Oil rises on China stimulus expectations, weaker dollar

CHENNAI, April 11 (Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in US crude stockpiles.

Brent crude futures rose 64 cents, or 0.8%, to UDS 84.82 a barrel at 0557 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate futures gained 67 cents, or 0.8%, to USD 80.41 a barrel.

Data from China showed that consumer inflation in March hit the slowest pace since September 2021, suggesting demand weakness persists amid an uneven economic recovery, which spurred expectations Beijing may take steps to boost growth.

“China’s March CPI is lower than expected, which may promote the Chinese government to further stimulate the economy,” said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets.

Crude futures also climbed as the dollar eased on expectations that the US Federal Reserve is getting closer to ending its rate hike cycle. A weaker greenback makes oil cheaper for those holding other currencies.

“With more central banks pausing rate hikes, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Korea … the expectation for the Fed to further scale back its tightening policy has been strengthened,” Teng said.

Signs of strong fuel demand in India, the world’s third-biggest oil consumer, in March also supported prices.

Last month, fuel consumption jumped by 5% from a year earlier to a record 4.83 million barrels per day.

Oil futures have climbed more than 5% since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia surprised the market last week with a new round of production cuts starting in May.

On the US upply front, industry data on US crude stockpiles is due on Tuesday. Five analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 1.3 million barrels in the week to April 7.

A US inflation report to be released on Wednesday could help investors gauge the near-term trajectory for interest rates.

(Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan in CHENNAI; Additional reporting by Stephanie Kelly and Trixie Yap; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Sonali Paul)

Oil rises about 2% with US and China inflation in focus

NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) – Oil prices rose about 2% on Tuesday on hopes that the Federal Reserve might ease up on its policy tightening after a key US inflation report this week, though concerns remain over Chinese demand.

Brent crude futures settled up USD 1.43, or 1.7%, to USD 85.61 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate futures rose USD 1.79, or 2.2%, to USD 81.53 a barrel.

Investors were more optimistic that the US Federal Reserve is getting closer to ending its cycle of interest rate hikes, making dollar-priced oil cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.

The prospect of the Fed raising its benchmark interest rate only once more and in a 25-basis-point increment is a useful starting point but the central bank’s policy path will depend on incoming data, New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday.

A US inflation report to be released on Wednesday is expected to help investors gauge the near-term trajectory for interest rates.

“The short-term crude demand outlook will soon be clearer. This week we will find out if the US economy is taking steps into the recession pool or if it is going to do a cannonball into it,” said Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA.

Data from China, however, showed consumer inflation in March rose at its slowest pace since September 2021, suggesting demand weakness persists in an uneven economic recovery.

“China’s March CPI is lower than expected, which may promote the Chinese government to further stimulate the economy,” said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets.

Oil futures have climbed around 7% since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia surprised the market last week with further cuts to production targets from May.

OPEC output will fall by 500,000 bpd in 2023, then rise by 1 million bpd in 2024, after the group’s output agreement expires, the Energy Information Administration forecast on Tuesday.

Total non-OPEC liquid fuels production is expected to grow by 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 and by 1 million bpd in 2024, the EIA said.

In France, the restart of the last of the four domestic refineries shuttered by a month-long strike signaled a likely boost to demand for oil.

On the US supply front, industry data on US crude stockpiles was due on Tuesday. The average estimate from five analysts polled by Reuters was that crude inventories fell by about 1.3 million barrels in the week to April 7.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly; Additional reporting by Noah Browning, Sudarshan Varadhan and Trixie Yap; Editing by David Goodman, David Holmes and Mark Heinrich)

China focus turns back to the macro

April 11 (Reuters) – Asian market trading volumes should return to more normal levels on Tuesday as investors around the world return from the Easter break, with Chinese inflation and an interest rate decision in South Korea the key events in a pretty packed regional calendar.

Australian consumer confidence will also be released on Tuesday, along with unemployment and trade data from the Philippines, and trade and inflation reports from Taiwan.

There was nothing from US or global equities on Monday for traders in Asia to hang their hats on, although US bond yields and implied rates continue to inch higher on the view that the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point on May 3.

There was more movement in currency markets, where the dollar rose across the board and the yen sank. The Japanese currency slumped 1% to a four-week low against the dollar following the first public remarks from new Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor Kazuo Ueda.

Ueda said it was appropriate to maintain the bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy for now as inflation has yet to hit 2% as a trend, suggesting he will be in no rush to dial back its massive stimulus.

At the same time, the BOJ must also avoid being too late in normalizing monetary policy, a sign he will be more open to tweaking its controversial ‘yield curve control’ policy than his dovish predecessor Haruhiko Kuroda.

He has his work cut out.

Chinese stock markets, meanwhile, get a chance to recover from Monday’s 0.5% fall – the steepest in three weeks – now that Beijing has completed its military drills around Taiwan.

Investors can turn their attention back to the economic data, specifically inflation on Tuesday. Producer price inflation is expected to have fallen further in March, according to analysts’ estimates of a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, which would be the fastest pace of deflation since June 2020.

The annual rate of consumer price inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 1.0%, the slowest in a year, and the monthly rate is expected to rise to 0% from -0.5% in February.

If these forecasts are broadly accurate, price pressures in China would appear to be extremely benign, giving the central bank room to loosen policy and stimulate the economy.

In South Korea, the central bank looks to have ended its tightening cycle and will likely keep its main interest rate on hold at a 15-year high of 3.50% on Tuesday. With the economy on the brink of recession, it could well cut rates later this year.

Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

– IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington

– China PPI and CPI (March)

– South Korea interest rate decision (seen on hold)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

Wall Street meanders, dollar gains as Fed rate hike seen in May

NEW YORK, April 10 (Reuters) – US stocks closed mostly flat and the dollar rose on Monday after strong jobs data last week pointed to the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates in May, while the yen eased after Japan’s new central bank governor vowed to maintain ultra-loose policy.

Gold prices slipped below the key USD 2,000 level due to a resurgent dollar, while Treasury yields edged higher on growing market expectations that the Fed will hike rates when policymakers conclude a two-day meeting on May 3.

Consumer price index data on Wednesday will encourage the market to see a rate hike next month, but more important reports on Thursday and Friday will show the extent of emergency funding for banks, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

“My sense is that the labor market and CPI would favor the Fed raising rates again. However, what has made the market have second thoughts is the extent of the tightening of lending.”

“We saw in the last two weeks there’s a record decline in commercial and industry loans,” Chandler said.

Futures show a 71.7% likelihood that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points to a range of 5.0%-5.25% next month, CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows.

But recession worries have risen as commercial lending fell after the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March tightened credit conditions among US banks. The Fed’s emergency lending program has eased some of those concerns.

Fed lending to banks over the past four weeks has increased more than USD 400 billion and offset nearly two-thirds of the quantitative tightening that began a year ago, said Joe LaVorgna, chief US economist at SMBC Nikko Securities in New York.

“To the extent the market has all this liquidity sloshing around, people get more confident that the Fed is going to be there to save us in some capacity,” LaVorgna said. “The market is going to stay bid, it won’t go down.”

Traders also are betting that the Fed will cut rates in the second half to ward off an economic downturn, but the two-year Treasury note’s 4% rate and what will likely be a 5% Fed target rate is a “huge discrepancy” that cannot continue, LaVorgna said.

Minutes of the Fed’s policy meeting in March are also scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

Trading was light as markets were closed in Europe, Australia and Hong Kong for Easter.

The dollar index rose 0.52% and the two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, added 4.2 basis points to 4.014%.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 gained 0.10% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.03%. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe closed down 0.11%.

The dollar extended gains against the yen to 133.87, the highest since March 15, on receding expectations of a near-term tweak to Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy.

Japan’s new central bank Governor Kazuo Ueda said it was appropriate to maintain the bank’s policy for now as inflation has yet to hit 2% as a trend, suggesting he will be in no rush to dial back its massive stimulus.

The yen was weakened 1.08% at 133.57 per dollar.

Asian shares were little changed. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.04%.

In China, shares slipped, with the blue chip CSI300 Index 0.32% lower and the Shanghai Composite Index easing 0.16% on rising geopolitical tensions around the Taiwan Strait.

China announced three days of drills on Saturday, after Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen returned to Taipei following a meeting in Los Angeles with US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

US gold futures settled down 1.1% at USD 1,989.10 an ounce.

US crude fell 96 cents to settle at USD 79.74 a barrel and Brent settled down 94 cents at USD 84.18 a barrel.

(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Will Dunham and Richard Chang)

Gloomy US bank sector could yield payoff for contrarian options bets

NEW YORK, April 10 (Reuters) – Weeks after a banking crisis pummeled financial stocks, some options strategists say the heightened pessimism in the sector presents an attractive opportunity to position for a rebound ahead of earnings season.

While the S&P 500 index has advanced 6% since mid-March, when the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) sparked tumult in the banking sector, investors have been more wary of financial stocks. The S&P 500 Banks Group is up just 3% from its March low and remains down 14% for the year.

The pervasive gloom around financial stocks has increased the cost for investors betting on more downside while making it relatively inexpensive to bet on a rebound. With banks set to kick off their earnings on Friday, the risk-reward may be favorable to investors brave enough to step in with contrarian wagers, option mavens say.

“Upside pricing is attractive relative to the downside in many of these stocks,” said Anand Omprakash, head of derivatives and quantitative strategy at Elevation Securities.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup Inc (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) are set to report results on Friday, while Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Bank Of America (BAC) are on deck the following week.

Positioning in options markets illustrates the pessimism that has dogged the sector for weeks, even though worries over financial stocks have ebbed after US regulators backstopped both depositors and financial institutions linked to SVB.

Thirty-day implied volatility skew – a measure of the relative demand for puts versus calls – on JP Morgan Chase is at 22.8%, higher than it has been about 85% of the time over the last year, data from Trade Alert showed. Bank of America and Citigroup also show similarly elevated skew. Calls convey the right to buy shares at a fixed price in the future, while puts offer the right to sell stock at a set price.

Still, some investors appear to smell a bargain.

“Recent conversations with clients suggest some believe upcoming earnings will be a positive catalyst for financials,” said Amy Wu Silverman, head of derivatives strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

Better-than-expected earnings and positive messaging from CEOs could set the stage for investors to reverse a trade that has seen them bet on downside in financials while seeking safety in big tech stocks, according to Silverman. The S&P 500 tech sector is up 10% since March 10.

“Using options is a good way to play that,” she said.

Analysts expect S&P 500 financials to post year-over-year earnings growth in the first quarter of 4.3%, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv, making it among just four sectors whose earnings are expected to climb. Investors will scrutinize banks’ balance sheets to assess how much capital they hold, their levels of uninsured deposits, and the potential gains or losses from their securities portfolios.

For investors who believe financial earnings and guidance will come in better than expected, Elevation Securities recommended buying Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund call options at the 33 strike. On Monday, the XLF ETF was about flat at USD 31.95.

Over the last two years, buying XLF shares on the day the first of the big banks reported results and holding until the end of the month has yielded 1.3% on average, according to Refinitiv data.

“Given how beaten up bank stocks are, buying calls into earnings can make sense,” said Michael Purves, chief executive officer at Tallbacken Capital Advisors.

But using options to position for upside can be risky, especially for traders tempted by the richer put premiums to sell puts to fund the purchase of upside calls, analysts warned.

Such trades would likely suffer steep losses if the selloff in the sector resumed.

“(It’s) not for the faint of heart,” Silverman said.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Mark Porter)

Gold falls below USD 2,000 as US jobs growth lifts dollar

April 10 (Reuters) – Gold retreated below the key USD 2,000 level on Monday as the dollar advanced on Friday’s strong US jobs numbers, while traders also positioned for inflation readings this week that could influence interest rate hikes.

Spot gold fell nearly 1% to USD 1,988.88 per ounce by 1:57 p.m. EDT (17:57 GMT), while US gold futures settled down 1.1% at USD 1,989.10.

US Treasury yields rose following a US jobs report that showed a still strong pace of hiring in March, likely giving room for the Federal Reserve to hike rates again.

Lower yields previously gave metals a reprieve to move higher, but with further rises in energy prices led by oil possible, “rate hikes are still on the table and that can push gold back even further,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Chances of a 25-basis point rate hike next month were now pegged at 72%, driving an uptick in the dollar, making dollar-denominated bullion less attractive for holders of other currencies.

Higher interest rates usually dull the appeal of zero-yielding gold, despite its traditional status as an inflation hedge.

Another rate hike could “really box the market in,” with gold likely consolidating in a range, Pavilonis added.

Gold surpassed USD 2,000 last week as weak US services sector and job openings data made a rate hike next month less likely.

The US CPI print is due at 1230 GMT (8:30 a.m. ET) on Wednesday, and will be followed later in the day by the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting.

Signs that US disinflation is gathering pace, allowing the Fed to pause rate hikes sooner rather than later, may restore gold to recent highs, said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity.

Silver fell 0.9% to USD 24.78 per ounce, platinum shed 1.5% to USD 992.07, while palladium dropped 3.5% to USD 1,415.19.

(Reporting by Deep Vakil and Seher Dareen in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta and Susan Fenton)

Funds dump 10-year Treasuries, eye steeper US curve: McGeever

ORLANDO, Florida, April 10 (Reuters) – Hedge funds started the second quarter positioning for a steeper US yield curve by offloading 10-year US Treasuries futures at one of the fastest rates on record.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data for the week ending April 4 offer the first insight into how funds are emerging from the historic volatility in March sparked by US and Swiss bank collapses earlier in the month.

In one way, betting on a steeper 2s/10s yield curve indicates funds are hoping the trend of recent weeks continues – the curve steepened around 33 basis points in March, the biggest monthly steepening in a decade.

The difference is, that was driven by a massive “bull-steepening,” buying two-year futures when the banking shock forced funds to cover their near-record short position. These latest figures suggest a shift to “bear-steepening,” or selling longer-dated bonds.

Bull-steepening is when yields for shorter-term bonds fall quicker than longer-dated paper, and bear-steepening is when yields on longer-term bonds rise faster than shorter-dated paper.

In the week through April 4, funds increased their 10-year Treasuries futures net short position by almost 150,000 contracts. There have only been seven weeks of heavier selling since the contracts were launched in the mid-1980s, CFTC data show.

That took the net short position to 621,031 contracts, close to the 628,000 contracts from late February, which was the largest since 2018.

On the other side of the 2s/10s curve trade, meanwhile, funds were net buyers of two-year Treasuries futures, trimming their net short position in the week by 23,422 contracts to almost 500,000.

A short position is essentially a wager that an asset’s price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. In bonds, yields fall when prices rise, and move up when prices fall.

Hedge funds take positions in bonds futures for hedging purposes and relative value trades, so the CFTC data is not reflective of purely directional bets.

Hedge funds will be hoping April is kinder to them than March as far as their macro trades are concerned. They were completely blindsided by the banking shock and subsequent collapse in yields, especially at the short end of the curve.

Macro systematic funds, which place their bets based on algorithmic and technical models, fell 6.7% in March, its worst monthly performance in over five years, Bank of America said. London-based Rokos Capital Management was down around 15% in the month, said a source familiar with the matter.

It is likely to be another volatile month with little to no visibility on the economic data or Fed policy outlook, especially given the heightened uncertainty surrounding US bank deposit flows, lending and credit standards.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell around 20 basis points to 3.35% in the week through April 4, then slipped to a fresh seven-month low of 3.27% before heading back up to 3.40% on the back of the March employment report.

The 2s/10s curve inverted further too, by around 20 basis points to -60 bps.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. Reporting by Jamie McGeever; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

Oil settles lower as rate-hike worries balance tighter supplies

April 10 (Reuters) – Oil prices settled lower on Monday, after rising for three straight weeks, as concern about further interest rate hikes that could curb demand balanced the prospect of a tighter market due to supply cuts from OPEC+ producers.

The US dollar rose after US jobs data pointed to a tight labor market, heightening expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike. Dollar strength makes oil more expensive for other currency holders and can weigh on demand.

Brent crude settled down 96 cents, or 0.2%, at USD 84.58 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate also fell 94, or 0.1%, to USD 79.74. Both benchmarks fell by more than USD 1 earlier in the session

“We look for this week’s trade to be heavily influenced by inflation data featured by Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI that will likely revive the specter of higher interest rates that could strengthen the US dollar,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois.

Crude last week jumped more than 6% after OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, surprised the market with a new round of production cuts starting in May.

Oil also drew support from a steeper-than-expected drop in US crude inventories last week, as well as a decline in gasoline and distillate stocks, hinting at rising demand.

In global financial markets, a US inflation report to be released on Wednesday could help investors gauge the near-term trajectory for interest rates.

Also coming up are monthly reports from OPEC on Thursday and the International Energy Agency on Friday, which will update oil demand and supply forecasts.

(Additional reporting by Alex Lawler; Additional reporting by Florence Tan in Singapore and Mohi Narayan in New Delhi; Editing by Christopher Cushing, Kirsten Donovan, Barbara Lewis and Sandra Maler)

Major Gulf markets retreat in early trade

April 5 (Reuters) – Major stock markets in the Gulf were subdued in early trade on Wednesday, as signs of a slowing US labour market made investors nervous about the economic outlook.

Asia trade was thinned by holidays in Hong Kong and China, leaving MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan faring little better than flat, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6% and was set for the biggest one-day percentage fall since mid-March.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index eased 0.2%, hit by a 1.5% fall in Dr Sulaiman Al-Habib Medical Services and a 0.4% decrease in Al Rajhi Bank.

Elsewhere, Arabian Centres Co slid 4.4% as the stock traded ex-dividend.

In the previous two sessions, the Saudi index posted sharp gains after a surprise announcement by OPEC+ to cut more production jolted markets.

Surprise new cuts to the OPEC+ group’s output targets could push oil prices towards USD 100 a barrel, setting the scene for another clash with the West grappling with higher interest rates, analysts and traders said on Monday.

Dubai’s main share index dropped 0.1%, with utility firm Dubai Electricity and Water Authority losing 0.8%.

In Abu Dhabi, the index retreated 0.2%.

Separately, non-oil business activity growth in the United Arab Emirates bounced back to the fastest pace in five months in March, a business survey showed on Wednesday, supported by new orders and the quickest jobs growth in almost seven years.

The Qatari index fell 0.2%, on course to end two sessions of gains, weighed down by 1.7% fall in Commercial Bank.

(Reporting by Ateeq Shariff in Bengaluru; editing by Uttaresh Venkateshwaran)

Euro zone yields edge up amid mixed signals about monetary policy

April 5 (Reuters) – Euro zone government bond yields edged higher on Wednesday amid mixed signals about the monetary tightening path from economic data and central banks’ officials.

Germany’s 10-year government bond yield, the bloc’s benchmark, was up 0.5 basis points (bps) at 2.27%. Its 2-year bond yield, the most sensitive to expectations for policy rates, was up 1.5 bps at 2.64%.

ECB governing council member Gabriel Makhlouf on Tuesday argued that the euro area would need a stronger monetary policy response if it ends up in a wage-price spiral.

German industrial orders rose more than expected in February, increasing by 4.8% from the previous month.

In the United States, Treasury yields slid on Tuesday after US job openings suggested the labour market was finally cooling and could allow the Federal Reserve to loosen its grip on monetary policy.

After the release of data, the Fed’s Loretta Mester said the US central bank likely has more interest rate rises ahead amid signs the recent banking sector troubles have been contained.

Sticky inflation

Analysts said that even a recession and a drop in inflation might not end inflation fears. The so-called “Three Ds” – demographics, decarbonisation, and deglobalisation – are fueling some investors’ view that a subsequent economic recovery will see a return of above-target inflation.

That is one of the reasons why some expect long-dated rates to have little to fall in this cycle, as more dovish action from central banks would result in a more significant inflation premium.

Market expectations about the ECB terminal rate stood at around 3.5%, with the September 2023 ECB euro short-term rate (ESTR) forward at 3.45%, implying an ECB deposit facility rate at 3.55% by summer.

The November 2023 forward peaked at around 4% before fears of a banking crisis hit markets in mid-March.

“Yesterday’s price action was another sign that lower inflationary pressures may not be enough to content the ECB,” said Antoine Gaveau, European rate strategist at Citi, who pointed to recent ECB officials’ comments “keeping the door to a 50bp hike in May open.”

Data on Tuesday showed euro zone producer prices fell more than expected, while consumers cut their inflation expectations.

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield rose 1 bp to 4.14%, with the spread between Italian and German 10-year yields–a gauge of confidence in the euro zone’s more indebted countries – at 186 bps.

(Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo, Editing by Conor Humphries)

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