Oil rises, Brent tops USD80 ahead of OPEC+ meeting

LONDON, Nov 28 – Oil prices rose on Tuesday with the Brent benchmark rising above USD 80 a barrel, supported by expectations that the OPEC+ producer group may deepen and extend output cuts due to concern over softer global demand.

OPEC+, which combines the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, will hold an online ministerial meeting on Thursday to discuss production targets for 2024.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up 72 cents, or 0.9%, at USD 80.70 a barrel at 0921 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 gained 69 cents, or 0.9%, at USD 75.55.

“Barring any negative surprise, the recent drop in prices will probably be viewed as a buying opportunity, especially if further cuts are agreed,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, referring to the OPEC+ meeting.

Last week, the market tumbled when OPEC+ – the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia – postponed to Nov. 30 a ministerial meeting to iron out differences on production targets for African producers.

The group has since moved towards a compromise, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Friday, potentially helping the group’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia find consensus on the need to deepen output cuts.

“Saudi Arabia may be comforted that U.S. gasoline prices have fallen for 60 straight days. This may soften the U.S. opposition to any move to tighten oil markets and support prices,” ANZ Research said in a note on Tuesday.

Oil also found support from a weak dollar – which makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies and tends to reflect greater risk appetite among investors – and from expectations U.S. crude inventories declined last week.

Four analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that the latest round of weekly U.S. supply reports will show crude inventories fell by about 2 million barrels.

The first of this week’s two reports is out at 2130 GMT from the American Petroleum Institute industry group.

(Additional reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Oil settles up 2%; focus on OPEC+, storm-hit Kazakh output

NEW YORK, Nov 28 – Oil prices jumped on Tuesday, settling up about 2% on the possibility OPEC+ will extend or deepen supply cuts, a storm-related drop in Kazakh oil output, and a weaker US dollar.

Brent crude futures settled up USD 1.70, or 2.1%, at USD 81.68 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained USD 1.55, or 2.1%, to settle at USD 76.41.

OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and allies including Russia, are due to hold an online ministerial meeting on Thursday to discuss 2024 production targets.

The talks will be difficult and a rollover of the previous agreement is possible rather than deeper production cuts, four OPEC+ sources said.

The market tumbled last week when OPEC+ pushed back the original date for its meeting to iron out differences in production targets for African producers.

“We believe the market’s primary focus surrounds the continuation of Saudi Arabia’s additional voluntary cuts of 1 million barrels per day,” Walt Chancellor, an energy strategist at Macquarie, said in a note. “We believe an extension of these cuts into Q2/Q3 2024 may represent the threshold for this meeting being viewed bullishly.”

One possible compromise could involve Angola and Nigeria accepting reduced production targets for a few months if targets for the other countries were likewise lowered, said Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch.

“According to delegates, Saudi Arabia is demanding lower production quotas from the other OPEC+ countries. While Kuwait has signaled that it would be willing to do so, some countries are apparently resisting any such move.”

The United Arab Emirates is likely to oppose this, given that its 2024 production target was increased at its urging when OPEC+ held its previous meeting in early June, he added.

Oil also found support from a weak dollar, an expected decline in US crude inventories, and the drop in Kazakh output.

Kazakhstan’s largest oilfields have cut their combined daily oil output by 56%.

US crude oil inventories dropped by 817,000 barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures.

Weekly US government data on stockpiles is due on Wednesday.

The US dollar sank to a three-month low on Tuesday after US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller flagged the possibility of lowering the Fed policy rate in the months ahead if inflation declines further.

A weaker dollar typically bolsters oil demand, making dollar-denominated oil less expensive for buyers using other currencies.

In the Middle East, Israeli forces and Hamas fighters held their fire beyond the original deadline of a truce, extended at the last minute by at least two days to let more hostages go free.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly; additional reporting by Alex Lawler, Natalie Grover, and Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Kim Coghill, David Goodman, David Gregorio, and Marguerita Choy)

Beijing bourse tells ‘major shareholders’ to refrain from selling, sources say

SHANGHAI/BEIJING Nov 27 – The Beijing Stock Exchange has de facto implemented a new policy that prevents major shareholders of companies listed on the bourse from selling stock, worried that such sales could douse a long-desired rally, three people familiar with the matter said on Monday.

The bourse said in a statement to Reuters on Tuesday that talk of such a policy was “not factual”, and there was “no change to the spirit of relevant published guidelines”.

A “major shareholder” is one with a stake of 5% or more and is required to make a public filing with the relevant stock exchange before selling shares, according to rules for China’s bourses.

The Beijing exchange has been rejecting those filings, said the people who were not authorized to speak to the media and declined to be identified.

It was not immediately clear how long this new policy would remain in place, they added.

The Beijing Stock Exchange, launched two years ago, was set up to help facilitate funding for innovative small companies, dubbed “little giants”, but had languished due to a lack of investor interest.

But its benchmark 50 Index has surged 46% this month on the back of recent measures by authorities. These include lowering the required amount of funds an investor must have in their stock account to invest, improving trading mechanisms, and encouraging mutual funds to participate in the market.

The bourse had said separately in a statement on Monday morning ahead of this Reuters article that it was closely monitoring trading to ensure normal market order.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission did not reply to a request for comment.

The so-called window guidance – where directives are made orally without written documents – is aimed at protecting the rally, the sources said.

One noted that without the guidance, the share price surge “could prompt institutional shareholders to reduce their holdings which could knock the index down again.”

The Beijing bourse currently houses 232 companies with a combined market capitalization of 366 billion yuan (USD 50 billion).

By comparison, the Shanghai bourse is home to 2,256 firms worth 47 trillion yuan in total, while almost 3,000 companies listed in Shenzhen have a total market capitalization of 31.9 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index is up 0.4% this month, while the Shenzhen Composite Index is down 0.8%.

(Reporting by Beijing and Shanghai newsrooms; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

Gold climbs higher on dollar dip, Fed pause bets

Nov 27 – Gold hit a six-month high on Monday as a softer dollar and expectations of a pause in the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening helped bullion consolidate above the key USD 2,000 an ounce level.

Spot gold was up 0.5% at USD 2,012.34 per ounce by 3:01 p.m. ET (2001 GMT), after reaching its highest since May 16. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled 0.5% higher at USD 2012.4.

The dollar hovered near a three-month low, making greenback-priced gold less expensive for holders of other currencies.

Gold is likely to trade around USD 2,000 for a little bit until we get some more information from the Fed on its plan on interest rates, said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

“Gold will trade higher if they are done with rate hikes for the time being.”

Traders widely expect the U.S. central bank to hold rates in December, while pricing in about a 50-50 chance of easing in May next year, CME’s FedWatch Tool shows.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, often boosting gold prices.

Investors’ attention will be on the U.S. third-quarter GDP figures on Wednesday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index due on Thursday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

“Economic figures coming out of the U.S. this week, both on the growth and inflation front, will make or break a case for whether gold remains above USD 2,000,” said Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst at Capital.com.

On the physical front, data showed that top consumer China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong fell for a second consecutive month in October as a patchy economic recovery weighed on demand in the key bullion market.

Silver jumped 1.3% to a nearly three-month high at USD 24.62 per ounce. Platinum fell 1.3% to USD 918.51 and palladium was down 0.2% at USD 1,071.32.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Additional Reporting by Daksh Grover; Editing by David Evans and Shailesh Kuber)

Oil falls, Brent settles below USD 80 ahead of OPEC+ meeting

HOUSTON, Nov 27 – Oil prices fell on Monday, with the Brent benchmark dipping below USD 80 a barrel as investors awaited this week’s OPEC+ meeting and expected curbs on supplies into 2024.

Brent crude futures were down 60 cents, or 0.7%, at USD 79.98 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost 68 cents, or 0.9%, to USD 74.86. Both contracts lost USD 1 in early trading.

Last week, prices tumbled when OPEC+ – the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia – postponed to Nov. 30 a ministerial meeting to iron out differences on production targets for African producers.

Since then, the group, helmed by de facto leader Saudi Arabia, has moved closer to a compromise, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Friday. OPEC+ is looking at deepening oil production cuts despite its policy meeting being postponed to this Thursday, an OPEC+ source said on Monday.

“Although there are headlines that Saudi has made progress reaching consensus, there is limited risk appetite to buy crude ahead of the formal announcement,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth US.

“Until we get clarity on how this plays out, expect crude to struggle to rally,” she added.

ING analysts said they expected Saudi Arabia to roll over its additional voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) into next year, and Russia to extend its own cuts.

“Clearly, if we do not see this, it would put further downward pressure on the market,” they said in a note.

Estimated exports by OPEC countries have declined to 1.3 million bpd below levels in April, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note, in line with the group’s supply targets.

“We still expect an extension of the unilateral Saudi and Russia cuts through at least the first quarter of 2024,” the bank added.

The United Arab Emirates, however, is poised to ramp up exports of Murban crude early next year, according to traders and Reuters data.

Efforts by Iraq to resume northern crude exports via Turkey continue. Iraqi oil officials will meet representatives of international oil companies and Iraqi Kurdish officials in early December to discuss contract changes central to the issue, a deputy minister said.

The International Energy Agency said it expects a slight surplus in global oil markets in 2024 even if OPEC+ nations extend their cuts into next year.

Higher crude stockpiles in the United States have also put downward pressure on prices, analysts said. However, four analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 2 million barrels in the week to Nov. 24.

Meanwhile, mediator Qatar on Monday said a truce between Israeli and Hamas forces in Gaza had been extended by two days, continuing a pause in seven weeks of warfare. The Middle East crisis had impacted oil prices as investors worried about impacts on supply.

Money managers cut their net long US crude futures and options positions in the week to Nov. 21, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Monday.

(Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar in Houston, Paul Carsten in London, Florence Tan, and Mohi Narayan; Editing by Peter Graff, Mark Potter, Tomasz Janowski, Cynthia Osterman, and David Gregorio)

Gold up on weaker dollar as investors wait on Fed rate path

Nov 24 – Gold prices edged up on Thursday as the US dollar ticked lower, but investors remained largely on the sidelines in holiday-thinned trading with uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s rate path.

Spot gold was up 0.1% to USD 1,991.79 per ounce at 3:22 p.m. ET (2022 GMT). US gold futures were flat at USD 1,993.30.

“Absent any fresh influences, I still don’t think that gold has the momentum to maintain prices much above USD 2,000 for the rest of the year,” said StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell.

“Underlying forces are still supportive for the longer term – geopolitics, especially the Middle East and the probability of further banking stresses in the States and elsewhere – but unless either or both of these escalate, we are likely to see prices drift.”

Supporting gold, the dollar eased 0.1% against a basket of other major currencies. Benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields closed at a two-month low on Wednesday.

Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Trading is expected to be thin with most US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

“Dollar is slightly cooling down after yesterday’s (economic) data, but it’s very feeble… it’s just a normal market movement amidst lower liquidity,” said ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista.

Investors dialled back expectations of rate cuts in 2024 after data on Wednesday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week.

“The uncertainty in relation to what the Fed will do next will persist for a bit longer,” said Evangelista.

Fed officials agreed at their most recent policy meeting that they would proceed “carefully” and only raise interest rates if progress in controlling inflation faltered, the minutes of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 gathering showed on Tuesday.

Spot silver rose 0.2% to USD 23.66 per ounce, platinum fell 0.7% to USD 915.55, and palladium dropped 1.1% to USD 1,045.79.

(Reporting by Harshit Verma, Brijesh Patel and Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman, Kirsten Donovan, Elaine Hardcastle)

Japan CPI to light up dulled Thanksgiving trade

TORONTO, Nov 24 – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

With Wall Street shut for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Asian investors will miss the usual swing factor. Instead, Friday’s release of Japan’s core inflation data for October will set the tone for trading in the region.

Japan’s core consumer inflation likely accelerated again in October, staying above the central bank’s 2% price target for a 19th straight month, according to a Reuters poll.

With inflation already exceeding the Bank of Japan’s target for more than a year, the latest data may influence the central bank’s widely expected decision to raise short-term interest rates to around zero from -0.1 next year with some betting on the chance of action in January.

And upside surprise could buoy the yen against the dollar.

The BOJ faces challenges in navigating Japan away from the extremely accommodative policy of the past decade without causing market turmoil or squashing a fragile economic recovery.

In China, property stocks are likely to be in focus again on expectations Beijing would offer a range of financing to support the struggling sector.

It’s a different inflation tale on the other side of the world, with the European Central Bank satisfied with the easing price pressures in the euro zone. That made the ECB’s decision to hold rates steady in October an easy task, according to the accounts of their Oct. 25 to 26 meeting released on Thursday showed.

Stocks in Europe ended firmer, with the ECB news cementing the view that the global central banks are done with their latest tightening campaign, and if price pressures ease, 2024 could be the year of rate cuts.

But some of the inflation-easing trade is already priced into the market, reflected in the near 11% rally in the MSCI world index in the past 18 trading days. And markets need new triggers to fuel the next leg of the equities rally.

One factor could be the resilience of American consumers, who have continued to open their wallets despite higher borrowing costs.

The Black Friday sale will kick off the year-end holiday shopping season and will put to test the U.S. consumers’ appetite for spending.

Early indications are that U.S. retailers across apparel, electronics and home improvement are bracing for challenging times, and higher discounts might not spark the level of spending the companies are hoping for.

(By Denny Thomas. Editing by Josie Kao)

Major Gulf markets fall along with oil prices

Nov 23 – Major stock markets in the Gulf fell in early trade on Thursday on falling oil prices after OPEC+ postponed a ministerial meeting, leading to speculation that producers might cut output less than earlier anticipated.

Brent futures were down USD 1.02, or 1.2%, at USD 80.94 a barrel by 0625 GMT, after falling as much as 4% on Wednesday.

In a surprise move, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia delayed to Nov. 30 a ministerial meeting where they were expected to discuss oil output cuts.

Producers were struggling to agree on output levels and hence possible reductions ahead of the meeting originally set for Nov. 26, OPEC+ sources said.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index fell 0.1%, on course to extend losses from the previous session, hit by a 0.2% drop in oil giant Saudi Aramco.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud reaffirmed their commitment to preventing a spread of the Israel-Palestinian conflict on Wednesday, the State Department said.

In Abu Dhabi, the index eased 0.1%.

Trading worldwide was expected to be subdued due to the closure of US markets for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Dubai’s main share index dropped 0.3%, weighed down by a 2.3% fall in Emirates Central Cooling Systems and a 0.5% decrease in sharia-compliant lender Dubai Islamic Bank.

However, the losses were cushioned as confidence grew that interest rates globally will head lower next year.

The Qatari benchmark retreated 0.3%, with petrochemical maker Industries Qatar losing 1.2%.

(Reporting by Ateeq Shariff in Bengaluru. Editing by Bernadette Baum)

Gold gains as lower US dollar, bond yields lift sentiment

Nov 23 – Gold prices rose on Thursday, hovering close to a key USD 2,000 per ounce level as a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields buoyed demand for bullion.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at USD 1,996.84 per ounce, as of 0747 GMT, after hitting a three-week high of USD 2,007.29 on Tuesday.

US gold futures GCcv1 gained 0.3% to USD 1,998.20.

“The anticipation of this effective pivot towards interest rate hike cycle peak is translating to ongoing softness in the US dollar and the longer-dated US yield which will support gold prices, at least in the short term,” said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA.

The dollar was down 0.2% against its rivals after gains in the previous two sessions, making gold less expensive for other currency holders.

The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields fell to a two-month low on Wednesday.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, but that likely does not change the view that the labor market is slowing amid higher interest rates.

Traders widely expect the US Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged in December but dialed back expectations of rate cuts in 2024 after the jobless claims data, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Fed officials agreed at their last policy meeting that they would proceed “carefully” and only raise interest rates if progress in controlling inflation faltered, the minutes of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 gathering showed on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, US consumers’ inflation expectations rose for a second straight month in November, a survey released Wednesday showed.

Spot gold may revisit its Nov. 21 high of USD 2,007.29 per ounce, as it may have completed a correction from this level, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Spot silver rose 0.4% to USD 23.70 per ounce, platinum climbed 0.4% to USD 926.11 and palladium was steady at USD 1,057.96.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich, Eileen Soreng, Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Sohini Goswami)

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Oil slips 1% on concerns over delayed OPEC+ meeting

Nov 23 – Oil prices dipped about 1% on Thursday, extending losses on expectations that OPEC+ might not deepen output cuts next year after the producer group postponed its policy meeting.

Brent crude futures were down 68 cents, or about 0.8%, at USD 81.28 a barrel by 2024 GMT after falling as much as 4% on Wednesday.

US West Texas Intermediate crude slid 75 cents, or 1%, to USD 76.35 after dropping as much as 5% in the previous session.

Trading activity was muted because of the US Thanksgiving public holiday.

In a surprise move on Wednesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia delayed a ministerial meeting at which they were expected to discuss oil output cuts to Nov. 30.

Producers were struggling to agree on output levels ahead of the meeting originally set for Nov. 26, OPEC+ sources said, suggesting that the disagreement was largely linked to African nations.

OPEC+ members Angola and Nigeria are aiming for higher oil output, officials told Reuters on Thursday.

“We think Nigeria can be assuaged as the leadership values its longstanding OPEC membership and improving ties with Saudi Arabia,” said RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft.

“However, it may be more difficult to bridge the gap with Angola, which has been a moodier member of the producer group since it joined in 2007.”

The downside move looked overdone and the market will likely rally somewhat next week once traders return from the Thanksgiving holiday, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

The questions over OPEC+ supply come as data showed that US crude stocks jumped by 8.7 million barrels last week, much more than the 1.16 million build analysts had expected.

On the demand side, there was more bleak news. Though a survey showed the downturn in euro zone business activity eased in November, data suggested the bloc’s economy will contract again this quarter as consumers continue to rein in spending.

(Reporting by Nia Williams in British Columbia, Natalie Grover in London, Arathy Somasekhar in Houston, and Andrew Hayley in Beijing; Editing by Mark Potter, David Goodman, Alexandra Hudson, Marguerita Choy, and Jonathan Oatis)

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