Bond yields slide as US growth fears, tech rout snowball

Is the US economy beginning to roll over?

The culmination of recent data misses, escalating trade tensions and powerful asset price swings suggests investors may be beginning to contemplate such a scenario. Even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday warned that the economy may be more “brittle” under the surface than headline numbers show.

If so, Asian and emerging markets are in for a rocky ride, no matter how their domestic economies are performing. The widespread stock market decline in these countries on Tuesday – MSCI’s Asia ex-Japan and emerging indexes, Chinese and Japanese benchmarks all fell more than 1% – points in this direction.

Figures from the US on Tuesday showed that consumer confidence in February slumped the most in three and a half years while inflation expectations surged, the latest in a string of indicators lately – including retail sales and business activity indices – that have raised red flags.

The two-year Treasury yield hit its lowest level since before November’s US presidential election and the 10-year yield fell almost 10 basis points. Rates futures markets are now pricing in at least another two quarter-point Fed cuts this year, starting in July.

Lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar are often springboards for Asian and emerging markets, but not when they’re being depressed by fears that growth is flagging and more analysts are advising clients to trim their risk exposure.

Wall Street ended mixed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq sinking more than 1% as the ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks – the undisputed market kings over the last two years – fell sharply again.

The ‘Mag 7’ are now down 13% from their December peak, putting them into ‘correction’ territory. It’s worth noting that they were in bear market territory last summer, plunging more than 20% in barely a month, so they have shown remarkable powers of resilience.

Can they recover, and lift the rest of the market, again? Perhaps, but Nvidia’s earnings after the market close on Wednesday will be crucial.

Most assets other than bonds and a few notable currencies fell on Tuesday as investors cashed in on even their winning bets. Gold, traditionally a safe-haven play, fell 1.5% while bitcoin shed 6% and oil fell 3%.

The calendar in Asia on Wednesday includes GDP from Taiwan, Australian inflation, industrial production from Singapore, and an interest rate decision from Thailand.

The Bank of Thailand is expected to keep its key interest rate on hold at 2.25% and cut only once this year to preserve a policy buffer amid growing global uncertainties, according to a Reuters poll. Swaps markets are pricing in 50 bps of cuts this year.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Wednesday:

– Thailand interest rate decision

– Taiwan GDP (2024 revised, 2025 outlook)

– Australia CPI inflation (January)

(By Jamie McGeever, editing by Deepa Babington)

Gold hits new record high on tariff worries, exchange-traded fund inflows

Gold prices surged to a record high on Monday, driven by safe-haven demand amid concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, with additional support coming from inflows into the world’s top gold-backed exchange-traded fund.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to USD 2,947.48 an ounce as of 01:55 p.m. ET (1854 GMT). It hit USD 2,956.15 earlier in the session — its eleventh record high in 2025.

US gold futures settled 0.3% higher at USD 2,963.20.

US dollar index touched its lowest level since December 10 earlier in the session, making bullion more affordable for buyers using other currencies.

“Investors believe that in the coming weeks and months or longer than that gold prices are going to continue to appreciate,” said Jim Wyckoff, a senior market analyst at Kitco Metals.

“The path of least resistance for gold remains sideways to higher and as long as uncertainty persists, gold is likely to continue rising.”

US President Donald Trump warned of imminent new tariffs last week. These plans are broadly viewed as inflationary and capable of sparking trade wars, thereby increasing the demand for safe-haven assets like bullion.

SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, said its holdings rose to 904.38 metric tons on Friday, the highest since August 2023.

Prices holding above USD 2,950 per ounce are drawing investor focus toward the USD 3,000 mark, with the metal up more than 12% in 2025.

Investors will watch Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

The Fed is likely to wait until next quarter before cutting rates again, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who previously expected a March cut.

Also, on the radar are speeches from at least nine US central bank officials this week, who are expected to reinforce a cautious stance on further rate cuts.

Spot silver fell 0.7% to USD 32.32 an ounce, platinum shed 0.7% to USD 962.70 and palladium lost 2.6% to USD 944.19.

(Reporting by Daksh Grover in Bengaluru. Editing by Jane Merriman, Krishna Chandra Eluri, and Alan Barona)

Hedge funds exit tech, media stocks at fastest pace in six months, Goldman Sachs says

LONDON – Hedge funds exited US tech and media stocks in the two weeks to February 21 at the fastest pace in six months, according to Goldman Sachs, just as Nvidia NVDA.O, one of the biggest tech firms by market capitalization, readies to report earnings.

Nvidia’s profit report this week is seen as a bellwether of the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) industry. The AI and graphics chipmaker is the world’s second most valuable company, with a 6.3% weight on the S&P 500, according to LSEG. Its shares have skyrocketed over 550% over the last two years.

Speculators “aggressively” dumped both long and short positions in AI-related equipment, media, and communications equipment companies, according to a note sent to Goldman Sachs clients on Friday.

A short position expects an asset price to fall while a long, or bullish, position expects it to rise.

Stock hedge funds, which usually mix long and short bets in their trading strategies, last week lost money on their short wagers but made money on the parts of their portfolios holding long bets, said the note.

While stock pickers finished the week flat, systematic traders returned 0.36% between February 14-20.

US stocks tumbled on Friday in the wake of gloomy economic reports. Some analysts and traders said that the expiration of options positions worth USD 2.7 trillion also added further pressure.

ASIA BULLS

Hedge funds also bought developed and emerging market Asia stocks at the quickest pace in five months, Goldman Sachs said, with Asia now the only region globally where the balance of hedge fund trades is long rather than short.

“China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong are by far the most net bought markets on our Prime book [year to date],” said the note.

About 8% of hedge fund portfolio positions hold the stock of companies in Asian developed markets, while net allocation to Asia’s emerging markets stands at 13.3%, the note said, among the highest levels for both in the past year.

(Reporting by Nell Mackenzie; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Rachna Uppal)

US yields slip after decent two-year note auction, ahead of inflation data

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields were slightly down on Monday, with benchmark 10-year yields hitting their lowest in more than two months amid good results on a USD 69 billion two-year note auction.

Markets are waiting for inflation data that could help gauge the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut this year.

Analysts saw a two-year auction as solid, with the note priced at a rate below the expected yield at the bid deadline, suggesting strong demand. Indirect bids, which include demand from foreign central banks, surged to a record 85.5% from the prior 65.0% and the 67.6% average, according to analysts from Action Economics.

On the economic data front, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected on Friday. Later this week, investors will also get the second estimate of fourth-quarter growth figures in the US

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell 2.2 basis points (bps) to 4.398%, after earlier falling to 4.389%, the lowest since December 17. The yield on the 30-year bond slipped 1.3 bps to 4.656%.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 21.6 basis points, flattening from 22.9 basis points late on Friday.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, dipped 2.8 bps to 4.166%. Earlier, it hit the lowest since February 5 on Monday.

According to the CME’s Fed watch tool, the highest probabilities for the first rate cut of the year are between June and July. Markets estimate a higher possibility of a second cut between October and December, according to the tool.

Markets are attentive to any sign of a cooling economy after the S&P Global Survey showed on Friday a sharp decrease in US business activity in February.

Bob Brusca, chief economist at Fact and Opinion Economics, said markets are very optimistic about the interest rate trajectory.

“No one is considering that inflation has slowed, but (it) has been above target for a long time, so interest rate cuts should not be a done deal,” he said.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.412%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.4% a year for the next decade.

“The labor market continues to be strong, and I don’t see a lot of evidence of the ‘residual seasonality’ cited by Powell,” Brusca said, referring to seasonal patterns appearing in data that have already been seasonally adjusted.

(Reporting by Tatiana Bautzer in New York; Editing by Nia Williams and Nick Zieminski)

Oil settles higher on fresh Iran sanctions, Iraq commitment to OPEC+

Oil prices settled higher on Monday as fresh US sanctions on Iran and a commitment to compensate for overproduction by Iraq added to concerns of near-term supply tightness, helping the market recover some of Friday’s steep losses.

Brent crude futures settled up 35 cents, or 0.5%, at USD 74.78 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 30 cents, or 0.4%, to USD 70.70.

On Friday Brent notched its lowest close since February 6 while WTI had its lowest settlement so far this year.

On Monday, the US Treasury imposed a fresh round of sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry, hitting brokers, tanker operators, and shippers who sell and transport Iranian petroleum.

That might have had a modest impact on oil prices, along with the Iraqi oil ministry’s reaffirmation of its commitment to the OPEC+ group’s supply agreement, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

He cautioned, however, that Iranian crude oil exports remain elevated. “Time will tell if (the sanctions) impact exports,” he said.

Iraq said it would present an updated plan to compensate for any overproduction of its OPEC+ quotas in recent months. Iraq on Sunday said it will export 185,000 barrels per day from Kurdistan’s oilfields through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline once oil shipments resume.

Oil prices were bound to recover from the prior session’s steep selloff, when expectations of the resumption in northern Iraqi exports and of an end to the war in Ukraine pulled benchmarks more than USD 2 lower, Commodity Context analyst Rory Johnston said.

The market structure has also flashed signs of near-term supply tightness, he added. The premium of front-month Brent futures over the next month’s contract was at its highest on Monday since February 11, having climbed steadily over the past week.

Others cautioned oil prices could stay under pressure from talks to end the Ukraine war, which could pave the way for more Russian oil onto the market, and a slew of US tariff measures, which could weigh on economic activity and crude oil demand.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday the US is close to a minerals deal with Ukraine as he and French President Emmanuel Macron held talks that covered prospects for ending the Ukraine war despite stark differences on how to proceed.

Trump said Washington is ‘on time’ with tariffs against Canada and Mexico, responding to a question about the deadline ending a previous pause on such action which expires next week.

“We’re just clearing out room to trade lower and I would be cautious if I was a buyer in the market today,” Mizuho analyst Robert Yawger said.

“Just sitting here, waiting for the next big event to happen, and obviously there are plenty of big ones out there that could hit any moment.”

(Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein; Additional reporting by Mohi Narayan and Emily Chow; Editing by David Goodman, Sharon Singleton, Bill Berkrot, and David Gregorio)

Peace hopes pierce gloom, but safety trades dominate

World markets are at a delicate juncture as a string of unexpectedly soft economic indicators intensify US growth concerns, just as rising global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty are already clouding the investment landscape.

Stocks are feeling the heat and the dollar is under pressure too, while safe-haven assets like Treasuries and gold – especially gold – are attracting strong demand.

Investors on Monday initially welcomed Germany’s election result and gave a thumbs up to the new government’s ‘pro-growth’ policies, but the early bounce in Europe faded and Asian bourses were a sea of red.

Wall Street managed to erase some losses after US President Donald Trump said G7 nations are united in their resolve to see an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, and that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin are in “serious discussions” about achieving that goal.

But Trump later repeated his commitment to slapping tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico soon, and stocks stumbled again.

The Asian calendar on Tuesday includes an interest rate decision from the Bank of Korea, trade figures from Thailand and Hong Kong, and Taiwanese industrial production figures for January.

Economists expect the BOK to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on Tuesday, after unexpectedly standing pat last month as policymakers waited for domestic political turmoil to stabilize before easing further.

Economists polled by Reuters expect Tuesday’s cut to be followed by a further 50 points of easing this year. Money markets are a little less dovish, pricing in only two full quarter-point cuts this year.

Industrial production in Taiwan ended last year on a high, boosted by seasonal factors and perhaps firms accelerating production ahead of potential US tariffs. The 20% year-on-year rise in December was the fastest growth in five years, and is unlikely to be repeated in January.

The bigger issue for markets right now, however, is the deterioration in US economic numbers. Having convinced themselves that the ‘soft landing’ was assured, investors are now entertaining the possibility that the economy may be in the early stages of rolling over.

Citi’s US economic surprises index is now negative, and the lowest since the Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a 50-basis point cut last September. It has been mostly falling since the November presidential election.

Two more quarter-point cuts from the Fed this year are now fully priced into the US rates futures curve, and options market activity may also be pointing in the same direction. S&P 500 option volumes hit an all-time high of 4.74 million contracts on Friday, according to CBOE, with demand for ‘puts’ rising.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Tuesday:

– South Korea interest rate decision

– Taiwan industrial production (January)

– BoE, Fed, ECB policymakers speak at BoE conference

(By Jamie McGeever, editing by Bill Berkrot)

Gold eases from record high on profit-taking, eyes eighth weekly gain

Gold prices eased on Friday as investors booked profits from the previous session’s record high, but were set for an eighth straight weekly gain, driven by strong safe-haven demand amid concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans.

Spot gold shed 0.1% to USD 2,939.63 an ounce as of 02:24 a.m. ET (1924 GMT). Bullion has gained around 1.9% this week after rising to a record USD 2,954.69 on Thursday.

US gold futures settled 0.1% lower at USD 2,953.20.

“It’s just a classical movement of new all-time highs and profit-taking… (but) the fundamentals for gold remain solid,” said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold.

Prices have shattered two record highs this week to trade above USD 2,950 an oz, as uncertainties surrounding global economic growth and political instability have underscored investor appetite for bullion, which has risen 11.5% so far in 2025.

“Demand for gold is currently being driven primarily by western investors and central banks. ETF investors appear to be jumping on the bandwagon,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

Trump’s fresh bout of tariff plans announced earlier this week includes duties on lumber and forest products, on top of previously announced plans to impose duties on imported cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.

This comes after the imposition of an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum.

Gold’s safe-haven role is not fully realized yet as the shift from riskier assets to safer ones is not significant, with money still on the sidelines, Ebkarian said.

Investors are also monitoring the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory for clues, given that Trump’s policies are viewed as inflationary. Higher inflation could compel the Fed to maintain high interest rates, thus reducing the allure of non-yielding gold.

Spot silver was down 0.9% at USD 32.64 an ounce and palladium dipped 0.7% to USD 970.45. Both metals were headed for weekly gains.

Platinum shed 1.1% to USD 967.40 and eyed a weekly decline.

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel, Marguerita Choy, and Mohammed Safi Shamsi)

Oil settles down USD 2, posting weekly loss as Mideast risk premium fades

HOUSTON – Oil prices settled down more than USD 2 a barrel on Friday, posting a weekly decline as investors grappled with a fading Middle East risk premium alongside uncertainty about a potential peace deal in Ukraine.

Brent futures settled down USD 2.05, or 2.68%, to USD 74.43 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude settled down USD 2.08, or 2.87%, to USD 70.40.

Brent closed 0.4% lower on the week, while US crude futures posted a 0.5% weekly loss.

The relative calm in the Middle East as the Gaza ceasefire held has reduced risk in the market, said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital in New York.

Later in the day, analysts also pointed to media reports indicating that researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China said they discovered a new coronavirus in bats. Oil first slipped around USD 2 a barrel when those reports surfaced, according to analysts.

Investors also continued to weigh an uptick in US crude oil stockpiles, reported on Thursday, as seasonal maintenance at refineries led to lower processing, the Energy Information Administration said.

US energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a fourth week in a row to the highest level since June, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in a report on Friday.

The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by four to 592 in the week to February 21.

Traders kept an eye on potential oil supply disruptions, however, which capped some losses.

Russia said Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil flows, a major route for crude exports from Kazakhstan, were reduced by 30-40% on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station.

Oil flows from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield via CPC are uninterrupted, Russian news agency Interfax reported on Friday, citing Tengizchevroil.

Kazakhstan has pumped record high oil volumes despite damage to its CPC export route via Russia, industry sources said on Thursday. It was not immediately clear how Kazakhstan had been able to pump record volumes.

ALL EYES ON UKRAINE

The Ukrainian drone attack helped support crude prices this week, said Alex Hodes, analyst at StoneX in a note on Friday, also pointing to analysts’ expectation that OPEC+ will delay its production cut once again, in light of crude prices remaining below USD 80/bbl.

Elsewhere, relations between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US President Donald Trump deteriorated this week after Zelenskiy criticized US and Russian moves to negotiate a peace deal without Kyiv’s involvement. The rift was widened by Trump comments blaming Ukraine for starting the three-year-old conflict.

Yet after a meeting with Trump’s envoy for the Ukraine conflict on Thursday, Zelenskiy said Ukraine was ready to work quickly to produce a strong agreement with the US on investments and security.

“Trump keeps hammering Ukraine and the market is taking that as a potential easing of sanctions on Russia, and Russian oil flows coming back to the market,” said Again Capital’s Kilduff.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Arunima Kumar, Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo, Siyi Liu in Singapore, and Arunima Kumar in Mumbai; Editing by David Goodman, Susan Fenton, Marguerita Choy, Jane Merriman, David Gregorio, and Diane Craft)

US growth fears compound tariff nerves

Asian stocks are set to open on the defensive on Monday, taking the baton from a bruised Wall Street on Friday as worries over the US economy and new tariff threats from President Donald Trump cast a cloud over world markets.

The local calendar is light, with New Zealand retail sales and inflation from Singapore the main data points, and Reserve Bank of New Zealand Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby scheduled to speak in Wellington.

Investors will digest Germany’s election, which saw a victory for opposition conservatives and the far-right Alternative for Germany’s best-ever showing.

The market tone on Monday will be one of nervousness and uncertainty, as investors seek the safety of bonds, gold, and the US dollar. Japanese equity futures are pointing to a fall of 1.75% at the open.

Unexpectedly weak US and European economic activity data set the tone on Friday, and reasonably market-friendly signs over the weekend around the prospects of a US-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace deal are unlikely to improve it much.

Treasury yields fell last week, gold rose for an eighth week – its best run since 2020 – closing in on USD 3,000 an ounce, while the dollar stopped the rot of its recent selloff.

The Nasdaq fell 2.5%, its worst week in three months, lagging its global peers and indicating that US outperformance that has been the hallmark of global equities in recent years has peaked.

As Bank of America strategists quipped, the ‘Magnificent Seven’ may now be the ‘Lagnificent Seven’.

The MSCI World index dipped 1% last week, euro zone stocks shed only 0.3% over the week after making a new record high, and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose 1.5% for a sixth weekly gain in a row. That is its best run since November, 2022.

A rotation out of Wall Street into Europe and Asia appears to be underway, an one can see why – US stocks are over-owned, valuations are expensive and positioning is stretched. Europe and Asia look attractive.

EPFR-tracked Europe equity funds in the third week of February recorded their biggest inflow since early 2022 and Chinese tech stocks listed in Hong Kong have surged a stunning 35% in the past six weeks.

That momentum is unlikely to last, and next week could see a retracement. But the major indices in mainland China, Japan, and India are still in negative territory for the year – could their weak exchange rates tempt a wave of inflows?

Investors cheered President Xi Jinping’s meeting last week with Chinese tech and other business leaders, and the feel-good factor seems to be making up for nervousness around the yuan and uncertainty surrounding the threat of US tariffs and a potential trade war.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Monday:

– German election result

– Germany Ifo index (February)

– Singapore inflation (January)

(By Jamie McGeever, editing by Deepa Babington)

Nvidia to offer AI trades reality check

NEW YORK – Nvidia’s profit report could steer the US stock market’s course, as investors seek confirmation that the AI-driven investment trend, which has powered equities for two years, is intact after last month’s panic-selling triggered by the Chinese startup DeepSeek.

Seen as a bellwether of the burgeoning AI industry, Nvidia is the world’s second most valuable company, with a 6.3% weight on the S&P 500, according to LSEG. Its shares have skyrocketed over 550% over the last two years.

A recent stumble, however, came after the Chinese startup DeepSeek unveiled a lower-cost AI model that was seen as a threat to the dominance of US rivals, driving Nvidia down roughly 17% on January 27, equivalent to USD 593 billion – a record one-day market value loss.

Shares have almost fully recovered from the tumble and the company said DeepSeek’s advances prove the need for more of its chips, but apprehensive investors fear earnings could revive some market turbulence.

“It’s a tough setup going into the conference call next week because there is some anxiety of wanting to kind of call the top on Nvidia. So I would not be surprised to see rotation and fairly violent market reaction under any circumstance,” said Mike Smith, Allspring’s head of growth equity team.

He said investors could rotate out of AI trades into sectors such as healthcare, software, and financials.

Nvidia options imply a 7.7% swing for the shares in either direction following the results, in line with the stock’s average move of 7.6% on the day after results over the last 12 quarters, according to data from options analytics service ORATS.

With the AI chipmaker’s market capitalization hovering around USD 3.4 trillion, the options-implied stock move equates to a market value swing of about USD 260 billion, roughly the size of Wells Fargo.

Nvidia is expected to post on February 26 a fourth-quarter profit of USD 20.89 billion, driven by a roughly 72% rise in revenues from a year earlier, LSEG data showed.

With good fourth-quarter numbers on their way, all eyes will be on the guidance Nvidia provides for both supply and demand for its chips to justify its own rich valuation, as well as the sector’s outlook.

Nvidia recently traded at about 32 times forward 12-month earnings estimates, down from about 40 in early November, according to LSEG Datastream. The S&P 500 trades at 22 times forward earnings.

“Nvidia is the last piece of the market puzzle right now that might help reset investor sentiment,” said Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James Investment Management, adding the equities market has performed well despite uncertainties around US tariff and fiscal policy, a drop in retail sales and a hotter-than-expected consumer price index.

“It can be the catalyst to help the market break out once again,” he said.

Markets have changed since the selloff triggered by DeepSeek, as Nvidia has lost a lot of its power to move all stocks since the beginning of this year. The correlation between the chipmaker and the S&P 500 fell to 30% in 2025 from 71% last year, according to Schwab’s calculations.

Still, it does not mean stocks are bulletproof in case the bellwether Nvidia disappoints. “It’s important to separate the difference between the psychological effects of Nvidia on the market from the statistical effect. To me, it is more of a psychological move,” said Joe Mazzola, Schwab’s head trading and derivatives strategist.

Investors will also be watching next week’s release of US inflation numbers for January, especially after data last month showed that inflation increased by the most in eight months in December, amid robust consumer spending on goods and services.

Hotter-than-expected inflation data would probably prompt the Fed to wait longer to cut interest rates.

(Reporting by Carolina Mandl; additional reporting by Saqib Ahmed in New York; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle

Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work

Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning

Policy rate views: Fed expected to do baby steps

Inflation Update: Faster but full-year average within target