THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
economy-ss-8
Inflation Update: Weak demand softens shocks
DOWNLOAD
948 x 535 px AdobeStock_433552847
Economic Updates
Monthly Economic Update: Fed cuts incoming   
DOWNLOAD
equities-3may23-2
Consensus Pricing
Consensus Pricing – June 2025
DOWNLOAD
View all Reports
Metrobank.com.ph How To Sign Up
Follow us on our platforms.

How may we help you?

TOP SEARCHES
  • Where to put my investments
  • Reports about the pandemic and economy
  • Metrobank
  • Webinars
  • Economy
TRENDING ARTICLES
  • Investing for Beginners: Following your PATH
  • On government debt thresholds: How much is too much?
  • Philippines Stock Market Outlook for 2022
  • No Relief from Deficit Spending Yet

Login

Access Exclusive Content
Login to Wealth Manager
Visit us at metrobank.com.ph How To Sign Up
Access Exclusive Content Login to Wealth Manager
Search
THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
economy-ss-8
Inflation Update: Weak demand softens shocks
July 4, 2025 DOWNLOAD
948 x 535 px AdobeStock_433552847
Economic Updates
Monthly Economic Update: Fed cuts incoming   
June 30, 2025 DOWNLOAD
equities-3may23-2
Consensus Pricing
Consensus Pricing – June 2025
June 25, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports

Archives: Reuters Articles

China stocks fall as economy slips into deflation

HONG KONG, Aug 9  – China A-shares extended losses on Wednesday as consumer prices fell into deflation, with markets looking forward to more stimulus policies to revive spending. Hong Kong stocks closed higher.

** China’s blue-chip CSI 300 Index dipped 0.31%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.49%.

** Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged up 0.32% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.39%.

** China’s consumer prices fell into deflation in July, dropping 0.3% year-on-year, its first fall in over two years.

** Factory gate prices fell for the tenth consecutive month.

** Chinese policymakers will soon organize a meeting with four biggest cities’ top leaders to discuss property policy optimization, Chinese media Economic Observer reported on Wednesday.

** “Both CPI and PPI are in deflation territory. The economic momentum continues to weaken due to lacklustre domestic demand,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president of Pinpoint Asset Management.

** The CPI deflation may put more pressure on the government to consider additional fiscal stimulus, he said.

** Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note they expect annual PPI inflation to bottom out this quarter and CPI inflation to experience a “U-shaped” recovery in the coming months.

** Linus Yip, chief strategist at First Shanghai Securities, said the falling CPI is not all bad news.

** Given the US rate hike cycle is close to an end, today’s CPI number actually makes some investors look forward to a larger room for policy easing, he said.

** Meanwhile, major state-owned banks were seen selling US dollars to buy the yuan in the onshore spot foreign exchange market, sources told Reuters, in a bid to slow yuan declines.

** Tech giants listed in Hong Kong narrowed losses in the noon session and closed flat.

** In mainland A-shares, healthcare stocks climbed 1.4%, while artificial intelligence-related firms down 2%.

** Top homebuilder Country Garden lost another 1.8% after a 14% slump on Tuesday as the company missed two dollar bond coupon payments.

(Reporting by Summer Zhen; Editing by Savio D’Souza and Varun H K)

Oil hits new highs on US fuel demand, tighter supply

Oil hits new highs on US fuel demand, tighter supply

HOUSTON, Aug 9 – Oil prices hit new peaks on Wednesday with the global Brent benchmark touching its highest since January after a steep drawdown in US fuel stockpiles and Saudi and Russian output cuts offset concerns about slow demand from China.

Brent crude settled USD 1.38, or 1.6%, higher at USD 87.55 a barrel, its highest since Jan. 27.

West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed USD 1.48, or 1.8%, higher at USD 84.40, at its highest since November 2022.

US gasoline stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, dropped by 1.7 million barrels, government data showed, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for both to hold mostly steady. EIA/S

“The draws in refined products continue to be bullish for the oil market,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

Markets largely shrugged off a higher-than-expected 5.85-million-barrel build in US crude stocks after a record drawdown the week before.

The US fuel stock drawdown helped offset some demand concerns after Chinese data on Tuesday showed crude oil imports in July fell 18.8% from the previous month to their lowest daily rate since January.

China’s consumer sector also fell into deflation and factory-gate prices extended declines in July, as the world’s second-largest economy struggled to revive demand.

Supporting prices, however, were top exporter Saudi Arabia’s plans to extend its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day for another month to include September. Russia also said it would cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September.

“The latest recovery is mainly driven by the pledge of major producers, like Saudi Arabia and Russia, to keep supply subdued for another month,” said Charalampos Pissouros, senior investment analyst at broker XM.

Crude posted its sixth consecutive weekly gain last week, helped by a reduction in OPEC+ supplies and hopes of stimulus boosting oil demand recovery in China.

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia’s cabinet said it reaffirmed its support for precautionary measures by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, to stabilize the market, state media reported.

Markets will also closely watch July’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on Thursday, which is expected to show a slight year-over-year acceleration.

(Additional reporting by Alex Lawler in London, Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo, and Andrew Hayley in Beijing; Editing by Paul Simao, Kirsten Donovan, and Cynthia Osterman)

 

China seen sliding into deflation

China seen sliding into deflation

Aug 9 – The first round of top-tier Chinese economic data this week was a blow for those hoping the world’s second-largest economy was emerging from its deep funk, so what will the second round on Wednesday bring?

Further disappointment, most probably.

Figures on Wednesday are expected to show that Chinese consumer prices fell 0.4% in July from the same month a year ago, meaning China will be the first G20 country to fall into deflation since Japan last posted negative CPI growth two years ago.

With cracks also reappearing in the Chinese property sector and Wall Street knocked off course by US banking downgrades by ratings agency Moody’s, risk appetite in Asia is likely to be in short supply on Wednesday.

After Tuesday’s trade data showed that exports fell a larger-than-forecast 14.5% last month and imports plunged more than twice as fast as expected, the balance of risks for July’s CPI print is probably to the downside.

Nobody can say they haven’t been warned. Producer prices in China have been falling on an annual basis every month since October, and more importantly, the pace of decline has accelerated this year.

June’s 5.4% fall marked the deepest factory gate deflation since 2015. Figures on Wednesday are expected to show a slight cooling off to 4.1% in July, but again, would anyone be completely shocked if it came in below forecasts?

The range of PPI forecasts is -6.1% to -2.9%, and the CPI range is -0.9% to 0.5%, according to Reuters polls.

Staying with China, Country Garden said on Tuesday it has not paid two-dollar bond coupons due on Aug. 6 totaling USD 22.5 million, confirming market fears that the biggest privately-owned developer in China is slipping into repayment troubles.

Hong Kong’s benchmark property index lost nearly 5% on Tuesday, and with sentiment already badly soured by the trade figures, China’s blue-chip CSI 300 index fell for a second day and the yuan fell to a four-week low against the dollar.

On the Asian corporate calendar, Bridgestone, Honda, and Sony are among the major Japanese firms publishing their latest earnings reports on Wednesday.

Asian stocks will likely open on the defensive after the downgrading of several US lenders by Moody’s reignited fears about the health of US banks and the economy.

Moody’s cut ratings on 10 small- to mid-sized lenders by one notch and placed six banking giants on review for potential downgrades. After coming within 5% of their lifetime highs last month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have both fallen five sessions out of six so far this month.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– China CPI and PPI inflation (July)

– South Korea unemployment (July)

– Japan broad money supply (July)

(By Jamie McGeever; editing by Deepa Babington)

 

Fund capitulation on record short US equity bet pays off

Fund capitulation on record short US equity bet pays off

ORLANDO, Florida, Aug 8 – Better late than never.

In the two months since hedge funds began bailing on their record net short position in S&P 500 futures their equity returns have accelerated, narrowing the yawning year-to-date underperformance versus the broader market.

The latest performance numbers from hedge fund industry data provider HFR show that the HFRI Equity Hedge (Total) Index rose 2.0% in July, a solid start to the third quarter on the heels of an even stronger 3.1% rise in June.

This global index mirrors HFR’s US equity index and dovetails with Commodity Futures Trading Commission data – funds have more than halved their record net short position in S&P 500 futures since the end of May, and returns have picked up as Wall Street has marched higher.

The question now is do funds have the appetite to go outright long, bearing in mind how high the S&P 500 index is, how expensive US stocks are, and how high nominal and real bond yields are?

Against that backdrop, perhaps not, although the weekly momentum on funds’ S&P 500 futures positioning is the most bullish since December 2021.

Hedge funds have mostly been wrong on stocks recently – heavily long early last year as the S&P 500 headed for a 20% loss and its worst year since 2008, and holding a record short position as recently as May with the index up 20% year to date.

They’re starting to put that right now though.

The latest CFTC figures show that hedge funds’ net short position in e-mini S&P 500 futures at the end of July was around 200,000 contracts, the smallest net short since March.

Just two months ago, at the end of May, funds were net short to the tune of 434,000 contracts, the largest net short position on record since these contracts were launched in 1997.

That’s worth pausing for thought. By this one – admittedly far from perfect – measure, speculators only two months ago were shorting US stocks more than they did during the Great Financial Crisis, 2011 debt ceiling crisis, or the pandemic.

But as the relentless AI-fueled tech rally and solid earnings pushed equities higher, funds quickly threw in the towel and the resulting wave of short covering in June and July more than halved that record net short position.

Not coincidentally, the S&P 500 rose 10% in that period and hedge funds essentially tripled their year-to-date equity returns – the HFRI Equity Hedge (Total) Index at the end of July was up 7.83% YTD compared with 2.51% at the end of May.

That still represents a significant lag on the main indices – the S&P 500 was up 10% in the first five months of the year and up 20% in the January-July period, while the mega tech-fueled Nasdaq surge this year has been even more impressive.

But the tentative recovery in equities is helping to cement wider gains and the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index rose 1.51% in July. Barring the pandemic-distorted 2.97% rise in July 2020, this was funds’ best July performance since 2016.

If equity strategy-based hedge funds are slowly turning their poor 2023 performance around, their macro fund peers continue to struggle.

The HFRI Macro (Total) Index returned 0.47% in July, which reduced year-to-date losses to 0.36%. That is still failing to meet even the low bar set by benchmark fixed income indices – in the first seven months of the year the ICE BofA US Corporate Bond index was up 4%, the ICE BofA global corporate bond index was up 3%, and the ICE BofA global Treasury index was up 1%.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

 

Gold drops to near one-month low as dollar rallies

Gold drops to near one-month low as dollar rallies

Aug 8 – Gold prices fell to a near one-month low on Tuesday as investors took refuge in the dollar after weak Chinese trade data, while caution prevailed ahead of US inflation figures later this week.

Spot gold slipped 0.6% to USD 1,925.79 an ounce by 01:46 p.m. EDT (1746 GMT), after hitting its lowest since July 10. US gold futures settled 0.5% lower at USD 1,959.9.

“A lot of nervousness about the global growth outlook and it is probably going to be a lot weaker than people anticipated and that’s triggered a move into the dollar,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst of the Americas at OANDA.

The dollar rose 0.5% against its rivals, making gold less attractive for other currency holders.

All eyes will be on US consumer price index data due on Thursday. US inflation likely accelerated slightly in July to an annual 3.3%, while the core rate was likely unchanged at 4.8%, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

“US inflation report matters, but the one that’s more important is the one we’ll get next month and that will probably suggest that we’re going to see some choppiness in gold in the near term,” Moya said.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Monday outlined the likely need for additional rate hikes to lower inflation to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while New York Fed chief John C. Williams expected rates could begin to come down next year.

Gold is highly sensitive to rising US interest rates, as these increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Reflecting downbeat sentiment in gold, holdings of the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust GLD, fell to a five-month low on Monday.

“While central banks recorded a record first half in terms of gold demand, traders and investors in futures and ETFs remain skeptical about the current upside potential,” said Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen.

Silver dropped 1.7% to USD 22.76 per ounce, platinum fell 2% to USD 901.51 and palladium shed 1.5% to USD 1,220.99.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Sherin Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Sharon Singleton)

 

US soft landing means bumpy ride for bonds

US soft landing means bumpy ride for bonds

LONDON/ NEW YORK, Aug 8 – The name is bond… long bond. The recent jump in yields of long-dated US government debt has sparked a hunt for the culprit worthy of a 007 movie. Traders are right to worry, though. If the world’s largest economy avoids a recession, persistent price pressures may keep rates elevated and compound Uncle Sam’s spending problems.

Fixed-income investors could use a holiday. Yields on 10-year US government bonds reached 4.19% last Thursday, their highest level since November 2022 and not far from the 5-year-high. Yields on 30-year US debt also jumped. Though the market eased on Friday after softer-than-expected US employment numbers, policymakers and corporate executives should still heed the warning signal in bond prices.

There are many factors that contributed to the sharp movement in bond yields. These include the downgrade of US government debt by Fitch Ratings and tighter monetary policy in Japan. But the biggest contributor is the Federal Reserve’s apparent success in guiding inflation back towards its 2% target without choking growth and employment.

This surprise feat, which economists have christened “immaculate disinflation”, has a flip side. If the United States economy can avoid a recession even during the most aggressive monetary tightening in generations, then growth – and inflation – will pick up earlier than expected. That, in turn, will require the Fed to keep rates high, putting upward pressure on bond yields.

Short-term bonds didn’t move much last week, suggesting that investors believe the Fed’s current interest rate is adequate for now. But long-dated bonds, which are much more sensitive to the long-term cost of borrowing, show the market’s outlook has changed. Investors previously believed the Fed’s sharp policy tightening would trigger a recession, leading to a quick reversal in interest rates. Now, as TS Lombard’s Dario Perkins recently wrote, “2% inflation becomes a floor as opposed to a ceiling.”

This shift has another consequence, which is also bad news for holders of government bonds: Washington’s debt interest bill will rise. Even before last week’s market gyrations, the Congressional Budget Office projected that Uncle Sam’s interest costs will double to 3.6% of GDP by 2033. In its credit downgrade Fitch forecast the US government deficit would hit 6.9% of GDP in 2025, up from 3.7% last year.

James Bond had to contend with Goldfinger. Investors in long bonds are fighting Goldilocks.

CONTEXT NEWS

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds climbed as high as 4.19% on Aug. 3, the highest level since November 2022. The uptick came one day after Fitch Ratings cut the US government’s credit rating to AA-plus from AAA, with the agency citing the growing federal budget deficit as a key factor in its decision.

The US Consumer Price Index climbed 3% in the year through June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, down from the 9% inflation rate seen in June 2022.

(Editing by Peter Thal Larsen and Sharon Lam)

 

Bank stocks sink on Moody’s downgrades, Italy’s windfall tax

Bank stocks sink on Moody’s downgrades, Italy’s windfall tax

Aug 8 – US and European bank stocks dropped on Tuesday on renewed investor worries about the health of the industry after ratings agency Moody’s downgraded several US lenders and Italy approved a surprise 40% windfall tax on its lenders.

Moody’s cut credit ratings of several US regional lenders on Monday and placed some banking giants on review for a potential downgrade. It warned US banks will find it harder to make money as interest rates remain high, funding costs climb, and a recession looms. It also cited some lenders’ exposure to commercial real estate as a concern.

“What we’re doing here is recognizing some headwinds – we’re not saying that the banking system is broken,” Ana Arsov, managing director of financial institutions at Moody’s, told Reuters in an interview.

The failures of three US lenders earlier this year sparked the biggest industry crisis since 2008 and precipitated UBS Group’s (UBSG) government-backed takeover of Credit Suisse. While the turmoil has subsided in recent months, investors remain cautious.

“This is just another reminder that there are still challenges in the regional banking space,” said Macrae Sykes, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds in New York. “High exposure to commercial real estate, rising deposit and funding cost are some of the key concerns that the banks are facing.”

The KBW Regional Banking Index lost 1.38% on Tuesday, while the shares of some of the banks downgraded by Moody’s, including M&T Bank MTB.N, Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP), and BOK Financial Corp (BOKF), fell between 1.7% and 2.1%.

Banks that were placed on review for potential downgrade closed lower, including Bank of New York Mellon (BK), State Street (STT), and Truist Financial (TFC). Truist and BNY Mellon declined to comment, while the others did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The gloom also affected major lenders that were not mentioned by Moody’s, with the broader S&P 500 Banks Index sliding almost 1.07%.

Investors have scaled down their expectations for future bank earnings, and markets have already priced in some of the factors Moody’s cited, said Mike Mayo, a bank analyst at Wells Fargo.

“We are probably in the later stages of this downward revision,” Mayo told Reuters. “This is the toll of higher rates for longer, the potential of a recession. It’s different from what happened in the March crisis, this is more an issue about rates, recession, and risk.”

Christopher Marinac, director of research at Janney Montgomery Scott, took a more sanguine view. “Nothing has changed on US banks,” said Marinac. “Second-quarter earnings proved that banks can experience weak revenues and still have improved capital ratios and stable tangible book value.”

Major Italian banks Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP), Banco BPM (BAMI), and UniCredit (CRDI) fell between 5.9% and 9% after the government set a one-off 40% tax on profits reaped from higher interest rates.

Italian lenders weighed on the European bank index, which slid 3.54%.

Citigroup analysts calculated the tax could wipe nearly a fifth of Italian banks’ 2023 net income, while Bank of America estimates showed the measure could generate up to 3 billion euros (USD 3.3 billion) for the government.

(Reporting by Niket Nishant, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru and Lananh Nguyen, Nupur Anand, Chibuike Oguh, Tatiana Bautzer, and Davide Barbuscia in New York; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty, Michelle Price, Andrea Ricci, and Jonathan Oatis)

 

China’s trade slumps, threatening recovery prospects

BEIJING, Aug 8 – China’s imports and exports fell much faster than expected in July as weaker demand threatens recovery prospects in the world’s second-largest economy, heightening pressure for authorities to release fresh stimulus to steady growth.

The grim trade numbers reinforce expectations that economic activity could slow further in the third quarter, with construction, manufacturing and services activity, foreign direct investment and industrial profits all weakening.

Imports dropped 12.4% in July year-on-year, customs data showed on Tuesday, missing a forecast fall of 5% in a Reuters poll and off a 6.8% decline in June. Meanwhile, exports contracted 14.5%, steeper than an expected 12.5% decline and the previous month’s 12.4% fall.

The pace of export decline was the fastest since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020 and the tumble in imports was the biggest since January this year, when COVID infections shut shops and factories.

While the weakness in the value of imports reflects poor demand, falls in commodities prices have also exacerbated the headline declines, analysts say.

“Most measures of export orders point to a much greater decline in foreign demand than has so far been reflected in the customs data,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics.

“And the near-term outlook for consumer spending in developed economies remains challenging, with many still at risk of recessions later this year, albeit mild ones.”

The yuan hit a three-week low and Asian stocks and the Australian and New Zealand dollars, seen as proxies for Chinese growth, turned weaker after the data.

Added pains
China’s economy grew at a sluggish pace in the second quarter as demand weakened at home and abroad, prompting top leaders to promise further policy support and analysts to downgrade their growth forecasts for the year.

The value of China’s exports declined 5% year-on-year in the first half of the year despite total cargo throughput increasing an annual 10% in the second quarter and 8% in the first, according to Fitch.

The headline import figure was worse than forecast because “economists may be misunderstanding the price factors underlying commodities, which dominate Chinese imports,” explained Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“For example, China is importing more oil but at lower prices, as a result the volume of crude oil accelerated in July, but the import value slowed. Similar logic holds for grains and soybeans.”

Crude oil shipments to the world’s biggest oil importer were 17% higher in July than the same period last year, but fell 18.8% from the previous month to the lowest daily rate since January, while soybean imports in July jumped 23.5% from a year ago, off the back of near-record production in Brazil.

Exports to the United States – the top destination for Chinese goods – tumbled 23.1% year-on-year, while shipments to the European Union fell 20.6%, as diplomatic tensions mount over chip technology and “de-risking” from China.

South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of Chinese demand for global goods, fell 25.1% in July from a year earlier, the sharpest decline in three months.

Beijing is looking for ways to boost domestic consumption without easing monetary policy too much lest it triggers large capital outflows.

The state planner last week said stimulus would be forthcoming, but investors have so far been underwhelmed by proposals to expand consumption in the automobile, real estate and services sectors.

(Reporting by Joe Cash. Editing by Sam Holmes)

Oil prices fall as weak China trade data offsets supply concerns

SINGAPORE, Aug 8 – Oil prices slipped on Tuesday after data showed China’s imports and exports fell much more than expected in July in a further sign of weak growth in the world’s largest oil importer, although losses were limited by expected supply tightness.

Brent crude futures were at USD 85.05 a barrel, down by 29 cents, or 0.34%, at 0641 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at USD 81.69 a barrel, down by 25 cents, or 0.31%.

Oil imports to China in July were 43.69 million metric tons, or 10.29 million barrels per day (bpd), data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Tuesday. That was down 18.8%from imports in June, but still up 17% from a year ago.

At the same time, China’s overall imports dropped 12.4% and exports fell 14.5% from a year earlier. The pace of export decline was the fastest since February 2020 and worse than analysts’ expectations.

Despite the gloomy data, some analysts were still positive on China’s fuel demand outlook for August to early October as crude processing rates remained high.

It is the peak season for construction and manufacturing activities starting September and gasoline consumption should benefit from summer travel demand, said CMC Markets analyst Leon Li. Demand is expected to gradually decrease after October, he added.

On the supply side, Saudi Arabia, the world’s top exporter, has said it would extend a voluntary oil output cut of 1 million bpd for another month to include September, adding that it could extend the cut beyond that date or make a deeper cut to production after September.

Russia also said it would cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September.

“Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend production cuts into September despite Brent futures rising above $80 per barrel suggests that the kingdom may be targeting a higher price than $80,” said Vivek Dhar, mining and energy commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Investors are also awaiting U.S. oil and fuel products inventory data. A Reuters poll on Monday showed forecasts for a 200,000-barrel drawdown in crude inventories and a rise in gasoline stocks of 200,000 barrels.

(Reporting by Emily Chow and Trixie Yap; Editing by Cynthia Osterman, Christian Schmollinger and Sonali Paul)

Oil edges up on higher US economic growth outlook; China import slump weighs

Oil edges up on higher US economic growth outlook; China import slump weighs

NEW YORK, Aug 8 – Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday as a US government agency projected a rosier outlook on the economy, but bearish data on China’s crude imports and exports weighed.

Brent crude futures gained 83 cents to settle at USD 86.17 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 98 cents to USD 82.92.

Both contracts had fallen by USD 2 earlier in the session, but prices reversed course after a monthly report from the US Energy Information Administration projected gross domestic product growth to rise by 1.9% in 2023, up from 1.5% in a previous forecast.

The EIA also expects Brent crude oil prices to average USD 86 in the second half of 2023, up about USD 7 from the previous forecast.

US crude production is expected to rise by 850,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 12.76 million bpd in 2023, the report added, overtaking the last peak of 12.3 million bpd in 2019.

Crude prices have been rising since June, primarily because of extended voluntary cuts to Saudi Arabia’s production as well as increasing global demand, the EIA said.

“We expect these factors will continue to reduce global oil inventories and put upward pressure on oil prices in the coming months,” the EIA added.

Weighing on prices on Tuesday, however, China’s July oil imports were down 18.8% from the previous month to the lowest daily rate since January, but still up 17% from a year earlier.

Overall, China’s imports contracted by 12.4% in July, far steeper than the expected 5% drop. Exports fell by 14.5%, compared with a fall of 12.5% tipped by economists.

Despite the gloomy data, some analysts were still positive about China’s fuel demand outlook for August to early October.

The peak season for construction and manufacturing activity starts in September and gasoline consumption should benefit from summer travel demand, said CMC Markets analyst Leon Li. Demand is expected to decrease gradually after October, he added.

Last week’s decision by Saudi Arabia to extend a voluntary output cut of 1 million bpd into September, despite Brent rising above USD 80, suggested Riyadh might be targeting a higher price than USD 80, said Vivek Dhar, mining, and energy commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Still, some analysts were skeptical about how much supply the cuts were actually taking off the market, as other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries such as Libya and Venezuela have increased production, said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

“The production cuts have been far less than the announced quota cuts,” Lipow said.

US crude oil stocks rose last week, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles dropped, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. API/S

Crude stocks rose by about 4.1 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 4, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by about 400,000 barrels, while distillate inventories fell by about 2.1 million barrels.

US government data on stockpiles is due on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly; additional reporting by Natalie Grover, Emily Chow, and Trixie Yap; Editing by Mark Potter, Alex Richardson, and Jamie Freed)

 

Posts navigation

Older posts
Newer posts

Recent Posts

  • Investment Ideas: July 18, 2025 
  • July Market Update: Two-pronged strategy amid uncertainty 
  • Investment Ideas: July 17, 2025 
  • Investment Ideas: July 16, 2025
  • Investment Ideas: July 15, 2025

Recent Comments

No comments to show.

Archives

  • July 2025
  • June 2025
  • May 2025
  • April 2025
  • March 2025
  • February 2025
  • January 2025
  • December 2024
  • November 2024
  • October 2024
  • September 2024
  • August 2024
  • July 2024
  • June 2024
  • May 2024
  • April 2024
  • March 2024
  • February 2024
  • January 2024
  • December 2023
  • November 2023
  • October 2023
  • September 2023
  • August 2023
  • July 2023
  • June 2023
  • May 2023
  • April 2023
  • March 2023
  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • March 2022
  • December 2021
  • October 2021

Categories

  • Bonds
  • BusinessWorld
  • Currencies
  • Economy
  • Equities
  • Estate Planning
  • Explainer
  • Featured Insight
  • Fine Living
  • How To
  • Investment Tips
  • Markets
  • Portfolio Picks
  • Rates & Bonds
  • Retirement
  • Reuters
  • Spotlight
  • Stocks
  • Uncategorized

You are leaving Metrobank Wealth Insights

Please be aware that the external site policies may differ from our website Terms And Conditions and Privacy Policy. The next site will be opened in a new browser window or tab.

Cancel Proceed
Get in Touch

For inquiries, please call our Metrobank Contact Center at (02) 88-700-700 (domestic toll-free 1-800-1888-5775) or send an e-mail to customercare@metrobank.com.ph

Metrobank is regulated by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Website: https://www.bsp.gov.ph

Quick Links
The Gist Webinars Wealth Manager Explainers
Markets
Currencies Rates & Bonds Equities Economy
Wealth
Investment Tips Fine Living Retirement
Portfolio Picks
Bonds Stocks
Others
Contact Us Privacy Statement Terms of Use
© 2025 Metrobank. All rights reserved.

Access this content:

If you are an existing investor, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account. ​

If you wish to start your wealth journey with us, click the “How To Sign Up” button. ​

Login HOW TO SIGN UP