December cheer, China fear

Dec 1 – Asian markets round out the week on Friday in reasonably good spirits, with a deluge of purchasing managers index data from across the continent and a sprinkling of key indicators from Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia the most likely market-moving catalysts.

Friday is also the first trading day of December, so perhaps an opportunity to get the last month of the year off to a positive start.

The Dow Jones on Thursday posted its highest close in nearly two years, and if broader market momentum from November spills over, that is a likely scenario – for some Asian stock markets, November was the best month in a long time.

On the other hand, Thursday’s month-end reversal in the dollar and bonds – the dollar and Treasury yields rose sharply – will sound a loud note of caution.

Unemployment data from Japan, trade data from South Korea, and the latest readout on inflation from Indonesia are among the highlights on the Asian economic calendar, along with a raft of purchasing managers index reports from across the region.

They include Australia, South Korea, and India, as well as China’s ‘unofficial’ PMI. The ‘official’ PMI report from the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that manufacturing activity in China shrank for a second month in November, and at a faster rate than had been expected.

A similar reading on Friday will only enhance the already growing calls for more stimulus.

China’s leading index of blue chip stocks fell 2% in November, its fourth monthly decline in a row. It is down almost 10% year-to-date, underperforming most of its regional and global peers.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan and emerging market indexes both snapped three-month losing streaks in November, rising 7% or more for their best month since January, while Japan’s Nikkei gained 8.5% for its best month in three years.

The general gloom surrounding China’s economy and financial markets shows little sign of lifting, despite some sporadic positive surprises recently like the strong third quarter GDP growth figures.

A survey by central banking think tank OMFIF of 22 public pension and sovereign wealth funds managing USD 4.3 trillion in assets, showed that none reported a positive outlook for China’s economy.

They cited the regulatory environment and geopolitics as the primary factors dissuading them from investing. Foreigners already appear to be voting with their feet – China just recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in foreign direct investment.

As more aggressive Fed rate cut expectations chip away at the US dollar, investors are turning more bullish on Asian currencies, a Reuters poll found. Perhaps unsurprisingly, one of the few exceptions is the Chinese yuan.

Still, the yuan is trading around its strongest level against the dollar since June and just clocked its biggest monthly gain in a year, rising around 2.5% in November.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

– PMIs for Australia, South Korea, India, China

– Japan unemployment (October)

– Indonesia inflation (October)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

US yields higher after data; 10-year poised for biggest monthly drop since 2011

NEW YORK, Nov 30 – US Treasury yields climbed on Thursday, even after economic data provided more evidence that the Federal Reserve could end hiking interest rates, as a sharp drop in yields in recent weeks put the benchmark 10-year US Treasury on pace for its biggest monthly drop since August 2011.

Data showed US consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years. On the jobs front, initial jobless claims rose from the prior week to indicate a softening of the labor market.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose 7 basis points (bps) to 4.34%. For the month, the 10-year yield was down 52.2 bps, on track for its biggest monthly fall since August 2011.

“Way overdone, especially rate cuts as soon as May priced in now, so just giving some of that back, but yields are still lower on the month, it’s just a marginal giveback on the day,” said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income at Action Economics in San Francisco.

“The data (Thursday) morning was quite bond-friendly so I was at first a little bit surprised to see rates go up instead of further down, but, again, come a long way and they’re at lows of the of the month basically, if not longer,” Rupert added.

Softening economic data has heightened expectations that the Fed has completed its rate hike cycle while projecting a greater likelihood that the central bank will need to cut rates in the coming months.

Markets are pricing in a greater than 75% chance that the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 bps in May, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, up from about 55% a week ago.

Many Fed officials have refused to rule out the possibility that another hike may be needed should the economic data change course, but yields fell sharply earlier this week after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, seen as a hawkish member of the central bank, flagged the possibility of a rate cut if inflation continues to decline.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 7 basis points to 4.522%.

On Thursday, Fed officials including New York Fed Bank President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated the central bank was likely done with rate hikes, but left open the possibility of further hikes should progress on inflation ebb.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at negative 37.1 basis points after rising to negative 35.5, its shallowest inversion since Nov. 9.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 7 basis points to 4.715%. The yield has tumbled 34.1 bps in November, on pace for its biggest drop since March.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.181% after closing at 2.168% on Wednesday.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.25%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; additional reporting by Stephen Culp; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Will Dunham)

Gold heads for second straight monthly rise on Fed pause bets

Nov 30 – Gold slipped on Thursday but remained on track for a second straight monthly gain as expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon cut interest rates enhanced the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

Spot gold slipped 0.4% to USD 2,036.47 per ounce by 2:40 p.m. ET (1940 GMT) after hitting a near seven-month peak in the previous session. Prices have gained 2.7% so far this month.

US gold futures settled 0.5% lower at USD 2,057.2.

Contributing to gold’s slight dip, the dollar index rose for the day. But the currency was headed for its worst month in a year, while 10-year Treasury yields hit a two-and-a-half month low.

“Gold might be a little tired here but it’s had a very nice run. The pullback (in prices) should be limited to USD 2,015-USD 2,020 and no concerns will be felt unless we fall back below USD 2000,” Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

Traders have advanced bets for a rate cut from an 80% chance in May to a one-in-two chance in March, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

“We’re expecting gold prices to break into new highs in the first half of 2024 as we approach the Fed pivot and (with) the economy likely to slow,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Traders took stock of data showing US consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest since early 2021. Jobless claims rose slightly.

The focus will be on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.

J.P. Morgan in its 2024 commodities outlook highlighted that across commodities the only structural bullish call they held was on gold and silver.

Silver rose 0.9% to USD 25.22 per ounce and was set for its second straight monthly gain.

Platinum was down 0.3% at USD 929.09. Palladium dipped 1.4% to USD 1,013.15.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru. Editing by Jane Merriman and Arun Koyyur)

Appetite for stocks drives VIX options as investors guard portfolios

NEW YORK, Nov 30 – Renewed appetite for stocks is helping to drive investors’ interest in volatility-linked options that could buffer their portfolios against stock swings, putting those contracts on track for record trading volume this year.

The S&P 500 is up 18% so far this year, compared to last year’s 19% decline – a rally turbocharged in recent weeks by expectations the US Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates.

That has come alongside record average trading volume in contracts betting on the Cboe Volatility Index or VIX — known as Wall Street’s fear gauge — as looming economic and geopolitical risks keep investors cautious about a potential return of volatility.

“This indicates people are nervous,” said Mandy Xu, head of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe. “This year, the consensus is that we are at or near the end of the hiking cycle but there is no good consensus view of what is next.”

Markets appear tranquil now, she added, but such an environment is one where a black swan event could make volatility spike with its unpredictability and far-reaching consequences.

VIX options contracts averaged nearly 760,000 daily, surpassing the record set in 2017, according to Cboe Global Markets data as of Nov. 27. That’s a 42% increase from 2022 and up 5% from the previous record, with VIX options-trading in October at a high for the year.

Trading in VIX call options, which would profit if the VIX rises and are typically used for protection, including tail hedges which guard against larger unexpected market losses, have risen 54% this year. Put options on the VIX, which benefit from declining volatility, rose by 24%.

Joe Ferrara, investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, whose strategies seek to capitalize on the difference between implied and realized volatility, said investors see a growing list of potentially volatile events including wars and elections on the horizon. Such investors are “looking at trading VIX options as a way to potentially monetize their thinking”, he said.

The VIX tends to move inversely with the S&P 500, rising when stocks fall.

Currently at 13, the VIX is below its long-term median of 18, meaning investors can buy relatively cheap insurance and position in potentially profitable trades.

“What we’re seeing now is inexpensive given the amount of potential turmoil in the market,” said JJ Kinahan, president of tastytrade, a retail broker.

The rise in VIX options trading is a change from 2022 when investors were reducing equities exposure and hoarding cash, according to CBOE data.

With the VIX averaging 17 this year, VIX options’ trading volume as a share of overall options volume is at 1.76%, the highest since 2020 – a much more volatile year when the VIX averaged 29, according to a Reuters analysis based on Trade Alert data.

Seth Hickle, derivatives portfolio manager at Innovative Portfolios in Indiana, said returns on volatility strategies can be erratic in the short term, but can be consistent over long periods.

“In an average volatility year, I would not be shocked to see volume trends continue to rise in VIX options as more market participants accept and embrace volatility as an alternative asset class and the need to hedge that exposure grows,” said Hickle.

Timing profit-taking on VIX options in an environment where jumps in the volatility index are fleeting can be difficult, said Roni Israelov, chief investment officer at NDVR.

The potential for the index to make huge moves in very short periods also makes it “an attractive instrument” for speculators, said Hickle.

“I think there are speculators out there saying with a 14 handle on the VIX, maybe it’s worth taking that bet and making that trade.”

(Reporting by Laura Matthews in New York; additional reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York; Editing by Megan Davies and Chizu Nomiyama)

Oil falls over 2% after OPEC+ cuts fall short of expectations

Nov 30 – Oil prices fell by more than 2% on Thursday after OPEC+ producers agreed to voluntary oil output cuts for the first quarter next year that fell short of market expectations.

Brent crude futures for January settled 27 cents, or 0.3%, lower to expire at USD 82.83 a barrel, and a 5.2% loss for the month. The February contract, which begins trading as the front month on Friday, fell USD 2.00, or 2.4%, to USD 80.86.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down USD 1.90, or 2.4%, to USD 75.96, and down 6.2% in November.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other members of OPEC+, who pump more than 40% of the world’s oil, agreed to voluntary output cuts approaching 2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter of 2024.

At least 1.3 million bpd of those cuts, however, were an extension of voluntary curbs that Saudi Arabia and Russia already had in place. Earlier, delegates had said new additional cuts under discussion were as much as 2 million bpd.

“For now, the outcome does not live up to the expectation… in recent days,” said Callum MacPherson, head of commodities at Investec.

The voluntary nature of the cuts left investors nonplussed.

“From what we’ve seen so far, this looks like a paper cut of around 600-700,000 barrels per day (bpd) vs Q4 2023 planned levels,” said James Davis at FGE.

“It could at best be an actual cut of around 500,000 bpd compared to Q4. This might be just enough to keep the market balanced in Q1, but it will be close.”

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Algeria were among producers who said cuts would be unwound gradually after the first quarter, market conditions permitting.

The meeting, being held on the same day as global leaders gather in Dubai for the U.N. climate conference, was originally scheduled for last week but was deferred because of disagreements over output quotas for African producers.

OPEC+ also invited Brazil, a top 10 oil producer, to become a member of the group. The country’s energy minister said it hoped to join in January.

Meanwhile, crude output in the US, the world’s top producer, continued to grow, rising 1.7% in September to a monthly record of 13.24 million bpd, the Energy Information Administration said.

Crude production in Texas fell by 0.1% to 5.57 million bpd, the lowest since July and the first time production in the state has fallen since April, the EIA said.

(Reporting by Laura Sanicola in Washington; Editing by Simon Webb, Lisa Shumaker and Marguerita Choy)

Gold holds ground ahead of US inflation test

Nov 30 – Gold prices consolidated in a tight range on Thursday, hovering close to a near seven-month high, as investors awaited a key inflation print to gauge whether interest rate cuts in the US would come sooner than expected.

Spot gold was down 0.1% at USD 2,041.76 per ounce by 0543 GMT, after hitting its highest since May 5 on Wednesday, and was poised for its second straight monthly gain. Bullion was trading in a range of about USD 5 on Thursday.

US gold futures for December delivery fell 0.2% to USD 2,042.40 per ounce.

“Prices seem to be taking a slight breather in today’s session, with some wait-and-see,” IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said, ahead of the U.S. personal consumption expenditure data – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – at 1330 GMT.

“Despite the US Q3 GDP posing an upside surprise overnight, the data failed to sway market rate-cut bets, as sentiments continue to take cues from more recent Fed (officials’) comments.”

Federal Reserve officials this week flagged the possibility of a rate cut in the upcoming months and expected growth to slow down and inflation to continue to ease, dragging yields on 10-year Treasury notes to a two-and-a-half month low of 4.2470%.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion.

Traders have now advanced their bets for a rate cut by the US central bank from an 80% chance in May to a one-in-two chance in March, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Making gold less expensive for other currency holders, the dollar index drifted near three-month lows, and was set to log its worst monthly performance in a year in November.

Investor focus will also be on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is due to speak on Friday.

Spot silver fell 0.2% to USD 24.95 per ounce. Platinum was down 0.2% at USD 930.24. Palladium fell 0.4% to USD 1,023.42 per ounce.

Can bumper data, policy day jolt markets?

Nov 30 – If this week has so far been strangely listless for Asian markets, that could be about to change suddenly on Thursday as investors brace for a deluge of top-tier economic data and policy events from across the continent.

Among the highlights, South Korea’s central bank sets interest rates, China releases its official manufacturing and service sector purchasing managers index reports for November, and India announces its third quarter growth figures.

The latest industrial production and retail sales data from both Japan and South Korea are on tap too, all of which could move their respective markets, especially currencies.

All else equal, the risks for Asian markets on Thursday may be tilted to the upside, even though stock markets around the world again struggled on Wednesday.

That’s largely because the ongoing fall in the dollar and US bond yields continues to loosen financial conditions. In theory, this should boost animal spirits and the allure of riskier, higher-yielding assets.

US financial conditions are the loosest since early September and have eased 100 basis points in a month, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank’s global and emerging market indexes ticked up a bit last week, but financial conditions are also looser by around 100 bps from a month ago.

US rates futures markets are now pricing in more than 100 basis points of rate cuts next year starting in May, and the two-year Treasury yield is its lowest since July – it has slumped nearly 40 basis points this week alone.

The dollar on Wednesday hit its lowest since Aug. 10, and most Asian and regional currencies are taking advantage. Two of the best performers are at the polar opposite ends of the ‘carry’ spectrum – the New Zealand dollar and the Japanese yen.

The “kiwi” dollar got an extra boost on Wednesday following the central bank’s ‘hawkish hold’ – policymakers kept the key cash rate at a relatively high 5.50%, but unexpectedly signaled that it could be raised again if inflation doesn’t moderate.

Remarkably, Japanese interest rates are still negative, but maybe not for much longer. Expectations the Bank of Japan will soon end its negative rate policy have pulled the yen up from the depths, and in the process, eased pressure on the central bank to support the currency via direct FX market intervention.

South Korea’s central bank is expected to keep its base rate on hold at 3.50% and leave it there until at least the middle of next year. But as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed on Wednesday, policymakers retain the ability to surprise.

Indian GDP growth, meanwhile, is expected to have slowed to a 6.8% annual rate in the July-September period from 7.8%, while Chinese factor activity likely contracted again in November but at a slower pace.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

– South Korea interest rate decision

– China official PMIs (November)

– India GDP (Q3)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

US yields extend decline after GDP data, Fed comments

NEW YORK, Nov 29 – US Treasury yields dropped on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note on track for a third straight session of declines, as the latest reading on economic growth failed to upend market expectations that a Federal Reserve rate cut was on the horizon.

Gross domestic product increased at a 5.2% annualized rate last quarter, revised up from the previously reported 4.9% pace and the fastest pace of expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its second estimate of third-quarter GDP. However, the effect of borrowing costs on the labor market and spending appears to have stalled momentum.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes declined 7 basis points to 4.269% after falling to 4.253%, its lowest since Sept. 14. For the month, the yield is currently on track for its biggest drop since December 2008.

Softening economic data, including a reading on inflation two weeks ago, has heightened expectations the Fed has completed its rate hike cycle, while projecting a greater likelihood the central bank will need to cut rates in the coming months.

“We’ve just had a gigantic move and it’s ongoing, it raises the question what’s going on, why the big move and there’s a number of factors – one of them is that when the rates got up to 5% the Fed said, ‘No mas, we are tightening too much,'” said Robert Tipp, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds at PGIM Fixed Income in Newark, New Jersey.

“The next thing that happened was the data started going the right way, the unemployment rate is up and inflation is decelerating and that all points the light in the direction of the next move is going to be a cut… right now everything came together to traverse from the high side to the low side.”

Underscoring the slowing momentum in the economy, the Fed said in its “Beige Book” on Wednesday that US economic activity slowed from late October through the middle of November, while businesses reported inflation largely moderating and easier hiring for jobs.

Markets are pricing in a nearly 80% chance that the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points in May, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, up from about 65% on Tuesday. Projections for a March cut of at least 25 basis points have also grown and are now showing a nearly 50% chance compared with a roughly 35% chance the prior day.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell 8 basis points to 4.444%.

Yields fell on Tuesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, seen as a hawkish member of the central bank, flagged the possibility of a rate cut if inflation continues to decline.

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he expects US growth to slow and inflation to continue to ease on the back of tight monetary policy, although Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a non-voting member of the central bank, said talking about rate cuts is “premature.”

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 9 basis points to 4.65% after touching 4.608%, its lowest level since July 13.

Investors will get another look at inflation data on Thursday in the form of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a negative 38.3 basis points, up from a negative 52.62 on Tuesday.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.171% after closing at 2.173% on Tuesday.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.224%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.2% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Will Dunham and Deepa Babington)

Gold steadies near 7-month peak on Fed rate cut bets

Nov 29 – Gold firmed near its highest in about seven months on Wednesday as expectations that the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by the first half of next year boosted the outlook for the zero-yield precious metal.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at USD 2,043.94 per ounce by 3:44 p.m. ET (2044 GMT), after hitting its highest since May 5.

US gold futures settled 0.3% higher at USD 2,067.1.

“Our belief is that there could be some pullback in gold next week, but in general, we believe this trend of sideways to higher momentum will continue in the near future,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

“The current belief is that the Fed is done hiking rates and rate cuts will come by 2024, if data supports or undermines that argument, we will see the gold market trade accordingly.”

Lower rates boost demand for non-yielding gold.

Traders are now pricing in a 48% chance of rates easing in March, up from about 35% on Tuesday, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday flagged a possible rate cut in the months ahead.

The dollar index rose 0.1% for the day after dropping to its lowest since Aug. 11. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for overseas buyers.

Also helping gold, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell, poised to mark their worst month since July 2021.

Investors will monitor the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on Thursday, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, for further insights into the rate outlook.

Beyond near-term economic, interest rate, and geopolitical concerns, US gold investors’ focus is likely to shift towards the state of financial markets, said Ryan McIntyre, senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management.

Silver fell 0.1% to USD 24.99 per ounce and platinum lost 0.9% to USD 931.20. Palladium dropped 2.5% to USD 1,028.39 per ounce.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Ashitha Shivaprasad; additional reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Shailesh Kuber)

Dollar rises from three-month low; hawkish RBNZ boosts kiwi

LONDON/SINGAPORE, Nov 29 – The US dollar ticked up on Wednesday after falling to its lowest in more than three months on hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon be cutting rates.

New Zealand’s dollar was one of the biggest movers, rising 0.49% to USD 0.6166, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday held interest rates but warned that further policy tightening might be needed.

The kiwi had surged more than 1% earlier in the session to a four-month high of USD 0.6207.

Comments from Fed official Christopher Waller flagging a possible rate cut in the months ahead sent U.S. bond yields and the dollar sliding on Tuesday.

“(Waller’s) relatively hawkish, historically speaking, so if his attitude is turning a little bit more dovish, it sort of says that perhaps a general consensus of the board members is that rates have peaked and maybe could even be cut next year,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six peers, hit its lowest since early August at 102.46.

It then pared some of its losses and was last up 0.12% at 102.73. The dollar was on track to fall 3.7% in November, its biggest monthly drop in a year.

“Essentially it’s come off the back of the U.S. and global bond rally, in particular with the U.S. 10-year (Treasury note),” said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR dropped 5 basis points (bps) on Tuesday and was down by the same amount again on Wednesday to 4.2898%, its lowest since mid-September.

Yields move inversely to price, and lower bond yields make fixed income investments in a country look less attractive relative to peers, weighing on the local currency.

The euro briefly crossed USD 1.10 for the first time since August on Tuesday but pared gains and was little changed at USD 1.0991.

Inflation data from Spain and the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia showed that price pressures in the euro zone continued to ease in November.

“On an intraday basis (the euro) has come off the high… so there has been some impact for sure,” Tan said.

“But of course, on the flip side U.S. bond yields are continuing to grind lower,” he added. “There are two contrasting forces at play here.”

The euro zone-wide inflation figure is due out on Thursday, before the Fed’s preferred measure of U.S. inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE.

Japan’s yen, which is particularly sensitive to U.S. bond yields, held on to recent gains on Wednesday. The dollar was little changed at 147.37 after earlier falling to a more-than-two-month low of 146.68 yen.

China’s onshore yuan finished the domestic session at 7.1246 per dollar, the strongest closing price since June 16.

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