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LONDON/MOSCOW – OPEC+ could delay December’s planned increase to oil production by a month or more, four sources close to the matter told Reuters on Wednesday, citing concern about soft oil demand and rising supply.

The OPEC+ group combining the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies is scheduled to raise output by 180,000 barrels per day in December. It had already delayed the increase from October because of falling prices.

However, prices remain under pressure in part from weak demand, raising concern in the group about adding more supply. A decision to delay the increase could come as early as next week, two of the sources said.

“The December hike could be postponed as the market is not healthy enough,” one of the sources said.

The prospect of a further delay to the OPEC+ increase helped to lift oil prices by more than 2% on Wednesday. Even so, Brent crude is trading around USD 72 a barrel, not far above its lows for the year, reached in September.

OPEC and the Saudi government communications office did not respond immediately to requests for comment.

The office of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak declined to comment. Novak said this month that it was too early to judge whether the market would need more oil.

Three of the sources, who are people familiar with OPEC+ talks, said the December increase could be delayed for a month at least, while the fourth, an OPEC+ delegate, did not specify a time frame. All declined to be identified by name.

The planned increase of 180,000 bpd is a fraction of the 5.86 million bpd of output OPEC+ is holding back, equal to about 5.7% of global demand. OPEC+ agreed those cuts in separate steps since 2022 to support the market.

The December increase is due to come from the eight OPEC+ members who agreed in September to start a gradual unwinding of the group’s most recent layer of output cuts – a cut of 2.2 million bpd – from December 2024 into next year.

The remaining OPEC+ cuts of 3.66 million bpd will remain in place until the end of 2025.

OPEC+ ministers hold a full meeting of the group to decide policy on Dec. 1.

(Reporting by Alex Lawler, Olesya Astakhova and Dmitry Zhdannikov
Additional reporting by Maha El Dahan
Editing by Tomasz Janowski, David Evans and David Goodman)

Oil prices stabilised on Wednesday on industry data showing a surprise drop in US crude and gasoline inventories, following two previous sessions of losses on the prospect of hostilities easing in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures gained 21 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 71.33 a barrel by 0002 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 22 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 67.43 per barrel.

US crude oil and fuel stocks fell last week, market sources said on Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures.

Crude stocks dipped by 573,000 barrels in the week ended Oct. 25, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories lost 282,000 barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 1.46 million barrels, the sources said.

Nine analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 2.2 million-barrel rise in crude inventories.

Official US government data is scheduled to be released later on Wednesday.

The API report helped turn the tide on prices following a more than 6% drop in the combined previous two sessions.

Prices fell on Tuesday when an Axios reporter said on X that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would hold an imminent meeting with several ministers, the heads of the military and intelligence community about talks on a diplomatic solution to the war in Lebanon.

On Monday, prices lost about 6% after Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran over the weekend missed Tehran’s oil infrastructure.

(Reporting by Laila Kearney in New York; Editing by Sonali Paul)

Gold prices hit a record high on Tuesday, as uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election and the Middle East conflict, along with expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, boosted bullion’s appeal.

Spot gold was up 1% at USD 2,769.25 per ounce as of 10:17 a.m ET (1417 GMT), after hitting a record high of USD 2,772.42 earlier in the session.

US gold futures settled 0.9% higher at USD 2,781.1.

Bullion thrives in a low interest-rate environment and is considered a hedge against market volatilities. Gold prices have surged more than 34% so far this year.

Gold is supported by safe-haven bets as geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty continue, with Japan now being added into the mix on the political uncertainty front after the weekend election, said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Republican former US President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris are also caught in a tight race for the White House.

On the geopolitical front, at least 93 Palestinians were killed or missing in an Israeli strike in northern Gaza, the Gaza health ministry said.

Investors await a series of economic data, including ADP employment, US Personal Consumption Expenditures, and payrolls report to further gauge the Fed’s policy stance, with its next rate decision on Nov. 7.

Markets are currently pricing in a 98% chance for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in November.

“Gold should retain its upward bias and may even flirt with $2,800 in the days ahead, as long as U.S. election risks continue weighing on market sentiment, while Fed rate cut expectations remain intact,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group.

Gold prices’ rally is set to extend into 2025, as a favourable U.S. interest rate backdrop and geopolitical tensions continue to burnish its appeal, a Reuters poll showed.

However, buyers in India brushed off record high prices, making purchases for the Dhanteras and Diwali festivals.

Spot silver rose 1.9% to USD 34.32 per ounce. Platinum rose 1.6% to USD 1,049.10. Palladium rose 0.2% to USD 1,221.00, after hitting a 10-month high on sanction concerns on top producer Russia.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil and Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Sherin Varghese, Editing by Shilpi Majumdar and Shailesh Kuber)

HOUSTON – Oil prices tumbled 6% on Monday, or more than USD 4 a barrel, after Saturday’s retaliatory strike by Israel against Iran’s military bypassed oil and nuclear facilities, not disrupting energy supplies.

Brent futures LCOc1 settled at USD 71.42 a barrel, down USD 4.63 or 6.09%. WTI US crude futures CLc1 finished at USD 67.38 a barrel, $4.40 or 6.13%.

Both Brent and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures hit their lowest since Oct. 1 at the open.

“Obviously, this is a perfect example of a headline-driven market,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. “We still have a lot of geopolitical risk.”

Last week, the benchmarks gained 4% in volatile trade on uncertainty over the looming US election and the extent of Israel’s expected response to the Iranian missile attack of Oct. 1.

On Saturday, scores of Israeli jets completed three waves of strikes before dawn against missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran, the latest exchange between the Middle Eastern rivals.

The attacks were more tailored toward military targets, easing fears that Israel might attack Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure.

Citi lowered its Brent price target for the next three months to USD 70 a barrel from USD 74, factoring in a lower risk premium in the near term, analysts led by Max Layton said in a note.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in OPEC+ kept oil output policy unchanged last month, including a plan to start raising output from December. The group will meet on Dec. 1 ahead of a full meeting of OPEC+.

Tudor, Pickering Holt analyst Matt Portillo said WTI could trade much lower in the coming year.

“Absent a flare-up in the Middle East, our base case for WTI in 2025 remains USD 65 a barrel, with a bias lower if OPEC+ doesn’t show significant constraint on returning volumes to the market,” Portillo said.

Tensions remain high following the attack, however, and Iran will “use all available tools” to respond to Israel’s weekend attack, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba; Additional reporting by Arunima Kumar, Robert Harvey in London, Florence Tan and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by David Evans, David Holmes and David Gregorio)

WASHINGTON – Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday the country’s inflation is moderating, but the central bank will be vigilant to risks of an overshoot from unexpected weather-related and geopolitical events.

India’s economy is expanding at a solid clip with the balance of growth and inflation “well-poised,” Das said in an event hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

The economy’s resilience has given India’s central bank scope to focus on taming inflation and keeping it around its 4% target, said Das, who spoke as finance chiefs were meeting in Washington for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings.

While the central bank sets a 2% band both up and down around its 4% inflation target, it strives to align inflation to 4% and keep it “as close as possible” to the target, he said.

“Inflation is moderating in India. But we can’t take it for granted” due to upside risks that could arise from unexpected weather that affects crops, geopolitical events and supply bottlenecks, he said.

“Overall, the financial sector remains sound and resilient,” he said. “But we are certainly not complacent amid a rapidly changing environment.”

(Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Paul Simao)

WASHINGTON – Most Asian central banks have room to cut interest rates, as the start of the Us monetary easing cycle reduces fears of an unwelcome weakening of their currencies, a senior International Monetary Fund official said on Thursday.

But Krishna Srinivasan, the director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, said risks to Asia’s economic outlook were tilted to the downside on tentative signs that global demand could weaken.

“No one wins from trade fragmentation. We all pay for slow global growth,” particularly in Asia where many countries are integrated in global supply chains, he told a press briefing during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington.

The IMF expects Asia’s economies to expand 4.6% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025, remaining “the world’s engine of growth,” Srinivasan said.

Asia has also brought inflation down to low and stable rates faster than other regions, he said. “In emerging Asia, the disinflation process is actually complete.”

While some Asian central banks may have been reluctant to ease monetary policy before the Federal Reserve for fear of weakening their currencies, such concerns should have disappeared now that the US central bank has started cutting rates, he said.

But the environment could become tougher for Asia due to slowing US economic growth and weakening demand in China.

“Risks to the outlook are now relatively to the downside,” Srinivasan said. “Moreover, countries across the globe continue to implement trade restrictions at a rapid pace,” which could weigh on trade-reliant Asian economies, he added.

While Asian countries have the scope to ease monetary policy, their increasing public debt leaves many of them with less of an ability to loosen fiscal policy, he said.

“For most Asian countries, it’s time to start budgetary consolidation in earnest,” Srinivasan said.

(Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Paul Simao)