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Archives: Reuters Articles

Philippine inflation near 4-year high, cements prospect of more rate hikes

MANILA, July 5 (Reuters) – Philippine inflation surged to the highest level in nearly four years in June, cementing expectations for more interest rate hikes and increasing the prospect of the central bank acting more aggressively to temper price pressures.

The consumer price index rose 6.1% in June from a year, marking the third consecutive month inflation has been above the official 2%-4% target band, driven mainly by higher transport and utilities’ costs, as well as food prices, the statistics agency said on Tuesday.

The Philippine Statistics Authority has yet to release core inflation figures since shifting to the new 2018 base year in determining changes in consumer prices.

The headline figure outpaced the 5.9% median forecast in a Reuters poll, but was within the 5.7%-6.5% range projected by the central bank for the month.

Inflation in the first half of the year averaged 4.4%.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may consider bigger interest rate hikes to support a weak Philippine peso and contain inflation, though will not be obliged to match policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve, Governor Felipe Medalla said last week.

Speaking ahead of the June inflation data, Robert Dan Roces, an economist at Security Bank in Manila, said the BSP’s Monetary Board “might consider a one-time, preemptive 50 basis points policy rate hike when it meets on Aug. 18 if inflation’s upside risks remain persistent.”

The BSP has tightened its monetary policy to curb inflation pressures with back-to-back rate hikes of 25 basis points in May and June.

A weakening peso could also help push up inflation, while also curbing consumer purchasing power.

The narrowing gap between Philippines and US interest rates has weighed on the peso, which is trading near a 17-year low against the US dollar.

(Reporting by Enrico Dela Cruz and Karen Lema; Editing by Ed Davies)

Improved risk sentiment lifts euro, sterling

Improved risk sentiment lifts euro, sterling

LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) – The euro and sterling rose on Monday against safe-haven currencies, supported by improved global risk sentiment in a quiet trading session due to a holiday in the United States.

European stocks and Britain’s FTSE share index rallied on Monday, helped by gains in oil and gas companies. US markets are closed for Independence Day.

Sterling and the euro gained some ground against the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

The single currency rose 0.2% to USD 1.0440 against the dollar, but stayed barely above May’s five-year trough of USD 1.0349, while sterling rose 0.4% to USD 1.2143 after hitting a two-week low of USD 1.1976 on Friday.

“Quiet trading to start the week is seeing the US dollar weaken against most major currencies as it unwinds Friday’s gains,” said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank.

Reports that the White House will announce an easing of some Chinese tariffs later this week in an attempt to dampen elevated inflation helped inject some optimism back into markets, Osborne added.

But amid fears of a global recession, the euro remained near a five-year low against the dollar.

The war in Ukraine and its economic fallout, in particular soaring food and energy inflation, has been a major drag on the euro, which has weakened 8% against the dollar this year. The difference between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve response to higher inflation has also weighed on the euro.

Data on Friday showed euro zone inflation surging to another record, adding to the case for the ECB to raise interest rates this month for the first time in a decade.

Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC said he expected headwinds on the euro to persist as the ECB is set to hike rates on July 21 by “a mere 25 basis point”.

“ECB action remains moderate when compared with a 75bps Fed hike,” he said. “Beyond ECB monetary policy discussion, the primary European Union risk variable relates to the energy sector.”

Safe-haven demand has kept the dollar elevated even if markets have scaled back some of their US rate hike expectations. The market 0#FF: is pricing in around an 85% chance of another hike of 75 basis points this month and rates at 3.25% to 3.5% by year-end, before cuts in 2023.

The US dollar index =USD eased 0.03% to 105.02, not far below last month’s two-decade high of 105.790.

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, investors are awaiting publication of minutes from last month’s Fed meeting on Wednesday and US employment data on Friday.

Australia’s central bank will meet on Tuesday and markets have priced in a 40 basis point (bp) rise in interest rates. The Aussie may not catch much of a boost if a hike of that size, or thereabouts, is delivered.

(Reporting by Joice Alves. Editing by Jane Merriman, Chizu Nomiyama and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

 

Marcos vows to boost Philippines’ grains output to avert food crisis

Marcos vows to boost Philippines’ grains output to avert food crisis

MANILA, July 4 (Reuters) – Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr vowed on Monday to do what it takes to boost his country’s rice and corn production, seeking to reduce reliance on imports and avoid being hit hard by a food crisis now looming across the world.

Marcos, who was sworn in as president last week and has appointed himself agriculture minister, said the Philippines – the world’s second-biggest rice importer – was now at a disadvantageous position over its food supply.

“When we look around the world, everyone is preparing for it,” Marcos said during a meeting with senior agriculture officials, referring to the food crisis.

“So we should really pay close attention to what we can do.”

Marcos comes to power at a critical time, with inflation at its highest in more than three years and as the world faces a tightening food supply, resulting from the conflict between major cereals exporters Russia and Ukraine.

A transcript of the meeting provided by the presidential mentioned no specific remedial measures or targets, but Marcos said the government would ensure affordability of food prices.

To ensure long-term food sufficiency and affordability, Marcos reiterated a campaign promise to “reconstruct our value chain”, within his six-year term, to lessen dependence on food imports.

He also sought a review of a 2019 Rice Tariffication Law, which opened the Philippine door wider to imports by removing the annual quota on purchases and limiting the government’s role in rice trade to ensuring supply during emergencies.

(Reporting by Enrico Dela Cruz; Editing by Martin Petty)

Gold edges lower as July rate hikes loom

July 4 (Reuters) – Gold prices fell on Monday, hovering near the key USD 1,800 level, as the prospect of higher global interest rates amid rising price pressure and a firmer dollar weighed on bullion’s appeal.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to USD 1,806.60 per ounce by 0916 GMT after touching a five-month low of USD 1,783.50 on Friday.

US gold futures rose 0.3% to USD 1,807.50.

The US dollar held close to a two-decade high touched last month, pressuring gold by making it expensive for those holding other currencies.

“Gold bulls are stuck in a quagmire of aggressive Fed policy actions, as the prospects of higher US rates erode support for the precious metal,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity.

The US Federal Reserve is expected to deliver another 75-basis-point (bps) interest rate hike this month.

The European Central Bank too is widely predicted to follow its global peers. Euro zone inflation hit yet another record high in June as price pressures broadened.

“Markets have yet to fully price in a 75 bps hike at this month’s FOMC meeting. If policymakers are forced to turn more aggressive in the face of unwavering inflation, that could spell another leg down for gold prices,” Tan added.

Investors are also awaiting publication of minutes from last month’s Fed meeting on Wednesday and US employment data on Friday.

“In this environment of ever rising interest rates, it is hard to see gold making significant gains but if the precious metal can hold above USD 1,800 an ounce, then it would demonstrate that there remains significant underlying support for gold,” Rupert Rowling, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said.

Spot silver fell 0.1% to USD 19.86 per ounce, trading near its lowest in two years.

Platinum slipped 0.8% to USD 882.25, while palladium XPD= was little changed at USD 1,960.29.

US markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday.

(Reporting by Arundhati Sarkar in Bengaluru; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

 

Gold slips as interest rate expectations sap appeal

Gold slips as interest rate expectations sap appeal

July 4 (Reuters) – Gold fell on Monday as prospects of higher interest rates dimmed appeal for the non-yielding asset, but a softer dollar helped bullion to cling above the USD 1,800 support level.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to USD 1,807.40 an ounce by 1311 GMT, having touched a five-month low of USD 1,783.50 on Friday.

US gold futures rose 0.4% to USD 1,809.00.

The US dollar was down 0.2% but held close to a two-decade high reached last month.

A weaker dollar makes gold less expensive for those holding other currencies.

“Gold bulls are stuck in a quagmire of aggressive Fed policy actions, as the prospects of higher US rates erode support for the precious metal,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity.

The US Federal Reserve is expected to deliver another 75 basis point (bps) interest rate increase this month.

The European Central Bank, too, is widely expected to follow its global peers. Euro zone inflation hit yet another record high in June as price pressures broadened.

“Markets have yet to fully price in a 75 bps hike at this month’s FOMC meeting. If policymakers are forced to turn more aggressive in the face of unwavering inflation, that could spell another leg down for gold prices,” Tan said.

Investors are also awaiting publication of minutes from last month’s Fed meeting on Wednesday and US employment data on Friday.

“In this environment of ever-rising interest rates, it is hard to see gold making significant gains. But if the precious metal can hold above USD 1,800 an ounce, then it would demonstrate that there remains significant underlying support,” said Rupert Rowling, market analyst at Kinesis Money.

Spot silver fell 0.3% to USD 19.81 an ounce, trading near its lowest in two years.

Spot platinum was down 0.7% at USD 882.75, while palladium fell by 1.1% to USD 1,939.83.

US markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday.

(Reporting by Arundhati Sarkar in Bengaluru; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and David Goodman)

 

Oil could hit $380 if Russia slashes output over price cap, J.P.Morgan says

July 4 (Reuters) – Brent prices could soar to a “stratospheric” USD 380 a barrel in “the most extreme scenario” of Russia slashing oil production by 5 million barrels per day (bpd) in retaliation to a price cap being considered by the Group of Seven, analysts at J.P.Morgan said in a note dated July 1.

G7 economic powers agreed last week to explore imposing a ban on transporting Russian oil that has been sold above a certain price, aiming to limit Moscow’s ability to fund its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow describes as a “special operation”.

“A USD 50-60 per barrel price cap would likely serve the G7 goals of reducing oil revenues for Russia while assuring barrels continue to flow,” the bank said.

“The most obvious and likely risk” is Russia not cooperating and retaliating by reducing exports of oil, it said, adding that Moscow can cut output by up to 5 million bpd “without excessively hurting its economic interest”.

“Given the high level of stress in the oil market, a cut of 3.0 million bpd could cause global Brent price to jump to USD 190/bbl, while the worst-case scenario, a 5 million bpd cut could drive oil price to a stratospheric USD 380/bbl,” J.P.Morgan said.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said last week that attempts to limit the price of Russian oil could lead to imbalance in the market and push prices higher.

JP Morgan also saw alterative scenarios where China and India do not cooperate with G7 on the price cap, or where Russia fully re-routes exports from the west to the east but loses pricing power.

(Reporting by Deep Kaushik Vakil; editing by Jason Neely)

Cosseted bank bondholders need to feel more pain

LONDON, July 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) – Bank bondholders need to feel more pain. Credit Suisse’s (CSGN) haste this month to repay a hybrid bond at the first opportunity looks odd given the elevated cost of replacing it. There is a rational explanation. The problem is it highlights broader flaws in the USD 212 billion market for bank capital securities.

June 16 was a good day for holders of the Swiss lender’s USD 1.5 billion hybrid. The so-called Additional Tier 1 bond had been trading at 95% of face value, reflecting the risk of the bank leaving it outstanding rather than exercising its right to pay it back early. When the bank chose instead to redeem, the bond’s price recovered. Credit Suisse fared less well. To maintain its capital levels, the struggling lender had to issue a new bond with a 9.75% coupon, some 115 basis points above the likely interest rate on the old one, implying an extra cost of some USD 17 million a year.

After the 2008 crisis, regulators tried to make hybrids, which count towards lenders’ Tier 1 capital ratios, truly equity-like. That meant giving them triggers that convert into shares and coupons that can be cancelled. Structures to incentivize early repayment, such as coupons that crank up when bonds aren’t redeemed early, were also banned. Yet hybrids still contain “call options” on early repayment, and regulators give some leeway on their use. While a handful of lenders like Banco Santander (SAN) have taken a hard-nosed approach, most European banks still pay off Tier 1 bonds on the call date even if it costs more to replace them.

The obvious advantage is cheaper funding. Yet the presumption of redemption also creates risks: troubled banks may end up paying higher interest rates to replace retiring debt, or markets might get spooked when banks choose not to redeem. Credit Suisse also had some unique motives, such as the desire to be rid of liabilities with now-redundant Libor-based coupons.

The coming months may stiffen lenders’ resolve. Recession fears mean the cost of issuing hybrids is rising, giving other banks like UniCredit (CRDI) the dilemma of extending debt or replacing it at higher cost, CreditSights reckons.

Regulators could clear up the uncertainty by insisting, for example, that banks only redeem debt if they can refinance at cheaper rates. They also need to look at hybrids’ other equity-like features, to ensure for example that bonds can defer coupons or be turned into equity before the bank actually goes bust. A rethink that makes life tougher for bondholders is needed.

CONTEXT NEWS

Credit Suisse said on June 16 that it planned to redeem a USD 1.5 billion Additional Tier 1 bond. The security carried a 7.125% coupon, which would have reset to around 8.6% after its call date in July, according to CreditSights. The redeemed bond was replaced with a new issue with a 9.75% yield.

Banks have issued 202 billion euros of Additional Tier 1 securities, according to CreditSights data. The securities count towards lenders’ Tier 1 ratios due to their loss-absorbing features. These include the right to convert them into equity or to defer coupons, as well as their lower-ranking status and potentially permanent maturity.

(By Neil Unmack; Editing by Ed Cropley and Oliver Taslic)

Oil rises as tight supply trumps recession fears

Oil rises as tight supply trumps recession fears

LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) – Oil rose on Monday as supply concerns driven by lower OPEC output, unrest in Libya and sanctions against Russia outweighed fears of a demand-sapping global recession.

Euro zone inflation hit yet another record high in June, strengthening the case for rapid European Central Bank rate increases, while US consumer sentiment hit a record low.

Brent crude rose USD 2.26, or 2%, to USD 113.89 a barrel by 12:47 p.m. ET (1648 GMT) after falling more than USD 1 in early trade. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose USD 2.20, or 2%, to USD 110.63, in thin volume during the US Independence Day holiday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) missed a target to boost output in June, a Reuters survey found.

In OPEC member Libya, authorities declared force majeure at Es Sidr and Ras Lanuf ports as well as the El Feel oilfield on Thursday, saying oil output was down by 865,000 barrels per day (bpd).

Meanwhile, Ecuador’s production has been hit by more than two weeks of unrest that has caused the country to lose nearly 2 million barrels of output, said state-run oil company Petroecuador.

Adding to potential supply woes, a strike this week in Norway could cut supply from Western Europe’s largest oil producer and reduce overall petroleum output by about 8%.

“This backdrop of mounting supply outages is colliding with a possible shortage in spare production capacity among Middle Eastern oil producers,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM, referring to the limited ability of producers to pump more oil.

“And without new oil production hitting markets soon, prices will be forced higher.”

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday called on the OPEC+ producer group to produce more oil to tackle a cost-of-living crisis.

Brent crude has come close this year to topping the 2008 record high of USD 147 a barrel after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to supply concerns.

Soaring energy prices on the back of bans on Russian oil and reduced gas supply have driven inflation to multi-decade highs in some countries and stoked recession fears.

(Reporting by Noah Browning; Additional reporting by Sonali Paul in Melbourne, Emily Chow in Kuala Lumpur and Rod Nickel in Winnipeg; Editing by Jason Neely and David Goodman)

Hedge funds most cautious on dollar in 2 months

Hedge funds most cautious on dollar in 2 months

ORLANDO, Fla., July 4 (Reuters) – Speculators have cut their net long dollar position to a two-month low, but this is not necessarily evidence of a more fundamental souring of sentiment toward the greenback.

At least not yet.

While the ebbing of US rate hike expectations recently has eroded the dollar’s rate appeal, none of its G4 rivals are glowing alternatives. The Federal Reserve is still expected to outgun its peers when it comes to raising interest rates.

Indeed, funds scaling back their bullish bets on the dollar may be simply taking profit, clearing the decks, and preparing to build the net long position up again, which would probably help push the currency to retest June’s 20-year high.

US futures market data show that the hedge funds reduced their net long dollar position against other G10 currencies by USD 2 billion to USD 14 billion in the week to June 28. It was the first decline in three weeks.

Six weeks ago, funds’ net long position nudged USD 21 billion.

Much of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s dollar position shift was in sterling. Funds reduced their net short sterling position by around 10,000 contracts to 53,000 contracts, the smallest net short position since early April.

It marked the fifth week in a row that funds have scaled back their bearish bets against the pound, and was the biggest shift since February.

But sterling is trading heavily and last week dipped back below USD 1.20 after data showed that Britain in the first three months of the year recorded its widest current account deficit since the 1950s, of more than 8% of GDP.

The pound has fallen 10% against the dollar this year. That’s more than the euro’s fall against the dollar, even though the Bank of England has raised rates by more than 100 basis points since December.

A long position is effectively a bet that an asset will rise in value, and a short position is a bet it will fall in value.

EURO PAIN, YEN SHOCK?

The CFTC report also showed that funds retained a net short euro position for the third week in a row but trimmed it slightly. Euro positioning is light, and could go either way, but the pressure appears to be building to the downside.

There’s a growing view that the euro zone is hurtling towards a potentially nasty recession, one that the European Central Bank will struggle to mitigate because inflation is well above target. If that wasn’t enough, the ECB also needs to rein in widening sovereign yield spreads.

According to analysts at Bank of America, rate hikes of 50 basis points has become “the norm for many central banks.” But not the ECB.

“The euro is increasingly being left behind in the global rate hiking cycle. We think that the path of least resistance remains for a weaker euro through the summer,” they wrote on Friday.

Meanwhile, CFTC funds reduced their net short yen position for the seventh consecutive week to the smallest this year at around 52,000 contracts. Their bearish bet on the Japanese currency has more than halved in that time, and is now worth less than USD 5 billion.

BofA analysts reckon the yen will remain under pressure because the Bank of Japan is the “last dove standing”, as it maintains its ‘yield curve control’ policy of buying however many bonds necessary to cap the 10-year yield at 0.25%.

The yen last week slipped to a fresh 24-year low of 137.00 per dollar, and its upside potential in the near term looks limited – funds have been reducing their short position for several weeks, yet the yen has continued to slide.

But Robin Brooks at the Institute for International Finance warns that yen bears are about to get a “harsh reality check” if the world slips into recession.

“The Yen always strengthens when adverse shocks hit. We’re about to see a big unwind and reversal of recent Yen weakness…” Brooks tweeted on Sunday.

(By Jamie McGeever. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

Philippines fully awards $273 million T-bill offer at higher yields

MANILA, July 4 (Reuters) – Following are the results of the Philippine Bureau of the Treasury’s (BTr) auction of T-bills on Monday:

* BTr fully awards 15 billion pesos ($272.98 million) offer against total tenders of 32.759 billion pesos

* BTr awards 5 billion pesos of 91-day T-bills at avg rate of 1.908% versus previous auction avg of 1.855%

* BTr awards 5 billion pesos of 182-day T-bills at avg rate of 2.608% versus previous auction avg of 2.400%

* BTr awards 5 billion pesos of 364-day T-bills at avg rate of 2.811% versus previous auction avg of 2.630%

* Details are on the BTr’s website www.treasury.gov.ph.

($1 = 54.95 Philippine pesos)

(Reporting by Enrico Dela Cruz)

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