Japan’s Nikkei slides on Wall Street’s lead as BOJ decision looms

TOKYO – Japan’s Nikkei share average slid 1.5% early on Thursday, taking cues from an overnight tumble on Wall Street.

Investors were also cautious ahead of a policy decision from the Bank of Japan later in the trading day, with most market participants expecting officials to forgo an interest rate hike this time following recent media reports from Reuters and other news outlets.

“As much as the data is making the case for a December hike, reading the BOJ tea leaves, it is clear the Bank has a preference to wait a little bit longer,” said Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at National Australia Bank, who expects a quarter-point rise in January.

The Nikkei was 1.5% lower at 38,487.32 at 0010 GMT, while the broader Topix sank 1.3%.

Tech shares led declines on the Nikkei, with Advantest down 3.9%, Tokyo Electron losing 2.9%, and startup investor SoftBank Group tumbling 4.3%.

(Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Alan Barona)

Oil settles up after US crude stocks fall, Fed’s 2025 outlook curbs gains

HOUSTON –Oil prices settled higher on Wednesday after US crude inventories fell and the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, but gains were capped as the Fed signaled it would slow the pace of cuts.

Brent futures settled up 20 cents, or 0.27%, to USD 73.39 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 50 cents, or 0.71%, to USD 70.58. Both benchmarks retreated from gains of more than USD 1 a barrel at session highs.

US crude stocks and distillate inventories fell while gasoline inventories rose in the week ending Dec. 13, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Total product supplied, a proxy for demand, was 20.8 million barrels per day, up 662,000 bpd from the prior week.

“The market seems to have turned a corner from all the negativity we saw a couple weeks ago as there is more optimism about demand,” said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst for Price Futures Group.

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates and signaled it will slow the pace at which borrowing costs fall further, given a relatively stable unemployment rate and little recent improvement in inflation.

Both Brent and US crude futures pared gains and turned negative in post-settlement trade after the Fed’s announcement, which was followed by the dollar index reaching a year-to-date high of 108.156.

A stronger greenback makes oil more expensive in other countries, which can reduce demand.

US central bankers project they will make just two quarter-percentage-point rate reductions by the end of 2025.

Oil investors had already baked in a 25-basis-point cut to be announced on Wednesday, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said in a note, and had been more eagerly awaiting the Fed’s outlook for future cuts.

Lower rates decrease borrowing costs, which can boost economic growth and demand for oil.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, Colleen Howe in Beijing and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore. Editing by Jonathan Oatis, Mark Potter, David Gregorio, Rod Nickel, Chizu Nomiyama and Deepa Babington)

Powell says Fed cannot hold bitcoin, not seeking to change that

NEW YORK – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the US central bank has no desire to be involved in any government effort to stockpile large amounts of bitcoin.

“We’re not allowed to own bitcoin,” Powell said at a press conference following the Fed’s latest two-day policy meeting, in which policymakers cut rates as expected while signaling a less certain path for monetary policy in the months ahead.

In terms of the legal issues around holding bitcoin, “that’s the kind of thing for Congress to consider, but we are not looking for a law change at the Fed,” Powell said.

The Fed chief was addressing the prospect of central bank involvement in the idea of the government building a so-called Strategic Bitcoin Reserve once President-elect Donald Trump takes office.

Powell’s comments dented the value of bitcoin, which has rallied sharply along with other crypto assets since Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 election on the prospect of a more hands-off government approach to a class of assets that rarely functions as actual money, but is instead largely used as a vehicle for speculation.

Trump has suggested he will create a US bitcoin strategic reserve. But the incoming president has not provided details on what such a reserve would entail, beyond saying its initial holdings could include bitcoin seized from criminals, a stockpile of about 200,000 tokens worth about $21 billion at current prices.

Bitcoin has more than doubled this year to more than $100,000 on optimism over Trump’s pro-crypto stance. The asset has proven volatile in its 15 years of existence, which analysts say reduces its utility as a store of value or a unit of exchange, key attributes of a reserve currency.

Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a bill to create such a reserve, under which the US Treasury would buy 200,000 bitcoins annually until the stockpile reaches one million tokens. The purchases would be funded by Fed bank deposits and gold holdings.

Funding a strategic bitcoin reserve would likely require the approval of Congress and the issuance of new Treasury debt, according to an analysis published this week by Barclays. Given the likely ways such a reserve could be created, “we suspect such a plan would face stiff resistance from the Fed,” Barclays analysts said.

More broadly, Fed officials have been skeptical of securities like bitcoin as they have also backed away from their own efforts to create a fully digital dollar in favor of allowing the private sector to innovate payments technologies.

The Fed’s main role regarding cryptocurrencies appears to center on how those assets might affect consumer and banking sector safety.

“We regulate and supervise banks and we would want the interaction between the crypto business and the banks … not to threaten the health and well-being of the banks,” Powell said on Dec. 4. But he also noted at that time that when it comes to crypto assets, “we don’t regulate it directly.”

Trump plans to appoint former PayPal executive David Sacks to the newly-created position of White House AI and
Crypto Czar, and pro-crypto consultant Paul Atkins to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission.

(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Paul Simao)

Stocks fall, Dow drops for 9th straight session with Fed decision due

NEW YORK – US stocks retreated on Tuesday and the Dow dropped for a ninth straight session, as investors exercised caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s last policy announcement of the year after economic data indicated consumer spending remained solid.

US retail sales increased more than expected in November, buoyed in part by an acceleration in motor vehicle purchases, consistent with strong underlying momentum in a resilient economy.

Investors were largely focused on the Fed’s policy announcement on Wednesday, almost completely pricing in an interest rate cut of 25 basis points.

Of particular attention will be the Fed’s summary of economic projections (SEP) and comments from Chair Jerome Powell, which may indicate how aggressive the US central bank will be in cutting rates in 2025.

The Fed may slow its easing in an economy that appears to have solid momentum and sticky inflation, and as the incoming Trump administration is expected to impose policies to stimulate growth and potentially reignite rising prices.

“This is just kind of standard fare for a pre-Fed day market where you have just a little bit of uncertainty, people are not sure how to position ahead of the SEP and ahead of Powell,” said Jason Ware, chief investment officer at Albion Financial Group in Salt Lake City, Utah.

“Everyone knows we’re getting 25 bps … what Powell is going to say at the press conference, what the SEP is going to tell us, those things people are not quite sure of so you have a little bit of jitters ahead of that.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 267.58 points, or 0.61%, to 43,449.90, the S&P 500 slid 23.47 points, or 0.39%, to 6,050.61 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 64.83 points, or 0.32%, to 20,109.06.

While the Nasdaq hit a record high on Monday and the S&P 500 is up nearly 27% on the year, the Dow has struggled recently and suffered its ninth straight daily decline, its longest losing streak since February 1978.

Treasury yields oscillated between gains and losses on the day as investors braced for a “hawkish cut” from the Fed.

Nearly all of the 11 major S&P sectors were lower on the day, led by a 0.9% drop in industrials. Consumer discretionary was the sole advancer, lifted by a 3.6% gain in Tesla after Mizuho hiked its price target on the stock by USD 285 to USD 515. Wedbush also hiked its price target on the electric vehicle maker to USD 515 on Monday.

The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” rose above 15 for the first time in nearly three weeks to close at 15.87, its highest since Nov. 21, and the small-cap Russell 2000, seen as more sensitive to higher interest rates, dropped 1.2%.

Pfizer jumped 4.7% after the drugmaker forecast 2025 profit roughly in line with Wall Street expectations.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 2.77-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.79-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 11 new 52-week highs and 19 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 81 new highs and 197 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 16.17 billion shares, compared with the 14.11 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak, additional reporting by Lisa Mattackal and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Chang)

The five charts flashing red for US equity bulls: McGeever

ORLANDO – As the classic market cliche goes, investors should worry most when the consensus is overwhelmingly optimistic and be bullish when it’s overwhelmingly bearish.

If investors apply this logic to the 2025 US stock market outlook, they should be running for the hills.

By many measures – sentiment surveys, positioning, valuations – the helicopter view of Wall Street has rarely been rosier.

This wave of ‘US exceptionalism’ won’t catch anyone unawares. It has been building to a crescendo all year as the AI and tech boom steered the US economy away from any kind of landing – hard or soft – and fueled the stock market’s eye-popping outperformance.

But some of the numbers are flashing red and not just for the die-hard contrarians. In fact, the wave of optimism has been so powerful that it has swept away some of the Street’s most prominent bears.

Even ‘Dr Doom’ Nouriel Roubini and David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research have recently appeared to embrace the ‘TINA’ (There Is No Alternative) view on US stocks.

When the bears are capitulating, it’s definitely time to worry, right?

Probably, unless it really is different this time. And the last three years suggest this could be the case, as the post-Covid world has been unlike anything found in economic textbooks and market playbooks.

According to Dario Perkins at TS Lombard, US market and macro bears have repeatedly misread the post-COVID “fake cycle”. They’ve been fooled by the inverted yield curve, put too much emphasis on (mis)leading indicators, and misinterpreted labor market normalization as weakness.

“As the economy returns to more regular drivers, this sort of error should stop,” Perkins says. Hopefully, the bears are just “embracing reality, having been excessively pessimistic” for three years.

That may turn out to be the case, but even so, it would hardly be a return to business as usual. Indeed, there’s a lot about the US equity market right now that is highly unusual.

The fact that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are at record highs is not one of them. Stocks go up over time as the economy grows and productivity, innovation and company profits rise. But there are grounds for caution.

The difference between US and European equity valuations has never been wider; Wall Street’s share of the world equity market cap has never been bigger; and US consumers’ stock market outlook for the coming 12 months has never been more optimistic.

Extreme valuations are no guarantee of an imminent crash or correction. But as AXA Investment Managers’ Chris Iggo rightly observes, they change the risk calculus.

Still, a correction needs a trigger. What could that be this time around?

Valuations may finally spook investors, and the unwind becomes an unraveling. Perhaps it’s US President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda, the fragile political-economic axis in Europe, or China’s economic struggles. Or maybe some underlying risk that no one is paying attention to.

The S&P 500 has delivered total returns of around 35% since the Fed’s last rate hike in July 2023 and is set to record two consecutive years with 25%+ total returns.

As Iggo noted, “Given the backdrop, a third might be stretching it.”

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

Banks, oil stocks knock European shares to two-week lows

Europe’s STOXX 600 fell to two-week lows on Tuesday, pressured by losses in energy and bank stocks, as investors awaited a slew of major central bank decisions later in the week.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index ended 0.4% lower, its lowest closing level since Dec. 2.

The oil and gas index dropped 1.3% to its lowest level in 17 months as crude prices slid after economic data from China renewed demand concerns.

European banks were another drag, down 1.8% with Spanish lenders such as Santander and Sabadell at the forefront of losses. The broader Spanish benchmark dropped 1.6%.

While the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point interest rate cut on Wednesday, the focus will be the pace of easing next year as the US economy appears to be on a steady footing. The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England’s rate announcements are due on Thursday.

“The (Fed’s) statement and press conference will be very important to watch; note that last meeting, the Fed removed forward guidance and turned data dependent,” said Naomi Fink, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management.

Weighing on global stocks, the 10-year US Treasury yield, the benchmark for global borrowing costs, touched its highest in more than three weeks. It was last at 4.3790%.

Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.8% as the pound climbed after data showed British pay rose by more than expected in the three months to October, prompting investors to further rein in bets on rate cuts next year.

Traders expect the BoE to stay on hold on Thursday.

Ranjiv Mann, senior fixed income portfolio manager at AllianzGI, expects the central bank to “signal its desire to resume rate cuts in early 2025 given emerging downside growth risks for the UK economy.”

Meanwhile, German business morale worsened more than expected in December, a survey from the Ifo Institute showed.

A separate survey released by the ZEW institute, however, showed investors were more optimistic, largely pinning their hopes on a change in government following the upcoming Feb. 23 election.

Sanofi gained 3.3% after the French drugmaker and Teva Pharmaceuticals said that their drug, duvakitug, met the main goals in a mid-stage trial when tested in patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

Britain’s Bunzl fell 5.7% after the business supplies distributor said stickier than anticipated deflation will have a slight impact on its annual profit, especially in its Continental Europe division.

(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru. Editing by Eileen Soreng and Mark Potter)

Central bank fever builds, saps risk appetite

Investors in Asia on Wednesday enter a crucial 24-hour period in a cautious mood, with stocks in the red and risk appetite subdued ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision later in the day and the Bank of Japan’s closer call the following day.

Before these two blockbuster calls, the central banks of Thailand and Indonesia also deliver their latest policy decisions – both are expected to keep interest rates on hold at 2.25% and 6.00%, respectively.

The “risk off” tone for Asia on Wednesday was set by global market moves on Tuesday – world stocks and Wall Street posted chunky losses, the dollar held its ground, and the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a one-month high of 4.44% before easing back.

World stocks hit a two-week low on Tuesday, Wall Street’s big three indices lost between 0.3% and 0.6%, and the Dow clocked up its ninth consecutive daily loss. Remarkably, that is its longest losing streak since 1978.

Surprisingly strong US retail sales figures didn’t derail near-certain expectations of a quarter-point US rate cut on Wednesday. But it’s another solid top-tier economic indicator that will strengthen the perception of ‘US exceptionalism’ and a relatively hawkish Fed going into next year.

Indeed, assuming the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, another quarter-point move isn’t fully priced into rates futures markets until June. The 2025 curve barely implies 50 bps of easing all year.

This is helping support the dollar and Treasury yields, a sentiment-sapping combination at the best of times for emerging markets, never mind with so many central bank decisions on the immediate horizon.

Emerging markets will also be sensitive to the rising ‘term premium’ on 10-year US Treasuries – essentially the risk premium investors demand for lending long to Uncle Sam rather than rolling over shorter-term debt – which is close to making new highs for the year.

The dollar is holding up well generally but probably performing better against Asian and emerging currencies – the Brazilian real sank to a new low on Tuesday, India’s rupee touched another record low, while the Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah were also on the back foot ahead of their respective central bank decisions.

All this points to a fairly subdued day for risk assets in Asia Wednesday. In currencies, the yen is advancing across the board ahead of the BOJ decision on Thursday. Could Governor Kazuo Ueda and colleagues hike rates by 10 bps? Japanese swaps market pricing is split almost 50-50 on this right now.

Japanese stocks, meanwhile, are expected to open in the red but a burst of potential M&A activity could lift spirits after Nikkei reported that auto giants Nissan and Honda are to open merger talks.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– Thailand interest rate decision

– Indonesia interest rate decision

– US interest rate decision

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)

Fed caution, inflation risks propel US Treasury yield forecasts higher again

BENGALURU – US Treasury yield forecasts from bond strategists have marched higher for a second month amid expectations of limited remaining Federal Reserve rate reductions and rising inflation risks in 2025, a Reuters survey found.

Having kicked off its easing cycle with a jumbo half-percentage point cut in September, the central bank has lowered its fed funds rate by 75 basis points and looks set to trim another 25 bps on Wednesday to 4.25%-4.50%.

Yet, since the first reduction, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to prices, has shot up around 70 basis points – hitting a near six-month high of 4.50% last month.

The resilience of the world’s largest economy and President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies from tariffs to tax cuts – all expected to be inflationary – have put a dampener on the Fed’s easing plans and pushed yields higher, particularly on longer-dated bonds.

While the benchmark 10-year yield has moderated to around 4.40%, the median forecast from a Dec. 12-17 Reuters poll was for it to fall modestly to 4.25% in a year – above the 4.10% recorded last month and 50 bps higher than an October median.

Around 55% of forecasters raised their twelve-month 10-year note yield forecasts from November.

“If Trump’s policies focus on pushing growth up via increasing deficits, rates have even more room to move up,” said Zhiwei Ren, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management.

“Over the coming two years, it’s very hard to see those deficits coming down materially – which means the government will have to sell a lot of Treasuries to finance spending.”

An Oct. 28 estimate from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a budget-focused think-tank, found Trump’s proposed policies could push up US fiscal debt by USD 7.75 trillion over the next decade.

“Inflation was coming down sharply during the summer, but now that has stopped. The labor market has weakened a bit, but is still strong. Consumer spending is resilient and equities are hitting record highs. Financial conditions may not be as tight as the Fed thinks,” Ren added.

“If the Fed keeps cutting in this raging bull market, long-end rates will move even higher.”

In line with interest rate futures, economists surveyed by Reuters last week now expect only three more quarter-point rate cuts next year – half the amount predicted earlier this year.

Yet, forecasters remained mostly conservative in their point estimates for higher yields.

Survey medians from 44 strategists showed the benchmark yield slightly below current levels at 4.30% in three months and 4.27% at end-May, but both higher than November.

“Market rates are likely to remain around current levels,” said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income. “While the Fed is likely to continue to cut, it definitely won’t be the one-cut-per-meeting pace priced in at some points over the last several quarters.”

A 75%-strong majority, 15 of 20 strategists, responding to an additional question said the 10-year yield was unlikely to cross 5% next year. The last time it did so was in October 2023.

“One of the scenarios we considered is a ‘higher for longer’ yield curve, where the 10-year yield could return to 5%. In that case, extending duration, i.e. buying longer-dated bonds, could be detrimental. But it’s not our base case,” said Hong Cheng, head of fixed income and currency research at Morningstar.

(Reporting by Sarupya Ganguly; Polling by Pranoy Krishna and Aman Soni; Editing by Jonathan Cable and Christina Fincher)

Nasdaq closes at record as investors prepare for Fed rate decision

NEW YORK – The Nasdaq closed at a record high on Monday and the S&P 500 also rose as investors gauged the latest economic data while looking toward the Federal Reserve’s final policy announcement of the year later in the week to gauge the path of interest rates.

Markets have almost completely priced in a rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, with a 95.4% chance for a cut of 25 basis points (bps), according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

“Maybe the market was a bit oversold last week and with almost a 100% likelihood that the Fed will cut on Wednesday, the only outstanding question is what kind of rhetoric, what kind of notes will investors get regarding guidance,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York.

“It is likely to be a hawkish cut, meaning they will cut rates but the Fed will be talking about how they are still data-dependent and as a result there could be fewer cuts next year than people are thinking.”

On the economic front, S&P Global said its flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3 this month, below the 49.8 reading of economists polled by Reuters and the 49.7 in November. In addition, a gauge of factory production hit its lowest level since May 2020 ahead of the prospect of higher tariffs increasing the cost of imported raw materials next year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 110.58 points, or 0.25%, to 43,717.48, the S&P 500 gained 22.99 points, or 0.38%, to 6,074.08 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 247.17 points, or 1.24%, to 20,173.89.

The S&P 500 snapped a three-week streak of gains last week and the Dow also fell, while the Nasdaq managed a fourth straight week of gains. The Dow has now declined for eight straight sessions, its longest daily streak of declines since June 2018.

Most megacap and growth stocks gained ground on Monday, with Google parent Alphabet rising 3.6% and Tesla up 6.1% to help lift the communication services and consumer discretionary sectors, the best-performing of the 11 major S&P sectors on the session. Wedbush Securities raised its price target on Tesla to a Wall Street high of USD 515.

Ahead of the Fed decision, retail sales data will be eyed on Tuesday for signs of continued strength in the consumer.

The S&P 500 has rallied more than 27% this year as optimism over growth in artificial intelligence-related companies, the start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, a resilient economy and expected pro-business policies from Donald Trump’s incoming administration have helped boost equities. The benchmark index is up 58.2% over the past two years, which would mark its strongest two-year period since a 65.9% surge in 1997 and 1998.

Honeywell International climbed 3.7% after the industrial conglomerate said it was exploring a separation of its aerospace business.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.27-to-1 ratio on the NYSE while advancers outnumbered decliners by a 1.05-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and 18 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 112 new highs and 193 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 15.33 billion shares, compared with the 14.04 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak in New York
Additional reporting by Lisa Mattackal and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru
Editing by Matthew Lewis)

Political jitters ripple ahead of central bank fest

A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Asian market sentiment is likely to remain subdued on Tuesday following the release of mixed Chinese economic data the day before, as investors digest unnerving political events in key developed economies ahead of several G10 central bank interest rate decisions later this week.

The resignation of Canada’s finance minister and vote of no confidence in Germany’s Chancellor on Monday come on the heels of a surprise credit rating downgrade for France on Friday. While not impacting emerging markets directly, these could all encourage investors to reduce risk exposure ahead of the central bank policy blitz.

On the other hand, the dollar and US bond yields were very well contained and US stocks rose sharply again on Monday – the Nasdaq clocked its 36th closing record high of the year – as investors anticipate a rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

The Japanese yen fell for a sixth consecutive day on Monday to a one-month low through 154.00 per dollar as traders cool on the prospect of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan this week or even in January.

Some of Japan’s recent economic indicators have been fairly strong, which on top of the national wage growth settlements being agreed, would appear to bolster the case for the BOJ moving sooner rather than later.On the other hand, Japan’s economic surprises index last week hit its lowest in two and a half years. BOJ officials will also be nervously eyeing the heating up of US-China trade tensions and pondering the potential fallout if Beijing allows a significant depreciation of its currency.

A slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll published on Friday said the BOJ will keep borrowing costs on hold again this week. Last month’s poll showed a slim majority predicting a hike.

Elsewhere in Asian currency markets, the South Korean won sold off again on Monday, as the country’s Constitutional Court began reviewing the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol over his Dec. 3 martial law proclamation. The process will decide if he will be removed from office, while investigators plan to question him this week on criminal charges.

The won is within sight of the low of 1443 per dollar on Dec. 3, its weakest level in two years. A break below 1445 per dollar will mark its weakest point since March 2009.

Sentiment towards Chinese assets remains mixed. Official data from Beijing on Monday showed that foreign institutions cut holdings in Chinese onshore bonds for the third month in a row. The official disclosure chimes with recent figures from the Institute of International Finance, which recorded outflows in both China’s bond and equity markets in November.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

– Hong Kong unemployment (November)

– Singapore trade (November)

– Germany Ifo and ZEW surveys (December)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever;)

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