-biggest economy and the rise in geopolitical tensions.

Last year, firms doing so included Fidelity International, Morgan Stanley, and Legal & General.

(Reporting by Selena Li; Editing by Sumeet Chatterjee and Edwina Gibbs)

Brent, WTI prices climb more than USD 1 on possible Iran crude restriction

Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed more than USD 1 on Friday after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the United States could end Iran’s oil exports as part of an effort to bring the Islamic Republic to terms over its nuclear program.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 64.76 a barrel, up USD 1.43, or 2.26%. US West Texas Intermediate crude finished at USD 61.50 a barrel, up USD 1.43 or 2.38%.

“Strict enforcement of restrictions on Iranian crude exports would reduce global supply,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. “I suspect China will continue to buy oil from Iran.”

Wright’s comments provided upward momentum for oil prices, following volatile price swings this week as US President Donald Trump’s new tariff regime forced traders to reassess the geopolitical risks facing the crude market.

“The US being a geopolitical risk is new for the market,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. “We’ll have this reordering of the chessboard like we did after Russia invaded Ukraine.”

China announced on Friday it will impose a 125% tariff on US goods starting on Saturday, up from the previously announced 84%, after Trump raised tariffs against China to 145% on Thursday.

Trump this week paused heavy tariffs against dozens of other trading partners, but a prolonged dispute between the world’s two biggest economies is likely to reduce global trade volumes and disrupt trading routes, weighing on global economic growth and reducing demand for oil.

“Although the implementation of some tariffs, excluding those on China, was delayed by 90 days, the market damage had already been inflicted, leaving prices struggling to regain stability,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

The US Energy Information Administration on Thursday lowered its global economic growth forecasts and warned that tariffs could weigh heavily on oil prices. It reduced its US and global oil demand forecasts for this year and next year.

China’s 2025 economic growth is expected to fall relative to last year’s pace, a Reuters poll showed, as US tariffs raise pressure on the world’s top oil importer.

The impact of tariffs could be “catastrophic” for developing countries, the director of the United Nations’ trade agency said.

ANZ Bank analysts forecast oil consumption will decline by 1% if global economic growth falls below 3%, said senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba, Robert Harvey, and Sudarshan Varadhan, additional reporting by Arunima Kumar; Editing by David Goodman, Kirsten Donovan, Jane Merriman, Nia Williams, and Rod Nickel)

Broadening asset volatility intensifies worries for tariff-tossed US stocks

NEW YORK – Wild swings in global markets are poised to keep US stock investors on edge in the coming week, as a weakening dollar and a selloff in Treasuries compound extreme equity volatility that erupted after President Donald Trump launched his sweeping tariffs.

The S&P 500 was set for solid gains on the week after Trump pulled back on the heftiest tariffs on many countries, relieving Wall Street’s worst-case scenario. Still, the benchmark index still was down about 13% from its February 19 all-time closing high. Concerns about lasting economic damage remained as the US and China ratcheted up their trade battle and questions lingered over levies elsewhere as Trump only paused many of the most severe tariffs.

Investors punished US assets in the wake of Trump’s tariffs, with the dollar plunging against other major currencies and benchmark US Treasury yields, which move opposite to bond prices, surging.

The stock market is “very unsettled” as investors weigh how to price in any economic fallout from the changing tariff backdrop, said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

The market is “kind of trapped by the level of uncertainty that lurks out there,” Luschini said. “And therefore investors are largely unwilling to make big bets in one direction or another.”

A volatile week in stocks was highlighted by Wednesday’s 9.5% jump for the S&P 500, the index’s biggest one-day rise since October 2008 during the heart of the financial crisis.

The Cboe Volatility index, an options-based measure of investor anxiety, stood at around 40, more than twice its historic median level.

Stock investors were warily watching moves across asset classes, in particular the dollar and Treasuries. An index that measures the dollar against a basket of currencies on Friday fell below 100 for the first time in nearly two years, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was on pace for its biggest weekly jump in decades.

In many prior risk-off events, the dollar and Treasuries have acted as safe havens, but that has not been the case over the last week as stocks have tumbled, said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital in South Carolina.

“We are the reserve currency and the risk free asset of the world, and our markets are not acting as such,” Todd said.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury on Friday topped 4.5%, which investors have cited as a level that could cause turbulence for stocks. Higher yields translate into higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, while potentially making bonds more competitive investments against stocks.

“Until Treasuries stabilize and start to behave normally, risk assets will struggle,” Barclays analysts said in a note on Friday.

Quarterly US corporate results in the coming week provide another test for investors. Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, and Netflix are among the major US companies set to report.

Bryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, said he would be looking for companies which can show confidence in their businesses despite the shifting tariff landscape.

“I’m looking for companies that have the competence and the desire to invest through this cycle,” VanCronkhite said.

Data on US retail sales for March will shed light on the health of the consumer, but investors may discount the report to some extent because it covers a period before Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. A survey on Friday showed US consumer sentiment fell sharply in April and 12-month inflation expectations surged to the highest level since 1981 amid unease over escalating trade tensions.

Markets will remain highly sensitive to developments on the trade front. Investors will hope for evidence of progress between the US and countries for which Trump has paused hefty levies for 90 days.

The faceoff between the US and China — the world’s two largest economies — will also consume attention. Beijing increased its tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday after Trump’s move to hike duties on Chinese goods.

“China negotiations remain key for markets,” Citi strategists said in a note.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by David Gregorio)

Oil settles down over 3% as investors reassess Trump’s tariff flip

Oil prices settled more than USD 2 per barrel lower on Thursday, wiping out the last session’s rally, as investors reassessed a planned pause in sweeping US tariffs and focus shifted to a deepening trade war between Washington and Beijing.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell USD 2.28, or 3.7%, to settle at USD 60.07 per barrel. Brent crude futures fell USD 2.15, or 3.3%, to USD 63.33 a barrel.

Both contracts had gained more than USD 2 a barrel on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump paused the heavy tariffs he had announced against dozens of US trading partners a week ago, marking an abrupt U-turn less than 24 hours after the levies took effect.

At the same time, however, Trump also raised tariffs against China. US tariffs on Chinese imports now total 145%, the White House told media on Thursday.

China announced an additional import levy on US goods, imposing an 84% tariff.

Higher tariffs against China are likely to prompt lower US crude imports by Beijing, backing up supply and raising US storage levels, trading advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates told clients on Thursday.

US crude oil exports to China fell to 112,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March, nearly half of last year’s 190,000 bpd, data from vessel tracker Kpler showed.

“If these trade disputes continue much longer, it’s likely global economics will suffer significant economic damage,” said Henry Hoffman, co-portfolio manager of the Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund.

US crude stockpiles rose by 2.6 million barrels last week, government data showed on Wednesday, almost double the increase of 1.4 million barrels analysts projected in a Reuters poll.

Macquarie analysts said on Thursday that they expect another build this week.

The US is also moving ahead with a 10% levy on all of its imports.

The US Energy Information Administration on Thursday lowered its global economic growth forecasts and warned that tariffs could weigh heavily on oil prices, as it slashed its US and global oil demand forecasts for this year and next.

“The tariff-driven expectation of reduced demand amid the continued possibility of a US recession will remain front and center of trader concerns in likely keeping a lid on near-term price gains,” Ritterbusch and Associates said.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan and Arunima Kumar; Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar and Jeslyn Lerh; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Kirsten Donovan, David Evans and Mark Porter)

Wall St ends sharply lower as tariff risks send investors fleeing

NEW YORK – Wall Street stocks tumbled on Thursday on mounting worries over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s multi-front tariff war.

All three major US stock indexes suffered steep losses, forfeiting much of the previous session’s gains as growing concerns over the escalating Washington-Beijing trade face-off dampened optimism over upbeat economic data and US-Europe trade negotiations.

After Trump announced a 90-day tariff reprieve on Wednesday, the S&P 500 surged 9.5%, the largest one-day percentage jump since October 2008. The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 12.2%, notching its second-biggest daily gain on record.

Following the whipsaw of Wednesday’s bounce and Thursday’s selloff, the S&P 500 remained well below levels before the reciprocal tariffs were announced last week.

“Investors are still uncomfortable with it, because they don’t know what the end game is,” said Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor at Murphy & Sylvest in Elmhurst, Illinois. “I think what we’re seeing, still, is investor concern about tariffs and that is pretty much front and center for everything.”

The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index report showed the prices consumers pay for a basket of goods unexpectedly edged lower in March, with core price growth cooling down 2.8% year-on-year, coming within one percentage point of the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.

But the Fed’s path forward, in light of ongoing trade negotiations, is less clear.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Thursday that while the US economy remains strong, the effects of Trump’s trade policies are unclear, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said rate cuts could resume once the uncertainties surrounding trade policy is resolved.

In response to Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, the European Union will delay retaliatory levies on American goods as countries within the bloc scramble to reach trade deals with Washington, said European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

But the trade war with Beijing persists, with China vowing to “follow through to the end” if the US does not let up.

The CBOE Market Volatility Index, often called the “fear index,” remained elevated.

“It’s hard for investors to feel comfortable about buying stocks with volatility so high,” Nolte added.

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 lost 189.79 points, or 3.45%, to end at 5,267.11 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 737.66 points, or 4.31%, to 16,387.31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,029.51 points, or 2.54%, to 39,578.94.

Big Tech came under pressure once again, with each of the so-called Magnificent Seven group of artificial intelligence-related momentum ending with steep losses.

CarMax slid after the used-car retailer missed fourth-quarter profit expectations.

First-quarter earnings season kicks off on Friday with big banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo due to report.

(Reporting by Stephen Culp; Additional reporting by Shashwat Chauhan and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Chang)

Chinese stocks have big role to play in trade war

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

HONG KONG – US President Donald Trump’s erratic policymaking may be out of Beijing’s hands, but there is one vital thing it can control: its stock market. Chinese indexes have been less volatile this past week compared to global benchmarks. Official intervention is one reason. The resilience of equities matters now more than usual to China as it seeks to shore up domestic confidence both to withstand US tariffs and to spur consumption.

Since Trump unveiled sweeping reciprocal tariffs on his “Liberation Day” on April 2, the S&P500 has fluctuated wildly – diving 12% in four days and then rallying 10% on Wednesday following Trump’s abrupt U-turn on most countries, except China which was hit with a 125% levy. By contrast, Shenzhen and Shanghai remain calm: the benchmark CSI300 has retreated by a relatively mild 4% this month.

Chinese equities were already deeply discounted but it helps a lot that the “national team”, or designated state-backed entities, are buying up stocks to prop up prices; others have pledged share buybacks. Regulators have also eased rules to allow insurers to up their equity allocations.

Most notably, Central Huijin, part of the country’s sovereign wealth fund, has stepped in as a de facto market stabilization fund. On Monday, it said it had increased holdings of exchange-traded funds and will continue to do so, without elaborating. That sends a powerful signal to local investors that more support is on the way: the state giant oversees more than USD 27 trillion of assets after a February revamp which elevated its role in helping Beijing support asset prices.

Moreover, investors are betting on aggressive fiscal policies to help the government get close to its GDP growth target of “around 5%” this year. That’s because boosting consumption can offset collapsing exports for the USD 18 trillion trade-dependent economy. And reflating property and stock prices is key to that goal.

Optics matter too. Chaos in the US bond market essentially forced Trump to blink on his trade war. Meanwhile, China vowed earlier this year to stabilize asset prices. Fulfilling that promise will shore up the faith ordinary Chinese have in Beijing’s broader policy response. That gives China’s national team a vital role in the ongoing standoff between the world’s two largest economies.

Context news

China’s top leaders are planning a high-level meeting soon to hammer out measures to boost the economy and stabilise capital markets as trade war with the United States escalates, Reuters reported on April 9, citing people with knowledge of the matter.

Central Huijin, the domestic unit of sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp, said on April 2 it had increased its holdings of exchange-traded funds and would continue to do so in the future to “resolutely safeguard” the stable operation of the capital market.

(By Ka Sing Chan; Editing by Robyn Mak and Ujjaini Dutta)

US dollar rebounds against safe-haven currencies after Trump pauses tariffs

NEW YORK – The US dollar rebounded against safe-haven currencies, including the yen and Swiss franc on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on many new tariffs on trading partners, but escalated a confrontation with Beijing by hiking duties on Chinese goods.

Trump said he had authorized a 90-day pause in “reciprocal” 10% tariffs but was also raising the tariff rate for China to 125%, effective immediately.

The dollar had been weakening against its peers earlier in the session after Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries took effect on Wednesday, including massive 104% duties on Chinese goods.

China swiftly retaliated with an 84% tariff on US goods from Thursday, while EU countries also approved on Wednesday the bloc’s first countermeasures against US tariffs.

“Huge moves in the marketplace right now, particularly on equities, who are taking this news very well,” said Amarjit Sahota, executive director at Klarity FX in San Francisco.

“But the questions are really going to come: why did we see this reprieve today and is it even a good idea? Personally, I don’t think it’s a good idea: 90-day pause just creates more uncertainty for 90 days.”

On Wall Street, all three main indexes surged following the Trump announcement, with the Nasdaq jumping 10%, benchmark S&P 500 gaining 8.6%, and the Dow rising 7%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pared gains after the Treasury saw strong demand for a USD 39 billion sale of the notes on Wednesday. The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes rose 13.6 basis points to 4.392%.

The greenback rose 1.2% against the safe-haven yen to 148.80, reversing losses in early session trade. It gained 1.14% versus the Swiss franc to 0.8569 franc.

“It looks like very poor policy decisions or at least the plan or execution has been miserable. Markets are liking the reprieve for now so they are rallying but is it really sustainable? And then what does it mean for the US dollar,” Sahota added.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated in a Fox News interview that the US still has a strong dollar policy.

German conservatives under Friedrich Merz agreed on a coalition deal with the centre-left Social Democrats on Wednesday, helping to support the euro.

The single currency firmed 0.11% to USD 1.09685, creeping back towards last week’s peak at USD 1.1147.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rebounded from early session losses. It was up 0.11% to 102.88.

The People’s Bank of China will not allow sharp yuan declines and has asked major state-owned banks to reduce US dollar purchases, people with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Wednesday.

The dollar was down 1.01% versus the yuan offshore to 7.349 yuan, after reaching an all-time high at 7.4292.

(Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo and Chibuike Oguh in New York; Editing by Kim Coghill, Mark Potter, Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Gareth Jones, and Nia Williams)

US Treasury 10-year note auction outcome shows strong demand

NEW YORK – A US Treasury debt auction of USD 39 billion in benchmark 10-year notes was well received on Wednesday, showing solid investor demand even after a bond market sell-off driven by an escalating trade war between the United States and its major trading partners led by China.

The US Treasury’s auction came in better than expected, priced at a high yield of 4.435%, lower than the rate forecast at the bid deadline.

After the auction, the 10-year yield was last at 4.38% UIS10YT=RR, down from 4.466% just before the 1300 EDT auction. That said, the 10-year has risen sharply this week by 37 basis points, on track for its largest weekly gain since June 2013.

“The 10-year Treasury auction went better than expected certainly against a backdrop where the bond market had been trading very weakly over the course of the last week,” said Jeffrey Palma, head of multi-asset solutions and macro research, at Cohen Steers in New York.

“That strong result, at least in the short run, is a positive for sentiment. The longer-term questions still remain around the impact from tariffs and so forth on growth. But at least for the short run it’s a bit of welcome good news against what has been a tough backdrop.”

The auction statistics were robust across the board.

The bid-to-cover ratio, another gauge of demand, was 2.67, the highest since December, solidly above the 2.53 average.

Indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks, took up a record 87.9% of the bids, up from 67.4% last month.

Dealer participation was at 10.7%, lower than the 13.1% in the previous month and the 14.5% average. High dealer participation in Treasury auctions suggests a lack of interest from other investors, meaning dealers had to step in to absorb the note.

Investors have been worried about the prospect of a major trade conflict, which has sparked worries about demand for what is supposed to be a global safe haven.

Those fears may have eased for now after US President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he would pause many of his new tariffs for 90 days, even as he raised them further on imports from China.

On Tuesday, the US Treasury sold USD 58 billion in three-year notes, and it was poorly received by the market. The note was priced at 3.784%, higher by over 2 bps than what the market indicated, suggesting investors demanded a premium to buy the three-year debt. In bond market parlance, the three-year note auction “tailed”.

Last month’s 10-year note auction came in within expectations as well, with end-user demand stable. The bid-to-cover ratio, another gauge of demand, was 2.59, the highest since December.

Wells Fargo had earlier pointed out in a research note that 10-year note auctions in April usually tend to be weak.

The last five 10-year reopening auctions had been softer than anticipated, with the largest tail in 2024 at 3.1 bps. The average tail over the last five years was 1.8 bps, Wells Fargo wrote.

On Thursday, the US Treasury will sell the last supply for the week: USD 22 billion in 30-year bonds US30YT=RR. The long-term bond has been massively sold off in the cash market, pushing their yields to the highest since November 2023. The 30-year bond yield was last up 7.7 bps at 4.791%.

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Sinead Carew; Editing by Megan Davies and Chizu Nomiyama)

Oil jumps 4% after Trump pauses tariffs on many countries, raises China levy

NEW YORK – Oil prices climbed more than 4% on Wednesday, bouncing back from four-year lows earlier in the session, after US President Donald Trump said he would further increase tariffs on China but pause the tariffs he announced last week for most other countries.

Trump authorized a 90-day pause and raised the tariff rate for China to 125%, effective immediately. The previously announced 104% tariff on China kicked in earlier on Wednesday.

Brent futures settled up USD 2.66, or 4.23%, to USD 65.48 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed USD 2.77, or 4.65%, higher at USD 62.35.

Both contracts had lost about 7% earlier in the session before the reversal.

“We’ve reached a turning point in the trade conflict with Trump giving the countries that have shown desire to work on a deal to get rid of tariffs some time to work it out,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group.

“What Trump is doing is putting China out on an economic island all by themselves,” Flynn said.

China announced additional tariffs on US goods, imposing an 84% tariff on US goods from Thursday.

“I think the market expects a China deal to come down the pipe,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. “We seem to be making inroads into some countries that the Chinese were hoping to lean on.”

However, the escalating trade war between China and the US continued to pressure oil prices, analysts said.

The trade conflict is stoking fears of a global recession, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “While oil demand has likely not suffered yet, rising concerns of weaker oil demand over the coming months require lower prices to trigger supply adjustments to prevent an oversupplied market,” Staunovo added.

Countermeasures in Canada, a major US trading partner, also took effect on Wednesday.

Countries in the European Union agreed on Wednesday to impose 25% tariffs on a range of US imports in a first round of countermeasures.

A decision last week by the OPEC+ group of producers to raise output in May by 411,000 barrels per day, which analysts say is likely to push the market into surplus, limited oil’s gains.

In the US, crude inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels to 442.3 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.4-million-barrel rise.

“Exports are on the lower level and we will have to see if we are going to lose access to the China market, and whether we will see a diminished export situation going forward,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital in New York.

The operator of the Keystone oil pipeline system in Canada and the United States issued a force majeure notice on Wednesday after a leak in North Dakota, according to media reports.

The pipeline was shut on Tuesday after an oil spill near Fort Ransom, North Dakota.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York, Siyi Liu in Singapore, Colleen Howe in Beijing, Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, Enes Tunagur in London. Editing by David Goodman, Mark Potter, Ros Russell, Cynthia Osterman, and Rod Nickel)

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