S&P 500 confirms bear market as recession worry grows

NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) – US equities tumbled on Monday, with the S&P 500 confirming it is in a bear market, as fears grow that the expected aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve would push the economy into a recession.

The benchmark S&P index has fallen for four straight days, with the index now down more than 20% from its most recent record closing high to confirm a bear market began on Jan. 3, according to a commonly used definition.

All the major S&P sectors were sharply lower, with only about 10 components of the S&P 500 in positive territory on the day. Markets have been under pressure this year as climbing prices, including a jump in oil prices due in part to the war in Ukraine, have put the Fed on track to take strong actions to tighten its monetary policy, such as interest rate hike.

The Fed is scheduled to make its next policy announcement on Wednesday and investors will be highly focused on any clues for how aggressive the central bank intends to be in raising rates.

High-growth market heavyweights such as Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) were the biggest drags on the S&P 500, as the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note hit 3.44%, its highest level since April 2011. Growth stocks are more likely to see their earnings suffer in a rising rate environment.

A hotter-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) reading on Friday prompted traders to price in a total of 175 basis point (bps) in interest rate hikes by September.

Goldman Sachs late on Monday said it expects 75-basis-point increases in June and July. Expectations for a 75 basis point hike at the June meeting jumped to 96% late on Monday from 30% earlier in the day, according to CME’s Fedwatch Tool.

“The market had been trying to rally around the idea that inflation has peaked, and the Fed would not have to be more aggressive,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky.

“That story fell apart on Friday with the CPI report, showing broad inflation being entrenched everywhere you look.”

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 lost 149.91 points, or 3.85%, to end at 3,750.95 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 526.82 points, or 4.65%, to 10,813.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 857.70 points, or 2.73%, to 30,535.09.

In addition, the two-year 10-year US Treasury yield curve briefly inverted for the first time since April, which many in the markets see as a reliable signal that a recession could come in the next year or two.

The Nasdaq Composite index, which suffered its fourth straight drop, confirmed it was in bear market territory on March 7 and has declined roughly 30% this year.

The CBOE Volatility index, also known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, spiked to its highest level since May. Still, many analysts view the level as subdued and could mean more selling pressure is in store.

“This is a market that does not look like it is capitulating as much as it is frustrated,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at US Bank Wealth Management in Seattle.

“Even with some of the securities being thrown out, it is just not deep enough, violent enough to see that people have taken positions off.

Cryptocurrency- and blockchain-related stocks, including Riot Blockchain (RIOT), Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) and Coinbase Global (COIN), all plunged as bitcoin slumped more than 10% after major US cryptocurrency lending company Celsius Network froze withdrawals and transfers citing “extreme” conditions.

(Additional reporting by Lewis Krauskopf, Stephen Culp and Noel Randewich; Editing by Aurora Ellis)

Biden adviser Sullivan raised concerns with China over North Korea

WASHINGTON, June 13 (Reuters) – US national security adviser Jake Sullivan has raised concerns with China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi over Beijing’s veto at the United Nations of a US-led push to impose more sanctions on North Korea, a senior US official said.

Washington has warned that North Korea’s first nuclear test since 2017 could happen at “any time”. China says it does not want to see that happen, which is partly why in May it vetoed a bid to impose new UN sanctions on Pyongyang over renewed ballistic missiles launches.

A senior US administration official told reporters during a briefing on a 4-1/2-hour meeting between Sullivan and Yang in Luxembourg on Monday that the United States believed Beijing and Washington could cooperate on the North Korea issue.

“Jake raised concerns, in particular, about the veto, which comes following a significant series of ballistic missile launches in violation of previous UN Security Council resolutions and the preparations … for potential nuclear tests,” the official said.

“Each side laid out their positions and the way we see the situation, and certainly Jake made very clear that we believe this is an area where the United States and China should be able to work together,” the official said.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday that Washington will maintain pressure on North Korea until Pyongyang changes course, following a meeting with his South Korean counterpart who urged China to persuade the North not to resume nuclear testing.

The Sullivan-Yang meeting follows a late May call between the two officials after which Sullivan said it was possible President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping could speak soon, though no such engagement has been announced.

The official said the United States and China were maintaining high-level communication, including a meeting between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart at a forum in Singapore on Friday.

“I’d expect to see additional potential meetings in the months ahead, but nothing specific planned at this time, the US official said when asked if a Xi-Biden meeting or call had been discussed.

The White House said in an earlier statement on the Luxembourg meeting that the United States sought to keep lines of communication open with Beijing to manage bilateral competition.

Relations between China and the United States are at their lowest point in decades, as the two countries spar over difference on Chinese-claimed Taiwan, China’s human rights record, and what Washington says is Beijing’s growing economic and military coercion around the world.

(Reporting by Michael Martina, Eric Beech, Andrea Shalal and Kanishka Singh in Washington; editing by Susan Heavey and Sandra Maler)

Signs Fed could get aggressive roil investors, send stocks tumbling

SINGAPORE/NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) – Rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will this week raise interest rates by more than previously forecast unsettled investors on Monday, sending the S&P 500 tumbling to confirm a bear market and intensifying fears over the economic outlook.

The Fed meets on Wednesday following data last week showing that US consumer prices rose at their fastest pace since 1981.

Citing a report on Monday in the Wall Street Journal, Goldman Sachs said it expects 75-basis-point increases in June and July, and then a 50-basis point hike in September.

Late on Monday, expectations for a 75 basis point hike at the June meeting jumped to 96% from 30% earlier in the day, according to CME’s Fedwatch Tool. A 75-basis-point hike would be the biggest since 1994.

“The May inflation data was so concerning that we think the Fed will react even more aggressively in moving rates ‘expeditiously’,” BNY Mellon strategist John Velis said on Monday. His note forecast a 75-basis-point hike, up from a 50 basis-point prediction.

Barclays and Jefferies have also forecast a 75-basis-point hike.

“US CPI surprised to the upside and continues to show broad and persistent price pressures,” Barclays analysts said in a Sunday note. “We think the Fed probably wants to surprise markets to re-establish its inflation-fighting credentials.”

The S&P 500 on Monday ended down more than 20% from its most recent closing high, confirming it was in a bear market. A key part of the Treasury yield curve inverted on fears that big Fed hikes would tip the economy into recession, and yields of benchmark 10-year Treasuries hit their highest levels since 2011.

“The markets are not waiting for Wednesday’s (Fed) meeting, they are going to front run them and that’s what is already happening in the markets today,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group.

Other large investors on Wall Street said that while they do not see a 75-basis-point move as imminent, the probability of such a large rate hike in the next few months are rising.

Standard Chartered said that even a 100-basis point hike could not be precluded.

‘INCESSION’

Markets reacted with a sell-off in short-dated Treasuries along with futures tied to the Fed policy rate. Yields on the two-year Treasury note are at their highest since late 2007.

Bets on the US terminal rate – where the Fed funds rate may peak this cycle – continue to rise. On Monday, rates were priced to approach 4% in mid-2023, up almost one percentage point since end-May. Deutsche Bank said it now saw rates peaking at 4.125% in mid-2023.

In one sign of turmoil in the global fixed-income market, credit default swap indexes measuring the cost of insuring against European corporate bond defaults jumped on Monday to their highest since 2020.

US corporate bonds were also pummeled over the economic outlook and companies’ ability to repay their debt.

For Rabobank, the risk of “stagflation” – a period of weak growth and high inflation last seen in the 1970s – could give way to the threat of “incession”, a combination of inflation and recession, it said in a research note on Sunday.

The shape of the Treasury yield curve inversion, rising high-yield credit spreads, and the underperformance of cyclical stock market sectors, indicated rising concerns on the economic outlook, said Oliver Allen, an economist at Capital Economics.

“One interpretation is that investors are veering towards a view that the Fed will need to induce a recession if it is to bring inflation back to target,” he said in a note.

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook, Davide Barbuscia and David Randall; Additional reporting by Noel Randewich; Editing by Megan Davies, Tomasz Janowski and Lisa Shumaker)

Investors flee 2-year Treasuries on inflation shock

SINGAPORE, June 13 (Reuters) – Short-dated US Treasuries dropped sharply in Asia on Monday as investors scrambled to price in an even steeper rate-hike path to tame inflation and worried that rapidly tightening financial conditions could severely dent the world’s biggest economy.

Two-year Treasury yields rose as far as 12.7 basis points (bps) to 3.1940%, the highest level since late 2007, extending selling after Friday’s hot inflation data. A holiday in Australia thinned trade and liquidity a little.

The flight from the short end leaves the two year yield up nearly 40 bps in two sessions and has futures pricing pointing to the Federal Reserve’s benchmark funds rate hitting 3% before the year’s end and topping 3.8% before the middle of 2023.

“There was a view that CPI had peaked. The numbers on Friday showed that it hasn’t peaked,” said Mitul Kotecha, a strategist at TD Securities in Singapore.

“There’s a realisation that the Fed is going to have to do more and put its foot on the pedal even more aggressively,” he said. “There is a risk that pushes the US and global economy into recession.”

That fear was reflected in a relatively steady 10-year yield at 3.1874%, narrowing the gap on the two-year yield to just 1.8 bps in a signal that investors expect the looming short-term hikes will hurt longer term growth.

Soaring food and energy prices drove the largest year-on-year gain in US consumer prices since 1981 last month, against an expectation for inflation to begin slowing down.

“We think the Fed probably wants to surprise markets to re-establish its inflation fighting credentials,” Barclays analysts said in a Sunday note, forecasting a 75-bp hike this week.

CME’s FedWatch tool showed a roughly 1/4 chance of a 75-bp hike when the Fed meets on Wednesday, which would be the biggest single-meeting hike since 1994.

Fed funds futures 0#FF: fell heavily on Monday, especially contracts for the early months of next year, to show markets pricing the Fed’s benchmark rate around 3.8% by May next year.

The selling also set other markets on edge, knocking S&P 500 futures ESc1 1.5% lower and lifting the US dollar to its strongest level on the yen since 1998.

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Dollar rises as hot US inflation data seen keeping Fed hawkish

NEW YORK, June 10 (Reuters) – The dollar climbed to a near four-week high against a basket of currencies on Friday, after data showed US consumer prices accelerated in May, strengthening expectations the Federal Reserve may have to continue with interest rate hikes through September to combat inflation.

In the 12 months through May, the CPI increased 8.6% after rising 8.3% in April. Economists had hoped that the annual CPI rate peaked in April.

The inflation report was published ahead of an anticipated second 50 basis points rate hike from the Fed next Wednesday. The US central bank is expected to raise its policy interest rate by an additional half a percentage point in July. It has hiked the overnight rate by 75 basis points since March.

“Inflation is now at a 40-year high with little evidence that it has peaked,” said John Doyle, vice president of dealing and trading at Monex USA.

“Stocks are extending losses on the expectation the Fed could find the scope to speed up rate hikes. The greenback is gaining on policy divergence and risk-off trading,” Doyle said.

The US Dollar Currency Index, which tracks the greenback against six other major currencies, was 0.8% higher at 104.16, its highest since May 17, and within sight of 105.01, the two-decade high touched in mid-May.

For the week, the index was up nearly 2%, its best weekly performance in 6 weeks.

The dollar was up 0.79% against the Swiss franc at 0.9881 francs after the US Treasury Department on Friday said Switzerland continued to exceed its thresholds for possible currency manipulation under a 2015 US trade law, but refrained from branding it a currency manipulator.

With the US inflation data knocking investors’ risk appetite, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar reversed direction to trade down 0.58% on the day.

Sterling fell 1.5% to USD 1.2315 and was set for a second consecutive week of declines as Britain’s gloomy economic outlook left investors on edge.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin slipped 3.7% to USD 28,984.33, as the world’s largest digital currency by market value continued to struggle to overcome a bout of selling pressure that has taken it below the USD 30,000 level in recent sessions.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; editing by David Evans and Chizu Nomiyama)

Wall Street unnerved as hot inflation sparks fears of more combative Fed policy

June 10 (Reuters) – US stock indexes slid on Friday as consumer prices rose more than expected in May, dashing hopes that inflation is peaking and fanning worries about more aggressive steps by the Federal Reserve to tame it.

All the 11 major S&P sectors traded lower. Communication services, technology and consumer discretionary sectors declined between 2.5% and 3.2%. Financials and banks lost 2.8%.

The Labor Department’s report showed US consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to 1% in May from 0.3% in April, while on an annual basis it surged 8.6% as gasoline prices hit a record high and the cost of services rose further.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the monthly CPI picking up 0.7%.

Core CPI prices, which exclude volatile food and energy products, climbed 6% after a 6.2% rise in April on an annual basis.

“What this likely does is change the calculus for what the Fed might do in September versus what they might do next week,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, New York.

“By that I mean, you have most-assuredly a 50-basis points (bps) rate hike coming next week … but the wagering on September had been a 50-50 between a 25 bps to a 50 bps hike, and now this has definitely shifted to 50 bps.”

The US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting is due on June 14-15. Investors fear a tight labor market coupled with persistently high inflation could force the Fed to quicken the pace of its pandemic-era policy support withdrawal.

Money markets are now pricing in 50 bps rise in rates by the U.S central bank next week, July and September. A Reuters poll also found economists see no pause in rate rises until next year.

US stocks have sold off sharply this year amid heightened uncertainty around the outlook of Fed’s policy moves, a war in Ukraine, prolonged supply-chain snarls and pandemic-related lockdowns in China.

For the week, all the three major indexes are down between 4.2% and 5.2% as rate-sensitive growth stocks came under pressure from elevated Treasury yields.

At 10:04 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 739.63 points, or 2.29%, at 31,533.16, the S&P 500 .SPX was down 101.07 points, or 2.52%, at 3,916.75, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 346.72 points, or 2.95%, at 11,407.51.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Apple Inc. (AAPL) dipped 3.6% and 3.3%, respectively, to weigh the most on all the three indexes.

Netflix Inc. (NFLX) slid 5.9% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the streaming giant’s stock to “sell” from “neutral” due to a possibly weaker macro environment.

The CBOE volatility index spiked to 28.41 points, its highest level since May 26.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 10.03-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 5.61-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P index recorded one new 52-week highs and 38 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded five new highs and 172 new lows.

(Reporting by Devik Jain, Mehnaz Yasmin and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)

European shares slip ahead of US inflation data

June 10 (Reuters) – European shares on Friday extended losses to a fourth consecutive session, ahead of US inflation data that could spur more speculation about the Federal Reserve’s policy decision next week.

All sectors were trading in red with banks weighing the most in the pan-European STOXX 600 index, which lost 0.7% by 0704 GMT, on course to end the week about 2% lower.

The US Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index is expected to have accelerated to 0.7% last month from 0.3% in April. But when stripped of volatile food and energy products, it is seen cooling a nominal 0.1 percentage point to 0.5%.

The data is due at 1230 GMT on Friday, with growing bets that the US Fed will increase beyond the two 50 bps hike it plans for next week and July.

This comes a day after equities were hammered following the European Central Bank’s clues that it would deliver next month its first interest rate hike since 2011, and a potentially larger move in September.

Among individual stocks, GSK (GSK) jumped 2.4% after the drugmaker said its vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus was successful in a late-stage trial involving older adults.

(Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

Wall Street drops as investor jitters climb before CPI data Friday

NEW YORK, June 9 (Reuters) – US stocks sold off sharply Thursday as investor anxiety heightened ahead of data on Friday that is expected to show consumer prices remained elevated in May.

Selling picked up toward the end of the session. Mega-cap growth stocks led the drop, with Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) falling 3.6% and 4.2%, respectively, and putting the most pressure on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

Communication services and technology had the biggest declines among sectors, although all 11 S&P 500 sectors ended lower on the day.

Adding to nervousness, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to as much as 3.073%, its highest level since May 11.

Recent sharp gains in oil prices also weighed on sentiment before Friday’s US consumer price index report.

“We’re getting prepared for what the news might be regarding inflation tomorrow,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.

“I view it as mixed. If the total is high and the core number shows some sort of drop, I actually think the markets could rally on that because it’ll show that things are kind of rolling over a bit.”

The data is expected to show that consumer prices rose 0.7% in May, while the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, rose 0.5% in the month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 638.11 points, or 1.94%, to 32,272.79; the S&P 500 lost 97.95 points, or 2.38%, to 4,017.82; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 332.05 points, or 2.75%, to 11,754.23.

All three of the major indexes registered their biggest daily percentage declines since mid-May. The S&P 500 is down 15.7% for the year so far and the Nasdaq is down about 25%.

Higher-than-expected inflation readings could increase fears that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than previously expected.

The central bank has raised its short-term interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point this year and intends to keep at it with 50 basis points increases at its meeting next week and again in July.

Alibaba Group (BABA) shares slid 8.1% after its affiliate Ant Group said it has no plan to initiate an initial public offering.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 5.51-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.79-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 31 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 18 new highs and 127 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 11.50 billion shares, compared with the 12.07 billion-share average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Mehnaz Yasmin in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)

TIMELINE-China takes steps to ease up on regulatory crackdown as economy slows

July 21 (Reuters) – Chinese authorities imposed a $1.2 billion fine on ride-hailing firm Didi Global Inc, a move that signalled an end to a year-long probe into the ride-hailing firm’s cybersecurity practices. nB9N2XF02H

Here is a timeline of key events underscoring the easing of China’s regulatory crackdown since the beginning of this year:

Feb. 10: China’s cyberspace watchdog said it had held a symposium with domestic technology giants in January which had given the industry a “clearer understanding” of how to pursue development and confidence amid a new regulatory landscape. nL8N2UL0DJ

March 16: Vice-Premier Liu He, China’s economic tsar, urged the introduction of market-friendly policies to support the economy and expressed caution about measures that risked hurting markets. The comments boosted battered shares in China and Hong Kong. nL2N2VJ0Y6

April 11: China’s gaming regulator granted publishing licences for 45 games from developers including Baidu Inc 9888.HK and XD Inc 2400.HK, ending a nine-month freeze.

April 29: China’s powerful Politburo, in a meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping, said it will step up policy support for the economy, including its so-called platform economy – referring to internet platforms such as online marketplaces. nL2N2WR0UQ

May 15: Chinese financial authorities allowed a further cut in mortgage loan interest rates for some home buyers, in another push to prop up its property market and revive a flagging engine of the world’s second-largest economy. nL2N2X70LX

May 16: Authorities asked three financially healthy major private Chinese property developers to issue bonds to help boost market sentiment, two people with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. nL2N2X809G

May 24: Financial regulators pledged to keep credit growth stable in the property sector and help home buyers affected by COVID-19 outbreaks to defer mortgage payments, the central bank said in a statement. nB9N2X101L

May 17: Vice-Premier Liu told a meeting convened by China’s top political consultative body that the government supported the development of the technology sector and public listings for such companies. Tech executives who attended the meeting included founders of search engine company Baidu and mobile security software maker 360 Security Technology Inc 601360.SS, known as Qihoo 360. nL2N2X903A

June 7: China’s gaming regulator granted publishing licences for 60 games. nL1N2XU0UZ

June 8: Reuters reported, citing sources, that Didi is in talks with state-backed Sinomach Automobile Co Ltd 600335.SS to buy a third of its electric vehicle unit, signalling the ride-hailer’s regulatory troubles are in the rear view mirror as it focuses on growth. nL8N2XU1XR

June 9: The government gave tentative approval for Ant Group, an affiliate of e-commerce behemoth Alibaba, to revive its initial public offering in Shanghai and Hong Kong, two people told Reuters, the biggest sign yet of a cooling of Beijing’s tough stance on the technology sector. nL1N2XW160

(Reporting by Selena Li in Hong Kong; Editing by Matthew Lewis, Anshuman Daga and Christopher Cushing)

((Selena.Li@thomsonreuters.com; +852 39525868;))

Top US official meets Philippines’ Marcos to boost “longstanding alliance”

MANILA, June 9 (Reuters) – Philippine President-elect Ferdinand Marcos met with a top US official in Manila on Thursday, underscoring efforts to preserve an alliance strained by incumbent leader Rodrigo Duterte’s animosity toward Washington and his embrace of Beijing.

The Philippines is a fulcrum of the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China. Though the Southeast Asian country has a defence treaty with the United States, their ties were left shaken by Duterte’s recent overtures to China.

Analysts also see Marcos as more favorable to Beijing than Washington, but last month he said he would defend sovereign territory and stand up to Chinese encroachment, in his strongest comments yet on foreign policy.

The Philippines and China have nonetheless clashed over overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, a strategic waterway that sees about USD 3 trillion worth of trade pass through it every year.

On Thursday, the Philippines’ foreign affairs ministry protested more than 100 Chinese vessels operating illegally in the waters in and around Julian Felipe Reef, or the Whitsun Reef, located within its 200-mile exclusive economic zone.

Manila called on Beijing to “cease and desist from displaying illegal and irresponsible behaviour, avoid further escalating tensions at sea and immediately withdraw all of its vessels from Philippine maritime zones.”

It came a week after the Philippines announced a diplomatic protest against China unilaterally declaring a South China Sea fishing ban, and nearly two months after Manila complained of harassment and violations of its jurisdiction by Beijing’s coastguard.

China’s embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Several countries including the United States have raised concerns over what they see as China’s assertiveness in the region.

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Marcos discussed regional security, and human rights and the rule of law in the Philippines, the US Embassy in Manila said in a statement.

“We discussed strengthening our longstanding alliance, expanding people-to-people ties, deepening our economic relationship, advancing human rights and preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific,” Sherman said on Twitter.

Marcos, who is set to take office on June 30, has described the Philippines’ relationship with United States as special and “very important.”

But his own relations with it are complicated by a contempt of court order for his refusal to co-operate with the District Court of Hawaii, which in 1995 ordered the Marcos family to pay USD 2 billion of plundered wealth to victims of his namesake father’s rule. He and his mother, Imelda Marcos, also face a USD 353 million fine.

Marcos hasn’t visited the United States for 15 years.

The US Embassy in Manila, without directly addressing Marcos’ case, said: “Under international law, a sitting head of state is granted comprehensive immunity from foreign jurisdiction. Therefore, a president will have immunity from US jurisdiction, including when travelling in the United States.”

(Reporting by Karen Lema and Neil Jerome Morales; Editing by Kanupriya Kapoor)

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