China’s property firms rally after Beijing pledges economic support

HONG KONG – Investors piled into Chinese property developers’ shares and bonds on Tuesday following a sharp selloff in the previous session, after policymakers said they would step up support for the embattled sector.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index jumped 12%, while the CSI 300 Real Estate benchmark gained over 7%.

Property giant Country Garden and its management unit Country Garden Services, both listed in Hong Kong, rebounded 15% and 22%, respectively, after shedding nearly 9% and 18% on Monday.

Country Garden’s May 2025 dollar bond firmed to 21.675 cents on the dollar, versus 15 cents on Monday evening. Its Shanghai-traded bond surged 25% to 38 yuan, while a Shenzhen-traded bond rose 44% to 33.6 yuan.

China’s top leaders on Monday pledged to ramp up policy support for the economy amid a torturous post-COVID recovery, focusing on boosting domestic demand.

For the property sector, the Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party, said it is necessary to adapt to significant changes in market supply and demand and optimise property policies in a timely manner.

While few details of the support measures were provided, investors focused on one change in tone in particular, which they thought could mean more property stabilisation steps were imminent.

The Politburo did not mention the oft-repeated phrase “houses are for living in, not for speculation” in the statement after the meeting.

“Most important, (Beijing) sent a signal of further easing property restrictions by dropping the phrase…and mentioning streaming property policies,” Nomura chief China economist Ting Lu said.

Shares of major developers Sunac China also rose 14% while Longfor Group rallied 23%. Seazen Group and KWG Group both firmed 19%.

Sino-Ocean Group’s onshore bond rose 8.6% to 23.5 yuan in Shanghai. The state-backed firm is currently negotiating with creditors to extend the repayment for the yuan bond due Aug. 2.

While the overall statement by Politburo exceeded low market expectations, analysts said further property easing was unlikely to be large and may simply be on “city by city” basis.

Nomura’s Lu maintained the view that there is no quick fix for the property sector, and that the central government would only marginally ease some existing restrictive measures in large cities.

Morgan Stanley expected policymakers would likely roll out a “more sensible and forceful package” that could include easing second home purchase restrictions in second tier cities.

In recent weeks, investors were wary of a deepening debt crisis in the property sector as new signs of trouble emerged among state-backed property developers Sino-Ocean Group and Greenland Holdings 600606.SS, as well as property giants Country Garden and Dalian Wanda Group.

(Reporting by Clare Jim; Additional reporting by Jason Xue in Shanghai; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Sam Holmes)

Oil prices rise on tighter supply, China hopes

Oil prices edged higher for a third straight session on Tuesday, as signs of tighter supplies and pledges by Chinese authorities to shore up the world’s second-biggest economy lifted sentiment.

Brent futures gained 25 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 82.99 a barrel by 0633 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 27 cents, also 0.3%, to USD 79.01. Both benchmarks settled over 2% higher the previous day at their highest closing levels since April.

The crude benchmarks have already climbed for four weeks in a row with supplies expected to tighten due to cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia, a group known as OPEC+. Some analysts say it could rise further in the short term.

“Energy traders are growing confident that global central bank tightening will soon come to an end, which should provide some support for global growth,” said Edward Moya, an analyst at OANDA.

In China, the world’s second-largest economy and second-biggest oil consumer, leaders pledged to step up policy support for the economy amid a tortuous post-COVID recovery, focusing on boosting domestic demand.

Still, bearish data in the euro zone and United States underlined weakness across the global economy.

In the euro zone, business activity shrank much more than expected in July as demand in the bloc’s dominant services industry declined while factory output fell at the fastest pace since COVID-19 first took hold, a survey showed.

In the US, business activity slowed to a five-month low in July, dragged down by decelerating service-sector growth, a closely watched survey showed, but falling input prices and slower hiring indicate the Federal Reserve could be making progress on important fronts in its bid to reduce inflation.

Investors have priced in quarter-point hikes from the Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) this week, so the focus will be on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde say about future rate increases.

Later on Tuesday, industry data on U.S. crude inventories is expected. Four analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 2 million barrels in the week to July 21.

(Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan and Stephanie Kelly;
Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Stephen Coates)

Oil prices hit 3-month highs on tightening supplies

NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) – Oil prices rose to three-month highs on Tuesday, as signs of tighter supplies and pledges by Chinese authorities to shore up the world’s second-biggest economy lifted sentiment.

Brent LCOc1 futures settled up 90 cents at USD 83.64 a barrel, after hitting USD 83.87 earlier, the highest since April 19.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 89 cents to USD 79.63. The contract earlier rose to USD 79.90 a barrel, also the highest since April 19.

The crude benchmarks have already clinched four weekly gains in a row, with supplies expected to tighten due to output cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies.

Earlier-loading Brent contracts are selling above later loadings, a price structure known as backwardation indicating traders see tight supply, with the six-month spread near a 2-1/2-month high.

“The market is getting more concerned about the trend of tightening oil supplies, and it’s becoming more obvious to the naysayers that the expected drop-off in demand isn’t happening,” Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said.

In China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, leaders pledged to step up economic policy support.

Still, some economic data limited gains. In the euro zone, business activity shrank more than expected in July, a survey showed.

In the United States, business activity slowed to a five-month low in July, a closely watched survey showed. But falling input prices and slower hiring indicate the Federal Reserve could be making progress in its bid to reduce inflation. Markets anticipate 25-basis-point rate hikes from both the Fed and the European Central Bank this week.

US crude oil and distillate inventories gained last week, while gasoline stockpiles fell, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Crude stocks gained by about 1.32 million barrels in the week ended July 21, according to the sources who spoke on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by about 1.04 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by about 1.61 million barrels.

US government data on inventories is due on Wednesday.

Sending a bearish signal, a 110,000 barrel-per-day unit at the huge US refinery in Baton Rouge will be shut for up to four weeks, sources said.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly; additional reporting by Shadia Nasralla and Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Susan Fenton, Sharon Singleton and Bill Berkrot)

Gold trades narrow range as Fed verdict draws near

July 24 (Reuters) – Gold prices traded in a tight range on Monday as traders braced for a widely anticipated interest rate hike along with clues on future monetary policy from the Federal Reserve this week.

Spot gold was mostly unchanged at USD 1,959.00 per ounce by 1:57 p.m. EDT (1757 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.2% lower at USD 1,962.20.

“Gold is slow and steady, with traders betting that the Fed is getting close to their point where they stop hikes,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Bullion may have found some safe-haven demand after Russia destroyed Ukrainian grain warehouses on an export route for Kyiv after pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal last week, Haberkorn added.

But the focus was still on the Fed’s decision on interest rates on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday, with both seen hiking rates.

Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates as they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

“Any dovish surprise, particularly from the Fed, could be positive for gold, with good chances of seeing a new attack to the USD 2,000 mark,” said Carlo Alberto De Casa, market analyst at Kinesis Money, in a note.

The dollar index inched 0.2% higher, limiting gold’s upside by making it more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Gold priced in euros hit its highest since July 5 earlier in the day after data showed euro zone business activity shrank much more than expected in July.

Silver fell 0.7% to USD 24.39 per ounce, platinum slipped 0.1% to USD 961.01 and palladium dropped 1% to USD 1,277.84.

UBS analysts in a note predicted platinum would be under-supplied for the rest of 2023 due to substitution in autocatalysts and lower South African production.

(Reporting by Deep Vakil in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

Funds build biggest short dollar position since March 2021

ORLANDO, Florida, July 23 (Reuters) – Hedge funds have ramped up their bearish dollar bets by more than USD 7 billion in a week, and are now sitting on their biggest net short dollar position in over two years.

The move was largely down to shifts in net euro and yen holdings, and comes ahead of monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan.

Foreign exchange speculators’ long sterling positions are now the biggest on record, although decent interest in shorting the pound means the overall net long position remains at a 16-year high, not an all-time peak.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission data for the week to July 18 show speculators’ increased their net short dollar position against a range of G10 and emerging currencies to USD 20.6 billion from USD 13.17 billion the week before.

It is the most substantial bet on the dollar falling since March 2021, and marks the 37th week in a row funds have been net short.

The USD 7.4 billion bearish shift in funds’ overall dollar position was the largest since March 2020, and was mostly accounted for by the USD 5.8 billion and USD 2.3 billion moves in euro and yen positions, respectively.

To be ‘short’ an asset is essentially a bet that it will fall in value, while to be ‘long’ is effectively a bet that it will appreciate. Investors often use futures contracts to hedge positions, but the CFTC data are often a pretty good guide to hedge funds’ directional view on a given asset.

The value of funds’ short dollar position is big, but not extreme. It was much larger for long spells around 2006-2008, 2010-2011, and 2020-2021, and it is still only half of the record bets in 2011 that topped USD 40 billion.

But the net long euro position is nearing record levels, perhaps not a total surprise given that the trade-weighted euro last week hit its strongest level ever.

Funds increased their net long position by almost 40,000 contracts to just under 180,000 contracts, nearing the all-time high of more than 200,000 contracts in August 2020.

That’s a USD 25 billion bet on the euro rising.

It’s a different story with the yen, where funds are still heavily short, but they scaled that bet back significantly in the week through July 18. Earlier this month, their net short position was the largest in five and a half years.

We will only get the full picture of CFTC funds’ pre-G3 central bank positioning with data for the week ending July 25, which will be released after the policy decisions.

The latest snapshot for the week through July 18, however, suggests speculators may be positioning for a more dovish Fed relative to the ECB, and are trimming a large and profitable short yen position.

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Oil prices up 2% to near 3-month high on tight supply, China stimulus hopes

NEW YORK, July 24 (Reuters) – Oil prices climbed about 2% to a nearly three-month high on Monday on tightening supply, rising US gasoline demand, hopes for Chinese stimulus measures, and technical buying.

Brent futures rose USD 1.67, or 2.1%, to settle at USD 82.74 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose USD 1.67, or 2.1%, to settle at USD 78.74.

Those were the highest closes for Brent since April 19 and for WTI since April 24, as both contracts were pushed into technically overbought territory above their 200-day moving averages.

The 200-day moving average had been a key point of technical resistance for both benchmarks since August 2022.

Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Bank, said a move above the 200-day moving average “generally stops out the (speculative) shorts (and) attracts traders looking for new entry points.”

Both crude benchmarks have already climbed for four weeks in a row with supplies expected to tighten due to cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia, a group known as OPEC+.

Oil’s rise has reflected “tightening conditions as Saudi oil output cuts impact the market … even as summer demand has been somewhat stronger for gasoline and jet fuel,” Citi Research said in a note.

Strong demand and worries about supply issues boosted US gasoline futures RBc1 to their highest level since October 2022.

“The rally in crude oil is impressive as it occurs as Europe is looking very weak right now, the US is slowing down, and China’s Politburo isn’t expected to unveil major stimulus this week,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at data and analytics firm OANDA, said in a note.

In the eurozone, business activity shrank much more than expected in July as demand in the bloc’s dominant services industry declined while factory output fell at the fastest pace since COVID-19 first took hold, a survey showed.

In the US, business activity slowed to a five-month low in July, dragged down by decelerating service-sector growth, closely watched survey data showed, but falling input prices and slower hiring indicate the Federal Reserve could be making progress on important fronts in its bid to reduce inflation.

A majority of economists polled by Reuters still expect this will be the last increase of the current US tightening cycle, after data this month showed signs of disinflation, eliminating the need for the Fed to lift rates further.

Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and can slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank said demand for oil in China “is now surpassing expectations,” which “helps to add confidence in the ability of China to make up (two-thirds) of oil demand growth this year.”

(Reporting by Scott Disavino in New York; Additional reporting by Noah Browning in London and Florence Tan and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Susan Fenton and Matthew Lewis)

G3 central banks and China Politburo bonanza

July 24 (Reuters) – The week ahead could be pivotal to the financial market landscape for the rest of the year, as the G3 central banks deliver their latest policy decisions and China’s Politburo of the ruling Communist Party meets to discuss the economy.

The US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan decisions and press conferences all come over the Wednesday-Friday 48-hour period, and China’s Politburo is expected to begin its meet on Friday.

If that wasn’t enough, purchasing managers index figures will give the first indications on how economies performed in July. The US earnings season moves up a gear with Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Alphabet among the big names reporting.

Dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell would probably boost risk appetite and lift global stocks markets. The dollar and US bond yields would likely come under downward pressure too – often bullish triggers for Asian and emerging markets.

Investors in Asia have to wait until Friday for the big two set pieces of the week.

More than three quarters of economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to keep policy unchanged, including its yield control scheme. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signaled his resolve to maintain massive monetary stimulus, despite inflation persistently outpacing the bank’s 2% target.

In a symbolic development last week, Japan’s annual rate of headline consumer inflation rose above comparable US inflation for the first time since 2015. But the BOJ’s deflation battle scars run deep, so investor hopes of and end to super-loose policy are being pushed back further.

It’s a different story in China – the economy and markets are badly underperforming, growth forecasts are being slashed, and the big danger is deflation, not inflation.

The central bank has been reluctant to ease policy because the already weak yuan could come under even greater selling pressure, so investors are pinning their hopes on a fiscal boost from Beijing. And it will have to be a significant boost.

Measures announced on Friday to help boost sales of cars and electronics failed to impress investors, and foreigners are steering clear of China’s financial assets even though they are relatively cheap.

But the economic, financial, political and social challenges Beijing faces are such that Chinese stocks can get even cheaper before foreign investors start buying again en masse.

Monday’s economic data calendar and potential market-movers in Asia will be the Japanese and Australian PMIs, and the latest inflation figures from Malaysia and Singapore.

Malaysian inflation is expected to fall to 2.4% in June – the lowest since April last year – from 2.8% in May. Singapore’s inflation is seen falling to 4.55% – the lowest since February last year – from 5.10%.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:

– Japan PMIs (July)

– Australia PMIs (July)

– Singapore inflation (June)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Diane Craft)

Yields up on week after labor, other data send mixed rate path signals

July 21 (Reuters) – US Treasury yields ticked down on Friday but were still slightly up on the week, after a slew of economic data that left mixed signals as to whether the Federal Reserve is nearing its rate-hiking cycle.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were down 1.1 basis points on the day at 3.842%.

Meanwhile, interest rate sensitive two-year Treasury yields rose 1.1 basis points to 4.850%.

The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes, a key indicator of recession expectations, was last at minus 100.9 basis points.

The yield curve’s widening comes after a week of economic data points, which have sent mixed signals to the market about the Fed’s likely monetary policy after its meeting next week from July 25-26.

“All of these numbers are consistent with a recessionary dynamic and have been for the better part of the second half of this year,” said Ed Al-Hussainy, senior global rates strategist at asset manager Columbia Threadneedle in New York.

Yields spiked on Thursday following initial jobless claims data from the Labor Department that showed 228,000 claims for the week ending July 15, a decline from the previous week and their lowest since mid-May.

Other data painted a more negative economic picture, such as Thursday’s data from the National Association of Realtors which showed a month-to-month drop in existing home sales at the same time as home prices rose to their second-highest ever recorded.

Despite the mixed signals, market participants have remained focused on the latest inflation data, perhaps the most important to the Fed’s decision whether to hike rates further in the coming months. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to announce a 25-basis-point hike at next week’s meeting.

“One signal that has been consistent is the decline in pricing,” Al-Hussainy said. “Prices paid, prices received and so on are consistent with inflation coming down and inflation losing momentum.”

Ten-year yields fell to a 10-day low on July 13 after data came in showing producer prices remained largely flat in June and producer inflation increased its lowest in nearly three years.

It came after an inflation report on July 12 showed similar readings for US consumer prices.

On July 24, ahead of the Fed’s meeting, the market will watch for the S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indices, two surveys of conditions in the manufacturing and services sectors.

July 21 Friday 3:22 PM New York / 1922 GMT

	Price	Current Yield %	Net Change (bps)
Three-month bills	5.2675	5.4243	0.008
Six-month bills	5.2575	5.4878	-0.002
Two-year note	99-150/256	4.8501	0.011
Three-year note	100-34/256	4.4514	0.008
Five-year note	99-144/256	4.0983	-0.002
Seven-year note	98-162/256	3.9772	-0.012
10-year note	96-52/256	3.8428	-0.011
30-year bond	94-248/256	3.9121	0.001

DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS
	Last (bps)	Net Change (bps)
US 2-year dollar swap spread	17.75	0.25
US 3-year dollar swap spread	14.75	0.25
US 5-year dollar swap spread	7.50	0.50
US 10-year dollar swap spread	2.75	0.50
US 30-year dollar swap spread	-36.75	1.00

(Reporting by Matt Tracy, Editing by Nick Zieminski and Alison Williams)

Gold slips as dollar firms, focus on US Fed meet next week

July 21 (Reuters) – Gold fell on Friday, moving further away from a two-month peak hit in the last session, due to a stronger dollar and as investors remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve policy meeting next week.

Spot gold was down 0.3% at USD 1,962.85 per ounce by 01:45 p.m. EDT (1745 GMT), but was set for a 0.4% rise this week. US gold futures settled 0.2% lower at USD 1,966.60.

The dollar index rose 0.2% to a more than one-week high after a positive weekly US jobless claims data, making gold more expensive for other currency holders.

“Usually, we will see a softer gold market ahead of the interest rate decision and we’re seeing the metals in a softer environment ahead of that… I think rates are going to be somewhat strong for the foreseeable future,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

“Also, gold is having trouble getting above USD 2,000 per ounce level and we’re stuck right in the middle of the USD 1,900-USD 2,000 range for quite some time here.”

The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on July 26, and hopes that this increase would be its last had driven gold to its highest in about two months on Thursday.

Rising US interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

“If the Fed pours cold water on the notion that its rate hikes are coming to an end, that could prompt bullion to unwind some of its recent gains and falter back into the mid-USD 1,900s,” Exinity Chief Market Analyst Han Tan said.

Among other metals, spot silver eased 0.5% at USD 24.61 per ounce, after having hit its highest since May 11 in the last session.

Platinum rose 1% to USD 962.78 and palladium gained 1.1% to USD 1,291.81.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

Global equity funds see first weekly outflow in four weeks

July 21 (Reuters) – Global equity funds witnessed their first weekly outflow in four weeks in the week to July 19, reflecting concerns over slower growth in China and caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.

According to Refinitiv Lipper data, global equity funds observed a net USD 2.67 billion worth of net selling in the week ended July 19, booking their first weekly outflow since June 21.

China’s economy grew at a frail pace in the second quarter, pointing to overall momentum faltering rapidly due to weakening demand at home and abroad.

Additionally, expectations of rate hikes strengthened following a report from the US Commerce Department indicating strong core retail consumption.

Investors withdrew USD 3.04 billion from US equity funds while purchasing Asian and European equity funds to the tune of USD 609 million and USD 336 million, respectively.

Sectoral equity funds attracted collective inflows of about USD 1.78 billion, with investors piling up tech, financial and industrial sector funds of USD 1.05 billion, USD 904 million, and USD 793 million, respectively.

Meanwhile, global bond funds saw USD 5.29 billion worth of net purchases as inflows extended into a fourth successive week.

Global high-yield bond funds received a net USD 2.97 billion, the biggest amount since April 5. Government and corporate bond funds attracted USD 627 million and USD 724 million worth of inflows, respectively.

Investors also purchased money-market funds of about USD 2.86 billion, after a net USD 28.8 billion worth of selling in the previous week.

Data for commodity funds showed that investors exited USD 295 million worth of precious metal funds in the eighth straight week of net selling. They also sold energy funds worth a marginal USD 2 million.

Meanwhile, data for 24,134 emerging market funds showed equity funds received USD 1.1 billion, the biggest weekly inflow since May 3, while bond funds obtained about USD 568 million, marking a third straight weekly inflow.

(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Editing by David Holmes)

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