Gold flat as cautious investors await US inflation data

Sept 13 (Reuters) – Gold prices were flat on Tuesday, as cautious investors awaited US inflation data to gauge the size of the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate hikes.

Spot gold was little changed at USD 1,724.19 per ounce by 0729 GMT. Prices had hit a two-week high of USD 1,734.99 on Monday as the dollar fell.

US gold futures were down 0.3% at USD 1,734.90.

“There are expectations for inflation to become a lot softer and that could help gold actually run a little bit further as expectations could then be for less aggressive Fed hikes after the September meeting,” said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.

“For us to be confident that bulls have regained control, we probably need to see gold break above USD 1,740.”

US consumer price data, due at 1230 GMT, is expected to show headline inflation rose 8.1% year-over-year in August versus 8.5% in July.

The reading puts focus on the Fed’s Sept. 20-21 policy meeting, where the US central bank is widely expected to deliver another 75-basis-point interest rate hike.

“An upside surprise in US inflation could see gold tanking like a house of cards as aggressive rate hike expectations beyond September mount,” Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM said in a note, adding, there is strong support around USD 1,700.

Even though gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the bullion while boosts the dollar, in which the precious metal is priced.

For the day, the dollar index was down 0.2% hovering near its lowest level since Aug. 26, touched in the previous session.

Spot silver fell 0.5% to USD 19.69 per ounce, having recorded its biggest one-day percentage gain since February 2021 on Monday.

Platinum dipped 0.2% to USD 905.15 and palladium shed 2.7% to USD 2,203.77, falling as much as 4.7% earlier.

(Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Uttaresh.V)

Gold, silver jump as dollar dips ahead of US CPI data

Sept 12 (Reuters) – Gold jumped about 1% and silver rallied over 5% on Monday, bolstered by a weaker dollar, while investors awaited key inflation data for cues on the pace of interest rate hikes by the US central bank.

Spot gold rose 0.7% to USD 1,728.57 per ounce by 1:53 p.m. EST (1753 GMT), after rising to its highest since Aug. 30 at USD 1,734.99.

US gold futures settled 7% higher at USD 1,740.6.

European Central Bank officials have signalled further rate hikes to rein in inflation, which has supported the euro and pressured the dollar and is in part responsible for some strength in the gold market, said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

The dollar index retreated, making gold more attractive for overseas buyers.

Investors braced for Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index reading that is likely to show August prices rose at an 8.1% pace over the year, versus an 8.5% print for July.

“We may be seeing traders position for a favourable US inflation report tomorrow which could provide a bigger lift again if we see further softening,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.

Gold is traditionally considered an inflation hedge, but rate hikes translate into a higher opportunity cost for holding bullion, which pays no interest.

Gold’s moves seemed to be overshadowed by silver, which usually follows gold but can be additionally influenced by economic cues given its industrial uses.

Spot silver jumped more than 5% to its highest since Aug. 17 at USD 19.80 an ounce.

High Ridge’s Meger termed it a “dramatic short covering rally.”

The metal may also be taking cues from an overall risk-on rally, Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index, said in a note.

Palladium advanced 3.7% to USD 2,253.55 per ounce after hitting its highest since Aug. 12.

Platinum rose 2.5% to USD 903.16.

(Reporting by Arundhati Sarkar in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Arpan Varghese, Rahul Paswan; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri, Vinay Dwivedi and Maju Samuel)

Profit or pivot? Funds blink on hawkish Fed bets

ORLANDO, Fla., Sept 12 (Reuters) – Hedge funds have slashed their record wager on rising US interest rates by a quarter, but it remains to be seen whether this marks a turning point in their hawkish Fed outlook.

If the moves in US rate futures markets in the last few days are any guide – the Fed’s implied terminal rate rose to almost 4% – the wider trading community still believes the Fed will continue front-loading rate hikes until it feels confident that inflation is firmly headed back toward target.

The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission report for the week to Sept. 6 shows that speculators and leveraged accounts cut their net short position in three-month ‘SOFR’ rate futures by 255,583 contracts to 808,229 contracts.

That was a record weekly move, from a record net short of 1.06 million contracts the week before.

A short position is essentially a wager that an asset’s price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. In bonds and rates, yields fall when prices rise, and move up when prices fall.

If that was a profit-taking exercise, it makes sense. Funds had substantially increased their net short position in Secured Overnight Financing Rate futures for 10 straight weeks, during which time implied rates across the 2023 curve rose by around 85-100 basis points.

If it was intended to front run the Fed’s eventual pivot to a less aggressive policy stance and possible rate cut or cuts next year, however, it might be premature.

A raft of Federal Reserve officials last week hammered home the message that the tightening will continue, and markets are now pricing in a near 90% probability of a third consecutive 75 bps rate hike later this month.

“We need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing, and we need to keep at it until the job is done,” Powell said on Thursday.

Implied SOFR rates spiked higher. The implied rate on the March 2023 contract, which traders think will mark the fed funds peak, closed the week just shy of 4%, the highest since June.

Funds have not completely changed their view, of course, and they increased their net short position in short-dated Treasuries futures.

The latest CFTC report show they increased their net short position in two-year Treasuries to 326,742 contracts from 281,600 contracts. That is now the biggest bearish bet on two-year bonds since April last year.

Funds have added to that short position for seven consecutive weeks, the longest streak in four years. If funds increase that wager for another week, it will be the longest stretch of increasingly bearish bets since 2013.

This continues to be a money-spinning trade – the two-year yield rose on Friday to a 15-year high of 3.5750% – and shorting bonds has been a winner for macro funds this year.

Hedge fund industry data provider HFR’s Macro Index rose 1.6% in August and is up 9.3% so far this year. HFR’s broader Composite Index is down 4% year-to-date.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Jamie McGeever, a columnist for Reuters.)

Why the US SEC is looking to reform the Treasury market

WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) – The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is scheduled on Wednesday to propose draft rules to boost the resilience of the USD 23 trillion Treasury market, the world’s largest bond market which serves as a benchmark for dollar assets globally.

Here’s why the SEC is looking to make changes:

WHAT’S UP WITH THE TREASURY MARKET?

Over the past decade, the Treasury market has suffered gyrations which have put regulators on edge. In 2014, for example, it experienced wild swings known as a “flash crash,” followed in 2019 by disruptions in the Treasury repurchase agreement market.

Then as COVID-19 pandemic fears gripped investors in early March 2020, Treasury market liquidity deteriorated to 2008 crisis levels, prompting the US Federal Reserve to start buying up Treasury securities.

With the Fed kicking off “quantitative tightening” in June, allowing Treasuries to reach maturity without buying more, the market has experienced more price swings, Reuters reported last month. Regulatory experts have warned the market remains vulnerable to further dysfunction.

WHAT’S THE PROBLEM?

While the issues are complex, there is one chief problem that regulators broadly agree on: the rapid growth of the Treasury market in recent years has outstripped the capacity of dealers, the traditional suppliers of liquidity, to meet liquidity demands during times of market stress.

Since 2010, the value of Treasury securities outstanding has more than doubled. At the same time, however, capital reforms introduced following the 2008 crisis have reduced dealers’ capacity to buy and sell bonds. Dealers’ positions of Treasuries as a share of all Treasury securities outstanding declined from 10% in 2008 to 3.1% in 2019, according to a 2020 research paper led by now-Treasury Department Under Secretary Nellie Liang.

In addition, the market has seen increased participation by high-frequency trading firms which are subject to less oversight than dealers and do not report their Treasury trades, SEC Chair Gary Gensler has noted.

WHAT CHANGES IS THE SEC PLANNING?

The agency has three major work streams underway.

Next week it is scheduled to propose rules that aim to increase central clearing of the Treasury market.

Central clearing involves sending trades to a clearing house, which demands both counterparties put up cash to guarantee the trade’s execution in the event either defaults.

Overall, just 13% of cash transactions are centrally cleared, according to estimates in a 2021 Treasury report.

Gensler has advocated for expanding centralized clearing of Treasuries on the basis it increases resilience by bringing additional capital into the market during times of stress.

The SEC is also working on rules to boost the resilience of platforms where Treasuries are traded and to ensure high frequency trading firms are registered as dealers and subject to capital requirements and other checks, Gensler said in July.

(Reporting by Michelle Price; Editing by Alistair Bell)

Philippine lawmaker seeks to abolish agency recovering Marcos wealth

MANILA, Sept 12 (Reuters) – A Philippines lawmaker has submitted a bill seeking to scrap a commission tasked with recovering billions of dollars in wealth plundered during the rule of the president’s late father, arguing it has “outlived it usefulness”.

The Presidential Commission on Good Government (PCGG) has since 1986 retrieved about USD 5 billion from the family of incumbent President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, but about USD 2.4 billion is still caught up in litigation.

The PCGG was established a few days after the elder Marcos fled a popular uprising against his two decades of decadent rule at the helm of what many historians consider one of Asia’s most famous kleptocracies.

Marcos Sr died in exile in Hawaii in 1989, after which his family returned to the Philippines to launch a comeback that culminated in his son’s landslide election victory in May.

Congressman Bienvenido Abante, who filed the bill, said the commission had run its course.

“If after that long period of time, they failed to establish whether the sequestered assets are ill-gotten or not and who are the owners of these assets, they will not be able to do so even if we would give it another hundred years,” he said.

During election campaigning, the Marcos family insisted its vast fortune was legitimately obtained and the commission was merely an “anti-Marcos agency”.

Part of the billions recovered has been used to compensate thousands of victims of state brutality during the notorious 1970s martial law era of the late Marcos.

An attempt to abolish the commission in 2018 was vetoed by the previous president, but the latest effort is unlikely to face resistance, with Marcos commanding a legislative super-majority.

His cousin is lower house speaker, his son is a congressman and his sister a senator, underlining the power and influence still wielded by the Marcos family, decades after its humiliating retreat.

The president’s press secretary did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the bill.

Opposition Akbayan partylist vowed to block it, calling it “an attempt to abolish the country’s sense of justice and history”.

(Reporting by Karen Lema; Editing by Martin Petty)

BOJ is nowhere near shifting monetary policy to support yen

TOKYO, Sept 12 (Reuters) – The yen may be near 24-year lows, but Japan’s central bank is not even close to trying to support it with higher interest rates.

That is the message from three sources familiar with the thinking of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and it was strongly implied by the country’s top foreign exchange diplomat last week and indeed by central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda in July.

The government – especially the Ministry of Finance (MOF) – has repeatedly and strongly expressed dissatisfaction with this year’s falls in the yen, which on Sept. 7 dropped as far as 144.990 per dollar, down 30% since the end of 2021.

But the central bank is independent and by law obliged to attend to inflation and the state of the economy, not the exchange rate.

Its support for the weak economy with ultra-low interest rates is the main factor behind the yen’s weakness, since other central banks, notably the US Federal Reserve, are briskly tightening monetary policy, making their currencies more attractive as destinations for capital.

The BOJ has no intention of raising interest rates or tweaking its dovish policy guidance to prop up the yen, the sources said.

“The BOJ won’t directly target currency rates in guiding policy,” said one of them. “It looks at yen moves in the context of how they affect the economy and prices.”

“Current economic conditions don’t justify tweaking ultra-loose policy,” that person said, expressing a view echoed by the other two sources.

Official statements are in fact consistent with that.

The BOJ has joined the finance ministry in warning against sharp falls in the currency. But Kuroda said in July, “It’s hard to believe that just by raising rates somewhat, you can stop the yen’s decline.”

That view is still widely shared in the central bank, the sources said.

When the MOF expresses its displeasure with the yen’s falls, it is said to be jawboning – dropping a hint that it may intervene in the market to support the currency. This is intended to make traders cautious in selling the yen.

Last week’s comments by Masato Kanda, a MOF official who serves as Japan’s top currency diplomat, emphasized the divergence between the government and central bank.

Both were “extremely worried” about recent rapid yen moves, Kanda said.

But he declined to comment on BOJ policy and said “the government” – instead of “government and the BOJ” – was ready to use all available tools to battle excessive yen declines.

“Each of us has our own mandate. That’s why I carefully used ‘government’ as the subject at times and ‘government and BOJ’ at other times,” Kanda told reporters.

He was speaking after a meeting between the ministry and central bank.

DOVISH POLICY GUIDANCE

Japan’s economic weakness gives the BOJ little reason to withdraw the monetary stimulus that is undermining the yen. The central bank is set to maintain ultra-low interest rates and dovish policy guidance at its Sept. 21 and 22 meeting.

As for the currency, the most it can do is to maintain, or perhaps strengthen, a warning it inserted in its policy statement in June. It said then that it would “closely watch financial and currency market developments, as well as the impact on Japan’s economy and prices.”

That leaves possible MOF market intervention as the main concern for investors betting against the yen. Yet even that looks improbable, considering that Tokyo would have difficulty getting the necessary consent from other members of the G7 group of large economies.

“The BOJ’s dovish policy stance will come under the spotlight as European and US central banks hike rates,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. “The weak-yen trend will continue.”

But the BOJ’s focus on inflation and the economy does not mean it would never act in response to currency moves, the sources said.

It could feel compelled to respond in the event of a freefall that became so extreme that the economy and price stability were threatened, they said.

That, however, is not the current situation.

(Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Bradley Perrett)

Euro jumps to 3-week high amid hawkish ECB signals, dollar idles

TOKYO, Sept 12 (Reuters) – The euro jumped to a more than three-week peak versus the dollar on Monday, and sterling rose to the highest this month as European Central Bank officials pushed the case for further aggressive monetary tightening.

The greenback idled not far from a two-week low against a basket of peers ahead of key US inflation data this week that might give the Federal Reserve room to slow the pace of rate hikes at its Sept. 21 policy meeting.

The euro EUR leapt as high as USD 1.0130 early in the Asian day before last trading 0.32% stronger than Friday at USD 1.0079.

Sterling GBP rose to USD 1.1681, and was last 0.23% higher at USD 1.1610.

ECB policymakers see a rising risk that they will have to raise their key interest rate to 2% or more to curb record inflation in the euro zone, sources told Reuters.

In an interview with German radio over the weekend, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said that if the picture for consumer prices doesn’t change, “further clear steps must follow.”

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major counterparts, was little changed at 108.78, holding close to those levels after falling back from a two-decade peak of 110.79 reached on Wednesday. It dipped to the lowest since Aug. 30 at 108.35 in the previous session.

Investors are wary ahead of Tuesday’s US CPI report, even as Fed officials continued their hawkish rhetoric on Friday, the final day for such comments before a black-out period leading up to the Federal Open Market Committee’s deliberations.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supports “a significant increase at our next meeting,” while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated his call for a hike of 75 basis points.

“Officials have clearly articulated the need for the FOMC to keep raising interest rates until there is compelling evidence that inflation is falling,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joseph Capurso wrote in a client note.

“Regardless of the outcome of the CPI report, we judge the FOMC has much more work to do,” meaning more upside for the dollar over the short and medium terms, he said.

The dollar, however, strengthened 0.36% to 143.215 against the rate-sensitive yen, heading back toward a 24-year zenith at 144.99 from Wednesday.

That came as the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield

, which the currency pair often tracks closely, hovered around 3.315% in Tokyo trading, not far from last week’s nearly three-month high of 3.365%.

Japanese officials again hinted at intervention over the weekend, with a senior government spokesman saying in a local television interview that the administration must take steps as needed to counter excessive yen declines.

Analysts though doubt intervention would work without the backing of the Fed and other central banks, considering that the Bank of Japan is alone among developed markets in pressing on with stimulus.

“A coordinated effort is needed and right now with major central banks fighting inflation through tighter policy, global official support for JPY seems unlikely,” Rodrigo Catril, a strategist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a note.

“If the BOJ really wants to stop JPY’s decline, then they need to make changes to their ultra-easy policy,” he added. “The pressure is building.”

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar AUD slipped 0.23% to USD 0.6831, while New Zealand’s kiwi NZD edged 0.07% lower to USD 0.6099.

Bitcoin eased 0.4% to USD 21,750, after briefly pushing up to USD 22,350 for the first time since Aug. 19, as the cryptocurrency attempts to find its footing following its bounce from a nearly three-month low at USD 18,540 last week.

Philippines accepts higher yield for 182-day T-bills

MANILA, Sept 12 (Reuters) – Following are the results of the Philippine Bureau of the Treasury’s (BTr) auction of T-bills on Monday:

* BTr fully awards 5 billion pesos (USD 87.67 million) offer for 182-day T-bills at 3.634% avg yield vs previous avg 3.485%

* BTr rejects all bids for 91-day, 364-day T-bills

(USD 1 = PHP 57.03)

(Reporting by Enrico Dela Cruz; Editing by Martin Petty)

Gold subdued with spotlight on US inflation data

Sept 12 (Reuters) – Gold prices were flat on Monday, with investor focus being on a key US inflation reading as it could influence the size of the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate hike.

Spot gold held its ground at USD 1,714.41 per ounce, as of 0524 GMT.

US gold futures were down 0.2% at USD 1,725.00.

“There remains some lingering general de-leveraging downward pressure on gold, but this week’s inflation number may provide some relief,” said Clifford Bennett, chief economist at ACY Securities.

“A further indication that inflation may have peaked would be encouraging for the gold market. The Fed will continue to hike regardless, but that there may be some end in sight could be enough to tilt gold back up following recent sharp declines.”

The US Consumer Price Index data, due on Tuesday, is expected to show that August prices rose at an 8.1% pace over the year, compared with an 8.5% print for July.

Fed officials on Friday ended their public comment period ahead of the central bank’s Sept. 20-21 policy meeting, with strong calls for another oversized rate increase to battle sky-high inflation.

The markets are largely expecting the Fed to raise rates by 75 basis points this month. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding bullion and boosts the dollar, in which gold is priced.

The dollar index hovered close to its lowest level since Aug. 30 marked on Friday.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank policymakers see a heightened risk that they will have to hike their key interest rate to 2%, sources told Reuters.

Spot gold is biased to break a resistance at USD 1,720 and rise towards USD 1,729, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Spot silver rose 0.7% to USD 18.91 per ounce, after touching its highest in more than two weeks earlier in the session.

Platinum dropped 0.6% to USD 875.49 and palladium fell 0.5% to USD 2,161.17.

(Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Uttaresh.V and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

Oil prices drop amid China COVID curbs, possible rate hikes

SINGAPORE, Sept 12 (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Monday with the global fuel demand outlook overshadowed by COVID-19 restrictions in China and the potential for further interest rate hikes in the United States and Europe.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 dropped USD 1.01, or 1.1%, to USD 91.83 a barrel by 0630 GMT, after settling 4.1% higher on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was down USD 1.13 at USD 85.66 a barrel, or 1.3%, after a 3.9% gain in the previous session.

Prices were little changed last week as gains from a nominal supply cut by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, were offset by ongoing lockdowns in China, the world’s top crude importer.

China’s oil demand could contract for the first time in two decades this year as Beijing’s zero-COVID policy keeps people at home during holidays and reduces fuel consumption.

“The lingering presence of headwinds from China’s renewed virus restrictions and further moderation in global economic activities could still draw some reservations over a more sustained upside,” said Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG.

“The overall negatives seem to outweigh the positives,” said Yeap, adding the USD 85 mark for Brent crude prices could be in sight.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are prepared to increase interest rates further to tackle inflation, which could lift the value of US dollar against currencies and make dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors.

“Demand concerns centred on the impact of rising interest rates to combat inflation and China’s COVID-zero policy,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar wrote in a note.

Still, global oil prices may rebound towards the end of the year – supply is expected to tighten further when a European Union embargo on Russian oil take effect on Dec. 5.

The G7 will implement a price cap on Russian oil to limit Russia’s lucrative oil export revenue following its invasion of Ukraine in February, and plans to take measures to ensure that the oil could still flow to emerging nations. Moscow calls its actions in Ukraine “a special operation”.

(Reporting by Florence Tan and Jeslyn Lerh; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)

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