A sea of red, but AAA shock will fade

Aug 3 (Reuters) – No doubt about it, Wednesday was one of the gloomiest days in a long time for stock markets around the world, as Fitch’s surprise move to strip the US of its AAA credit rating gave investors the ideal cover to take profit and cut risk exposure.

But will the downgrade have any lasting market impact? It is questionable, to say the least, and Asia could recover ground on Thursday if key purchasing managers index reports show service sector activity across the region held up well in July.

Services PMI data from Australia, Japan, India, and China are due on Thursday, with China’s unofficial Caixin report coming under the closest scrutiny. It is expected to show the seventh straight month of growth, but at a slower pace from June.

China’s economic indicators have undershot consensus for months, and by a significant margin too. Could that be about to turn?

Investors will be hoping for a positive surprise after Wednesday’s heavy selling. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index had its worst day since June last year and the MSCI World index had its biggest fall since December, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted their biggest declines since February and April, respectively.

Fitch’s decision late on Tuesday came as a surprise and certainly contributed to the slump in stocks. But its effect on the dollar and US bonds – two areas where souring US creditworthiness should hit the hardest – was negligible.

Two- and 10-year Treasury yields moved a few basis points and the dollar rose. The dollar has now appreciated 10 of the last 12 trading days – bad news for hedge funds holding the largest short dollar position in two-and-a-half years.

G10 FX volatility crept to a two-month high on Wednesday but it’s worth remembering that in early June, vol slumped to its lowest since March last year.

The US yield curve has been steepening for more than a week, led by selling at the long end. That trend accelerated on Wednesday after the Treasury laid out plans to increase the size of debt auctions in the coming quarters.

Japanese stocks on Wednesday suffered their worst day of the year, knocked down by the triple whammy of the BOJ’s step last week toward policy normalization, rising long US bond yields, and a stronger dollar.

But again, the bigger picture is less alarming. The yen ended the day little changed, and dollar/yen volatility is comfortably lower than it was before Friday’s BOJ move.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

– China, Japan, India, and Australia services PMI(July)

– Australia trade balance (June)

– Bank of England rate decision

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

Gold retreats as dollar, bond yields resume climb

Aug 2 (Reuters) – Gold prices slipped on Wednesday as the dollar rose and bond yields strengthened after data showed US private payrolls increased more than expected in July.

Spot gold was down 0.4% at USD 1,935.77 per ounce at 2:45 p.m. EDT (1845 GMT), after rising as much as 0.6% earlier on some safe-haven bids after ratings agency Fitch downgraded the US government’s credit rating to AA+ from AAA.

US gold futures settled 0.2% lower at USD 1,975.

“Higher interest rates would ultimately put pressure on gold. Also, we are seeing more strength in the dollar. Prices are trapped below USD 2,000 and above USD 1,900 for the time being,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

The dollar rose 0.3% to more than a three-week high, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since November 2022.

US private payrolls rose by 324,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed, well above the increase of 189,000 that economists polled by Reuters had forecast.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability that the US central bank would leave rates unchanged at its Sept. 19-20 meeting was at 83%.

Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

“Traders and investors are not badly shaken over the surprise Fitch news, but it did somewhat deflate heretofore upbeat marketplace attitudes that had recently pushed US stock indexes to new highs for the year,” Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco, wrote in a note.

All eyes are on the release on Friday of the US nonfarm payrolls report for July. Overall payrolls are forecast to rise by 200,000, after increasing by 209,000 in June.

Elsewhere, spot silver fell 2.5% to USD 23.72 per ounce, platinum dropped 1.1% to USD 921.10 and palladium gained 0.1% to USD 1,240.74.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Deep Vakil in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar, Paul Simao, and Maju Samuel)

Stocks drop, Treasuries gain after Fitch downgrades US rating

HONG KONG, Aug 2 (Reuters) – Asian stocks and U.S. Treasury yields declined on Wednesday after ratings agency Fitch unexpectedly downgraded the United States’ top-tier sovereign credit rating.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares slid 1.9%. Japan’s Nikkei dropped by 1.8%, while Australian shares tumbled 2.3%.

China’s mainland benchmark and Hong Kong’s fell by 0.9% and 2.2%, respectively, as some investors booked profits in the absence of concrete and forceful measures by Beijing to shore up a faltering economy.

Asian stocks were also weighed down by declines on Wall Street overnight. US stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, pointed 0.2% lower on Wednesday.

In early European trades, the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures were down 0.7%. German DAX futures and FTSE futures fell 0.8% and 0.5% respectively.

Fitch cut the United States by one notch to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration, a decision announced after the Wall Street close on Tuesday.

US 10-year Treasury yields declined by about 2 basis points to 4.025% in Tokyo.

“Most of the Asia turmoil this morning and the Treasury yields move is triggered by the Fitch decision,” said Manishi Raychaudhuri, head of Asia Pacific equity research at BNP Paribas.

“It’s kind of a short-term knee-jerk reaction, so we will have to wait and watch for how this pans out.”

Raychaudhuri said the Fitch move might actually lead to increased demand for US Treasuries, at least in the near term, given US corporate debt “might be viewed as being more risky now than it used to be”.

Investors counterintuitively fled to the relative safety of sovereign debt from riskier equity markets. Treasuries, whose yields fall when prices rise, were also bought when Standard & Poor’s cut the U.S. top “AAA” rating by one notch to “AA-plus” in 2011.

Tony Sycamore, an analyst with IG, said apart from the Fitch move, there has been some disappointing data in the U.S. and China and some weaker-than-expected earnings, and people are taking money off the table.

Managers who can only hold debt with AAA ratings from at least two agencies, for example, need to sit down and think what to buy instead of the US treasuries, he said.

The US dollar moved lower against a basket of major currencies immediately after the announcement, but was up 0.1% as of the Asian afternoon.

Japan’s 10-year bond yield hit a fresh nine-year peak on Wednesday as investors continued to test the Bank of Japan’s tolerance for higher yields following Friday’s surprise policy tweak.

While the investor reaction to the downgrade was relatively contained, it has injected some uncertainty into financial markets.

“This basically tells you the US government’s spending is a problem. It’s an unsustainable budget situation because the economy can’t even grow its way out of this problem going forward,” said Steven Ricchiuto, US chief economist, Mizuho Securities. “Therefore, they’re going to have to either tackle it or accept the consequences of potential further additional downgrades.”

Looking beyond the Fitch downgrade, the main area of focus will still be central banks, corporate earnings and, in China specifically, stimulus prospects and geopolitical issues, said BNP’s Raychaudhuri.

The United States publishes fresh data on jobless claims and unemployment later this week.

Oil prices gained on Wednesday, trading near their highest since April, after industry data showed a much steeper-than-expected draw last week in US crude oil inventories.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 ticked up 0.9% to $82.07 while Brent crude rose to USD 85.60 per barrel.

Gold was slightly higher, trading at USD 1,948.29 per ounce.

(Reporting by Xie Yu; Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Sam Holmes and Sonali Paul)

Dollar wobbles after US credit rating downgrade

SINGAPORE, Aug 2 (Reuters) – The dollar struggled to make headway on Wednesday after a cut on the US government’s top credit rating by Fitch raised questions about the country’s fiscal outlook, though it drew some support from a relatively resilient run of economic data.

Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA in a move that drew an angry response from the White House and surprised investors, coming despite the resolution two months ago of the debt ceiling crisis.

That nudged the greenback lower, lifting the euro EUR toward USD 1.10. The single currency last gained 0.12%, after earlier touching a session-high of USD 1.1020.

Sterling GBP steadied at USD 1.27755, while the US dollar index rose 0.07% to 102.07, having slipped broadly in the wake of the Fitch news.

“We don’t think the Fitch decision is that material. Certainly, we’ve seen the market move a little bit this morning … but over the near term, I don’t think it’s going to be a longer lasting driver,” said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank (NAB).

The dollar also found some support from Tuesday’s economic data that showed US job openings remained at levels consistent with tight labour market conditions, even as they fell to the lowest level in more than two years in June.

A separate report suggested U.S. manufacturing might be stabilising at weaker levels in July amid a gradual improvement in new orders, though factory employment dropped to a three-year low.

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen JPY rose nearly 0.5% to 142.67 and looked set to reverse three straight sessions of losses, with traders still assessing the implications of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) move on Friday to loosen its grip on interest rates.

BOJ deputy governor Shinichi Uchida said on Wednesday that the central bank’s decision was aimed at making its massive stimulus more sustainable and not a prelude to an exit from ultra-low interest rates.

“I think the market is still trying to get their head around what this whole thing means,” said NAB’s Catril.

The Australian dollar fell 0.36% to $0.65895, having earlier slid to its lowest level since June, extending a sharp fall from the previous session after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday held interest rates steady and signalled that it might be done tightening.

The New Zealand dollar similarly tumbled and was last 0.62% lower at USD 0.6112, after data on Wednesday showed the country’s jobless rate hit a two-year high in the second quarter, easing the pressure on its central bank to continue raising rates.

Kelly Eckhold, chief economist at Westpac, said in a note on Wednesday that he now sees the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raising rates in November instead of August, as recent data “have likely not been strong enough to overcome the RBNZ’s strong bias” to keep rates on hold.

(Reporting by Rae Wee Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Sam Holmes)

US macro ‘pain trade’ bites

Aug 2 (Reuters) – A double dose of the US Treasuries and dollar ‘pain trade’ looks set to put Asian markets on the defensive on Wednesday, with investors also bracing for South Korean inflation figures and an expected interest rate hike from the Bank of Thailand.

The slump in US bonds on Tuesday pushed the 10-year yield above 4.0%, and the 30-year yield above 4.10% for the first time since November, lifting the dollar and sapping any risk appetite investors might have had on the first day of the new month.

Several indicators, from big Wall Street banks’ client surveys to futures market positioning data, show investors are not positioned for that. They are heavily ‘long’ Treasuries and ‘short’ dollars – moves like Tuesday’s will hurt.

They will also add to the volatility and uncertainty evident in some key Asia and Pacific markets, notably Japanese assets following the Bank of Japan’s policy tweak, and the Australian dollar after the country’s central bank kept rates on hold at 4.10%.

The Aussie dollar’s 1.6% slide against the greenback on Tuesday was its biggest fall since the US regional banking shock in early March. The yen has fallen nearly 4% since the BOJ tweaked its seven-year ‘yield curve control’ policy on Friday.

Are US investors bringing money back home? If so, Asian and emerging markets will likely come under more selling pressure.

The US earnings season reaches a peak this week with more than 100 companies reporting, including mega tech firms Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Tuesday’s results were a mixed bag, allowing direction to be led by macro factors.

The Asian economic and policy calendar on Wednesday will be dominated by the Bank of Thailand’s expected 25-basis-point interest rate increase to 2.25%, which is likely to mark the end of the tightening cycle.

But analysts don’t expect the first rate cut until 2025 – although inflation has eased to 0.23%, below the central bank’s target range of 1%-3%, policymakers anticipate a pick up in prices again later this year.

Annual inflation in South Korea, meanwhile, is expected to have slowed to 2.40% in July from 2.70% the month before. If so, that would mark the slowest pace since June 2021 and a significant deceleration from the 6.30% peak a year ago.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– Thailand interest rate decision

– South Korea CPI inflation (July)

– Singapore manufacturing PMI (July)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Deepa Babington)

S&P 500, Nasdaq end lower on first day of August in busy earnings week

Aug 1 (Reuters) – The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed weaker on Tuesday, the first day of seasonally slow August, ahead of US jobs data and major companies’ earnings reports later this week.

US stocks ended July on a strong footing, as investors welcomed better-than-expected earnings. Support also came from hopes of a soft landing for the economy which has stayed resilient as inflation has cooled with rising interest rates.

The benchmark S&P 500 hit a 16-month high on Monday, and is less than 5% away from breaching its record-high closing level notched on Jan. 3, 2022.

“It’s been a really good run in June, July. And everybody sort of knows that August was historically a pretty weak seasonal month,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer of Horizon Investments. “So I think people are just taking the opportunity to lighten up a little bit.”

Keeping a lid on the Dow’s losses, Caterpillar (CAT) rose as the global economic bellwether reported a rise in second-quarter profit, though it warned of a sequential fall in current-quarter sales and margins.

Uber (UBER) fell after the ride-hailing company missed second-quarter revenue expectations.

Among pharmaceutical heavyweights, Pfizer (PFE) edged lower in choppy trading after the drugmaker’s quarterly revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations, hit by declining sales of its COVID-19 products.

US second-quarter earnings are now expected to fall 5.9% from a year earlier, Refinitiv data on Tuesday showed, compared with a 7.9% decline estimated a week earlier.

US manufacturing appeared to have stabilized at weaker levels in July as new orders gradually improved, while a survey showed factory employment dropped to a three-year low, suggesting that layoffs were accelerating.

Shares of megacap growth companies such as Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon.com (AMZN), whose valuations drop when borrowing costs rise, fell as the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note yield climbed over 4%.

Arista Networks (ANET) stocks rose as the network gear maker forecast quarterly revenue above estimates after delivering better-than-expected results.

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 lost 12.25 points, or 0.26%, to end at 4,576.94 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 62.11 points, or 0.43%, to 14,284.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 69.04 points, or 0.19%, to 35,628.57.

Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) tumbled after it forecast third-quarter profit below estimates, citing higher costs.

JetBlue Airways (JBLU) stocks dropped after it lowered its annual profit forecast due to a hit from the termination of its revenue-sharing deal with American Airlines (AAL).

(Reporting by Echo Wang in New York, Johann M Cherian and Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi and Richard Chang)

China asks some banks to reduce or delay dollar buying to ease pressure on yuan -sources

SHANGHAI/BEIJING, Aug 1 (Reuters) – China’s currency regulators have in recent weeks asked some commercial banks to reduce or delay their dollar purchases, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.

The informal instruction, or the so-called window guidance, was meant to slow the pace of yuan depreciation, the sources said. One source said the regulators were emphatic that banks should hold off dollar purchases under their proprietary trading accounts.

Chinese yuan has lost 3.6% against the US dollar so far this year, hitting 7.16 per dollar on Tuesday to be one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comments, while the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) told Reuters that exchange rate expectations were stable and it will push for a ‘risk-neutral’ mentality’ at companies and financial institutions.

(Reporting by Shanghai and Beijing Newsrooms; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)

Hungry investors queue up as Japan’s BOJ lifts yields bit by bit

SINGAPORE/TOKYO, Aug 1 (Reuters) – Japan’s government bond market has turned into a cat-and-mouse arena for investors and the Bank of Japan, as the latter tries to slow a rise in yields towards its new policy ceiling and hungry investors go a step ahead and snap up the bonds.

The game began after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) tweaked its complex seven-year-old yield-curve-control (YCC) policy on Friday, saying yields on the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) it targets can move flexibly and as far as 1%, rather than be capped at 0.5%.

Over the two trading days since, the market has tried to second-guess the pace at which the BOJ wants yields to move, while the BOJ has run special bond-buying operations to cap yields.

Analysts say the BOJ’s small shift in policy has opened investor floodgates to the world’s third-biggest bond market, and their pent-up demand could ironically ensure the ceiling on yields is not tested for a long time.

“It’s basically happy news for us. And now we’ve started buying little by little,” said a Japanese private pension fund manager, who requested anonymity as he is not authorized to speak to media.

“There is only a very, very small possibility of a sudden or very steep rise in JGB yields, because too many people want to buy the bonds. There are many potential buyers and very few potential sellers in the market.”

Tuesday’s auction of the benchmark 10-year bonds was proof of such demand. The maximum yield investors demanded was 0.6%, just 10 basis points (bps) above the previous policy cap.

The foreign bid for JGBs has been strong this year as rising rates in the United States and Europe meant dollar and euro investors get paid a lot for hedging their yen holdings.

Local banks, pension funds and insurance companies are now joining that bid for JGBs, hoping the still negative overnight rates, a slightly steeper yield curve and reduced BOJ presence in the bond market will allow for more returns and liquidity.

“The initial target for investors seems at least 0.70% to 0.80% so we continue to expect a grind higher in yields and are positioned for such,” said Ales Koutny, head of international rates at Vanguard Asset Management.

“That’s the kind of level we heard over and over again from local investors. It also starts looking interesting on a risk reward for currency-hedged investors.”

JGB HOLDINGS

Latest surveys show most Japanese insurance firms (lifers) brought money back home into yen this year, but kept it idle rather than put it in loss-making JGB investments.

“Domestic investors view this from an opportunity cost angle,” said Rong Ren Goh, fixed income investments director at Eastspring Investments in Singapore.

“The cost of hedging from US dollars to yen increases with the Fed hiking continuously while BOJ continues to stay put. It makes sense to thus rotate back to JGBs which now give a better yield than FX-hedged US Treasuries.”

The hedging dynamics work favourably for foreigners seeking yen assets. The promise of an extra 10-20 bps of JGB yield means 10-year JGBs hedged from dollars into yen can yield upwards of 6%.

As per BOJ data, lifers and pension funds held roughly 26% of a 1,132 trillion yen (USD 7.93 trillion) JGB market at the end of 2019. Foreigners held 12.9%, led by US and Belgian investors.

By March 2023, the first group’s share was down to 23%, foreigners held 14.5% and the BOJ held 47% of 1,229.8 trillion yen worth JGBs.

Rising yields should allow lifers to offset the high risks in their long-term liabilities, analysts said.

Through the YCC years, Japan’s pension funds too have struggled to meet their guaranteed payout obligations, ranging from 1.25% to 2.5%, on corporate plans, and some such as Nippon Life slashed their promised payouts last year.

Tomoya Masanao, co-head of Japan and co-head of Asia Pacific portfolio management at PIMCO, says the BOJ’s new 1% yield benchmark may never be reached.

“If yields were to rise anywhere close to 1%, there should be very strong demand for Japan duration (long-term bonds) from domestic investors, which would be enough to contain a yield rise,” Masanao said.

(USD 1 = 142.7700 yen)

(Additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore, Tom Westbrook in Sydney, Harry Robertson and Alun John in London; Writing by Vidya Ranganathan; Editing by Himani Sarkar)

Japanese shares end higher amid yen’s weakness; chip shares, Toyota shine

TOKYO, Aug 1 (Reuters) – Japanese shares ended higher on Tuesday, as investors cheered the weaker yen, with gains led by heavyweight chip-related firms and auto maker Toyota Motor, which doubled its quarterly profit.

The Nikkei jumped 0.92% to close at 33,476.58, while the broader Topix advanced 0.64% to 2,337.36.

Wall Street edged up on Monday, ending a strong July on upbeat company earnings and hopes of a soft landing amid a resilient U.S. economy.

“Japanese shares tracked Wall Street gains. They also benefited from the yen’s weakness, which tends to boost domestic corporate earnings,” said Shigetoshi Kamada, general manager of the research department at Tachibana Securities.

The yen slipped to a fresh three-week low, as traders pondered the Bank of Japan’s latest steps to tweak its yield curve control policy.

The yen and stocks typically move in opposite directions, since a stronger currency hurts exporters’ competitiveness and also makes stocks more expensive for foreigners.

“Investors bet on a rally on Japanese shares overall so they targetted shares on the Topix index,” Kamada said.

Toyota Motor 7203.T rose 2.49%, leading gains on the Topix after the automaker nearly doubled its operating profit in the first quarter.

Game and audio equipment maker Sony Group 6758.T was up 1.24%.

Chip-making equipment maker Tokyo Electron 8035.T rose 2.82%, providing the biggest boost to the Nikkei. Chip-testing equipment maker Advantest 6857.T jumped 4.02%.

All but four of 33 industry sub-indexes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange rose.

The banking index snapped its three-session rally, falling 1.23% to become the worst performer among the index groups.

Utilities advanced 3.29% to become the best performing index.

(Reporting by Junko Fujita; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Sonia Cheema)

((junko.fujita@thomsonreuters.com;))

Oil dips on stronger dollar, profit-taking signs after rally

HOUSTON, Aug 1 (Reuters) – Oil prices edged lower on a stronger dollar and signs of profit-taking after a rally in July when investors bet on tighter global supplies and demand growth in the second half of 2023.

Brent crude futures for October settled at USD 84.91 a barrel on Tuesday, down 52 cents or 0.6%. Front-month Brent settled on Monday at its highest since April 13.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed at USD 81.37 a barrel, down 43 cents, or 0.5%, from the previous session’s settlement, which was its highest since April 14.

“Crude is moving in a corrective phase this morning, prompted by a sharply higher US dollar index and satisfying the ‘overbought’ market situation,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.40%. A stronger dollar makes crude more expensive for investors holding other currencies.

US crude oil stocks fell by about 15.4 million barrels in the week ended July 28, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Analysts had expected a drop of 1.37 million barrels.

Gasoline inventories fell by about 1.7 million barrels, compared with estimates for a 1.3 million-barrel drop. Distillate inventories fell by about 510,000 barrels, compared with analysts’ estimates for a build of 112,000 barrels.

The inventory data helped crude futures tick up in post-settlement trade. Brent was up 32 cents or 0.4% at USD 85.75, while US crude futures jumped 40 cents or 0.5% to USD 82.22 in thin volumes.

To revive China’s private sector amid a flagging economic recovery following a protracted period of COVID restrictions, Chinese ministries, regulators, and the central bank on Tuesday pledged more financing support to small businesses.

Meanwhile, data released on Monday showed manufacturing activity in the eurozone contracted in July at the fastest pace since May 2020, tempering enthusiasm.

On the supply side, this Friday’s OPEC+ meeting is expected to see Saudi Arabia roll its voluntary cuts through September, further tightening supplies.

OPEC oil output fell in July after Saudi Arabia made an additional voluntary cut as part of the OPEC+ producer group’s latest agreement to support the market, and an outage curbed Nigerian supply, a Reuters survey found on Monday.

At a conference on Monday, BP (BP) chief Bernard Looney presaged oil demand growth continuing into next year and OPEC+ being increasingly disciplined.

(Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar in Houston; Additional reporting by Natalie Grover in London and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Christian Schmollinger, Sonali Paul, David Evans, Nick Macfie, Jan Harvey, Alexander Smith, Will Dunham, and Deepa Babington)

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