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THE GIST
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May 15, 2024
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Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
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economy-ss-8
Inflation Update: Weak demand softens shocks
July 4, 2025 DOWNLOAD
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June 30, 2025 DOWNLOAD
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Archives: Reuters Articles

Bank fears ease but yields curb investors’ enthusiasm

Bank fears ease but yields curb investors’ enthusiasm

March 29 (Reuters) – An interest rate decision in Thailand and Australian inflation top a light Asian calendar on Wednesday, with broader risk appetite likely to be tempered by a further rebound in US bond yields.

The two-year Treasury yield rose only a few basis points, but the fact that it increased at all following the previous day’s 21 bps surge is notable, and rate-sensitive tech stocks dragged Wall Street into the red.

It is very early days, but there is a growing sense of optimism that the banking shock is abating. Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chairman for supervision, and FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg told lawmakers on Wednesday that depositor funds in US banks are safe and sound.

But this relief is running up what looks like a renewed spike higher in bond yields and borrowing costs, which is dampening risk appetite.

One curiosity is the dollar, weakening again on Tuesday despite the rise in US bond yields. Indeed it mostly struggled to catch a safe-haven bid when the banking stresses were most acute and is now struggling even when US yields are rising.

Asia’s equity spotlight on Wednesday will shine on China’s Alibaba Group 9988.HK after the conglomerate founded by Jack Ma said on Tuesday it plans to split its business into six main units covering e-commerce, media, and the cloud.

The news – a surprising and major revamp as China looks to ease regulatory crackdowns and support private enterprises – sent US-listed shares up 14% on Tuesday, recovering some of the nearly 70% lost since curbs were imposed in late 2020.

On the Asian policy front on Wednesday, the Bank of Thailand is set to implement its fifth consecutive quarter-point rate hike in an attempt to get inflation back within target.

Eighteen of 22 economists polled by Reuters expect the BOT to raise its benchmark one-day repurchase rate to 1.75%.

Inflation has fallen to a 13-month low of 3.79%, but that is still above the BOT’s target range of 1% to 3% and policymakers have signaled that the tightening cycle is not yet over.

Australian inflation figures for February and a raft of data from Vietnam – Q1 GDP and March inflation, trade, and industrial production – will also be released.

Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– Thailand interest rate decision (expects +25 bps)

– Australia inflation (February)

– US pending home sales (February)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

 

Wall Street ends down with tech; investors assess bank comments

Wall Street ends down with tech; investors assess bank comments

March 28 (Reuters) – US stocks ended slightly lower on Tuesday as investors weighed comments from a top US regulator on struggling banks and sold shares of technology-related names after their recent strong run.

Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve’s top banking regulator, told a Senate panel that Silicon Valley Bank did a “terrible” job of managing risk before its collapse.

Shares of Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) along with other technology-related shares ended down and were among the biggest drags on the S&P 500.

“It’s a little bit of a follow-through from yesterday’s pullback in tech stocks. You’re seeing a little bit of profit-taking,” said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles. “Some of the enthusiasm is waning a little bit.”

The S&P 500 technology index was down 0.5% on Tuesday, extending this week’s declines, but remains up sharply for the quarter.

The KBW regional banking index was down 0.2% on the day. Shares of First Citizens BancShares Inc (FCNCA) were up slightly, a day after the stock rose more than 50% after it said it would acquire the deposits and loans of Silicon Valley Bank.

Bank stocks have sold off sharply in the wake of problems at Silicon Valley and other banks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 37.83 points, or 0.12%, to 32,394.25, the S&P 500 lost 6.26 points, or 0.16%, to 3,971.27 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 52.76 points, or 0.45%, to 11,716.08.

“The prospect of stricter regulations for banks with deposits above USD 100 billion is raising the anxiety level for those that are perceived currently to be struggling,” James said.

Treasury yields edged higher, also weighing on tech-focused shares. Yields have climbed from six-months lows hit Friday.

Early in the day, a survey showed US consumer confidence unexpectedly increased in March, but also that Americans are becoming a bit anxious about the labor market.

With the quarter end approaching, investors are looking forward to upcoming bank results, which may give them more details about the health of the sector following the collapse of Silicon Valley and Signature Bank.

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) jumped 14.3% after the company said it plans to split its business into six main units covering e-commerce, media and the cloud.

After the closing bell, shares of Micron Technology Inc (MU) were up about 1%. It forecast third-quarter revenue in line with Wall Street expectations. Micron closed down 0.9% in the regular session.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.43-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.28-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 6 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 40 new highs and 153 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 9.66 billion shares, compared with the 12.75 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; additional reporting by Shubham Batra, Amruta Khandekar, Sruthi Shankar and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D’Souza, Vinay Dwivedi, and Aurora Ellis)

 

Gold rises on dollar dip, banking optimism limits gains

Gold rises on dollar dip, banking optimism limits gains

March 28 (Reuters) – Gold prices rose on Tuesday, drawing support from a weaker US dollar even as higher bond yields and easing worries about a full-blown banking crisis limited gains for the safe-haven asset.

Following two sessions of declines, spot gold gained 0.7% to USD 1,970.88 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. EDT (1740 GMT). US gold futures settled 1% higher at USD 1,973.50.

The US dollar index retreated about 0.4%, making the greenback-denominated precious metal less expensive for holders of other currencies.

“The weaker US dollar index today is adding to some buying interest in the gold market. However, solid buying interest is being squelched by the fact that the banking crisis, at least for the moment, seems to have stabilized,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

In the first congressional hearing into the sudden collapse of two US regional lenders and the ensuing chaos in markets, a top US regulator criticized Silicon Valley Bank over its risk management, as lawmakers demanded to know why warning signs of trouble were missed.

“The marketplace is still tentative in that regard, and that’s going to keep risk appetite contained for at least the next couple weeks until we think we’ve moved past this crisis,” added Wyckoff.

Wall Street struggled for direction as investors weighed receding concerns about a banking crisis, while Treasury yields rose amid focus on Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.

In the near term, gold prices could slip to USD 1,933, but the outlook for gold remains bullish with fast approaching peak in US rates and a danger of hitting a recession in coming months, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Spot silver rose 0.6% to USD 23.23 per ounce, platinum shed 0.7% to USD 965.19, while palladium was up 1% at USD 1,422.61.

(Reporting by Deep Vakil in Bengaluru; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Shilpi Majumdar)

 

For battered US bank shares, earnings may make or break

For battered US bank shares, earnings may make or break

NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters) – Further relief from the US bank stocks rout may have to wait until banks report quarterly results starting next month, which strategists said could give more details about the sector’s overall health after the recent collapse of some big regional players.

Bank shares rebounded Monday after First Citizens BancShares Inc (FCNCA) said it would acquire the deposits and loans of Silicon Valley Bank, whose meltdown sparked the selloff in the sector earlier this month.

Even so, the S&P 500 bank index is down 16% since March 8, two days before Silicon Valley’s collapse, with the failure of Signature Bank and problems at other banks adding to the turmoil.

The bank index is on track for its biggest monthly percentage drop since the start of the pandemic in 2020, and its price-to-earnings ratio is now at 8.9 compared with 10.61 on March 8, well below its five-year average of 12.12, according to Refinitiv data.

Some say quarterly results could be key to what happens next with bank shares.

“Not until you see the numbers and hear management talk about the balance sheet and their business and what the rest of the year looks like is there potential for things to calm down,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.

“That could stabilize the industry,” or have the opposite effect, depending on what bank executives say, he said.

Results from the big US banks kick off mid-April when JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) and others are due to report.

Among other financials, Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is expected to report quarterly results after the closing bell Tuesday.

Management teams will be busy preparing balance sheets “to look as good as they can” ahead of the reports, Tuz said.

The bank failures come as S&P 500 companies are headed for their second straight decline in year-over-year quarterly earnings, which would mark the first profit recession for US companies since COVID-19 hit corporate results in 2020.

Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall 4.6% in the first quarter of 2023 from the year-ago period. Earnings declined an estimated 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022, based on Refinitiv data as of Friday.

They are forecasting S&P 500 financials to post year-over-year earnings growth in the first quarter of 5.4%, making it among just four sectors whose earnings are expected to climb.

To be sure, concern about the banks has echoed worries about global finances after the US housing market cratered and stoked the global financial crisis in 2007 to 2009.

“It may not be the case where banks report in April and if everything looks fine, then we all go about our merry way,” said Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research in Sarasota, Florida. “The market’s too dynamic and money moves too quickly.”

Still, John Carey, portfolio manager at Amundi US in Boston, said credit quality now “is generally better than it was back in the ’07-09 period.”

With earnings, “we’ll have some concrete results to go by,” he said. “Confidence could come back into the market. Some of the companies may be relatively well positioned versus their peers.”

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; additional reporting by Sinead Carew and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York; Editing by Alden Bentley and Leslie Adler)

 

Indian mutual funds see debt inflows before tax tweak kicks in – fund managers

MUMBAI, March 28 (Reuters) – Indian mutual funds are seeing a spurt in inflows into debt-oriented schemes ahead of a change in the country’s taxation process effective April 1, several fund managers said on Tuesday.

The country will tax investments in debt mutual funds as short-term capital gains, according to recent amendments to the finance bill – a move that is feared could take away some benefits that have so far made these investments popular.

“We saw inflows coming in on Monday, and more are expected in the next couple of days in target maturity funds, short-term funds as well as corporate bond funds, some inflows are also seen in government bond funds,” said Murthy Nagarajan, head of fixed income investments at Tata Asset Management.

Investments made before March 31 would be taxed as per the current rules, leading to the rush.

At least two mutual fund managers have estimated inflows of around 50 billion rupees (USD 608.35 million) in the system after government’s decision to take away long term tax benefits for debt mutual funds.

This is in stark contrast to outflows from debt schemes that typically take place in March.

“The broader industry is seeing some inflows after the tax announcement, and mutual funds could be seen buying slightly longer duration papers,” said Pankaj Pathak, fixed income fund manager at Quantum Asset Management.
The change could spur growth in bank deposits and lead to lower inflows in some debt mutual funds schemes, according to fund managers.

Fund managers are recommending that retail investors, individuals with high net worth, and corporates invest in debt schemes ahead of the tax change kicking in, market participants said requesting anonymity, as they are not authorised to speak to media.

Money is getting invested in corporate bonds with a tenure of three years or more, as well as government bonds, Tata Asset Management’s Nagarajan added.

Fund managers have said that once the measure is effective, demand for corporate bonds especially with above three-year maturity may weaken. However, not everyone agrees.

“Overall, I do not see this as a big dampener for the entire debt category. Mutual funds provide liquidity, which is not available otherwise,” said Devang Shah, co-head, fixed income at Axis Mutual Fund.

“If someone wants to have benefits of capital gains, mutual funds will continue to be one of the preferred choice.”

(Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee)

Stocks bounce as banking fears ease, Hungary rate decision eyed

March 28 (Reuters) – Emerging market stocks rose for the first time in three sessions on Tuesday as worries over an imminent global banking crisis eased, while Hungary’s forint strengthened against the euro ahead of a key central bank decision.

The MSCI’s index for EM equities rose 0.6% after two-straight days of declines, with Hong Kong stocks rising 1%. South African stocks rose 1.3%, while Budapest shares gained 0.9%.

Investors took comfort from a deal for First Citizens BancShares to buy Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) assets. The deal, which was backed by US authorities, soothed worries about the banking sector following the largest bank collapse since the 2008 financial crisis and turmoil in the European banking sector.

“Risk sentiment recovered yesterday as markets appeared calmer about the health of European lenders which had generated a sell-off on Friday,” said ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky.

The MSCI’s index is set for a quarterly gain of 1.3%, which will mark its second-straight quarterly rise.

However, the overarching theme of rising interest rates, fears over growth and the banking sector have dulled the broader upbeat picture for developing economy assets that saw them come into favour in the final months of last year and the start of 2023.

The dollar eased on the day, giving way for EM currencies to gain. South Africa’s rand added 0.6%, while the Russian rouble firmed 0.2%. Mexico’s peso was also marginally higher.

Market participants also awaited a decision from the National Bank of Hungary (NBH), which is widely expected to keep its base rate steady at 13%. Analysts have also pared back rate cut views by the end of 2023 amid high inflation and the banking sector problems.

The forint firmed 0.2% at around 384 against the euro, with data showing Hungary’s gross average wages grew 16.1% year-on-year in January, the 13th-straight month of double-digit growth, although the rise trailed sky-high inflation.

“We expect rates to remain unchanged, in line with market surveys, and a hawkish tone… the forint’s return to the 400 EUR/HUF level again will not allow the NBH any hints of dovish signals,” Taborsky said.

Later in the week, the Bank of Mexico is expected to moderate the pace of its monetary tightening, and hike the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday as inflation has shown signs of cooling.

Brazil’s central bank is still expected to cut interest rates in November despite its hawkish policy statement indicating no room for monetary easing amid rising inflation expectations, a bank survey showed on Monday.

(Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Sharon Singleton)

Hong Kong shares rise as banking contagion fears ease; China stocks fall

Updates to market close

SHANGHAI, March 28 (Reuters) – Hong Kong stocks rose on Tuesday, as investor fears of deeper banking stress were eased after failed Silicon Valley Bank secured a buyer. Chinese shares, however, were dragged lower by information technology companies.

** Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index .HSI climbed 1.1%, and the China Enterprises Index .HSCE added 1.2%.

** China’s blue-chip CSI300 Index .CSI300 closed down 0.3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC lost 0.2%.

** Regional U.S. lender First Citizens BancShares FCNCA.O scooped up the assets of failed peer Silicon Valley Bank on Monday, allaying investor fears of deeper banking sector stress and prompting a rally in bank shares, while global stocks also rose.

** Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s top regulatory official plans to tell Congress that regulators are committed to ensuring all U.S. bank deposits are safe.

** Financial shares traded in Hong Kong .HSNF rose 1.4%, with HSBC Holdings 0005.HK and AIA Group 1299.HK up 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively.

** Hong Kong tech stocks .HSTECH climbed 0.9%, with Tencent 0700.HK up 4.2%.

** China’s cyberspace regulator vowed on Tuesday to clamp down on malicious online comments that damage the reputation of businesses and entrepreneurs, amid an official drive to shore up the private sector and spur economic growth.

** China’s Premier Li Qiang told foreign business executives that the country will open up further.

** “Chinese leaders are attempting to shore up foreign investors’ confidence in China after the years of the closed-door policy during the pandemic and the trend of de-globalization,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank.

** Premier Li also said China will maintain a certain level of economic expansion as it accelerates a transition towards higher quality growth, Chinese state media reported.

** Shares in computer .CSI930651, communications equipment .CSI931160 and media .CSI399971 slumped between 1.6% and 3%, after each of them jumped more than 30% this year amid a frenzy fuelled by the revolutionary computing technology ChatGPT.

** RongSheng Petrochemical Co Ltd 002493.SZ rose 10% after Saudi Aramco signed agreements to acquire 10% of the Chinese refining giant. CSI Energy Index .CSIEN was up 0.6%.

(Reporting by Shanghai Newsroom; Editing by Sonia Cheema and Eileen Soreng)

((li.gu@tr.com))

Oil prices rise on Kurdish supply risks and banking relief

Oil prices rise on Kurdish supply risks and banking relief

NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters) – Crude oil prices edged up on Tuesday, extending sharp gains from the previous session on supply disruption risks from Iraqi Kurdistan and hopes that banking sector turmoil is contained.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 78.65 a barrel, up 53 cents, or 0.7%. West Texas Intermediate US crude settled at USD 73.20 a barrel, gaining 39 cents, or 0.5%.

On Monday, prices rallied more than USD 3 after Iraq was forced to halt exports of about 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) from its northern Kurdistan region through Turkey after an arbitration decision confirmed Baghdad’s consent was needed to ship the oil.

“The loss of this northern Iraq oil is a problem for the market, and I think it’s being underestimated,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital in New York.

Barclays said any protracted outage of Kurdish exports until the end of the year would imply a USD 3 a barrel upside to the bank’s USD 92 a barrel Brent price forecast for 2023.

Monday’s announcement that First Citizens BancShares Inc (FCNCA) will acquire deposits and loans of failed Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) fed hopes for the sector and sent European bank shares higher.

“Concerns over banking issues have subsided for now in temporarily relieving expectations for a recession,” said Jim Ritterbusch of consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates.

A weaker US dollar, which makes oil less expensive for international buyers, also lifted crude prices, Ritterbusch added.

Oil prices were expected to draw continued support from signs of recovering demand in China.

China’s crude oil imports are expected to rise by 6.2% in 2023 to 540 million tonnes, an annual forecast by a research unit of China National Petroleum Corp showed on Monday.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on Tuesday said Russia needed to focus on boosting energy exports to so-called friendly countries and noted that Russian oil supply to India registered a 22-fold jump last year.

US crude oil stockpiles were seen rising by about 200,000 barrels last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday, but analysts said products like gasoline could fall.

US crude oil stocks fell by about 6.1 million barrels in the week ended March 24, while gasoline stocks fell by about 5.9 million barrels and distillate stocks rose by about 550,000 barrels, according to market sources  citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

The US Energy Information Administration at 10:30 a.m. (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.

Pressuring oil prices were French industrial strikes that resulted in the country’s refineries being debilitated to some extent, hindering fuel deliveries throughout the country and depressing European crude prices as market players looked to sell.

(Reporting by Laila Kearney in New York; Additional reporting by Laura Sanicola, Ahmad Ghaddar, Sudarshan Varadhan and Mohi Narayan; Editing by David Gregorio and Matthew Lewis)

 

US bank deal allays systemic fears

US bank deal allays systemic fears

March 28 (Reuters) – Asian markets could rebound on Tuesday from their sluggish start to the week, after a deal to buy the assets of stricken US bank Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) prompted a relief rally in financials and allayed fears of deeper systemic stress.

Regional US lender First Citizens BancShares said it will take on SVB’s assets of USD 110 billion, deposits of USD 56 billion and loans of USD 72 billion, and investors liked what they heard.

The S&P 500 banking index jumped 3% – First Citizen shares leapt 54% – the MSCI global financials index rose 1.2% and euro zone banks rose 1.7%.

Systemic banking crisis fears were further allayed by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, who plans to tell lawmakers on Tuesday that regulators are committed to ensuring all US bank deposits are safe, according to prepared remarks.

Brent crude’s rise of over 4% was another indication that investors may be recovering their mojo in the final week of a torrid quarter. All good news, right?

Yes, but there are reasons for caution, and not just because banking crises are rarely resolved in days or weeks.

The surge of more than 20 basis points in the two-year US Treasury yield was down due to a poorly received auction as much as due to confidence that banks have turned a corner. The notes sold at a high yield of more than two basis points above where they had traded before the auction, and demand was the weakest since November 2021.

Treasury’s sale of USD 43 billion five-year notes on Tuesday and USD 35 billion of seven-year notes on Wednesday will be worth monitoring.

And crypto shares fell after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it had sued crypto exchange Binance and its CEO and founder Changpeng Zhao for operating an “illegal” exchange and a “sham” compliance program.

Bitcoin fell 3.5%, the third time in a week it has lost 3% or more in a single day.

There are no central bank policy decisions on Tuesday, but investors can expect a slew of headlines from central bank officials around the world to hit their screens.

In Asia, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda gives a speech, and finance ministers and central bank governors of the ASEAN nations attend a three-day summit in Bali. European Central Bank and Bank of England chiefs Christine Lagarde and Andrew Bailey head a raft of European policymaker events.

And the Fed’s Barr delivers his “Bank Oversight” testimony to lawmakers.

Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

– Australia retail sales (February)

– ASEAN finance chiefs summit

– Fed’s Barr speaks on banking sector oversight

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

 

S&P 500 ends up slightly; SVB deal lifts bank shares

S&P 500 ends up slightly; SVB deal lifts bank shares

NEW YORK, March 27 (Reuters) – The S&P 500 ended slightly higher on Monday as a deal for Silicon Valley Bank’s assets helped to boost bank shares, while a decline in technology-related stocks limited the day’s gains.

The S&P 500 banks index rose 3.1%, while the KBW regional banking index ended up 0.6%.

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) shares climbed 2.9% and Bank of America (BAC) added 5%. They were among stocks giving the S&P 500 its biggest boost on Monday.

Shares of First Citizens BancShares Inc (FCNCA) shot up more than 50% after it said it would acquire the deposits and loans of Silicon Valley Bank, which failed earlier this month in the largest bank collapse since the 2008 financial crisis.

Also, shares of First Republic Bank (FRC) were up 11.8% after Bloomberg reported US authorities were considering more support for banks, which could give the struggling First Republic more time to shore up its balance sheet.

Tech-related growth shares were lower, however, and the Nasdaq ended down on the day.

“There’s still a lot going on in the financial sector, and it’s actually good news today,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York.

But tech and growth stocks have “had a very strong quarter, so there may be some profit-taking as we head into the end of the quarter.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 194.55 points, or 0.6%, to 32,432.08, the S&P 500 gained 6.54 points, or 0.16%, to 3,977.53 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 55.12 points, or 0.47%, to 11,768.84.

Shares of Apple AAPL.O were down 1.2%. The S&P 500 technology index is up more than 16% for the quarter so far.

Crypto shares were also down Monday after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said crypto exchange Binance and its CEO and founder Changpeng Zhao have been sued by the CFTC for operating an “illegal” exchange and a “sham” compliance program.

Among other stock gainers, Walt Disney (DIS) shares ended up 1.6% after the company began 7,000 in layoffs announced earlier this year.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.57-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.44-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 6 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 56 new highs and 128 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 10.32 billion shares, compared with the 12.9 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch in New York and additional reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Aurora Ellis)

 

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