China crisis

Aug 16 – The word ‘crisis’ should always be used responsibly and judiciously when covering financial markets, business, and economics, but are we at that point now with China?

Developments in the last 24 hours from the world’s second-largest economy – another string of top-tier data ‘misses’, a shock interest rate cut and an abrupt announcement that (record high) youth unemployment data will no longer be published – suggest we might be.

The deepening concern around China’s economy, policy options, and financial markets will weigh heavily on Asian investor sentiment on Wednesday, with an interest rate decision from New Zealand and the latest manufacturing and service sector ‘tankan’ surveys from Japan also on tap.

It’s not all doom and gloom in Asia – Japan’s economy grew twice as fast in the second quarter as economists had expected – but China’s travails are front and center right now.

Perhaps even more worrying for investors than the misses on investment, industrial production and retail sales, or the surprise rate cut, was Beijing’s decision to suspend the publication of youth unemployment figures for an unspecified length of time.

The official rate in June was a record 21.3%. That’s bad enough, but in an online post last month – since removed – Peking University professor Zhang Dandan estimated it could be closer to 50%.

The latest snapshot of Chinese house prices will be released on Wednesday, and again, another weak report could be in store, with the country’s property sector in a genuine state of crisis.

JP Morgan on Tuesday said if developer Country Garden suffers a full-scale default, it will more than double China’s year-to-date property default tally to USD 17 billion, adding to the USD 100 billion racked up over the past two and a half years.

The People’s Bank of China may have finally pulled the interest rate lever, but it had the expected impact of slamming the exchange rate. The offshore yuan tumbled through 7.30 per dollar to its weakest level this year and is now flirting with November’s historic low of around 7.35 per dollar.

Compare and contrast China with Japan, as per Tuesday’s bumper Q2 GDP data, and the US, where figures on Tuesday showed a surge in retail sales. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is projecting annualized Q3 growth of 5.0%.

Global stocks, Wall Street, and emerging markets all buckled on Tuesday under the weight of rising bond yields, ‘higher for longer’ Fed rate expectations, and a buoyant dollar.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index fell for a fourth day and has now only risen twice in the last 11 sessions. Among the biggest losers in Asia on Tuesday was Hong Kong’s mainland property index, which fell 1% to take its year-to-date decline to 16%.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– New Zealand interest rate decision

– China house prices (July)

– Japan tankan surveys (August)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

Yields briefly pop to nearly 10-month highs after strong US retail sales

NEW YORK, Aug 15 – Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields hit an almost 10-month high on Tuesday before quickly dipping, after data showed July retail sales rose more than expected.

Retail sales jumped 0.7% last month, above the 0.4% forecast. June data was revised higher to show sales rising 0.3% instead of the previously reported 0.2%.

Americans boosted online purchases and dined out more, suggesting the US economy continues to expand and putting recession fears at bay. Resilient US data has also boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates higher for longer to bring inflation down closer to its 2% annual target.

Markets have priced in “a considerably higher probability that we stay around the current terminal rate for a longer period than was previously expected,” said Jonathan Cohn, head of US rates desk strategy at Nomura in New York.

Benchmark 10-year yields hit 4.274%, the highest since Oct. 24, before settling at 4.215% in afternoon trading.

Two-year yields reached 5.024%, the highest since July 7, before retreating to 4.952%. The interest rate-sensitive notes are holding below the 5.120% yield reached on July 6, the highest since June 2007.

The inversion in the closely watched yield curve between two- and 10-year notes narrowed to minus 74 basis points.

The Fed will release minutes from its July 25-26 meeting on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 24-26 could also deliver clarity on Fed thinking.

Futures markets are now pricing in a nearly 35% chance that the Fed’s benchmark rate will be above its current range at its December meeting, up from a roughly 25% chance seen a month ago.

The market is evaluating “how far the sell-off can run” before the Fed releases minutes of its previous meeting Thursday afternoon, said Benjamin Jeffery, US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

August 15 Tuesday 4:00PM New York / 2000 GMT

	Price	Current Yield %	Net Change (bps)
Three-month bills	5.29	5.4519	0.010
Six-month bills	5.28	5.5152	-0.019
Two-year note	99-162/256	4.948	-0.017
Three-year note	99-64/256	4.6459	0.003
Five-year note	98-236/256	4.3689	0.014
Seven-year note	98-32/256	4.3146	0.027
10-year note	97-64/256	4.2149	0.033
20-year bond	91-208/256	4.505	0.046
30-year bond	96-168/256	4.325	0.044

DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS
	Last (bps)	Net Change (bps)
US 2-year dollar swap spread	0.00	0.00
US 3-year dollar swap spread	0.00	0.00
US 5-year dollar swap spread	0.00	0.00
US 10-year dollar swap spread	0.00	0.00
US 30-year dollar swap spread	0.00	0.00

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Richard Chang and Jonathan Oatis)

US bank stocks fall on prospect of tougher oversight, more downgrades

Aug 15 – Shares of US banks dropped on Tuesday as the prospect of tighter regulations and a possible downgrade of several lenders by Fitch Ratings raised investor concerns over the health of the sector.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Martin Gruenberg said in a speech on Monday that the agency planned to propose new rules to overhaul how large regional banks prepare “living wills” – detailed plans on how they would wind up their businesses should they fail.

The rules are part of sweeping changes US regulators are aiming to introduce to tighten oversight of the banking system following the collapse of several lenders in March.

A Fitch Ratings analyst warned that the agency could downgrade several large US banks, weeks after rival Moody’s cut the ratings of 10 mid-sized lenders, citing funding risks and weaker profitability.

The S&P 500 banking index was down 2.5%, hitting its lowest in a month, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) falling nearly 4%. Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Citigroup (C), and Morgan Stanley (MS) declined between 1.7% and 2.1%.

“We kind of knew some of this was coming and the downgrades are reflective of stuff the market has already digested and taken into consideration,” said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager and lead strategist at Natixis Investment Managers.

“It’s just a reflection of the general sentiment,” Janasiewicz added.

Among the mid-sized banks, Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) and PacWest Bancorp (PACW) were down more than 3%, respectively. Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management disclosed on Monday that it had sold its stake in both banks. Comerica (CMA) and KeyCorp (KEY) were also among the losers, dropping more than 4% each.

Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields hit an almost 10-month high at 4.274% on Tuesday before quickly dipping, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve could hold rates for longer.

Bank depositors will probably watch whether higher rates could put further pressure on small and regional banks, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.

(Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru and Chibuike Oguh in New York; Additional reporting by Saeed Azhar in New York. Editing by Arun Koyyur, Sriraj Kalluvila, and Tomasz Janowski)

Japan’s policymakers hold fire as yen enters intervention range

TOKYO, Aug 15 – As the yen slid past 145 per dollar with barely a murmur from Japanese policymakers during recent days, suspicion grew that they won’t be as quick to order intervention as they were last year as they now reap some benefits from a weaker currency.

Surging exports helped economic growth hit 6% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, and lower global oil prices have helped keep a lid on the import bill.

But a key factor behind the yen’s weakness is unchanged, namely the yawning yield gap with the United States. The Bank of Japan is taking baby steps away from its ultra-loose monetary policy, and there are increasing hopes that US rates may have peaked, but as of now, the bond market provides a good reason to sell yen.

Yet currency traders remain nervous about provoking intervention, as the yen entered the same zone that triggered heavy dollar selling by Japanese authorities in September and October of last year.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki issued a reminder on Tuesday against causing volatility in the exchange rate, as the yen struck a 9/1-2 month low of 145.60 in Asian trading.

Suzuki warned that rapid moves are “undesirable” and the government is “ready to respond appropriately,” while reiterating that no specific levels are targeted for intervention.

Officials had been a lot more vociferous in June when the yen weakened past 144, and their subdued response to the latest depreciation was interpreted by market participants as a sign that Tokyo will tolerate a bit more weakness so long as speculators didn’t push it too fast.

“The pain associated with the 145-150 level is less now for the economy, so I don’t think they’ll be quite as aggressive as they were last year,” said Aaron Hurd, a senior portfolio manager at State Street Global Advisors in Boston.

If the uptrend for the dollar-yen rate is gradual, intervention isn’t likely until “around 150 or a little bit above,” he said.

For now, traders are testing the waters by selling the yen against sterling and the Swiss franc, mindful that selling against the dollar could gather momentum quickly.

NO IMPERATIVE TILL 150

Japan spent more than 9 trillion yen (USD 62 billion) intervening in currency markets last year to arrest the yen’s decline, buying yen in September and October – first at levels around 145 and again at a 32-year low just short of 152.

At the end of August last year, the price of Brent crude oil was about USD 105 per barrel, and complaints about the pain from imported energy prices were in the Japanese press on a daily basis.

“Not only economically, but also politically, yen weakness at that time was a problem, and it clearly impacted the government’s approval rating,” said Masayuki Kichikawa, chief macro strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management in Tokyo.

The price of Brent is now around USD 88, and those complaints over imported fuel have faded into memory.

From a purely macroeconomic perspective, Kichikawa said, officials have no imperative to prevent yen weakness before 150, which is consistent with the mild inflationary pressure that the BOJ aims to foster.

The bond market, which precipitated the yen’s slide, may ultimately give Japan’s authorities reason to hold off on pressing the intervention button.

Should the lynchpin 10-year US Treasury yield stabilize not far above 4%, and Japanese yields rise towards the BOJ’s new 1% cap, Japanese authorities may be inclined to let market forces perform a gradual recovery in the yen as the yield gap closes.

“The policy divergence story is going to turn, if it hasn’t already,” said Shinichiro Kadota, a currency strategist at Barclays in Tokyo. “The risk of intervention definitely increases above 145, but the urgency is less.”

(USD 1 = 145.4900 yen)

(Reporting by Kevin Buckland and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)

FTSE 100 opens lower as stronger pound weighs

Aug 15 – The UK’s exporter-heavy FTSE 100 index opened lower on Tuesday, dragged down by a stronger sterling after a record-high wage growth spurred worries of inflationary pressures, while retailer Marks & Spencer led mid-cap stocks higher.

British wages excluding bonuses were a record 7.8% higher than a year earlier in the three months to June, adding to worries for the Bank of England about long-term inflation, which could keep interest rates elevated for longer.

The benchmark FTSE 100 index was down 0.2%, while the pound rose as much as 0.28% to USD 1.2720, right after the data.

Mid-cap stocks rose 0.1%, with British retailer Marks & Spencer jumping more than 8%.

M&S raised its profit outlook, saying it was continuing to win market share in both its clothing, home and food businesses.

Retailers’ stocks rallied over 1%, leading sectoral gains.

(Reporting by Siddarth S in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

Oil drops over 1% on worries about Chinese economy

NEW YORK, Aug 15 – Oil prices fell over 1% on Tuesday on sluggish Chinese economic data coupled with fears that Beijing’s unexpected cut in key policy rates was not sufficiently substantial to rejuvenate the country’s sputtering post-pandemic recovery.

Brent crude futures fell USD 1.32, or 1.5%, to settle at USD 84.89 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) dropped USD 1.52, or 1.8% to USD 80.99.

Supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, part of the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, have helped to galvanize a rally in prices over the past seven weeks.

Both Brent and WTI, however, have fallen for two consecutive sessions as the oil market takes a breath, said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

Weighing on sentiment, China’s industrial output and retail sales data showed the economy slowed further last month, intensifying pressure on already faltering growth and prompting authorities to cut key policy rates to bolster economic activity.

When the oil market appears to be comfortable, it is often the case that China is the number one fire douser, throwing a wet blanket over those dreaming of prices north of USD 90, said John Evans of oil broker PVM. China is the world’s biggest oil importer.

China’s central bank lowered interest rates marginally after the data that highlighted intensifying pressure on the economy, mainly from the property sector, though analysts say the cut was too small to make a meaningful difference.

There are concerns China could struggle to meet its growth target of about 5% for the year without more fiscal stimulus.

Barclays cut its forecast for China’s 2023 growth in gross domestic product to 4.5%, citing a faster-than-expected deterioration in the housing market.

Also adding to risk-off sentiment, an analyst at Fitch Ratings warned that US banks, including JPMorgan Chase JPM.N, could be downgraded if the agency further cuts its assessment of the operating environment for the industry, according to a report from CNBC.

“When the banking sector is shaky, oil gets shakier because it is so sensitive to interest rates, loans and the general health of the economy,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

On a brighter note, refinery throughput in China rose in July 17.4% from a year earlier as refiners kept output elevated to meet demand for domestic summer travel and to cash in on high regional profit margins by exporting fuel.

In US supply, crude stocks dropped by about 6.2 million barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures released late Tuesday.

Ahead of weekly government data due on Wednesday, analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 2.3 million barrels last week.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly; additional reporting by Natalie Grover, Muyu Xu, and Katya Golubkova; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Deepa Babington)

China data deluge as EM turmoil deepens

Aug 15 – As waves of volatility crashed over emerging markets on Monday, most notably in Argentina and Russia, the focus on Tuesday once again returns to the root of much of the deeper anxiety and uncertainty around EM: China.

Investment, retail sales, unemployment, and industrial production figures for July will be released against a worrisome backdrop of deflation, slowing growth, market weakness, and growing contagion risks from an imploding property sector.

As if that were not enough for Asian markets on Tuesday, minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last policy meeting, Australian wage growth data, and second-quarter GDP growth figures from Japan will also be released.

Currency markets are also on intervention watch from Japanese authorities, with the yen falling through the 145 per dollar area and anchored around its weakest level against the euro since 2008.

If recent Chinese economic numbers are any guide, the latest batch on Tuesday is liable to disappoint. Reuters polls of economists suggest annual growth in investment and industrial output will remain steady from June’s levels, while retail sales growth will rise to 4.5% from 3.1%.

Authorities have so far resisted the growing clamor for large-scale fiscal or monetary stimulus. One of the reasons is the currency – it is already extremely weak and investors are shunning Chinese assets. Beijing will not want to add fuel to either fire.

The offshore yuan slumped on Monday to its lowest level this year, approaching the 7.30 per dollar mark, and the yuan’s official onshore exchange rate is the weakest in a month.

Tuesday’s data dump comes a day before the central bank delivers its latest monthly monetary policy decision. A Reuters survey of economists says rates on the bank’s medium-term policy loans will be left unchanged, although another round of notably weak economic indicators could shift the dial.

Some investors are slashing their exposure to China. Regulatory filings show that some major US-based hedge funds cut their holdings of Chinese companies in the second quarter.

China’s blue-chip CSI 300 index slipped 0.7% on Monday, following Friday’s 2.3% slide – the biggest fall since October – contributing to weakness across the continent and the EM complex.

MSCI’s Emerging Market and Asia ex-Japan indices both fell 1.3% on Monday, following 1% falls on Friday. With the US dollar and US Treasury yields marching higher, global financial conditions are tightening and there doesn’t appear to be any respite for emerging markets on the immediate horizon.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

– China retail sales, unemployment, investment, industrial production (July)

– RBA minutes

– Japan Q2 GDP

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

Dollar jumps, oil slides on China worries

WASHINGTON, Aug 14 – The US dollar hit its highest levels in more than a month on Monday amid worries over China’s economy, while Wall Street struggled for any clear picture ahead of fresh data on consumer appetite.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of six currencies, was last up 0.28% at 103.133, after hitting its highest level since July 7.

The dollar surged on news that China’s new bank loans tumbled in July even as policymakers cut interest rates. Investors also feared trouble at the nation’s largest private property developer, Country Garden 2007, could have a chilling effect on home buyers and financial institutions.

Country Garden’s shares plunged 18% to a record low on Monday after its onshore bonds were suspended for the first time.

Meanwhile, two Chinese listed companies said over the weekend they had not received payment on maturing investment products from asset manager Zhongrong International Trust Co.

“A lot of traders are focusing again on China,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. “I think there’s so much concern with just their growth outlook, with their current property crisis, and I think one of the biggest wealth managers not being able to make (their) debt obligations is a big red flag.”

The three major US indexes were up slightly, as a 7% surge in chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) helped push megacap growth stocks higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 26.23 points, or 0.07%, to 35,307.63, the S&P 500 gained 25.67 points, or 0.58%, to 4,489.72 and the Nasdaq Composite added 143.48 points, or 1.05%, to 13,788.33.

The session began in the shadow of last week’s global equity sell-off, with the MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 45 nations, last down 0.12%.

Oil prices were down on Monday also on China worries, as concerns about the nation’s ability to bounce back to pre-pandemic levels outweighed gains previously posted on tighter supply.

Brent crude ended the day down 0.68% at USD 86.22 a barrel. US crude was down 0.87% at USD 82.47 per barrel.

Safe havens in the US also looked more appealing after voters in Argentina surprised markets by pushing a radical libertarian outsider candidate into first place, placing pressure on the country’s bonds.

In the aftermath, the country’s central bank planned to hike interest rates by 21 percentage points to 118% and devalued the nation’s currency until the nation’s formal October election.

The safe haven appetite drove up yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasury bonds to a nine-month high. Benchmark 10-year yields hit 4.215%, the highest since Nov. 8, before falling back to 4.186%.

Gains for the dollar and US Treasuries weighed on gold prices, which dipped to a more than one-month low on Monday. Spot gold prices were last down 0.36% at USD 1,906.20 an ounce.

Fresh economic data this week includes US retail sales on Tuesday. Consumers are forecast to show a 0.4% pickup in spending, but it could swing higher thanks in part to Amazon’s Prime Day. US retail giants are also due for quarterly reports this week.

A strong spending report could challenge the market’s benign outlook for US rates, with futures implying a 70% chance the Federal Reserve is done hiking in its bid to tame inflation. The market also has more than 120 basis points of cuts priced in for next year starting from around March.

(Reporting by Pete Schroeder in Washington, Wayne Cole in Sydney, and Alun John in London;
Editing by Richard Chang and Matthew Lewis)

US hedge funds stampede out of China in Q2

NEW YORK, Aug 14 – US-based hedge fund investors including Coatue, D1 Capital and Tiger Global cut their exposure to Chinese companies in the second quarter, as the country’s economic prospects seemed to wobble and geopolitical tension increased.

Tiger Global slashed its position in JD.com by roughly 12%, to USD 719.3 million from USD 1.1 billion, while also reducing its number of shares in Kanzhun.

Coatue Management LLC, founded by Philippe Laffont, formerly of Tiger Management, cut its positions in Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, Kanzhun, KE Holdings, Li Auto, and PDD Holdings, regulatory filings showed.

The hedge fund slashed its position in Alibaba by roughly 90% from March to June, filings showed.

D1 Capital Partners also dumped all its 1.7 million shares – or USD 176.8 million – in Alibaba, according to documents.

Louis Bacon’s Moore Capital Management sold over USD 200 million in shares of Alibaba, exiting its position in the company.

Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management sold small positions it had in both Alibaba and JD.com.

The funds did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Every quarter, institutional investors have to disclose their equity positions in so-called 13-F filings, but they do not provide any explanation for the positioning changes.

Although they are backward-looking, many investors scour them for trends.

The changes came as hopes for a post-COVID surge in growth deflated as data has shown an uneven recovery, while US-China geopolitical tensions also raised concern.

Worries have heated up in recent days, as the country’s largest private real estate developer, Country Garden, seeks to delay payment on a private onshore bond.

Meanwhile, last week US President Joe Biden announced an executive order to prohibit some US technology investments in China, sparking concerns among fund managers.

Amid those uncertainties, China-focused mutual funds also suffered a net outflow of USD 674 million in the second quarter.

At the end of July, hedge funds’ exposure to China was well below five-year averages, Goldman Sachs showed.

(Reporting by Carolina Mandl, in New York; Editing by Alison Williams and Cynthia Osterman)

Higher US dollar drags gold to more than one-month low

Aug 14 – Gold prices fell to a more than one-month low on Monday as a stronger dollar took the shine off bullion, while investors awaited fresh catalysts to gauge the downside after mixed US inflation numbers last week.

Spot gold was down 0.3% at USD 1,907.40 per ounce by 02:47 p.m. EDT (1847 GMT), after hitting its lowest since July 6. US gold futures settled 0.1% lower at USD 1,944.00.

The dollar jumped 0.3% to its highest level in over a month, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for overseas buyers, while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit a nine-month high on Monday.

“We continue to see a pretty significant decline in long exposure in gold and a significant increase in short exposure. Speculative investors are getting out of gold and interest rate expectations are a big factor here,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

“Technically gold can move below the USD 1,900 levels here without a lot of problems. We’ve reached recent support levels and the path is quite open for gold to trend lower as short-term interest rates move higher.”

Last week, data showed US consumer prices increased moderately in July. However, producer prices rose slightly more than expected, fuelling concerns that the Federal Reserve could keep rates higher for longer.

Interest rate increases tend to lift bond yields and also raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell to the lowest level since January 2020.

The focus this week will be on US retail sales data on Tuesday, followed by the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July meeting on Wednesday that could shed light on the appetite for higher rates.

Elsewhere, silver fell 0.4% to USD 22.57 per ounce. Platinum dropped 1.4% to USD 899.51, while palladium shed 2.4% to USD 1,262.47.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Nick Macfie, Sharon Singleton, and Shilpi Majumdar)

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Archives: Reuters Articles

China crisis

Yields briefly pop to nearly 10-month highs after strong US retail sales

US bank stocks fall on prospect of tougher oversight, more downgrades

Japan’s policymakers hold fire as yen enters intervention range

FTSE 100 opens lower as stronger pound weighs

Oil drops over 1% on worries about Chinese economy

China data deluge as EM turmoil deepens

Dollar jumps, oil slides on China worries

US hedge funds stampede out of China in Q2

Higher US dollar drags gold to more than one-month low

2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle

Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work

Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning

Inflation Update: Weak demand softens shocks

Monthly Economic Update: Fed cuts incoming

Consensus Pricing – June 2025

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