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Nov 8 – Gold prices retreated for a third straight session on Wednesday as investors looked for fresh cues on the US central bank’s interest rate stance, while palladium hit a five-year low.

Spot gold was down 1% at USD 1,947.89 per ounce by 3:01 p.m. ET (2001 GMT), logging its biggest daily drop since Oct. 2. US gold futures settled 0.8% lower at USD 1,957.8.

Silver fell 0.5% to USD 22.52 per ounce.

“Traders will start looking at economic data and potential actions from the US central bank. Gold will react based on whatever the data is showing,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

“It is hard to see a catalyst for further upside in gold without a notable deterioration in the data.”

A slew of Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday maintained a balanced tone on the central bank’s next decision, but noted they would focus on more economic data and the impact of higher long-term bond yields.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at 2:00 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Gold is sensitive to rising US interest rates, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

“The risk premium gold gained from the Israel-Hamas war is eroding. If you see an escalation in the conflict, then gold can get some momentum behind it,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago.

Bullion gained over 7% in October as the conflict in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand.

Elsewhere, palladium hit its lowest levels since 2018 at USD 1,007.73 earlier in the session and was down 0.5% at 1,050.06. Platinum eased 2.8% to USD 866.31.

In the palladium market, “demand is evaporating at a pretty fast pace led by smaller production of internal combustion engines and it is also being substituted with platinum in auto catalysts components,” Ghali added.

Both metals are used in emissions-controlling devices in cars.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

NEW YORK, Nov 8 – Oil prices slid over 2% on Wednesday to their lowest in more than three months on concerns over waning demand in the US and China.

Brent crude futures settled down USD 2.07, or 2.5%, to USD 79.54 a barrel. US crude lost USD 2.04, or 2.6%, to USD 75.33. Both benchmarks hit their lowest since mid-July.

“The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance,” ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note to clients, referring to crude supply conditions.

Also weighing on prices, US crude oil stocks rose by almost 12 million barrels last week, market sources said late on Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures.

If confirmed, that would be biggest build since February. However, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has delayed release of weekly oil inventory data, usually on Wednesdays, until Nov. 15 to complete a systems upgrade.

US crude production will rise this year by slightly less than expected but petroleum consumption will fall by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), the EIA said on Tuesday, reversing its previous forecast of a 100,000-bpd increase.

Data from China, the world’s biggest crude oil importer, showed its total exports of goods and services contracted faster than expected, feeding worries about the energy demand outlook.

In the euro zone, data showing falling retail sales also highlighted weak consumer demand and the prospect of recession.

“The meltdown we’ve seen in prices is reflecting two things: concerns about the global economy hitting a brick wall based on data out of China and also a sense of confidence that the war in Israel and the Gaza Strip is not going to impact supply,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group.

Still, China’s October crude oil imports showed robust growth and its central bank governor said the world’s second-biggest economy is expected to hit its gross domestic product growth target this year. Beijing has set a target of about 5% growth.

Analysts from Goldman Sachs estimated seaborne net oil exports by six countries from oil producer group OPEC will remain only 600,000 bpd below April levels. OPEC has announced cumulative production cuts amounting to 2 million bpd since April 2023.

Russia, a part of the producer groups known as OPEC+, is considering lifting an export ban on some grades of gasoline, Interfax news agency quoted Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov as saying.

Moscow introduced a ban on fuel exports on Sept. 21 to tackle high domestic prices and shortages. The government eased restrictions on Oct. 6, allowing diesel exports by pipeline, but kept measures on gasoline exports.

Barclays lowered its 2024 Brent crude price forecast by USD 4 to USD 93 a barrel.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly, Paul Carsten and Muyu Xu; Editing by Marguerita Choy and David Gregorio)

Nov 8 – Oil prices fell on Wednesday to their lowest in over three months, after industry data showed a steep build in US crude supplies, while mixed Chinese economic data raised worries about global demand for crude.

Brent crude futures dropped 25 cents to USD 81.36 a barrel by 0001 GMT, while US crude futures fell 35 cents to USD 77.02 a barrel. Both declined to the lowest since July 24 in early Asia trade.

US crude oil stocks rose by almost 12 million barrels last week, market sources said late Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will delay the release of weekly inventory data until the week of Nov. 13.

Crude oil production in the United States this year will rise by slightly less than previously expected while demand will fall, the EIA said on Tuesday.

The EIA now expects total petroleum consumption in the country to fall by 300,000 bpd this year, reversing its earlier forecast of a 100,000 bpd increase.

Data in China, the world’s biggest consumer of oil, also raised doubts about the demand outlook.

Crude oil imports by the world’s second-biggest economy in October showed robust growth but its total exports of goods and services contracted at a quicker pace than expected, adding to fears of lower global energy demand.

Adding to pressure on oil prices was a modest recovery in the US dollar from recent lows, which makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

BENGALURU, Nov 8 – The dollar’s recent weakness will linger for the rest of the year, according to a majority of FX strategists in a Reuters poll, who also said economic data will be the primary influencer of major currencies for the rest of 2023.

A stronger-than-expected US economy and rising Treasury yields as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to curb high inflation provided the dollar with an unassailable edge over its peers.

But renewed expectations the Fed is done with its rate hikes have put the dollar at a disadvantage, with the currency losing almost 2.0% from last month’s peak, leaving the dollar index up around 2% for the year.

Suggesting the current dollar weakening trend has further to go, a near two-thirds majority of analysts, 28 of 45, who answered a separate question said the dollar is likely to trade lower than current levels against major currencies by year-end.

They also expect it to slip against the euro and other G10 currencies over the next 12 months, a position analysts have held all year but have been proven wrong each time. Some are sounding more confident this time they will be right.

“The dollar and US yields have had a strong bullish trend over the (past) two to three months … but it looks like we’ve reached a point where yields and the dollar have peaked out,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

“It’s going to be harder for yields to hit fresh highs this year because markets are now more confident that the Fed is done hiking, speculation has already started to intensify again that next year we could see a policy reversal from the Fed with speculation building over more aggressive Fed rate cuts next year.”

When asked what will be the primary influencer of major currencies for the rest of the year, a slim majority of analysts, 26 of 49, said economic data. Another 20 said interest rate differentials, and three said safe-haven demand.

Recent employment data suggest cracks are finally appearing in the world’s largest economy’s surprising resilience to rate hikes over the past year and a half. But the US economy is still performing better than all of its peers.

The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed currency speculators were still overwhelmingly net-long on the US dollar, suggesting there was still plenty of support for the greenback.

“At the moment, we’re still tactically long dollar and we think this will have further to run into year-end, primarily against currencies where they continue to show weak fundamentals. EUR/USD would be the primary case of that,” said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe.

The eurozone economy shrank 0.1% last quarter and is expected to flat-line in this one, barely skirting a recession. The euro EUR=, after clawing back all of its losses for the year, is predicted to gain around 4.0% over the coming 12-months.

Median predictions from 72 foreign exchange strategists showed the common currency trading at USD 1.07, USD 1.08 and USD 1.11 in the next three, six, and 12 months. Those estimates are broadly unchanged from an October survey.

The Japanese yen, the worst-performing major currency for the year, is expected to remain under pressure in the near term.

Asked what is the weakest level the yen will trade against the dollar by year-end, 20 analysts who answered a separate question returned a median of 152/dollar.

However, the currency, which has lost about a third of its value since 2021 including 13% this year alone, is expected to recoup most of its 2023 losses over the next 12 months.

The yen is expected to gain over 10% to change hands at 136/dollar in a year, the poll showed.

Sterling, already up around 1.5% in 2023, is forecast to gain 3.5% to USD 1.27 in a year.

Emerging market currencies are expected to take well into next year to post noticeable gains against a retreating US dollar.

(Reporting by Hari Kishan; Polling by Sarupya Ganguly, Purujit Arun, Devayani Sathyan, and Anant Chandak; Editing by Ross Finley and Mark Potter)

Nov 7 – Gold hit a two-week low on Tuesday as a safe-haven rally triggered by Middle East tensions lost steam with the market focus turning to interest rate cues from Federal Reserve officials, while palladium slid to a five-year low.

Spot gold fell 0.5% to USD 1,968.19 per ounce by 3:20 p.m. ET (2020 GMT), its lowest since Oct. 24. US gold futures settled down 0.8% at USD 1,973.50.

Silver fell nearly 2% to USD 22.60.

The dollar gained 0.3%, also driving the retreat across metals.

Gold is holding at these levels on expectations the Fed is done raising rates and “the sooner the first rate cut gets pushed in the forecast, the better it is for gold”, said Everett Millman, chief market analyst at Gainesville Coins.

Lower interest rates boost the appeal of zero-yield bullion and the focus will be on Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday and Thursday, and other Fed officials due to speak this week.

“Everything would have to go right economically in order for gold to sell off (in 2024),” Millman added.

Bullion hit a five-month high in October as a result of the Israel-Hamas conflict. But recent declines suggest investors are becoming less concerned about geopolitics, Marios Hadjikyriacos, investment analyst at forex broker XM, wrote in a note.

Palladium fell 4.4% to USD 1,057.50, after dropping as much as 5.1% to a five-year low earlier. Platinum eased 1.6% to USD 890.84.

Both are used in car engine exhausts to reduce emissions.

“Substitution from palladium to platinum and more electric vehicles being sold will likely push the metal into a structural surplus next year,” UBS said in a note, forecasting palladium prices at USD 1,050 in the second half of 2024.

Impala Platinum said it was offering voluntary job cuts at some South African mines to cut costs amid falling platinum prices.

Traders also took stock of mixed economic data from key market China.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru, Editing by Arpan Varghese and Alexander Smith)