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Archives: Reuters Articles

Yen hits 8-week high, sterling drops after Bank of England rate cut

Yen hits 8-week high, sterling drops after Bank of England rate cut

NEW YORK – The yen touched an eight-week high versus the dollar on Thursday after a Bank of Japan policy board member advocated continued interest rate hikes, while sterling slid as the Bank of England cut rates.

The pound fell sharply after the Bank of England cut interest rates as expected, but forecast higher inflation and weaker growth, with two officials calling for an even larger rate cut.

Sterling later pared some of those losses, having touched a one-month high on Wednesday. It was last down 0.54% at USD 1.2438.

Money markets now price in around 67 basis points of further BoE easing by the end of the year.

“The pound’s losses may prove somewhat limited: the services-driven British economy is largely sheltered against trade war risks,” Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist with payments company Corpay in Toronto, said in a research note.

The dollar index was up against a basket of peers at 107.69, but it still hovered near the lowest level since the start of last week, with investors beginning to entertain prospects that a global trade war could be averted.

In the absence of tariff headlines, markets looked ahead to the release on Friday of key US monthly payrolls figures, the next major test for the US monetary policy outlook.

The dollar index hit a two-year high of 110.17 on January 13, but has since retreated 2%.

“Driving this correction have been several factors, the largest of which has probably been this week’s tariff news, where it looks like the Trump administration has been using tariffs for transactional not ideological purposes,” said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.

US President Donald Trump suspended planned tariff measures against Mexico and Canada this week, but imposed additional 10% levies on imports from China.

YEN STRENGTH

The yen strengthened as far as 151.81 per dollar – the strongest level since December 12 – in the Tokyo morning, after the BOJ’s Naoki Tamura said the central bank must raise rates to at least 1% or so in the latter half of fiscal 2025 with upward risks to prices rising.

Japan’s currency was last changing hands at 151.335 per dollar, up 0.82% on the previous day, paring some of the early gains after Tamura clarified that he didn’t mean that the neutral rate should be 1%.

“There seems to be a good amount of yen buying pressure today (Thursday). Not really sure what’s driving that, but it’s been very correlated to rates, and that’s breaking down just a little bit today,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York.

The market is currently pricing in a quarter-percentage-point BOJ rate hike by September.

“Tamura is known to be on the hawkish side,” although his comments initially “fired up yen longs,” said Shoki Omori, chief global desk strategist at Mizuho Securities.

Conversely, a quarter-percentage-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is fully priced in for July, with markets expecting a total of 46 basis points of reductions by the December meeting, according to LSEG data.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that while Trump wants lower interest rates, he will not ask the Fed to cut rates.

Canada’s loonie was at C$ 1.431 versus its US counterpart after rising to the highest level since December 17 at C$ 1.4270 overnight. The Mexican peso was down 0.45% at 20.474 per dollar.

The euro edged down 0.19% to USD 1.0382.

(Reporting by Hannah Lang in New York; additional reporting by Greta Rosen Fondahn and Kevin Buckland; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Mark Potter, Susan Fenton, Will Dunham, and Paul Simao)

 

Oil settles down after Trump repeats pledge to boost US supply

Oil settles down after Trump repeats pledge to boost US supply

Oil prices settled lower on Thursday after US President Donald Trump repeated a pledge to raise US oil production, unnerving traders a day after the country reported a much bigger-than-anticipated jump in crude stockpiles.

Brent crude futures fell 32 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at USD 74.29 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 42 cents, or 0.6%, to USD 70.61.

On Thursday, Trump repeated a pledge to boost US production, already the highest in the world, in a bid to lower oil prices and ease consumer inflation.

Oil prices gave up early gains after Trump’s comments. Still, analysts have questioned whether US oil producers will be willing to pump more barrels in the current market.

“There is no indication of accelerating US drilling activity,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, noting he was surprised by the market reaction to Trump’s comments.

Oil prices were also under pressure from swelling US crude inventories. Benchmarks fell 2% on Wednesday after US government data showed domestic crude stockpiles rose by 8.7 million barrels last week, well above analysts’ expectations of a 2 million-barrel increase.

Macquarie analysts said they expect another large build in US crude stocks this week.

TRADE SET TO REMAIN VOLATILE

Trading was volatile. Prices started the session higher after Saudi Arabia’s state oil company sharply raised prices for buyers in Asia. Prices also drew support from new US sanctions against individuals and entities for facilitating shipments of Iranian oil to China.

“The notice is out – if you’re a refiner or shipper moving Iranian oil, any part of it, you’re at risk of getting whacked by the Treasury,” Flynn said.

In the near-term, oil markets are expected to remain choppy, with global trade pressured by Trump’s rapidly changing decisions on tariffs and sanctions.

On Monday, Trump suspended his threat of steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but new duties on Chinese imports came into effect from Tuesday.

Trump reimposed a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran, yet also said he was open to a deal with Tehran.

“The only certainty is that comments from President Trump will continue to drive volatility in the oil market,” UBS’s Staunovo said.

Global benchmark Brent crude has tumbled over 8% since Trump took office on January 20, while WTI has dropped over 7%.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan; Additional reporting by Paul Carsten, Ahmad Ghaddar, Colleen Howe, and Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by David Goodman, Susan Fenton, Deepa Babington, and David Gregorio)

 

India eyes historic rate cut, global easing momentum mounts

India eyes historic rate cut, global easing momentum mounts

Investors are anticipating India’s first interest rate cut in nearly five years on Friday, which would be the latest move from major central banks around the world that points to a renewed desire to loosen policy and lower borrowing costs.

The obvious exceptions are the US Federal Reserve, which has paused its easing cycle, and the Bank of Japan, which is gradually raising rates, albeit from virtually zero.

But the Reserve Bank of India’s decision comes amid growing concern worldwide over the potential damage to economic activity and growth from US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

The Bank of England and Bank of Mexico cut interest rates on Thursday, and there was an element of dovish surprise to both – the BoE’s decision to lower rates by 25 basis points was expected but two policymakers voted to cut 50 bps, while Banxico said its 50 bps cut could be repeated at future meetings.

US Treasury yields, meanwhile, have fallen below 4.50% as worries about US growth bubble up again, and a soft employment report on Friday will bring 4.00% closer into view than 5.00%.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the Reserve Bank of India to cut its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% in Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s first monetary policy review, as it attempts to shore up flagging growth.

India isn’t in Trump’s immediate line of protectionist fire but policymakers won’t be complacent. India’s trade surplus with the US has doubled in five years to the current USD 45 billion, and the rupee’s persistent weakness ties the RBI’s hands in the event of further tariff-led appreciation of the dollar.

The rupee is one of the worst-performing emerging currencies against the dollar this year, trading at an all-time low below 87.00 per dollar. A rate cut is widely expected so it should be in the rupee’s price, leaving all eyes on the new governor’s guidance.

Asia’s economic calendar on Friday includes foreign exchange reserves from several countries including China, inflation data from Taiwan and, perhaps more importantly in the current climate, January trade figures from Taiwan also.

Taiwan’s trade deficit with the US last year widened to USD 74 billion, meaning it has virtually quadrupled in six years.

Taiwan said this week it will support companies that plan to relocate to the United States, including helping them find partners. Taiwan is home to chipmaker TSMC, which has a USD 65 billion investment in the US to build factories in Arizona.

Wall Street’s main indices essentially trod water on Thursday, offering little direction to Asia on Friday. But Amazon shares fell as much as 5% in after-hours trade as investors gave the company’s Q4 earnings an initial thumbs down.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Friday:

– India rate decision

– Taiwan trade (January)

– China FX reserves

(By Jamie McGeever, editing by Deepa Babington)

 

European stocks step out from US shadow in 2025, but for how long

European stocks step out from US shadow in 2025, but for how long

MILAN – European stocks have staged their best performance in a decade against Wall Street in the first six weeks of 2025, but hopes among some they can finally end years of underperformance could yet be dashed by long-standing structural challenges.

Seizing on extreme company valuation gaps, investors are piling into European equities, eyeing several potential catalysts that might mean this rally is different from those before, which have typically fizzled fairly quickly.

Fund inflows into European stocks reached their second-highest in 25 years in January and major benchmarks continue to hit record highs, beating their US counterparts, as investors look for the region’s stars to finally align.

The hope is that Germany might loosen its fiscal policy after elections this month, tensions in Ukraine could subside and US tariffs might end up being less severe than feared.

And the recent rout in stocks of Wall Street’s artificial intelligence megacaps on the emergence of cheaper Chinese rivals suggests market leadership could expand to neglected sectors, in which Europe is particularly strong.

Gains in Frankfurt, Zurich, London, Milan, and Paris so far this year have propelled the broader STOXX 600 up by more than 5.5%, while the S&P 500 has risen only 2.7%.

LEG UP

Marc Halperin, portfolio manager at Edmond de Rothschild AM, is upbeat, especially given the stretched investor positioning.

“Where is the marginal seller? It’s hard to find because everyone is today largely underweight on Europe,” said Halperin, who in December increased his eurozone cyclical stock holdings.

Halperin anticipates a rebound in leading indicators, potential interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve pausing, as well as a possible Ukraine ceasefire reducing energy costs.

“Europe is focused on sectors like automotive, which have significant room to grow because they are depressed. This strong performance seen since the start of the year could last a little more in the weeks and months to come,” he added.

Research firm SentimenTrader notes that several technical metrics that reflect how broad a rally is – such as the 10-day advance/decline ratio and stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving averages – have spiked.

This draws a pattern that historically has preceded a period of gains over the next one to three months, it said.

Nordea strategist Hertta Alava, meanwhile, also anticipates further outperformance in the coming months as valuations are attractive and earnings growth is accelerating, which will narrow the gap with US companies.

At 14 times expected earnings, the MSCI Europe trades at a near record discount of 37.5% to the MSCI USA, LSEG data shows.

Since the late 1980s, US stocks have increased by 25 times, while European stocks have risen by less than six.

However, any further surge is unlikely to truly challenge Wall Street’s long-term dominance. Europe has seen occasional rallies over the past 40 years, but these have tended to be short-lived, especially after the global financial crisis.

Michele Morganti, strategist at Generali Investments, also notes lower growth in US tech earnings and possible bolder China stimulus measures might allow for a shift towards Europe.

But structural challenges remain, he said, adding: “Europe still faces issues, such as less energy independence, poor governance … fragmented energy and capital markets, lower population growth, and lower tech investments”.

European earnings growth this year is expected to accelerate significantly, to 7.9% from just 1% last year and following a 3.9% decline in 2023, LSEG IBES forecast show.

In contrast, while US earnings growth is expected to increase at a slower rate this year, it is still anticipated to be higher than Europe’s, at 14.1%, from over 10% last year

(Reporting by Danilo Masoni; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Alexander Smith)

 

Gold adds to record rally as trade war anxiety lifts demand

Gold adds to record rally as trade war anxiety lifts demand

Gold prices continued their record run on Wednesday, as investors sought the safe-haven asset amid escalating concerns about a US-China trade war and the potential impact on economic growth.

Spot gold was up 0.8% at USD 2,865.61 per ounce by 01:59 p.m. ET (1859 GMT), after hitting a record high of USD 2,882.16 earlier in the session.

US gold futures settled 0.6% higher at USD 2,893 per ounce.

“Gold continues to be largely influenced by trade uncertainties … the tariffs with China and the retaliation has the market on edge, so safe-haven flows remain the dominant factor,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Earlier this week, China retaliated by imposing tariffs on US goods in response to new US tariffs, escalating the trade war, while US President Donald Trump expressed no urgency in speaking with Chinese President Xi Jinping to alleviate tensions.

Meanwhile, the US Postal Service said it will resume accepting all inbound mail and packages from China and Hong Kong on Wednesday, a day after temporarily suspending such service.

Three US Federal Reserve officials warned Trump’s trade tariffs could drive inflation, with one suggesting uncertainty over price outlooks warrants slower interest rate cuts.

The ADP National Employment report showed the US economy added 183,000 jobs in the private sector last month, compared with economists’ estimate of a rise of 150,000.

“Employment is going to be an important focus this week … but I don’t think that anything is going to materially impact the Fed expectations on the policy, unless it’s really out of line,” Grant said.

Investors are looking to the US payrolls report on Friday for further clues on the outlook for rates. Bullion is considered an inflation hedge, but higher rates could dampen its appeal as the metal yields no interest.

Spot silver rose 0.8% to USD 32.36 per ounce, platinum gained 1.8% to USD 980.95 and palladium added 0.3% to USD 990.75.

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrea Ricci, Chris Reese, and Shounak Dasgupta)

 

Dollar slides as trade war risk recedes, yen rallies

Dollar slides as trade war risk recedes, yen rallies

NEW YORK – The US dollar fell to its lowest in more than a week on Wednesday as investor nerves about a global trade war abated, while the Japanese yen rallied on the back of strong wage data.

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six peers, was last down 0.435% at 107.58, having earlier touched its lowest since January 27 at 107.29.

As US President Donald Trump looked poised to impose 25% import tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the dollar on Monday jumped as much as 1.3% to 109.88. It has since fallen around 2% after both Mexico and Canada won a one-month reprieve by beefing up border security, although the United States did increase levies on China.

“In particular, the market was relieved that China didn’t hit back overly hard, and that shows that China is willing to tolerate high US tariffs for the time being,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive.

The euro rose 0.24% to USD 1.041 after dropping as much as 2.3% on Monday on fears about the global impact of tariffs and a possible extension of levies to the European Union.

The dollar fell most sharply on Wednesday against the yen, which was boosted by strong Japanese wage data and comments from a Bank of Japan official hinting at further rate hikes.

The US currency was last 1.19% lower at 152.525, its lowest since December.

“This (Wednesday) morning’s dollar pullback looks like an extension of recent trends, with markets continuing to price out tariff risks from FX markets,” said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe.

The dollar extended its losses against the yen after data showed that US services sector activity unexpectedly slowed in January amid cooling demand.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday its non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) slipped to 52.8 last month from 54.0 in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI edging up to 54.3.

Data showed Japan’s December inflation-adjusted real wages rose 0.6% year-on-year thanks to a wintertime bonus bump.

That left traders increasing bets on more BOJ rate hikes this year, with just over 30 basis points priced in by the year-end.

Sterling was up 0.2% after hitting its highest in a month at USD 1.255.

YUAN DIPS ON CHINA TARIFFS

Trump’s imposition of new, 10% tariffs on China knocked the yuan slightly on Monday as markets returned from an extended Lunar New Year break.

The yuan fell 0.47% in onshore trading. Its gains were capped by the People’s Bank of China setting a stronger-than-expected midpoint rate, around which the currency is allowed to trade in a 2% band.

Investors had watched the fixing for clues on whether Beijing would allow the yuan to weaken to blunt the impact of the trade measures.

China on Tuesday imposed its own tariffs on imports from the United States in a swift response, and Trump said the same day he was in no hurry to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping to try to defuse the situation.

(Reporting by Hannah Lang in New York; additional reporting by Harry Robertson in London and Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Kim Coghill, Angus MacSwan, Will Dunham, and Kevin Liffey)

 

More crowded US dollar trade ramps up expectations for euro parity

More crowded US dollar trade ramps up expectations for euro parity

BENGALURU – A crowded strong US dollar trade is set to get more bunched up in coming months, with near one-third of currency strategists polled by Reuters now expecting the euro to fall to parity with the dollar or below versus only one-fifth last month.

The greenback has been on a rampage since late September, soaring over 7% against a basket of major currencies and hammering the euro down to almost USD 1.01 on Feb. 3 – just a whisker away from parity, a milestone last hit in November 2022.

Recent data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission also showed swathes of speculators piling on “bullish” dollar trade, stretching net-long bets to a near-decade high last month.

That strength will not falter any time soon, according to FX strategists in a Feb. 3-5 Reuters survey, with an 85% majority – 40 of 47 – saying current positioning would hold steady or even see a further increase in net longs by the end of February.

“The view on the dollar is bullish predominantly due to the escalating trade conflict, with our baseline forecast of the euro testing parity in Q1,” said Meera Chandan, co-head global FX strategy at J.P. Morgan.

Chandan added that higher bond yields, robust US economic growth and a still-strong equity market provided additional support to that forecast.

Continued US economic resilience and President Donald Trump’s potentially inflationary tariffs and tax-cut policies have put the brakes on market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts, helping lock in the currency’s gains.

“Beyond Q1, US exceptionalism will eventually run out of steam which should cause the dollar to weaken over the longer run, but conviction on when this turning point will happen is quite low,” Chandan added.

Some analysts also cited Trump’s erratic policy announcements, making forecasting more difficult than usual – year-ahead euro estimates are the most varied since May.

‘POLITICAL KRYPTONITE’

“We’ve seen just how sensitive the market is to headlines every day as the clouds of tariff uncertainty hang over the market. If we do get a trade war and tit-for-tat, then that has upside inflation and negative growth implications, and inflation right now is political kryptonite,” said Alex Cohen, FX strategist at Bank of America.

The latest poll found near one-third of FX strategists – 20 of 66 – seeing euro-dollar tumbling to parity or lower in their three-, six- or 12-month point forecasts – a considerably sharper tilt towards dollar dominance than in a January survey.

The median survey view was for the euro EUR= to hold steady over the coming three and six months at USD 1.03, and strengthen about 2% in the second half of the year to USD 1.05 at end-January. The weakest euro forecast of USD 0.97 was also the lowest in two years.

After years of calling for dollar weakness, often incorrectly, analysts have started showing signs of a reversal in the past few months.

Nearly half saw the euro, also hit by expectations for a continued series of European Central Bank rate cuts, trading weaker in the coming six months than they did in the January survey.

Fed policymakers have echoed the need for slower rate cuts, leading interest rate futures to currently price just one more this year, wavering on a second – a far cry from nearly double the amount markets bet on last quarter.

“We’re in a place where the dollar is priced for everything positive, and as long as those things don’t change, we’re not going to fall back too much. It’s going to be very choppy from here – a lot of volatility without necessarily going anywhere,” said Dan Tobon, head of G10 FX at Citi.

“Markets won’t really pull back too deeply on the dollar now – we still have tariff risks for the next couple of months and US growth outperformance should keep the Fed relatively more hawkishly priced compared to other major central banks.”

(Reporting by Sarupya Ganguly; polling and analysis by Purujit Arun, Aman Kumar Soni, Jaiganesh Mahesh, and Pranoy Krishna; editing by Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Mark Heinrich, and Kevin Liffey)

 

Oil down as US crude inventories swell, traders worry about China-US trade

Oil down as US crude inventories swell, traders worry about China-US trade

Oil prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday as a large build in US crude and gasoline stockpiles signaled weaker demand, while worries about a new China-US trade war fueled fears of softer economic growth.

Brent crude futures settled down USD 1.59, or 2.09%, to USD 74.61 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude was down USD 1.67, or 2.3%, to USD 71.03.

US crude oil inventories rose sharply last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, as refiners facing soft gasoline demand did maintenance work.

“Refiners just don’t have a call for crude right now,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital in New York. “They’re racing into maintenance, given the slack demand we’re seeing for gasoline,” he added.

Concern over a new trade war between the US and China, the world’s largest energy importer, also pressured prices.

On Tuesday, China announced tariffs on imports of US oil, liquefied natural gas and coal in retaliation for US levies on Chinese exports, pushing WTI down 3% at its session low, the lowest since Dec. 31.

“China putting a tariff on US imports reduces the demand for those commodities, which need to be redirected into another market,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

On Wednesday, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian urged OPEC members to unite against possible US sanctions, after Trump said he would restore the “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran that he enacted in his first term.

Trump drove Iran’s oil exports to near zero during part of his first term after reimposing sanctions to curtail the country’s nuclear program.

“Should these sanctions be reimposed, the resulting supply squeeze could sustain the upward momentum in oil prices, particularly amid slower than expected supply adjustments from OPEC+ producers,” said Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at brokerage Pepperstone.

Tehran’s oil exports brought in USD 53 billion in 2023 and USD 54 billion a year earlier, according to EIA estimates. Output during 2024 was running at its highest level since 2018, based on OPEC data.

“The oil market is now caught between increasing fears that an escalating trade war will damage global oil demand growth on the one hand and possible sudden disruption of Iranian oil exports,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York, Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, Siyi Liu in Singapore, and Laila Kearney in New York. Editing by Christina Fincher, Mark Potter, Jane Merriman, David Gregorio, and Rod Nickel)

 

Seeing the positives in fog of uncertainty

Seeing the positives in fog of uncertainty

Famous last words, but an air of resilience is enveloping world markets.

Fears of a global trade war are rife, shares in some of the US ‘Big Tech’ firms are slumping, safe-haven gold has climbed to another all-time high and the Japanese yen is marching higher. Yet risk assets refuse to lie down.

This resilience – or ‘bouncebackability’ – can partly be explained by ample market liquidity, and lower dollar and US Treasury yields. It’s a combination that loosens US and global financial conditions and spurs risk-taking activity across markets.

There’s a danger, however, that investors’ benign view of falling US bond yields suddenly flips, and they see it has a worrying reflection of deteriorating growth or a weakening labor market. Or both.

If that happens, the air of resilience could quickly become an air of despondency. US labor market data on Friday, or an unexpected announcement from US President Donald Trump on tariffs may provide the trigger, but until then, investors’ glass seems to be half full.

Shares in Google’s parent company Alphabet fell 7% on Wednesday – their worst day in a year – and AMD shares tumbled 6%, yet the Nasdaq recovered opening losses to end the day slightly higher. The ‘FAANG’ index of major tech shares closed in the green to end near its recent all-time high.

Attention in Asia remains fixed on China and its next response to Trump’s 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, after it formally launched a dispute at the World Trade Organization. Chinese markets were relatively calm on Wednesday after the Lunar New Year holiday, but the yuan is under pressure.

The spread between the central bank’s daily dollar/yuan fixing and the spot market rate popped back up, and a further widening of only 4 basis points would take it back to recent historic highs just above 14 bps.

Elsewhere in currencies, the yen rallied more than 1% on Wednesday to an eight-week high against the dollar after strong national wage figures prompted investors to price in tighter Bank of Japan monetary policy.

That move could accelerate if BOJ board member Naoki Tamura, who has called for raising short-term rates at least to 1.0%, delivers customary hawkish remarks in a speech and news conference on Thursday.

Japan’s earnings season rolls on and among the companies reporting on Thursday are Mitsubishi, Nikon and Nippon Steel. Auto shares could be sensitive to further fallout from the news that the proposed Nissan-Honda merger may not go through.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Thursday:

– Australia trade (December)

– Thailand inflation (January)

– South Korea current account (December)

(By Jamie McGeever)

DeepSeek and Trump: How hedge funds navigated a turbulent start to 2025

DeepSeek and Trump: How hedge funds navigated a turbulent start to 2025

LONDON/NEW YORK – Hedge funds started 2025 buoyed by choppier markets driven by uncertainty over new US President Donald Trump’s policies and a tumble in tech-darling Nvidia as Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek emerged, sources told Reuters.

Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s biggest hedge funds, posted gains of 8.2% last month in its macro flagship fund Pure Alpha, beating the main stock indexes.

A global tech rout at the start of last week was followed by volatility ahead of Trump’s weekend announcement of sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, kicking off a trade war that could hurt economic growth internationally.

Trump delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Monday by one month, fueling wild swings in currency, bond, and share markets.

Despite the turmoil, stock-picking hedge funds that take bets based on company fundamentals recorded an average 2.6% return, their best month since February 2024, given a broader market rally, a Goldman Sachs prime brokerage note sent to clients on Tuesday showed.

Some technology-focused long/short equity hedge funds managed to navigate the tech rout.

SoMa Equity Partners rose 4.73% last month, helped by long positions in Roblox, Wix, Uber Technologies, and Elastic, a source familiar with the matter said. The fund did not have exposure to chipmakers. Shannon River also went up 2.46%, according to preliminary data, two sources said.

Systematic equity funds returned 2.71% on average, the Goldman note also showed.

Stock markets in the United States and Europe ended January near record highs, as did MSCI’s World Stock Index.

Hedge funds that follow a variety of strategies also ended the month higher. Daniel Loeb’s Third Point flagship TP offshore fund was up 3.3%.

Citadel’s equity fund posted a 2.7% return in January, while its flagship Wellington fund rose 1.4%, a source familiar with the matter said on Tuesday, declining to be identified because the information was private.

Business Insider reported the Wellington result on Monday.

All Citadel’s five investment strategies posted positive performances last month, the source added.

Founded by investor Ken Griffin, Citadel had USD 65 billion in assets under management as of Jan. 1.

Billionaire investor Cliff Asness’s AQR Capital Management’s systematic stock fund – the Delphi Long-Short Equity strategy – returned a net 3.5% in January, said another source close to the matter. It benefited from trades in developed equity markets and by picking less risky stocks, the source added.

The USD 2.5 billion stock strategy is part of the USD 123 billion hedge fund.

Winton’s multi-strategy quantitative fund, which trades many different asset classes systematically, finished January up 0.3%, another source said.

Fund name Jan % net return
Citadel Tactical 2.7
Citadel Equities 2.7
Citadel Global Fixed Income 1.9
AQR Apex Strategy 2.5
AQR Delphi L/S Equity 3.5
Winton Multi-Strategy 0.3
Transtrend Diversified 0.9
Citadel Wellington 1.4
SoMa Equity 4.7
Shannon River 2.46
Pure Alpha 18% vol 8.2
Third Point offshore 3.3

(Reporting by Nell Mackenzie in London and Carolina Mandl in New York; Additional reporting by Herbst-Bayliss; Editing by Mark Porter and Stephen Coates)

 

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