FX traders badly positioned for sharp rate change expectations

Dec 4 – FX traders are badly positioned for the recent sharp change in expectations for US interest rates.

The possibility of further tightening and a strong belief that rates would remain elevated for a long time have been swiftly replaced by the probability of a cut as early as March next year.

Traders who are predominantly betting that the dollar will rise have had little time to change their positions, leaving a lot of these bullish bets exposed during a month when liquidity is apt to fall and potentially exacerbate the extent of any dollar drop.

Positioning data is masking the extent of the issue because other traders have added to bets on EUR/USD rising, a single position now almost as large as all the others combined.

Excluding bets on the euro, those placed on the dollar rising total around USD 23 billion, which is large enough when supported by fundamentals but probably unsustainable given the about turn on the interest rate outlook.

Bigger bets against JPY, INR, MYR, AUD, and CAD are the most vulnerable but with traders also betting against NZD, GBP, and CHF, and no sizeable bets against the USD versus any of the Asian currencies in Reuters FX poll, they have much to worry about.

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Gold takes a breather after record run on rate cut bets

Dec 4 – Gold edged down after scaling a record high on Monday, with growing confidence that the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates early next year, keeping bullion well above USD 2,000.

Spot gold slipped about 0.1% at USD 2,069.86 per ounce by 1203 GMT. US gold futures also fell 0.1% to USD 2,088.90.

“If signs of low interest rates become more evident, gold should continue to soar next year. Yet, the price of the precious metal will not move in a one-way street upwards,” with technical indicators suggesting the market has overheated, said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus.

While there may be short-term profit-taking, “this doesn’t change the fact: The sentiment for gold is positive,” he added.

Keeping gold’s gains in check, the dollar index edged up 0.1%, making bullion more expensive for other currency holders.

Earlier in the Asian session, gold jumped nearly 2% to a record high of USD 2,111.39 on renewed expectations of a rate cut following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell‘s comments on Friday.

Traders are now pricing in a 70% chance for a rate cut by March, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which yields no interest.

However, “in the near term, gold could fall below USD 2,000/oz if earlier Fed pricing proves too aggressive. Ultimately, we are buyers on dips and forecast USD 2,250/oz by end-2024,” UBS said in a note.

Comex gold speculators raised net long position by 29,517 contracts to 144,410 in week to Nov. 28, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

Traders now await the U.S. non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday, which could help further gauge the interest rate outlook, after data last week pointed towards cooling inflationary pressures and a gradually easing labour market.

Silver XAG= slipped 0.1% to $25.17 per ounce, palladium fell 1.1% to USD 989.07, and platinum dipped 0.5% to USD 928.42.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru, Additional reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad, Harshit Verma, and Anushree Mukherjee; Editing by Varun H K and Sohini Goswami)

Bull market in view after S&P 500 hits fresh year-high

NEW YORK, Dec 4 – The bull is nearly loose.

The S&P 500’s feverish late-year rally has brought the index to its highest level of 2023, leaving it just 4.2% away from the all-time peak reached in January 2022.

A close above 4,796.56 on the S&P 500 would confirm that the index has been in a bull market since bottoming out on Oct. 12, 2022, by one commonly used definition. The benchmark index is up 19.7% for the year and has risen 28.5% from its October 2022 low.

A look at bull markets of the past suggests that investors should expect stocks to take a breather before marching higher.

At the same time, plenty of obstacles remain for U.S. stocks, including the possibility that the Fed’s rate hikes chill the economy, upending the soft-landing hopes that have propelled equities higher.

SMALLER THAN YOUR AVERAGE BEAR

With the S&P 500 closing at a new year-high on Friday investors are close to getting confirmation that the bear market that started in January 2022 is over.

Some investors define a bear market specifically as a decline of at least 20% in a stock or index from its previous peak. By that definition, the bear market that began when the S&P 500 hit its previous record on Jan. 3, 2022 was not particularly painful.

The S&P 500 closed down 25.4% at its lowest point, making this the fourth shallowest bear market experienced by the index since 1928, according to data from Yardeni Research.

At the same time, at 282 calendar days, it was somewhat shorter than the average bear market length of 341 days, based on data from Yardeni Research going back to 1928.

STRONG LIKE BULL

History also suggests that bull markets tend to feed off themselves, as strong stock performance pulls investors off the sidelines and boosts appetite for risk.

Over the past 50 years, stocks have witnessed an average gain of nearly 260% during the six bull markets that have occurred.

NOT SO FAST

Of course, stocks rarely rise in a straight line. Over the last 50 years, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 16% in the three-month period leading up to a bull market.

By contrast, the S&P 500 has logged average gains of just 0.2% and 2.0%, in the one-month and three-month period after a bull market is confirmed.

SPEED BUMPS AHEAD?

At the same time, there is no shortage of factors that could slow a rally or hurt investor confidence.

Many investors are watching the U.S. economy: Expectations of an economic soft-landing, where the Fed manages to cool inflation without badly hurting growth, have supported the rally in stocks. But signs that the Fed’s 525 basis points of rate increases are slowing growth more than expected could argue for a more cautious approach to stocks and other so-called risky assets.

One recession signal, the inverted yield curve, continues to hang over investors. Yields on two-year Treasuries have stood above those on 10-year Treasuries since July 2022. The 2/10 year yield curve has inverted six to 24 months before each recession since 1955, a 2018 report by researchers at the San Francisco Fed showed.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Lisa Shumaker)

Oil falls on doubts OPEC+ will make further cuts

HOUSTON, Dec 4 – Oil prices fell on Monday on concern about a drop in demand and on continued uncertainty about the depth and duration of OPEC+ supply cuts.

Brent crude futures settled down 85 cents, or 1.08%, at USD 78.03 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished down USD 1.03, or 1.39%, at USD 73.04.

Monday’s fall adds to a 2% decline last week after the supply cuts announced on Thursday by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+.

“The market has decided (OPEC+ production plans) are not going to have that much of an impact. It’s more style over substance,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said about crude traders on Monday.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said in a televised interview with Bloomberg on Monday that he expected OPEC and its allies to bring about the 2.2 million in crude oil production cuts announced last week.

“I honestly believe that the delivery of the 2.2 will happen,” Bin Salman said. “I honestly believe that will continue to happen (and the) 2 million will overcome even the huge inventory build that usually happens in the first quarter.”

OPEC+ last week announced production cuts that are voluntary in nature, raising doubts about whether or not producers would fully implement them. Investors were also unsure about how the cuts would be measured.

Traders over the past five months have waited to see if cuts in production as well as predicted changes in demand would come to fruition, said Zane Curry, vice president of markets and research for Mobius Risk Group.

“We’ve become Missouri, the Show-Me state,” Curry said.

Surveys on Friday showed global manufacturing activity remained weak in November on soft demand, with eurozone factory activity contracting, while there were mixed signs on the strength of China’s economy.

“The OPEC+ ‘deal’ last week was unconvincing to say the least,” said Craig Erlam, analyst at brokerage OANDA. “And with markets seemingly anticipating more of an economic slowdown next year, the announcement simply doesn’t go far enough.”

Elsewhere, Western countries have stepped up efforts to enforce the USD 60-a-barrel price cap on seaborne shipments of Russian oil imposed to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine.

Washington on Friday imposed additional sanctions on three entities and three oil tankers.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba; Additional reporting by Alex Lawler, Mohi Narayan, and Florence Tan; Editing by David Goodman, Sharon Singleton, Susan Fenton, Bill Berkrot, and Lincoln Feast)

Dovish Fed view courses through markets

Dec 4 (Reuters) – Asian markets are poised to start the week on the front foot, emboldened by Wall Street’s late rally on Friday and plunge in US rate expectations after Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave the clearest signal yet that the Fed is done raising interest rates and could soon move to cut them.

The S&P 500’s rise to its highest level this year, and continued loosening of financial conditions via the falling dollar and bond yields should pave the way for a positive open for Asian stocks and risk assets on Monday.

The dollar shed 3% in November, its biggest monthly fall in a year, and last week fell for a third week in a row. The two-year US Treasury yield slumped 40 basis points last week – its steepest fall since March – and the implied rate on December 2024 ‘SOFR’ futures on Friday fell below 4% for the first time.

That packs a powerful punch. Many will argue that the US bond and rates markets have gotten far too carried away, and that the Fed will not ease so quickly and aggressively next year.

But Fed policymakers are now in their ‘blackout period’ ahead of the December 12-13 policy meeting. This means there will be no guidance from officials to take the wind out of investors’ sails, certainly not on Monday, when the economic calendar is also very light.

There would appear to be room for Asian equities to bounce back – by some measures, the region’s underperformance has rarely been this bad in years.

The regional calendar highlights on Monday are New Zealand trade data and Australian inventories and corporate profit data, all for the third quarter.

Economists polled by Reuters expect New Zealand’s terms of trade to fall 1.9% on from the previous quarter, Australian inventories to fall 0.6%, and export volumes to slide 3.8%.

The economic and policy calendar for the rest of the week has plenty more potential market-moving moments, including interest rate decisions from Australia and India, inflation figures from South Korea, the Philippines and Thailand, and GDP from Japan, Australia, and South Korea.

On the policy front, the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday is expected to keep its cash rate on hold at a 12-year high of 4.35%, according to 28 of 30 analysts polled by Reuters. The other two are going for a 25-basis-point hike.

New Zealand’s central bank surprised markets last week with the hawkish rhetoric that accompanied its decision to leave rates on hold, and the RBA could echo a similar message.

In stark contrast to the Fed, rates futures markets are barely pricing in any rate cuts from the RBA next year at all. Indeed, the chance of a hike in the coming months is greater than the chance of a cut, current pricing shows.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:

– New Zealand trade (Q3)

– Australia inventories, corporate profits (Q3)

– South Korea monetary base (November)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Diane Craft)

Tax-loss selling, ‘Santa rally’ could sway US stocks after November melt-up

NEW YORK, Dec 1 – As US stocks sit on hefty gains at the close of a rollercoaster year, investors are eyeing factors that could sway equities in the remaining weeks of 2023, including tax loss selling and the so-called Santa Claus rally.

The key catalyst for stocks will likely continue to be the expected trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Evidence of cooling economic growth has fueled bets that the US central bank could begin cutting rates as early as the first half of 2024, sparking a rally that has boosted the S&P 500 19.6% year-to-date and taken the index to a fresh closing high for the year on Friday.

At the same time, seasonal trends have been particularly strong this year. In September, historically the weakest month for stocks, the S&P 500 fell nearly 5%. Stocks swung wildly in October, a month noted for its volatility. The S&P 500 gained nearly 9% gain in November, historically a strong month for the index.

“We’ve had a solid year, but history shows that December can sometimes move to its own beat,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York.

Investors next week will be watching US employment data, due out on Dec. 8, to see whether economic growth is continuing to level off.

Overall, December has been the second-best month for the S&P 500, with the index up an average of 1.54% for the month since 1945, according to CFRA. It is also the month most likely to post a gain, with the index rising 77% of the time, the firm’s data showed.

Research from LPL Financial showed that the second half of December tends to outshine the first part of the month. The S&P 500 has gained an average of 1.4% in the second half of December in so-called Santa Claus rallies, compared with a 0.1% gain in the first half, according to LPL’s analysis of market moves going back to 1950.

Stocks that have not performed well, however, may face additional pressure in December from tax loss selling, as investors get rid of losers to lock in write-offs before year-end. If history is any guide, some of those shares may rebound later in the month and into January as investors return to undervalued names, analysts said.

Since 1986, stocks that were down 10% or more between January and the end of October have beaten the S&P 500 by an average of 1.9% over the next three months, according to BofA Global Research. PayPal Holdings, CVS Health, and Kraft Heinz Co are among the stocks the bank recommends buying for a tax-related bounce, BofA noted in a late October report.

“The market advance has been extraordinarily narrow this year, and there’s reason to believe that some sectors and stocks will really take it on the chin until they get some relief in January,” said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

Despite the market’s hefty year-to-date rise, investment portfolios are likely to have plenty of underperforming stocks. Nearly 72% of the S&P 500’s gain has been driven by a cluster of megacap stocks such as Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia, which have an outsized weighting in the index, data from S&P Dow Jones Indices showed.

Many other names have languished: The equal-weighted S&P 500, whose performance is not skewed by big tech and growth stocks, is up around 6% in 2023.

Some worry that investor over-exuberance may have already set in after November’s big rally, which spurred huge moves in some of the market’s more speculative names.

Streaming service company Roku soared 75% in November, for instance, while cryptocurrency firm Coinbase Global climbed 62% and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund was up 31%, its best performance of any month in the last five years.

Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Global Research, said in a Friday note that the firm’s contrarian Bull & Bear indicator – which assesses factors such as hedge fund positioning, equity flows and bond flows – had moved out of the “buy” zone for the first time since mid-October.

“If you caught it, no need to chase it,” he wrote of the rally.

(Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Richard Chang)

US yields plunge after Powell comments, data

NEW YORK, Dec 1 – US Treasury yields dropped on Friday after comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell fanned cautious optimism that the central bank was done hiking rates, while more weak data on the manufacturing sector underscored that the surprisingly robust economy remains fragile.

Yields extended declines after Powell said the risks of the Fed moving too far with rate hikes and slowing the economy more than necessary have become “more balanced” with those of not moving rapidly enough to combat high inflation.

“The market will read what it wants into these things, but when you look at Powell’s comments, he was balanced. The fact that he’s balanced as opposed to raising rates, you can say, ‘oh, these guys want to cut rates’ and I think they do want to cut rates,” said Steven Ricchiuto, US chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA in New York.

“I just don’t think the data is going to allow them.”

The market is pricing in a 66% chance of a rate cut in March, according to CME’s FedwatchTool, up from about 43% on Thursday.

Earlier in the session, yields had dipped after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 46.7 last month, below the 47.6 estimate of economists polled by Reuters. It was the 13th straight month the PMI stayed below 50, which indicates contraction.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note fell 13 basis points (bps) to 4.261% and is down more than 27 bps for the week. The yield touched 4.211%, its lowest since Sept. 8.

Yields have fallen sharply in recent weeks, with the 10-year US Treasury yield closing out November on Thursday with its biggest monthly drop since August 2011. Softening economic data have heightened expectations the Fed is done with hiking rates and investors are attempting to forecast the timing of the central bank’s first rate cut.

Many Fed officials have refused to rule out the possibility of another hike should economic data change course. Earlier this week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, seen as a hawk, flagged a possible rate cut if inflation continues to decline.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond declined 11 basis points to 4.404%.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year notes, an indicator of economic expectations, was at a negative 34.4 basis points after rising to a negative 33.83, its shallowest inversion since Nov. 8.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 16 basis points to 4.557% after closing out November with its biggest monthly drop since March. The yield declined to 4.540%, its lowest since June 13.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.159% after closing at 2.176% on Thursday.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.227%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.2% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Additional reporting by Herbert Lash; Editing by Richard Chang and Lisa Shumaker)

Bullish investors take heart in Powell’s ‘balanced’ outlook

Dec 1 – Investors seeking justification for breathtaking rallies in stocks and bonds are finding hope in the words of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, even as the central bank insists the fight against inflation has a long way to go.

Signs of easing inflation have ignited bets that the Fed will begin loosening its restrictive monetary policy earlier than expected, driving the S&P 500 to its biggest monthly gain for more than a year in November. Yields on the US benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to prices, saw their steepest decline in more than a decade.

Some investors believe Powell may have signaled an incremental shift to a more dovish outlook on Friday, when he said the risks of moving too far with interest rate hikes have become “more balanced” with those of not moving high enough to control inflation.

The S&P 500 climbed nearly 0.7% and was on pace to finish at its highest closing level of the year after the comments – which were made ahead of a quiet period before the Fed’s Dec. 12-13 monetary policy meeting. Two-year Treasuries, which are sensitive to interest rate expectations, fell nearly 15 basis points to their lowest level since June.

The Fed chair reiterated that the fight against inflation was far from finished and said the central bank was ready to further tighten monetary policy if necessary.

“He provided balanced comments, both dovish and hawkish, and the markets are very much ignoring the hawkish comments and grabbing onto the dovish comments that the Fed is essentially done,” said Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management.

Evidence of slowing inflation has piled up in recent weeks. On Thursday, data showed that the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE price index, eased in October, complementing other reports indicating cooling consumer prices and softer economic activity.

Trader bets on Fed rate cuts starting in the first half of 2024 gained steam this week after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, an influential and usually hawkish policymaker, suggested rate cuts by then could be needed to keep policy from becoming overly restrictive in the face of easing inflation.

Federal funds futures, a widely used security for hedging short-term interest rate risk, imply a Fed funds rate of 4.533% by the end of July, versus 5.121% expected three months ago for that period, according to LSEG data.

Investors see a strong chance of the central bank delivering a rate cut as early as March 2024, LSEG data show.

“Powell is essentially saying that inflation is coming down faster than we expected and now we can just coast and see what happens. That’s the message. And as a market participant I will always take that message as something that’s dovish,” said Ed Al-Hussainy, a senior analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, who is positioning for rates to fall further.

Of course, the market has misread the Fed and economic conditions several times in recent years and may be doing so again. In late 2022, for example, many expected a recession would hit this year, forcing the Fed to loosen monetary policy. The economy proved resilient while monetary policy stayed tight.

“Clearly they are in a no man’s land here and the market hears what it wants to hear,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Investment Management, who runs a tactical trend-following portfolio. “Powell is trying to take a very measured approach to guidance and not giving anyone too much on one side or the other.”

(Reporting by David Randall and Lewis Krauskopf; Additional reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Writing by Ira Iosebashvili; Editing by Daniel Wallis)

Gold hits record high on bets for March start to Fed rate cuts

Dec 1 – Gold prices rallied to an all-time high on Friday after remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell increased traders’ confidence the US central bank had completed its monetary policy tightening and could cut rates starting March.

Spot gold climbed 1.6% to USD 2,069.10 per ounce by 3:30 p.m. ET (2030 GMT). Prices were 3.4% higher so far this week, and earlier rose to USD 2,075.09 per ounce to beat the previous all-time high of USD 2,072.49 scaled in 2020.

US gold futures also settled 1.6% higher at a record peak of USD 2,089.7.

Powell said “the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced,” but the Fed is not thinking about lowering rates right now.

“Gold bulls are focusing on Powell’s comment that rate is well into restrictive territory which plays into the narrative that cuts will come sooner, pointedly ignoring his warning that it was premature to speculate on easing rates,” Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

Markets added to bets of a March start to rate cuts and an interest rate of under 4% by the end of next year.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield gold.

But, “prices may have entered overbought territory and gold has been known to price in monetary policy expectations prematurely over the past two years,” Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper said in a note.

Boosting bullion’s appeal, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped to a 12-week low and the dollar ticked 0.3% lower.

“Gold has had a Santa Claus rally and I expect that to continue until the end of this year. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that gold re-tests record highs,” said Everett Millman, chief market analyst at Gainesville Coins.

Silver gained 0.9% to a more than six-month high at USD 25.47 per ounce, set for a third consecutive weekly rise.

Platinum rose 0.6% to USD 932.44 and palladium lost 0.3% to USD 1,004.92.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee, Ashitha Shivaprasad and Deep Vakil in Bengaluru; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle, Barbara Lewis, and Shailesh Kuber)

Oil prices fall more than 2% as investors skeptical of OPEC+ cuts

NEW YORK, Dec 1 – Oil prices slumped more than 2% on Friday on investor skepticism about the depth of OPEC+ supply cuts and concern about sluggish global manufacturing activity.

Brent crude futures for February settled down USD 1.98, or 2.45%, at USD 78.88 a barrel.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) dropped USD 1.89, or 2.49%, to USD 74.07 a barrel.

For the week, Brent posted a decline of about 2.1%, while WTI lost more than 1.9%.

OPEC+ producers agreed on Thursday to remove around 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil from the global market in the first quarter of next year, with the total including a rollover of Saudi Arabia and Russia’s 1.3 million bpd of current voluntary cuts.

Traders viewed the announcement with some skepticism, OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said.

“(It) seems traders either aren’t buying that members will be compliant or don’t view it as being sufficient,” Erlam added.

OPEC+, which pumps more than 40% of the world’s oil, is reducing output after prices fell from about USD 98 a barrel in late September on concerns about the impact of sluggish economic growth on fuel demand.

The cuts “will not stop a billowing cloud of confusion that is going to take the oil market weeks and months to figure out, and only if the self-reporting data is indeed reliable,” PVM analyst John Evans said.

The cuts agreed by OPEC+ on Thursday are voluntary, so there was no collective revision of OPEC+ production targets. The voluntary nature of the cuts led to some skepticism about whether or not producers would fully implement them, and also from what basis the cuts would be measured.

In the United States, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that the central bank would move “carefully” on interest rates as risks of “under- and over-tightening are becoming balanced.”

US manufacturing remained subdued and factory employment fell in November, according to a survey.

Investors are keeping a watchful eye on global manufacturing activity, which remained weak during the month on poor demand, surveys showed.

On Friday, talks to extend a week-long truce between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas collapsed, prompting a resumption of the war in Gaza. The conflict had initially supported oil prices on concern that any escalation that involved surrounding oil producers could disrupt supply. So far, the conflict has had no significant impact on global oil flows.

On the supply side, the United States on Friday imposed additional sanctions related to the price cap on Russian oil, targeting three entities and three oil tankers.

US oil rigs rose five to 505 this week, their highest since September, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday.

Meanwhile, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Friday called for a future with no fossil fuel burning at all while speaking at the two-week COP28 summit in the UAE.

Money managers cut their net long US crude futures and options positions in the week to Nov. 28 by 7,663 contracts to 62,070, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao, Robert Harvey, Laura Sanicola, and Sudarshan Varadhan;
Editing by Marguerita Choy, Jane Merriman, Will Dunham, Emelia Sithole-Matarise, and Daniel Wallis)

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