Politics jolts markets as Japan stocks soar 4%, bitcoin leaps to record high with gold

TOKYO – Japanese stocks surged more than 4% to an all-time high while the yen skidded on Monday after fiscal and monetary dove Sanae Takaichi was elected as leader of the ruling party, putting her on course to become the nation’s first female prime minister.

Gold climbed to a record peak above USD 3,900, while leading cryptocurrency bitcoin rallied to a lifetime high on Sunday, with investors increasingly turning to alternative assets as a store of value as the US government shutdown frayed nerves.

Japan’s Nikkei soared as much as 4.3% to an unprecedented 47,734.04 in the first 15 minutes of trading after Takaichi bested the more moderate Shinjiro Koizumi in the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership vote on Saturday, stoking expectations for fiscal stimulus.

The yen slumped 1.6% to the cusp of 150 per US dollar while short-dated Japanese government bond yields slid to a two-week low as traders pared back bets on when the Bank of Japan will resume raising interest rates.

Market-implied odds of a BOJ hike by year-end fell to 41% from 68% on Friday.

A year ago, Takaichi criticized the BOJ’s decision to raise rates as “stupid”, although her recent rhetoric has been more restrained, saying only that central bank policy should be aligned with the government.

“We believe concerns among some investors that the next administration might pursue extreme fiscal expansion or exert political pressure on the BOJ are overblown,” Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities economists wrote in a research report, noting that Takaichi’s stance “appears closely aligned” with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s “cautious approach” to policy normalization.

Most other major share markets around the region were closed for holidays, including mainland China, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.3%, ahead of a holiday on Tuesday. Australia’s benchmark eased 0.1%, though trading was thinned by holidays in several states, including New South Wales and Queensland.

US S&P 500 futures pointed 0.2% higher, after the cash index rose to a record high on Friday.

The US dollar made up some ground on European currencies, capitalizing on its momentum against the yen to rebound from last week’s 0.5% decline against a basket of major peers.

The euro lost 0.25% to USD 1.1714, and sterling slipped 0.23% to USD 1.34385.

Gold last changed hands around USD 3,904 after advancing as much as 0.9% earlier to a record USD 3,919.59.

Bitcoin traded around USD 123,590 following its jump to USD 125,653.32 on Sunday.

“The shutdown matters this time around,” said Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank.

“This year, bitcoin has traded with ‘US government risks,’ as best shown by its relationship to (the) US Treasury term premium,” he added.

“I suspect bitcoin will rise throughout the shutdown,” and will soon reach USD 135,000, Kendrick predicted.

Oil prices rose after OPEC+ announced on Sunday it would increase production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) from November, the same modest monthly increase as in October, amid persistent concerns over a looming supply glut.

In the run-up to the meeting, sources said Russia was advocating for an output increase of 137,000 bpd to avoid pressuring prices, but Saudi Arabia would have preferred double, triple or even quadruple that figure to regain market share more quickly.

Brent crude futures rose 1.3% to USD 65.39 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at USD 61.71, up by 1.4%.

(Reporting by Kevin Buckland)

Wall Street eyes Washington standoff with stocks near records

NEW YORK – The US government shutdown tops investors’ agenda next week as markets head into the seasonally strong fourth quarter, with equities near record highs bracing for an earnings-season test later this month.

A deep partisan rift in Washington led to a federal government shutdown that risks delaying crucial economic data and could potentially muddy the Federal Reserve’s policy-easing outlook.

Few on Wall Street expect the Washington impasse to derail a rally that has lifted the S&P 500 by 14% to repeated record highs, but with little in the way of major data or earnings, the Capitol Hill drama is set to dominate investor focus.

“The shutdown and the potential reopening … that’s going to get almost all investor attention,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide.

Investors’ main worry is that the shutdown will suspend the flow of timely economic data.

Should the data drought last several weeks, it could cause confusion about the Fed’s monetary policy path, as the central bank will be without government data that helps guide its decisions. It also poses a possible drag on economic growth the longer it extends.

But for now, there is little reason to panic, investors said.

BULLS IN CHARGE

Despite some softness in labor data, the US economy has borne the onslaught of trade and tariff headlines well and corporate earnings have supported stocks’ march higher.

Analysts as of Thursday expected earnings from S&P 500 companies to increase 8.8% in the third quarter from a year ago, up from forecasts of 8.0% growth at the start of July, according to LSEG data.

“In my opinion, lack of data actually puts more burden of proof on bears than it does on bulls,” Hackett said.

Investors will get a taste of the upcoming earnings season, with Levi Strauss and Delta Air Lines set to report results on Thursday.

“The most likely scenario is the market’s just kind of calm … moving sideways during the shutdown,” Hackett said.

KEY Advisors Wealth Management CEO Eddie Ghabour, who sees the shutdown possibly stretching for two to four weeks, echoed the sentiment.

“If we’re right on the shutdown stretching out, if you get extra stimulus in the economy in the form of two more rate cuts, and then the government is back in business, you’re going to see a huge re-acceleration of growth in the economy and the equity markets,” Ghabour said.

Investors will get a read on what Fed policymakers were thinking when they cut rates in September when the minutes of that meeting are released on Wednesday.

SEASONALLY STRONG

For stock bulls, it helps that the just-started fourth quarter is historically the S&P 500’s strongest, with an average gain of about 2.9% and a high share of positive returns, according to LSEG data going back to 1928.

“Despite headline risks and the potential for short-term volatility, the weight of the evidence continues to support a constructive stance,” Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, said in a note on Thursday.

“As always, we will continue to follow the weight of the evidence.”

Meanwhile, the market’s strong momentum has stock bears in hibernation. The S&P 500 logged its 30th record closing high of the year on Thursday.

“The shutdown is going to be the news, but I think the underlying backdrop is really three things, seasonality, which is positive, the tailwind of rate cuts to protect the labor market … and we have momentum in the markets,” said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group.

“We’ve been overweight equities and we are continuing to be that,” he said.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Additional reporting by Laura Matthews; Editing by Alden Bentley and Jamie Freed)

Oil on track for steepest weekly plunge in 3-1/2 months

Oil prices rose slightly on Friday after four straight sessions of declines but were on track for their steepest weekly decline since late June due to market expectations that the OPEC+ group could hike output further despite oversupply concerns.

Brent crude futures gained 18 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 64.29 a barrel by 0000 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed by 19 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 60.67 a barrel.

If prices do not further recover in this session, Brent could close at the lowest level since the week ended May 30, while WTI would finish at a level not seen since May 2.

On a weekly basis, Brent has plunged 8.3%, while WTI is 7.6% lower.

OPEC+ could agree to raise oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, triple the increase for October, as Saudi Arabia seeks to reclaim market share, sources told Reuters this week.

“If OPEC+ do go ahead and announce a 500,000 bpd increase this weekend, it’s likely a big enough increase to send crude oil lower again, initially to support at USD 58.00, before a test of this year’s lows USD 55.00 area,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

Potentially higher OPEC+ supply, slowing global crude refinery runs due to maintenance and a seasonal dip in demand in the months ahead are set to accelerate oil stock builds in the US and elsewhere, analysts say.

The Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that US crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week as refining activity and demand softened.

“Concerns that a US government shutdown will curtail economic activity and the resumption of Iraq’s Kurdish oil exports is also weighing on the crude price,” Sycamore said.

The Group of Seven nations’ finance ministers said on Wednesday they will take steps to increase pressure on Russia by targeting those who are continuing to boost purchases of Russian oil.

(Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Jamie Freed)

Dollar rebounds, uncertainty reigns as US government stays shut

The dollar gained against the euro and yen on Thursday, with the greenback rebounding against the Japanese currency after four consecutive days of losses, as traders weighed the impact of a US government shutdown.

The shutdown leaves a gap in government data, including the closely watched monthly jobs report for September that was due to be released on Friday.

Still, with Federal Reserve and private data continuing to be released, the void may not be as bad as feared, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

“That really misunderstands how the markets have evolved with private sector data,” Chandler said. “I don’t think that either the market nor the Fed is flying blind.”

A Chicago Fed report on Thursday, which combines private and available public data, estimated the September jobless rate was 4.3%, the same as in August and evidence that a feared rapid rise in unemployment had not yet begun.

But details of the report, along with other data, pointed to ongoing sluggishness in the labor market.

The dollar fell on Wednesday after the ADP National Employment report showed private payrolls decreased by 32,000 in September, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates two more times this year.

But the currency retraced that move on Thursday.

“A lot of people thought that with the government closing, the dollar would sell off. And I think that people got caught leaning the wrong way, and now are being forced out of positions,” Chandler said.

The dollar index was last up 0.13% on the day at 97.86. The euro fell 0.09% to USD 1.1719.

Traders see a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s October meeting as almost certain and are pricing in a 90% probability of an additional cut in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan on Thursday said the US central bank appropriately cut rates last month to guard against the risk of a sharp deterioration in the job market, but said that so far the cooling has been gradual and signaled she is not eager to cut rates further.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.08% to 147.17.

Traders are watching this weekend’s election to lead Japan’s ruling party for signs on how fiscal policy will influence the currency.

Sterling GBP= weakened 0.25% to USD 1.3443. Traders have started to assess the impact the UK November budget will have on the economy and sterling.

“In the UK there’s a focus on the fiscal situation,” said Eric Theoret, FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 2.24% to USD 120,218.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell, additional reporting by Joice Alves; Editing by Mark Potter, Gareth Jones, Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Deepa Babington)

Gold rallies to record high on US government shutdown and Fed rate cut bets

Gold prices surged to a record high on Wednesday, lifted by a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand after a US government shutdown, while softer jobs data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at USD 3,861.77 an ounce at 01:48 p.m. ET (1748 GMT) after touching a record peak of USD 3,895.09.

US gold futures for December delivery settled 0.6% higher at USD 3,897.5.

The dollar weakened against a basket of other leading currencies, making dollar-priced gold more affordable for overseas buyers.

“The dollar has been under pressure because, usually, when the government shuts down, the mood turns quite negative on the US,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir, adding that the dollar and US equity markets are among the casualties.

The soft ADP jobs report will not help the dollar, he said, noting how a slowing economy and lower interest rates are bullish for gold.

US private payrolls decreased by 32,000 jobs in September after a downwardly revised 3,000 decline in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 50,000 after a previously reported 54,000 advance in August.

The US government has shut down large parts of its operations, potentially putting thousands of federal jobs at risk, after partisan divisions prevented Congress and the White House from reaching a funding deal.

The shutdown could delay the release of economic indicators, including the closely watched non-farm payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday.

Non-yielding gold, viewed as a safe-haven asset in times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, thrives when interest rates are low.

Investors are pricing in a 99% chance of a rate cut this month, the CME FedWatch Tool shows.

“We are now seeing increased appetite from Western investors, both institutional and retail, as a case of ‘FOMO’ kicks in … Should this trend continue, we would not be surprised to see gold prices break above USD 4,000/oz,” SP Angel analysts said in a note.

Among other precious metals, spot silver gained 1.6% to a more-than-14-year high of USD 47.42 an ounce, platinum lost 1.6% to USD 1,549.17, and palladium was down 1.1% at USD 1,243.31.

(Reporting by Noel John and John Biju in Bengaluru; Editing by David Goodman and Sahal Muhammed)

Asia draws USD 100 billion in capital as investors diversify beyond US, Goldman executive says

SINGAPORE – Asia excluding China has attracted about USD 100 billion in capital inflows over the past nine months as global investors diversify beyond the United States, Kevin Sneader, Goldman Sachs’ GS.N president for Asia-Pacific ex-Japan, said on Wednesday.

Japan has been a key beneficiary of the trend, while China’s equity rally since late last year has been driven mainly by domestic investors and interest in the technology sector, with foreign funds now taking another look at China, he said.

“There is incremental flow in this part of the world,” Sneader said at the Milken Institute Asia Summit 2025 in Singapore. “I think it’s important to put it in the context of a diversification movement, not an exit movement.”

“I think we should be cautious and not get too excited because part of that money is what I call global hedge fund money, the faster money,” he said.

“The mutual funds, longer investors, that money’s still not flowing back into China. But they’re certainly taking a hard look at Asia,” he added.

Sneader said the technology, consumer discretionary and industrial sectors are attracting strong interest in Asia, with healthcare gaining traction in private markets.

The chief executive of Singapore state-owned investor Temasek, Dilhan Pillay, speaking at the same event, said that “globalization as we have known it is gone,” as geopolitics, tariffs and energy constraints have reshaped returns.

“Reconfiguration of supply chains to (prioritize) resilience over efficiency, there’s a cost for resilience,” he said.

Pillay added that artificial intelligence is “the most pervasive thing across the political, social, and economic spectrum.”

Temasek, which manages a S$ 434 billion (USD 340 billion) portfolio, reported an 11.6% rise in net portfolio value to a record high as of March 31, with the US continuing to be its largest destination for capital.

Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC’s Head of Funds and Co-investments, Asia, Private Equity Ankur Meattle said China is seeing more deal activity, including multinationals exploring capital options and succession driven sales, alongside innovation in sectors from biotech to electric vehicles.

“With the capital markets in a better place, one is likely to see some exits also. So there is a pipeline of exits building up that we should see in the next six months,” he said.

(Reporting by Yantoultra Ngui and Jun Yuan Yong; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus and Kim Coghill)

Oil falls as OPEC+ plans to further increase output

Sept 30 (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Tuesday as another anticipated production increase by OPEC+ and the resumption of oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region via Turkey reinforced the outlook for a looming supply surplus.

Brent crude futures for November delivery, expiring on Tuesday, fell 47 cents, or 0.69%, to USD 67.50 a barrel by 0012 GMT. The more active contract for December was down 43 cents, or 0.64%, at USD 66.66 per barrel.

US West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at USD 63.05 a barrel, down 40 cents, or 0.63%.

The drops extend Monday’s drop when both Brent and WTI settled more than 3% lower after logging their sharpest daily declines since August 1, 2025.

Oil’s falls came as Iraq’s Kurdistan region resumed crude oil exports over the weekend and amid reports that OPEC+ is likely to approve an increase in production for November at its meeting this weekend, IG analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note to clients.

In a meeting scheduled for Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, together known as OPEC+, will likely approve another oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day, three sources familiar with the talks said.

“Although (OPEC+ is) under their quota anyway, the market still does not seem to like the fact that more oil is coming in,” Marex analyst Ed Meir said.

Meanwhile, crude oil flowed on Saturday through a pipeline from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq to Turkey for the first time in 2-1/2 years, after an interim deal broke a deadlock, Iraq’s oil ministry said.

The market has remained cautious in recent weeks, balancing supply risks, mainly arising from Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian refineries, with concerns of oversupply and weak demand.

Elsewhere, US President Donald Trump won Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s support for a US-backed Gaza peace proposal, but Hamas’s stance remained uncertain.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

Gold hits record high on rate-cut bets, US government shutdown fears

Gold prices surged past USD 3,800 an ounce for the first time on Monday, setting a new record as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset on US rate cut expectations, fears of a potential government shutdown, and escalating geopolitical tensions.

Spot gold was up 1.9% at USD 3,829.63 per ounce by 2:00 p.m. ET (1800 GMT), after hitting a record high of USD 3,833.37 earlier in the session.

US gold futures for December delivery settled 1.2% higher at USD 3,855.2.

The US dollar index fell 0.2%, making greenback-priced bullion less expensive for overseas buyers.

“Safe-haven demand focused on the potential US government shutdown” is one of the driving factors behind gold’s rally, said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

“The dollar is under some light pressure in response to that, certainly supporting the precious metals complex.”

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with top congressional leaders from both parties later on Monday to negotiate an extension of government funding. Without a deal, a federal shutdown would begin on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Russia’s defence ministry said its forces had taken control of the village of Shandryholove in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

Gold, which tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments and during times of uncertainty, has climbed more than 43% so far this year.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index came in line with expectations on Friday, bolstering market confidence in potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve at its October and December meetings.

“The PCE data from last week was viewed as not standing in the way of an additional one or two Fed rate cuts … they continue to be a supportive factor for gold and silver,” Meger said.

Separately, Newmont said CEO Tom Palmer would retire by the year-end, after spending more than a decade with the world’s largest gold miner. Rival Barrick also announced the resignation of CEO Mark Bristow earlier in the day.

Elsewhere, spot silver climbed 1.9% to USD 46.85 per ounce, hitting a more than 14-year high. Platinum gained 1.5% to USD 1,592.65, a 12-year high, while Palladium fell 1.1% to USD 1,255.61.

(Reporting by Noel John and John Biju in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar and Sahal Muhammed)

Gold firms as inflation data keeps Fed rate cut bets alive

Gold gained on Friday after US inflation data came in line with expectations, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve may continue with interest rate cuts later this year.

Spot gold rose 0.8% to USD 3,778.62 per ounce as of 01:30 p.m. EDT (1730 GMT), after hitting a record USD 3,790.82 earlier in the week. The metal has risen about 2.5% this week.

US gold futures for December delivery settled 1% higher at USD 3,809

“Monthly PCE data is in line, though personal income and spending were a tenth above expectations. Nothing from this data will prevent the Fed from carrying on with another cautious rate cut at the October meeting,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

Data showed that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.7% year-on-year in August, in line with economists’ expectations in a Reuters poll.

Investors now see an 88% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% chance of another in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Markets will also watch remarks from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman later in the day for clues on the Fed’s stance.

Gold, a traditional safe haven, typically benefits from lower interest rates.

On the trade front, President Donald Trump announced a fresh round of tariffs on imported drugs, trucks and furniture, effective October 1.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 2.6% to USD 46.41 per ounce, hitting an over 14-year high, while palladium gained 2.8% to USD 1,284.77, putting it on track for a weekly gain.

Platinum rose 2.5% to USD 1,568.21, its highest in more than 12 years.

Analysts and traders note that silver and platinum are gaining momentum amid elevated gold prices, with investors turning to more affordable alternatives.

“Chinese President Xi’s pledge to cut net Chinese carbon emissions by 7-10% by 2035 has also spurred buying of silver which is used in solar cells,” Wong said.

He noted that sentiment was further supported by Freeport’s force majeure at the Grasberg copper mine.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas and Tasim Zahid)

Dollar set for second weekly gain amid US economic resilience

NEW YORK – The dollar fell but was still on course to notch a second straight week of gains against major peers on Friday after data continued to show US economic resilience, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cut interest rates.

The dollar was down 0.21% to 149.48 against the Japanese yen, on track for a fifth consecutive week of gains and trading near its highest level since August 1.

The euro was up 0.31% to USD 1.1701. It was on course to finish the week lower, snapping three straight weeks of gains.

US DATA TAKES STEAM OUT OF FED RATE CUT PRICING

US consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.6% in August, slightly higher than the 0.5% estimated by economists polled by Reuters.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose 0.3% last month, in line with expectations, US Commerce Department data showed.

“I think it’s pretty clear that stronger economic data has taken the steam out of the pricing for Fed rate cuts and that’s sort of narrowed the interest rate differential with other countries and pushed the dollar higher,” said John Velis, Americas FX and macro strategist at BNY in New York.

“We still think that hedging behavior is quite strong, so we still see lots of forward selling of dollars even while the US assets, particularly US equities, continue to gain influence from abroad, although that’s taken a little bit of a backseat this week as well to some degree. But I think it’s fairly clear that as Fed expectations go so will the dollar go in the short term,” Velis added.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.33% to 98.17. It was still on track for the second straight week of gains.

The two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, fell 1.8 basis points to 3.645%.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he sees limited risks of a big rise in either unemployment or inflation, letting the Fed balance its two goals as it debates further interest rate cuts.

Fed Vice-chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the central bank is close to achieving its 2% inflation target and that she believes decisive interest rate cuts are needed to ward off rising trouble in the job market.

Barkin and Bowman are the latest Fed officials to comment on the Fed’s decision last week to start cutting rates.

Traders are pricing in an 89.8% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting, down from nearly 92% probability a week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

“USD solidly back in range but less risk of disorderly unwind of shorts, based on positioning,” Bank of America analysts wrote in an investor note. “Pivotal jobs report ahead. Few near-term narratives to support the rest of G10.”

Data showed on Thursday that the US gross domestic product rose by an upwardly revised 3.8% from April through June, beating expectations.

The dollar was down 0.23% to 0.798 against the Swiss franc. It was still on track to finish the week higher, ending a run of six consecutive weeks of losses.

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh; Editing by Mark Potter and Marguerita Choy)

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