Oil prices fall more than USD 2/bbl as OPEC says 2026 supply to match demand

HOUSTON – Oil prices fell more than USD 2 a barrel on Wednesday, weighed down by an OPEC report saying global oil supply will match demand in 2026, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 62.71 a barrel, down USD 2.45, or 3.76% after gaining 1.7% on Tuesday. US West Texas Intermediate crude finished at USD 58.49 a barrel, down USD 2.55, or 4.18%, after climbing 1.5% in the previous session.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries noted that world oil supply would match demand next year due to the wider OPEC+ group’s production increases. Previously, it had projected a supply deficit in 2026.

“The prospect that the market is in balance is definitely what drove down prices,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. “The market wants to believe it’s balanced. I think the market took OPEC more seriously than IEA.”

The International Energy Agency forecast in its annual World Energy Outlook that oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050. That was a departure from the IEA’s previous expectation that global oil demand would peak this decade, as the international body moved away from a forecasting method based on climate pledges.

John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, said the OPEC outlook comes as some crude sellers cannot find buyers.

“There are cargoes going begging,” Kilduff said. “The very front of the market is forming a new price curve. There’s just a general sense of weakness in the US economy.”

Analysts have previously highlighted that crude oversupply is curbing price gains. OPEC+ agreed this month to a pause in increasing its output in the first quarter of next year, after having unwound its cuts to production since August this year.

US GOVERNMENT REOPENING

The reopening of the US government could boost consumer confidence and economic activity, spurring demand for crude oil, IG analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note.

The US Republican-controlled House of Representatives is set to vote later on Wednesday on a bill, already signed off by the Senate, that would restore funding to government agencies through January 30.

The US Energy Information Administration will release its outlook on Thursday.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Seher Dareen and Enes Tunagur in London, Colleen Howe in Beijing; Editing by Jane Merriman, Hugh Lawson, Rod Nickel, and David Gregorio)

Dollar eases as traders eye December Fed cut on weakening US jobs market

SINGAPORE – The dollar eased on Wednesday after private-sector US jobs data stoked worries about the health of the labor market, with investors also bracing for an imminent US government reopening that is expected to unleash a backlog of economic releases.

Overnight, payroll processor ADP said that US firms were shedding more than 11,000 jobs a week through late October, underscoring how hiring trends are evolving on a week-to-week basis and pointing to further weakening in a labor market being closely monitored by Federal Reserve policymakers.

The dollar fell in the aftermath of the data release and struggled to recover its losses in early Asia trade on Wednesday, as traders once again ramped up bets of a Fed cut in December.

The euro was steady at USD 1.1586 and sterling GBP= distanced itself further from a seven-month trough to last trade USD 1.3149.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar languished near its lowest in more than a week and was last at 99.46.

“The alternative data, I think, overall points to a softer labor market picture… but whether we’re seeing a worsening deterioration in the US labor market, I think that remains an open question,” said Sim Moh Siong, a currency strategist at Bank of Singapore.

“I think the broad set of data suggests that the labor market is cooling, but only gradually so, and I think we should see some confirmation of that from the return of official data likely by next week, with the reopening of the US government.”

Traders are now pricing in close to a 68% chance that the Fed would ease rates by 25 basis points next month, up from around 62% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield was down 3 bps at 4.0791% early in Asia, after trading was closed in the US on Tuesday owing to the Veterans Day holiday. The two-year yield also fell roughly 3 bps to 3.5596%.

“We remain of the view that the balance of risks to the labour market, inflation and consumption favour a 25-bp rate cut next month,” said Brian Martin, ANZ’s head of G3 economics, in a note.

Fed policymakers have in recent times struck a more measured tone on further easing, citing the absence of key economic data due to the US government shutdown as one reason for caution.

But a reopening could be imminent, as members of the House of Representatives headed back to Washington on Tuesday for a vote that could bring the longest shutdown in history to a close.

The Republican-controlled House is due to vote on Wednesday afternoon on a compromise that would restore funding to government agencies and end a shutdown that started on October 1.

The breakthrough has also lifted risk currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which were last up 0.02% each at USD 0.6529 and USD 0.5656, respectively.

The safe-haven yen has meanwhile been bruised from the overall risk-on market sentiment, last standing at 154.08 per dollar after sliding to a nine-month low of 154.495 in the previous session.

It has fallen nearly 0.5% for the week so far.

The yen also faced further headwinds from expectations of greater fiscal largesse in Japan, after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she would work on setting a new fiscal target extending through several years to allow more flexible spending, essentially watering down the country’s commitment to fiscal consolidation.

She renewed calls for the Bank of Japan to go slow on interest rate hikes, in sharp contrast to the hawkish tilt from Fed policymakers.

(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Asian markets make tepid gains as US shutdown set to end

SINGAPORE – Stocks tiptoed forward at the start of Asian trading on Wednesday as the US Congress looked set to end the federal shutdown and traders looked for direction in the absence of clues from government data services.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.1% in early trading as members of the House of Representatives prepared to vote on a measure that could restore funding to government agencies and end a shutdown that started on October 1 and is now the longest in US history.

Australian stocks led gains, advancing 0.2% as lithium miners drove commodity stocks higher, while Japan’s Topix jumped 0.6%.

“Sentiment improved after the US Senate passed a bill to end the longest US government shutdown on record,” analysts from Westpac wrote in a research report. “The House is expected to approve the bill in the coming days.”

S&P 500 e-mini futures ESc1 were trading flat after a mixed session for US stocks on Tuesday that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise 1.2% to reach a record close, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.3%.

In the absence of data from federal government agencies, traders focused on weekly jobs data from ADP on Tuesday, which showed private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week in the four weeks ending on October 25.

Traders are increasing bets on further easing from the Federal Reserve. Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 68% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the US central bank’s next meeting on December 10, compared to a 62% chance a day earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was last down 0.2% at 99.451, trading near the lowest levels this month.

The US dollar was little changed against the yen at 154.13 and the euro at USD 1.1583.

Brent crude rose 1.6% to USD 65.09 per barrel, the highest since October 31, on the impact of the latest US sanctions on Russian oil and optimism over a potential end to the government shutdown, although oversupply concerns limited gains.

Gold was trading 0.4% higher at USD 4,141.35 per ounce.

Bitcoin was last up 0.4% at USD 103,074.41.

(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Gold gains for fourth day on softer dollar, Fed rate-cut optimism

Gold rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations that the reopening of the US government and flow of economic data will strengthen bets for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was up 0.4% at USD 4,142.70 per ounce by 0012 GMT, after hitting its highest since October 23 on Tuesday.

* US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.8% to USD 4,149.20 per ounce.

* The US Senate passed a deal on Monday to restore federal funding after a record-long shutdown that has disrupted food benefits for millions, left hundreds of thousands of federal workers unpaid, snarled air traffic, and delayed the release of government economic data.

* The deal still needs approval in the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson has said he wants a vote as soon as Wednesday. It will then go to US President Donald Trump to be signed into law.

* Traders are pricing in a roughly 68% probability that the US central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points next month, up from 64% in the previous session, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

* Non-yielding gold tends to do well in a low-interest-rate environment and during economic uncertainties.

* The dollar index, meanwhile, fell for a fifth straight session, making gold more attractive for other currency holders.

* Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday a 50-bps rate cut would be appropriate for December, noting that inflation is falling while the unemployment rate is drifting higher.

* SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.41% to 1,046.36 metric tons on Tuesday from 1,042.06 tons on Monday.

* Elsewhere, spot silver firmed 0.1% to USD 51.29 per ounce, platinum eased 0.1% to USD 1,583.10, and palladium was steady at USD 1,443.56.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
0700	Germany HICP Final YY Oct

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

Dow notches record high close, traders bet on end to government shutdown

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to a record high close on Tuesday, lifted by progress toward ending the longest US government shutdown, while Nvidia and other artificial intelligence-related companies fell on renewed concerns about elevated valuations.

Fueling gains in the Dow and S&P 500 index, members of the US House of Representatives headed back to Washington after a 53-day break for a vote that could end the shutdown, with the Polymarket betting platform fully pricing in a resolution this week.

“Expectations are that the shutdown is over. … People will get back to work, economic data will be released once again, and uncertainty will be behind us,” said CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall.

Adding to jitters about AI-related stocks that have fueled the market’s rally in recent years, Japanese technology investor SoftBank Group 9984.T disclosed its sale of Nvidia shares for USD 5.8 billion, and the chipmaker lost almost 3% in Tuesday’s trading.

Nvidia-backed CoreWeave’s shares slumped over 16% after the cloud computing firm trimmed its annual revenue forecast due to data center hiccups.

Sentiment was dampened by a weekly update of ADP’s preliminary payroll figures showing that private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week for the four weeks ended October 25.

US President Donald Trump warned of an economic and national security disaster if the Supreme Court ruled against his use of an emergency powers law to impose sweeping tariffs.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.21% to end at 6,846.61 points.

The Nasdaq declined 0.25% to 23,468.30 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.18% to 47,927.96 points.

The Dow has gained almost 13% in 2025, lagging the S&P 500’s 16% rise and the Nasdaq’s nearly 22% increase.

Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose, led by health care, up 2.33% and lifted by gains of more than 2% each in Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, and AbbVie.

Occidental Petroleum edged up 0.1% after the shale producer beat third-quarter profit expectations.

Paramount Skydance surged almost 10% after the newly merged media firm announced more cost cuts and plans to invest USD 1.5 billion in its streaming and studio divisions.

Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones within the S&P 500 by a 2.2-to-one ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 30 new highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 104 new highs and 128 new lows.

US bond markets were closed for the Veterans Day holiday. Volume on US exchanges was light, with 15.3 billion shares traded, compared with an average of 20.8 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

(Reporting by Twesha Dikshit and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru, and by Noel Randewich in San Francisco; Editing by Maju Samuel and Richard Chang)

Safe haven yen under pressure as traders eye end to US shutdown

SINGAPORE – The safe-haven yen was pinned near its weakest levels for months on Tuesday while riskier currencies were firm against the dollar, as traders waited to see whether US lawmakers could secure an end to the government shutdown in coming days.

The euro was steady at USD 1.1558 and sterling has been creeping higher to USD 1.3177.

A deal that would restore US federal funding, and end the longest shutdown on record, cleared an initial Senate hurdle late on Sunday, though it was unclear when Congress would give its final approval.

A gain of about 0.7% for the Australian dollar to USD 0.6536 and a drop in the yen to 154.11 per dollar were the biggest movers in the wake of the breakthrough. A break of 154.48 would take the yen to its weakest in nine months.

Analysts said their moves could be vulnerable to reversal if the path to inking the shutdown deal dragged much beyond this week. There are still several Senate hurdles to clear.

House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson said his chamber could pass the bill as soon as Wednesday and send it on to President Donald Trump to sign into law, if the Senate acts quickly.

“Reopening by November 15 is just about fully priced in for now, so any deviation or delays from that could be viewed as risky for this rebound in liquidity,” said Brent Donnelly, president at analytics firm Spectra Markets.

New Zealand inflation expectations, British weekly wage data and Germany’s ZEW sentiment survey are due later in the session.

The New Zealand dollar has been under pressure for months as the economy slows and had on Tuesday hit a 12-year low against the Australian dollar, reflecting a divergent outlook for interest rates in the Antipodes.

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Stock market hits speed bump but investors stay on bullish path

NEW YORK – The stock market’s recent weakness marked a speed bump in a rally that had driven stocks to a series of record highs, but many investors view the pullback as a breather rather than a sign of deeper trouble.

The S&P 500 has fallen 2.4% over the last eight sessions as investors fretted over the state of the US economy and elevated valuations of artificial intelligence and technology stocks — sectors that have powered the market this year.

“It’s a speed bump. It’s not a wall that you’re going to ram the car into and have a bit more damage than anyone is planning for,” said Raheel Siddiqui, senior investment strategist at Neuberger Berman Global Equity Research Department.

“Whether it’s something more than a simple correction, a recession or a bear market or something more sinister? I don’t believe we have the preconditions for that,” he said.

Despite jitters over valuations and market concentration, the bull market has strong underpinnings that encourage risk-taking: the Federal Reserve’s easing of financial conditions, the AI-driven boom in capital expenditures, and a supportive economic backdrop, investors said.

“I don’t really see a significant change in positioning; I don’t see a significant change in sentiment,” said Chris Dyer, co-head of Eaton Vance Equity and portfolio manager for global equity portfolios in London.

“That’s not to say that that couldn’t happen. I just don’t think that we’re seeing it at this point.”

THE OLD NORMAL

Part of the reason the stock market pullback has drawn attention is that market drops have been rare since the tariff-induced selloff in April subsided, investors said. The S&P 500 has not fallen more than 3% from its most recent high since April.

The selloff was “just a reminder that volatility exists and is normal,” said Mike Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede Wealth Management.

The volatility does not stem from a fundamental shift in the outlook for stocks, investors said.

“What we are starting to see now is some fear of heights and profit taking,” said Tobias Hekster, co-chief investment officer at True Partner Capital. “I don’t think we are seeing any meaningful unwinding yet.”

The bigger risk is overreacting to the market weakness, said David Wagner, head of equities and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors. “I legitimately think one of the biggest risks that an investor could do right now is to take money off the table.”

While near-term worries may have buffeted stocks in recent sessions, the longer-term outlook remains positive, said Phil Orlando, chief market strategist at Federated Hermes.

“Could there be a little chop, a little increased volatility over the course of the next couple of quarters? Absolutely, but we would view that as a buying opportunity.”

The US economy argues against a market crash, investors said, with faster second-quarter growth than previously estimated amid strong consumer spending. Surging business investment is expected to offset weaker growth in consumption and global trade and keep the economy growing, a National Association for Business Economics survey showed.

“When you look at the fundamentals in the economy around the world, the US, emerging markets are experiencing strong growth and while there is some weakness that is at a healthy level,” said Victor Zhang, chief investment officer for American Century Investments, which manages around USD 300 billion.

However, with the S&P 500 up 14% for the year and the Nasdaq up 19%, analysts broadly agreed that the selloff risks picking up steam and news on the economy could turn negative.

With fresh official data on the economy missing due to the US government shutdown, investors have to figure out the appropriate weight to put on each new unofficial report, raising the risk of overreaction.

“Bull markets don’t die of old age; they die of fright,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, who sees potential for further market weakness. “What they are most afraid of right now is a recession.”

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Laura Matthews; Additional reporting by Suzanne McGee, Anirban Sen, and Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Megan Davies and Richard Chang)

Funds cut consumer stocks to global pandemic lows, Goldman data shows

LONDON – Hedge funds’ economic optimism faded last week, and their exposure to companies that depend on consumer spending power, such as hotels and restaurants, fell to five-year lows, according to a Goldman Sachs note seen by Reuters on Monday.

Companies selling products that consumers like to have but don’t necessarily need accounted for the most net-sold stock sector globally and in the US last week, Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients dated Nov. 7.

Hedge funds ditched long positions that expected the stocks of these companies to rise and added short wagers, betting these equity values would fall, said the bank.

Hedge funds are private investment funds that most often keep their trading positions a secret because of regulatory reasons and also to protect their trades.

Hotels, restaurants and leisure company stocks were the most sold in the consumer discretionary sector, which is often seen as an economic bellwether.

Exposure to these stocks now sits at the lowest level since the 2020 COVID pandemic, the Goldman Sachs data showed.

Instead, speculators piled into US health care stocks, which were bought for an eighth consecutive week and at the fastest pace in nine months, driven by an increase in long positions.

Hedge fund health care enthusiasm last week saw some hedge funds investing in other hedge funds that specialize in the sector.

Global shares rose on Monday, boosted by hopes that an end to the historic US government shutdown was in sight.

Financial assets more commonly used as a shield for economic uncertainty, like gold, have risen following weak US economic data last week.

Private reports suggested the US economy shed jobs in October with losses in the government and retail sectors, while businesses cutting costs and adopting artificial intelligence contributed to a surge in announced layoffs.

Additionally, US consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years in early November, hurt by worries over the economic fallout from the longest-ever government shutdown, a survey showed on Friday.

(Reporting by Nell Mackenzie; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Hugh Lawson)

Asian markets pull back as stretched valuation fears jolt Wall St

SINGAPORE — Asian stocks extended an overnight selloff on Wall Street in early trading on Wednesday as investor concerns about stretched valuations sapped confidence.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.8%, led by declines in South Korean shares with a loss of 4.1%. US e-mini futures moved 0.4% lower after a 1.2% drop for the S&P 500 overnight.

“It’s a sea of red across broad markets,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne. “There aren’t many reasons to buy here, and until we move closer to Nvidia’s earnings on 19 November, the market lacks a short-term catalyst.”

Stocks are retreating from record highs on fears equity markets may have become overstretched after the CEOs of Wall Street heavyweights Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs questioned whether sky-high valuations can be sustained.

Last month, banking giant JPMorgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon had warned of a heightened risk of a significant correction in the US stock market within the next six months to two years.

The warnings come as a surge in enthusiasm for generative AI has swept across stock markets worldwide this year, drawing comparisons to the dot-com bubble.

Japan’s Nikkei stock index slid 2.5%, with SoftBank Group shares plunging 10%.

The US dollar dropped 0.2% against the yen to 153.41after the release of minutes from the Bank of Japan’s September policy meeting,

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, briefly touched a five-month high of 100.25.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes edged lower to 4.0697% compared with its US close of 4.091% on Tuesday.

Bitcoin fell below USD 100,000 for the first time since June, but rebounded afterwards and was last up 0.2% at USD 100,499.70. Gold attempted to recover after three consecutive days of losses, and was trading 0.1% higher at USD 3,936.48 per ounce.

The European single currency was little changed in early trading at USD 1.1484 after hitting a three-month low following five straight days of declines.

Brent crude was last unchanged at USD 64.44 per barrel.

(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter
Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Oil settles lower on stronger dollar, fears of oversupply

HOUSTON— Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday as weaker manufacturing numbers and a stronger dollar weighed on demand, while the OPEC+ decision to pause output hikes in the first quarter of next year could signal the group’s concern about a potential supply glut.

Brent crude futures closed 45 cents, or 0.7% lower at USD 64.44 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 49 cents, or 0.8%, at USD 60.56.

“Crude futures are feeling the pressure today from high US dollar valuation. The US stock market is also seeing a heavy downside correction in the early trade as the government shutdown may be beginning to add downside pressure, which could eventually hurt domestic fuel demand,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

The dollar climbed to a four-month high against the euro on Tuesday as divisions in the Federal Reserve raised doubt about the prospect of another rate cut this year. A stronger US currency makes dollar-priced assets such as oil more expensive to those holding other currencies.

Wall Street fell sharply following warnings of a market selloff from some big US banks.

The US government shutdown entered its 35th day, matching a record set during President Donald Trump’s first term for the longest in history.

The toll is mounting. Food assistance for the poor was halted for the first time, federal workers from airports to law enforcement and the military are going unpaid and the economy is flying blind with limited government reporting.

In Asia, Japan’s manufacturing activity shrank in October at the fastest pace in 19 months, a private-sector survey showed.

French oil major TotalEnergies expects global oil demand to rise until 2040 before declining gradually as energy security concerns and a lack of political coordination slow efforts to cut emissions, it said in its annual energy outlook report.

On Sunday, OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, agreed to a small oil output increase for December and a pause in increases in the first quarter of 2026.

On Tuesday, a Reuters survey found that OPEC’s oil output rose further in October after an OPEC+ agreement to raise production. The scale of the increase slowed sharply from September and the summer months.

The boost to oil prices from the US sanctions on Russian energy companies Lukoil and Rosneft was fading, chief analyst of commodities Bjarne Schieldrop at SEB Research said in a note.

“Come Nov 21 when the sanctions (on other companies that continue to trade with the Russian companies) go into force they will likely evaporate, disappear or be pushed out in time.”

Market participants are now awaiting the latest US inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), due later in the day. A preliminary Reuters poll showed US crude oil stockpiles were expected to have risen last week.

(By Arathy Somasekhar, Reporting by Seher Dareen in London, Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Ros Russell, Louise Heavens, Tomasz Janowski and David Gregorio)

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