Oil falls more than USD 2 on easing Middle East fears

HOUSTON, Oct 26 – Oil prices fell more USD 2 a barrel on Thursday as fears of a wider Middle East conflict eased at the same time that US demand showed signs of weakening.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 87.93 a barrel, sliding USD 2.20 or 2.44%. On Wednesday, Brent settled nearly 2% higher. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at USD 83.21 a barrel, down USD 2.18, or 2.55%.

Oil prices have been boosted recently by fears of a spillover affecting global crude supplies from the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which could embroil Iran and its allies in the region.

Those worries were retreating by midday on Thursday.

“The security premium we’ve been paying since earlier in the month seems to be deflating,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital LLC.

The US and other countries are urging Israel to delay a full invasion of Gaza, which is reeling from almost three weeks of Israeli bombing triggered by a mass killing spree in southern Israel by Iranian-backed Hamas.

“The market is on edge,” said Price Futures analyst Phil Flynn. “It’s critical to understand that we’re one headline away from a big rally in the market.”

Worries about the broader global economy also weighed on prices. US Treasury yields headed back toward 5% on Thursday, dragging shares around the world to multi-month lows.

The US economy, however, grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the third quarter, data showed on Thursday, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer.

A rise in US crude inventories in the latest week indicated weaker demand.

Inventories climbed by 1.4 million barrels to 421.1 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), exceeding a 240,000-barrel gain expected by analysts from a Reuters poll.

The data follows a surprise downturn this month in eurozone business activity data.

“Though with no clear signs the war will spiral, attention is returning to volatile swings in the US bond market and the broader fragile state of the world economy. That is unsettling investors,” MUFG analyst Ehsan Khoman said.

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged as expected on Thursday, snapping an unprecedented streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes, and maintained its guidance which implies a steady policy ahead.

Markets will be looking to OPEC and its allies plans for production levels in the coming year, said Phil Thompson, director at Mobius Risk Group.

OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, cut production by 1.3 million per day (bpd) earlier this year and in September extended the reduced production level through the end of the year.

OPEC members are next scheduled to meet in late November.

“If cuts continue into the new year, it’s going to be bullish,” Thompson said.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston; additional reporting by Stephanie Kelly in New York, Ahmad Ghaddar in London, and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by Sharon Singleton, Barbara Lewis, Jan Harvey, Rod Nickel, and David Gregorio)

A familiar pattern – stocks slump, yields spike

Oct 26 – Asian markets on Thursday are set to open on the defensive, with sentiment battered by one of the biggest selloffs of the year in US tech stocks and a renewed spike in longer-dated US Treasury bond yields the day before.

The regional focus turns to advance third-quarter South Korean GDP figures, unemployment and industrial production data from Singapore, and Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock’s Senate testimony.

The fog of uncertainty descended further over China’s embattled property sector after it was reported on Wednesday that China’s largest private lender Country Garden has defaulted on a US dollar bond for the first time.

There’s little sign of the pressure on Japan’s bonds and currency easing either, after the yen briefly slipped below 150.00 per dollar again on Wednesday and the 10-year Japanese bond yield hit a fresh decade-high above 0.87%.

But the broader tone in Asia on Thursday will be set by another decline in US stocks and bonds.

The Nasdaq’s 2.4% slide on Wednesday was driven by a 9.5% plunge in Google-parent Alphabet’s shares after its cloud division missed revenue estimates, raising doubts over the artificial intelligence boom that is supposed to drive the global economy forward in the coming years and decades.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, appears poised to make another attempt on 5.0% after leaping 10 basis points.

Financial conditions tightened quite sharply on Wednesday.

The global market moves represented a familiar pattern since the flare-up in Middle East violence nearly three weeks ago – higher bond yields, a ‘bear steepening’ of the US yield curve, a stronger dollar, and higher oil and gold prices.

Gold has risen almost 10% since Oct. 7 and has USD 2,000/oz in its sights. Bitcoin, meanwhile, rose for a seventh consecutive session on Wednesday, during which time it has appreciated almost 25%.

The main Asian data point on Thursday will be South Korean GDP. Growth is expected to have slowed to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis from 0.6% in the April-June period, as high borrowing costs weighed on consumer spending and exports recovered at a slow pace.

Year-on-year growth is expected to have picked up to 1.1% from 0.9%.

Australia’s central bank chief Bullock’s testimony to parliament will be closely watched too, after surprisingly strong inflation figures on Wednesday appeared to increase the likelihood that interest rates could be raised again, as early as next month.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

– South Korea GDP (Q3)

– RBA governor Bullock speaks

– European Central Bank policy meeting

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

US yields climb after strong home sales data, soft five-year auction

WASHINGTON, Oct 25 – US Treasury yields on Wednesday climbed after an auction of five-year notes showed weak demand and following data indicating that new-home sales accelerated in September, affirming market expectations of prolonged high rates heading into 2024.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes was up 11.5 basis points (bps) at 4.954%. It hit a 16-year high of more than 5% on Monday.

New home sales rebounded 12.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 759,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. August sales were revised up to 676,000 units from the previously reported 675,000 units.

“Data continues to come in at a much more robust pace than most people would have thought it was going to be sitting at 5.5% through this cycle,” said Tim Sauermelch, head of global macro trading at SEI Investments.

“The fact that the economy is so resilient brings into question what rate of interest is actually restrictive,” he said.

In addition, mortgage rates approaching 8% could curb last month’s strong demand. Along with continued inflation and US economic strength, that may increase the odds the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated heading into next year to curb persistent inflation.

“The Fed has no choice but to continue to emphasize the message that interest rates are going to remain high for an extended period of time until they make enough progress on inflation,” said Hans Mikkelsen, head credit strategist at TD Securities.

A weak Treasury auction on Wednesday of USD 52 billion in US five-year notes also boosted yields. The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.899%, above the expected rate at the bid deadline, which suggested investors demanded a premium to buy the note.

Total bids were about USD 123 billion for a bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand, of 2.36, lower than the 2.52 seen previously and the 2.52 average. It is the weakest since September 2022, analysts said.

US five-year yields were last at 4.92%, up 9.4 bps.

“The Treasury markets going to stabilize, but it kind of shows you the auctions continue to be sloppy,” said John McIntyre, managing director at PGIM Fixed Income.”

“The markets struggling with new supply for now, and bonds yield moving higher and equities moving lower is not a great environmental for financial assets.”

The 30-year Treasury bond yield was up 12.9 bps at 5.091%.

The short end of the curve sold off as well, lifting the two-year yields, which typically reflect interest rate expectations, to 5.12%.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between two- and 10-year Treasury yields, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at -16.8 basis points.

An inverted yield curve historically is seen as a precursor to recession. But this curve has been steepening of late, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation that have prompted the selling of long-dated Treasuries.

Investors have grown more wary of further Fed rate hikes if inflation remains higher.

October 25 Wednesday 3:07PM New York / 1907 GMT

	Price	Current Yield %	Net Change (bps)
Three-month bills	5.32	5.4674	-0.013
Six-month bills	5.33	5.5689	0.005
Two-year note	99-198/256	5.1206	0.050
Three-year note	99-10/256	4.9765	0.063
Five-year note	98-190/256	4.9147	0.091
Seven-year note	97-248/256	4.9746	0.106
10-year note	91-184/256	4.9506	0.111
20-year bond	88-208/256	5.293	0.114
30-year bond	85-80/256	5.0871	0.124

(Reporting by Matt Tracy; Editing by Richard Chang, Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Jonathan Oatis)

Dollar up as risk sentiment sours, Treasury yields rise

NEW YORK, Oct 25 – The US dollar rose to a near 1-week high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, as investors’ appetite for riskier currencies faded following lackluster corporate results that raised worries over the economic outlook, and as Treasury yields rose.

Risk sentiment took a hit as tech giant Alphabet (GOOGL) slumped after its cloud division missed revenue estimates, while other mega-cap stocks also edged lower, pressured by rising US Treasury yields.

The dollar index, which measures its strength against a basket of six rivals, was 0.3% higher at
106.5, its highest level in nearly a week.

“I think it is mainly a risk backdrop story,” said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. “Weak risk appetite seems to be driving broad USD gains.

Benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields inched higher, resuming a move toward a 16-year peak of 5.0% briefly breached on Monday. The 10-year yield was last at 4.9506%.

Global financial markets have been gripped by a surge in US bond yields, which helped drive the dollar index to its highest in almost a year earlier this month.

Analysts, however, see limited room for yields and the dollar to extend gains.

“My inclination is to look at these gains as an opportunity to fade some of the dollar strength against certain currencies,” Scotiabank’s Osborne said.

Data on Wednesday showed sales of new US single-family homes surged to a 19-month high in September as the annual median house price dropped by the most since 2009 amid discounts offered by builders to woo buyers, but mortgage rates flirting with 8% could curb demand.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar jumped on Wednesday after a surprisingly high reading for inflation stoked speculation about a further hike in interest rates and slugged bond futures. But it erased all those gains to trade down 0.74% on the day.

“The interesting thing about Australia is that a lot of other central banks are in a very similar position. They have paused, the market’s hoping that will be it, but everyone is on tenterhooks hoping that inflation will remain well behaved, and in the case of Australia it has not,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart after the Bank of Canada held its key overnight rate at 5.0%, as expected, and forecast weak growth while leaving the door open to more rate hikes to tame inflation that could stay above target for another two years.

The US dollar was last up 0.41% against the Canadian currency.

The dollar also kept the yen pinned near the closely watched 150 threshold, with the Japanese currency last at 149.99 per dollar, with traders alert for any signs of intervention by Japanese authorities.

Pressure is mounting on the Bank of Japan to change its bond yield control as global interest rates rise. A hike to an existing yield cap set just three months ago is being discussed as a possibility in the run-up to next week’s policy meeting, Reuters cited sources as saying this week.

“There is a decent chance there will be another tweak to yield curve control,” said Foley. “If we don’t see that, it is quite possible that we will see the other side of 150 quite soon.”

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin was last up 1.83% at USD 34,539, holding near a roughly 18-month high hit on Tuesday.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency is up about 15% for the week, fuelled by speculation that an exchange-traded bitcoin fund is imminent.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore and Alun John in London; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore, Mark Potter, Mike Harrison, and Diane Craft)

Safe-haven gold gains on MidEast conflict, US data in focus

Oct 25 – Safe-haven gold gained on Wednesday, buoyed by continued conflict in the Middle East, while investors looked forward to key US economic data for further cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Spot gold was up 0.7% at USD 1,983.39 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. ET (1740 GMT), having declined in the previous two sessions and trading below a five-month high hit last week. US gold futures settled 0.4% higher at USD 1,994.9.

The geopolitical concerns are not going away in the short term, which will continue supporting gold, said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Israel’s military intensified its bombing of southern Gaza overnight, amid international calls for a pause in fighting.

Limiting bullion’s gains, the dollar index and benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields rose.

Investor attention turns to US third-quarter GDP figures due on Thursday and the US PCE price index on Friday which could impact the Federal Reserve’s outlook on interest rates.

Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Markets are widely expecting the Fed to keep rates on hold at its policy meeting next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

If the data shows a slowdown, it will give the Fed more reason not to raise interest rates, which should be very supportive for gold and see prices back above USD 2,000, added Haberkorn.

US business activity ticked higher in October while output in the eurozone took a surprise turn for the worse, surveys showed on Tuesday, underscoring the diverging path for central bankers in the two regions.

On the physical front, China’s gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2023 climbed 7.32% from a year earlier on increasing demand amid economic recovery, the China Gold Association said.

Spot silver fell 0.2% to USD 22.90 per ounce, platinum gained 2.4% to USD 905.41 and palladium was down 0.2% to USD 1,117.03.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and additional reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Mark Potter and Shailesh Kuber)

Oil prices settle up about 2% on worries about Middle East

NEW YORK, Oct 25 – Oil prices rose about 2% on Wednesday, buoyed by worries about conflict in the Middle East, but gains were capped by higher US crude inventories and gloomy economic prospects in Europe.

Brent crude futures rose USD 2.06, or 2.34%, to settle at USD 90.13 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose USD 1.65, or 1.97%, to close at USD 85.39 a barrel.

Prices fell early in the session but reversed declines on heightened geopolitical risk, said Price Futures analyst Phil Flynn.

Israel stepped up bombings of south Gaza, officials said, and violence flared elsewhere in the Middle East. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised statement that Israel is preparing a ground invasion of Gaza.

US, crude inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels in the latest week to 421.1 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported, exceeding the 240,000-barrel gain expected by analysts in a Reuters poll.

The EIA data “is more bearish because it’s a big switch from a big draw in the API data to a build in the EIA data,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed a larger-than-expected draw in crude stocks.

Adding to weak European economic data in recent weeks, European Central Bank data showed bank lending across the eurozone came to a near standstill last month, further evidence that the 20-nation bloc may be close to a recession.

Crude demand could get a boost in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, which approved a bill to issue 1 trillion yuan (USD 137 billion) in sovereign bonds and allow local governments to issue new debt from their 2024 quota to boost the economy. Yet Beijing also took steps that could limit crude demand, such as putting a ceiling for its oil refining capacity at 1 billion metric tons by 2025 to streamline its vast oil processing sector and curb carbon emissions.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York; Additional reporting by Natalie Grover, Stephanie Kelly, Laura Sanicola, and Muyu Yu; Editing by Mark Potter, Mike Harrison, and David Gregorio)

Philippines seeks gasoline price cut with higher ethanol blend

MANILA, Oct 24 – The Philippine government aims to lower domestic pump prices for gasoline by calling for a higher ethanol blend of 20% on a voluntary basis, from the current mandatory 10%, Energy Secretary Raphael Lotilla said on Tuesday.

In a press briefing, Lotilla said increasing the ethanol blend will result in a more than one peso per litre reduction in the price of gasoline.

The government has discussed the measure with local oil companies and is aiming to get approval from the Bioefuels Board by end-2023, said Lotilla, who also chairs the regulatory body.

“This is primarily a price-mitigation measure because (imported) ethanol is especially important as it is cheaper than the price of gasoline,” he said.

It was among several measures discussed during a meeting with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., which also include shortening the “trigger period” for providing subsidies to the public transport sector, and simplifying the requirements, the minister added.

Under the annual budget programme, the government only provides subsidies when the benchmark Dubai oil price stays above USD 80 per barrel for three months.

The government now wants to release the subsidies based on a shorter trigger period of one month, Lotilla said.

The Southeast Asian country is battling inflation, which in September accelerated to 6.1% on an annual basis, the fastest pace in four months and still well above the central bank’s target range of 2% to 4%.

(Reporting by Enrico Dela Cruz; Editing by Kanupriya Kapoor and Stephen Coates)

Gold gains on softer US bond yields, Mideast uncertainty

Oct 24 – Gold prices rebounded on Tuesday as benchmark U.S. Treasury yields pulled back, while investors awaited economic data for guidance on interest rates and monitored growing tensions in the Middle East.

Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,976.09 per ounce by 0529 GMT, while US gold futures were steady at USD 1,987.10.

Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield declined, after briefly rising above 5% on Monday and further threatening an economic slowdown on higher borrowing costs.

“The importance of geopolitics and gold is really highlighted very clearly by how strong gold has been despite stronger bond yields,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Once markets digest geopolitics, yields would become more of a meaningful factor, he added.

Gold is seen as a safe investment during times of crisis and has surged about 9% in the past two weeks on war worries, hitting five-month highs on Oct. 20.

Investors are keeping watch on the Middle East war as Israel’s military issued a statement suggesting that Israel had no intention of curbing its strikes on Gaza Strip and hinting it was well prepared for a ground assault.

Markets also await global flash PMIs due later in the day, US third-quarter GDP figures on Thursday and the US PCE price index on Friday to evaluate how it would affect the Federal Reserve’s monetary path.

For the data to have any kind of meaningful influence, it would have to be either a much better or a much worse outcome than expected, Spivak said.

Spot gold may retest a support of USD 1,963 per ounce, a break below which open the way towards USD 1,942-USD 1,951 range, according to according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. TECH/C

Spot silver was up 0.5% to USD 23.09 an ounce, platinum fell 0.2% to USD 894.96 and palladium firmed 1.1% to 1,129.90.

(Reporting by Swati Verma and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Varun H K)

Treasuries relief, China grief

Oct 24 – Investors hoping for a reprieve from the US bond-selling frenzy got their wish on Monday, which should bode well for Asian markets on Tuesday, although the doubts about how long the calm lasts are bound to swirl.

The regional economic calendar on Tuesday is light, the highlights being South Korean producer price inflation for September, October’s flash purchasing managers index data from Japan and Australia, and a speech from Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock.

All of these could trigger short-term moves in the respective currencies, which all gained ground to varying degrees against the beaten-down dollar on Monday.

September’s PMIs showed that manufacturing activity in Japan and Australia shrank and services sector activity grew, although growth in Japan was the slowest this year.

The big picture, however, is still dominated by the ebb and flow of the US Treasuries market. The 10-year yield finally broke above 5.0% on Monday but quickly tumbled, and the peak-to-trough slide of 20 basis points pushed US stocks into positive territory for most of the day and dragged down the dollar.

All of that paves the way for a ‘risk-on’ day across Asia on Tuesday, right? Not necessarily.

Wall Street gave back most of its gains in late trading, with only the Nasdaq out of the three main indexes closing in the green – an intuitive move, perhaps, given the tech sector’s sensitivity to interest rates.

And while a broad easing of financial conditions on Monday – lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar – should support emerging market assets, Wall Street’s late downward drift will warrant caution.

So will the latest signals from China, which continues to post substantial capital outflows.

According to Goldman Sachs, outflows in September jumped to USD 75 billion, the biggest monthly figure since 2016, up from a still hefty $42 billion in August.

“The unfavorable interest rate spread between China and the US will likely imply persistent depreciation and outflow pressures in coming months,” Goldman analysts warned.

Blue chip Chinese stocks on Monday hit their lowest level since February, 2019, and given China’s weight in Asian and emerging market equity indexes, Tuesday could be a challenge.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan and MSCI global emerging market indexes are both down around 13% over the past three months and on Monday both hit their lowest level since Nov. 11 last year.

Japan’s yen and bonds will be under the spotlight again on Tuesday after the yen briefly slipped below 150.00 per dollar and the 10-year yield hit a fresh decade-high on speculation the Bank of Japan could tweak its yield curve control policy later this month.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

– Japan flash manufacturing PMI (October)

– Australia flash PMI (October)

– South Korea producer price inflation (September)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

Wall Street ends mixed as Treasury yields ease, focus turns to earnings

NEW YORK, Oct 23 – US stocks wavered to a mixed close on Monday as benchmark US Treasury yields backed down from 5% and investors shifted their focus to this week’s high-profile earnings and closely watched economic data.

The S&P 500 index ended modestly lower, while a host of interest rate-sensitive momentum stocks buoyed the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index to a higher close.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched its fourth straight daily drop.

“The story continues to be about interest rates, and to some extent switching from ‘higher for longer’ to ‘how much higher for how much longer?'” said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors in New York. “The market has accepted the idea that the Fed is not going to lower rates any time soon.”

The tech-heavy Nasdaq racked up the largest gains among Wall Street’s major indexes, while the blue-chip Dow was nominally lower.

The S&P 500 ended below its 200-day moving average, a closely watched technical level, for the second straight session.

The week ahead promises to be eventful for earnings, with reports by nearly one-third of the companies in the S&P 500.

These include megacap momentum drivers, including Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Alphabet Inc (GOOGL), Meta Platforms Inc (META), and Amazon.com (AMZN), along with heavy-hitting industrials such as General Motors Co (GM), Ford Motor Co (F) and Boeing Co (BA).

“With nearly a third of the S&P reporting this week, investors are hoping these ‘magnificent seven’ companies will end up surprising to the upside,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York.

So far, 86 of the companies in the S&P 500 have posted earnings. Of those, 78% have beaten expectations, LSEG data showed.

Analysts see aggregate S&P 500 earnings for the July-September period growing 1.2% year-on-year, slightly below the 1.6% growth projected at the start of the month, according to LSEG.

The Commerce Department on Thursday will announce third-quarter gross domestic product, seen accelerating to 4.3%. Its wide-ranging Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, due on Friday, is expected to show annual headline and core inflation cooling down to 3.4% and 3.7%, respectively.

“The Fed wants to slow inflation at a quicker pace than it slows economic growth, and it’s doing so,” Pursche added. “That’s the classic definition of a soft landing.”

Geopolitical turmoil is also on the radar, with market participants looking for potential signs the Israel-Hamas conflict could broaden or escalate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 190.87 points, or 0.58%, to 32,936.41; the S&P 500 lost 7.12 points, or 0.17%, at 4,217.04; and the Nasdaq Composite added 34.52 points, or 0.27%, at 13,018.33.

Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, communication services notched the biggest gain, while energy shares suffered the largest percentage drop.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) surged 3.3% after J.P. Morgan upgraded the pharmacy chain operator to “overweight” from “neutral.”

Chevron (CVX) fell 3.7% after the company said it would buy smaller rival Hess Corp (HES) in a USD 53 billion all-stock deal. Hess dipped 1.1%.

Agricultural sciences firm FMC (FMC) tumbled 13.2% after the company lowered its third-quarter guidance.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 2.10-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.04-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 58 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 14 new highs and 514 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 10.80 billion shares, compared with the 10.67 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Stephen Culp; Additional reporting by Shubham Batra and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Chang)

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