Gold set for third weekly gain as Middle East worries reign

Oct 27 – Gold prices were poised for a third consecutive weekly gain on Friday as the Middle East conflict kept investors drawn towards safety of bullion despite a higher-for-longer U.S. interest rate backdrop.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to USD 1,987.78 per ounce by 0555 GMT. US. gold futures GCcv1 were steady at USD 1,997.80.

“Gold prices will be a function of the Israel-Hamas conflict for as long as things are at risk of escalating,” said Kyle Rodda, financial market analyst at Capital.com.

Israeli forces executed their biggest ground attack in Gaza in their war with Hamas overnight as anger grew in the Arab world over Israel’s unrelenting airstrikes on the besieged Palestinian territory.

“The yellow metal is commanding a hefty geopolitical premium. It will need continuous feed of concerning geopolitical developments to keep it afloat at current levels,” said Praveen Singh, associate vice-president at BNP Paribas’ Sharekhan.

Spot gold has gained about 9% as investors sought refuge from the potential fallout of the Israel-Hamas war that escalated earlier this month.

But the lingering prospects of US interest rates staying higher for longer have kept prices below the USD 2,000 ceiling last breached in May.

Investor focus is also on the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index due later in the day for cues on what to expect from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.

“Gold is holding where it is because of geopolitical risks, with prices diverging from the typical fundamental drivers … if it were a factor of real yields and the dollar, gold would be lower,” Rodda added.

The dollar was set for a weekly gain on Friday, while U.S. Treasury yields edged 0.2% higher after data showed the U.S. economy surged at the fastest pace in nearly two years in the third quarter.

In other metals, spot silver rose 0.3% to USD 22.87 per ounce, platinum climbed 0.8% to USD 907.17 and palladium added 0.5% to USD 1,138.59.

(Reporting by Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

Oil rises more than USD1 on fears of spread of Middle East conflict

SINGAPORE, Oct 27 – Oil prices rose by over $1 on Friday as reports that the U.S military struck Iranian targets in Syria raised concerns of a widening of the Israel-Hamas conflict that could impact supply from the key Middle East producing region.

Brent crude futures for December rose USD 1.32, or 1.5%, to USD 89.25 a barrel by 0638 GMT. The US West Texas Intermediate contract for December climbed USD 1.29, also 1.6%, to USD 84.50 a barrel.

The strikes on two facilities in eastern Syria used by the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and groups it backs was in response to recent attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria, the Pentagon said on Thursday. Those attacks have increased since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict on Oct. 7.

Though the strike did not directly impact supply, it
increases fears that the conflict in the Gaza Strip between Israel, backed by the US, and Hamas may spread and disrupt supply from major crude producer Iran, which backs Hamas. A wider war could also impact shipments from Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, and other large producers in the Gulf.

Both Brent and WTI are on track to post their first weekly drop in three weeks as the geopolitical premium built on these fears has ebbed as there has been no disruption of oil supply outside of the immediate region of the fighting.

“As a trader I’m going to have to say we are somewhat out of our league here – trying to ascribe a value to geopolitics when no meaningful supply has been disrupted outside of the Levant,” said Kelvin Yew, a senior oil trader at Ocean Leonid Investments.

Israeli forces carried out their biggest Gaza ground attack in their 20-day-old war with Hamas overnight, angering the Arab world.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had said Israeli troops were still preparing for a full ground invasion, while the United States and other countries urged Israel to delay, fearing it could ignite hostilities on other Middle East fronts.

“… (It) remains incredibly difficult even for the most knowledgeable regional watchers to make high conviction calls about the trajectory of the current crisis as the redlines that could bring more players onto the battlefield remain largely indiscernible,” RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said in a note.

Goldman Sachs analysts have kept their first quarter 2024 Brent crude price forecast at $95 a barrel but added that lower Iranian exports could cause baseline prices to rise by 5%.

Prices could jump 20% in the less likely scenario of an interruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz where 17% of global oil production transit, they said in a note.

Voluntary supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which will be in place until the end of the year, are tightening markets globally and supporting prices, analysts said.

(Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Sam Holmes and Christian Schmollinger)

Japan to respond to FX moves with ‘strong sense of urgency’ -finmin

TOKYO, Oct 27 – Japan will continue to respond to the currency market “with a strong sense of urgency,” Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters on Friday, as the yen weakened past 150 against the US dollar.

“It’s important for currencies to move stably reflecting fundamentals,” Suzuki said. “Excessive currency volatility is undesirable.”

Suzuki, while repeating his usual mantra on market moves, declined to comment further when asked whether there had been any recent currency intervention.

The Japanese currency broke past 150 yen to the dollar this week to reach its weakest level since October last year when authorities intervened in the market to stem the weakness.

The 150 yen line is perceived by investors as a danger zone that could trigger currency intervention by Japanese authorities.

(Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto and Kantaro Komiya; Editing by Chang-Ran Kim and Jamie Freed)

Ominous signal: Wall Street slides despite yield slump

Oct 27 – Asian markets look to round off a difficult week with a flourish on Friday, but ominous signals from US trading on Thursday – stocks closed in the red again despite a steep decline in bond yields – do not auger well.

The conditions for a sharp rebound on Wall Street were in place – third quarter US GDP beat forecasts, and the ‘soft landing’ narrative was bolstered by some signs of cooling inflation and a sharp pullback in yields.

But not only did stocks fail to claw back any of Wednesday’s heavy losses, they fell almost as much again, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new lows since May.

This is the backdrop to Friday’s open in Asia, where Japanese economic data, bonds, and currency will again be under intense scrutiny ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan policy meeting.

The main data release in Asia on Friday will be consumer price inflation in Tokyo for September. Core consumer inflation in the Japanese capital is expected to have held steady at a 2.5% annual rate in October, according to a Reuters poll, the lowest since July last year.

The BOJ next week is set to raise its national core consumer inflation forecast for the fiscal year ending in March 2024 to near 3% from the current 2.5% projection made in July, sources told Reuters.

The BOJ is inching closer to ending negative interest rates and phasing out ultra-accommodative monetary policy. Twenty-five of 28 economists polled by Reuters expect no policy change next week, but the remaining three – at Barclays, JP Morgan, and UBS – think the BOJ will begin unwinding its easy stance then.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Thursday called for Japan to make a “total break” from its deflationary past, and markets continued to test the BOJ’s resolve.

The yen on Thursday sank below 150.00 per dollar to its weakest since October 21 last year. The low that particular day near 152 per dollar was the yen’s weakest level in 32 years.

There has been no yen-supporting intervention to temper the current exchange rate depreciation, but the BOJ has been more active in the bond market, where the 10-year yield hit a decade-high on Thursday at 0.89%.

In China, meanwhile, industrial sector profit figures for the first nine months of the year are on the docket Friday.

Year-to-date profits at China’s industrial firms have been falling every month since July last year, and at a double-digit pace every month this year. The good news, however, is the pace of decline has been easing since March.

China’s main CSI 300 index is flat for the week but down almost 5% this month, while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is down 1.75% and 4.5%, respectively.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

– Tokyo CPI inflation (September)

– China industrial profits (Sept, YTD)

– Australia producer price inflation (Q3)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

US yields down on day after weak inflation, income figures

Oct 26 – US Treasury yields fell on Thursday following the release of weaker-than-expected US inflation and disposable income data, supporting market sentiment that interest rates are at, or near, their peak.

The benchmark yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 10.6 basis points at 4.847%. It breached 5% on Monday after doing so last week for the first time in 16 years.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 10.4 basis points at 4.988%.

The closely watched gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at -19.7 bps.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 7.9 basis points at 5.042%.

Yields have rallied in October on expectations the US Federal Reserve will maintain a higher-for-longer rates course in the face of persistent inflation.

But yields moved lower on Thursday after the release of several economic datapoints, including headline GDP of 4.9% which came in line with expectations.

A measure of inflation, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), came in weaker than expected at 2.4%, its lowest since the fourth quarter of 2020.

“So that at the margin maybe underscored the expectation that central banks are done hiking, giving the markets a bit more optimism,” said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income at Action Economics in San Francisco.

The data showed consumer spending remained strong in the third quarter, which analysts have pointed to as a major factor in the economy’s resilience.

But disposable personal income increased only 1.9% to USD 95.8 billion, in the third quarter, a significant decline from the 6.1% jump to USD 296.5 billion seen in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, new unemployment claims rose 10,000 last week from the prior week to 210,000.

“Today’s numbers suggest there’s still a lot of momentum in the economy, but that there are several headwinds on the horizon,” Rupert said.

Yields fell further on Thursday after the US Treasury Department auctioned USD 38 billion in seven-year notes at a high yield of 4.908%.

The auction followed weak sales of five-year notes on Wednesday, which helped boost yields.

The seven-year sale was “on the market,” extending the rally in government bonds seen throughout the day, according to Lou Brien, economic strategist at DRW Trading Group.

The yield on existing seven-year notes has fallen 2.5 bps to 4.893% after the auction.

Several sets of data are slated for Friday which will further paint the US economic picture and inform the Fed’s rate path. These include September personal income and spending figures and October consumer sentiment data.

October 26 Thursday 3:03 PM New York / 1903 GMT

	Price	Current Yield %	Net Change (bps)
Three-month bills	5.32	5.4666	-0.015
Six-month bills	5.31	5.5466	-0.022
Two-year note	99-236/256	5.0415	-0.079
Three-year note	99-78/256	4.8789	-0.097
Five-year note	100-86/256	4.7986	-0.117
Seven-year note	98-148/256	4.8687	-0.108
10-year note	92-124/256	4.8466	-0.106
30-year bond	86-168/256	4.9895	-0.102

(Reporting by Matt Tracy; editing by Christina Fincher, Sharon Singleton, and Giles Elgood)

Mideast risks cushion safe-haven gold despite strong US data

Oct 26 – Gold ticked higher on Thursday as steady safe-haven demand fuelled by the Middle East conflict helped bullion weather pressure from strong US data that quelled recession fears.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at USD 1,986.39 per ounce by 1:50 p.m. ET (1750 GMT). Earlier in the session, prices were just shy of the five-month high hit on Friday.

US gold futures settled 0.1% higher at USD 1,997.4.

The US economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the third quarter, again defying dire warnings of a recession issued since 2022.

The number of people filing new claims for state unemployment benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 210,000 during the week ending Oct. 21 from 200,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department reported. Claims are at the very low end of their range of 194,000 to 265,000 for this year.

The data “paint the picture of a very strong US economy,” supporting the narrative that the Fed might need to raise rates more, which is negative for gold, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

“I am surprised we are not seeing a big move downward in gold. I think there is a realization that geo-political risks are not going away anytime soon.”

The US dollar rose 0.1%, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers.

Gold has gained 9% over the past two weeks as investors sought refuge from the potential fallout of the Israel-Hamas conflict. But the lingering prospects of higher interest rates have softened any upside in non-yielding bullion.

In Europe, the ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected, snapping an unprecedented streak of 10 consecutive hikes.

Focus shifts to the PCE price index due on Friday for cues on what to expect from the Fed’s policy meeting next week.

Silver slipped 0.4% to USD 22.79 an ounce, platinum was steady at USD 902.74 and palladium gained 0.8% to USD 1,134.86.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and additional reporting by Sherin Elizabeth in Bengaluru; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil, Richard Chang, and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

China’s pump-priming spurs investor bets on further monetary easing

SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, Oct 26 – As China’s government speeds up spending plans to strengthen an economic recovery that has spluttered this year, investors are betting the central bank will help out by easing monetary policy further.

Yuan interest rate swaps CNYIRS moved swiftly lower after the government on Tuesday announced a 1 trillion yuan (USD 136.69 billion) sovereign bond issue and also said provincial governments would be allowed to bring forward borrowings.

The announcement came on the same day that sources told Reuters that President Xi Jinping made his first known visit to the central bank and as the government wealth Fund Central Huijin Investment vowed to keep buying in the stock market.

“We continue to expect more policy support to come,” said Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS.

Wang expects banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to be cut to facilitate the upcoming massive government borrowings, along with other monetary and fiscal measures, including a reduction in the policy interest rate.

The People’s Bank of China has cut both the RRR and its main policy rate twice this year.

The one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate, a key policy rate, has been lowered twice by a total of 25 basis points so far this year, to 2.50%.

But borrowing costs in the world’s second-largest economy remain elevated as authorities try to keep monetary conditions stimulative without deviating from a longer-term mission of reducing leverage in the property and municipal sectors while trying to manage a weak yuan.

The interest rate on one-year AAA-rating negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs), which measure the short-term inter-bank borrowing costs, is at a six-month high of 2.5505%, about 5 basis points higher than the MLF rate the central bank charges financial institutions.

“Cash conditions have been relatively tight for some time, so an RRR cut could replenish the liquidity drained by the new bond issuance as banks will invest in those new bonds,” said a trader at a foreign bank.

“But if market rates continue to go up after the RRR cut, policymakers will have to cut policy rates.”

WAYS TO EASE

Several global investment banks, including J.P.Morgan and Goldman Sachs, forecast a 25-basis-point RRR cut in the fourth quarter of this year.

The sovereign bond issuance approval supported “our call for a 25 bp RRR cut and a 10 bp policy rate cut in Q4,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said.

That expectation led to China’s benchmark 10-year government bond futures CFTZ3 rallying to a two-week high of 101.795 on Thursday. In the derivatives market, one-year interest rate swaps, which show investor expectations of future yields, have fallen 6 basis points this week to 2.03%.

Money markets could face another huge liquidity shortfall in November and December when a large number of MLF loans mature, and the expectation is that the PBOC will replace those funds, even if the excess cash weighs on the yuan exchange rate.

The PBOC has already injected 2.617 trillion yuan (USD 357.60 billion) in short-term cash over the past seven trading days.

PBOC lending via MLF loans is at its highest in more than two years at 5.675 trillion yuan, leading to speculation that it’s easier for the central bank to cut the RRR to replace this funding. Of that, 1.5 trillion yuan matures this year.

“I think the most pessimistic period of funding conditions has passed,” said Zou Wang, investment director at Shanghai Anfang Private Fund Management.

Zou expects easing measures, including an RRR cut to cope with the debt issuance.

Market rates have peaked and all the “bad news” for the bond market, ranging from the government borrowing announcement to quarterly tax payments, has passed, said Su Jiangning, senior product manager at Shanghai Hesheng Assets Management Co.

Ming Ming, chief economist at Citic Securities, also expects a turn in monetary settings will lure investors back into long-term bonds.

(USD 1 = 7.3182 Chinese yuan renminbi)

(Reporting by Winni Zhou and Li Gu in Shanghai, Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Simon Cameron-Moore)

Oil falls more than USD 2 on easing Middle East fears

HOUSTON, Oct 26 – Oil prices fell more USD 2 a barrel on Thursday as fears of a wider Middle East conflict eased at the same time that US demand showed signs of weakening.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 87.93 a barrel, sliding USD 2.20 or 2.44%. On Wednesday, Brent settled nearly 2% higher. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at USD 83.21 a barrel, down USD 2.18, or 2.55%.

Oil prices have been boosted recently by fears of a spillover affecting global crude supplies from the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which could embroil Iran and its allies in the region.

Those worries were retreating by midday on Thursday.

“The security premium we’ve been paying since earlier in the month seems to be deflating,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital LLC.

The US and other countries are urging Israel to delay a full invasion of Gaza, which is reeling from almost three weeks of Israeli bombing triggered by a mass killing spree in southern Israel by Iranian-backed Hamas.

“The market is on edge,” said Price Futures analyst Phil Flynn. “It’s critical to understand that we’re one headline away from a big rally in the market.”

Worries about the broader global economy also weighed on prices. US Treasury yields headed back toward 5% on Thursday, dragging shares around the world to multi-month lows.

The US economy, however, grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the third quarter, data showed on Thursday, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer.

A rise in US crude inventories in the latest week indicated weaker demand.

Inventories climbed by 1.4 million barrels to 421.1 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), exceeding a 240,000-barrel gain expected by analysts from a Reuters poll.

The data follows a surprise downturn this month in eurozone business activity data.

“Though with no clear signs the war will spiral, attention is returning to volatile swings in the US bond market and the broader fragile state of the world economy. That is unsettling investors,” MUFG analyst Ehsan Khoman said.

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged as expected on Thursday, snapping an unprecedented streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes, and maintained its guidance which implies a steady policy ahead.

Markets will be looking to OPEC and its allies plans for production levels in the coming year, said Phil Thompson, director at Mobius Risk Group.

OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, cut production by 1.3 million per day (bpd) earlier this year and in September extended the reduced production level through the end of the year.

OPEC members are next scheduled to meet in late November.

“If cuts continue into the new year, it’s going to be bullish,” Thompson said.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston; additional reporting by Stephanie Kelly in New York, Ahmad Ghaddar in London, and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by Sharon Singleton, Barbara Lewis, Jan Harvey, Rod Nickel, and David Gregorio)

A familiar pattern – stocks slump, yields spike

Oct 26 – Asian markets on Thursday are set to open on the defensive, with sentiment battered by one of the biggest selloffs of the year in US tech stocks and a renewed spike in longer-dated US Treasury bond yields the day before.

The regional focus turns to advance third-quarter South Korean GDP figures, unemployment and industrial production data from Singapore, and Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock’s Senate testimony.

The fog of uncertainty descended further over China’s embattled property sector after it was reported on Wednesday that China’s largest private lender Country Garden has defaulted on a US dollar bond for the first time.

There’s little sign of the pressure on Japan’s bonds and currency easing either, after the yen briefly slipped below 150.00 per dollar again on Wednesday and the 10-year Japanese bond yield hit a fresh decade-high above 0.87%.

But the broader tone in Asia on Thursday will be set by another decline in US stocks and bonds.

The Nasdaq’s 2.4% slide on Wednesday was driven by a 9.5% plunge in Google-parent Alphabet’s shares after its cloud division missed revenue estimates, raising doubts over the artificial intelligence boom that is supposed to drive the global economy forward in the coming years and decades.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, appears poised to make another attempt on 5.0% after leaping 10 basis points.

Financial conditions tightened quite sharply on Wednesday.

The global market moves represented a familiar pattern since the flare-up in Middle East violence nearly three weeks ago – higher bond yields, a ‘bear steepening’ of the US yield curve, a stronger dollar, and higher oil and gold prices.

Gold has risen almost 10% since Oct. 7 and has USD 2,000/oz in its sights. Bitcoin, meanwhile, rose for a seventh consecutive session on Wednesday, during which time it has appreciated almost 25%.

The main Asian data point on Thursday will be South Korean GDP. Growth is expected to have slowed to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis from 0.6% in the April-June period, as high borrowing costs weighed on consumer spending and exports recovered at a slow pace.

Year-on-year growth is expected to have picked up to 1.1% from 0.9%.

Australia’s central bank chief Bullock’s testimony to parliament will be closely watched too, after surprisingly strong inflation figures on Wednesday appeared to increase the likelihood that interest rates could be raised again, as early as next month.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

– South Korea GDP (Q3)

– RBA governor Bullock speaks

– European Central Bank policy meeting

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

US yields climb after strong home sales data, soft five-year auction

WASHINGTON, Oct 25 – US Treasury yields on Wednesday climbed after an auction of five-year notes showed weak demand and following data indicating that new-home sales accelerated in September, affirming market expectations of prolonged high rates heading into 2024.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes was up 11.5 basis points (bps) at 4.954%. It hit a 16-year high of more than 5% on Monday.

New home sales rebounded 12.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 759,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. August sales were revised up to 676,000 units from the previously reported 675,000 units.

“Data continues to come in at a much more robust pace than most people would have thought it was going to be sitting at 5.5% through this cycle,” said Tim Sauermelch, head of global macro trading at SEI Investments.

“The fact that the economy is so resilient brings into question what rate of interest is actually restrictive,” he said.

In addition, mortgage rates approaching 8% could curb last month’s strong demand. Along with continued inflation and US economic strength, that may increase the odds the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated heading into next year to curb persistent inflation.

“The Fed has no choice but to continue to emphasize the message that interest rates are going to remain high for an extended period of time until they make enough progress on inflation,” said Hans Mikkelsen, head credit strategist at TD Securities.

A weak Treasury auction on Wednesday of USD 52 billion in US five-year notes also boosted yields. The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.899%, above the expected rate at the bid deadline, which suggested investors demanded a premium to buy the note.

Total bids were about USD 123 billion for a bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand, of 2.36, lower than the 2.52 seen previously and the 2.52 average. It is the weakest since September 2022, analysts said.

US five-year yields were last at 4.92%, up 9.4 bps.

“The Treasury markets going to stabilize, but it kind of shows you the auctions continue to be sloppy,” said John McIntyre, managing director at PGIM Fixed Income.”

“The markets struggling with new supply for now, and bonds yield moving higher and equities moving lower is not a great environmental for financial assets.”

The 30-year Treasury bond yield was up 12.9 bps at 5.091%.

The short end of the curve sold off as well, lifting the two-year yields, which typically reflect interest rate expectations, to 5.12%.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between two- and 10-year Treasury yields, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at -16.8 basis points.

An inverted yield curve historically is seen as a precursor to recession. But this curve has been steepening of late, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation that have prompted the selling of long-dated Treasuries.

Investors have grown more wary of further Fed rate hikes if inflation remains higher.

October 25 Wednesday 3:07PM New York / 1907 GMT

	Price	Current Yield %	Net Change (bps)
Three-month bills	5.32	5.4674	-0.013
Six-month bills	5.33	5.5689	0.005
Two-year note	99-198/256	5.1206	0.050
Three-year note	99-10/256	4.9765	0.063
Five-year note	98-190/256	4.9147	0.091
Seven-year note	97-248/256	4.9746	0.106
10-year note	91-184/256	4.9506	0.111
20-year bond	88-208/256	5.293	0.114
30-year bond	85-80/256	5.0871	0.124

(Reporting by Matt Tracy; Editing by Richard Chang, Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Jonathan Oatis)

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