Morgan Stanley stays bullish on US stocks

Morgan Stanley backed its bullish stance on US equities on Monday, citing strong earnings momentum, and said it was expecting a modest pullback in the third quarter that could create an opportunity to buy the dip.

The Wall Street brokerage is leaning more towards its bull case of the benchmark S&P 500 hitting 7,200 points by the middle of the year, it wrote in a note. In May, the brokerage said the S&P 500 was expected to hit 6,500 in the second quarter of 2026.

“With earnings on solid footing into next year and the Fed closer to cutting rates, valuations can remain supported around current levels (~22x) as we think about the 12-month outlook,” Morgan Stanley equity strategists led by Michael Wilson said.

However, the brokerage said rising Treasury yields – especially the 10-year note US10YT=RR breaching above 4.5% – could increase rate sensitivity for equities and an underperformance of rate-sensitive stocks such as small caps.

Morgan Stanley also expects tariff-related cost pressures to show up later this year, which could impact company margins and bump up inflation, leading to a change in rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve.

Lastly, it estimates that seasonal trends may hit stocks in from mid-July through August.

However, the brokerage said it would buy the dips as the risks could be temporary and only lead to a mild consolidation.

Jefferies also raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 5,600 from its previous forecast of 5,300, according to the brokerage’s note published on Friday.

(Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva)

Yen firms as investors gird for political uncertainty

The yen firmed on Monday after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house as investors braced for a period of policy paralysis and market tumult in the world’s fourth-largest economy ahead of a deadline on tariff negotiations with the US.

The Japanese markets are closed for the day leaving the yen as an indicator of investor angst. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party returned 47 seats, short of the 50 seats it needed to ensure a majority in the 248-seat upper chamber in an election where half the seats were up for grabs.

The yen firmed to 148.32 per dollar in early trading, staying close to the 3-1/2-month low it hit last week as the election result was mostly priced in by investors. It firmed a bit against the euro to 172.64.

While the ballot does not directly determine whether Ishiba’s administration will fall, it heaps political pressure on the embattled leader who also lost control of the more powerful lower house in October.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said the LDP coalition could still partner with the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) to get the 50 seats required, and “that is helpful for the yen.”

“However, most importantly, PM Ishiba has been defiant in his stance to stay the course as PM, but his hand has been sufficiently weakened.”

The election result, while not entirely a shock to markets, also comes at a tricky time for a country trying to get a tariff deal with US President Donald Trump before an Aug. 1 deadline.

Japanese government bonds (JGBs) plunged last week, sending yields on 30-year debt to an all-time high, while the yen slid to multi-month lows against the US dollar and the euro.

If Ishiba resigns, the political maelstrom could be a trigger for foreign investors to sell Japanese shares and the yen, analysts said.

Elsewhere, investor focus has been firmly on Trump’s global tariff salvos, with a Financial Times report last week indicating the US president was pushing for steep new tariffs on European Union products.

The euro was steady at USD 1.163225 in early trading, while sterling last fetched USD 1.13417. The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six others, was at 98.352.

The New Zealand dollar eased 0.18% to USD 0.5951 after annual consumer inflation accelerated in the second quarter but stayed below economists’ forecasts, leading markets to raise the chance of a rate cut next month given the broader economic weakness.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 1% to USD 116,939, holding below a record USD 123,153 reached last week.

(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore
Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

US House passes stablecoin legislation, sending bill to Trump

The US House of Representatives on Thursday passed a bill to create a regulatory framework for US-dollar-pegged cryptocurrency tokens known as stablecoins, sending the bill to President Donald Trump, who is expected to sign it into law.

The vote marks a watershed moment for the digital asset industry, which has been pushing for federal legislation for years and poured money into last year’s elections to promote pro-crypto candidates.

House lawmakers also passed two other crypto bills, sending them next to the Senate for consideration. One lays out a regulatory framework for crypto, and the other would ban the US from issuing a central bank digital currency.

The stablecoin bill, known as the Genius Act, and the crypto market structure bill, known as the Clarity Act, both received notable bipartisan support. Democratic lawmakers joined with Republicans to pass the stablecoin bill 308-122.

Stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value, usually a 1:1 dollar peg, are commonly used by crypto traders to move funds between tokens. Their use has grown rapidly in recent years, and proponents say that they could be used to send payments instantly.

If signed into law, the stablecoin bill would require tokens to be backed by liquid assets – such as US dollars and short-term Treasury bills – and for issuers to publicly disclose the composition of their reserves on a monthly basis.

Blockchain Association CEO and former Commodity Futures Trading Commission official Summer Mersinger described Thursday’s votes as a “defining moment in the evolution of US digital asset policy.”

The crypto sector has long pushed for lawmakers to pass legislation creating rules for digital assets, arguing that a clear framework could enable stablecoins and other crypto tokens to become more widely used. The sector spent more than USD 119 million backing pro-crypto congressional candidates in last year’s elections and has worked to paint the issue as bipartisan.

The House of Representatives passed a stablecoin bill last year, but the Senate – in which Democrats held the majority at the time – did not take up that bill.

Trump has sought to broadly overhaul US cryptocurrency policies after courting cash from the industry during his presidential campaign.

Tensions on Capitol Hill over Trump’s various crypto ventures at one point threatened to derail the digital asset sector’s hope of legislation this year, as Democrats have grown increasingly frustrated with Trump and his family members promoting their personal crypto projects.

Trump’s crypto ventures include a meme coin called $TRUMP, launched in January, and a business called World Liberty Financial, a crypto company owned partly by the president.

The White House has said there are no conflicts of interest present for Trump and that his assets are in a trust managed by his children.

Clarity Act sent to Senate

The Clarity Act, which passed 294-134, would critically define when a cryptocurrency is a security or a commodity and clarify the Securities and Exchange Commission’s jurisdiction over the sector, something crypto companies aggressively disputed during the Biden administration.

Crypto companies have argued that most tokens should be classified as commodities instead of securities, which would enable platforms to more easily offer those tokens to their customers by not having to comply with a raft of securities laws.

That bill would need to pass through the Senate before heading to Trump’s desk for final approval.

Some Democrats fiercely opposed the Clarity Act, arguing it could be a giveaway to Trump’s crypto ventures by enabling softer-touch regulation.

The House also passed a bill prohibiting a central bank digital currency, which Republicans say could violate Americans’ privacy. The issue had been a sticking point in House discussions this week.

(Reporting by Chris Prentice, David Morgan and Douglas Gillison; Editing by Pete Schroeder, Matthew Lewis, Mark Porter and Rod Nickel)

Dollar gains broadly; yen dips before election Japan election

The dollar rebounded broadly on Thursday following a turbulent session on Wednesday when US President Donald Trump denied reports that he was planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The dollar has rallied this month in what analysts say is largely consolidation following a sharp selloff for most of this year. The dollar index remains down 9% year-to-date. Rising Treasury yields this month are supporting the dollar’s rebound.

“After having a historic sell-off in the first half, the dollar has begun the second half on firmer footing. It looks like mostly short covering backed by these firmer US interest rates,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

The dollar extended gains on Thursday after data showed US retail sales rebounded more than expected in June, while the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell last week.

However, the greenback quickly fell back to trade close to where it was before the data, which Chandler said shows “the lack of near-term conviction.”

Investors are weighing multiple factors that could influence market direction, including the economic impact of Trump’s tariff policies, the US fiscal and debt outlook, and the Fed’s independence.

The dollar tumbled on Wednesday on reports that Trump was planning to fire Powell soon, before paring losses when Trump denied the news. Trump has said repeatedly that interest rates should be at 1% or lower.

Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, seen as a potential successor to Powell, said on Thursday there needs to be a new accord between the Treasury Department and the US central bank, referencing a 1951 pact that separated federal debt management from monetary policy.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last up 0.41% on the day at 98.75, with the euro down 0.45% at USD 1.1582. The single currency earlier reached USD 1.1555, the lowest level since June 23.

In other currencies, sterling weakened after data showed British pay growth slowing in May and employee numbers dropping further last month.

The British pound was last down 0.1% at USD 1.3405.

Concerns also mounted over a pivotal election in Japan and a still elusive trade deal with the US to avoid a punishing rise in tariffs.

Polls showed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition was in danger of losing its majority in the upper house.

Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, held talks with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on tariffs on Thursday, as Tokyo races to avert a 25% levy that will be imposed unless a deal is clinched by an August 1 deadline.

The yen weakened 0.58% against the greenback to 148.73 per dollar after touching its weakest level since April 3 in the previous session .

The Australian dollar slid after jobs data badly missed forecasts and unemployment hit highs not seen since late 2021.

The Aussie was last down 0.64% versus the greenback at USD 0.6484.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.22% to USD 119,676.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Rocky Swift, Lucy Raitano, William Maclean; Editing by Leslie Adler)

Oil jumps USD 1 after further drone attacks on Iraq oil fields

Oil prices rose USD 1 on Thursday after drones struck Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields for a fourth day, pointing to continued risk in the volatile region.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 69.52 a barrel, up USD 1.00, or 1.46%. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at USD 67.54 a barrel, up USD 1.16, or 1.75%.

Officials pointed to Iran-backed militias as the likely source of attacks this week on the oilfields in Iraqi Kurdistan, although no group has claimed responsibility.

Oil output in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region has been slashed by between 140,000 and 150,000 barrels per day, two energy officials said, more than half the region’s normal output of about 280,000 bpd.

“Some of the gains are reaction to drone attacks in Iraq,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. “It shows how vulnerable oil supplies are to attacks using low technology.”

Markets have also been jittery while waiting for the imposition of tariffs by US President Donald Trump, which could shift oil supplies from the United States to India and China, Lipow said.

Trump has said letters notifying smaller countries of their US tariff rates would go out soon, and has also alluded to prospects of a deal with Beijing on illicit drugs and a possible agreement with the European Union.

“Near-term prices (are) set to remain volatile due to the uncertainty over the final scale of US tariffs and the resultant impact on global growth,” said Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum.

US crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week, government data on Wednesday showed, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 552,000-barrel draw.

Last week, the International Energy Agency said that oil output increases were not leading to higher inventories, which showed markets were thirsty for more oil.

Markets were continuing to look for signals of tighter supply or higher demand, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group.

Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico was not expected to develop into a named storm as it makes its way west before moving onshore in Louisiana later on Thursday.

Rainfall totals in Southeast Louisiana are forecast to be about four inches (10 cm), according to the US National Hurricane Center.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Seher Dareen in London, Anjana Anil in Bengaluru and Emily Chow in Singapore. Editing by Marguerita Choy, Kirsten Donovan and Nia Williams)

Dollar on shaky ground as markets fret about Fed independence

TOKYO – The dollar was on a fragile footing on Thursday, having lost ground overnight as concerns that US President Donald Trump was preparing to fire the Federal Reserve chair shook confidence in US markets.

Trump denied reports he was planning to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but he kept the door open to the possibility and renewed his criticism of the central bank chief for not lowering interest rates.

Investors worry that removing Powell before his term ends in May 2026 would undermine credibility in the US financial system and the dollar as a safe-haven currency.

And a more dovish Fed could lead to a return of inflation and negative real yields on Treasuries, said Mahjabeen Zaman, head of foreign exchange research at ANZ.

“If that comes to fruition, you’re going to see a much weaker dollar than we’re already expecting,” Zaman said in an ANZ podcast. “Such an event, if that even does happen, it will raise questions for Fed independence and credibility, so I think it’s only going to be an increase in volatility.”

Trump has railed against Powell for months for not easing rates, which he says should be at 1% or lower.

Bloomberg reported that the president is likely to fire Powell soon, and a source told Reuters that Trump polled some Republican lawmakers on firing Powell and received a positive response. Trump said that the reports were not true.

“I don’t rule out anything, but I think it’s highly unlikely unless he has to leave for fraud,” Trump said, a reference to recent White House and Republican lawmaker criticism of cost overruns in the USD 2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s historic headquarters in Washington.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against major peers, was little changed at 98.384 after a 0.3% slide on Wednesday. The US currency ticked up 0.2% to 148.14 yen, after a 0.6% decline overnight.

The euro stood at USD 1.1632, down 0.01%. Sterling edged 0.1% lower to USD 1.3409.

Investors remain focused on tariffs ahead of an August 1 deadline when many trading partners face higher trade levies.

Trump said on Wednesday the US will probably “live by the letter” on tariffs with Japan and may have another trade deal coming up with India, following his announcement of an accord with Indonesia on Tuesday.

In Japan, investors are focused on a potential power shift in upper house elections this weekend that could strain already frail finances, with long-dated yields soaring to all-time highs as the vote nears.

(Reporting by Rocky Swift; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Oil rises as demand hopes and economic data lift sentiment

Oil prices rose in early trade on Thursday, reversing the previous session’s losses, buoyed by stronger-than-expected economic data from the world’s top oil consumers and signs of easing trade tensions.

Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.39%, to USD 68.79 a barrel at 0000 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 31 cents, or 0.47%, at USD 66.69. Both benchmarks fell more than 0.2% in the previous session.

US crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels to 422.2 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, a steeper decline than forecasts for a 552,000-barrel draw, suggesting stronger refinery activity, tighter supply, and increased demand.

There is “some support from the favorable margin environment associated with the refining sector. Product spreads remain relatively wide in all the regions,” said John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors.

However, larger-than-expected builds in gasoline and diesel inventories capped price gains.

The US central bank’s latest snapshot of the economy, released on Wednesday, showed activity picked up in recent weeks. However, the outlook was “neutral to slightly pessimistic” as businesses reported that higher import tariffs were putting upward pressure on prices.

China data showed growth slowed in the second quarter, but not by as much as previously feared, in part because of front-loading to beat US tariffs, easing fears over the state of the world’s largest crude importer’s economy.

The data also showed that China’s June crude oil throughput was up 8.5% from a year ago, implying stronger fuel demand.

Additionally, “support has come from the positive news pertaining to some easing of trade tensions between China and the US with President Trump lifting the ban on the sale of AI chips to China along with the announcement of a trade deal with Indonesia,” John Paisie added.

US President Donald Trump offered fresh optimism about the prospects of a deal with Beijing on illicit drugs. He also hinted that a trade deal with India is very close, while an agreement could possibly be reached with Europe as well.

Trade tariffs could slow down global economic growth, and in turn dampen fuel demand, putting downward pressure on prices.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonali Paul)

US yields slide amid turmoil involving Fed’s Powell

NEW YORK – US two-year Treasury yields tumbled in volatile trading on Wednesday but came off their lowest levels after President Donald Trump said he was not planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, refuting media reports that he planned to do so soon.

Investors, on the other hand, sold off the long end of the Treasury curve, pushing 30-year yields to an eight-week high of 5.08%. US 30-year yields were last flat on the day at 5.014%.

U.S two-year yields, which track interest rate expectations, fell to a roughly one-week low of 3.86% after CBS and Bloomberg reported that Trump had indicated to a group of House Republicans that he would fire Powell.

The yield was last 6.9 basis points lower at 3.889%.

The reports pushed rate cut bets starting in September to 66%, from 54% just before. After Trump said that the reports were not true, that probability stood at 60%.

All told, the Fed funds futures market, which is tied to monetary policy, has priced in about 47 bps in easing for 2025.

“I don’t rule out anything, but I think it’s highly unlikely unless (Powell) has to leave for fraud,” Trump said, a reference to recent White House and Republican lawmaker criticism of cost overruns in the USD 2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s historic headquarters in Washington.

The benchmark 10-year yield also rose on the initial report, but was last down 3.6 bps at 4.453%.

The yield curve steepened following the report on Powell, with the spread between two- and 10-year yields widening to as much as 61.8 bps. That’s the steepest level since April. That reflects the sell-off at the long end amid fiscal worries and concerns about inflation going out of control if the Fed, under a new chai,r cuts rates aggressively.

The curve was last 56.4 bps, still steeper than Tuesday’s 53.9 bps.

“This story keeps churning, so understandably, markets are nervous that it could happen sooner rather than later re Trump firing Powell,” said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research and rates, at Societe Generale in London.

“Bond and FX markets do not like the uncertainty. We’ve had stronger US CPI goods ex-autos just yesterday, so to think that lower rates are the way forward as tariffs seep through consumer prices is not going to reassure.”

The Powell back-and-forth overshadowed Wednesday’s data showing tame producer prices last month, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to resume cutting interest rates later this year. US yields fell after the report.

US producer prices index came in unchanged for June, compared with expectations for a 0.2% rise, while core or underlying prices were flat. An increase in the cost of goods because of tariffs on imports was offset by weakness in services.

In the 12 months through June, the PPI increased 2.3% after advancing 2.7% in May. Data on Tuesday, meanwhile, showed consumer prices picking up in June, with solid gains in tariff-exposed goods like household furnishings and supplies, appliances, sporting goods and toys, as well as windows, floor coverings and linens.

Wednesday’s data showing a modest rise in factory production had little impact on the Treasuries market. Manufacturing output ticked up 0.1% last month after an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in May, the Fed said.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production unchanged after a 0.1% gain in May.

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe in London; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Diane Craft)

Gold pares gains after Trump shoots down talk of ousting Powell

Gold prices jumped on Wednesday following news reports that US President Donald Trump planned to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, but trimmed gains after Trump denied the claim.

Trump said he was not planning to fire Powell, but declined to rule anything out, citing an investigation into cost overruns on a USD 2.5-billion Fed renovation project.

Spot gold rose 1% to USD 3,354.01 per ounce, as of 0153 p.m. EDT (1753 GMT) after rising as much as 1.6% earlier.

US gold futures settled 0.7% higher at USD 3,359.1.

“Headlines suggesting Trump was considering firing Powell drove gold prices higher… he later clarified it’s highly unlikely. Gold markets were whipsawed by the back and forth,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Israel launched powerful airstrikes in Damascus, damaging the Defence Ministry and striking near the presidential palace. The attack added to geopolitical worries and supported purchases of safe-haven gold.

On the trade front, the European Commission prepared to target USD 84.1 billion worth of US goods for possible tariffs if trade talks with Washington fail after Trump threatened last week to impose 30% tariffs on imports from the EU.

“With Israeli strikes and the US being more hawkish on trade tariffs, there is a little bit more uncertainty to the marketplace,” which is helping gold, said Jim Wyckoff, a senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

“I expect gold to trade between USD 3,250 and USD 3,476 in the near term.”

Adding support to gold was data that showed US producer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in June from a 0.3% rise in May.

It followed Tuesday’s data that showed overall consumer prices rose 0.3% in June, up from 0.1% in May, signalling the Federal Reserve may continue to exercise caution before cutting interest rates.

Gold thrives during uncertain times, and a low-interest rate environment boosts it further.

Spot silver added 0.5% to USD 37.89 per ounce.

Platinum gained nearly 3% to USD 1,412.55, and palladium rose 1.8% to USD 1,227.73.

(Reporting by Sarah Qureshi and Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Rod Nickel and Shailesh Kuber)

Oil slips as Trump’s 50-day deadline for Russia eases supply fears

NEW YORK – Oil prices dropped by less than 1% on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump’s 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine and avoid sanctions eased concerns about any immediate supply disruption.

Brent crude futures settled down 50 cents, or 0.7%, at USD 68.71 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 46 cents, or 0.7%, at USD 66.52.

“The focus has been on Donald Trump. There was some fear he might target Russia with sanctions immediately and now he has given another 50 days,” said UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “Those fears about an imminent additional tightness in the market have dissipated. That’s the main story.”

Oil prices had climbed on the potential sanctions, but later gave up gains as the 50-day deadline raised hopes that sanctions could be avoided.

In the event the proposed sanctions are implemented, “it would drastically change the outlook for the oil market,” analysts at ING said in a note.

“China, India and Turkey are the largest buyers of Russian crude oil. They would need to weigh the benefits of buying discounted Russian crude oil against the cost of their exports to the US,” ING said.

Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine on Monday and had said on Saturday that he would impose a 30% tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico from August 1, adding to similar warnings for other countries.

Tariffs raise the risk of slower economic growth, which could reduce global fuel demand and drag oil prices lower.

Also on the tariff front, Brazil will work to get the US to reverse “as quickly as possible” the 50% tariff it announced on all goods from that country, but does not rule out asking for more time to negotiate, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said.

China’s economy slowed in the second quarter, data showed on Tuesday, with markets bracing for a weaker second half as exports lose momentum, prices continue to fall and consumer confidence remains low.

Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, said economic growth in China came in above consensus, largely because of strong fiscal support and the frontloading of production and exports to beat US tariffs.

“The Chinese economic data was supportive overnight,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group.

Elsewhere, oil demand is set to remain “very strong” through the third quarter, keeping the market balanced in the near term, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ secretary general said, according to a Russian media report.

In US supply, US crude stocks rose by 839,000 barrels last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

US government data on stockpiles is due on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly in New York; Additional reporting by Anna Hirtenstein in London, Anjana Anil in Bengaluru, and Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Matthew Lewis, and David Gregorio)

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