Oil little changed amid fading risk premium after Gaza deal

Oil prices were little changed in early Asian trade on Friday after falling more than 1% in the previous session, as the market’s war risk premium faded after Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a plan to end the war in Gaza.

Brent crude futures were up 9 cents, or 0.1%, at USD 65.31 a barrel by 0044 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 12 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 61.63.

Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement on Thursday in the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s initiative to end the war in Gaza.

Under the deal, which Israel’s government ratified on Friday, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza, and Hamas will free all remaining hostages it captured in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for hundreds of prisoners held by Israel.

Prices had reached a one-week high following gains of around 1% on Wednesday due to the stalled progress on a Ukraine peace deal, a sign that sanctions against the world’s second-largest oil exporter Russia could continue.

On a weekly basis, both benchmarks were still up around 1.2% after falling steeply last week.

The Gaza ceasefire deal was a major step towards ending the two-year war that has raised the risk of oil supply disruptions, Daniel Hynes, an analyst at ANZ, said in a note on Friday.

“This (deal) saw the focus move back to the impending oil surplus, as OPEC proceeds with the unwinding of production cuts,” Hynes said.

A smaller-than-expected November hike in output agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) on Sunday eased some of those oversupply concerns.

Investors are also worried that a prolonged US government shutdown could dampen the American economy and hurt oil demand.

(Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Tom Hogue)

Oil falls on Gaza plan, fading Middle East risk premium

Oil prices fell in early trade on Thursday after Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a plan to end the war in Gaza, weighing on oil’s war risk premium and pushing investors to sell.

Brent crude futures were down 51 cents, or 0.77%, at USD 65.74 a barrel by 0002 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 55 cents, or 0.88%, to USD 62.

US President Donald Trump said that Israel and Hamas had reached a long-sought deal for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release under a plan for ending the two-year-old war in the Palestinian enclave.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would convene the government on Thursday to approve the ceasefire agreement.

The war in Gaza has supported oil prices as investors have weighed the potential risk to global oil supply if the war were to develop into a wider regional conflict.

Prices had gained around 1% on Wednesday to reach a one-week high after investors viewed stalled progress on a Ukraine peace deal as sustaining sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, total weekly US petroleum products supplied, a proxy for US oil consumption, rose last week to 21.990 million barrels per day, the most since December 2022, showed a report from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston; Editing by Christopher Cushing)

US gold futures top USD 4,000 mark as record run gathers pace

US gold futures surged past the USD 4,000 per ounce milestone for the first time on Tuesday, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month and persistent safe-haven demand due to the ongoing US government shutdown.

US gold futures for December delivery settled 0.7% higher at USD 4,004.4, after hitting a high of USD 4,014.6.

Spot gold was up 0.6% to USD 3,985.82 per ounce as of 01:48 p.m. EDT (17:48 GMT), after hitting an all-time high of USD 3,990.85 earlier in the session.

The primary market for spot gold is the London over-the-counter (OTC) market, which serves as the global benchmark for pricing.

“It’s ongoing safe-haven flows stemming in part from the government shutdown and no real indication that is likely to be resolved in the immediate term here. So there’s still a pretty decent bid in gold,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Non-yielding gold, which tends to do well during times of uncertainty and low interest-rate environments, has climbed 51% so far this year. The metal’s rally has been driven by a cocktail of factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts, ongoing political and economic uncertainty, solid central bank buying, inflows into gold ETFs and a weak dollar.

The US government shutdown entered its seventh day on Tuesday. The shutdown has postponed the release of key economic indicators, forcing investors to rely on secondary, non-government data to gauge the timing and extent of Fed rate cuts.

Investors are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed meeting this month, with an additional 25-bp cut anticipated in December.

Meanwhile, political turmoil in France and Japan gripped currency and bond markets for a second day.

China’s central bank added gold to its reserves in September for the 11th straight month, data from the People’s Bank of China showed.

Goldman Sachs raised on Monday its December 2026 gold price forecast to USD 4,900 per ounce from USD 4,300, citing strong Western exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and likely central bank buying.

Elsewhere, spot silver was down 1.4% at USD 47.86 per ounce, platinum fell 0.5% to USD 1,617.41 and palladium was up 2.1% at USD 1,347.52.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Kavya Balaraman in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Sarah Qureshi; Editing by Vijay Kishore and Nick Zieminski)

Oil settles flat amid OPEC+ output hike, supply glut fears

HOUSTON – Oil prices steadied on Tuesday as investors weighed a smaller-than-expected increase to OPEC+ output in November against signs of a potential supply glut.

Brent crude futures settled down 2 cents, or 0.03%, to USD 65.45 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 4 cents, or 0.06%, to USD 61.73.

Both contracts settled more than 1% up in the previous session after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and some smaller producers, together known as OPEC+, decided to increase collective oil production by 137,000 barrels per day, starting in November.

The move was in contrast to market expectations for a more aggressive increase, a sign that the group remains cautious in light of predictions for a global supply surplus in the fourth quarter as well as next year, said ING analysts.

Market sentiment remains subdued, in particular after Saudi Arabia opted to keep the official selling price of its flagship crude to Asia unchanged, defying analyst expectations for an increase, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said in a note on Tuesday. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has set the November official selling price of its benchmark Murban crude at USD 70.22 a barrel, it said on Tuesday, up from October’s OSP of USD 70.10.

On the demand side, India’s fuel demand rose 7% year-on-year in September, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell of the country’s Oil Ministry.

On the supply side, US oil production is expected to hit a record of 13.53 million bpd this year, up from a prior forecast of 13.44 million bpd, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.

Global oil inventories are also expected to rise through next year as non-OPEC+ countries lead oil output growth, according to the EIA, putting significant downward pressure on commodity prices in the months ahead.

JPMorgan said global oil inventories, including crude stored on water, have risen every week in September, adding 123 million barrels during the month.

In the US, crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Crude stocks rose by 2.78 million barrels in the week ended October 3, the sources said on condition of anonymity.

Gasoline inventories fell by 1.25 million barrels, while distillate inventories dropped by 1.82 million barrels, the sources said.

China is building oil reserve sites at a rapid clip as part of a campaign to boost stockpiles, according to public data, traders, and industry experts.

Geopolitical factors have kept a floor under prices, with conflict between Russia and Ukraine affecting energy assets and creating uncertainty over Russian crude supply.

Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery halted its most productive distillation unit after a drone attack and subsequent fire on October 4, with recovery likely to take about a month, two industry sources said on Monday.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Enes Tunagur and Robert Harvey in London, Anjana Anil in Bengaluru, and Siyi Liu in Singapore; Editing by Clarence Fernandez, David Goodman, Rod Nickel, Nia Williams, and Deepa Babington)

Gold notches fresh high on safe-haven demand, Fed rate-cut bets

Gold prices rose to an all-time high on Tuesday, extending gains to a third session on US economic and political uncertainties and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold held its ground at USD 3,961.64 per ounce, as of 0055 GMT, after hitting a fresh high of USD 3,977.19 earlier in the session.

* US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.2% to USD 3,985.50.

* The White House on Monday backed off President Donald Trump’s assertion that government employees were already being laid off due to the shutdown, but warned job losses could result as the standoff looked set to stretch into a seventh day.

* Kansas City Fed Bank President Jeff Schmid signaled he is disinclined to cut interest rates further, arguing that as the Fed navigates between the twin risks of overly tight and overly easy policy, it should stay focused on the danger of too-high inflation.

* However, markets are pricing in an additional 25-basis-point rate cuts in both October and December, with probabilities of 95% and 83%, respectively, according to the CME FedWatch tool

* Non-yielding gold thrives in a low-interest-rate environment and during economic uncertainties.

* Gold has climbed 51% so far this year on strong central bank buying, increased demand for gold-backed Exchange-Traded Fund (ETFs), a weaker dollar and growing interest from retail investors seeking a hedge amid rising trade and geopolitical tensions.

* SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.17% to 1,013.16 metric tons on Monday from 1,014.88 tons on Friday.

* Elsewhere, spot silver eased 0.4% to USD 48.32 per ounce, platinum fell 0.8% to USD 1,612.85 and palladium lost 0.3% to USD 1,315.86.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

Japan’s Nikkei hits record high as chip-related stocks track US peers

By Junko Fujita

TOKYO, Oct 7 (Reuters) – Japan’s Nikkei share average hit a record high on Tuesday as chip-related stocks advanced to track their U.S. peers, but the index pared gains as enthusiasm toward a new leader of the nation’s ruling party retreated.

As of 0044 GMT, the Nikkei .N225 was up 0.3% at 48,075.52, after hitting a record high of 48,527.33 earlier in the sesion.

The broader Topix .TOPX edged up 0.14% at 3,230.82.

The Nikkei rallied for a third straight session on Monday, and crossed the 48,000 level for the first time, after Sanae Takaichi was all but confirmed to become the country’s next premier, stoking bets on a revival in big spending and loose monetary policy.

“Investors continued to buy stocks on expectations for Takaichi’s policy today, but the market did not have the momentum it had in the previous session,” said Yugo Tsuboi, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities.

“Shares are not rising in a broad rally, with half of the stocks falling.”

Chip-testing equipment maker Advantest 6857.T rose 1.34%, while SoftBank Group 9984.T, an investor in artificial intelligence-related firms, rose 0.96% to track its U.S. peers.

Overnight, the S&P 500 .SPX and the Nasdaq .IXIC reached record closing highs on Monday, as AI-related dealmaking boosted investor sentiment even as the U.S. government shutdown extended through its sixth day.

Chip-making equipment maker Tokyo Electron 8035.T reversed gains to fall 0.36%.

Of more than 1,600 stocks trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s prime market, 52% fell, 42% rose and 5% traded flat.

(Reporting by Junko Fujita; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

((junko.fujita@thomsonreuters.com;))

Oil steady as market chews over OPEC+ output hike, supply glut fear

By Anjana Anil

Oct 7 (Reuters) – Oil prices were steady on Tuesday, with sentiment toward a smaller-than-anticipated OPEC+ output hike dulled by weakening global demand and the potential for a supply glut.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 gained 1 cent, or 0.02%, to $65.48 a barrel by 0014 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was unchanged at $61.69 a barrel.

Both contracts settled more than 1% higher in the previous session.

“Crude oil prices gained after OPEC announced a smaller than expected production rise. The oil market has been anticipating a large rise in quotas for the group’s members as they met to discuss their supply agreement over the weekend,” ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes wrote in a note to clients.

“This staved off fears of an even bigger surplus than the one the market is anticipating in coming months.”

On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and some smaller producers – known as OPEC+ – decided to increase its collective oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November.

The group has increased its oil output targets by more than 2.7 million bpd this year, equating to about 2.5% of global demand.

Geopolitical factors have kept a floor under prices, with conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacting energy assets and creating uncertainty over Russian crude supply.

Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery halted its most productive distillation unit, CDU-6, following a drone attack and subsequent fire on October 4, with its recovery likely to take about a month, two industry sources said on Monday.

Still, oil prices have come under pressure as investors see a likelihood of a supply surplus as output increases from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers. Moreover, any slowdown in demand due to weak economic growth triggered by U.S. trade tariffs is likely to exacerbate the surplus, analysts said.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Christopher Cushing)

((Anjana.Anil@thomsonreuters.com;))

Gold sails past USD 3,900/oz for first time on safe-haven bids

Gold surged past the USD 3,900-an-ounce level for the first time on Monday, driven by safe-haven demand following a fall in the yen and a US government shutdown, while growing expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts also lent support.

Spot gold was up 0.9% at USD 3,922.28 per ounce by 0208 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of USD 3,924.39 earlier in the session. US gold futures for December delivery gained 1% to USD 3,947.30.

“Yen weakness on the back of the Japanese LDP elections has left investors with one less safe-haven asset to go to, and gold was able to capitalize,” said KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer.

“The enduring US government shutdown means that a cloud of uncertainty still hangs over the US economy and the potential size of any GDP impact.”

Gold is a go-to asset for investors under these circumstances, particularly with the Fed expected to cut rates further this month, Waterer said.

The yen tumbled against the US dollar by the most in five months after fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi was elected to lead the ruling party and become the next prime minister.

The Trump administration will start mass layoffs of federal workers if US President Donald Trump decides negotiations with congressional Democrats to end a partial government shutdown are “absolutely going nowhere,” a senior White House official said on Sunday.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran pressed for an aggressive rate cut trajectory again on Friday, citing the impact of Trump administration’s economic policies.

Gold has climbed 49% so far this year after a 27% rise in 2024, helped by strong central bank buying, increased demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds, a weaker dollar and growing interest from retail investors seeking a hedge amid rising trade and geopolitical tensions.

The rally found fresh support last month after the Fed cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point and indicated it would steadily lower borrowing costs for the rest of the year.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors are pricing in additional 25-basis-point cuts in both October and December, with probabilities of 95% and 83%, respectively.

Non-yielding gold thrives in a low interest rate environment and during economic uncertainties.

Spot gold broke the USD 3,000-per-ounce level for the first time in March and USD 3,700 in mid-September. Many brokerages have turned bullish on the rally.

Elsewhere, spot silver climbed 0.8% to USD 48.33 per ounce, platinum rose 1.1% to USD 1,621.90, and palladium gained 0.8% to USD 1,270.25.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy and Subhranshu Sahu)

Politics jolts markets as Japan stocks soar 4%, bitcoin leaps to record high with gold

TOKYO – Japanese stocks surged more than 4% to an all-time high while the yen skidded on Monday after fiscal and monetary dove Sanae Takaichi was elected as leader of the ruling party, putting her on course to become the nation’s first female prime minister.

Gold climbed to a record peak above USD 3,900, while leading cryptocurrency bitcoin rallied to a lifetime high on Sunday, with investors increasingly turning to alternative assets as a store of value as the US government shutdown frayed nerves.

Japan’s Nikkei soared as much as 4.3% to an unprecedented 47,734.04 in the first 15 minutes of trading after Takaichi bested the more moderate Shinjiro Koizumi in the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership vote on Saturday, stoking expectations for fiscal stimulus.

The yen slumped 1.6% to the cusp of 150 per US dollar while short-dated Japanese government bond yields slid to a two-week low as traders pared back bets on when the Bank of Japan will resume raising interest rates.

Market-implied odds of a BOJ hike by year-end fell to 41% from 68% on Friday.

A year ago, Takaichi criticized the BOJ’s decision to raise rates as “stupid”, although her recent rhetoric has been more restrained, saying only that central bank policy should be aligned with the government.

“We believe concerns among some investors that the next administration might pursue extreme fiscal expansion or exert political pressure on the BOJ are overblown,” Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities economists wrote in a research report, noting that Takaichi’s stance “appears closely aligned” with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s “cautious approach” to policy normalization.

Most other major share markets around the region were closed for holidays, including mainland China, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.3%, ahead of a holiday on Tuesday. Australia’s benchmark eased 0.1%, though trading was thinned by holidays in several states, including New South Wales and Queensland.

US S&P 500 futures pointed 0.2% higher, after the cash index rose to a record high on Friday.

The US dollar made up some ground on European currencies, capitalizing on its momentum against the yen to rebound from last week’s 0.5% decline against a basket of major peers.

The euro lost 0.25% to USD 1.1714, and sterling slipped 0.23% to USD 1.34385.

Gold last changed hands around USD 3,904 after advancing as much as 0.9% earlier to a record USD 3,919.59.

Bitcoin traded around USD 123,590 following its jump to USD 125,653.32 on Sunday.

“The shutdown matters this time around,” said Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank.

“This year, bitcoin has traded with ‘US government risks,’ as best shown by its relationship to (the) US Treasury term premium,” he added.

“I suspect bitcoin will rise throughout the shutdown,” and will soon reach USD 135,000, Kendrick predicted.

Oil prices rose after OPEC+ announced on Sunday it would increase production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) from November, the same modest monthly increase as in October, amid persistent concerns over a looming supply glut.

In the run-up to the meeting, sources said Russia was advocating for an output increase of 137,000 bpd to avoid pressuring prices, but Saudi Arabia would have preferred double, triple or even quadruple that figure to regain market share more quickly.

Brent crude futures rose 1.3% to USD 65.39 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at USD 61.71, up by 1.4%.

(Reporting by Kevin Buckland)

Wall Street eyes Washington standoff with stocks near records

NEW YORK – The US government shutdown tops investors’ agenda next week as markets head into the seasonally strong fourth quarter, with equities near record highs bracing for an earnings-season test later this month.

A deep partisan rift in Washington led to a federal government shutdown that risks delaying crucial economic data and could potentially muddy the Federal Reserve’s policy-easing outlook.

Few on Wall Street expect the Washington impasse to derail a rally that has lifted the S&P 500 by 14% to repeated record highs, but with little in the way of major data or earnings, the Capitol Hill drama is set to dominate investor focus.

“The shutdown and the potential reopening … that’s going to get almost all investor attention,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide.

Investors’ main worry is that the shutdown will suspend the flow of timely economic data.

Should the data drought last several weeks, it could cause confusion about the Fed’s monetary policy path, as the central bank will be without government data that helps guide its decisions. It also poses a possible drag on economic growth the longer it extends.

But for now, there is little reason to panic, investors said.

BULLS IN CHARGE

Despite some softness in labor data, the US economy has borne the onslaught of trade and tariff headlines well and corporate earnings have supported stocks’ march higher.

Analysts as of Thursday expected earnings from S&P 500 companies to increase 8.8% in the third quarter from a year ago, up from forecasts of 8.0% growth at the start of July, according to LSEG data.

“In my opinion, lack of data actually puts more burden of proof on bears than it does on bulls,” Hackett said.

Investors will get a taste of the upcoming earnings season, with Levi Strauss and Delta Air Lines set to report results on Thursday.

“The most likely scenario is the market’s just kind of calm … moving sideways during the shutdown,” Hackett said.

KEY Advisors Wealth Management CEO Eddie Ghabour, who sees the shutdown possibly stretching for two to four weeks, echoed the sentiment.

“If we’re right on the shutdown stretching out, if you get extra stimulus in the economy in the form of two more rate cuts, and then the government is back in business, you’re going to see a huge re-acceleration of growth in the economy and the equity markets,” Ghabour said.

Investors will get a read on what Fed policymakers were thinking when they cut rates in September when the minutes of that meeting are released on Wednesday.

SEASONALLY STRONG

For stock bulls, it helps that the just-started fourth quarter is historically the S&P 500’s strongest, with an average gain of about 2.9% and a high share of positive returns, according to LSEG data going back to 1928.

“Despite headline risks and the potential for short-term volatility, the weight of the evidence continues to support a constructive stance,” Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, said in a note on Thursday.

“As always, we will continue to follow the weight of the evidence.”

Meanwhile, the market’s strong momentum has stock bears in hibernation. The S&P 500 logged its 30th record closing high of the year on Thursday.

“The shutdown is going to be the news, but I think the underlying backdrop is really three things, seasonality, which is positive, the tailwind of rate cuts to protect the labor market … and we have momentum in the markets,” said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group.

“We’ve been overweight equities and we are continuing to be that,” he said.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Additional reporting by Laura Matthews; Editing by Alden Bentley and Jamie Freed)

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