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THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
grocery-2-aa
Economic Updates
Inflation Update: Prices rise even slower in May 
June 5, 2025 DOWNLOAD
Buildings in the Makati Central Business District
Economic Updates
Monthly Recap: BSP to outpace the Fed in rate cuts 
May 29, 2025 DOWNLOAD
economy-ss-9
Economic Updates
Quarterly Economic Growth Release: 5.4% Q12025
May 8, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports

Archives: Reuters Articles

Bullish investors take heart in Powell’s ‘balanced’ outlook

Bullish investors take heart in Powell’s ‘balanced’ outlook

Dec 1 – Investors seeking justification for breathtaking rallies in stocks and bonds are finding hope in the words of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, even as the central bank insists the fight against inflation has a long way to go.

Signs of easing inflation have ignited bets that the Fed will begin loosening its restrictive monetary policy earlier than expected, driving the S&P 500 to its biggest monthly gain for more than a year in November. Yields on the US benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to prices, saw their steepest decline in more than a decade.

Some investors believe Powell may have signaled an incremental shift to a more dovish outlook on Friday, when he said the risks of moving too far with interest rate hikes have become “more balanced” with those of not moving high enough to control inflation.

The S&P 500 climbed nearly 0.7% and was on pace to finish at its highest closing level of the year after the comments – which were made ahead of a quiet period before the Fed’s Dec. 12-13 monetary policy meeting. Two-year Treasuries, which are sensitive to interest rate expectations, fell nearly 15 basis points to their lowest level since June.

The Fed chair reiterated that the fight against inflation was far from finished and said the central bank was ready to further tighten monetary policy if necessary.

“He provided balanced comments, both dovish and hawkish, and the markets are very much ignoring the hawkish comments and grabbing onto the dovish comments that the Fed is essentially done,” said Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management.

Evidence of slowing inflation has piled up in recent weeks. On Thursday, data showed that the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE price index, eased in October, complementing other reports indicating cooling consumer prices and softer economic activity.

Trader bets on Fed rate cuts starting in the first half of 2024 gained steam this week after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, an influential and usually hawkish policymaker, suggested rate cuts by then could be needed to keep policy from becoming overly restrictive in the face of easing inflation.

Federal funds futures, a widely used security for hedging short-term interest rate risk, imply a Fed funds rate of 4.533% by the end of July, versus 5.121% expected three months ago for that period, according to LSEG data.

Investors see a strong chance of the central bank delivering a rate cut as early as March 2024, LSEG data show.

“Powell is essentially saying that inflation is coming down faster than we expected and now we can just coast and see what happens. That’s the message. And as a market participant I will always take that message as something that’s dovish,” said Ed Al-Hussainy, a senior analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, who is positioning for rates to fall further.

Of course, the market has misread the Fed and economic conditions several times in recent years and may be doing so again. In late 2022, for example, many expected a recession would hit this year, forcing the Fed to loosen monetary policy. The economy proved resilient while monetary policy stayed tight.

“Clearly they are in a no man’s land here and the market hears what it wants to hear,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Investment Management, who runs a tactical trend-following portfolio. “Powell is trying to take a very measured approach to guidance and not giving anyone too much on one side or the other.”

(Reporting by David Randall and Lewis Krauskopf; Additional reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Writing by Ira Iosebashvili; Editing by Daniel Wallis)

 

Gold hits record high on bets for March start to Fed rate cuts

Gold hits record high on bets for March start to Fed rate cuts

Dec 1 – Gold prices rallied to an all-time high on Friday after remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell increased traders’ confidence the US central bank had completed its monetary policy tightening and could cut rates starting March.

Spot gold climbed 1.6% to USD 2,069.10 per ounce by 3:30 p.m. ET (2030 GMT). Prices were 3.4% higher so far this week, and earlier rose to USD 2,075.09 per ounce to beat the previous all-time high of USD 2,072.49 scaled in 2020.

US gold futures also settled 1.6% higher at a record peak of USD 2,089.7.

Powell said “the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced,” but the Fed is not thinking about lowering rates right now.

“Gold bulls are focusing on Powell’s comment that rate is well into restrictive territory which plays into the narrative that cuts will come sooner, pointedly ignoring his warning that it was premature to speculate on easing rates,” Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

Markets added to bets of a March start to rate cuts and an interest rate of under 4% by the end of next year.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield gold.

But, “prices may have entered overbought territory and gold has been known to price in monetary policy expectations prematurely over the past two years,” Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper said in a note.

Boosting bullion’s appeal, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped to a 12-week low and the dollar ticked 0.3% lower.

“Gold has had a Santa Claus rally and I expect that to continue until the end of this year. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that gold re-tests record highs,” said Everett Millman, chief market analyst at Gainesville Coins.

Silver gained 0.9% to a more than six-month high at USD 25.47 per ounce, set for a third consecutive weekly rise.

Platinum rose 0.6% to USD 932.44 and palladium lost 0.3% to USD 1,004.92.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee, Ashitha Shivaprasad and Deep Vakil in Bengaluru; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle, Barbara Lewis, and Shailesh Kuber)

 

Oil prices fall more than 2% as investors skeptical of OPEC+ cuts

Oil prices fall more than 2% as investors skeptical of OPEC+ cuts

NEW YORK, Dec 1 – Oil prices slumped more than 2% on Friday on investor skepticism about the depth of OPEC+ supply cuts and concern about sluggish global manufacturing activity.

Brent crude futures for February settled down USD 1.98, or 2.45%, at USD 78.88 a barrel.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) dropped USD 1.89, or 2.49%, to USD 74.07 a barrel.

For the week, Brent posted a decline of about 2.1%, while WTI lost more than 1.9%.

OPEC+ producers agreed on Thursday to remove around 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil from the global market in the first quarter of next year, with the total including a rollover of Saudi Arabia and Russia’s 1.3 million bpd of current voluntary cuts.

Traders viewed the announcement with some skepticism, OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said.

“(It) seems traders either aren’t buying that members will be compliant or don’t view it as being sufficient,” Erlam added.

OPEC+, which pumps more than 40% of the world’s oil, is reducing output after prices fell from about USD 98 a barrel in late September on concerns about the impact of sluggish economic growth on fuel demand.

The cuts “will not stop a billowing cloud of confusion that is going to take the oil market weeks and months to figure out, and only if the self-reporting data is indeed reliable,” PVM analyst John Evans said.

The cuts agreed by OPEC+ on Thursday are voluntary, so there was no collective revision of OPEC+ production targets. The voluntary nature of the cuts led to some skepticism about whether or not producers would fully implement them, and also from what basis the cuts would be measured.

In the United States, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that the central bank would move “carefully” on interest rates as risks of “under- and over-tightening are becoming balanced.”

US manufacturing remained subdued and factory employment fell in November, according to a survey.

Investors are keeping a watchful eye on global manufacturing activity, which remained weak during the month on poor demand, surveys showed.

On Friday, talks to extend a week-long truce between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas collapsed, prompting a resumption of the war in Gaza. The conflict had initially supported oil prices on concern that any escalation that involved surrounding oil producers could disrupt supply. So far, the conflict has had no significant impact on global oil flows.

On the supply side, the United States on Friday imposed additional sanctions related to the price cap on Russian oil, targeting three entities and three oil tankers.

US oil rigs rose five to 505 this week, their highest since September, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday.

Meanwhile, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Friday called for a future with no fossil fuel burning at all while speaking at the two-week COP28 summit in the UAE.

Money managers cut their net long US crude futures and options positions in the week to Nov. 28 by 7,663 contracts to 62,070, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao, Robert Harvey, Laura Sanicola, and Sudarshan Varadhan;
Editing by Marguerita Choy, Jane Merriman, Will Dunham, Emelia Sithole-Matarise, and Daniel Wallis)

 

December cheer, China fear

December cheer, China fear

Dec 1 – Asian markets round out the week on Friday in reasonably good spirits, with a deluge of purchasing managers index data from across the continent and a sprinkling of key indicators from Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia the most likely market-moving catalysts.

Friday is also the first trading day of December, so perhaps an opportunity to get the last month of the year off to a positive start.

The Dow Jones on Thursday posted its highest close in nearly two years, and if broader market momentum from November spills over, that is a likely scenario – for some Asian stock markets, November was the best month in a long time.

On the other hand, Thursday’s month-end reversal in the dollar and bonds – the dollar and Treasury yields rose sharply – will sound a loud note of caution.

Unemployment data from Japan, trade data from South Korea, and the latest readout on inflation from Indonesia are among the highlights on the Asian economic calendar, along with a raft of purchasing managers index reports from across the region.

They include Australia, South Korea, and India, as well as China’s ‘unofficial’ PMI. The ‘official’ PMI report from the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that manufacturing activity in China shrank for a second month in November, and at a faster rate than had been expected.

A similar reading on Friday will only enhance the already growing calls for more stimulus.

China’s leading index of blue chip stocks fell 2% in November, its fourth monthly decline in a row. It is down almost 10% year-to-date, underperforming most of its regional and global peers.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan and emerging market indexes both snapped three-month losing streaks in November, rising 7% or more for their best month since January, while Japan’s Nikkei gained 8.5% for its best month in three years.

The general gloom surrounding China’s economy and financial markets shows little sign of lifting, despite some sporadic positive surprises recently like the strong third quarter GDP growth figures.

A survey by central banking think tank OMFIF of 22 public pension and sovereign wealth funds managing USD 4.3 trillion in assets, showed that none reported a positive outlook for China’s economy.

They cited the regulatory environment and geopolitics as the primary factors dissuading them from investing. Foreigners already appear to be voting with their feet – China just recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in foreign direct investment.

As more aggressive Fed rate cut expectations chip away at the US dollar, investors are turning more bullish on Asian currencies, a Reuters poll found. Perhaps unsurprisingly, one of the few exceptions is the Chinese yuan.

Still, the yuan is trading around its strongest level against the dollar since June and just clocked its biggest monthly gain in a year, rising around 2.5% in November.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

– PMIs for Australia, South Korea, India, China

– Japan unemployment (October)

– Indonesia inflation (October)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

 

US yields higher after data; 10-year poised for biggest monthly drop since 2011

US yields higher after data; 10-year poised for biggest monthly drop since 2011

NEW YORK, Nov 30 – US Treasury yields climbed on Thursday, even after economic data provided more evidence that the Federal Reserve could end hiking interest rates, as a sharp drop in yields in recent weeks put the benchmark 10-year US Treasury on pace for its biggest monthly drop since August 2011.

Data showed US consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years. On the jobs front, initial jobless claims rose from the prior week to indicate a softening of the labor market.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose 7 basis points (bps) to 4.34%. For the month, the 10-year yield was down 52.2 bps, on track for its biggest monthly fall since August 2011.

“Way overdone, especially rate cuts as soon as May priced in now, so just giving some of that back, but yields are still lower on the month, it’s just a marginal giveback on the day,” said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income at Action Economics in San Francisco.

“The data (Thursday) morning was quite bond-friendly so I was at first a little bit surprised to see rates go up instead of further down, but, again, come a long way and they’re at lows of the of the month basically, if not longer,” Rupert added.

Softening economic data has heightened expectations that the Fed has completed its rate hike cycle while projecting a greater likelihood that the central bank will need to cut rates in the coming months.

Markets are pricing in a greater than 75% chance that the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 bps in May, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, up from about 55% a week ago.

Many Fed officials have refused to rule out the possibility that another hike may be needed should the economic data change course, but yields fell sharply earlier this week after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, seen as a hawkish member of the central bank, flagged the possibility of a rate cut if inflation continues to decline.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 7 basis points to 4.522%.

On Thursday, Fed officials including New York Fed Bank President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated the central bank was likely done with rate hikes, but left open the possibility of further hikes should progress on inflation ebb.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at negative 37.1 basis points after rising to negative 35.5, its shallowest inversion since Nov. 9.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 7 basis points to 4.715%. The yield has tumbled 34.1 bps in November, on pace for its biggest drop since March.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.181% after closing at 2.168% on Wednesday.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.25%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; additional reporting by Stephen Culp; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Will Dunham)

 

Gold heads for second straight monthly rise on Fed pause bets

Gold heads for second straight monthly rise on Fed pause bets

Nov 30 – Gold slipped on Thursday but remained on track for a second straight monthly gain as expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon cut interest rates enhanced the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

Spot gold slipped 0.4% to USD 2,036.47 per ounce by 2:40 p.m. ET (1940 GMT) after hitting a near seven-month peak in the previous session. Prices have gained 2.7% so far this month.

US gold futures settled 0.5% lower at USD 2,057.2.

Contributing to gold’s slight dip, the dollar index rose for the day. But the currency was headed for its worst month in a year, while 10-year Treasury yields hit a two-and-a-half month low.

“Gold might be a little tired here but it’s had a very nice run. The pullback (in prices) should be limited to USD 2,015-USD 2,020 and no concerns will be felt unless we fall back below USD 2000,” Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

Traders have advanced bets for a rate cut from an 80% chance in May to a one-in-two chance in March, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

“We’re expecting gold prices to break into new highs in the first half of 2024 as we approach the Fed pivot and (with) the economy likely to slow,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Traders took stock of data showing US consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest since early 2021. Jobless claims rose slightly.

The focus will be on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.

J.P. Morgan in its 2024 commodities outlook highlighted that across commodities the only structural bullish call they held was on gold and silver.

Silver rose 0.9% to USD 25.22 per ounce and was set for its second straight monthly gain.

Platinum was down 0.3% at USD 929.09. Palladium dipped 1.4% to USD 1,013.15.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru. Editing by Jane Merriman and Arun Koyyur)

 

Appetite for stocks drives VIX options as investors guard portfolios

Appetite for stocks drives VIX options as investors guard portfolios

NEW YORK, Nov 30 – Renewed appetite for stocks is helping to drive investors’ interest in volatility-linked options that could buffer their portfolios against stock swings, putting those contracts on track for record trading volume this year.

The S&P 500 is up 18% so far this year, compared to last year’s 19% decline – a rally turbocharged in recent weeks by expectations the US Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates.

That has come alongside record average trading volume in contracts betting on the Cboe Volatility Index or VIX — known as Wall Street’s fear gauge — as looming economic and geopolitical risks keep investors cautious about a potential return of volatility.

“This indicates people are nervous,” said Mandy Xu, head of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe. “This year, the consensus is that we are at or near the end of the hiking cycle but there is no good consensus view of what is next.”

Markets appear tranquil now, she added, but such an environment is one where a black swan event could make volatility spike with its unpredictability and far-reaching consequences.

VIX options contracts averaged nearly 760,000 daily, surpassing the record set in 2017, according to Cboe Global Markets data as of Nov. 27. That’s a 42% increase from 2022 and up 5% from the previous record, with VIX options-trading in October at a high for the year.

Trading in VIX call options, which would profit if the VIX rises and are typically used for protection, including tail hedges which guard against larger unexpected market losses, have risen 54% this year. Put options on the VIX, which benefit from declining volatility, rose by 24%.

Joe Ferrara, investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, whose strategies seek to capitalize on the difference between implied and realized volatility, said investors see a growing list of potentially volatile events including wars and elections on the horizon. Such investors are “looking at trading VIX options as a way to potentially monetize their thinking”, he said.

The VIX tends to move inversely with the S&P 500, rising when stocks fall.

Currently at 13, the VIX is below its long-term median of 18, meaning investors can buy relatively cheap insurance and position in potentially profitable trades.

“What we’re seeing now is inexpensive given the amount of potential turmoil in the market,” said JJ Kinahan, president of tastytrade, a retail broker.

The rise in VIX options trading is a change from 2022 when investors were reducing equities exposure and hoarding cash, according to CBOE data.

With the VIX averaging 17 this year, VIX options’ trading volume as a share of overall options volume is at 1.76%, the highest since 2020 – a much more volatile year when the VIX averaged 29, according to a Reuters analysis based on Trade Alert data.

Seth Hickle, derivatives portfolio manager at Innovative Portfolios in Indiana, said returns on volatility strategies can be erratic in the short term, but can be consistent over long periods.

“In an average volatility year, I would not be shocked to see volume trends continue to rise in VIX options as more market participants accept and embrace volatility as an alternative asset class and the need to hedge that exposure grows,” said Hickle.

Timing profit-taking on VIX options in an environment where jumps in the volatility index are fleeting can be difficult, said Roni Israelov, chief investment officer at NDVR.

The potential for the index to make huge moves in very short periods also makes it “an attractive instrument” for speculators, said Hickle.

“I think there are speculators out there saying with a 14 handle on the VIX, maybe it’s worth taking that bet and making that trade.”

(Reporting by Laura Matthews in New York; additional reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York; Editing by Megan Davies and Chizu Nomiyama)

 

Oil falls over 2% after OPEC+ cuts fall short of expectations

Oil falls over 2% after OPEC+ cuts fall short of expectations

Nov 30 – Oil prices fell by more than 2% on Thursday after OPEC+ producers agreed to voluntary oil output cuts for the first quarter next year that fell short of market expectations.

Brent crude futures for January settled 27 cents, or 0.3%, lower to expire at USD 82.83 a barrel, and a 5.2% loss for the month. The February contract, which begins trading as the front month on Friday, fell USD 2.00, or 2.4%, to USD 80.86.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down USD 1.90, or 2.4%, to USD 75.96, and down 6.2% in November.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other members of OPEC+, who pump more than 40% of the world’s oil, agreed to voluntary output cuts approaching 2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter of 2024.

At least 1.3 million bpd of those cuts, however, were an extension of voluntary curbs that Saudi Arabia and Russia already had in place. Earlier, delegates had said new additional cuts under discussion were as much as 2 million bpd.

“For now, the outcome does not live up to the expectation… in recent days,” said Callum MacPherson, head of commodities at Investec.

The voluntary nature of the cuts left investors nonplussed.

“From what we’ve seen so far, this looks like a paper cut of around 600-700,000 barrels per day (bpd) vs Q4 2023 planned levels,” said James Davis at FGE.

“It could at best be an actual cut of around 500,000 bpd compared to Q4. This might be just enough to keep the market balanced in Q1, but it will be close.”

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Algeria were among producers who said cuts would be unwound gradually after the first quarter, market conditions permitting.

The meeting, being held on the same day as global leaders gather in Dubai for the U.N. climate conference, was originally scheduled for last week but was deferred because of disagreements over output quotas for African producers.

OPEC+ also invited Brazil, a top 10 oil producer, to become a member of the group. The country’s energy minister said it hoped to join in January.

Meanwhile, crude output in the US, the world’s top producer, continued to grow, rising 1.7% in September to a monthly record of 13.24 million bpd, the Energy Information Administration said.

Crude production in Texas fell by 0.1% to 5.57 million bpd, the lowest since July and the first time production in the state has fallen since April, the EIA said.

(Reporting by Laura Sanicola in Washington; Editing by Simon Webb, Lisa Shumaker and Marguerita Choy)

 

Gold holds ground ahead of US inflation test

Nov 30 – Gold prices consolidated in a tight range on Thursday, hovering close to a near seven-month high, as investors awaited a key inflation print to gauge whether interest rate cuts in the US would come sooner than expected.

Spot gold  was down 0.1% at USD 2,041.76 per ounce by 0543 GMT, after hitting its highest since May 5 on Wednesday, and was poised for its second straight monthly gain. Bullion was trading in a range of about USD 5 on Thursday.

US gold futures for December delivery fell 0.2% to USD 2,042.40 per ounce.

“Prices seem to be taking a slight breather in today’s session, with some wait-and-see,” IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said, ahead of the U.S. personal consumption expenditure data – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – at 1330 GMT.

“Despite the US Q3 GDP posing an upside surprise overnight, the data failed to sway market rate-cut bets, as sentiments continue to take cues from more recent Fed (officials’) comments.”

Federal Reserve officials this week flagged the possibility of a rate cut in the upcoming months and expected growth to slow down and inflation to continue to ease, dragging yields on 10-year Treasury notes to a two-and-a-half month low of 4.2470%. 

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion.

Traders have now advanced their bets for a rate cut by the US central bank from an 80% chance in May to a one-in-two chance in March, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Making gold less expensive for other currency holders, the dollar index drifted near three-month lows, and was set to log its worst monthly performance in a year in November.

Investor focus will also be on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is due to speak on Friday.

Spot silver fell 0.2% to USD 24.95 per ounce. Platinum was down 0.2% at USD 930.24. Palladium fell 0.4% to USD 1,023.42 per ounce.

(Reporting by Harshit Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich, Mrigank Dhaniwala and Sonia Cheema)

Can bumper data, policy day jolt markets?

Can bumper data, policy day jolt markets?

Nov 30 –  If this week has so far been strangely listless for Asian markets, that could be about to change suddenly on Thursday as investors brace for a deluge of top-tier economic data and policy events from across the continent.

Among the highlights, South Korea’s central bank sets interest rates, China releases its official manufacturing and service sector purchasing managers index reports for November, and India announces its third quarter growth figures.

The latest industrial production and retail sales data from both Japan and South Korea are on tap too, all of which could move their respective markets, especially currencies.

All else equal, the risks for Asian markets on Thursday may be tilted to the upside, even though stock markets around the world again struggled on Wednesday.

That’s largely because the ongoing fall in the dollar and US bond yields continues to loosen financial conditions. In theory, this should boost animal spirits and the allure of riskier, higher-yielding assets.

US financial conditions are the loosest since early September and have eased 100 basis points in a month, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank’s global and emerging market indexes ticked up a bit last week, but financial conditions are also looser by around 100 bps from a month ago.

US rates futures markets are now pricing in more than 100 basis points of rate cuts next year starting in May, and the two-year Treasury yield is its lowest since July – it has slumped nearly 40 basis points this week alone.

The dollar on Wednesday hit its lowest since Aug. 10, and most Asian and regional currencies are taking advantage. Two of the best performers are at the polar opposite ends of the ‘carry’ spectrum – the New Zealand dollar and the Japanese yen.

The “kiwi” dollar got an extra boost on Wednesday following the central bank’s ‘hawkish hold’ – policymakers kept the key cash rate at a relatively high 5.50%, but unexpectedly signaled that it could be raised again if inflation doesn’t moderate.

Remarkably, Japanese interest rates are still negative, but maybe not for much longer. Expectations the Bank of Japan will soon end its negative rate policy have pulled the yen up from the depths, and in the process, eased pressure on the central bank to support the currency via direct FX market intervention.

South Korea’s central bank is expected to keep its base rate on hold at 3.50% and leave it there until at least the middle of next year. But as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed on Wednesday, policymakers retain the ability to surprise.

Indian GDP growth, meanwhile, is expected to have slowed to a 6.8% annual rate in the July-September period from 7.8%, while Chinese factor activity likely contracted again in November but at a slower pace.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

– South Korea interest rate decision

– China official PMIs (November)

– India GDP (Q3)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

 

 

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