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Archives: Reuters Articles

Oil settles down USD 2/bbl, ends week lower on Fed worries, ample supply

Oil settles down USD 2/bbl, ends week lower on Fed worries, ample supply

Feb 17 (Reuters) – Oil settled down USD 2 a barrel on Friday and ended the week markedly lower, as traders worried that future US interest rate hikes could weigh on demand and got nervous about mounting signs of ample crude and fuel supply.

On Thursday, two Fed officials warned additional hikes in borrowing costs are essential to curb inflation. The sentiments lifted the US dollar, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Brent crude futures settled down USD 2.14 or 2.5%, to USD 83.00 a barrel, falling 3.9% week on week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude settled down USD 2.15, or 2.7%, to USD 76.34, falling 4.2% from last Friday’s settlement.

“Rate hike jitters have returned with a vengeance,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.

Various signs of ample supply also weighed on the market.

Russian oil producers expect to maintain current volumes of crude oil exports, despite the government’s plan to cut oil output in March, the Vedomosti newspaper said on Friday, citing sources familiar with companies’ plans.

The latest snapshot of US supplies, released on Wednesday, showed crude inventories in the week to Feb. 10 rose by 16.3 million barrels to 471.4 million barrels, their highest level since June 2021.

“Because oil storage is at a 19-month high, refiners are going to stretch out turnaround season for as long as they can,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.

Heating oil cracks fell 5% on Friday as warm weather sapped demand for the fuel in mid-February.

The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by one to 760 in the week to Feb. 17, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co (BKR) said on Friday.

Despite this week’s rig decline, Baker Hughes said the total count was still up 115, or 18%, over this time last year.

Some support came from moves this week by the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to raise their forecasts for global oil demand growth this year, citing expectations for more Chinese demand.

And Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said the current deal by OPEC+, which groups OPEC producers with Russia and others, to cut oil output targets by 2 million barrels per day, would be locked in until the end of the year, adding he remained cautious on Chinese demand.

(Additional reporting by Alex Lawder, Yuka Obayashi and Sudarshan Varadhan; editing by Jason Neely, Kirsten Donovan and David Gregorio)

 

Wall Street ends down sharply as data fuels rate-hike worries

Wall Street ends down sharply as data fuels rate-hike worries

Feb 16 (Reuters) – Wall Street ended sharply lower on Thursday after unexpectedly strong inflation data and a drop in weekly jobless claims added to fears that the US Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates to tame high prices.

A Labor Department report showed the highest rise in producer prices in seven months in January as the cost of energy products surged.

It also showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, offering more evidence that the labor market remains tight.

Thursday’s economic data and other reports this week paint a picture of still-stubborn inflation and an economy that remains relatively strong in the face of the Fed’s rate hike campaign.

“With data like this, the Fed is going to keep raising rates, and none of us want that,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York. “There are at least whispers now of the possibility of a 50-basis-point hike at the next meeting.”

After a selloff in 2022, the S&P 500 has climbed about 7% so far in 2023, fueled by upbeat earnings and cautious expectations the US central bank has completed the brunt of its rate hike campaign.

The Fed is seen pushing the benchmark rate above the 5% mark by May and keeping it above those levels till the year-end.

Also on Thursday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said inflation remains too high, and noted that she was open to raising rates by more than what her colleagues wanted at the last monetary policy meeting. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said continued rate increases will “lock in” slowing inflation, even with continued economic growth.

Selling on Wall Street accelerated late in the session. The S&P 500 declined 1.38% to end at 4,090.51 points.

The Nasdaq declined 1.78% to 11,855.83 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.26% to 33,696.39 points.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) slid 5.7% as the electric vehicle maker said it was recalling 362,000 US vehicles and fixing them via an over-the-air software update after the US auto regulator said its Full Self-Driving Beta software may cause a crash.

Traders exchanged USD 47 billion worth of Tesla shares, accounting for a fifth of all transactions in S&P 500 stocks.

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) rose 5.2% and hit a nine-month high after the network gear maker raised its full-year earnings forecast.

Roku Inc. (ROKU) soared 11% after the video streaming company forecast first-quarter revenue above market estimates.

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) sank almost 16% after the Canadian e-commerce company forecast slowing revenue growth for the current quarter despite price hikes and new product launches.

Across the US stock market, declining stocks outnumbered rising ones by a 2.5-to-one ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 9 new highs and 1 new low; the Nasdaq recorded 90 new highs and 58 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was relatively light, with 11.0 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 11.7 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

(Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru and by Noel Randewich in Oakland, Calif.; Editing by Anil D’Silva, Sriraj Kalluvila, Shinjini Ganguli and Aurora Ellis)

US recap: Latest strong US data fails to trigger EUR/USD breakdown

US recap: Latest strong US data fails to trigger EUR/USD breakdown

Feb 16 (Reuters) – The dollar index was little changed after earlier gains on US PPI and claims data that lifted Treasury yields and Fed hike pricing, somewhat subdued by sour housing and Philly Fed reports and doubts about how much more tightening markets can realistically factor in.

Though most February’s US data has been surprisingly strong and inflationary, the market is finding it difficult to price in a Fed rate peak above 5.25%, though the year-end view has rebounded more than 50bp to 5.05% since the Feb. 2 payrolls shock.

Two-year Treasury yields are now up 56bp from Feb. 2’s lows, while 2-year bund yields are up 42bp, during which time EUR/USD fell 3.4% to find support Monday and Thursday at 1.0656/55 by the daily cloud top.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, a non-voter, said she thought the Fed ought to have raised rates by 50bp, not 25bp, at its last meeting, boosting the rebound in Treasury yields and the dollar initially, though both faded into the London close and New York afternoon.

And the recent consolidation of the dollar’s post-payrolls and CPI gains could persist in the absence of top-tier US data until next Friday. That day’s Japanese CPI release and nomination hearings for the BoJ’s new leadership picks could also create some volatility.

With the BoJ quadrupling the repo rate on various 10-year JGB issues to keep yields below the 50bp yield curve cap, potential policy normalization remains on traders’ radar, even if more on the periphery for now.

EUR/USD rose 0.07% and USD/JPY fell 0.32% and sterling slid 0.11%, as BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill acknowledged some loosening in the tight labor market and as the market no longer fully prices in two more 25bp rate hikes.

AUD/USD recovered from the 6-week lows made after another weak employment report.

(Editing by Burton Frierson; Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

 

Gold rebounds from 1-month lows as dollar cools

Gold rebounds from 1-month lows as dollar cools

Feb 16 (Reuters) – Gold prices bounced off one-month lows on Thursday, as the dollar gave up most of its gains and as some investors seized the chance to pick up the bullion at relatively cheaper levels.

Spot gold firmed 0.4% to USD 1,842.67 per ounce by 2:45 p.m. ET (1945 GMT).

US gold futures rose 0.4% to settle at USD 1,851.80.

Following strong PPI data and a “compelling case for 50bps at the last meeting” from Cleveland Fed President Mester, gold made new lows, said Tai Wong, a senior trader at Heraeus Precious Metals in New York.

However, two-year yields and the dollar moving to session lows triggered some short-covering in gold after the recent sharp, unpleasant drop, supporting bullion along with some short-term bargain-hunters looking for a quick scalp, Wong said.

Gold prices fell as much as 6.8% from near 10-month highs reached earlier this month to Thursday’s lows.

Data showed the US producer price index bounced to 0.7%, higher than consensus forecast of 0.4%, while jobless claims data showed a resilient labor market.

Following the data, benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields rose to over one-month peaks, while the dollar extended gains to a six-week high, making greenback-priced gold expensive for holders of other currencies.

“Inflation appears to be slowing, but at too slow a pace – it’s possible that rates will have to remain higher for longer and that is not a positive context for gold,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Two additional rate hikes of 25 basis points are expected by the US central bank in March and May. Financial markets are now betting on another increase in June.

Rising US interest rates and bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield bullion.

Spot silver gained 0.4% to USD 21.71 per ounce, platinum rose 1% to USD 924.02, and palladium rose 4.2% to USD 1,525.39.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen and Bharat Govind Gautam in Bengaluru; Editing by Tomasz Janowski, Maju Samuel and Shailesh Kuber)

 

Oil slightly lower on mixed US economic data, crude stocks growth

Oil slightly lower on mixed US economic data, crude stocks growth

NEW YORK, Feb 16 (Reuters) – Oil prices settled slightly lower on Thursday after trading in a narrow range as the market weighed mixed US economic signals and prospects for a Chinese demand recovery with a build in US crude stockpiles.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 85.14 a barrel, losing 24 cents. US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled at USD 78.49 a barrel, shedding 10 cents.

While US data suggested the US jobs market remained robust, a gauge of manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic region unexpectedly plunged.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said the central bank could become more aggressive with rate rises if inflation surprises to the upside. The latest reading on inflation showed prices remaining stubbornly high. But Mester does not expect the US to fall into recession.

The dollar briefly climbed to a six-week peak against a basket of currencies after the US data, weighing on oil, as a strong dollar makes the greenback-denominated commodity more expensive for holders of other currencies.

“Brent failed again to move above the 100-day moving average this week,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

The Brent benchmark has been swinging within an USD 80-USD 90 a barrel range for the past six weeks, while WTI has ranged between USD 72 and USD 83 since December.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday reported US crude oil stockpiles last week rose to their highest level since June 2021 after a larger-than-expected build.

“Oil prices are very choppy at the moment, with traders having a lot to take in,” OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said in a note, pointing to Russia’s 500,000 barrel-per-day cut to oil production in March, a strong Chinese economic recovery and an uncertain global economic outlook.

The prospect of a Chinese demand recovery has contributed to bullish sentiment.

China will account for almost half of global oil demand growth this year after relaxing its COVID-19 curbs, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

The Paris-based watchdog echoed similar views from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which this week raised its 2023 global oil demand growth forecast on Chinese demand growth.

On the supply side, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the current OPEC+ deal to cut oil production targets by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) would be locked in until the end of the year, adding he remained cautious on Chinese demand.

A plan by the administration of US President Joe Biden to release more oil from the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve would also “most likely limit any rallies that develop in coming weeks,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York.

(Additional reporting by Rowena Edwards in London, Mohi Narayan in New Delhi; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Bernadette Baum and David Gregorio)

 

US recap: Dollar rallies as US data crushes forecasts again

US recap: Dollar rallies as US data crushes forecasts again

Feb 15 (Reuters) – The dollar index gained 0.8% on Wednesday on broad-based advances following a fresh batch of far-above-forecast US economic reports, highlighted led by a 3% surge in retail sales, with chart resistance against key majors looking vulnerable.

The New York Fed manufacturing index, US manufacturing output and the NAHB housing market index added to the picture with improvements from more negative previous readings.

Taken within the context of the shockingly strong January employment report and still sizzling CPI data, the market is pricing in higher-for-longer Fed rates, now projected to peak at 5.25% and ending 2023 at 5.06%.

EUR/USD fell 0.6%, is by February’s 1.0656 low on EBS and is threatening to close below nearby supports, which would augur a broader retreat toward January’s 1.0482 low by the 38.2% Fibo of the September-February uptrend at 1.0459.

Prices were not helped by ECB President Christine Lagarde’s policy comments, which favored further rate hikes though she noted long-term inflation expectations remained near 2%.

Two-year bund-Treasury yield spreads were only marginally lower, in part due to a 5-bp rebound in 10-2-year Treasury curve inversion trades that nullified the expected rise in 2-year yields in response to inflationary US data.

The associated 4- to 5-bp rise in longer-term Treasury yields was partly a concession ahead of Wednesday’s 20-year Treasury auction.

Sterling tumbled 1.4% toward February’s 1.1961 lows, yanked lower earlier by below-forecast UK inflation data that trimmed BoE rate hike pricing and gilts yields, while Treasury and bund yields advanced.

USD/JPY rose 0.84% to well beyond important resistance near 133 and toward 2023’s 134.78 high on soaring Treasury-JGB yield spreads.

That high looks permeable given new BoJ leadership nominees that look unlikely to rush normalization of the central bank’s ultra-easy policies.

The Australian dollar plunged 1.3% amid risk-off flows stemming from the RBA and other central banks being forced to raise rates further to defeat inflation.

Thursday brings US PPI, jobless claims, Philly Fed and housing starts and several Fed speakers.

(Editing by Burton Frierson; Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

 

Wall Street watchdog shortens time-frame for stock trades, proposes new investment adviser rules

Wall Street watchdog shortens time-frame for stock trades, proposes new investment adviser rules

Feb 15 (Reuters) – Wall Street’s top regulator on Wednesday adopted rules tightening the timeframe for stock trades in an effort to tamp down the kind of risk seen in 2021’s GameStop fiasco, when retail investors suffered heavy losses.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also proposed changing rules protecting client assets held by investment managers, a move that could hinder cryptocurrency platforms from serving a key marketplace role.

In a 3-2 vote, the SEC opted to shorten the time between when a securities order is placed and when a trade concludes -something officials say can lessen the kind of “systemic risk” spotlighted in early 2021 when the share price of the consumer electronics retailer GameStop Corp. (GME) plummeted amid intense market volatility.

Trade groups have broadly welcomed the commission’s proposal to cut the so-called settlement cycle to a single business day from two, six years after an earlier SEC rule shortened the period from three days.

But some have complained the commission isn’t leaving enough time for them to adjust before the rule takes effect in May 2024. Republican Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda voted against the rule for this reason.

The longer a trade remains unsettled, the more likely a buyer or seller may default — by refusing to pay or to hand over shares sold.

Clearing houses can require trading platforms to offset such risks with margin deposits, costs that can skyrocket during volatility and market stress. High margin deposits caused trading platforms such as Robinhood Markets to block purchases of GameStop’s shares in early 2021. The price then plummeted.

A shorter settlement cycle should see fewer defaults, helping cut margin costs and reducing the chances of such a scenario recurring, according to the SEC.

SEC TAKES AIM AT CRYPTO ‘CUSTODIANS’

In a 4-1 vote, the commission proposed new requirements for investment advisers, who can only maintain custody of client funds or securities if they meet requirements to protect the assets.

The SEC’s draft proposal would expand these requirements to any client assets, including real estate, loan participations and digital assets not currently deemed funds or securities.

Advisers need to hold investors’ assets with a firm deemed to be a “qualified custodian.” SEC enforcement staff have been probing registered investment advisors over whether they are meeting those existing rules when it comes to clients’ digital assets, Reuters has previously reported.

Among other things, Wednesday’s proposal would require crypto firms to guarantee in writing that client assets held on behalf of hedge funds and others will be protected against loss and bankruptcy.

“Make no mistake. Based upon how crypto platforms generally operate, investment advisers cannot rely on them as qualified custodians,” SEC chair Gary Gensler said in a statement about the proposal.

By explicitly saying the legally compliant custody of digital assets was unlikely, the proposal could hinder such investments, Republican members of the commission said.

“How could an adviser seeking to comply with this rule possibly invest client funds in crypto assets after reading this release?” Commissioner Mark Uyeda said in prepared remarks.

However, Gensler told reporters on Wednesday the solution was simply for trading platforms to observe rules that have been in effect since 2009.

“I continue to encourage the platforms to come in and properly come into compliance,” he said, noting that investors lost improperly safeguarded assets in recent crypto bankruptcies such as that of FTX, which collapsed in November.

However, Miller Whitehouse-Levine, policy director at DeFi Education Fund, described Gensler’s position as an attempt to cut off digital assets from the traditional financial system.

“This should end any doubt that ‘come in and register’ is a fig leaf for the SEC usurping Congress to block crypto in the US,” he said.

(Reporting by Douglas Gillison, Chris Prentice and Hannah Lang; Editing by Megan Davies, Bradley Perrett and Nick Zieminski)

 

Gold drops to over 1-month low as rate-hike bets fuel dollar

Gold drops to over 1-month low as rate-hike bets fuel dollar

Feb 15 (Reuters) – Gold prices dropped to their lowest in over a month on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger dollar as better-than-expected US economic data raised worries the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates further.

Spot gold fell 1% to USD 1,835.39 per ounce by 2:53 p.m. ET (1953 GMT). US gold futures settled 1.1% lower at USD 1,845.30.

US retail sales rose 3% in January over the previous month, highlighting economic resilience despite higher borrowing costs.

Higher retail sales were “another indication that if the Fed wants to cool inflation, they’re going to have to raise interest rates to choke off some of this demand,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

This comes after data on Tuesday showed the US consumer price index had increased year-on-year by 6.4%. That was down from 6.5% in December, but above the 6.2% estimated by economists.

Following the US data, the dollar index rose to an over one-month high, making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

“In case of a re-acceleration of inflation and a return to more rapid interest rate increases, gold and silver would suffer,” said Carsten Menke, head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer.

“In contrast, gold and silver would benefit if the Fed started to reduce interest rates due to strengthening signs of recession.”

Also weighing on gold, Fed officials said earlier this week the US central bank will need to keep raising interest rates gradually.

The yellow metal is considered an inflation hedge, yet rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

Markets are now pricing a peak above 5.2% and traders are becoming less sure that cuts are coming in 2023. Rates currently stand at 4.5% to 4.75%.

Spot silver dropped 1% to USD 21.63 per ounce, platinum was down 1.8% to USD 914.34, and palladium fell 2.1% to USD 1,465.80.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen and additional reporting by Bharat Govind Gautam in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

 

Oil little changed as market discounts big US crude storage build

Oil little changed as market discounts big US crude storage build

NEW YORK, Feb 15 (Reuters) – Oil futures were flat to lower on Wednesday as the US dollar strengthened and investors worried that rising interest rates would slow the economy and cut fuel demand.

Oil’s losses were limited as the market discounted a big build in US crude stocks due to a data adjustment and as the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast higher global oil demand growth.

Brent futures slid 20 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 85.38 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 47 cents, or 0.6%, to USD 78.59.

The US dollar rose to a near six-week high against a currency basket on strong US retail sales data last month and recent US inflation data, suggesting the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep monetary policy tight.

“Crude prices are under pressure as the dollar rallies following impressive economic data that paves the way for more Fed tightening,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at data and analytics firm OANDA.

A stronger dollar can cut oil demand, making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Federal Reserve officials said the US central bank will need to maintain gradual interest rate increases to fight inflation. Investors worry higher rates could slow the economy.

US crude stockpiles jumped by 16.3 million barrels last week to 471.4 million barrels, their highest since June 2021, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.

That was much bigger than the 1.2-million-barrel increase analysts forecast in a Reuters poll. But analysts said an unusually large crude oil supply adjustment contributed to the outsized build.

“Once everyone realized the adjustment threw off the EIA data, scepticism about the big (crude storage) build crept into the market,” said John Kilduff, a partner at investment advisory Again Capital LLC in New York. “It’s a one-off.”

The IEA raised its forecast for 2023 oil demand growth and said there could be a supply deficit in the second half due to restrained production from OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other oil suppliers including Russia.

The IEA said China will make up nearly half of this year’s oil demand growth after it relaxed its COVID-19 curbs, and said about 1 million bpd of production from Russia will be shut in by the end of the first quarter, citing a European ban on seaborne imports and a Group of Seven (G7) price cap.

The G7 group of wealthy countries includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Britain, and the United States.

On Tuesday, OPEC also raised its projection for global oil demand growth and pointed to a tighter market in 2023.

(Additional reporting by Alex Lawler in London, Laila Kearney in New York and Muyu Xu in Singapore; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Mike Harrison and David Gregorio)

Sticky inflation, weak earnings could hobble US stock surge

Sticky inflation, weak earnings could hobble US stock surge

NEW YORK, Feb 14 (Reuters) – A rally that has lifted stocks in the early weeks of 2023 may struggle to find its next leg higher as investors face more expensive valuations, a weak earnings outlook, and an uncertain economic backdrop.

Tuesday’s closely watched inflation report on US consumer prices showed the smallest annual price increase since late 2021. But the data did little to dispel expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to continue raising rates higher and keep them elevated for longer to drive inflation lower.

Meanwhile, companies in recent weeks have reported tepid fourth-quarter earnings and analysts’ profit outlooks have grown more pessimistic, while stock valuations are at their highest level in about six months.

“What this means is that we are probably going to be a little bit more choppy at this level,” said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago, Illinois. “I don’t see this being the kind of report that we can get a strong rally off of.”

After initially rising on Tuesday, the S&P 500 was last down 0.5% on the day. Through Monday, the benchmark index had climbed 7.8% in 2023, after last year posting its biggest annual percentage drop since 2008.

The CPI data continues the trend of moderating annual inflation rates that have helped propel this year’s rally in risk assets. However, a stunningly strong jobs report earlier this month has fueled expectations that the Fed will need to raise interest rates higher than expected to rein in inflation in a still-humming economy.

The latest inflation number did not alter that outlook. Futures markets on Tuesday afternoon were pricing in rates rising to a peak of 5.3% in July and inching lower to 5% in December, a steeper trajectory than traders had projected at the beginning of the year. Both rates were slightly above where they stood prior to the CPI report.

The Fed has raised its policy rate by 450 basis points since last March from near zero to a 4.50%-4.75% range.

Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, were higher after the data, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note last at 3.78%, continuing a move that has seen them rebound after falling to start the year. Higher yields on Treasuries, which are seen as among the market’s safest investments, can make stocks less appealing while also reducing the allure of equities in certain valuation models.

The market “continues to be incredibly sensitive to any data that will suggest that the Fed will have to either raise rates more or keep them higher for longer,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.

At the same time, the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio has climbed to 18.3 times, from about 17 times to start the year, according to Refinitiv Datastream. With fourth-quarter 2022 earnings estimated to have fallen from a year ago, analysts now forecast S&P 500 earnings falling 3.7% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2023 and 3.1% in the second quarter.

“I don’t see how you can get inflation back to target without a recession, and that means equities will be disappointed either on inflation or on earnings,” said Tim Drayson, head of economics at Legal & General Investment Management.

Some have also expressed concern about investor positioning, which has grown stretched in recent weeks as market participants piled into the stock rally.

One measure of equity positioning tracked by Deutsche Bank has bounced back to its highest point in about a year, from historically low levels in 2022.

“With investor positioning now more balanced, markets are more likely to be impacted by any bad economic news,” UBS Global Wealth Management said in a note on Tuesday.

Still, not all signs were negative for stocks. Fund managers’ cash levels remained above 5%, according to BofA Global Research’s monthly survey released Tuesday. Those levels have edged lower but remain near historic highs, an indicator the bank’s strategists say is positive for stocks.

Some investors are also becoming more optimistic that the economy can avoid a recession. Goldman Sachs economists last week lowered their probability of a recession over the next twelve months from 35% to 25% following strong economic data.

Michael Farr, of Farr, Miller and Washington, said he would be a buyer of individual stocks if they met his criteria, “but certainly wouldn’t be a buyer of the stock market.”

“The risk is higher and the potential reward is much lower right now,” Farr said.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Additional reporting by Naomi Rovnick in London; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Nick Zieminski)

 

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