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NEW YORK, Aug 22 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve policy has sparked big moves in markets this year, but options traders expect few fireworks around the central bank’s annual symposium this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Options positioning shows traders expect a 1.4% move in the S&P 500 on Aug. 26, the day Fed Chairman Powell is set to give his speech, according to Matt Amberson, principal at options analytics firm ORATS. That is only slightly above the expected 1.0% daily move options are implying for stocks over the next month.

“The equity volatility market appears to be treating Jackson Hole as a non-event,” said Garrett DeSimone, head quant at OptionMetrics.

While there is still time for volatility expectations to pick up ahead of the event, for now, options pricing reflect “relatively low pricing for crash risk,” DeSimone said.

Market participants gave a range of reasons on why expectations for volatility may be muted. The market has had a heaping dose of Fed-speak in recent weeks, with policymakers pushing against expectations of peaking inflation and a dovish pivot from the Fed, giving investors a clearer picture of the central bank’s thinking.

And while markets broadly expect the Fed to raise rates by another 50 to 75 basis points when it meets again in September, Powell’s outlook on future policy will likely be colored by economic data reports that are due that month, including key numbers on inflation and employment.

“Everybody is kind of on the same page: we are in a tightening process, that process is likely going to gradually slow,” said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

“For markets to be pricing in higher volatility, it usually means they are expecting surprises … I just think no one is expecting any earth-shattering revelations at that meeting,” Frederick said.

On average, Fed Chairs’ Jackson Hole speeches have not been big market movers in recent years. Only once in the last 10 years has the S&P 500 logged a greater than 1% move on the day the Jackson Hole symposium heard from the Fed chief.

Though stocks have been far more volatile than normal this year, market gyrations have eased in recent months alongside a rebound that has seen the S&P 500 gain 15% from its mid-June lows.

The Cboe Volatility Index, an options-based indicator that reflects demand for protection against drops in the stock market, is at around 20, compared to a high of nearly 40 reached earlier this year.

Still, some market watchers believe an even more hawkish-than-expected view from Powell could hit stocks.

Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting showed on Wednesday that policymakers were committed to raising rates as high as necessary to tame inflation. Several Fed speakers, including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have since stressed that policymakers need to keep raising borrowing costs to bring surging prices under control.

“I sense they are probably setting the stage for (Powell), and his speech is a little bit more on the hawkish side,” said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities. “If it is … we could see a selloff in equities.”

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Daniel Wallis)

Aug 22 (Reuters) – European shares fell to their lowest level in nearly one month on Monday as worries about tightening gas supplies from Russia, hawkish signals from the European Central Bank and weak economic outlook weighed on investors’ minds.

The continent-wide STOXX 600 dropped 1.0% to touch its lowest level since July 28.

Russia will halt natural gas supplies to Europe for three days at the end of the month, energy giant Gazprom GAZP.MM said on Friday, piling pressure on the continent as it seeks to refuel ahead of winter.

Uniper UN01.DE, Germany’s top importer of Russian gas, declined 7.7% to hover near a record low, while its parent Fortum FORTUM.HE fell 4.4%. Germany’s DAX index .GDAXI tumbled 2.3% for its worst session in nearly seven weeks.

“Europe’s energy crisis is just getting bad news all over the board. Heatwaves have put a strain on supplies and it seems any disruptions in the winter could be devastating,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

The focus is on euro zone flash purchasing manager index (PMI) data, due on Tuesday, and minutes of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) last policy meeting on Thursday that are likely to sound hawkish. O/R

The ECB must keep raising rates even if a recession in Germany is increasingly likely, as inflation will stay uncomfortably high through 2023, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel told a German newspaper. nF9N2Z000N

Markets currently price in a 60 basis point hike for September and a combined 130 basis points of moves for the remainder of the year.

After rallying more than 11% since mid-June lows, European markets have sagged in recent days as investors fret over the impact of soaring inflation and tightening financial conditions on the economic outlook.

Credit Suisse CSGN.S slipped 0.8% to a fresh record low. The Swiss lender appointed Deutsche Bank’s Dixit Joshi as chief financial officer and promoted EMEA chief Francesca McDonagh to chief operating officer.

French supermarket retailer Carrefour CARR.PA fell 0.9% after saying it would freeze prices on 100 products to help people tackle soaring inflation in the country.

Shares of world No.2 cinema operator Cineworld CINE.L plummeted 21.4% after it confirmed a possible Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in the United States.

German sporting goods maker Adidas ADSGn.DE fell 5.2% as it unexpectedly said Chief Executive Kasper Rorsted would leave his post next year.

(Reporting by Anisha Sircar and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva, Dhanya Ann Thoppil and Mike Harrison)

Aug 22 (Reuters) – European shares fell on Monday, with major regional markets in the red, as investors fretted about hawkish signals from European Central Bank policymakers.

The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.2%. Chemicals, autos and tech stocks led declines, while miners inched 0.4% higher.

The European Central Bank (ECB) must keep raising rates even if a recession in Germany is increasingly likely, as inflation will stay uncomfortably high through 2023, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel told a German newspaper.

Focus is on minutes of the ECB’s last policy meeting due this week that are likely to sound hawkish, as well as on euro zone flash PMIs due Tuesday.

Russia will halt natural gas supplies to Europe for three days at the end of the month, state energy giant Gazprom said on Friday. Oil stocks fell 0.7%.

Shares in Fresenius and its dialysis unit Fresenius Medical Care rose 5.2% and 2.1%, respectively, in early trade after the German healthcare group said its long-serving boss, Stephan Sturm, would quit.

(Reporting by Anisha Sircar in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva)

NEW YORK, Aug 22 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve policy has sparked big moves in markets this year, but options traders expect few fireworks around the central bank’s annual symposium this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Options positioning shows traders expect a 1.4% move in the S&P 500 on Aug. 26, the day Fed Chairman Powell is set to give his speech, according to Matt Amberson, principal at options analytics firm ORATS. That is only slightly above the expected 1.0% daily move options are implying for stocks over the next month.

“The equity volatility market appears to be treating Jackson Hole as a non-event,” said Garrett DeSimone, head quant at OptionMetrics.

While there is still time for volatility expectations to pick up ahead of the event, for now, options pricing reflect “relatively low pricing for crash risk,” DeSimone said.

Market participants gave a range of reasons on why expectations for volatility may be muted. The market has had a heaping dose of Fed-speak in recent weeks, with policymakers pushing against expectations of peaking inflation and a dovish pivot from the Fed, giving investors a clearer picture of the central bank’s thinking.

And while markets broadly expect the Fed to raise rates by another 50 to 75 basis points when it meets again in September, Powell’s outlook on future policy will likely be colored by economic data reports that are due that month, including key numbers on inflation and employment.

“Everybody is kind of on the same page: we are in a tightening process, that process is likely going to gradually slow,” said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

“For markets to be pricing in higher volatility, it usually means they are expecting surprises … I just think no one is expecting any earth-shattering revelations at that meeting,” Frederick said.

On average, Fed Chairs’ Jackson Hole speeches have not been big market movers in recent years. Only once in the last 10 years has the S&P 500 logged a greater than 1% move on the day the Jackson Hole symposium heard from the Fed chief.

Though stocks have been far more volatile than normal this year, market gyrations have eased in recent months alongside a rebound that has seen the S&P 500 gain 15% from its mid-June lows.

The Cboe Volatility Index, an options-based indicator that reflects demand for protection against drops in the stock market, is at around 20, compared to a high of nearly 40 reached earlier this year.

Still, some market watchers believe an even more hawkish-than-expected view from Powell could hit stocks.

Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting showed on Wednesday that policymakers were committed to raising rates as high as necessary to tame inflation. Several Fed speakers, including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have since stressed that policymakers need to keep raising borrowing costs to bring surging prices under control.

“I sense they are probably setting the stage for (Powell), and his speech is a little bit more on the hawkish side,” said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities. “If it is … we could see a selloff in equities.”

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Daniel Wallis)