Dollar up as risk sentiment sours, Treasury yields rise

NEW YORK, Oct 25 – The US dollar rose to a near 1-week high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, as investors’ appetite for riskier currencies faded following lackluster corporate results that raised worries over the economic outlook, and as Treasury yields rose.

Risk sentiment took a hit as tech giant Alphabet (GOOGL) slumped after its cloud division missed revenue estimates, while other mega-cap stocks also edged lower, pressured by rising US Treasury yields.

The dollar index, which measures its strength against a basket of six rivals, was 0.3% higher at
106.5, its highest level in nearly a week.

“I think it is mainly a risk backdrop story,” said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. “Weak risk appetite seems to be driving broad USD gains.

Benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields inched higher, resuming a move toward a 16-year peak of 5.0% briefly breached on Monday. The 10-year yield was last at 4.9506%.

Global financial markets have been gripped by a surge in US bond yields, which helped drive the dollar index to its highest in almost a year earlier this month.

Analysts, however, see limited room for yields and the dollar to extend gains.

“My inclination is to look at these gains as an opportunity to fade some of the dollar strength against certain currencies,” Scotiabank’s Osborne said.

Data on Wednesday showed sales of new US single-family homes surged to a 19-month high in September as the annual median house price dropped by the most since 2009 amid discounts offered by builders to woo buyers, but mortgage rates flirting with 8% could curb demand.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar jumped on Wednesday after a surprisingly high reading for inflation stoked speculation about a further hike in interest rates and slugged bond futures. But it erased all those gains to trade down 0.74% on the day.

“The interesting thing about Australia is that a lot of other central banks are in a very similar position. They have paused, the market’s hoping that will be it, but everyone is on tenterhooks hoping that inflation will remain well behaved, and in the case of Australia it has not,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart after the Bank of Canada held its key overnight rate at 5.0%, as expected, and forecast weak growth while leaving the door open to more rate hikes to tame inflation that could stay above target for another two years.

The US dollar was last up 0.41% against the Canadian currency.

The dollar also kept the yen pinned near the closely watched 150 threshold, with the Japanese currency last at 149.99 per dollar, with traders alert for any signs of intervention by Japanese authorities.

Pressure is mounting on the Bank of Japan to change its bond yield control as global interest rates rise. A hike to an existing yield cap set just three months ago is being discussed as a possibility in the run-up to next week’s policy meeting, Reuters cited sources as saying this week.

“There is a decent chance there will be another tweak to yield curve control,” said Foley. “If we don’t see that, it is quite possible that we will see the other side of 150 quite soon.”

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin was last up 1.83% at USD 34,539, holding near a roughly 18-month high hit on Tuesday.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency is up about 15% for the week, fuelled by speculation that an exchange-traded bitcoin fund is imminent.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore and Alun John in London; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore, Mark Potter, Mike Harrison, and Diane Craft)

Safe-haven gold gains on MidEast conflict, US data in focus

Oct 25 – Safe-haven gold gained on Wednesday, buoyed by continued conflict in the Middle East, while investors looked forward to key US economic data for further cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Spot gold was up 0.7% at USD 1,983.39 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. ET (1740 GMT), having declined in the previous two sessions and trading below a five-month high hit last week. US gold futures settled 0.4% higher at USD 1,994.9.

The geopolitical concerns are not going away in the short term, which will continue supporting gold, said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Israel’s military intensified its bombing of southern Gaza overnight, amid international calls for a pause in fighting.

Limiting bullion’s gains, the dollar index and benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields rose.

Investor attention turns to US third-quarter GDP figures due on Thursday and the US PCE price index on Friday which could impact the Federal Reserve’s outlook on interest rates.

Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Markets are widely expecting the Fed to keep rates on hold at its policy meeting next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

If the data shows a slowdown, it will give the Fed more reason not to raise interest rates, which should be very supportive for gold and see prices back above USD 2,000, added Haberkorn.

US business activity ticked higher in October while output in the eurozone took a surprise turn for the worse, surveys showed on Tuesday, underscoring the diverging path for central bankers in the two regions.

On the physical front, China’s gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2023 climbed 7.32% from a year earlier on increasing demand amid economic recovery, the China Gold Association said.

Spot silver fell 0.2% to USD 22.90 per ounce, platinum gained 2.4% to USD 905.41 and palladium was down 0.2% to USD 1,117.03.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and additional reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Mark Potter and Shailesh Kuber)

Oil prices settle up about 2% on worries about Middle East

NEW YORK, Oct 25 – Oil prices rose about 2% on Wednesday, buoyed by worries about conflict in the Middle East, but gains were capped by higher US crude inventories and gloomy economic prospects in Europe.

Brent crude futures rose USD 2.06, or 2.34%, to settle at USD 90.13 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose USD 1.65, or 1.97%, to close at USD 85.39 a barrel.

Prices fell early in the session but reversed declines on heightened geopolitical risk, said Price Futures analyst Phil Flynn.

Israel stepped up bombings of south Gaza, officials said, and violence flared elsewhere in the Middle East. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised statement that Israel is preparing a ground invasion of Gaza.

US, crude inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels in the latest week to 421.1 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported, exceeding the 240,000-barrel gain expected by analysts in a Reuters poll.

The EIA data “is more bearish because it’s a big switch from a big draw in the API data to a build in the EIA data,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed a larger-than-expected draw in crude stocks.

Adding to weak European economic data in recent weeks, European Central Bank data showed bank lending across the eurozone came to a near standstill last month, further evidence that the 20-nation bloc may be close to a recession.

Crude demand could get a boost in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, which approved a bill to issue 1 trillion yuan (USD 137 billion) in sovereign bonds and allow local governments to issue new debt from their 2024 quota to boost the economy. Yet Beijing also took steps that could limit crude demand, such as putting a ceiling for its oil refining capacity at 1 billion metric tons by 2025 to streamline its vast oil processing sector and curb carbon emissions.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York; Additional reporting by Natalie Grover, Stephanie Kelly, Laura Sanicola, and Muyu Yu; Editing by Mark Potter, Mike Harrison, and David Gregorio)

Philippines seeks gasoline price cut with higher ethanol blend

MANILA, Oct 24 – The Philippine government aims to lower domestic pump prices for gasoline by calling for a higher ethanol blend of 20% on a voluntary basis, from the current mandatory 10%, Energy Secretary Raphael Lotilla said on Tuesday.

In a press briefing, Lotilla said increasing the ethanol blend will result in a more than one peso per litre reduction in the price of gasoline.

The government has discussed the measure with local oil companies and is aiming to get approval from the Bioefuels Board by end-2023, said Lotilla, who also chairs the regulatory body.

“This is primarily a price-mitigation measure because (imported) ethanol is especially important as it is cheaper than the price of gasoline,” he said.

It was among several measures discussed during a meeting with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., which also include shortening the “trigger period” for providing subsidies to the public transport sector, and simplifying the requirements, the minister added.

Under the annual budget programme, the government only provides subsidies when the benchmark Dubai oil price stays above USD 80 per barrel for three months.

The government now wants to release the subsidies based on a shorter trigger period of one month, Lotilla said.

The Southeast Asian country is battling inflation, which in September accelerated to 6.1% on an annual basis, the fastest pace in four months and still well above the central bank’s target range of 2% to 4%.

(Reporting by Enrico Dela Cruz; Editing by Kanupriya Kapoor and Stephen Coates)

Gold gains on softer US bond yields, Mideast uncertainty

Oct 24 – Gold prices rebounded on Tuesday as benchmark U.S. Treasury yields pulled back, while investors awaited economic data for guidance on interest rates and monitored growing tensions in the Middle East.

Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,976.09 per ounce by 0529 GMT, while US gold futures were steady at USD 1,987.10.

Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield declined, after briefly rising above 5% on Monday and further threatening an economic slowdown on higher borrowing costs.

“The importance of geopolitics and gold is really highlighted very clearly by how strong gold has been despite stronger bond yields,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Once markets digest geopolitics, yields would become more of a meaningful factor, he added.

Gold is seen as a safe investment during times of crisis and has surged about 9% in the past two weeks on war worries, hitting five-month highs on Oct. 20.

Investors are keeping watch on the Middle East war as Israel’s military issued a statement suggesting that Israel had no intention of curbing its strikes on Gaza Strip and hinting it was well prepared for a ground assault.

Markets also await global flash PMIs due later in the day, US third-quarter GDP figures on Thursday and the US PCE price index on Friday to evaluate how it would affect the Federal Reserve’s monetary path.

For the data to have any kind of meaningful influence, it would have to be either a much better or a much worse outcome than expected, Spivak said.

Spot gold may retest a support of USD 1,963 per ounce, a break below which open the way towards USD 1,942-USD 1,951 range, according to according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. TECH/C

Spot silver was up 0.5% to USD 23.09 an ounce, platinum fell 0.2% to USD 894.96 and palladium firmed 1.1% to 1,129.90.

(Reporting by Swati Verma and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Varun H K)

Treasuries relief, China grief

Oct 24 – Investors hoping for a reprieve from the US bond-selling frenzy got their wish on Monday, which should bode well for Asian markets on Tuesday, although the doubts about how long the calm lasts are bound to swirl.

The regional economic calendar on Tuesday is light, the highlights being South Korean producer price inflation for September, October’s flash purchasing managers index data from Japan and Australia, and a speech from Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock.

All of these could trigger short-term moves in the respective currencies, which all gained ground to varying degrees against the beaten-down dollar on Monday.

September’s PMIs showed that manufacturing activity in Japan and Australia shrank and services sector activity grew, although growth in Japan was the slowest this year.

The big picture, however, is still dominated by the ebb and flow of the US Treasuries market. The 10-year yield finally broke above 5.0% on Monday but quickly tumbled, and the peak-to-trough slide of 20 basis points pushed US stocks into positive territory for most of the day and dragged down the dollar.

All of that paves the way for a ‘risk-on’ day across Asia on Tuesday, right? Not necessarily.

Wall Street gave back most of its gains in late trading, with only the Nasdaq out of the three main indexes closing in the green – an intuitive move, perhaps, given the tech sector’s sensitivity to interest rates.

And while a broad easing of financial conditions on Monday – lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar – should support emerging market assets, Wall Street’s late downward drift will warrant caution.

So will the latest signals from China, which continues to post substantial capital outflows.

According to Goldman Sachs, outflows in September jumped to USD 75 billion, the biggest monthly figure since 2016, up from a still hefty $42 billion in August.

“The unfavorable interest rate spread between China and the US will likely imply persistent depreciation and outflow pressures in coming months,” Goldman analysts warned.

Blue chip Chinese stocks on Monday hit their lowest level since February, 2019, and given China’s weight in Asian and emerging market equity indexes, Tuesday could be a challenge.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan and MSCI global emerging market indexes are both down around 13% over the past three months and on Monday both hit their lowest level since Nov. 11 last year.

Japan’s yen and bonds will be under the spotlight again on Tuesday after the yen briefly slipped below 150.00 per dollar and the 10-year yield hit a fresh decade-high on speculation the Bank of Japan could tweak its yield curve control policy later this month.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

– Japan flash manufacturing PMI (October)

– Australia flash PMI (October)

– South Korea producer price inflation (September)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

Wall Street ends mixed as Treasury yields ease, focus turns to earnings

NEW YORK, Oct 23 – US stocks wavered to a mixed close on Monday as benchmark US Treasury yields backed down from 5% and investors shifted their focus to this week’s high-profile earnings and closely watched economic data.

The S&P 500 index ended modestly lower, while a host of interest rate-sensitive momentum stocks buoyed the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index to a higher close.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched its fourth straight daily drop.

“The story continues to be about interest rates, and to some extent switching from ‘higher for longer’ to ‘how much higher for how much longer?'” said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors in New York. “The market has accepted the idea that the Fed is not going to lower rates any time soon.”

The tech-heavy Nasdaq racked up the largest gains among Wall Street’s major indexes, while the blue-chip Dow was nominally lower.

The S&P 500 ended below its 200-day moving average, a closely watched technical level, for the second straight session.

The week ahead promises to be eventful for earnings, with reports by nearly one-third of the companies in the S&P 500.

These include megacap momentum drivers, including Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Alphabet Inc (GOOGL), Meta Platforms Inc (META), and Amazon.com (AMZN), along with heavy-hitting industrials such as General Motors Co (GM), Ford Motor Co (F) and Boeing Co (BA).

“With nearly a third of the S&P reporting this week, investors are hoping these ‘magnificent seven’ companies will end up surprising to the upside,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York.

So far, 86 of the companies in the S&P 500 have posted earnings. Of those, 78% have beaten expectations, LSEG data showed.

Analysts see aggregate S&P 500 earnings for the July-September period growing 1.2% year-on-year, slightly below the 1.6% growth projected at the start of the month, according to LSEG.

The Commerce Department on Thursday will announce third-quarter gross domestic product, seen accelerating to 4.3%. Its wide-ranging Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, due on Friday, is expected to show annual headline and core inflation cooling down to 3.4% and 3.7%, respectively.

“The Fed wants to slow inflation at a quicker pace than it slows economic growth, and it’s doing so,” Pursche added. “That’s the classic definition of a soft landing.”

Geopolitical turmoil is also on the radar, with market participants looking for potential signs the Israel-Hamas conflict could broaden or escalate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 190.87 points, or 0.58%, to 32,936.41; the S&P 500 lost 7.12 points, or 0.17%, at 4,217.04; and the Nasdaq Composite added 34.52 points, or 0.27%, at 13,018.33.

Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, communication services notched the biggest gain, while energy shares suffered the largest percentage drop.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) surged 3.3% after J.P. Morgan upgraded the pharmacy chain operator to “overweight” from “neutral.”

Chevron (CVX) fell 3.7% after the company said it would buy smaller rival Hess Corp (HES) in a USD 53 billion all-stock deal. Hess dipped 1.1%.

Agricultural sciences firm FMC (FMC) tumbled 13.2% after the company lowered its third-quarter guidance.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 2.10-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.04-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 58 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 14 new highs and 514 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 10.80 billion shares, compared with the 10.67 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Stephen Culp; Additional reporting by Shubham Batra and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Chang)

Ten-year US Treasury yield slips after hitting 5%

WASHINGTON, Oct 23 – The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note declined on Monday after briefly rising above 5.0%, hitting the July 2007 milestone that it briefly attempted to scale last week and further threatening an economic slowdown on higher borrowing costs.

The run-up in yields on the 10-year Treasury note, seen as a safe haven in times of economic uncertainty and a benchmark for borrowing costs around the world, has been driven by investors pricing in stronger US growth as well as fiscal slippage.

Yields at the long end rose quickly after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the US economy’s strength and hot labor market might warrant tighter financial conditions.

The 10-year yield was briefly bid at a 16-year high of 5.001% on Thursday, breaking 5% again on Monday morning before slipping to 4.83%. It has risen 160 basis points since mid-May.

Yields have been tempered by the threat of an expanding conflict in the Middle East, which has caused investors to turn to the safe haven of US government bonds after Hamas fighters attacked Israel on Oct. 7.

“I think what you’ll see is a greater flow of foreign capital going to the United States where investors are going to seek a safe harbor,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief economist at The Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, New Jersey.

The 30-year bond on Monday posted its largest daily fall since mid-May. Its yield has slipped 9.8 basis points to 4.98%.

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman revealed Monday that he shared Baumohl’s sentiments, disclosing that he covered his previous bets against Treasuries on his expectation that the war would push more investor dollars toward US Treasuries.

The yield on the two-year Treasury note last stood at 5.06%.

The yield curve between the two-year and 10-year Treasury is the steepest it has been since mid-July. It last stood at minus 22.7.

The Treasury Department on Monday auctioned two sets of Treasury bills: USD 75 billion in 13-week bills and USD 68 billion in 26-week bills. More supply will come to the market this week in the form of a USD 51 billion auction by the Treasury of 2-year notes on Tuesday, USD 52 billion in 5-year notes on Wednesday, and USD 38 billion in 7-year notes on Thursday.

Several sets of economic data will be published this week that could inform the Fed’s rate path, including the latest GDP read on Thursday and personal consumption expenditures on Friday.

October 23 Monday 3:02PM New York / 1902 GMT

	Price	Current Yield %	Net Change (bps)
Three-month bills	5.3075	5.4653	-0.006
Six-month bills	5.3125	5.5459	0.013
Two-year note	99-226/256	5.0624	-0.022
Three-year note	99-80/256	4.8756	-0.048
Five-year note	99-68/256	4.7932	-0.069
Seven-year note	98-176/256	4.8496	-0.078
10-year note	92-140/256	4.8375	-0.086
30-year bond	86-168/256	4.9894	-0.098

(Reporting by global markets team; Editing by Jonathan Oatis, Ros Russell and Alison Williams)

Dollar falls as Treasury yields retreat

NEW YORK, Oct 23 – The US dollar fell against a basket of currencies on Monday, tracking a retreat in US Treasury yields from the 5% level hit earlier in the session, and as traders awaited fresh US economic data due later this week.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note declined on Monday after briefly rising above 5.0%, hitting the July 2007 milestone that it briefly attempted to scale last week and further threatening an economic slowdown on higher borrowing costs.

Traders are on watch for several events this week, including a European Central Bank meeting, and the release of US GDP data and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

“A big week of data with eyes on US GDP on Thursday, plus BoC (Bank of Canada) and ECB (European Central Bank) in the mix, and of course geopolitical risk remaining incredibly elevated is really denting traders’ desire to do much as the week gets underway,” said Michael Brown, market analyst at Trader X in London.

But the main news on Monday was the yield on 10-year US Treasuries reaching as high as 5.021%, the latest stage of a relentless sell-off in government bond markets, driven by investors accepting central banks will keep rates persistently high, particularly in the United States, an increase in supply of bonds and widening term premia.

The 10-year yield was last at 4.8375%.

Besides that, the risk of Israel’s war with the Islamist group Hamas becoming a wider regional conflict is keeping markets on edge, as Israeli air strikes battered Gaza early on Monday, and the United States dispatched more military assets to the region.

The dollar index, which measures the currency’s strength against a basket of six rivals, was 0.6% lower at 105.56. The index had risen as high as 106.33 earlier in the session.

The surge in US Treasury yields since mid-July has boosted the US dollar’s appeal relative to other currencies and helped lift the US dollar index more than 6%, but the index has made little headway since early October.

“It’s definitely interesting and surprising that neither the sell-off in long bonds nor the Middle East situation and subsequent haven demand have managed to spark much demand,” Trader X’s Brown said.

“I remain bullish, however, with the core US economic outperformance theme continuing to ring true against G10 peers, as this week’s GDP figures should prove,” he said.

Barclays analysts were less sure the dollar had much further to go, however, pointing to stretched long dollar positioning and a smaller likelihood of further rises in long-dated yields without a reassessment of the Fed’s rate outlook.

The Japanese yen last traded at 149.625 per dollar, after slipping as low as 150.14, a level last seen on Oct. 3.

Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo, said it seemed like a set of investors were betting the BOJ would defend the 150 level, even as others saw rising US yields as a reason to keep pushing the dollar up.

The ECB meets on Thursday, and a poll by Reuters shows while it is done raising rates it won’t begin easing until at least July 2024. It raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points in September.

The euro was up 0.73% on the day.

The Canadian dollar rose 0.3% against the greenback on Monday, ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada interest rate announcement.

The central bank is probably done raising interest rates and will hold them at 5.00% for at least six months, according to a Reuters poll of economists that found a majority expecting a reduction in the second quarter of 2024 as the economy slows.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up 2.9% on the day at USD 30,859, a fresh 3-month high, amid investor enthusiasm about the possibility of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; additional reporting by Vidya Ranganathan and Alun John; Editing by Mark Potter, Nick Zieminski, and Jonathan Oatis)

Leveraged funds’ record short Treasuries bets surge again

ORLANDO, Florida, Oct 23 – Leveraged funds trading US Treasuries futures have increased their record net short position across the curve, which will do little to soothe growing concerns among regulators about the potential financial stability risks these bets pose.

Hedge funds have rapidly built up short positions in US Treasuries futures this year as part of the so-called ‘basis trade’, a leveraged arbitrage play profiting from price differences between cash bonds and futures.

The Bank for International Settlements has warned that the huge build-up in speculators’ Treasuries positions “is a financial vulnerability”, and a recent Fed paper said it warrants “diligent monitoring”.

The price difference between cash bonds and futures is tiny, but funds make their money from high levels of leverage in the repo market and the sheer volume of trade.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data for the week ending October 17 show that leveraged accounts – those funds and speculators more likely to be active in the basis trade – grew across the two-, five- and 10-year space by 250,000 contracts to a total 4.71 million contracts.

That is significantly larger than the peak combined net short position from 2019 of just over 4 million contracts.

The move was particularly strong at the shorter end of the curve. Leveraged accounts increased net short position in two-year futures by 133,000 contracts to 1.554 million contracts and by 92,000 contracts in the five-year space to 1.753 million.

That’s a whisker from the two-year record net short of 1.558 million contracts in 2019, and a fresh record five-year net short.

A short position is essentially a wager an asset’s price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. In bonds falling prices indicate higher yields, and vice versa.

But funds play Treasuries futures for other reasons, like relative value trades, and this year, the basis trade.

These trades appear to be a key factor behind the US bond market’s steep decline in recent months, but by no means the only one.

Worries over the US government’s fiscal health, increased debt issuance from Treasury, the Fed’s ongoing ‘quantitative tightening’ program, stronger-than-expected economic growth, and a reassessment of the interest rate outlook have all contributed to the extraordinary bond selloff recently.

Yields across the curve last week hit their highest levels since 2006-07, and on Thursday the entire Treasury curve from one-month to 30-year yield maturities was within half a basis point of being above 5%.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters; Writing by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Miral Fahmy)

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