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Archives: Reuters Articles

Dollar down after data but set for ninth straight weekly climb

Dollar down after data but set for ninth straight weekly climb

NEW YORK, Sept 15 – The US dollar was lower on Friday, after data showed a dip in consumer sentiment, but the greenback was still poised for a ninth straight week of gains, while the yen weakened to a 10-month low.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary reading of its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 67.7 this month from a final reading of 69.5 in August and below the forecast of 69.1 among economists polled by Reuters. However, consumers saw inflation lower on both a one-year and five-year basis.

Earlier data from the Labor Department showed import prices increased 0.5% last month as fuel prices jumped, but underlying price pressures stayed subdued while a separate report from the New York Fed showed factory activity picked up in the state in September.

“None of the data currently points to a recession. Nevertheless, the fed futures still point to the end of next year, a lower rate,” said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet.com.

“If the credit markets are still convinced that when you increase rates as much as the Fed has, you eventually get a recession … where do people go? They go to the dollar.”

The Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting next week on Sept. 19-20 and the central bank is largely viewed as keeping interest rates unchanged, with a 97% expectation for no action, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

After edging higher earlier in the week, expectations for a 25 basis-point hike at the November meeting have declined to 30.6% from 43.6% a week ago, with a small chance of a cut being priced in as early as January.

The US dollar index was down 0.08% at 105.32, but was still poised for its ninth straight weekly gain, which would mark its longest weekly run since a 12-week streak of gains in 2014.

The greenback continued to strengthen against the yen, after the Japanese currency had a sharp move higher versus the dollar earlier in the week. The dollar was last up 0.25% at 147.84 yen after hitting a 10-month high of 147.96.

The euro was up 0.2% at USD 1.0666, having recovered slightly from Thursday’s six-month low of USD 1.0629 following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy announcement, in which the central bank raised rates to a record-high 4% but signaled it was likely done with hikes.

However, ECB policymakers pushed back on the idea the central bank was done with rate hikes, saying rates would be kept high for an extended period and could even be raised again if needed.

The euro was on track for a ninth straight weekly fall against the dollar.

The sterling declined 0.2% to USD 1.2386. Along with the Fed, the Bank of England will also make a policy announcement next week.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak in New York; Editing by Matthew Lewis and Hugh Lawson)

 

Gold rises 1% on US dollar weakness, safe-haven demand

Gold rises 1% on US dollar weakness, safe-haven demand

Sept 15 – Gold jumped 1% on Friday, helped by a weaker dollar and safe-haven buying after the United Auto Workers union kicked off strikes at three automakers in Detroit, while hopes around a likely pause in US interest-rate hikes lent further support.

Spot gold was up 0.7% at USD 1,924.27 per ounce by 1:56 p.m. EDT (1756 GMT). Bullion has risen 0.3% so far this week.

US gold futures settled 0.7% higher at USD 1,946.2 per ounce.

The dollar USD slipped 0.2% against its rivals following US data earlier in the day, making gold less expensive for other currency holders.

“Gold and silver are rallying on a wall of worry,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

United Auto Workers union launched simultaneous strikes at three factories owned by the “Detroit Three”, including Chrysler-owner Stellantis (STLAM), marking the most ambitious US industrial labor action in decades.

“The UAW strike looks like it could last some time given what the union is demanding. And the possible govt. shutdown at the end of the month is getting more press,” Wong said.

Gold is often used as a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty.

Market participants now look forward to more clarity on the interest rate outlook from the US Federal Reserve at their policy meeting next week, in which the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

“If the Fed leans a little bit more dovish next week, that would be significant and cause a rally in the gold market,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco.

Meanwhile, China’s physical gold premiums soared to a new high this week, amid strong demand to shore up a depreciating yuan and a lack of fresh import quotas.

Elsewhere, silver rose 1.9% to USD 23.07 per ounce, platinum gained 2.2% to USD 926.55 and palladium eased 0.3% at USD 1,247.35. All three metals were heading for weekly gains.

(Reporting by Harshit Verma and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)

Global equity funds draw big inflows as inflationary pressures ease

Global equity funds draw big inflows as inflationary pressures ease

Sept 15 – Global equity funds attracted substantial inflows in the week ending Sept. 13, buoyed by hopes the Federal Reserve might halt its rate increases amidst easing inflationary concerns, potentially boosting risk assets.

According to LSEG data, investors channeled approximately USD 9.95 billion into global equity funds, marking the most substantial net weekly acquisition since June 14.

Breaking it down regionally, US and Asian equity funds had inflows of roughly USD 9.7 billion and USD 1.62 billion, respectively. However, European funds were hit with outflows, shedding USD 662 million.

By sector, consumer discretionary funds saw an influx of about USD 867 million, and tech sector funds garnered around USD 474 million. Other sector-focused funds remained out of favor.

Last month’s US consumer prices saw their steepest rise in 14 months due to escalating gasoline costs, yet the year-on-year core inflation increase was the smallest in almost two years, which could potentially provide some leeway for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming Wednesday meeting.

Contrastingly, the allure of global money market funds appeared to wane. They registered a net intake of USD 10.65 billion, a sharp decline from the USD 60.5 billion in the preceding week.

Global bond funds recorded USD 531 million in outflows, a reversal from the inflows seen over the past three weeks. High-yield funds reported around USD 899 million in outflows, breaking their two-week buying streak. But both corporate and government bond funds observed inflows, netting USD 1.09 billion and USD 831 million, respectively.

Among commodities, precious metal funds continued their selling trend into a 16th week with USD 454 million in outflows. Energy funds also experienced a dip, registering USD 128 million in outflows, marking a shift from the previous two weeks of net purchases.

Data covering 28,218 emerging market funds highlighted a net exit of USD 1.95 billion from equity funds. Bond funds in these markets also faced headwinds, with a disposal of approximately USD 795 million, marking their seventh consecutive week of net selling.

(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

China adds fuel to global equity rally

The markets will have plenty of impetus for an equity rally at the European open, after better-than-consensus China data added to the optimism already in place from expectations for a peak in rates at the biggest central banks.

Signs that the recent flurry of support measures from Beijing are working to stabilise the economy showed up in August retail sales and factory production data released this morning.

But China’s embattled real-estate sector continued to send worrying signals, with the latest data also showing a deepening slump in property investment, a day after Moody’s cut the sector’s outlook to negative.

That couldn’t dampen the feel-good mood, which had already been emanating from Goldilocks U.S. macro indicators: Retail sales and producer prices are suggesting a robust economy, but are not hot enough to require more Fed rate hikes.

With traders all but certain the Fed will stay on pause next week, and following the ECB’s dovish hike yesterday, the narrative is building for looser global financial conditions.

The dollar remains king, with the euro swooning in the course of a very eventful few days. That sets the stage for another pivotal week ahead, featuring policy decisions from not just the Fed, but the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.

There will be plenty of opportunity to hear from ECB officials today, with the Eurogroup convening in Spain.

Boss Christine Lagarde is of course at the meeting, where the agenda includes updating the bloc’s finance ministers on goings-on at the central bank. The group will also discuss a replacement for outgoing ECB board member Fabio Panetta, who will take the helm at the Bank of Italy in November.

(Kevin Buckland)

 

Gold rises after China data boosts yuan against dollar

Sept 15 – Gold prices gained on Friday as the dollar eased against the yuan after promising China economic data boosted recovery hopes in the world’s top bullion consumer, although the possibility of further US. interest rate hikes kept investors on edge.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to USD 1,915.27 per ounce by 0537 GMT, while US gold futures were up 0.2% at USD 1,936.90.

The yuan hit two-week highs against the dollar after data showed China factory output and retail sales in August beat forecasts. A softer dollar makes greenback-priced bullion more attractive for overseas buyers.

Despite the gains, bullion was still on track for a small weekly decline after dropping to near USD 1,900 level, its lowest since Aug. 23, on Thursday.

“The outlook for rates to be kept high for longer has been keeping non-yielding gold prices under pressure,” said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG.

“Given the still-resilient economic conditions in the US, it does not seem to warrant the need for rate cuts anytime soon, with the timeline for cuts constantly pushed back into mid next year.”

Data on Thursday showed US. producer prices increased by the most in more than a year last month while retail sales also beat expectations, boosted by a surge in gasoline prices.

This comes after US consumer prices in August increased by the most in 14 months, keeping bets alive for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve after a likely pause next week.

Higher rates to curb inflation tend to lower demand for bullion, which yields no interest.

Encouraging Chinese data also supported other precious metals, with spot silver climbing 1.3% to USD 22.92 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.6% to USD 911.90 and palladium added 0.1% to USD 1,252.56, both looking poised for weekly gains.

(Reporting by  Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

Oil gains for third straight week on tight supply, China optimism

Oil gains for third straight week on tight supply, China optimism

BENGALURU, Sept 15 – Oil prices hit a 10-month high on Friday and posted a third weekly gain as supply tightness spearheaded by Saudi Arabian production cuts combined with optimism around Chinese demand to lift crude.

Brent crude futures rose 23 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at USD 93.93 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures was up 61 cents, or 0.7%, to close at USD 90.77 a barrel. Both contracts traded at 10-month highs on Tuesday for the fifth consecutive session, and gained about 4% on a weekly basis.

Oil prices are also on track for their biggest quarterly increase since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2022.

Supply concerns continue to be a driving force for prices since Saudi Arabia and Russia this month announced an extension of their combined supply cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day to the end of this year, said Fiona Cincotta, an analyst at City Index.

Better-than-expected industrial output and retail sales data in China have also boosted oil prices this week, with the country’s economic conditions considered crucial to oil demand for the rest of this year, Cincotta added.

Data on Friday showed Chinese oil refinery processing rose by nearly 20% from a year earlier as processors kept run rates high to capitalise on high global demand for oil products.

Expectations of moderating US oil output have also boosted prices in recent weeks, Third Bridge analyst Peter McNally said.

“Supply growth from the US appears to be limited as producers there have taken drilling activity down nearly 20% from last year’s peak,” McNally noted.

The US oil rig count rose by two this week to 515, the most since April, data from oilfield services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday. Compared to a year ago, however, the oil rig count is down by 84 units, the data showed.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan; Additional reporting by Natalie Grover and Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by David Goodman, Nick Zieminski, Chris Reese, and Paul Simao)

 

New ETF looks to tap hot market for zero-day options

New ETF looks to tap hot market for zero-day options

NEW YORK, Sept 14 – An exchange-traded fund (ETF) that started trading on Thursday offers investors a new way to participate in the hot market for short-dated equity options, a risky trading strategy that has enthralled markets over the last year.

Miami-based ETF sponsor Defiance ETFs LLC launched the Defiance Nasdaq-100 Enhanced Option Income ETF on Thursday, the first ETF to use daily options income generation, the ETF sponsor said in a press release.

The ETF seeks to tap into the dual popularity of short-dated options contracts and the heightened interest in ETFs that seek to generate income through a combination of selling options and investing in US large-cap stocks.

Short-dated options contracts, with a day or less to expiry – dubbed 0DTE (zero days to expiry) options – have grown popular with investors over the past year, often making up as much as half the daily trading volume in the options on major ETFs and indexes, including the S&P 500 and the Invesco QQQ ETF.

Their increased usage has sparked concerns about their risks and the potential for a volatility shock that could ripple out to the broader stock market.

Investors have also flocked to ETFs that look to generate income and reduce portfolio volatility by selling options against stocks.

One such ETF – the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF – has grown its assets to about USD 29.5 billion from about USD 12.4 billion a year ago. Assets at another, the Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF, have grown to USD 8.1 billion from USD 6.9 billion a year ago.

“If there is one thing that investors are eager to receive, it is a steady stream of income, and we hope to provide just that,” said Defiance ETFs’ Chief Executive Officer Sylvia Jablonski.

The new actively managed ETF, QQQY seeks monthly yield for investors by combining Treasuries and short-dated Nasdaq-100 index options. The fund will seek to generate income by selling 0DTE put options looking to capture the premium in these highly volatile derivatives contracts, the ETF sponsor said.

“QQQY is attempting to timely scratch two itches, potential income from an asset that doesn’t typically generate income and exposure to the sudden popularity of trading ODTE options,” said Lois Gregson, senior ETF analyst at FactSet Research Systems.

Gregson, however, warned the ETF’s reliance on the highly volatile 0DTE options could leave it vulnerable to losses.

“The fund is ‘betting’ the market will rise more often than fall,” Gregson said, noting that the portfolio manager would have to buy back the short put options potentially at a loss.

“The strategy is similar to picking up dimes in front of a bulldozer. The income potential is there, but there are times you could also get run over,” Gregson said.

Defiance ETFs is set to launch two other ETFs – the Defiance S&P 500 Enhanced Options Income ETF JEPY and Defiance R2000 Enhanced Options Income ETF IWMY, which will employ a similar strategy with exposure to the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 Indexes, respectively.

The success of the new ETF may hinge on the continued growth of interest in short-dated options, said Seth Golden, president of investment research firm Finom Group.

Golden said he will be watching liquidity and trading volume for the new product to gauge its viability.

The ETF’s shares were trading about flat at USD 20.13 at 12:45 p.m. (1645 GMT) with about 7,000 shares changing hands.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Richard Chang, Ira Iosebashvili, and Daniel Wallis)

 

Gold at 3-week low as strong US data lifts dollar, yields

Gold at 3-week low as strong US data lifts dollar, yields

Sept 14 – Gold prices held near a three-week low on Thursday after higher-than-expected US producer prices and retail sales data raised worries US interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer, boosting the dollar and bond yields.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to USD 1,909.05 per ounce by 1:47 p.m. EDT (1747 GMT), after touching USD 1,900.81, its lowest since Aug. 23. US gold futures settled little changed at USD 1,932.80.

“We saw some headline inflationary data that was hotter than expected and as a result, we are seeing yields tick higher once again and continue to pressure the spot gold market,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

Data showed US producer prices increased by 0.7% in August, the most in more than a year, while US retail sales increased by 0.6% over Reuters’ expectation of 0.2% during the same period.

The US dollar index jumped 0.6% to over six-month high, reducing gold’s appeal for overseas investors, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year note also ticked higher.

“There are concerns the Fed does have the possibility of continuing to raise interest rates or yields continue to rise and that does apply some pressure to the gold market,” Meger said.

Although markets are pricing in that the Fed would hold rates unchanged at their policy meeting next week, there’s a 39% probability of a rate rise in November, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Higher interest rates dull the appeal of bullion, which bears no interest.

Earlier in the day, The European Central Bank raised its key interest rate to a record high of 4% on Thursday, but signaled this was likely to be its final move.

However, the USD 1,900 level for gold is fairly well-supported and will attract some bargain hunting, analysts said.

Silver fell 0.8% to USD 22.66 per ounce after hitting a four-week low, while platinum rose 0.6% to USD 905.87.

Palladium fell 1% to USD 1,246.10, after touching a three-week peak.

(Reporting by Harshit Verma in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Brijesh Patel; editing by David Evans and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

China asks big banks to stagger and adjust dollar purchases – sources

China asks big banks to stagger and adjust dollar purchases – sources

SHANGHAI, Sept 14 (Reuters) – China’s central bank has asked some of the country’s biggest lenders to refrain from immediately squaring their foreign exchange positions in the market, and to run open positions for a while in order to alleviate downside pressure on the yuan, two sources with knowledge the matter said.

As part of this informal “window guidance”, banks have been asked not to square their positions in the inter-bank foreign exchange markets after any US dollar sales to clients, until their spot foreign exchange position hits a certain level, the sources said.

Most banks are allowed to run a net short or long foreign currency position in spot dollar-yuan markets, within defined limits.

The move would effectively mean some of the heavy dollar purchases by companies would be absorbed by banks and sit on their books for a while, thus partially reducing downward pressure on the sliding yuan.

The directive came from a meeting the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) held with a few commercial banks earlier this week, the sources said. Banks were also told that companies requiring to purchase USD 50 million or more will need to seek the central bank’s approval, Reuters reported.

China’s yuan CFXS has lost more than 5% against the dollar so far this year to trade 7.2735 per dollar on Thursday, becoming one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies for 2023.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment.

GOLDEN WEEK

The latest efforts by the PBOC to smooth currency movements come just ahead of China’s golden week holidays in early October, which traditionally sees a spurt in overseas travel and dollar demand.

The sources, who received the directive, said banks were also told to encourage their clients to hold off on dollar purchases.

Widening yield differentials with other major economies, particularly the United States, and a faltering domestic economic recovery have piled pressure on the yuan. Its steady fall has also led to a lopsided market as exporters retain their dollar earnings in deposits rather than convert them into yuan, or renminbi as the local currency is known in China.

“The source of the weakness in renminbi is very simply that interest rates in China are low, that activity in China is slow, therefore the rate of return of marginal capital invested in China is not as great as elsewhere, and therefore that impacts capital flows,” said Sid Mathur, head of Asia-Pacific macro strategy and emerging market research at BNP Paribas.

OVERSHOOT

China’s foreign exchange self-regulatory body said on Monday it would resolutely fend off risks of the yuan overshooting and pledged to take action when needed to correct one-sided and pro-cyclical activities, according to a statement published by the PBOC.

China has in recent months stepped up its efforts to slow the pace of yuan declines by setting persistently stronger-than-expected midpoint fixings. Earlier this month, it announced it would increase the supply of dollars by lowering the amount of foreign exchange that banks must set aside.

Chinese authorities “are simply smoothening the cycle. They want to avoid herding behavior. They want to avoid a scenario where the market feels that they might be losing control. And so they’re just using different administrative tools to smoothen price action,” Mathur said.

Sources told Reuters last month that China’s currency regulators asked some banks to reduce or postpone their purchases of US dollars in order to slow the yuan’s depreciation.

(Reporting by Shanghai Newsroom; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

 

Oil rises to highest in 2023 on tight supply expectations

Oil rises to highest in 2023 on tight supply expectations

HOUSTON, Sept 14 – Oil prices climbed on Thursday to their highest this year, as expectations of tighter supply outweighed worries about weaker economic growth and rising US crude inventories.

Brent crude rose USD 1.82, or 1.98%, to settle at USD 93.70, after touching USD 93.89, its highest since November 2022.

US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) gained USD 1.64, or 1.85%, to USD 90.16, closing above USD 90 for the first time since November.

On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency said Saudi Arabia and Russia’s extended oil output cuts will result in a market deficit through the fourth quarter. Prices briefly pulled back on a bearish US inventories report before resuming their climb.

“That this genuinely bearish stock report only led to a brief temptation to sell speaks volumes and underlines the market mentality,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.

Both benchmarks remained in technically overbought territory.

Hedge funds have been buying crude oil futures for the past two or three weeks as “fundamentals continue to get stronger, driven mostly by heavy demand for both gasoline and diesel,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

A day before the IEA report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued updated forecasts of solid demand and also pointed to a 2023 supply deficit if production cuts are maintained.

“The market is getting increasingly nervous about the sufficiency of supply,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital.

“Russia and Saudi are acting in a way that could materially constrain supplies as we get into the peak northern hemisphere demand season, for the winter period,” Kilduff added.

The European Central Bank raised its key interest rate to a record peak but signaled this was likely its final move to tame inflation.

Investors see a 97% likelihood the US Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in its next meeting on Sept. 20, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Meanwhile, China’s central bank said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves for the second time this year to boost liquidity and support the country’s economic recovery.

China is the world’s second-largest oil consumer and its economic recovery has remained choppy, worrying markets about demand.

(Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar in Houston, Alex Lawler in London; Additional reporting by Robert Harvey and Natalie Grover in London and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by Jane Merriman, David Gregorio, and David Evans)

 

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