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Archives: Reuters Articles

Inflation data, midterm elections loom for struggling US stock rally

Inflation data, midterm elections loom for struggling US stock rally

NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) – A sputtering US stock rally faces a double-dose of potentially market moving events next week: US midterm elections and inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Wall Street’s rebound on Friday dissipated some of the gloom that pervaded since the Fed on Wednesday hiked interest rates, while Chairman Jerome Powell said policymakers will likely take rates higher than envisioned in their bid to crush inflation.

Nevertheless, the S&P 500 finished the week with a 4.6% loss, likely burning many bulls that had jumped aboard an October rally that lifted the index more than 8% from its lows. A break of the index’s Oct. 12 closing low would mark the fifth time this year that stocks have rallied by 6% or more only to reverse course and plumb fresh depths.

Meanwhile, data from BoFA Global Research showed some USD 62.1 billion flowing into cash in the latest week, the largest inflows since the COVID-19 crash of early 2020, underlining pessimism that has prevailed among many market participants.

“We think we are on the path for a rocky landing for the economy, and next week we will get two pretty big clues as to what it’s going to look like,” said Steve Chiavraone, head of multi-asset solutions at Federated Hermes, who is holding larger-than-normal allocations in cash and commodities.

Consumer price data has driven huge market moves this year, as surging inflation forced investors to ramp up expectations for Fed rate hikes. A stronger-than-expected reading on Nov. 10 would likely bolster the case for the Fed to continue.

Investors are now pricing in a peak of around 5.1% for the fed funds rate next year, compared to expectations of just under 5% before the most recent Fed meeting. The central bank has raised rates to 3.75% this year.

“If we get lower inflation reading then you could get a relief rally based on that data,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. In that case, however, “markets will be more focused on higher probability of a recession.”

Strategists at Wells Fargo believe CPI is more likely to fall short of expectations. They see the Fed’s terminal rate falling by 12 basis points or more if CPI comes in at a monthly gain below 0.4%. Analysts polled by Reuters expect a 0.5% monthly rise.

“All told, disinflationary forces are gathering strength,” Sarah House, senior economist at the firm, wrote Friday.

At the same time, analysts said a surprise win by Democrats in the Nov. 8 midterm election, which will determine control of Congress, could fuel concerns about more fiscal spending and inflation.

Republicans have been leading in polls and betting markets and many analysts believe the likely result will be a split government, with GOP control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate for the second half of Democratic President Joe Biden’s term.

“If the Dems were to retain full control of Congress, you’re more likely to see fiscal expenditures rise and that would be highly problematic in this inflationary environment,” said Spenser Lerner, a portfolio manager at Harbor Capital.

Options hedges on the S&P 500 imply a move of nearly 3% in either direction on the day after the election, analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote this week, nearly twice the size of the average daily move the index has recorded this year.

Some investors are more hopeful regarding the period of stronger markets that past midterm elections have ushered in rather than on moves stemming from the vote itself: the S&P 500 has posted a positive return in the 12 months following all 19 midterm elections since World War Two, according to CFRA Research.

Similar gains could be in store this time around – as long as inflation numbers are not hotter than investors expect, said Kei Sasaki, senior portfolio advisor at Northern Trust, who believes energy and financial stocks will perform well in a divided government.

“The results of the midterm will give greater visibility and help draw investor confidence higher,” he said.

(Reporting by David Randall; Additional reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and David Gregorio)

 

Gold soars as US jobs data raises Fed slowdown hopes

Gold soars as US jobs data raises Fed slowdown hopes

Nov 4 (Reuters) – Gold prices surged 3% on Friday as the dollar fell after data showing an uptick in the US unemployment rate in October raised optimism the Federal Reserve would be less aggressive on rate hikes going forward.

US employers hired more workers than expected in October, but a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7% suggested some loosening in labor market conditions.

“The US jobs report has hit the sweet spot of what the marketplace was wanting to see and that has allowed gold prices to rally,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

Spot gold rose nearly 3% to USD 1,677.67 per ounce by 2:34 p.m. ET (1834 GMT). Bullion is up nearly 2.2% for the week, the biggest weekly percentage gain since end-July.

US gold futures settled up 2.8% to USD 1,676.6.

Following the jobs data, the dollar index fell 1.6%, making greenback-priced gold more appealing for overseas buyers.

The US central bank on Wednesday raised interest rates by 75 basis points, but signaled they would soon scale down its aggressive rate-hike cycle as it allows time for the economy to absorb the swiftest tightening of monetary policy in 40 years.

Fed policymakers on Friday indicated they would still consider a smaller interest rate hike at their next policy meeting.

Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but high interest rates dent the non-yielding asset’s appeal.

“The long variable lags of Fed tightening has traders convinced they opt for a slower pace of hikes and decide later on when to stop,” said Edward Moya, senior analyst with OANDA.

“If next week’s US inflation report contains a downward surprise, gold might be able to make a run towards the USD 1,700 level.”

Silver soared 6.9% to USD 20.80 per ounce and was headed for a weekly gain of 8.3%.

Platinum rose 4.3% to USD 957.97, while palladium was up 3.8% at USD 1,869.62.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen in Bengaluru; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Chris Reese)

 

US equity funds lure inflows for third straight week

US equity funds lure inflows for third straight week

Nov 4 (Reuters) – US equity funds continued to gain inflows for a third straight week in the week to Nov. 2, helped by expectations that the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of its interest rate hikes soon.

According to Refinitiv Lipper data, investors bought a net USD 10.19 billion worth of US equity funds, compared with purchases of USD 7.93 billion in the previous week.

Solid earnings beat from Apple Inc. (AAPL) and energy giants Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM) also boosted investor confidence during the reported week.

Investors purchased US large- and small-cap equity funds worth USD 6.62 billion and USD 1.59 billion respectively, although mid-cap funds witnessed outflows of USD 473 million.

By sector, health care, tech and consumer staples funds obtained inflows worth USD 630 million, USD 478 million, and USD 393 million respectively.

However, the US Federal Reserve hiked the interest rates by 75 basis points and said the peak for rates would likely be higher than previously expected.

Meanwhile, outflows from bond funds stood at just USD 14 million, a seven-week low.

Investors purchased US high yield bond funds of USD 5.07 billion, which was their biggest weekly net buying since August 2020, but government bond funds witnessed USD 1.75 billion worth of withdrawals after luring inflows for nine straight weeks.

Money market funds drew USD 46.64 billion in inflow after posting two weeks of outflows in a row.

(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

 

Oil settles up 5% as further interest rate hikes loom

Oil settles up 5% as further interest rate hikes loom

Nov 4 (Reuters) – Oil prices settled up by more than 5% on Friday amid uncertainty around future interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, while a looming EU ban on Russian oil and the possibility of China easing some COVID restrictions supported markets.

Though fears of global recession capped gains, Brent crude futures settled up USD 3.99 to USD 98.57 per barrel, a weekly gain of 2.9%.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up USD 2.96, or 5%, at USD 92.61, a 4.7% weekly gain.

China is sticking to its strict COVID-19 curbs after cases rose on Thursday to their highest since August, but a former Chinese disease control official said substantial changes to the country’s COVID-19 policy are to take place soon.

China’s stock markets have been buoyed this week by the rumors of an end to stringent lockdowns despite the lack of any announced changes.

However, signals about the size of US interest rate hikes caused oil to pare some gains.

The US Labor Department’s non-farm payrolls report on Friday showed a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7% last month from 3.5% in September, suggesting some loosening in labor market conditions that could give the Fed cover to shift towards smaller rate increases.

Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin on Friday said he is ready to act more “deliberatively” on consideration of the pace of future US interest rate hikes, but said rates could continue rising for longer and to a higher end point than previously expected.

“The China re-opening talk this morning got oil going, but the various Fed representatives have been making it clear there’s a long way to go with respect to interest rate hikes, and oil markets are more sensitive to that,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC.

While demand concerns weighed on the market, supply is expected to remain tight because of Europe’s planned embargoes on Russian oil and a slide in US crude stockpiles.

“The slight weakness in the dollar, the upcoming ban on Russian oil sales are certainly supportive as focus is shifting from recession fears to supply issues,” said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga.

“The main catalyst, however, is reports that China may ease its zero-Covid restrictions, which would be a boon to its economy and oil demand.”

The EU ban on Russian crude imports is due to take effect from Dec. 5. Details of G7 price cap aimed at alleviating constraints on Russian flows outside the EU are still under discussion.

RECESSION FEARS

On the bearish side, fears of a recession in the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer, grew on Thursday after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said it was “very premature” to be thinking about pausing interest rate hikes.

“The spectre of further rate hikes dimmed hopes of a pick-up in demand,” ANZ Research analysts said in a note.

The Bank of England warned on Thursday that it thinks Britain has entered a recession and the economy might not grow for another two years.

Underscoring demand concerns, Saudi Arabia lowered December official selling prices (OSPs) for its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia by 40 cents to a premium of USD 5.45 a barrel versus the Oman/Dubai average.

The cut was in line with trade sources’ forecasts, which were based on a weaker outlook for Chinese demand.

Looking into next week, investors are awaiting the US Energy Information Administration’s short-term energy outlook and the November US Consumer Price Index for insight on the pace of inflation.

(Additional reporting by Julia Payne in London and Sonali Paul in Melbourne and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by Chris Reese and Nick Zieminski)

European shares rally on hopes of smaller Fed hikes, China reopening

European shares rally on hopes of smaller Fed hikes, China reopening

Nov 4 (Reuters) – European stocks rallied on Friday after US jobs data backed bets the Federal Reserve would deliver smaller rate hikes, with hopes of easing COVID-19 curbs in China boosting mining and luxury stocks.

The STOXX 600 closed 1.8% higher, with basic resources, personal & household goods and automakers leading a broad rally.

Thanks to a largely better-than-expected earnings season and hopes that central banks will slow their pace of monetary policy tightening, the benchmark index marked its fourth straight weekly gain with a 1.5% rise.

Wall Street’s main indexes held steady as a slowing pace of US job growth and rising unemployment rate suggested some loosening in labour market conditions, supporting hopes of a shift towards smaller rate hikes starting December.

“We definitely believe that the Fed will continue with its hiking cycle, although not with the jumbo hikes that we have seen during the last meetings,” said Teeuwe Mevissen, senior market economist at Rabobank.

Furthermore, China is expected to make substantial changes to its “dynamic-zero” COVID-19 policy in coming months and further shorten quarantine requirements for inbound travelers.

Luxury giants including LVMH (LVMH), Kering (PRTP), Pernod Ricard (PERP) and Hermes International (HRMS), which have a large exposure to China, climbed between 3.7% and 7.1%.

Miners rose 5.3% to post their best day in almost four months as metal prices jumped on speculation over easing COVID-19 curbs in top metal consumer China.

The Euro STOXX volatility index dropped to an 11-week low, reflecting easing anxiety among investors.

Meanwhile, data so far indicates that the euro zone is heading towards a winter recession. A survey showed euro zone business activity contracted last month at the fastest pace since late 2020 as high inflation and fears of an intensifying energy crisis hit demand.

Among other stocks, Adidas (ADSGn) shot up 21.4% to the top of the STOXX 600 after Germany’s manager magazin reported that outgoing Puma (PUMG) chief executive Bjorn Gulden is set to become the new Adidas head.

Manufacturer Andritz (ANDR) surged 10.7% as its quarterly sales and profit rose significantly.

Societe Generale (SOGN) jumped 2.6% after posting a higher-than-expected net income, while shares in Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS) plunged 12.0% after the bank completed a 2.5-billion-euro (USD 2.4 billion) capital raise.

(Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Vinay Dwivedi and Elaine Hardcastle)

 

World equities fall, US Treasury yields rise after hawkish Fed

World equities fall, US Treasury yields rise after hawkish Fed

NEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) – Global equities fell while US Treasury yields rose on Thursday as investors weighed hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the prospects of further interest rate hikes targeted at reining in inflation.

Market sentiment has been bearish after the Fed on Wednesday raised rates by 75 basis points and Powell said during a press conference that the “ultimate level” of interest rates is likely higher than previously estimated, and the central bank still has “some ways to go.”

Traders, who were expecting the Fed to strike a more dovish stance after delivering its fourth consecutive rate hike, were rattled.

“We’ve done 400 basis points in eight months – one of the steepest ascents in tightening in history – and to not sit back and see for a few months how the data comes in is just reckless,” said Thomas Hayes, chairman at Great Hill Capital in New York.

The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 50 countries, shaved almost 2%. European stocks dropped nearly 1% after the Bank of England delivered its biggest rate rise since 1989.

On Wall Street, all three major indexes closed lower, led by a selloff in technology, communication services, financials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.46% to 32,001.25, the S&P 500 lost 1.06% to 3,719.89 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.73% to 10,342.94.

“I think the kind of double talk that we saw yesterday is really beginning to massively erode the credibility of anything they say. What’s going to happen is that at some point, they’re going to talk hawkish and the market is going to rally,” Hayes added.

Treasury yields were higher, with the two-year note climbing toward 5%, following comments by the Fed chair and the interest rate hikes by the US and British central banks. Both notes have pared back some gains from the previous day’s session.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 4.149%, while the two-year yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up at 44.7117%.

The US dollar strengthened after the Fed’s hawkish comments, while the euro and the pound slid after the BoE’s statement. The dollar index rose 1.46%, with the euro EUR= down 0.7% to USD 0.9748.

Oil prices fell as an increase in US interest rates pushed up the dollar and heightened fears of a global recession that would crimp fuel demand.

Brent futures were down 1.5% to settle at USD 94.67 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 2.0% to settle at USD 88.17.

Gold prices fell to a more than one-month low after the dollar gained following the Fed’s stiff interest rate stance. Spot gold dropped 0.3% to USD 1,630.15 an ounce, while US gold futures settled 1.2% lower at USD 1,630.9.

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and William Maclean)

 

Traders scramble for protection after Fed spooks markets

Traders scramble for protection after Fed spooks markets

NEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) – Investors rushed to guard against further declines in US stocks on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve dashed hopes for a downshift in the central bank’s inflation-fighting rate hikes.

Trading in S&P 500 put options, typically used as a play in defensive positions, outnumbered calls, usually employed for upside wagers, 1.5-to-1 on Thursday afternoon, the most defensive the measure has been since mid-October, according to Trade Alert data.

The rush for protection comes after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that while interest rates may rise by smaller increments in the months ahead, the central bank will likely take its policy rate higher than previously expected to fight surging consumer prices.

The hawkish message was a disappointment to investors following a rally that saw the S&P 500 .SPX gain around 8% since mid-October through Tuesday on hopes that the Fed was close to a shift in the aggressive monetary policy that has bruised stocks this year. The index is down about 3% since Tuesday’s close and is down around 22% so far in 2022.

“This caught a lot of people by surprise,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “I am definitely seeing a bit more risk aversion to the downside.”

The more defensive tone of trading is in contrast with some bullish activity in the options market prior to the Fed meeting as investors worried about missing out on a rally.

On Thursday afternoon, with the S&P 500 index-tracking SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust’s SPY.P shares down 0.6% to USD 372.56, the most heavily traded SPY contracts were those that would guard against the ETF’s shares slipping below USD 370 by Friday.

SPY puts expiring at the end of next week, struck at the USD 350 mark, just above the ETF’s mid-October intra-day low of USD 348.11, were the fourth most actively traded SPY options on Thursday.

At the single stock level, near-term put options on battered megacaps such as Tesla (TSLA), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and Apple Inc. (AAPL) were among Thursday’s most heavily traded contracts.

While investors appear anxious about more near-term volatility, expectations for a big market crash remain muted. For instance, Nations TailDex, which measures the cost of hedging against a 3-standard deviation move in the SPY ETF, was on pace to close the session at a multi-year low, down sharply over the last six months.

Still, history suggests investors may have good reason to be wary.

“Recent ‘Fed meeting volatility’ has not necessarily been confined to the Fed day itself,” Christopher Jacobson, a strategist at Susquehanna Financial Group, said in a note.

“Over the six prior Fed meetings year-to-date, the SPY has seen an average move of +/- 2.8% from the close on Wednesday (Fed day) to Friday’s close,” he said.

Though the Fed meeting is now in the rear view mirror, other events with the potential to roil markets lay ahead, including October’s employment report, scheduled for release on Friday. According to a Reuters survey of economists, non-farm payrolls likely increased by 200,000 in October.

Next week also brings the US mid-term elections on Tuesday, with S&P 500 Index options implying a +/-2.9% move the day after the election, nearly double the index’s daily average move this year, according to Goldman Sachs.

For now, “the potential for divergent returns driven by the election is clearly under-appreciated by the options market,” the bank’s analysts wrote.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Leslie Adler)

 

US recap: Fed view drives EUR/USD to lowest since Oct. 21

US recap: Fed view drives EUR/USD to lowest since Oct. 21

Nov 3 (Reuters) – The dollar rose on Thursday, extending Wednesday’s Fed-inspired gains and helped by dovish guidance provided by the BoE following its 75bp hike and comments from ECB officials suggesting that they couldn’t match US monetary tightening.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD fell 0.67% and 1.8%, respectively, with losses slightly cushioned by underwhelming US layoffs, jobless claims and ISM non-manufacturing data.

Investors preparing for Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will have noticed that the ISM employment gauge tumbled back into contraction territory, though it has done that several times this year amid dislocations in the labor market.

The unexpected rise in still historically high job openings in September reported Monday suggests demand for labor continues to outstrip supply.

The rise in the ISM prices paid index to 70.7 from 68.7 in September fits with the Fed’s extended tightening guidance.

USD/JPY rose 0.2%, extending the Fed-led recovery from late Wednesday, but with gains slowing on the approach to 150 and 152, where previous yen-selling interventions took place.

Traders also appear wary ahead of this week’s 148.845 swing highs before Friday’s US jobs report. Solid payrolls data would reinforce the new cycle highs in the implied Fed terminal rate well above 5%, enhancing carry trade demand.

Higher yields in the US and beyond also weakened riskier assets, strengthening the dollar bid. The yen benefited on the crosses from related repatriations flows, but the currency is currently less of a haven due to Japan’s massive trade deficit and negligible current account surplus.

Risk proxy AUD/USD fell 0.87% amid broad de-risking, lower commodity prices and dashed hopes China would work away from its zero-COVID policy.

(Editing by Burton Frierson; Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

 

Gold dips as hawkish US Fed lifts dollar, yields

Gold dips as hawkish US Fed lifts dollar, yields

Nov 3 (Reuters) – Gold prices fell to a more than one-month low on Thursday as the dollar and US Treasury yields jumped after hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, denting the non-yielding metal’s appeal.

Spot gold was down 0.3% at USD 1,629.97 per ounce by 1:49 p.m. ET (1749 GMT), after falling more than 1% earlier, hitting its lowest since Sept. 28.

US gold futures settled 1.2% lower at USD 1,630.9.

“I don’t see the tide turning for gold and it gathering bullish momentum again until after the Fed is done raising rates, probably not till March of 2023,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago.

The US central bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday as expected. Powell said it was “very premature” to think about pausing and that the peak for rates would likely be higher than previously expected.

Gold is highly sensitive to rising US interest rates as these increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

The dollar rose 1.4%, making gold more expensive for overseas investors. Benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields were close to their recent peak.

“We could see further losses (in gold) towards the September lows and a possible break of the USD 1,600 level, if yields continue to rise,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

Focus now shift to US non-farm payrolls data for October due on Friday, which could offer more clarity on the Fed’s rate-hike trajectory.

Offering some respite to gold, data showed the US services industry grew at its slowest pace in nearly 2-1/2 years in October, suggesting the Fed’s rate hikes are slowing demand in the overall economy.

Spot silver rose 0.9% to USD 19.45 per ounce, platinum fell 0.5% to USD 925 while palladium fell 2.4% to USD 1,811.15.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel and Shinjini Ganguli)

 

Oil falls as Fed rate hike raises fuel demand concerns

Oil falls as Fed rate hike raises fuel demand concerns

SINGAPORE, Nov 3 (Reuters) – Oil slipped on Thursday as a US interest rate hike pushed up the dollar and increased fears of a global recession that would crimp fuel demand, although losses were capped by concerns over tight supply.

Brent crude dropped 85 cents, or 0.9%, to USD 95.30 a barrel at 0750 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell USD 1.01, or 1.1%, to USD 88.99.

Both benchmarks settled up more than $1 on Wednesday, aided by another drop in US oil inventories, even as the Fed boosted interest rates by 75 basis points and Chair Jerome Powell said it was premature to think about pausing rate increases.

A strong dollar is dragging down oil, with some market participants also likely booking profits following recent gains, CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said.

A strong dollar reduces demand for oil by making the fuel more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

“With the Fed confirming a higher peak in rates, a darkened global economic outlook could continue to pressure the oil futures markets,” Teng added.

Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, said that it was surprising oil had proved so resilient after the move by the Federal Reserve, but he noted there were a couple of fundamental factors putting a floor under prices.

The European Union’s embargo on Russian oil for its invasion of Ukraine is set to start on Dec. 5 and will be followed by a halt on oil product imports in February.

Also likely to keep supply tight in coming months, producers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may struggle to hit previously set output quotas, ANZ analysts said in a note.

OPEC production fell in October for the first time since June. OPEC and its allies, including Russia, also decided to cut their targeted output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from November.

The market is also expecting demand from China to pick up with hopes that Beijing will ease off on its zero-COVID policies. Chinese policymakers pledged on Wednesday that growth was still a priority and they would press on with reforms.

Any indication of a reopening in China following COVID-19 restrictions could be a “monster pivot”, said Innes.

 

(Reporting by Arpan Varghese and Muyu Xu; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Richard Pullin)

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