Oil prices fall with expected low demand, upcoming supply boost

HOUSTON – Oil prices fell on Friday as traders looked toward weaker demand in the US, the world’s largest oil market, and a boost in supply this autumn from OPEC and its allies.

Brent crude futures for October delivery, which expired on Friday, settled at USD 68.12 a barrel, down 50 cents, or 0.73%. The more active contract for November finished down 53 cents, or 0.78%, at USD 67.45.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at USD 64.01, down 59 cents, or 0.91%.

The market was in part shifting its focus toward next week’s OPEC+ meeting, said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates.

Crude output has increased from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, as the group has accelerated output hikes to regain market share, raising the supply outlook and weighing on global oil prices.

“Overall, the bottom line is we’re going to see a jump in supply feeding into a lackluster demand market,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

The US summer driving season ends on Monday’s Labor Day holiday, signalling the end of the highest demand period in the United States, which is the largest fuel market.

“The market is beginning to wonder what effect the tariffs might have on the economic outlook next year,” Lipow said, referring to tariffs imposed by the administration of President Donald Trump on US imports from many trading partners.

Crude supply increases have not made their way into the US market yet, raising the possibility supply and demand will be in a tighter balance, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group.

“The pessimism about demand, I’m just not seeing it,” Flynn said. “Supply from OPEC is supposed to increase, but we’re not seeing it in the US I think things are going to stay tight.”

Prices rose earlier in the week due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil export terminals, but reports of talks between Ukraine’s European allies about a possible ceasefire helped tamp down prices, Flynn said.

US crude inventories for the week ending August 22 showed higher-than-expected draws, implying late-summer demand was still firm, particularly in industrial and freight-related sectors, analyst Ole Hvalbye at SEB bank said in a note.

Investors are also watching for India’s response to pressure from the United States to stop buying Russian oil, after Trump doubled tariffs on imports from India to as much as 50% on Wednesday.

So far, India has defied the US and Russian oil exports to India are set to rise in September, traders said.

“The prevalent view is that Russian sanctions are not forthcoming, and India will ignore US sanction threats and continue buying Russian crude oil at heavily discounted prices,” PVM’s Varga said.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Seher Dareen in London, Yuka Obayashi, and Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Jan Harvey, Nia Williams, and Diane Craft)

US markets present a double concentration risk

NEW YORK – The world’s most important market is worryingly unbalanced. Last week, shares of technology companies that feature in the S&P 500 Index fell a collective 1.6%. That might seem a small tremor, if not for the fact that the seven largest of them account for roughly a third of the broader benchmark’s value. With mom-and-pop investors and sophisticated creditors increasingly exposed, the fortunes of the many will fall ever more on the shoulders of the few.

As of mid-August, the so-called Magnificent Seven—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Tesla — made up about 34% of the S&P 500’s value, a new record. Add Broadcom, Berkshire Hathaway, and JPMorgan Chase, and that figure nears 40%. During the heady dot-com era, the largest 10 companies claimed a peak share of only 23%. The standard, blue-chip index for gaining exposure to broad US corporate strength is becoming a concentrated bet on artificial intelligence.

Meanwhile, household wealth is more tied to this top-heavy market than ever. Equities represent about 43% of Americans’ assets, the largest share on record, according to Federal Reserve data. Retail investors now account for roughly 18% of equity trading volume, nearly double the level a decade ago, according to JPMorgan Chase. Most of these flows funnel into index funds, among which S&P 500 trackers are the most popular.

Derivatives magnify those ties. Average daily trading for S&P 500 index options is around 3.7 million contracts per day, according to exchange operator CBOE Global Markets. Since each contract represents 100-times the index level, the total daily notional value is about USD 2.4 trillion, well above the value of individual company stocks traded. This immense leverage amplifies market movements by creating larger swings in the underlying index from relatively small options moves.

Ordinary day-traders aren’t the only ones snared in Big Tech’s relentless rise. Credit investors are also tied to what happens on the West coast: Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta raised over USD 60 billion in investment-grade debt over the past year to fund AI projects, becoming the largest weights in corporate bond indices. These markets are just as responsive to bad news as their equity counterparts. Following Washington’s tariff announcements in April, the premium investors demanded to hold Big Tech debt over US government bonds rose alongside falling share prices. An AI slowdown could easily translate into substantial debt-market stress.

Of course, today’s titans are no dot-com pretenders. They are cash-rich and highly profitable, the very strengths that vaulted them into global portfolios and Americans’ savings in the first place. The risk is not that they collapse. It is that even minor setbacks now threaten enormous consequences.

CONTEXT NEWS

A sell-off in the stocks of large US technology companies has pressured the benchmark S&P 500 Index. For the week of August 17, index constituents in the technology sector fell 1.6%, even after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggesting potential rate cuts prompted a broader rally on August 22.

(Editing by Jonathan Guilford; Production by Maya Nandhini)

Dollar headed for monthly drop on rate cut wagers

SINGAPORE – The dollar wobbled on Friday, poised for a 2% drop in August against major currencies on rising odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next month while worries about the threats to the US central bank’s independence linger.

President Donald Trump’s campaign to exert more influence over monetary policy, including attempts to fire Lisa Cook, one of the Fed’s governors, has weighed on the dollar. Cook filed a lawsuit claiming Trump has no power to remove her from office.

The legal battle is the latest chapter in Trump’s attempts to reshape the central bank after repeatedly criticizing the Fed and its Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates.

Currency markets started Friday tentatively, with the euro little changed at USD 1.1675, on course for a 2% gain in August. Sterling last bought USD 1.3509, and the Japanese yen fetched 146.97 per dollar.

The Australian dollar was steady at USD 0.6533, set for a 1.6% gain in the month.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six major peers, was at 97.917, on course for a 2% decline in the month. The index is down nearly 10% this year as erratic US trade policies drove investors towards alternative assets.

“While President Trump may be able to lower the Fed Funds rate by influencing the makeup of the interest rate setting committee, longer-term interest rates may not respond in kind,” said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“If markets perceive the FOMC’s independence as compromised, inflation expectations could become unanchored, driving long term interest rates higher.”

Trump’s push to place hand-picked, dovish-leaning candidates on the central bank’s decision-making committee has pressured short-term yields lower, while the longer term yields have risen.

A politically influenced Fed that keeps interest rates lower than they otherwise might could result in higher inflation and reduce foreign demand for the debt due to credibility fears, while a worsening fiscal outlook is also expected to weigh on longer-dated bonds.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes was last at 57 basis points, after hitting their steepest level since April earlier in the week.

Still, market reaction to the battle between Trump and the Fed’s Cook has been relatively muted with slight dollar selling and curve steepening.

“The market is looking through the amplified theatre and noise with regard to the robust opinions circulating regarding the independence of the US Fed,” said George Boubouras, head of research at K2 Asset Management.

“The market is not complacent about these developments, it is simply being pragmatic.”

RATE CUT WAGERS

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he wants to start cutting rates next month and “fully expects” more rate cuts to follow to bring the Fed’s policy rate closer to a neutral setting.

Markets are currently pricing in an 86% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 63% a month earlier, CME FedWatch showed. Traders are wagering on over 100 basis points of easing by June next year.

Data on Thursday showed the US economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter, but tariffs on imports continued to cloud the picture.

Investors will parse through the PCE price index report, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, later on Friday. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation is estimated at 2.6%, after rising at the same rate in June.

While a reading of 3% or higher will raise eyebrows after the Fed’s dovish pivot, the key data remains next Friday’s labour market report ahead of the September FOMC meeting, said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.

(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

S&P 500, Dow score record high closes as Nvidia results buttress AI rally

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average notched record high closes on Thursday after Nvidia’s quarterly report fell short of investors’ high expectations but confirmed that spending related to artificial intelligence infrastructure remains strong.

Shares of Nvidia dipped 0.8% after Sino-US trade uncertainties prompted the leading AI chip designer to exclude potential China sales from its quarterly forecast late on Wednesday.

Investors viewed Nvidia’s report, including a 56% surge in quarterly revenue, as confirmation that demand related to AI technology remains strong, supporting a rally in AI-related stocks that has propelled Wall Street to record highs in recent years.

Other AI heavyweights gained, with Alphabet adding 2%, Amazon up 1% and chipmaker Broadcom rising almost 3%.

“Nvidia is such an outlier that to say it was a disappointing print is only against the bar of borderline impossible expectations,” said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategy analyst at Baird. “It’s clear that the primary structural driver of this market, which is AI, is not going anywhere or cooling down.”

The S&P 500 climbed 0.32% to end the session at 6,501.86 points, reaching a record high close for a second straight day.

The Nasdaq gained 0.53% to 21,705.16 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.16% to 45,636.90 points, exceeding its previous record high close on August 22.

Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose, led by communication services, up 0.94%, followed by a 0.68% gain in energy.

Nike slid 0.2% after the sports apparel seller said it was cutting less than 1% of its corporate workforce as it struggles to reclaim market share lost to rivals.

Reducing worries of a slowing economy, weekly jobless claims were lower than expected, while a separate report showed corporate profits rebounded in the second quarter.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates to shore up economic growth have contributed to Wall Street’s recent gains.

Investors on Friday will focus on Personal Consumption Expenditures data. Any signs of inflation increasing could temper broad expectations for easing at the Fed’s policy meeting in September.

Traders are pricing in more than an 80% chance of an interest rate cut next month, according to CME Group’s FedWatch.

On Thursday, Fed Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit challenging US President Donald Trump’s attempt to remove her from office earlier this week.

Data analytics company Snowflake surged 20% after raising its forecast for fiscal 2026 product revenue, citing AI demand.

HP Inc rose 4.6% after beating quarterly revenue estimates on growing demand for AI-powered personal computers.

Packaging food company Hormel Foods tumbled 13% after issuing a downbeat quarterly profit forecast.

Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 by a 1.2-to-one ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 28 new highs and five new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 117 new highs and 52 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was relatively light, with 13.8 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 16.7 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

(Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Sanchayaita Roy in Bengaluru, and by Noel Randewich in San Francisco; Editing by Devika Syamnath and Richard Chang)

Yields mixed on profit taking, rate cut expectations stay high

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields were mixed on Thursday as some investors took profit from the recent rally in two-year notes, while other maturities, including benchmark 10-year note,s were stronger on the day.

The yield curve flattened, reversing a strong steepening trend this week that came as investors priced in more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Profit-taking and some month-end repositioning was seen as driving Thursday’s moves, rather than changing expectations on Fed policy.

Traders ramped up bets on more cuts after Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday adopted an unexpectedly dovish tone and said risks to the job market were rising.

Investors are also evaluating whether US President Donald Trump will be able to make more appointments to the Fed and then tilt it in a more dovish direction. Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for being too slow to cut rates.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook on Thursday filed a lawsuit saying Trump has no power to remove her from office. Trump earlier this week said he was firing Cook due to alleged “deceitful and potential criminal conduct” related to mortgages she took out in 2021.

“The big driver is the Fed story. Bond markets love rate cuts,” said Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research, Americas, at ING.

“The front end of the curve is absolutely expecting the funds rate to get cut by 150 basis points, which is the number that Scott Bessent has suggested is what the Fed should be doing,” Garvey added.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said this month that “rates are too constrictive … We should probably be 150 to 175 basis points lower,” which would take the fed funds rate near the 3% area that many analysts see as being the neutral rate.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 84% odds of a cut at the Fed’s September 16-17 meeting. In total, they see 138 basis points of cuts by the end of 2026.

The two-year note yield was last up 1.6 basis points at 3.639% after falling to 3.611% on Wednesday, the lowest since May 1. The benchmark 10-year note fell 2.7 basis points to 4.211% and reached 4.203%, the lowest since August 5.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes was last at 57 basis points, after reaching 63.5 basis points on Wednesday, which was the steepest level since April 22.

Longer-dated debt has not kept up with the rally in shorter-dated notes this week due to concerns about the potential impacts of looser Fed policy.

A politically influenced Fed that keeps interest rates lower than they otherwise might could result in higher inflation and reduce foreign demand for the debt due to credibility fears.

A worsening fiscal outlook is also expected to continue to weigh on longer-dated debt.

Data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell last week.

A separate report showed that GDP increased at a 3.3% annualized rate last quarter, after the economy was initially reported to have grown at a 3.0% pace in the second quarter.

This week’s main economic release will be Personal Consumption Expenditures on Friday. The US bond market will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

The Treasury Department sold USD 44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday to good demand, the final sale of USD 183 billion in short- and intermediate-dated supply this week.

The debt sold at a high yield of 3.925%, less than half a basis point above where it had traded before the auction. Demand was below average at 2.49 times the amount of debt on offer, though indirect bidders took a larger than normal share at 77.4% of the sale.

The US government saw decent demand for a USD 70-billion sale of five-year notes on Wednesday and strong demand for a USD 69-billion sale of two-year notes on Tuesday.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Rod Nickel and Diane Craft)

Dollar trades lower as Trump’s move to fire Fed governor spooks investors

NEW YORK – The dollar fell against major currencies on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s unprecedented move to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook renewed concerns over the central bank’s independence.

The euro rose 0.22% against the dollar to USD 1.1647 while sterling was last up 0.2% at USD 1.3481. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar fell 0.27% to 147.36 yen, and it slipped 0.28% against the Swiss franc to 0.8032.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was down 0.28% at 98.19.

Trump said he was removing Cook over alleged improprieties in obtaining mortgage loans, a step that could test the boundaries of presidential power over the Fed. In response, Cook said Trump has no authority to fire her from the central bank, and she will not resign.

Trump’s announcement surprised markets, but the reaction was relatively muted, with investors caught between concerns over the politicization of policy and the move’s potential payoffs for markets.

“(I)nvestor movement remained relatively muted as attention stayed focused on the repercussions of Jackson Hole and overnight news highlighting an elevated threat to Fed Governor Cook and, more broadly, to Fed independence,” said Uto Shinohara, senior investment strategist at Mesirow Currency Management.

The unpredictable actions of the Trump administration and the prospect of a more dovish Fed have kept the dollar in check, he added.

The market was also little changed after data showed US-manufactured capital goods rose more than expected last month, while consumer confidence slipped slightly in August.

The US president has repeatedly berated Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, although he has stopped issuing threats to fire him ahead of the end of his term in a little under nine months.

Traders are currently pricing in an 85% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Morgan Stanley on Tuesday became the latest brokerage to forecast a cut in interest rates in September, joining global peers after Powell hinted at policy-easing next month in a speech last week.

“Monetary easing expectations are holding firm across the front end of the curve after the Conference Board’s latest measure of consumer confidence showed households becoming more concerned about employment and income prospects even as they turned slightly more optimistic on the business environment,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.

“With the Fed’s reaction function shifting away from inflation and toward an emphasis on labor market conditions, these numbers should help ratify market pricing for at least two rate cuts this year, and add to the factors weighing on the dollar.”

While investors may be inclined to sell the dollar, lingering economic and fiscal worries in Europe also narrow the available currencies for bets on a decline in the US currency, said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate FX and rates research at Societe Generale.

France’s government bonds fell on Tuesday as the country’s minority government looked increasingly likely to be ousted next month.

The 10-year government bond yield rose to a peak of 3.53%, its highest since March and adding to Monday’s 7 basis point climb. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Worries over renewed political instability in France added to jitters in global bond markets about the independence of the US Federal Reserve, which contributed to selling in government bonds from the US, Britain and Japan.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose 1.03% to USD 110,796.68, attempting to break a three-day losing streak, while ether climbed 4.37% to USD 4,548.71.

(Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra and Laura Matthews; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Chizu Nomiyama, Ros Russell, and Edmund Klamann)

Oil falls 2% from nearly three-week high; focus on tariffs, Russian supply

NEW YORK – Oil prices fell 2% on Tuesday, erasing gains from the previous session, as investors watched developments around US tariffs, the war in Ukraine, and the potential disruption of Russian fuel supplies.

Brent crude was down USD 1.58, or 2.3%, at USD 67.22 a barrel, a day after hitting its highest price since early August. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost USD 1.55, or about 2.4%, to USD 63.25.

“Given the huge amount of uncertainties in the oil market caused by the Ukrainian conflict and the tariff war, investors will remain unwilling to commit themselves to either direction on a prolonged basis,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst with PVM Oil Associates.

Brent prices could be bound to a trading range of USD 65-USD 74 for the foreseeable future, he added.

Oil’s rally on Monday was primarily driven by supply risks after Ukraine strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and the possibility of further US sanctions on Russian oil.

Ukraine’s attacks in response to Russia’s advances in the conflict and its pounding of Ukrainian gas and power facilities have disrupted Moscow’s oil processing and exports and created gasoline shortages in some parts of Russia.

Russia has revised up its crude oil export plan from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day in August from the initial schedule after Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted refinery operations and freed up more crude for shipment, three people familiar with the matter said.

US President Donald Trump has renewed his threat to impose sanctions on Russia if there is no progress towards a peace deal in the next two weeks.

However, sources have told Reuters that US and Russian government officials discussed several energy deals on the sidelines of this month’s negotiations to seek peace in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Indian exports could face US duties of up to 50% – among the highest imposed by Washington.

“Front and center in this week’s trade is the possibility that US tariffs on India could be doubled to 50% as early as tomorrow … further restricting Russian export flows that are already being inhibited by recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries,” analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly in New York, Seher Dareen in London, Anjana Anil in Bengaluru, and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by David Gregorio, Paul Simao, and Nia Williams)

Yield curve steepens as Trump attempts to fire Fed’s Cook

NEW YORK – The US Treasury yield curve steepened on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook raised concerns about the US central bank’s independence and the prospect of a potentially more dovish composition of Fed policymakers.

Trump on Monday fired Cook over claims of mortgage borrowing impropriety. A lawyer for Cook on Tuesday said she will file a lawsuit to prevent the firing.

Shorter-dated yields fell more than longer-dated ones, causing the yield curve to steepen.

The expectations of a potentially more dovish Fed helped to send shorter-dated yields lower. But a politically influenced Fed that keeps interest rates lower than they otherwise might could increase concerns over rising inflation and reduce foreign demand for the debt on credibility fears. Those factors will weigh on longer-dated debt.

“It doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re going to have lower borrowing costs in the real economy,” said Zachary Griffiths, head of investment-grade and macro strategy at CreditSights in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We have several instances and examples of what could be extrapolated to be a longer-run trend of a steeper curve across Treasuries if Fed independence is in fact impacted.”

Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for being too slow to cut rates, and he is expected to replace Powell with a more dovish appointment when his term as Fed chair ends in May.

Powell could, however, stay on as a Fed governor, which would limit the number of appointments Trump can make to the central bank.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was last down 4.9 basis points on the day at 3.681%.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 1.7 basis points to 4.258%.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes was last at 58 basis points, and earlier reached 59.8 basis points, the steepest level since July 16.

Traders have been ramping up bets that the Fed will cut rates at its September 16-17 meeting, following more dovish commentary from Powell on Friday than was expected.

Any potential rate cut may depend on jobs and inflation data for August that is due before the September meeting.

Griffiths said the jobs market appears weaker than it was in September 2024, when the Fed cut rates by a larger-than-normal 50 basis points.

“When we think about the balance of risks and what we’ve learned about the labor market, I think the Fed can probably justify at least a couple of rate cuts from where we are today,” he said.

Traders are currently pricing in 85% odds of a September cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Data on Tuesday showed that new orders for key US-manufactured capital goods increased more than expected in July, suggesting business spending on equipment got off to a
strong start in the third quarter, but consumers’ deteriorating assessment of the labor market cast a pall over the economy.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said his forecast is for a modest adjustment in interest rates given that he expects little variation in economic activity over the remainder of the year.

The Treasury Department saw strong demand for a USD 69 billion sale of two-year notes on Tuesday, the first sale of USD 183 billion in short- and intermediate-dated supply this week.

The notes sold at a high yield of 3.641%, around one and a half basis points below where they had traded before the auction. Demand was 2.69 times the amount of debt on offer, the best ratio since December.

The government will also auction USD 70 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday and USD 44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Leslie Adler)

S&P 500 ends higher after Trump attacks Fed; Nvidia climbs

The S&P 500 ended higher on Tuesday, lifted by Nvidia and Eli Lilly, while US President Donald Trump’s decision to fire a central bank governor deepened concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Nvidia rose 1.1% ahead of its quarterly report late on Wednesday, which will show how the world’s most valuable company is faring in the crossfire of Washington and Beijing’s ongoing trade war. The chipmaker’s report could also fuel – or dampen – Wall Street’s rally in AI-related stocks.

Trump late on Monday said he was removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged improprieties in obtaining mortgage loans, adding to concerns about the central bank’s independence from politics. S&P 500 futures briefly sank before the stock market recovered as investors focused on unchanged expectations that the central bank will begin cutting interest rates in September.

“The financial market community is increasingly concerned about that independence. That is a real concern over the long run. But over the short run, how much does it change the trajectory of interest rate policy in the next six to 12 months? I think the writing has already been on the wall that we get easier monetary policy in the next six to 12 months,” said Bill Merz, head of Capital Market Research at US Bank Wealth Management, Minneapolis.

Despite lingering inflation pressures, traders have been pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut for the Fed’s September policy meeting, encouraged by dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, data pointing to labor market weakness and a shakeup at the central bank.

Morgan Stanley became the latest brokerage to forecast an interest-rate cut in September, but key upcoming inflation and jobs reports could prompt investors to reassess expectations.

Eli Lilly jumped almost 6% after the drugmaker said its experimental pill cuts body weight by 10.5% in diabetes patients.

The S&P 500 is trading at about 23 times expected earnings, a four-year high, heightening the risk of a selloff if Nvidia’s results dent Wall Street’s enthusiasm for AI-related stocks.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.41% to end the session at 6,465.94 points, just short of its August 14 record-high close.

The Nasdaq gained 0.44% to 21,544.27 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.30% to 45,418.07 points.

Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose, led by industrials, up 1.03%, followed by a 0.76% gain in financials.

Advanced Micro Devices gained 2% after Truist Securities upgraded the chip stock to “buy” from “hold.”

EchoStar surged 70% to a record high after telecom giant AT&T said it has agreed to buy certain wireless spectrum licenses from the satellite communications firm for about USD 23 billion.

Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones within the S&P 500 by a 1.1-to-one ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 21 new highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 120 new highs and 59 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was relatively light, with 15.7 billion shares traded, compared with an average of 16.9 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

(Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Sanchayaita Roy in Bengaluru, and by Noel Randewich in San Francisco; Editing by Devika Syamnath and Matthew Lewis)

Global equities retreat, as oil and dollar advance

NEW YORK/PARIS – Global equities fell on Thursday on investor jitters around the Federal Reserve’s three-day annual Jackson Hole symposium, as gold prices eased under pressure from a stronger US dollar.

The symposium started on Thursday, with traders awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday for hints about the likelihood of a September US rate cut.

“Jitters over what’s going to transpire tomorrow at Jackson Hole are certainly weighing on risk appetite a little bit with chair Powell’s speech,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.34% to 44,785.50, the S&P 500 lost 0.40% to 6,370.17 and the Nasdaq Composite retreated 0.34% to 21,100.31.

Big-box retailer Walmart’s quarterly results dampened sentiment.

Traders had ramped up bets for a September cut following a surprisingly weak payrolls report at the start of this month, and were further encouraged after consumer price data showed limited upward pressure from tariffs.

But they lowered their expectations slightly following the release of minutes from the Fed’s July meeting. By Thursday, markets were pricing in a 70.4% chance of a September rate cut, compared to 83% on Wednesday, according to LSEG data IRPR.

The pan-European STOXX 600 closed flat, and major bourses were mixed.

The European Union said it would strive to ensure lower US tariffs apply to its car exports retroactively, as the EU and US detailed commitments made in a deal reached last month.

Analysts attributed a pullback in tech stocks this week to concerns that AI investments were not delivering returns.

Euro zone business activity accelerated in August, PMI data showed, with Germany registering its fastest growth since March and France’s downturn easing.

Stocks had been near recent highs during Asian trading, and Australia’s benchmark hit a new record.

The 10-year US Treasury yield added 3.2 basis points to 4.328%.

The euro was down 0.4% at USD 1.1604.

US President Donald Trump intensified his effort to influence the Fed on Wednesday, calling on Governor Lisa Cook to resign on the basis of allegations made by one of his political allies about mortgages she holds in Michigan and Georgia. Cook said she had “no intention of being bullied to step down” from her position at the central bank.

Deutsche Bank analysts in a research note attributed a rise in gold overnight to renewed concerns about the Fed’s independence.

“The news was a reminder of the lingering concerns over future Fed independence and risks of fiscal dominance, though the extent of the market reaction was fairly modest,” Deutsche Bank said.

State Street Markets’ Tim Graf said that although central bank independence was considered “sacrosanct” by markets, it was not yet problematic.

“Markets quite rightly look through this, price maybe a little bit of risk premium for sure, but it’s not something that I think really upsets the apple cart too much,” he said.

Spot gold prices fell 0.25% to USD 3,338.51. US gold futures settled 0.2% lower at USD 3,386.50.

Elsewhere in commodities, Brent oil futures finished up 1.24% at USD 67.67 per barrel and US crude settled up 1.29% to USD 63.52.

(Reporting by Chris Prentice in New York and Elizabeth Howcroft in Paris; Additional reporting by Johann M Cherian; Editing by Sharon Singleton, Mark Potter, and Sonali Paul)

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