Oil on track for steepest weekly plunge in 3-1/2 months

Oil prices rose slightly on Friday after four straight sessions of declines but were on track for their steepest weekly decline since late June due to market expectations that the OPEC+ group could hike output further despite oversupply concerns.

Brent crude futures gained 18 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 64.29 a barrel by 0000 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed by 19 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 60.67 a barrel.

If prices do not further recover in this session, Brent could close at the lowest level since the week ended May 30, while WTI would finish at a level not seen since May 2.

On a weekly basis, Brent has plunged 8.3%, while WTI is 7.6% lower.

OPEC+ could agree to raise oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, triple the increase for October, as Saudi Arabia seeks to reclaim market share, sources told Reuters this week.

“If OPEC+ do go ahead and announce a 500,000 bpd increase this weekend, it’s likely a big enough increase to send crude oil lower again, initially to support at USD 58.00, before a test of this year’s lows USD 55.00 area,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

Potentially higher OPEC+ supply, slowing global crude refinery runs due to maintenance and a seasonal dip in demand in the months ahead are set to accelerate oil stock builds in the US and elsewhere, analysts say.

The Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that US crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week as refining activity and demand softened.

“Concerns that a US government shutdown will curtail economic activity and the resumption of Iraq’s Kurdish oil exports is also weighing on the crude price,” Sycamore said.

The Group of Seven nations’ finance ministers said on Wednesday they will take steps to increase pressure on Russia by targeting those who are continuing to boost purchases of Russian oil.

(Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Jamie Freed)

Dollar rebounds, uncertainty reigns as US government stays shut

The dollar gained against the euro and yen on Thursday, with the greenback rebounding against the Japanese currency after four consecutive days of losses, as traders weighed the impact of a US government shutdown.

The shutdown leaves a gap in government data, including the closely watched monthly jobs report for September that was due to be released on Friday.

Still, with Federal Reserve and private data continuing to be released, the void may not be as bad as feared, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

“That really misunderstands how the markets have evolved with private sector data,” Chandler said. “I don’t think that either the market nor the Fed is flying blind.”

A Chicago Fed report on Thursday, which combines private and available public data, estimated the September jobless rate was 4.3%, the same as in August and evidence that a feared rapid rise in unemployment had not yet begun.

But details of the report, along with other data, pointed to ongoing sluggishness in the labor market.

The dollar fell on Wednesday after the ADP National Employment report showed private payrolls decreased by 32,000 in September, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates two more times this year.

But the currency retraced that move on Thursday.

“A lot of people thought that with the government closing, the dollar would sell off. And I think that people got caught leaning the wrong way, and now are being forced out of positions,” Chandler said.

The dollar index was last up 0.13% on the day at 97.86. The euro fell 0.09% to USD 1.1719.

Traders see a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s October meeting as almost certain and are pricing in a 90% probability of an additional cut in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan on Thursday said the US central bank appropriately cut rates last month to guard against the risk of a sharp deterioration in the job market, but said that so far the cooling has been gradual and signaled she is not eager to cut rates further.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.08% to 147.17.

Traders are watching this weekend’s election to lead Japan’s ruling party for signs on how fiscal policy will influence the currency.

Sterling GBP= weakened 0.25% to USD 1.3443. Traders have started to assess the impact the UK November budget will have on the economy and sterling.

“In the UK there’s a focus on the fiscal situation,” said Eric Theoret, FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 2.24% to USD 120,218.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell, additional reporting by Joice Alves; Editing by Mark Potter, Gareth Jones, Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Deepa Babington)

Gold rallies to record high on US government shutdown and Fed rate cut bets

Gold prices surged to a record high on Wednesday, lifted by a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand after a US government shutdown, while softer jobs data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at USD 3,861.77 an ounce at 01:48 p.m. ET (1748 GMT) after touching a record peak of USD 3,895.09.

US gold futures for December delivery settled 0.6% higher at USD 3,897.5.

The dollar weakened against a basket of other leading currencies, making dollar-priced gold more affordable for overseas buyers.

“The dollar has been under pressure because, usually, when the government shuts down, the mood turns quite negative on the US,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir, adding that the dollar and US equity markets are among the casualties.

The soft ADP jobs report will not help the dollar, he said, noting how a slowing economy and lower interest rates are bullish for gold.

US private payrolls decreased by 32,000 jobs in September after a downwardly revised 3,000 decline in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 50,000 after a previously reported 54,000 advance in August.

The US government has shut down large parts of its operations, potentially putting thousands of federal jobs at risk, after partisan divisions prevented Congress and the White House from reaching a funding deal.

The shutdown could delay the release of economic indicators, including the closely watched non-farm payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday.

Non-yielding gold, viewed as a safe-haven asset in times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, thrives when interest rates are low.

Investors are pricing in a 99% chance of a rate cut this month, the CME FedWatch Tool shows.

“We are now seeing increased appetite from Western investors, both institutional and retail, as a case of ‘FOMO’ kicks in … Should this trend continue, we would not be surprised to see gold prices break above USD 4,000/oz,” SP Angel analysts said in a note.

Among other precious metals, spot silver gained 1.6% to a more-than-14-year high of USD 47.42 an ounce, platinum lost 1.6% to USD 1,549.17, and palladium was down 1.1% at USD 1,243.31.

(Reporting by Noel John and John Biju in Bengaluru; Editing by David Goodman and Sahal Muhammed)

Asia draws USD 100 billion in capital as investors diversify beyond US, Goldman executive says

SINGAPORE – Asia excluding China has attracted about USD 100 billion in capital inflows over the past nine months as global investors diversify beyond the United States, Kevin Sneader, Goldman Sachs’ GS.N president for Asia-Pacific ex-Japan, said on Wednesday.

Japan has been a key beneficiary of the trend, while China’s equity rally since late last year has been driven mainly by domestic investors and interest in the technology sector, with foreign funds now taking another look at China, he said.

“There is incremental flow in this part of the world,” Sneader said at the Milken Institute Asia Summit 2025 in Singapore. “I think it’s important to put it in the context of a diversification movement, not an exit movement.”

“I think we should be cautious and not get too excited because part of that money is what I call global hedge fund money, the faster money,” he said.

“The mutual funds, longer investors, that money’s still not flowing back into China. But they’re certainly taking a hard look at Asia,” he added.

Sneader said the technology, consumer discretionary and industrial sectors are attracting strong interest in Asia, with healthcare gaining traction in private markets.

The chief executive of Singapore state-owned investor Temasek, Dilhan Pillay, speaking at the same event, said that “globalization as we have known it is gone,” as geopolitics, tariffs and energy constraints have reshaped returns.

“Reconfiguration of supply chains to (prioritize) resilience over efficiency, there’s a cost for resilience,” he said.

Pillay added that artificial intelligence is “the most pervasive thing across the political, social, and economic spectrum.”

Temasek, which manages a S$ 434 billion (USD 340 billion) portfolio, reported an 11.6% rise in net portfolio value to a record high as of March 31, with the US continuing to be its largest destination for capital.

Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC’s Head of Funds and Co-investments, Asia, Private Equity Ankur Meattle said China is seeing more deal activity, including multinationals exploring capital options and succession driven sales, alongside innovation in sectors from biotech to electric vehicles.

“With the capital markets in a better place, one is likely to see some exits also. So there is a pipeline of exits building up that we should see in the next six months,” he said.

(Reporting by Yantoultra Ngui and Jun Yuan Yong; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus and Kim Coghill)

Oil falls as OPEC+ plans to further increase output

Sept 30 (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Tuesday as another anticipated production increase by OPEC+ and the resumption of oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region via Turkey reinforced the outlook for a looming supply surplus.

Brent crude futures for November delivery, expiring on Tuesday, fell 47 cents, or 0.69%, to USD 67.50 a barrel by 0012 GMT. The more active contract for December was down 43 cents, or 0.64%, at USD 66.66 per barrel.

US West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at USD 63.05 a barrel, down 40 cents, or 0.63%.

The drops extend Monday’s drop when both Brent and WTI settled more than 3% lower after logging their sharpest daily declines since August 1, 2025.

Oil’s falls came as Iraq’s Kurdistan region resumed crude oil exports over the weekend and amid reports that OPEC+ is likely to approve an increase in production for November at its meeting this weekend, IG analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note to clients.

In a meeting scheduled for Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, together known as OPEC+, will likely approve another oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day, three sources familiar with the talks said.

“Although (OPEC+ is) under their quota anyway, the market still does not seem to like the fact that more oil is coming in,” Marex analyst Ed Meir said.

Meanwhile, crude oil flowed on Saturday through a pipeline from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq to Turkey for the first time in 2-1/2 years, after an interim deal broke a deadlock, Iraq’s oil ministry said.

The market has remained cautious in recent weeks, balancing supply risks, mainly arising from Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian refineries, with concerns of oversupply and weak demand.

Elsewhere, US President Donald Trump won Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s support for a US-backed Gaza peace proposal, but Hamas’s stance remained uncertain.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

Gold hits record high on rate-cut bets, US government shutdown fears

Gold prices surged past USD 3,800 an ounce for the first time on Monday, setting a new record as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset on US rate cut expectations, fears of a potential government shutdown, and escalating geopolitical tensions.

Spot gold was up 1.9% at USD 3,829.63 per ounce by 2:00 p.m. ET (1800 GMT), after hitting a record high of USD 3,833.37 earlier in the session.

US gold futures for December delivery settled 1.2% higher at USD 3,855.2.

The US dollar index fell 0.2%, making greenback-priced bullion less expensive for overseas buyers.

“Safe-haven demand focused on the potential US government shutdown” is one of the driving factors behind gold’s rally, said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

“The dollar is under some light pressure in response to that, certainly supporting the precious metals complex.”

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with top congressional leaders from both parties later on Monday to negotiate an extension of government funding. Without a deal, a federal shutdown would begin on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Russia’s defence ministry said its forces had taken control of the village of Shandryholove in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

Gold, which tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments and during times of uncertainty, has climbed more than 43% so far this year.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index came in line with expectations on Friday, bolstering market confidence in potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve at its October and December meetings.

“The PCE data from last week was viewed as not standing in the way of an additional one or two Fed rate cuts … they continue to be a supportive factor for gold and silver,” Meger said.

Separately, Newmont said CEO Tom Palmer would retire by the year-end, after spending more than a decade with the world’s largest gold miner. Rival Barrick also announced the resignation of CEO Mark Bristow earlier in the day.

Elsewhere, spot silver climbed 1.9% to USD 46.85 per ounce, hitting a more than 14-year high. Platinum gained 1.5% to USD 1,592.65, a 12-year high, while Palladium fell 1.1% to USD 1,255.61.

(Reporting by Noel John and John Biju in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar and Sahal Muhammed)

Gold firms as inflation data keeps Fed rate cut bets alive

Gold gained on Friday after US inflation data came in line with expectations, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve may continue with interest rate cuts later this year.

Spot gold rose 0.8% to USD 3,778.62 per ounce as of 01:30 p.m. EDT (1730 GMT), after hitting a record USD 3,790.82 earlier in the week. The metal has risen about 2.5% this week.

US gold futures for December delivery settled 1% higher at USD 3,809

“Monthly PCE data is in line, though personal income and spending were a tenth above expectations. Nothing from this data will prevent the Fed from carrying on with another cautious rate cut at the October meeting,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

Data showed that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.7% year-on-year in August, in line with economists’ expectations in a Reuters poll.

Investors now see an 88% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% chance of another in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Markets will also watch remarks from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman later in the day for clues on the Fed’s stance.

Gold, a traditional safe haven, typically benefits from lower interest rates.

On the trade front, President Donald Trump announced a fresh round of tariffs on imported drugs, trucks and furniture, effective October 1.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 2.6% to USD 46.41 per ounce, hitting an over 14-year high, while palladium gained 2.8% to USD 1,284.77, putting it on track for a weekly gain.

Platinum rose 2.5% to USD 1,568.21, its highest in more than 12 years.

Analysts and traders note that silver and platinum are gaining momentum amid elevated gold prices, with investors turning to more affordable alternatives.

“Chinese President Xi’s pledge to cut net Chinese carbon emissions by 7-10% by 2035 has also spurred buying of silver which is used in solar cells,” Wong said.

He noted that sentiment was further supported by Freeport’s force majeure at the Grasberg copper mine.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas and Tasim Zahid)

Dollar set for second weekly gain amid US economic resilience

NEW YORK – The dollar fell but was still on course to notch a second straight week of gains against major peers on Friday after data continued to show US economic resilience, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cut interest rates.

The dollar was down 0.21% to 149.48 against the Japanese yen, on track for a fifth consecutive week of gains and trading near its highest level since August 1.

The euro was up 0.31% to USD 1.1701. It was on course to finish the week lower, snapping three straight weeks of gains.

US DATA TAKES STEAM OUT OF FED RATE CUT PRICING

US consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.6% in August, slightly higher than the 0.5% estimated by economists polled by Reuters.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose 0.3% last month, in line with expectations, US Commerce Department data showed.

“I think it’s pretty clear that stronger economic data has taken the steam out of the pricing for Fed rate cuts and that’s sort of narrowed the interest rate differential with other countries and pushed the dollar higher,” said John Velis, Americas FX and macro strategist at BNY in New York.

“We still think that hedging behavior is quite strong, so we still see lots of forward selling of dollars even while the US assets, particularly US equities, continue to gain influence from abroad, although that’s taken a little bit of a backseat this week as well to some degree. But I think it’s fairly clear that as Fed expectations go so will the dollar go in the short term,” Velis added.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.33% to 98.17. It was still on track for the second straight week of gains.

The two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, fell 1.8 basis points to 3.645%.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he sees limited risks of a big rise in either unemployment or inflation, letting the Fed balance its two goals as it debates further interest rate cuts.

Fed Vice-chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the central bank is close to achieving its 2% inflation target and that she believes decisive interest rate cuts are needed to ward off rising trouble in the job market.

Barkin and Bowman are the latest Fed officials to comment on the Fed’s decision last week to start cutting rates.

Traders are pricing in an 89.8% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting, down from nearly 92% probability a week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

“USD solidly back in range but less risk of disorderly unwind of shorts, based on positioning,” Bank of America analysts wrote in an investor note. “Pivotal jobs report ahead. Few near-term narratives to support the rest of G10.”

Data showed on Thursday that the US gross domestic product rose by an upwardly revised 3.8% from April through June, beating expectations.

The dollar was down 0.23% to 0.798 against the Swiss franc. It was still on track to finish the week higher, ending a run of six consecutive weeks of losses.

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh; Editing by Mark Potter and Marguerita Choy)

Investors look to jobs data to support rate-cut path, pricey stock market

NEW YORK – Next week’s US jobs data may need to tread a fine line for Wall Street, revealing a cooling labor market that supports further interest rate cuts without fueling fears about a recession.

While stocks have edged lower this week, US equity indexes remain near record highs after a relentless rally that has put the benchmark S&P 500 on pace for its best third-quarter performance since 2020.

Some investors say the market’s ascent is making stocks vulnerable to any disappointments. Complicating the release of the jobs data is the potential for a US government shutdown next week that, should it come to pass, could mean the employment report is not released as scheduled next Friday.

The jobs data will help show whether the labor market is “simply experiencing a soft patch,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

“Nobody is expecting to see a blockbuster number here,” Luschini said. “At the same time, were it to come in negative, it would confirm suspicions that perhaps the labor market is deteriorating rather rapidly, which obviously begs the question, could we actually be at the throes of a potential recession?”

The report is expected to show non-farm payrolls rose by 39,000 in September, according to a Reuters poll of economists, after an increase of 22,000 the prior month. The unemployment rate is estimated to be 4.3%.

The Federal Reserve this month cut interest rates for the first time this year after signs of struggle in the labor market. The central bank is expected to enact another standard quarter-percentage point rate reduction at its next meeting at the end of October and perhaps one more at its last meeting of the year in December.

Expectations of such monetary easing, including more cuts in 2026, have helped drive the latest leg of a rally in which the S&P 500 has posted 25 record closing highs over the past three months.

With inflation still elevated, however, investors are wary that a strong employment report could lead the Fed to slow down its pace of cuts. The Fed raised rates from March 2022 to July 2023 to get inflation under control.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week said near-term inflation risks were “tilted to the upside” as he noted a “challenging situation” facing the central bank.

“What people are looking for is if jobs come in a lot more benign…are we looking at just maybe one cut or no cuts for the rest of the year?” said Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at retirement and wealth services provider Empower.

Ahead of the jobs data next week is a deadline for congressional Democrats and Republicans to come to an agreement to fund the government and avoid a partial shutdown. While investors have tended to shrug off past shutdowns, such an event this time could cause more angst in markets.

One factor is elevated stock valuations, with the S&P 500 now on track for its third-straight year of double-digit percentage gains.

The index was last trading at 22.8 times expected 12-month earnings for its constituents, according to LSEG Datastream. That is around its highest level in five years and well above its 10-year average of 18.7.

“Valuations are at extremes,” Norton said. “It means a low immune system for any sort of risk that’s out there.”

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Jamie Freed)

Dollar holds gains as attention turns to spending data for Fed clues

TOKYO – The dollar held on to steep gains on Friday after better-than-forecast US data dampened expectations for further easing by the Federal Reserve this year.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against major peers, climbed 0.6% in the previous session after figures on US economic growth, unemployment claims, durable goods, and wholesale inventories all beat expectations.

The yen traded at an eight-week low following a new raft of tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump. Attention now turns to Friday’s release of US consumer spending data for signals of how urgently the economy needs additional stimulus from the Fed.

“Markets are reading through to this, and you can see a few basis points pared off of the lower rate forecasts,” said Gavin Friend, senior markets strategist at National Australia Bank. “I think when you do see numbers like we saw on Thursday, you say, well, where’s the fire?”

The dollar index was steady at 98.473, near a three-week high and on course for a 0.8% rise this week.

The greenback was flat at 149.81 yen after nearly breaking through the 150 mark for the first time since August 1. The euro stood at USD 1.1665 after a 0.6% slide on Thursday.

Markets are now pricing in an 87.7% chance of a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut from the Fed in October, down from 90%-92% odds indicated on Wednesday.

The Commerce Department reported that US gross domestic product rose by an upwardly revised rate of 3.8% from April through June, higher than the 3.3% initially reported. Economists polled by Reuters did not expect the rate to be revised.

Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase for August and a 2.7% year-on-year rise, according to a Reuters poll.

“At a time when Fed members are worried about elevated inflation, we think such a report will be encouraging,” said Bansi Madhavani, senior economist at ANZ. “So long as inflation impulse signals that this inflation trend is intact, we expect the Fed can continue to ease in gradual increments of 25 basis points.”

In Tokyo, where the central bank is on a tightening cycle, data showed core inflation in September in the capital stayed well above the central bank’s 2% target, keeping alive expectations of a near-term interest rate hike.

And just when bilateral trade deals had started to ease concerns about the impact of US tariffs, Trump announced a broad range of new import duties, including 100% on branded drugs, 25% on heavy-duty trucks, and 50% on kitchen cabinets.

(Reporting by Rocky Swift in Tokyo; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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