Gold scales record high, sprints towards USD 3,000 milestone

Gold prices raced to a record high within touching distance of the key milestone of USD 3,000 per ounce on Thursday, with momentum driven by elevated tariff uncertainty and bets on monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve.

Spot gold climbed 1.6% to USD 2,979.76 an ounce, as of 13:55 ET (1755 GMT), after hitting its twelfth record peak this year earlier in the session.

Prices are up nearly 14% so far this year after a solid 27% gain in 2024.

US gold futures settled 1.5% higher at USD 2,991.3.

“Gold is in a secular bull market. We forecast prices to trade between USD 3,000-USD 3,200 this year,” said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold.

US President Donald Trump’s fluctuating trade policies have helped gold, an asset preferred by investors amid geopolitical and economic turmoil. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said a recession would be “worth it” to get Trump’s economic policies in place.

Next on the radar is the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting next Wednesday. The central bank is expected to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range.

“The potential impact of the tariff and trade threats are impossible to model, forcing the Fed to gauge economic data to help it determine its next move,” said John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management.

“We believe the Fed is stuck in a wait-and-see state.”

The central bank has reduced rates by 100 basis points since September, but paused its easing cycle in January. Traders expect policymakers will resume cutting borrowing costs in June.

Data from the US Labor Department showed producer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in February, while the consumer price index rose 0.2% last month after accelerating 0.5% in January.

“Strong ETF (exchange-traded fund) demand and continued central bank buying in a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and the continued uncertainty created by tariff changes has really continued to stoke appetite for gold,” said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper.

SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF said its holdings rose to 907.82 metric tons on February 25, the highest since August 2023.

Meanwhile, China continued its gold purchases for a fourth consecutive month in February, the People’s Bank of China data showed.

Spot silver rose 1.4% to USD 33.69 per ounce.

“A strong breakout above USD 33.30 could open the doors toward USD 34 for silver,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM.

Platinum gained 0.6% to USD 990.25, while palladium added 0.9% to USD 956.99.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad, Sarah Qureshi, Brijesh Patel, and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo and Nia Williams)

Oil up 2% on tighter US supplies but tariff concerns loom

NEW YORK – Oil prices rose 2% on Wednesday, as US government data showed tighter-than-expected oil and fuel inventories, though investors kept an eye on mounting fears of a US economic slowdown and the impact of tariffs on global economic growth.

Brent futures settled USD 1.39, or 2%, higher at USD 70.95 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained USD 1.43, or 2.2%, to USD 67.68 a barrel.

US crude stockpiles rose by 1.4 million barrels in the latest week, US government data showed on Wednesday, which was less than the 2-million barrel rise forecasters had expected.

US gasoline inventories fell by 5.7 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.9 million-barrel draw, while distillate stocks also dropped by more than expected.

“This week, the oil build was smaller than expected, and gasoline and diesel draws were larger than expected,” said Josh Young, Chief Investment Officer, Bison Interests. “This evidences stronger demand and could see oil prices rise as a result.”

In recent days, crude futures have been supported by a weaker US dollar and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) moving away from earlier calls of strongly oversupplied oil markets this year, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

The dollar hovered near a five-month low against other major currencies, as traders digested tit-for-tat US-EU tariffs and a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.

The dollar index, which fell 0.5% to fresh 2025 lows on Tuesday, boosted oil prices by making crude less expensive for buyers holding other currencies. USD/

However, signs of cooling inflation offered investors some respite after US consumer prices increased less than expected in February. Still, US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs on imports are expected to raise the costs of most goods in the months ahead. Some have taken effect and others have been delayed or are set to kick in later.

Markets worry that tariffs could raise prices for businesses, boost inflation, and undermine consumer confidence in a blow to economic growth.

“Fears of a US recession, weakness in US stock markets, and concerns over tariffs affecting key oil players such as China, introduced additional market uncertainty and these factors could continue to fuel a bearish sentiment, putting a lid on oil prices,” said Hassan Fawaz, chairman and founder of brokerage GivTrade.

Also on Wednesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries kept its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2025, saying air and road travel would support consumption.

“Trade concerns are expected to contribute to volatility as trade policies continue to be unveiled. However, the global economy is expected to adjust,” OPEC said in the report.

OPEC also published figures showing a 363,000 bpd increase in production by the wider OPEC+ group in February, led by a jump in Kazakhstan which is lagging in its adherence to OPEC+ output quotas.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly in New York, Arunima Kumar in Mumbai, Nicole Jao in New York, and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by Louise Heavens, Nick Zieminski, and David Gregorio)

US corporate bond spreads hit widest in about 6 months on recession fears

The spreads between the yields on corporate bonds and US Treasuries hit their widest since September this week, pointing to mounting investor worries about recession and a global trade war.

US investment-grade bond spreads hit 94 basis points on Tuesday, their widest level since Sept. 18, according to the ICE BofA Corporate Index. Junk bond spreads widened to 322 bps, also their widest since Sept. 18, according to Tuesday’s late update of the ICE BofA High Yield Bond Index.

Investors consider US corporate bond spreads a good gauge of financial market stress, especially the gap between yields on bonds issued by companies with poor credit ratings and ultra-safe US government debt. When the gap widens it shows less willingness to hold riskier “junk” bonds.

The widening in spreads comes as the latest sign of growing anxiety about the economic outlook following a series of import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration that raised the specter of a global trade war.

“This will be inflationary, and the Fed won’t likely be able to cut rates in this environment,” said Andrzej Skiba, head of BlueBay US fixed income at RBC GAM. “This could put pressure on fixed income assets, and we see more spread widening and risk ahead.”

A Reuters poll last week found 95% of economists across Canada, the US, and Mexico said the risk of a recession in their respective countries had increased following Trump’s chaotic tariff implementation.

“The escalation of tariff hostilities and re-rating in Tech sector valuations is causing contagion from stocks to credit in a way not observed in a while and is stoking fears that the economy could veer off the tracks,” Societe Generale analysts wrote in a Wednesday note.

The junk bond spread has opened up by 59 bps since a recent low on Feb. 18, JPMorgan analysts noted on Wednesday. They added that junk spreads are “biased wider” over the coming months, due to “vast macro uncertainty” surrounding trade policy, inflation and recession.

Corporate bond spreads are still tight on a historical basis, the analysts noted. Junk spreads late last year contracted to around 250 basis points, the lowest since 2007, before the Financial Crisis, during which they blew out to more than 2,000 basis points or twenty percentage points. They were well above 350 bps for the majority of 2022 and 2023, according to the ICE BofA High Yield Index.

Nicholas Elfner, co-head of research at asset manager Breckinridge Capital Advisors, said that as the impacts of President Trump’s potentially inflationary economic and fiscal policies become clearer, US corporate bond spreads are expected to widen further.

This should bolster the yield allure of corporate debt for investors, including from foreign investors, who overtook insurers and pension funds in 2024 in demand for corporate bonds, Elfner said.

(Reporting by Matt Tracy; Editing by Alden Bentley, Chizu Nomiyama, Alexandra Hudson, and Diane Craft)

Gold rises on tariff uncertainty, cooler US inflation data

Safe-haven gold rose on Wednesday, aided by tariff uncertainty and a cooler inflation report that keep bets for a US rate cut intact.

Spot gold was up 0.7% at USD 2,935.59 an ounce as of 02:32 p.m. ET (1832 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.9% higher at USD 2,946.80.

“The concern continues to be that we’re going to have tariffs and that will ultimately potentially cause some inflation,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

Data showed that the US consumer price index rose 0.2% last month after accelerating 0.5% in January. However, the improvement is likely temporary against the backdrop of aggressive tariffs on imports that are expected to raise the cost of most goods in the months ahead.

Lower US inflation may give the Fed more leeway to cut interest rates, Melek added.

Last year, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 100 basis points. Financial markets expect the Fed to resume cutting rates in June because of the deteriorating economic outlook, after pausing in January.

Non-yielding gold thrives in a low interest environment and is considered a safe investment during periods of economic and geopolitical turmoil.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims data due on Thursday are the next data sets on investors’ radar.

On the trade policies front, President Donald Trump’s increased tariffs on all US steel and aluminum imports took effect on Wednesday, stepping up a campaign to reorder global trade in favor of the US and drawing swift retaliation from Europe.

Spot silver added 1.1% to USD 33.31 an ounce.

Silver should outperform gold in our base case of a modest recovery in manufacturing activity, although a sharper slowdown in US growth is a key risk, UBS said in a note.

Platinum was up 1.3% at USD 987.40 and palladium rose by 0.2% to USD 947.50.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Ishaan Arora; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle, Shailesh Kuber, and Alan Barona)

Gold rises on tariff uncertainty, cooler US inflation data

Safe-haven gold rose on Wednesday, aided by tariff uncertainty and a cooler inflation report that keep bets for a US rate cut intact.

Spot gold was up 0.7% at USD 2,935.59 an ounce as of 02:32 p.m. ET (1832 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.9% higher at USD 2,946.80.

“The concern continues to be that we’re going to have tariffs and that will ultimately potentially cause some inflation,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

Lower US inflation may give the Fed more leeway to cut interest rates, Melek added.

Non-yielding gold thrives in a low interest environment and is considered a safe investment during periods of economic and geopolitical turmoil.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims data due on Thursday are the next data sets on investors’ radar.

Spot silver added 1.1% to USD 33.31 an ounce.

Silver should outperform gold in our base case of a modest recovery in manufacturing activity, although a sharper slowdown in US growth is a key risk, UBS said in a note.

Platinum was up 1.3% at USD 987.40 and palladium rose by 0.2% to USD 947.50.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Ishaan Arora; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle, Shailesh Kuber, and Alan Barona)

Investors bought Magnificent 7 ETF amid downturn, data shows

Individual investors snapped up shares of an exchange-traded fund tied to the “Magnificent Seven” group of technology megacap stocks during the recent nosedive in the US stock market, according to data on Wednesday.

The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF attracted a net USD 50 million of inflows in the four trading days ended on Tuesday, according to market analysis firm VettaFi. The MAGS ETF fell more than 7% in that four-day period, while the S&P 500 dropped 4.6%.

The inflows marked a sharp end to a five-week period during which the USD 1.68 billion fund lost USD 163 million in assets. The ETF, which also includes megacap stocks such as Nvidia and Apple, is down over 12% this year.

“This is the first decent-sized correction that this cohort has had for some time,” said Todd Sohn, market strategist at Strategas. “For investors who still believe in having a concentrated position in those companies, then an ETF like this is a quick way to make that allocation.”

Retail investors appeared to be among the purchasers, according to data from Vanda Research. They accounted for about 25% of all purchases of the ETF in the week ended on Tuesday, the firm said.

“Investors are still willing to buy an ETF that lumps all seven of these companies together, even as their individual returns are starting to vary more and more,” Sohn said.

Tesla TSLA.O is still 38% lower so far this year as of late afternoon on Wednesday, while shares of Meta Platforms are nearly 6% higher in 2025.

Individuals looking to overweight technology stocks still tend to prefer using products tied to broader indexes, Vanda said. Those include the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, and the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares, which targets a return that is three times that of the NYSE Semiconductor Index.

Those ETFs also saw buying by retail investors during the sharpest market decline in recent days, according to Vanda.

(Reporting by Suzanne McGee; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

Dollar edges higher as markets weigh trade tensions

NEW YORK – The US dollar edged higher against major currencies including the yen and the euro on Wednesday as data showing a slowdown in inflation was eclipsed by worries about potential inflationary implications of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

A trade brinkmanship between the US and its trading partners, spurred by Trump’s unpredictable announcements on tariffs, has spread uncertainty among investors.

In the latest episode, Trump vowed to respond to the European Union’s threat to impose counter tariffs on 26 billion euros (USD 28 billion) worth of US goods from next month after Trump implemented blanket tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

Earlier on Wednesday, Labor Department data showed a lower-than-expected increase in US consumer prices to 0.2% last month, compared with the average forecast of 0.3%, based on economists polled by Reuters.

“Obviously the overarching theme has been around the trade war and the back-and-forth on tariffs not just with the North America partners but also with the other countries in Europe in particular and China,” said Amarjit Sahota, executive director at Klarity FX in San Francisco.

“We were also going to get an inflation update, which we did, and inflation is still pretty sticky and it came lighter than expected. I think it was a little bit of a relief for the marketplace, so it improved sentiment. But sentiment is on a very short leash and it can change so quickly based on the headline risks.”

The dollar strengthened 0.37% to 148.31 yen against the Japanese yen. Against the Swiss franc CHF=, the dollar weakened 0.07% to 0.882 after giving up gains in early trade. The greenback is trading down against both currencies so far this month.

The euro eased after hitting a five-month peak of USD 1.0947 on Tuesday as Ukraine said it was ready to support Washington’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia. The Kremlin said on Wednesday it was waiting for details from the US

Europe’s single currency has been flying high on the promise of massive fiscal spending by Germany, although the situation has become more complex after the Greens party vowed to block those plans and unveiled rival proposals.

The euro was trading down 0.27% at USD 1.0889. The currency has gained nearly 5% against the US dollar so far in March.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.13% to 103.57. It is on track to snap seven straight sessions of losses.

“There are so many, so many moving parts,” said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe Generale.

“We’re not seeing any safe haven in European assets this morning because of retaliation of the trade war,” Broux added.

The Bank of Canada trimmed its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% and warned of “a new crisis” as it tried to prepare the country’s economy for the damage that Trump’s tariffs could wreak.

Trump walked back on a pledge to double tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada to 50%, just hours after announcing the higher tariffs on Tuesday. The switch came after a Canadian official also backed off his own plans for a 25% surcharge on electricity distributed to several US states.

The US dollar weakened against the Canadian dollar, trading down 0.42% to CUSD 1.4372 per dollar. It is down 0.64% against the loonie in March.

The British Sterling eased after hitting a four-month high of USD 1.29900 on the session. It was up 0.17% to USD 1.29680.

“There was a brief moment of a relief because CPI came in lower than expected and that created some currency volatility, but I think the dollar direction is beginning to get a little worn out because of bigger trends and there’s so much headline risk with Ukraine-Russia war or tariffs,” said John Velis, Americas macro strategist at BNY.

(USD 1 = 0.9158 euros)

(Reporting by Yadarisa Shabong in Bengaluru and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Kim Coghill, Kirsten Donovan, Nick Zieminski, and Sandra Maler)

Safe-haven gold firms on weaker dollar, growth concerns

Gold prices gained 1% on Tuesday amid a weaker dollar and economic slowdown worries due to tariff wars, while investors strapped in for inflation data that could shed light on the future path of US interest rates.

Spot gold was 1% firmer at USD 2,917.79 an ounce as of 01:16 p.m. ET (1716 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.7% higher at USD 2,920.90.

The US dollar index hit its lowest level since mid-October. A softer dollar makes greenback-priced bullion more affordable for other currency holders.

“Gold is likely to remain supported amid ongoing market uncertainties, bolstering demand for the safe-haven asset. However, any positive developments in Russia-Ukraine negotiations could reduce risk premiums,” said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

The tariff policies implemented by US President Donald Trump against key trading partners have caused significant volatility in global markets and heightened concerns about economic growth.

Bullion is considered a hedge against uncertainties and tends to thrive in a low-interest environment since it is a non-yielding asset.

Market attention will be on Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index and Thursday’s Producer Price Index. According to a Reuters poll, February’s CPI is expected to have climbed 0.3%.

Traders are currently expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June.

“The gold price is already trading at a very high level due to the sharp rise since the start of the year, which limits the upside potential,” Commerzbank said in a note.

Spot silver added 2% to USD 32.77 per ounce. Platinum was up 1.9% at USD 976.0 and palladium lost 0.1% to USD 941.84.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Ishaan Arora; editing by Ed Osmond, Christina Fincher, and Vijay Kishore)

US yields edge higher as risk aversion eases

US Treasury yields drifted higher on Tuesday, rebounding after the yield on two-year notes hit five-month lows earlier, as risk-off sentiment eased in global markets a day after a Wall Street selloff.

The two-year Treasury yield was little changed at 3.891%, after hitting 3.83% during Asian hours, its weakest level since October 4.

The benchmark 10-year yields were up 3.2 bps at 4.244%, holding above a near 4-1/2-month low hit last week.

On Monday, two-year yields fell around 10 basis points in their biggest daily drop since September after US President Donald Trump declined to rule out a recession as a result of his tariff policies.

Wall Street stocks were lower on Tuesday, but declines were smaller compared with Monday’s sellfoff in a sign that sentiment was somewhat recovering.

“It’s challenging to decipher Trump’s policy and its impact on the Treasury market,” said Massimiliano Maxia, senior fixed income specialist at Allianz Global Investors.

Maxia is neutral on Treasuries, but said his view could change “if we have strong evidence of a significant weakening of the US economy. We have just seen some alarm bells as of now.”

But in one worrying sign for the bond market, a measure of default risk was creeping higher.

US short-dated credit default swaps, instruments used to hedge credit exposure, rose on Tuesday to their highest levels since the US election on November 5, reflecting creeping anxiety about the US debt ceiling.

One-year credit default swaps now trade at 45 basis points, according to S&P Global, up from 43 bps on Monday. The five-year CDS traded on Wednesday at 41 bps, also the highest since November 5.

Junk corporate bond spreads widened to more than 300 bps on Tuesday, their most since September, a sign that investor confidence is deteriorating as worries about a recession and global trade war rise.

US Treasury yields, however, were little moved after the release of economic data that met expectations. The latest job opening figures for January showed 7.7 million vacancies. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.1 basis points in February to 100.7.

“Optimism is fading a little bit, but it’s still far from certain that we’re going to see negative economic growth,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital Management. “It’s hard to draw a line through any one data point,” he added.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at 34.3 basis points, just below its level at Monday’s close.

“The distribution of possible outcomes has increased with the tariffs, and you could see a possible slowdown from job loss,” said Mike Sanders, portfolio manager and head of fixed income at Madison Investments.

“I think in general you’re going to have (Treasury) spreads just trade a little directionally with where equities are going to trade, but it’s going to be a bumpy couple of months until you see a conclusion of what’s getting implemented.”

On Tuesday, the US Treasury auctioned USD 58 billion in three-year Treasury notes. The offering received over USD 156 billion in competitive bids and came with a high yield of 3.908%, slightly higher than the 3.902% expected rate forecast.

(Reporting by Matt Tracy in Washington; editing by Christina Fincher, Rod Nickel, and Leslie Adler)

Oil settles slightly up on weaker dollar, US economic fears cap gains

NEW YORK – Oil prices settled slightly higher on Tuesday, helped by weakness in the dollar, but gains were capped by mounting fears of a US economic slowdown and the impact of tariffs on global economic growth.

Brent crude futures settled 28 cents, or 0.4%, higher at USD 69.56 a barrel after falling as low as USD 68.63 in early trade. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 22 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 66.25 a barrel after previous declines as well.

The dollar index hit a four-month low, making oil less expensive for overseas buyers.

But US stock prices, which also influence the oil market, fell again, adding to the biggest selloff in months. Both crude benchmarks fell 1.5% on Monday, when the S&P 500 posted its biggest daily drop since December 18 and the Nasdaq slid 4.0%, its biggest single-day percentage drop since September 2022.

Oil prices pared gains after US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he had instructed his commerce secretary to add an additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from Canada, bringing the total tariff on those products to 50%.

“That kind of drama is adding to the volatility here,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group.

Trump’s protectionist policies have shaken global markets. He has imposed, then delayed tariffs on major oil suppliers Canada and Mexico, while also raising duties on China, prompting retaliatory measures.

Over the weekend, Trump said a “period of transition” was likely and declined to rule out a US recession.

In supply, US crude oil production is poised to set a larger record this year than prior estimates, at an average 13.61 million bpd, the US Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.

Investors are waiting for US inflation data due on Wednesday for clues on the path of interest rates. They also are closely monitoring OPEC+ plans. The producer group has announced plans to increase output in April.

A scaling back of US tariffs would ease fears of inflation and economic contraction, said PVM analyst Tamas Varga, but the recent oil price plunge meant it was “hard to see OPEC+ going ahead with its plan and releasing oil back to the market from April.”

On Friday, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters that OPEC+ would go ahead with its April increase but may then consider other steps, including reducing production.

Brent is finding strong technical support at around USD 70 a barrel and may look to stage a bounce, said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, adding the OPEC+ supply response would be flexible, depending on market conditions.

“If oil prices fall below the USD 70 per barrel mark for an extended period, output hikes may be paused in our opinion. OPEC+ will also keep a careful eye on Trump’s Iran and Venezuela policies,” he said.

In the US, crude oil stockpiles rose by 4.2 million barrels in the week ended March 7, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

The report comes ahead of US government data on crude stockpiles due on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly in New York, Arunima Kumar in Mumbai, Nicole Jao in New York, and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Kirsten Donovan, and David Gregorio)

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