Fed caution, inflation risks propel US Treasury yield forecasts higher again

BENGALURU – US Treasury yield forecasts from bond strategists have marched higher for a second month amid expectations of limited remaining Federal Reserve rate reductions and rising inflation risks in 2025, a Reuters survey found.

Having kicked off its easing cycle with a jumbo half-percentage point cut in September, the central bank has lowered its fed funds rate by 75 basis points and looks set to trim another 25 bps on Wednesday to 4.25%-4.50%.

Yet, since the first reduction, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to prices, has shot up around 70 basis points – hitting a near six-month high of 4.50% last month.

The resilience of the world’s largest economy and President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies from tariffs to tax cuts – all expected to be inflationary – have put a dampener on the Fed’s easing plans and pushed yields higher, particularly on longer-dated bonds.

While the benchmark 10-year yield has moderated to around 4.40%, the median forecast from a Dec. 12-17 Reuters poll was for it to fall modestly to 4.25% in a year – above the 4.10% recorded last month and 50 bps higher than an October median.

Around 55% of forecasters raised their twelve-month 10-year note yield forecasts from November.

“If Trump’s policies focus on pushing growth up via increasing deficits, rates have even more room to move up,” said Zhiwei Ren, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management.

“Over the coming two years, it’s very hard to see those deficits coming down materially – which means the government will have to sell a lot of Treasuries to finance spending.”

An Oct. 28 estimate from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a budget-focused think-tank, found Trump’s proposed policies could push up US fiscal debt by USD 7.75 trillion over the next decade.

“Inflation was coming down sharply during the summer, but now that has stopped. The labor market has weakened a bit, but is still strong. Consumer spending is resilient and equities are hitting record highs. Financial conditions may not be as tight as the Fed thinks,” Ren added.

“If the Fed keeps cutting in this raging bull market, long-end rates will move even higher.”

In line with interest rate futures, economists surveyed by Reuters last week now expect only three more quarter-point rate cuts next year – half the amount predicted earlier this year.

Yet, forecasters remained mostly conservative in their point estimates for higher yields.

Survey medians from 44 strategists showed the benchmark yield slightly below current levels at 4.30% in three months and 4.27% at end-May, but both higher than November.

“Market rates are likely to remain around current levels,” said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income. “While the Fed is likely to continue to cut, it definitely won’t be the one-cut-per-meeting pace priced in at some points over the last several quarters.”

A 75%-strong majority, 15 of 20 strategists, responding to an additional question said the 10-year yield was unlikely to cross 5% next year. The last time it did so was in October 2023.

“One of the scenarios we considered is a ‘higher for longer’ yield curve, where the 10-year yield could return to 5%. In that case, extending duration, i.e. buying longer-dated bonds, could be detrimental. But it’s not our base case,” said Hong Cheng, head of fixed income and currency research at Morningstar.

(Reporting by Sarupya Ganguly; Polling by Pranoy Krishna and Aman Soni; Editing by Jonathan Cable and Christina Fincher)

Nasdaq closes at record as investors prepare for Fed rate decision

NEW YORK – The Nasdaq closed at a record high on Monday and the S&P 500 also rose as investors gauged the latest economic data while looking toward the Federal Reserve’s final policy announcement of the year later in the week to gauge the path of interest rates.

Markets have almost completely priced in a rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, with a 95.4% chance for a cut of 25 basis points (bps), according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

“Maybe the market was a bit oversold last week and with almost a 100% likelihood that the Fed will cut on Wednesday, the only outstanding question is what kind of rhetoric, what kind of notes will investors get regarding guidance,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York.

“It is likely to be a hawkish cut, meaning they will cut rates but the Fed will be talking about how they are still data-dependent and as a result there could be fewer cuts next year than people are thinking.”

On the economic front, S&P Global said its flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3 this month, below the 49.8 reading of economists polled by Reuters and the 49.7 in November. In addition, a gauge of factory production hit its lowest level since May 2020 ahead of the prospect of higher tariffs increasing the cost of imported raw materials next year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 110.58 points, or 0.25%, to 43,717.48, the S&P 500 gained 22.99 points, or 0.38%, to 6,074.08 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 247.17 points, or 1.24%, to 20,173.89.

The S&P 500 snapped a three-week streak of gains last week and the Dow also fell, while the Nasdaq managed a fourth straight week of gains. The Dow has now declined for eight straight sessions, its longest daily streak of declines since June 2018.

Most megacap and growth stocks gained ground on Monday, with Google parent Alphabet rising 3.6% and Tesla up 6.1% to help lift the communication services and consumer discretionary sectors, the best-performing of the 11 major S&P sectors on the session. Wedbush Securities raised its price target on Tesla to a Wall Street high of USD 515.

Ahead of the Fed decision, retail sales data will be eyed on Tuesday for signs of continued strength in the consumer.

The S&P 500 has rallied more than 27% this year as optimism over growth in artificial intelligence-related companies, the start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, a resilient economy and expected pro-business policies from Donald Trump’s incoming administration have helped boost equities. The benchmark index is up 58.2% over the past two years, which would mark its strongest two-year period since a 65.9% surge in 1997 and 1998.

Honeywell International climbed 3.7% after the industrial conglomerate said it was exploring a separation of its aerospace business.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.27-to-1 ratio on the NYSE while advancers outnumbered decliners by a 1.05-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and 18 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 112 new highs and 193 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 15.33 billion shares, compared with the 14.04 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak in New York
Additional reporting by Lisa Mattackal and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru
Editing by Matthew Lewis)

Political jitters ripple ahead of central bank fest

A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Asian market sentiment is likely to remain subdued on Tuesday following the release of mixed Chinese economic data the day before, as investors digest unnerving political events in key developed economies ahead of several G10 central bank interest rate decisions later this week.

The resignation of Canada’s finance minister and vote of no confidence in Germany’s Chancellor on Monday come on the heels of a surprise credit rating downgrade for France on Friday. While not impacting emerging markets directly, these could all encourage investors to reduce risk exposure ahead of the central bank policy blitz.

On the other hand, the dollar and US bond yields were very well contained and US stocks rose sharply again on Monday – the Nasdaq clocked its 36th closing record high of the year – as investors anticipate a rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

The Japanese yen fell for a sixth consecutive day on Monday to a one-month low through 154.00 per dollar as traders cool on the prospect of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan this week or even in January.

Some of Japan’s recent economic indicators have been fairly strong, which on top of the national wage growth settlements being agreed, would appear to bolster the case for the BOJ moving sooner rather than later.On the other hand, Japan’s economic surprises index last week hit its lowest in two and a half years. BOJ officials will also be nervously eyeing the heating up of US-China trade tensions and pondering the potential fallout if Beijing allows a significant depreciation of its currency.

A slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll published on Friday said the BOJ will keep borrowing costs on hold again this week. Last month’s poll showed a slim majority predicting a hike.

Elsewhere in Asian currency markets, the South Korean won sold off again on Monday, as the country’s Constitutional Court began reviewing the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol over his Dec. 3 martial law proclamation. The process will decide if he will be removed from office, while investigators plan to question him this week on criminal charges.

The won is within sight of the low of 1443 per dollar on Dec. 3, its weakest level in two years. A break below 1445 per dollar will mark its weakest point since March 2009.

Sentiment towards Chinese assets remains mixed. Official data from Beijing on Monday showed that foreign institutions cut holdings in Chinese onshore bonds for the third month in a row. The official disclosure chimes with recent figures from the Institute of International Finance, which recorded outflows in both China’s bond and equity markets in November.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

– Hong Kong unemployment (November)

– Singapore trade (November)

– Germany Ifo and ZEW surveys (December)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever;)

OpenAI IPO would create the next hot meme stock

LONDON – Artificial intelligence models require vast amounts of data. The companies that run them, like ChatGPT creator OpenAI, require vast amounts of cash. There’s a logical solution to the USD 157 billion group’s perpetual fundraising quest: the mother of all meme-stock initial public offerings in 2025.

Few companies have gone from obscurity to household name as quickly as founder Sam Altman’s OpenAI, which launched ChatGPT in late 2022, touted 100 million weekly active users within a year, and said in August 2024 that the number had doubled. Still, the group is miles away from converting popularity into profit, largely because of the cost of computing power that’s used to train and deploy the so-called large language models.

OpenAI had raised a whopping USD 17.9 billion as of September 2024, PitchBook figures show, chiefly from Microsoft. It tapped investors on average every 11 months compared with a mean of roughly every two years for US AI and machine learning startups between 2019 and 2024, according to the same data provider. Altman will soon be back for more: OpenAI’s internal projections imply cumulative red ink of USD 44 billion between 2023 and 2028, The Information reported.

His onetime financial backer Elon Musk has carved an instructive path. The billionaire’s electric-car group Tesla, which went public in 2010, has demonstrated that companies can defy gravity by tapping retail-investor fervor, offering a handy fundraising source. In 2020, for example, Tesla raised USD 10 billion in just a few months amid a trading frenzy involving fans. Even if individual investors don’t get allocations in such stock offerings, their demand keeps prices high, giving institutions the confidence to buy.

The alchemy through which companies grab the retail crowd’s attention is, admittedly, mysterious. But giving individuals or customers a slice of any IPO, like Robinhood Markets and Reddit did, would help. It also bodes well that Altman’s company offers investors a pure bet on AI, which is sorely in demand judging by chip designer Nvidia’s surge in recent years.

The chief obstacle may be OpenAI’s unconventional governance, in which a nonprofit controls a for-profit subsidiary with capped equity returns. Altman is planning to change that structure, Reuters reported, which suggests a float could work. So does the arrival in June of new finance chief Sarah Friar, an IPO veteran who played a key role in the listings of NextDoor KIND.N and Square, now called Block SQ.N.

There’s risk in courting the masses, whose attention could be more fleeting than venture capitalists or corporate backers. But there’s nothing to stop Microsoft or SoftBank from continuing to put money into a listed OpenAI. And going public would give Altman a plausible backup plan if the existing funding spigots run dry. – Karen Kwok

(Editing by Liam Proud and Oliver Taslic)

Gold slips, but set for weekly rise on potential US Fed rate cut

Gold prices fell on Friday after bullion hit a more than five-week high in the previous session and as the US dollar gained, but prices were on track for a weekly rise on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this week.

Spot gold was down 1.1% at USD 2,652.29 per ounce at 01:43 p.m. ET (1843 GMT), as the US dollar was steady at its highest in more than two weeks.

Bullion hit its highest since Nov. 6 on Thursday, and has risen over 0.8% so far for the week.

US gold futures settled 1.2% lower at USD 2,675.80.

“Gold had an explosive year and we’re getting into the tail end of the year which might see some unwinding going into the last few weeks, but I think that’s going to be short-lived and believe that gold is going to continue to move much higher,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Underpinned by easing monetary policies, robust central bank buying, and safe-haven demand, gold has shattered multiple record peaks this year.

Traders now see a 97% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting.

The focus will also be on Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary as market participants analyze US monetary policy for 2025, especially in the light of President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plan which economists say would stoke further inflation.

Central banks typically keep interest rates elevated to curb inflation, which in turn increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

“Generally speaking, we see a stronger US economy next year, which should leave less room for rate cuts and should thus bring less tailwinds for gold,” said Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer.

Spot silver fell 1.3% to USD 30.55 per ounce. Platinum lost 0.9% to USD 921.75 and palladium shed 1.9% to USD 951.87. All three metals were set for weekly losses.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil and Daksh Grover in Bengaluru; Editing by Alexander Smith and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

Dollar set for best week in a month on cautious Fed outlook for 2025

NEW YORK – The dollar headed for its best weekly performance in a month on Friday, as investors priced in the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates more slowly next year, while sterling fell after a surprise contraction in UK economic activity.

The US currency also rose against the yen after reports that the Bank of Japan could forgo a rate hike at its meeting next week.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six others, was up 0.037% at 107, set for a weekly gain of nearly 1%, its biggest in a month.

US data on Thursday showed the job market is gradually cooling in line with expectations, while producer price inflation helped reinforce the market’s current scenario of a Fed cut on Dec. 18, but a slower pace of reductions in 2025.

Markets fully expect a cut at the upcoming meeting, but only price a roughly 24% chance of another one in January, with March the most likely point for another move, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

“I think there will likely be a long pause, perhaps for all of the first quarter of the year from the Fed and then maybe just an incremental interest rate cut here and there as the central bank tries to refine its policy,” said Matt Weller, head of market research at StoneX.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, for example, said this month that she was comfortable cutting rates in December, but advocated “a more thoughtful and cautious approach” on further reductions.

The dollar rose 0.69% to 153.695 yen, its highest since late November. The yen has been the worst performer this week against the dollar, which has gained 2% on the Japanese currency.

Traders see just a 23% chance of a quarter-point hike by the BOJ on Dec. 19, following reports by Reuters and Bloomberg that pointed to officials forgoing tightening this time in order to wait for more evidence of wage growth and see how US policy takes shape under incoming president Donald Trump.

“While the outcome is uncertain, one thing is clear: a hike exceeding 15 bps would likely trigger a downside move in dollar/yen as the yen strengthens,” City Index market analyst David Scutt said.

“On the other hand, if the BoJ keeps rates unchanged, there’s a solid chance of a knee-jerk upside reaction.”

EUROPE UNDER PRESSURE

In Europe, the pound fell after data showed the UK economy shrank unexpectedly in October, adding to signs of a bigger-than-expected slowdown. The Office for National Statistics said the economy contracted 0.1% in October, compared with forecasts in a Reuters poll for growth of 0.1%.

Sterling was last down 0.45% at USD 1.2616, around its weakest since the start of the month.

The euro pared earlier losses against the dollar and rose 0.26% to USD 1.04945. The European Central Bank on Thursday cut rates by 25 basis points and kept the door open to further easing.

The Swiss franc remained under pressure after the central bank’s shock half-point rate reduction the day before. The Swiss franc was last nearly flat at 0.89265 francs.

Rate cuts and the threat of the US imposing tariffs have Canada’s dollar pinned to a 4-1/2 year low.

The Chinese yuan held at 7.281 per dollar in the offshore market. Reuters reported this week China is considering allowing its currency to fall further to counter the impact from any US trade war.

(Reporting by Hannah Lang in New York; Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper in London and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by William Maclean, Nick Zieminski, and Daniel Wallis)

Yields rise before Federal Reserve meeting

Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields rose to a three-week high on Friday before the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates this week by 25 basis points and signal it will pause rate cuts as it grapples with inflation running above its 2% annual target.

The closely watched part of the Treasury yield curve between three-month bills and 10-year notes also turned positive for the first time since November 2022.

Fed policymakers have stated that recent upticks in price pressures are part of the bumpy path to lower inflation and not a reversal of the disinflationary trend.

But analysts say they are also likely to be wary of renewed higher price pressures with President-elect Donald Trump set to take office in January.

“They have to take into account that in an economy where inflation is showing itself at this point to be sticky, and you’re very highly likely going to get further fiscal stimulus, deregulation, and some aspect of tariffs coming through, there’s just no way you can validate why you keep cutting in that instance,” said Tom Fitzpatrick, head of global market insights at R.J. O’Brien in New York.

Fed policymakers are also due to update their economic projections and interest-rate outlook, known as the “dot plot,” on Wednesday at the conclusion of the US central bank’s two-day meeting.

“I think they give a very strong guidance that they’re going to pause in January and also you’ll almost certainly see a revision of the dots in terms of the anticipation of the terminal rate,” Fitzpatrick said.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is due next Friday, after the Fed meeting.

The headline and core PCE data is expected to show that prices rose by 0.2% each in November, for an annual gain of 2.5% and 2.9%, respectively.

Benchmark 10-year note yields were last up 7.9 basis points at 4.403%, the highest since Nov. 22.

Two-year note yields, which are highly sensitive to Fed interest-rate policy, rose 5.5 basis points to 4.241%, the highest since Nov. 27.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes steepened by around three basis points to 16 basis points.

The yield curve between three-month bills and 10-year notes was last at seven basis points, turning positive on Friday for the first time in two years.

An inversion in this part of the yield curve is seen as an indicator that a recession is likely in the next one to two years. The curve typically turns positive before the recession sets in as traders price expected Fed rate cuts into the shorter-dated debt.

But analysts say it does not necessarily indicate an economic downturn is near, with steepening in the US yield curve this week being largely due to concerns about the long-term US fiscal outlook leading longer-dated yields higher.

“The price action this week seems like concern over the fiscal situation,” said Angelo Manolatos, macro strategist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte.

“The yield curve disinverting has largely been a function of the Fed being in an easing cycle and now we are pricing in some potential fiscal premium further out the curve as well,” he said.

The curve between two- and 10-year notes turned positive on Aug. 5, after being inverted since July 2022. An inversion in this part of the curve has also traditionally been viewed as a recession indicator, though the yield-curve inversions this time have lasted longer than in previous episodes.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Harry Robertson; Editing by Nick Zieminski, William Maclean, and Rod Nickel)

Fed rate view in focus as robust stocks year draws to close

NEW YORK – A banner year for US stocks gets one of its last big tests with this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, as investors await the central bank’s guidance on interest rate cuts.

The Nasdaq Composite index breached 20,000 for the first time ever in the past week, another milestone for equities in a year during which the tech-heavy index has gained 32% while the S&P 500 has risen about 27%.

Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates have supported those gains. But while the central bank is expected to lower borrowing costs by another 25 basis points next week, investors have moderated their bets on how aggressively policymakers will move next year due to robust economic growth and sticky inflation.

Bond yields, which move inversely to Treasury prices, have risen in recent sessions as a result, taking the benchmark US 10-year yield to a three-week high of 4.38% on Friday. While stocks have pushed higher despite the rise in yields, the 10-year is approaching the 4.5% level some investors have flagged as a potential trip-wire for broader market turbulence.

“Anything that results in an expectation that maybe the Fed moves even more slowly from here than investors were expecting could create a little bit of downside for stocks,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors.

The trajectory of monetary policy is closely monitored by investors, as the level of rates dictates borrowing costs and is a key input in determining stock valuations. Interest rate expectations also sway bond yields, which can dim the allure of equities when they rise because Treasuries are backed by the US government and seen as virtually risk-free if held to term.

Fed fund futures indicated a 96% chance the Fed will cut by 25 basis points when it gives its policy decision on Wednesday, according to CME FedWatch data as of Friday.

But the path for rates next year is less certain. Fed fund futures are implying the rate will be at 3.8% by December of next year, down from the current level of 4.5%-4.75%, according to LSEG data. That is about 100 basis points higher than what was priced in September.

The Fed’s summary of economic projections released at the meeting will provide one indication of where policymakers see rates heading. Officials penciled in a median rate of 3.4% for the end of next year when the summary was last released in September.

One sign of potential support for a slower pace of cuts came from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who this month said the economy is stronger now than the central bank had expected in September.

Another factor that could make Fed officials more cautious about future cuts is the presidential election of Donald Trump, whose pro-growth economic policies and favoring of tariffs are causing concerns about stronger inflation next year.

Analysts at BNP Paribas said they expect a “hawkish cut,” with the central bank likely to “open the door for a pause in further cuts of undefined length.”

Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth, said markets “will be trying to read into how worried is the Fed about inflation.”

November data released in the past week showed progress in lowering inflation toward the US central bank’s 2% target has virtually stalled.

Still, analysts say the market’s momentum favors more gains into year end, while sentiment among investors in surveys remains bullish – though some market technicals suggest the rally in stocks may have grown stretched.

The percentage of Nasdaq constituents hitting 52-week highs has declined since the rally after the Nov 5 election, implying fewer stocks are supporting the advance, Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, said in a note on Thursday.

“History suggests the tech-heavy index could be due for a breather before longer-term momentum resumes,” Turnquist said.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Nick Zieminski)

Gold slides from 5-week high, down over 1% on profit-taking

Gold slipped over 1% on Thursday as investors booked profits after it briefly reached a five-week high earlier in the session and squared positions ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting next week.

Spot gold lost 1.2% at USD 2,684.15 per ounce by 01:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT), while US gold futures settled 1.7% lower at USD 2,709.40. Bullion climbed to its highest level since Nov. 6 earlier in the session.

“Bulls maintain near-term momentum, though a pullback may occur ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting as investors lock in profits,” said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

“Focus will shift post-meeting to guidance on the January session and future policy direction, which will be critical in determining the sustainability of further market gains.”

The CME’s FedWatch tool places the likelihood of a December rate cut at 98%.

While there are increasing chances of a rate cut next week, inflation is going up, said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold, adding that “the Fed is in very much of a bind.”

US producer prices rose more than expected in November amid a surge in the cost of food. This was followed by Wednesday’s inflation data showing consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in November.

Jobless claims also rose in the latest week pointing towards an easing labor market making it more likely that the Fed will cut interest rates next week for the third time, despite little progress in lowering inflation down to its 2% target in recent months.

“Fund positioning remains somewhat bloated relative to market expectations for the FOMC heading into next week. And so we could see some position squaring into that event risk,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Meanwhile, the ECB cut interest rates for the fourth time this year, by a quarter of a percentage point and kept the door open to more.

Spot silver fell 2.7% to USD 30.04 per ounce, platinum was down 1.1% to USD 929.64 and palladium shed 1.1% to USD 970.96.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Mohammed Safi Shamsi, and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

US yields rise as data points to hawkish Fed rate cut

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields gained on Thursday, but briefly pared their rise after data showed that jobless claims rose in the latest week, while producer price inflation came in above economists’ expectations but showed some underlying weakness.

The data overall confirms expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by another 25 basis points when it concludes its two-day meeting next Wednesday.

But the US central bank is also expected to take a hawkish tone, and may signal that it is likely to pause rate cuts in January as it evaluates the outlook for inflation, which is still running above its 2% annual target, and the strength of the labor market.

“Given that the economy is probably going to be doing okay, I think the Fed could decide to keep rates on hold and just wait and assess to make sure that inflation expectations aren’t re-accelerating,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities in New York.

“The last thing they want is next year to have to restart the rate hiking cycle because they’ve missed something,” Goldberg said.

Key to the Fed’s interest rate path next year will be how quickly the Trump administration introduces policies, including possible new tariffs that analysts say could increase inflation.

Data on Thursday showed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ended Dec. 7, which likely reflected volatility after the Thanksgiving holiday.

US producer prices rose more than expected in November amid a surge in the cost of food, but a moderation in the prices of services offered hope that the disinflationary trend remains in place.

TD revised its estimate for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, downward on the data, Goldberg said. “A lot of the categories that flow into PCE were actually quite a bit weaker.”

Consumer price inflation data for November came in line with economists’ expectations on Wednesday, which boosted bets on another rate cut next week.

Benchmark 10-year note yields were last up 5.5 basis points to 4.326% and got as high as 4.332%, the highest since Nov. 25.

Two-year note yields, which are especially sensitive to interest rates, rose 2.9 basis points to 4.186%.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes steepened by around two basis points to 14 basis points.

The US Treasury Department sold USD 22 billion in 30-year bonds later on Thursday to soft demand, the final sale of USD 119 billion in coupon-bearing supply this week.

The bonds sold at a high yield of 4.535%, around a basis point above where they had traded before the auction. Demand was 2.39 times the amount on offer, the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since September.

The US government saw solid demand for a USD 58 auction of three-year notes on Tuesday and good interest for a USD 39 billion sale of 10-year notes on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Paul Simao and Nick Zieminski)

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