Global rally shudders to halt

Dec 21 – Investors in Asia go into Thursday’s trading session on the defensive, after a late slide on Wall Street took the shine off figures that earlier showed global inflationary pressures cooling further.

The regional economic and policy highlights on Thursday are the Indonesian central bank’s latest policy decision, consumer price inflation and trade figures from Hong Kong, and producer price inflation data from South Korea.

A far steeper decline in UK inflation last month than anticipated hammered gilt yields on Wednesday and strengthened the growing view that major central banks have substantial room to cut interest rates next year.

With figures also showing a jump in US consumer confidence to a five-month high, the ‘Goldilocks’ and ‘soft landing’ juiced the global risk rally until the last hour of trading on Wall Street triggered a sharp reversal.

World stocks, which were up 10 days in a row and on course for their longest winning streak in nearly three years, slumped 0.7% and chalked up their biggest decline in two months. The three main US indexes, at or near record highs this week, also registered their biggest daily losses since October.

If that negativity spills over into Asia into Thursday, the long-standing underperformance of emerging market and Asian markets – and Chinese markets, in particular – is likely to continue.

The Shanghai blue chip CSI 300 index fell more than 1% on Wednesday. It is on course for a sixth straight weekly loss, which would be its worst weekly run in 12 years, and a record fifth consecutive monthly loss.

The big picture remains challenging – deflation is taking hold, the huge property sector is imploding and the growth outlook is questionable at best.

It’s a different story in Hong Kong, at least as far as inflation is concerned. Consumer price inflation has been rising lately, and reached a year-high of 2.7% in October while the month-on-month rate rose to a two-year high of 1.0%.

Economists in a Reuters poll expect figures on Thursday to show that annual inflation held steady at 2.7% in November.

Bank Indonesia, meanwhile, is expected to keep its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate steady at 6.00% for a second month – inflation has been within its 2% to 4% target range for six months and the rupiah has gained nearly 2% since a surprise rate hike in October, easing pressure on imported prices.

Economists polled expect the first rate cut to be in the third quarter of 2024. But with inflation well-behaved, the rupiah ticking up, and the Fed forecast to start cutting US rates pretty soon, BI may move well before that.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

– Indonesia central bank policy decision

– Hong Kong consumer price inflation (November)

– South Korea producer price inflation (November)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

Gold little changed with focus squarely on US economic data

Dec 20 – Gold prices were largely unchanged on Wednesday, while traders braced for a slew of economic data due later in the week that could offer fresh clues on the US central bank’s monetary policy path.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to USD 2,035.97 per ounce, as of 2:27 p.m. ET (1927 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.2% lower at USD 2047.7.

The dollar index ticked higher, making bullion less attractive to overseas buyers.

Gold prices should stabilize above USD 2,000 and mostly trade higher considering geopolitical risks in the market, including US elections next year, which could prompt money managers to ramp up gold in their portfolio, said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

At present, “we’re seeing a muted session. As we move into the week, the volume will start to dissipate.”

Last week, the US Federal Reserve indicated its monetary tightening phase was at an end and that rate cuts are on the cards for 2024.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday said there is no current “urgency” to reduce US interest rates given the strength of the economy.

Lower US interest rates boost the appeal of gold. Markets are pricing in an about 79% chance of a rate cut in March, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

In the near term, gold could trade between USD 1,950 and USD 2,150, with volatility fuelled by macroeconomic data and the correlated expectations about forthcoming US rate cuts and unexpected geopolitical risks, Intesa Sanpaolo said in a note.

“Given our expected macroeconomic outlook, and the significant geopolitical and recessionary risks weighing on the global economy, we think that 2024 could be a positive year for gold.”

Investors waited for a bunch of US economic data this week, including the November core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index report, the Federal Reserve’s favoured measure of underlying inflation due on Friday.

Silver climbed 1.2% to USD 24.32 per ounce, while platinum added 1.3% to USD 966.35. Palladium fell 0.7% to USD 1,214.72.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Daksh Grover; Editing by Shweta Agarwal and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

Oil settles up on Red Sea tensions; gains capped by US stock builds

Dec 20 – Oil prices settled slightly higher after a choppy trading session on Wednesday as investors worried about global trade disruption and tensions in the Middle East following attacks on ships by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi forces in the Red Sea.

Limiting price gains were a surprise US crude inventory build, larger-than-expected fuel stocks gains and record domestic oil production.

Brent crude futures settled up 47 cents, or 0.6%, at USD 79.70 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 28 cents, or 0.4%, to USD 74.22 a barrel.

Both benchmarks briefly turned negative following the EIA report and the possibility of a new
ceasefire after the leader of Hamas paid his first visit to Egypt for more than a month.

Early in the session, the benchmarks rose by more than USD 1 as major maritime carriers chose to steer clear of the Red Sea route, with longer voyages increasing transport and insurance costs.

On Wednesday, Greece advised commercial vessels sailing in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden to avoid Yemeni waters. Greek ship owners control about 20% of the world’s commercial vessels in terms of carrying capacity.

“The possibility of a significant price downturn would appear likely on first suggestion of stabilization of cargo transits through the Red Sea corridor,” said John Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates LLC in Galena, Illinois.

On Tuesday, Washington launched a task force to safeguard commerce in the region. Sources including shipping and maritime security officials told Reuters that few practical details are known about the initiative or whether it will directly engage in the event of further armed attacks.

The Houthis vowed to defy the US-led naval mission and to keep targeting Red Sea shipping in support of Palestinian enclave Gaza’s ruling Hamas movement.

About 12% of world shipping traffic passes up the Red Sea and through the Suez Canal. Although oil supply has been realigned, no shortages have yet emerged, analysts said.

“As long as production is not threatened, the market will eventually adjust to changing supply routes,” said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.

ECONOMIC GREEN SHOOTS

Recent data suggests central bank action to quell sticky inflation in Europe had made a meaningful difference.

German producer prices fell more than expected in November, data showed on Wednesday, a day after it was confirmed that euro zone inflation slowed sharply to 2.4% last month on a year-on-year basis.

A European Central Bank policymaker cautioned it was “rather unlikely” interest rates would be cut during the first six months of next year.

In Britain, inflation plunged in November to its lowest rate in more than two years, strengthening the case for rate cuts.

On Tuesday, the US Energy Department said the government bought 2.1 million barrels of crude for delivery in February, as the US continues to replenish reserves.

(Additional reporting by Natalie Grover, Florence Tan, and Jeslyn Lerh; editing by Paul Simao, Nick Zieminski, and David Gregorio)

China to put dampener on market party

Dec 20 – A ‘Santa rally’ is in full swing across global stocks, with the Bank of Japan’s dovish tilt on Tuesday adding fuel to a fire already burning nicely after the Federal Reserve indicated last week that US interest rates could be cut early next year.

Even Chinese stocks got in on the act, snapping a four-day losing streak, and Beijing is where investor attention in Asia turns on Wednesday as the People’s Bank of China prepares to deliver its latest policy decision.

If anything, however, the PBOC will spoil the party. It is widely expected to leave its one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.45% and 4.20%, respectively, according to all 28 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll.

Beijing is under increasing pressure to significantly ease monetary or fiscal policy – or both – to heal the sickly property sector, kick-start growth and pull the economy out of deflation.

But that probably won’t come until some time next year, and although investors are fully anticipating no action on Wednesday, it will be another reminder of China’s policy predicament, economic travails, and market vulnerabilities.

Japanese markets, on the other hand, got a shot in the arm after the BOJ doused speculation that its landmark move away from negative interest rates was imminent.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index jumped 1.4% and is now within 2% of November’s 33-year high; the yield on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds fell more than six basis points, one of its steepest daily declines this year; and the yen fell for a third day against the dollar, this time by 0.75%.

The yen’s losses against the euro were particularly steep, while the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars were among the biggest gainers against the US dollar on Tuesday, both sitting around their highest in nearly five months.

The BOJ’s relatively dovish tilt boosted the positive risk appetite already coursing through global markets. Despite some push back from Fed officials, investors are still betting on as much as 150 basis points of rate cuts next year.

After the Dow Jones Industrials index ventured into uncharted territory last week, the tech-heavy Nasdaq followed suit on Tuesday, rising to a new peak just shy of 15,000 points, while the S&P 500 got within 1% of a new record high also.

The US ‘FAANG’ index of mega tech stocks rose for a ninth straight day on Tuesday and, remarkably, has almost doubled in value this year. Perhaps this will give the Hang Seng tech index a much-needed boost on Wednesday.

But while the MSCI World index on Tuesday hit its highest since April last year too, the MSCI Asia index continued to underperform.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– China central bank policy decision

– Japan trade (November)

– Australia leading indicators (November)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

Dollar rises vs yen as BOJ sticks with ultra-loose policy

NEW YORK, Dec 19 – The US dollar rose against the yen on Tuesday after the Bank of Japan gave no sign that its ultra-loose monetary policy was set to end, but expectations for interest rate cuts next year continued to weigh against the greenback more broadly.

The Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose policy settings as expected, as it opted to await more evidence on whether wages and prices would rise enough to justify a shift away from massive monetary stimulus.

The central bank also made no change to its dovish policy guidance, dashing hopes among some traders it would tweak the language to signal a near-term end to negative interest rates.

“Traders are pulling back on a move into positive rate territory from the Bank of Japan into early new year,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.

“There was no hint in the press conference or in the statement that policymakers are ready to move rates up dramatically,” Schamotta said.

The dollar was 0.79% higher against the yen at 143.925 yen. Through Monday, the dollar had retreated about 3.7% against the yen this month, hurt by broad dollar weakness and also as traders stepped up yen-buying on speculation of a BOJ policy shift.

Meanwhile, the dollar continued to struggle against most majors as traders sold the US currency on expectations that the Federal Reserve is about to start cutting rates as early as March.

While Fed officials have pushed back against market expectations of how soon the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could cut rates, those comments have done little to sway market pricing and stem the greenback’s decline.

“We’re going to maybe see a little bit of a rocky start to the year where people are going to try to sell dollars just on Fed expectations and as the Bank of England and ECB remain somewhat in the higher-for-longer camp, and EM assets continue to rally,” Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York.

But the relative strength of the US economy should insulate the dollar from further pronounced weakness, he said.

“In the US, maybe we slow a bit, but we don’t go into recession. That’s actually still pretty dollar positive,” Bechtel said.

The dollar index =USD, which measures the currency’s strength against a basket of six rivals, was 0.30% lower at 102.18. The index has dipped 1.5% over the last week.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on Monday said the Fed was not pre-committing to cutting rates soon or swiftly, and the jump in market expectations that it will do so was at odds with how the US central bank functions.

A reading on the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index – the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation – is due this week, and may provide clarity on whether inflation has slowed enough for the Fed to begin easing policy next year.

The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars sat around their highest in nearly five months, further beneficiaries of the softening dollar.

The Aussie was 0.78% higher at USD 0.6757, its highest since late July. Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s December policy meeting showed on Tuesday that the bank considered hiking rates, but decided there were enough encouraging signs on inflation to pause for more data. The kiwi rose 0.85% to 0.62645.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to a four-and-a-half-month high against its US counterpart as investors reduced bets on an early start to Bank of Canada interest rate cuts after domestic data showed inflation holding steady in November.

The pound rose 0.56%, helped by the dollar’s broad weakness and as investors increasingly talked up sterling as a hot prospect for next year.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin was about flat on the day at USD 42,365.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore and Alun John in London, additional reporting by Summer Zhen in Hong Kong; Editing by Ed Osmond and Nick Zieminski)

Gold gains as dollar, yields ease; traders eye US economic data

Dec 19 – Gold prices firmed on Tuesday as the US dollar and Treasury yields slipped while investors strapped in for a bunch of US economic data due this week that could provide more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

Spot gold was up 0.6% at USD 2,038.59 per ounce by 2:23 p.m. ET (1923 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.6% higher at USD 2,052.1.

The gains were helped by a 0.4% decline in the dollar index, while benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields were hovering near their lowest levels since July.

Investors are buying gold as there are fewer incentives for people to get rid of it, with the market betting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before they achieve their 2% inflation target, said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

Lower bond yields and interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed’s monetary policy is likely done with a tight monetary policy, with discussion on cuts to borrowing costs moving “into view.”

However, some Fed officials have pushed back against the surging market expectations of rate cuts.

Markets are pricing in about a 75% chance of a rate cut in March, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Traders are looking towards a slew of US economic data this week, including the November core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index report due on Friday, considered to be the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation.

It’s a question of when the Fed will lower its interest rates, so we see no reason for any significant downward correction of the gold price in the foreseeable future, Commerzbank said in a note.

Swiss gold exports fell in November partly due to a drop in shipments to India, Swiss customs data showed on Tuesday.

Spot silver gained 1.1% to USD 24.03 per ounce, while platinum was up 1.3% at USD 957.08. Palladium climbed 3.2% to USD 1,222.14, rising for the seventh consecutive session.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Daksh Grover; Editing by Shweta Agarwal, Tasim Zahid, and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

Santa puts coal stocks in stockings for last time

NEW YORK, Dec 19 – Stocks of coal companies are finding a reason this season. Investors brave enough to pick up these fossil fuel discards have had an extraordinary run recently, and their ability to generate black ink is impressively bright in the immediate term. Snag is, economics and politics are combining to push coal stocks into Santa’s version of coal.

The US produces about half the coal it did in 2008 and nearly all of that fuel type used domestically is burned in power plants. These are shutting down – about 40% of the nation’s coal capacity has closed since 2011, and 40% of what remained at the start of the year is set to close by 2030, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

Nevertheless, firms like Peabody Energy (BTU), Arch Resources (ARCH), and Consol Energy (CEIX) are doing better than they have in years, thanks to overseas buyers who are scooping up half or more of their supply. China and India now account for around 70% of the world’s consumption, according to the International Energy Agency. These nations’ growing demand offset declines in Europe and the United States, causing global demand to hit a record in 2023.

The summit, however, has been reached. Clean energy is becoming less expensive. Building unsubsidized solar and wind is now often cheaper than running fully depreciated coal plants, and the price of green energy should keep falling. While coal will be slower to phase out in areas like steelmaking, total global demand is set to shrink starting next year, forecasts the IEA, and keep falling, as China’s demand has peaked.

Political agreements, like one signed at the recent COP28 summit, will accelerate the pace. Plus the amount of coal dug up in China, India, and Indonesia, the three biggest producing nations, is growing according to the IEA. That poses perhaps a bigger threat to US exports.

Stockholders in Peabody and Arch have seen their investments more than double over the past two years, and Consol more than quadruple. Still, these firms are all worth only about USD 9 billion in total. While they may throw off cash for some time, prices and profit for commodity producers swing wildly downward if there’s excess production. Coal stocks will leave an ugly smudge on future holiday stockings.

CONTEXT NEWS

Representatives of nearly 200 countries attending the COP28 climate summit in Dubai agreed on Dec. 13 to transition away from all fossil fuels in energy systems and accelerate action this decade to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. It is the first time nations committed to move away from polluting energy sources.

The deal fell short of calling for a complete phasing out of oil, gas, and coal.

The International Energy Agency said on Dec. 15 it predicts global coal demand will rise 1.4% in 2023 to exceed a record 8.5 billion tonnes. The agency estimates demand will fall 2.3% by 2026, the first consumption decline over a forecast period.

(Editing by Lauren Silva Laughlin and Sharon Lam)

Oil rises 1% as Red Sea shipping concerns unnerve traders

BENGALURU, Dec 19 – Oil prices rose more than a dollar a barrel on Tuesday, extending the previous session’s gains after attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militants on ships in the Red Sea disrupted maritime trade and forced more companies to reroute vessels.

Brent crude futures rose USD 1.28, or 1.6%, to settle at USD 79.23 a barrel, the highest since Dec. 1. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January delivery, which expired after settlement on Tuesday, rose 97 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at USD 73.44 a barrel, also the highest in over two weeks.

The US on Tuesday announced the creation of a task force to safeguard Red Sea commerce from attacks by Iran-backed Yemeni militants. The Houthis have vowed to defy the US-led naval mission and keep hitting Israeli targets in the region.

“How long this will go on for is also an unknown, unnerving the market,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior analyst at City Index. “Despite the launch of the operation to ensure safe passage through the Red Sea major shipping firms are still steering clear.”

On Monday, oil prices rose nearly 2% after a Norwegian-owned vessel was attacked and BP (BP) said it had paused all transit through the Red Sea. A number of other shippers have since made similar announcements.

About 12% of world shipping traffic passes up the Red Sea and through the Suez Canal.

“The events in the Red Sea are increasing geopolitical risk,” said Rob Thummel, managing director at Kansas-based energy investment firm Tortoise Capital. “This is causing oil prices to move higher as traders assess the potential for a supply disruption tied to increasing geopolitical risk,” Thummel added.

Though the attacks on shipping have boosted the risk premium, other analysts said impacts to oil supply are currently limited.

“For now the impact is limited as oil keeps flowing, just with longer journeys translating in higher transportation costs,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Goldman Sachs analysts also said the disruption was unlikely to have a large effect on crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices because opportunities to reroute vessels suggest production should not be directly affected.

Also in focus this week is the latest snapshot of US supplies. The first of the week’s two supply reports from the American Petroleum Institute shows an increase in US crude oil and fuel inventories, sources said.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect to see a decline in US crude oil inventories last week.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish official US stocks data at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan; additional reporting by Alex Lawler, Andrew Hayley, and Stephanie Kelly; editing by David Gregorio, Nick Zieminski, and Diane Craft)

Bank of Japan countdown almost over

Dec 19 – The Bank of Japan’s policy decision and subsequent remarks from Governor Kazuo Ueda will dominate Asian markets on Tuesday and maybe give investors an insight into how wide the divergence will be between the BOJ and other major central banks next year.

While markets reckon the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England are at the end of their hiking cycles and pivoting toward interest rate cuts next year, the BOJ is only just emerging from years of negative rates and ultra-loose policy.

While no one is expecting the BOJ to raise rates on Tuesday, the landmark move could come sooner than many expect – the BOJ has already surprised markets with tweaks to its ‘yield curve control’ policy and intervened in the FX market buying yen, so who’s to say it won’t raise rates in January?

On Monday Japan’s yen weakened, the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index fell and 10-year Japanese Government Bonds rose, which pushed the yield down around 4 basis points.

The yen has been one of the best-performing G10 currencies this month on growing hawkish speculation around the BOJ, appreciating almost 4% against the dollar since the turn of the month. This follows a 2.5% rise last month too.

Further yen strength will help the BOJ in its fight to get inflation sustainably back toward its 2% target, and households will welcome the downward pressure on import prices, but it will hurt exports, traditionally a major engine of economic growth.

Hedge funds have been net short the yen since March 2021, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, but a shift is underway ahead of that seismic shift on rates from the BOJ, whenever it comes.

The latest CFTC figures show that the funds’ net short position is now the smallest in four months at 81,000 contracts. That’s an aggregate USD 7 billion bet against the yen, down from USD 11 billion only a few weeks ago.

Elsewhere on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia published the minutes of its last policy meeting, when it held rates at a 12-year high of 4.35%.

Asian stocks fell 0.5% on Monday, the steepest decline in two weeks, but that was perhaps to be expected given the 3% surge late last week after the Fed signaled US rate hikes are over and attention is now on when the easing cycle starts.

On the corporate front, Japan’s Nippon Steel (5401.T) on Monday clinched a deal to buy US Steel for USD 14.9 billion in cash, a bet that US Steel will benefit from the spending and tax incentives in President Joe Biden’s infrastructure bill.

While Nippon Steel’s shares are off some 15% from their recent peak, they have rallied around 50% over the past 12 months.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

– Bank of Japan policy decision

– Reserve Bank of Australia minutes

– New Zealand trade (November)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

Gold gains as traders buy on dips, await US inflation data

Dec 18 – Gold gained on Monday as traders purchased bullion on price dips, while their focus shifted to key US inflation data for signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate direction post its recent dovish tilt.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at USD 2,026.59 per ounce, as of 2:15 p.m. ET (1915 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.2% higher at USD 2040.5.

“The market is in a pause mode waiting for the next major fundamental economic data point or news, but it’s a buy-the-dip mentality among gold traders with the bullish technical posture,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

The underlying factors keeping a floor under the gold market are the weaker US dollar, easier monetary policy and some safe-haven demand from heightened tensions in the Middle East, Wyckoff added.

Last week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and indicated the historic tightening of monetary policy was likely over as inflation fell faster than expected.

But Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the US central bank is not pre-commiting to cutting interest rates soon and swiftly.

Traders are pricing in a 69% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Lower bond yields and interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing.

Benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields were hovering near their lowest level since July. US/

Traders now await a slew of US economic data, including the November core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index report on Friday.

Downward trends in US rates are often accompanied by a stronger bullish move of gold and this asymmetric trend might continue and favor gold, especially in the first half of next year and prices could average USD 2,050 an ounce in 2024, Intesa Sanpaolo said in a note.

Spot silver fell 0.3% to USD 23.76 per ounce, while platinum rose 0.7% to USD 946.02. Palladium was up 0.6% to USD 1,180.15, hitting a two-and-a-half-month high.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Daksh Grover, editing by Ed Osmond, Shweta Agarwal, and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

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