Yen drifts after breaching 2023 low, dollar gains

SINGAPORE, Aug 14 – The yen slipped on Monday to its lowest in the year against the dollar, breaching the key 145 level before regaining some ground as traders warily looked for clues on possible intervention, while the dollar rose to a more than one-month peak.

The Japanese yen JPY=EBS weakened to as low as 145.22 per dollar in early Asian hours, its lowest since Nov. 10 before quickly reversing course in a volatile start to the week. It last fetched 144.92, up 0.03%.

Japan’s low yields have made the currency an easy target for short-sellers and funding trades, with the widening gap in the interest rates between Japan and the United States leading to persistent weakness in the yen.

Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, prompting the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen. The yen is down nearly 10% against the dollar for the year.

“Lack of verbal intervention so far suggests that the patience level of Japanese authorities may have gone up after the latest tweak to monetary policy and the disinflation trends in the United States,” said Charu Chanana, a market strategist at Saxo Markets.

“Still, traders are potentially cautious of that 145 handle and some profit taking is possible, suggesting the move above 145 will likely remain a slower crawl.”

With the yen loitering around the level again, traders expect Japanese officials to start warning of intervention soon as they did in June.

“We believe the MOF will start pushing back in the 145-148 range,” said Joey Chew, head of Asia FX research at HSBC. “But if it does not, short positions on the yen will likely be rebuilt further.”

Investors currently hold a short position in the yen worth USD 7.25 billion, down 30% from a 14-month high last month.

Analysts said GDP and CPI data in Japan due this week are likely to be key along with US retail sales data which could continue to push Treasury yields higher.

Treasury yields have been elevated and got another boost on Friday after data showed US producer prices increased slightly in July, more than expected, as the cost of services rebounded at the fastest pace in nearly a year.

That comes after news on Thursday that consumer prices rose moderately in July. The PPI data cast some doubt on whether the Federal Reserve is done with its rate hike cycle.

Markets anticipate nearly 89% chance of the Federal Reserve standing pat on interest rates at its meeting next month, the CME FedWatch tool showed, with traders anticipating no more hikes for the rest of the year.

Central bank officials, though, have maintained that it is too soon to make that call.

ANZ analysts said the resilience of the US consumer will be in the spotlight with the release of July retail sales data, with rising fuel prices and tighter credit conditions expected to bite.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six peers, rose 0.097% to 102.95, having touched a more than one month high of 103.02

The euro was down 0.12% to USD 1.0931, while sterling eased 0.15% to USD 1.2675.

The Australian dollar fell 0.42% to USD 0.6470, while the kiwi slipped 0.36% to USD 0.5963. Both Antipodean currencies slid to their lowest since November earlier in the session. The currencies have been undermined by disappointing trade and inflation data from China, the biggest buyer of their resource exports.

While sentiment towards China is down, this week’s high-frequency China data may only need a small beat to cause a strong upside reaction in China proxies, said Pepperstone’s Head of Research Chris Weston.

(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore. Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Lincoln Feast.)

US recap: Dollar up for fourth-straight week led by yen’s fall

Aug 11 – The dollar managed a modest gain on Friday as Treasury yields from 2- to 10-year tenors surged 7-10bps on waning expectations for eventual Fed cuts and concerns inflation will not dissipate as quickly as hoped.

The dollar index is probing key resistance that has confounded a breakout toward June’s highs this month.

Treasury yields are also biased higher on the risk US fiscal imbalances will increase. That after the recent Fitch downgrade of US debt and a surprise surge in how much the government says it will need to borrow.

Treasury yields rose on Thursday and Friday after seemingly sedate US CPI and modestly higher PPI, along with slightly softer Michigan sentiment. Consumers’ 1-year inflation expectations fell 0.1% again to 3.3%. Normally this data would not be greeted with sharply higher Treasury yields.

EUR/USD fell 0.3% and is nearing the 55-day moving average that caught August’s prior slides, now by 1.0940. Bund yields were also sharply higher, but risk aversion in European and Chinese markets favored the dollar.

USD/JPY rose modestly, but its uptrend is so far stymied by June’s 2023 high at 145.07 and worries Japan’s MoF may want to keep the yen from falling below 145 again; a level it previously defended.

Actual FX intervention looks less likely near current levels given the sharp drop in Japan CPI from December’s 10.2% peak.

Sterling rose 0.12%, but was well off Friday’s highs scored after above-forecast UK GDP sent gilt yields skyward, including a roughly 20bp surge in 10-year yields. Pricing in of two more 25bp BoE hikes became embedded from December through June.

The downside for the pound is that higher for longer rates and yields are headwinds for the economy.

USD/CNH rose 0.22% on imploding Chinese bank loans, that as the government looks to patch local government financing holes.

AUD/USD fell 0.25% to its lowest since June 1.

Tuesday’s US retail sales are the next major release.

(Editing by Terence Gabriel; Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Gold set for third weekly fall on stronger US dollar, yields

Aug 11 – Gold prices hovered near a one-month low on Friday and were heading for their third consecutive weekly dip, as the dollar and bond yields strengthened after data showed US producer prices increased in July.

After dropping to its lowest level since July 7 earlier in the session, spot gold was little changed at USD 1,913.35 per ounce by 1:41 p.m. ET (1741 GMT). Bullion was down 1.4% so far this week.

US gold futures settled 0.1% lower at USD 1,946.60.

“The producer price index came a bit hotter than expected, that pushed up Treasury bond yields and boosted the US dollar index a little bit. So that put a little bit of pressure on the gold market,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco.

“We’re also seeing technical selling in both gold and silver because the charts have turned more near-term bearish in the past couple of weeks.”

The US producer price index for final demand rose 0.3% last month, the Labor Department said. In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 0.8%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI would climb 0.2% for the month and advance 0.7% on a year-on-year basis.

The dollar gained 0.3% against its rivals and was on track for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, making gold more expensive for other currency holders. Benchmark 10-year yields also gained for the fourth straight week.

On Thursday, data showed US consumer prices increased moderately in July, lifting hopes that the Federal Reserve is at the end of its interest rate hike cycle.

Rising US interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Spot silver slipped 0.1% to USD 22.66 an ounce and platinum gained 0.4% to USD 910.06. Both were on track for their fourth consecutive week of losses.

Palladium rose 0.9% to USD 1,298.19 per ounce.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Sherin Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri, Shilpi Majumdar, and Shounak Dasgupta)

Bond market’s newfound economic optimism may be shortsighted

Aug 11 – In recent weeks, US bond markets have bought into the prospect of a “soft landing,” prompting some investors to question whether they are ignoring the risk that companies will run into trouble in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.

Corporate credit spreads, which indicate the premium investors require to hold companies’ bonds over safer government paper, have tightened in a sign that investors have come to believe the US Federal Reserve will manage to bring down inflation without causing too much economic pain.

Some analysts and bankers said that optimism might be ill-advised. Curbing inflationary pressures could take time and lead the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer than investors believe. That, in turn, could still cause a recession and hurt corporate balance sheets.

“People might be capitulating on the recession call too soon,” said Cindy Beaulieu, managing director and portfolio manager at Conning, which manages USD 205 billion.

Edward Marrinan, macro credit strategy desk analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities America, added: “Credit risk at this point is mispriced.”

Fixed income markets are expecting a perfect landing, but they may instead be in for more turbulence ahead. Investors got a taste of what that can mean on Aug. 7 when Moody’s downgraded several banks, citing the possibility of a mild recession and commercial real estate risks. The move prompted a sell-off in equities and a slight widening in corporate credit spreads.

But the lesson was short-lived. Investors recovered from that dent to sentiment after labor and inflation data on Thursday came in line with expectations, spurring hopes the Fed will not hike rates again in September.

The average investment-grade bond spreads as of Thursday were just a few basis points wider than the tightest levels touched this year in July and 16 basis points tighter from January. Junk-bond spreads are 98 basis points inside January levels.

Daniel Krieter, credit strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said the reason for the sanguine view in credit markets was a sense that corporate fundamentals look better so far this year than expected and bets to the contrary may be too expensive.

“It is far more expensive to keep betting against what you can see for now rather than relying on what you cannot,” Krieter said.

HIGH YIELDS

SMBC’s Marrinan said the safer trade for investors would be to reduce risk and buy higher-quality bonds of companies that have financial resilience in a difficult economic environment.

But that’s a hard call to make with corporate bonds offering high yields as a consequence of the sharp increases in US interest rates, and corporate fundamentals turning out to be better than expected after the latest quarterly earnings.

The rate of defaults for junk bonds, the riskiest form of US debt, in the broad US high-yield index, stood at around 1% this year, much lower than expectations of 5% to 8% at the beginning of the year, said Manuel Hayes, senior portfolio manager at London-based asset manager Insight Investment.

“Default rates even in the worst-case scenario of a prolonged high rate environment are now expected to tick up to about 2-3% with a lot of this risk priced in already,” Hayes said.

Refinancing needs are also expected to pick up in two to three years, he said, reducing the risk of a near-term wave of debt defaults.

The spreads on junk bonds rated CCC or those prone to bankruptcies or payment defaults have tightened 267 basis points this year, more than the 98 basis points tightening in spreads of better quality BB-rated junk bonds, according to Informa Global Markets data.

“With market consensus now expecting a soft landing, the credit markets are arguably underpricing default risk,” BMO’s Krieter said. “It begs the question whether credit should be priced to perfection for a soft landing as it is currently.”

(Reporting by Shankar Ramakrishnan and Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Paritosh Bansal and Jonathan Oatis)

US equity funds record biggest weekly outflow in seven weeks

Aug 11 – US equity funds saw heavy outflows in the seven days to Aug. 9 amid investor caution ahead of the US inflation data and concerns over credit rating downgrades in the banking sector.

According to Refinitiv Lipper data, investors withdrew about USD 14.96 billion from US equity funds during the week, their biggest week of net selling since June 21.

Wall Street stocks posted big losses last week, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq registering their biggest weekly declines since March as investors took profits after five months of gains.

Also tempering investor appetite, credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded 10 small- to mid-sized US lenders on Monday and placed another six banks on review for potential downgrades.

Investors sold out of US large-, mid-, and multi-cap funds to the tune of USD 14.95 billion, USD 543 million and USD 261 million, respectively, but small-cap funds still drew about USD 748 million in inflows.

By sector, materials, financials, and tech saw net sales of USD 891 million, USD 554 million, and USD 524 million, respectively. Meanwhile, healthcare funds received USD 1.39 billion, the most in a week since March 2022.

Meanwhile, US money market funds and government bond funds attracted USD 40.88 billion and USD 4.48 billion, respectively, as investors hunted for safety.

On a combined net basis, US bond funds received USD 3.99 billion in inflows, compared with about USD 938 million of outflow in the previous week.

US general domestic taxable fixed income and short/intermediate investment-grade funds received about USD 800 million each in inflows. On the other hand, high yield and loan participation funds saw net sales of USD 565 million and USD 419 million, respectively.

(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathyin Bengaluru; Editing by Mark Potter)

Dollar set for fourth week of gains, inflation cements rate outlook

LONDON, Aug 11 – The dollar headed for a fourth weekly gain on Friday after data showed US inflation did not pick up as strongly as expected in July, which helped reinforce the existing view among investors that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates much more.

The stronger dollar put the Japanese yen on course to test a key support level, though liquidity was thin with Japan on holiday on Friday.

The yen was flat at 144.72 per dollar in early Asian hours, having earlier traded at 144.89, its weakest since June 30, when it briefly breached 145, a level at which investors think the Bank of Japan might intervene.

“You should expect the rhetoric once yen gets to 145,” said Bank of Singapore currency strategist Moh Siong Sim. “I think the market will get a lot more careful as we get to that level.”

Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, which prompted the Ministry of Finance to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen. The yen is down over 9% against the dollar for the year.

The yen was also lower against the euro at 158.98 per euro, which hit a 15-year peak of 159.19 on Thursday.

Meanwhile, sterling rose for the first time in four days after data showed the British economy grew more than expected in June, allaying some concern about the impact of high inflation and high rates on activity.

The pound was last up 0.3% at USD 1.2711, but was still heading for a fourth weekly drop.

Data on Thursday showed US consumer inflation rose 0.2% last month, matching the gain in June, and by 3.2% in the 12 months through July.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a monthly rise of 0.2% last month and a year-on-year gain of 3.3%.

Futures traders place a near-90% chance of the Fed leaving its benchmark interest rate in its current range of 5.25-5.5% when it meets in September. Prior to the inflation data, that chance was already above 85%.

“(The) CPI report appears to put another nail in the coffin for the prospects of further Fed rate hikes this year,” said Nick Rees, FX market analyst at Monex Europe.

Moderating inflation, together with an easing labour market, has bolstered economists’ conviction that the US central bank will be able to engineer a “soft landing” for the economy.

Fed officials have expressed more caution. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Thursday it was premature to suggest the central bank had finished raising rates.

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, fell 0.1% to 102.50, but was still set for a fourth weekly gain, thanks in part to a rise in Treasury yields.

The dollar fell against the euro , which rose 0.1% to USD 1.0995 and against the Australian dollar, which rose 0.14% to USD 0652.

The Aussie dollar still headed for a fourth straight weekly loss even though the head of the central bank said domestic rates may have to rise further, even if inflation is coming down as expected.

(Additional reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore
Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Simon Cameron-Moore and David Evans)

Gold stays near 1-month lows as US dollar, yields hold ground

Aug 11 – Gold prices held near one-month lows on Friday, shrugging off cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation figures for last month, with bullion staying on course to wrap up its worst week in seven as the U.S. dollar and bond yields stood strong.

Spot gold edged 0.2% higher to USD 1,916.53 per ounce by 0727 GMT, but traded near its lowest level since July 7 touched earlier in the day. US gold futures GCcv1 were steady at USD 1,948.80.

Gold gained as much as 0.8% on Thursday after data showed the US consumer price index (CPI) climbed less than expected in July, raising bets that the Fed will unlikely hike interest rates again in 2023.

Interest rate increases tend to lift bond yields and in turn raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

“Once the CPI dust had settled, markets seemed to remember that core CPI at 4.7% is still not great – even if it was slower than expected,” said Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at City Index, adding that gold’s move higher lacked conviction.

“We also had Fed member Mary Daly putting a fly in the dovish ointment, saying whether another hold or hike at the Fed’s next meeting is ‘yet to be determined’. And that saw the U.S. dollar regain its strength.”

Gold prices have slid about 1.3% so far in the week as the U.S. dollar index and benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yields were on track for their fourth consecutive weekly gain.

Moderating inflation and strong labour data present an ideal macroeconomic balance, pushing out the possibility of a hard landing, which diminishes safe-haven flows for gold and also supports a higher-for-longer rates scenario, ANZ analysts wrote in a note.

Spot silver rose 0.2% to $22.72 an ounce and platinum added 0.6% to USD 912.04. Still, both were on track for their fourth straight weekly loss.

Palladium was up 0.3% at USD 1,290.43, eyeing its best week since mid-June.

(Reporting by Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Subhranshu Sahu)

Oil up on record demand forecast, 7th straight weekly gain

BENGALURU, Aug 11 – Oil prices edged higher on Friday after the International Energy Agency forecast record global demand and tightening supplies, propelling prices to the seventh straight week of gains, the longest such streak since 2022.

Brent crude futures rose 41 cents, or 0.5%, to settle USD 86.81 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 37 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at USD 83.19. On a weekly basis, both benchmarks rose about 0.5%.

The IEA estimated that global oil demand hit a record 103 million barrels per day in June and could scale another peak this month.

Meanwhile, output cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia set the stage for a sharp decline in inventories over the rest of 2023, which IEA said could drive oil prices even higher.

On Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said it expects global oil demand to rise by 2.44 million bpd this year, unchanged from its previous forecast. Prospects for the oil market look healthy for the second half of the year, OPEC said.

US economic data this week also lifted market sentiment, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of aggressive rate hikes.

Supply cuts and an improving economic outlook have created more optimism among oil investors, OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said. However, he noted signs momentum was wearing thin after a sustained rally. On Thursday, Brent hit its highest since January, a day after WTI hit its highest this year.

The last time that Brent rose for seven straight weeks was in January-February 2022, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

After falling for eight weeks in a row, the number of oil rigs operating in the US, an early indicator of future output, held steady at 525 this week, energy services firm Baker Hughes said.

The steady oil rig count indicates US producers are maintaining discipline about drilling and exploration, said Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer at US Bank Asset Management.

“The oil price keeps going higher but not as many companies are out looking for oil,” he said.

Mixed economic data from China weighed on sentiment this week. While customs data showed crude imports up year on year, China’s overall exports plunged 14.5% in July, with monthly crude imports retreating from June’s near-record highs to their lowest level since January.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan; Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar and Andrew Hayley; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle, Marguerita Choy, Cynthia Osterman, and David Gregorio)

US CPI smile fades, it’s raining yen

Aug 11 – Markets are betting that the Fed’s most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in more than 40 years is over. But now what?

Wall Street initially gave a huge thumbs up to US inflation data that showed some measures of underlying price pressures cooled significantly last month, prompting rates futures markets to call an end to the Fed’s tightening cycle.

But the early gains of more than 1% evaporated as longer-dated Treasury yields started to climb again, and the three main indexes closed the day flat to 0.15% higher. Asian markets, therefore, look set to open on Friday with a more subdued tone.

Investors in Asia will also have the yen on their radar – the Japanese currency slid to a 15-year low against the euro on Thursday and fell towards 145.00 per dollar, around where Japanese authorities intervened heavily last year.

The loss of bullish momentum on Wall Street on Thursday as the session progressed and renewed ‘bear steepening’ of the US yield curve will unnerve some investors.

The short end of the bond market was a bit more stable, reflecting the view that the Fed is done raising rates. Fed fund futures pricing shows a rate hike next month is off the table completely, and only a 20% chance of another hike by year-end.

Breakeven inflation rates fell too, generally backing up that dovish view. But the long end of the Treasury curve sold off pretty aggressively once again, and rising long-term yields will do little to support risk appetite, far less boost it.

Other notable market moves on Thursday include oil. WTI and Brent crude closed down 1.7% and 1.3%, respectively, meaning US crude futures now may not register a seventh straight weekly gain, which would mark the best run since May last year.

Currency traders will be on Japanese intervention alert after the yen’s latest slump. The dollar is nudging 145.00 yen, around where the Bank of Japan spent record yen-buying sums late last year as the yen hurtled to a 33-year low.

Elsewhere in FX, India’s rupee had its best day in a month on Thursday, moving further away from recent all-time lows on the back of reported intervention from the central bank.

The Reserve Bank of India earlier on Thursday held interest rates steady but signaled it will reduce the amount of cash in the banking system to counter inflationary pressures from high food prices.

Industrial production data from India on Friday is expected to show that output in June rose 5.0% year on year, slowing slightly from the 5.2% growth in May.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

– Hong Kong GDP (Q2)

– India industrial production (June)

– UK GDP (Q2, prelim)

(By Jamie McGeever; editing by Deepa Babington)

Market strikes it right on peak Fed … finally: McGeever

ORLANDO, Florida, Aug 10 – Markets are betting that the Fed’s interest rate-hiking cycle is over, and the latest US inflation data suggests this time they may be right.

If housing cost pressures start to ease more in the coming months, as many economists expect, then the Federal Reserve is almost certainly done.

Markets have been “fighting the Fed” for over a year, betting that policy will soon be loosened as the economy lurches toward a recession that still seems nowhere near materializing, while the Fed has relentlessly raised rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

Traders have been dragged up the rate-hiking hill kicking and screaming, but after the release of July’s inflation figures on Thursday, they now feel they are at the top.

A potential quarter-point hike next month has been taken off the table completely and the chances of a rate hike by the end of the year stand at only 20%, according to fed funds futures.

Headline annual consumer price inflation rose a little less than expected last month to 3.2%, and annual core inflation cooled slightly to 4.7%, as forecast. Both remain well above the Fed’s 2% goal.

But several underlying measures and rolling averages of the last few months show that inflation, by these metrics at least, is back at pre-pandemic levels and closing in on target.

Key to this is “shelter” – essentially housing costs comprising rent and owners’ equivalent rent – which accounted for more than 90% of the total 3.2% increase in headline CPI last month.

Strip out shelter, and “inflation is basically gone,” according to RealPage housing economist Jay Parsons.

“Rent is the most important variable in the CPI’s largest component, which is shelter. And we know where shelter costs are going. Lower,” Parsons added.

Shelter inflation is running at a 7.7% annual rate and has been far stickier than policymakers would have liked. But Parsons reckons lag effects will soon be bringing shelter inflation down more quickly.

Economists and traders focus closely on the shelter component of CPI because one of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s favorite inflation gauges is core services inflation minus shelter.

Phil Suttle, founder of consultancy Suttle Economics, notes that the so-called “super-core” inflation measure of services less shelter and energy is now running at a three-month rolling annual rate of only 2.4%.

Julia Coronado, founder of research firm Macropolicy Perspectives, notes that annual headline inflation on a three-month rolling basis is just 1.9%, and Andreas Steno Larsen, CEO at Steno Research, says inflation excluding shelter on an annualized quarter-on-quarter basis “is basically gone.”

The following charts make that case. Traders are betting that Powell and his colleagues are paying close attention.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

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