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Archives: Reuters Articles

Big tech earnings, US jobs data highlight busy week for markets

Big tech earnings, US jobs data highlight busy week for markets

NEW YORK – A packed upcoming week for markets will test a US stocks rebound, with investors focused on a wave of corporate results led by Apple and Microsoft, while the prospect of global trade developments threatens to cause volatility at any time.

The monthly US employment report, data on first-quarter US economic growth, and an inflation update add to the potential market-sensitive events in the coming week, as investors weigh whether the recent strength suggests the worst of a tariff-induced equities tumble is over.

With the S&P 500 on pace for a solid week of gains, the US benchmark index has pared its recent slide by about half but remains down some 10% from its February record high.

Sentiment for equities has been lifted this week by signals of easing in the Trump administration’s trade stance, including possible de-escalation with China. But the situation remains fluid and fresh developments on tariffs could undermine the market gains.

“There seems to be some potential for compromise on the tariff situation,” which has supported the recent rally, said Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.

But stocks will remain sensitive to “the news flow that day,” Mullaney said. “If it’s positive on tariffs, the market goes up. If it’s negative on tariffs, the market goes down.”

Investors are bracing for more twists and turns on trade after President Donald Trump this month paused many of the heftiest import tariffs on other countries until July. Trump’s pullback came after his April 2 announcement of sweeping levies set off severe stock volatility and rattled the bond market.

Tariff uncertainty will be a critical topic for upcoming corporate reports.

About 180 S&P 500 companies representing over 40% of the index’s market value are set to post quarterly results in the coming week, according to UBS. Chief among them are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, four of the “Magnificent Seven” megacap tech and growth companies whose shares have faltered in 2025 after putting up massive gains the prior two years.

With over one-third of S&P 500 companies having reported, profits are on pace to beat expectations for the period. S&P 500 earnings are on pace to have climbed 9.7% in the first quarter from a year ago, up from an estimate of an 8% gain on April 1, according to LSEG IBES.

“People were expecting the worst, and that typically happens when markets retrench,” said King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management in San Francisco. “But the numbers really haven’t been that bad.”

Still, some companies have pointed to challenges ahead. Consumer staples company Procter & Gamble, soda and snacks company PepsiCo, and medical equipment maker Thermo Fisher all cut their annual profit forecasts.

Investors also will watch the extent to which the new global trade regime is hitting economic data, with broad concerns the new tariffs will drive up prices and slow growth.

Data in the coming week includes gross domestic product for the first quarter, and the March reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation reading.

The monthly US jobs report, due on May 2, could provide the biggest test for markets. The labor market has demonstrated stability in recent months, and employment is expected to have climbed by 135,000 jobs in April, according to a Reuters poll.

But doubts about the economic outlook are being fueled by dour readings in consumer sentiment and other surveys, with investors eager to see if such troubling “soft data” will translate into weakness in reports seen as giving more concrete evidence about the economy.

“If the consumer is going to be the engine of ongoing growth in the US, it puts the burden of proof onto the jobs report,” said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Rod Nickel)

 

RPT-ANALYSIS-Yen, BOJ’s rate policy may remain focus in Japan-US trade talks

RPT-ANALYSIS-Yen, BOJ’s rate policy may remain focus in Japan-US trade talks

Repeats Friday story, no change to text

Japan’s finance minister tight-lipped on meeting with US Treasury’s Bessent

Kato says currency talks will be tied to trade negotiations

Analysts see remark as leaving scope for US pressure on yen

Kato said he explained Japan’s wage, inflation issues to Bessent

Remark suggests BOJ rate hikes remain in focus, analysts say

By Leika Kihara

WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) – Japan may have averted U.S. pressure for a stronger yen in bilateral finance talks on Thursday, but a closer look at officials’ descriptions of the meeting suggests currencies and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate policy may remain key factors in broader trade negotiations.

Speaking to reporters after his first face-to-face talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said they did not discuss exchange-rate targets or a framework to manage yen rates.

There was no accusation made by the U.S. that Japan was intentionally weakening the yen, according to a Japanese finance ministry official who accompanied Kato.

But Kato was tight-lipped on the details of the 50-minute meeting with Bessent, which was held on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings in Washington.

When asked whether the U.S. made any specific requests to Japan, Kato said: “I can’t comment because that goes straight into actual discussions.”

Still, there were some hints.

For one, Kato said Japan and the U.S. will continue close and constructive dialogue on exchange rates “in relation to the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations” – language some analysts saw as a sign Washington could make demands on the yen as part of broader trade talks.

The meeting preceded top Japanese trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa’s scheduled visit to Washington next week for a second round of bilateral trade talks that may prove tortuous for the U.S.

President Donald Trump’s focus on addressing the U.S. trade deficit and his past remarks accusing Japan of intentionally maintaining a weak yen, have fueled market expectations that Tokyo will face pressure to strengthen the yen’s value against the dollar and give U.S. manufacturers a competitive advantage.

“President Trump strongly believes that Japan and China have been intentionally depreciating their currencies. There’s little sign of him changing that view, so markets remain cautious,” said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute.

“If next week’s trade negotiations between Akazawa and Bessent do not go well, Washington’s attention could turn towards exchange rates again,” he said.

The Treasury Department said in a readout on Friday that Bessent and Kato had held productive discussions across a broad range of bilateral issues, including reciprocal trade. They “affirmed their intention to continue their ongoing close consultations regarding issues related to exchange rates,” it said.

BOJ RATE HIKES

Another key sign was Kato’s remark that he explained to Bessent Japan’s recent economic developments “including wage hikes.” He added that in doing so, he also talked about Japan’s “price developments.”

That suggests discussions may have touched upon Japan’s monetary policy, as both wages and prices are key to the timing and pace of further interest rate hikes by the BOJ.

Sources have told Reuters the slow pace at which the BOJ is raising borrowing costs from ultra-low levels could come under fire in bilateral trade talks.

Steady rises in wages and inflation were key to the BOJ’s decision to exit a massive stimulus last year and raise its short-term interest rate to 0.5% in January.

With inflation exceeding its 2% target for three consecutive years and big firms continuing to offer bumper pay hikes this year, the BOJ has signaled its readiness to keep raising rates.

But the central bank’s rate-hike path has been complicated by Trump’s tariffs, which threaten to derail Japan’s fragile economic recovery and have prodded analysts to push back the expected timing of the next rate increase.

While warning of heightening economic uncertainty, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday repeated the central bank’s readiness to keep hiking rates.

“It’s notable that Kato and Bessent likely discussed Japan’s wage developments,” said Katsuhiro Oshima, chief economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, adding that Ueda’s remarks suggest the BOJ remains on course to hike rates.

“Wage hikes would be a win for Japan’s economy, a win for the U.S. from the perspective of exchange rates, a win for Japanese households which will see purchasing power increase, and a win for the BOJ by making it easier to raise rates.”

(Reporting by Leika Kihara;
Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao)

((leika.kihara@thomsonreuters.com; +813-6441-1828; Reuters Messaging: leika.kihara.reuters.com@reuters.net))

China tells G20 meeting world economic growth insufficient

China tells G20 meeting world economic growth insufficient

BEIJING – China’s finance minister told a G20 meeting that the current world economic growth momentum was insufficient, with tariff and trade wars further impacting economic and financial stability, according to a ministry readout on Friday.

Lan Foan called on all parties to further improve the international economic and financial system by strengthening multilateral cooperation.

China advocates the settlement of trade and tariff disputes through dialogue and consultation on an equal footing, he said in his speech at the meeting in Washington.

Lan also urged for better implementation of the debt treatment mechanism under the Common Framework, and said all parties should pool more resources for Africa’s development and strengthen Africa’s capacity-building.

Lan held bilateral meetings and exchanges with several representatives, including from South Africa, the European Commission, Pakistan, Germany, South Korea, Indonesia, Britain, Japan and World Bank,

The meetings were mainly to discuss views on the macroeconomic situation, key issues of the G20 fiscal channels and bilateral cooperation, the readout said.

(Reporting by Liz Lee and Beijing newsroom; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Shri Navaratnam)

Dollar rally unravels as investors shrug off Trump U-turns

Dollar rally unravels as investors shrug off Trump U-turns

NEW YORK – The dollar staged a broad retreat on Thursday, as investor gloom over the lack of progress toward defusing the US-China trade war reasserted itself following an interlude of optimism the previous day.

US assets, including the dollar, rallied on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump backed down from threats to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and appeared to soften his stance on China.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said separately that the de facto embargo on US-China trade was unsustainable, but that the US would not move first in lowering its levies of more than 100% on Chinese goods.

By Thursday, those dollar gains had unraveled. China said no negotiations had been held on the economy and trade and it urged the US to lift all unilateral tariff measures if it really wished to resolve the issue, leaving investors roughly where they were earlier in the week in terms of clarity.

However, Trump maintained on Thursday that trade talks with China are underway. “They had a meeting this morning,” he told reporters, declining to say to whom he was referring.

“It seems like there’s a gulf as wide as the Pacific Ocean between how the US and China are viewing trade,” said Matt Weller, head of market research at StoneX. “And I think as long as that gulf remains, the rallies in the dollar might be short-lived.”

The yen led the charge higher, leaving the dollar down 0.54% on the day at 142.700, but still above the 140-mark breached last week.

The dollar has been the biggest casualty of Trump’s on-off tariffs, dropping 4.8% so far in April, which would mark its largest monthly decline since November 2022.

Investors had been shaken over the last few days when Trump made a series of verbal attacks on Powell over his reluctance to cut interest rates until justified by economic data.

Such has been the investor pullback from the dollar that it is on course for its worst start to the year against a basket of currencies since the 1970s, according to LSEG data.

“There were hopes of a thaw in the US-driven trade dispute with absolutely everyone,” said Trade Nation strategist David Morrison.

“(Trump) softened his tone towards China, calling on them to come and negotiate. But it turns out it takes two to tango, and for now, the Chinese leadership has decided to let the Trump administration stew in its own mess,” he added.

The Swiss franc, which is around its strongest against the dollar in more than a decade as a result of hefty safe-haven flows this month, rose, leaving the US currency down 0.33% on the day at 0.82795 francs.

The pound rose 0.55% to USD 1.3325. UK finance minister Rachel Reeves said on Thursday she was confident Britain could reach a trade deal with the United States.

Bitcoin tracked the dollar lower, falling 0.23% on the day to USD 93,469. Meanwhile, Trump’s meme coin surged 33% overnight after the online promotion of a gala dinner with the president for the top 220 buyers of the USD TRUMP coin. It is still only worth roughly a quarter of what it was at its launch in January.

(Reporting by Hannah Lang in New York and Amanda Cooper in London; additional reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing Jamie Freed, Kate Mayberry, Kirsten Donovan, Barbara Lewis and Richard Chang)

Oil prices settle up on weaker US dollar, mixed economic news

Oil prices settle up on weaker US dollar, mixed economic news

NEW YORK – Oil prices edged up on Thursday as investors weighed a weaker US dollar, potential OPEC+ output increase, mixed economic news, conflicting US tariff signals and news from the Russia-Ukraine war.

Brent crude futures rose 43 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at USD 66.55 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 52 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at USD 62.79.

In the US, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits rose marginally last week, suggesting a resilient labor market despite economic turbulence caused by tariffs on imported goods.

Businesses are increasing prices and cutting financial guidance due to higher costs stemming from US President Donald Trump’s trade war, which has also roiled global supply chains.

US Federal Reserve officials indicated in television interviews they see no urgency to change monetary policy as they seek more information to determine how trade tariffs are affecting the economy.

“Markets are still trying to make sense of the data, as employment stats show a resilient labor market while the Fed tempers bullishness with commentary that unemployment rates may be affected by tariffs,” analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber and Associates said in a note.

The US dollar staged a broad retreat on Thursday, as investor gloom over the lack of any real progress towards defusing the US-China trade war reasserted itself.

A weaker US currency makes dollar-priced commodities like oil less expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Supply uncertainty

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Thursday he was ready to travel to Europe for talks on Tehran’s nuclear program. France indicated European powers were ready for dialogue if Tehran showed it was seriously engaged.

Successful talks with Europe and the US would likely result in the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Iran is the third biggest oil producer in OPEC behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Trump criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday after Russia pounded Kyiv with missiles and drones overnight, saying “Vladimir, STOP!”

On Wednesday, Trump said Ukraine’s leader was hampering peace talks on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine, which could allow more Russian oil to flow to global markets. Russia is one of the world’s biggest oil producers along with the US and Saudi Arabia.

Still, many European countries are trying to phase out imports of Russian oil due to the war. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the commission will present a roadmap in the next two weeks on keeping an EU pledge to quit Russian fossil fuels by 2027.

Russia is a member of the OPEC+ group. Reuters reported on Wednesday that several OPEC+ members had suggested the group accelerate oil output increases for a second month in June.

“They would be stuffing barrels into a global economy that is already struggling with US tariffs and a trade war between the two largest global economies – the US vs. China,” Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, said in a note.

“OPEC+ would be hard pressed to pick a worse time to add barrels,” Yawger said.

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York, Robert Harvey in London and Colleen Howe in Beijing; Editing by David Goodman and David Gregorio)

Dollar jumps after Bessent forecasts de-escalation in US-China trade tensions

Dollar jumps after Bessent forecasts de-escalation in US-China trade tensions

The dollar regained some ground on Tuesday after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a closed-door meeting that he believes there will be a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions.

Bessent said neither side sees the status quo as sustainable, adding that the Trump administration’s goal was not to decouple the world’s two largest economies, according to a person who heard his presentation to investors at a JP Morgan conference.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six other major currencies, was up 0.6% at 98.937, after sinking as low as 97.923 in the previous session, a level not seen since March 2022.

“There are signs that pressure is mounting on the White House to calm things down,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive.

The dollar hovered around multi-year lows versus the euro and the Swiss franc on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve raised concerns about the central bank’s independence.

Doubts about Fed independence threaten the dollar’s value as a reserve currency, with analysts noting possible divestments from what many consider over-exposure to US assets.

Trump ramped up his criticism of Fed chief Jerome Powell on Monday, calling him a “major loser” and demanding that he lower interest rates “NOW” or risk an economic slowdown.

“The firing of Jerome Powell would be catastrophic for the US dollar and confidence in US capital markets in general,” said Button.

On Friday, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said the president and his team were continuing to study whether they could fire Powell, who said last week the central bank can afford to be patient in judging how to set policy.

“The current worst-case scenario for the greenback is that Powell caves in and delivers an emergency rate cut, although that remains a low-probability event,” said Francesco Pesole, strategist at ING.

Barclays lifted its euro/dollar forecast to USD 1.15 based on the assessment of the removal of the Fed chair as a low-likelihood event, but argued that further revisions could therefore soon be needed should the situation escalate.

China on Monday accused Washington of abusing tariffs and warned countries against striking a broader economic deal with the United States at its expense.

The dollar was up 0.42% at 141.470 yen, after earlier falling below the psychological 140 level for the first time since mid-September.

While some analysts bet Washington will pressure Tokyo to help prop up the yen, Japan sees little scope for direct action.

“Underlying dynamics differ and the yen’s rise looks more fragile than the euro’s,” said Shusuke Yamada, forex strategist at BofA Japan, after flagging that both currencies gained about 12% against the US dollar.

“The yen’s rise has accompanied a bigger rise in speculative positioning and increasing focus on a potential US-Japan currency deal,” while “structural outflows from Japan have gone out of market radar,” he added.

The greenback rose 1.17% to 0.819 Swiss franc, having reached a decade-low of 0.8042 in the previous session.

The euro fell 0.73% to USD 1.1424, after jumping to USD 1.1573 on Monday for the first time since November 2021.

(Reporting by Hannah Lang in New York; additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Bernadette Baum, and Andrea Ricci)

 

Long-term US yields decline on mixed safe-haven demand

Long-term US yields decline on mixed safe-haven demand

NEW YORK – US Treasury long-term yields declined on Tuesday, reversing some of Monday’s bond selloff, as fears that President Donald Trump’s trade policies could trigger a US economic slowdown provided some demand for US government bonds.

Yields, which move inversely to prices, had jumped on Monday as Trump’s calls to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell caused market concerns over US economic stability and institutional strength. While those worries continued to agitate markets on Tuesday, bonds benefited from some safe-haven demand due to continued fears of an impending hit to US economic activity because of Trump’s tariffs on key US trade partners.

“You have a push and pull dynamic,” said Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Manulife.

“You have forces that are potentially negative for Treasuries, as in higher yields driven by the US losing some of its glamour and glitter [that come from] … being the primary if not sole safe haven, but at the same time Treasuries are still used inside the US as well as by many people outside the US, as a source of safety,” he said.

Tuesday’s session, light on economic data, saw investors focusing on remarks from Fed officials after Trump in recent days accused the Fed chair of being slow to ease rates and hinted that he might try to remove him.

The attacks on Fed chair Powell were “undermining what little (market) confidence still existed out there,” said Dean Smith, chief strategist and portfolio manager at FolioBeyond.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said trust in the central bank was one of its greatest powers. This credibility has built up over time “by being politically independent and as objective as human beings can be,” he said. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed’s monetary policy independence was foundational and the key to better economic outcomes.

The attacks on the Fed could exacerbate existing concerns over Trump’s erratic policymaking and its impact on foreign investor appetite for Treasuries, analysts said.

“With increasing rhetoric from the administration admonishing the Fed to cut rates and the markets entertaining intensifying discussions about the possibility of replacing the Fed chair, we don’t expect a rush back into the market from abroad,” BNY’s Americas Macro Strategist John Velis said in a note. “The haven status of such assets is increasingly in question.”

The 10-year Treasury term premium, a measure of the compensation investors demand for the risk of holding long-dated US government debt, rose to 0.84 basis points on Monday, its highest level since 2014, according to the latest available data by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Benchmark 10-year yields were last at 4.391%, about one and a half basis points lower than Monday, while 30-year yields declined by about three basis points to 4.881%. Two-year yields were last at 3.809%, up from 3.752% on Monday.

The closely watched yield curve that plots two-year yields against 10-year yields flattened to 58 basis points, after hitting an over three-year high of about 65 basis points on Monday. That curve has been steepening meaningfully over the past few weeks, suggesting investors anticipate high interest rates over the long term, following an initial period of monetary policy easing.

On Tuesday, the Treasury sold USD 69 billion in two-year notes, part of a total of USD 183 billion in Treasury issuance this week.

The two-year notes were sold with a high yield of 3.795%, which was nearly half a basis point above where the market was at the time of bidding, in a sign investors demanded higher compensation to absorb the debt sale.

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

 

Gold takes a breather after hitting USD 3,500 on higher stocks, stronger dollar

Gold takes a breather after hitting USD 3,500 on higher stocks, stronger dollar

Gold fell more than 1% on Tuesday after briefly touching a record high of USD 3,500 earlier in the session, as comments by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinting at a thaw in US-China trade tensions fueled optimism in equities and strengthened the dollar.

Spot gold fell 1.5% to USD 3,372.68 an ounce by 3:46 p.m. EDT (1946 GMT), after rising as much as 2.2% to USD 3,500.05 earlier in the session. Meanwhile, US gold futures settled 0.2% lower at USD 3,419.40.

“Comments (of the US Treasury Secretary) this afternoon that hinted towards a possible thaw in the trade war with China, was really when (gold) started to sell off,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Bessent said Tuesday that he believes there will be a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions, though he described the future negotiations with Beijing as a “slog” that has yet to begin.

US stocks jumped more than 2%, and the dollar rebounded, buoyed by Bessent’s comments, after he called the tariff standoff unsustainable.

The dollar index rose 0.7% against its rivals, making bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.

“Rallies in the stock market and the US dollar index today are negative for the gold market,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

Meanwhile, spot gold, up 29% so far this year, notched its 28th record high on Tuesday as it surged to the USD 3,500-per-ounce mark for the first time.

JPMorgan expects the rally to continue, projecting that gold will surpass USD 4,000 an ounce next year amid rising recession risks, higher US tariffs, and persistent US-China trade tensions, the bank said in a note on Tuesday.

Traders will also be watching speeches by several Federal Reserve officials later this week, hoping for insights into future monetary policy amid concerns about the central bank’s independence.

Non-yielding gold acts as a hedge against global uncertainty and inflation and tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment.

Gold’s relative strength index (RSI) stands at 74, indicating that the metal is overbought.

Spot silver fell 0.7% to USD 32.47 an ounce, platinum was down 0.8% at USD 953.64, and palladium jumped 0.6% to USD 932.75.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by David Evans and Mohammed Safi Shamsi)

 

US markets’ crisis point hinges on a triple threat

US markets’ crisis point hinges on a triple threat

WASHINGTON – A selloff in US stocks, long-term government bonds, and the dollar clearly traces back to policy choices by President Donald Trump’s administration. Recent moves spawn a trio of worries: first, that a trade war will hit business and destabilize the United States’ role in the world; second, that a USD 4.5 trillion tax cut plan could explode an already-historic fiscal deficit; and, finally, that pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could warp monetary policy. Trump has not yet forced an irrevocable break, but cracks are spreading at an alarming pace.

Investors are piling into short-term US debt even as longer-term Treasuries sell off, a potential sign of hesitancy to bear the risk of erratic policy shifts. Yields on 20-year bonds topped 4.9% on Monday. Similarly, cash is moving into non-US assets as the dollar tumbles.

It makes some sense: Trump has imposed, then partially lifted, tariffs of a magnitude not seen in over a century, sparking worries of a break with the global community. The consequences are slow to filter through into economic data, but early signs are arising. South Korean exports to the US tumbled 14% in April’s first 20 days from the year before, particularly hitting cars and parts.

The President places the onus on Powell, dubbing him “Mr. Too Late” for not lowering interest rates and warning that an economic slowdown could result. The Fed chair is clear that he prioritizes keeping price pressures anchored — making any move unlikely as the public’s inflation expectations shift well above the Fed’s target.

Trump has pondered firing Powell in a legally uncertain maneuver that would threaten the independence safeguarding the central bank’s credibility, though advisers, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have pushed back, the Wall Street Journal reported. Even if that one pillar of economic management remains intact, though, Republicans’ push for gigantic tax cuts is continuing, just as the US budget deficit has widened to a near-record USD 1.3 trillion in the six months since October.

Negotiations are underway to stanch the red ink with spending cuts or revenue. But the US sustains its fiscal profligacy thanks to international investors who treat Treasuries as the world’s risk-free asset. If they demand a meaningful risk premium, financing USD 36.6 trillion in national debt may become very expensive. With Trump pushing to bend monetary policy and the budget deficit potentially moving in the wrong direction, uncertainty is only rising.

Despite the gloom, US capital markets still have no clear substitute. An orderly transition when Powell’s term ends in 2026 could smooth institutional frictions. And tariff-reducing trade deals could ameliorate the worst of the economic damage. But the slowly creeping cracks point to weaknesses that could explode if any one policy move pushes to a critical point.

CONTEXT NEWS

Long-term treasury yields climbed once again on April 21 after peaking earlier in the month, with 20-year Treasury yields rising above 4.9%.

President Donald Trump has leveled criticism at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, posting on social media that he should lower interest rates. Trump has discussed whether he could fire Powell before the end of his term in 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The S&P 500 Index fell 2.8% by 12:30 p.m. ET on April 21 amid a lack of progress towards agreements with US trading partners that would lower tariffs introduced earlier this month.

The Republican-controlled House of Representatives and Senate have started work on drafting a package to advance Trump’s legislative agenda, with debate beginning over spending cuts needed to offset the cost of extending and expanding tax cuts for individuals and businesses.

(Editing by Jonathan Guilford and Pranav Kiran)

 

Gold extends record run, breaks above USD 3,400/oz on safe-haven rush

Gold extends record run, breaks above USD 3,400/oz on safe-haven rush

Gold surged above USD 3,400 to a record high on Monday, as the dollar weakened and uncertainty over the economic impact of US-China trade tensions spurred demand for safe-haven bullion.

Spot gold rose 2.7% to USD 3,417.62 an ounce at 1:46 p.m. ET (1746 GMT). Prices hit a record high of USD 3,430.18 earlier in the session.

US gold futures settled 2.9% higher at USD 3,425.30.

The dollar tumbled to its lowest level in three years as investor confidence in the US economy took another hit over President Donald Trump’s comments about Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell. A weaker dollar makes bullion more appealing for other currency holders. USD/

On the trade war front, China accused Washington of abusing tariffs and warned countries against striking a broader economic deal with the US at its expense.

“As tariff tensions continue to move at a fevered pitch, we continue to see gold prices move to the upside as a safe haven response,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

“There’ll be pullbacks and profit-taking at times, but we still believe in the underlying trend to be on sideways to higher trajectory.”

Gold, which is considered a hedge against economic uncertainties and known to be a highly liquid asset, has hit multiple record highs and gained more than USD 700 since the start of 2025. It surpassed USD 3,300 last Wednesday and its strong momentum pushed it up by another USD 100 in just a few days.

“These much bigger daily price moves in gold are one early clue this very mature bull market run is close to climaxing and that a near-term market top may be close at hand, from a time perspective, more so than a price perspective,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

Among other metals, spot silver was steady at USD 32.60 an ounce, platinum was down 0.6% at USD 961.61 and palladium slipped 3% to USD 934.25.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Daksh Grover in Bengaluru; Editing by Jane Merriman, Bill Berkrot, and Shounak Dasgupta)

 

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