Gold ticks lower, focus on US inflation print

Gold prices dipped on Monday as profit-taking countered support from safe-haven demand fuelled by geopolitical uncertainty, while focus was also on the US inflation print.

Spot gold fell 0.8% to USD 2,887.67 an ounce at 1740 GMT, after rising 2% in the previous week. US gold futures settled 0.5% lower at USD 2,899.40.

“There is a slight pause in gold prices due to some mild profit-taking and a weaker stock market. However, we might see some safe-haven bids later,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

US stock index futures fell as worries persisted that tit-for-tat tariffs could affect the world’s largest economy.

President Donald Trump declined to predict whether the US could face a recession amid stock market concerns over his tariff actions.

Trump imposed new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada last Tuesday, along with fresh duties on Chinese goods. But two days later, he exempted many imports from Mexico and some from Canada from those tariffs for a month.

“Uncertainty regarding trade wars and global economic recessions are all bullish for gold, record high levels are possible again. Weaker-than-expected data is going to be friendly for gold,” Wyckoff said.

Investors are also watching out for the US Consumer Price Index data due on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index print on Thursday. Traders are currently fully pricing in a US rate cut for June.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday it remains to be seen if the Trump administration’s tariff plans would prove to be inflationary.

Lower rates boost the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

Spot silver fell 1.5% to USD 32.03 an ounce.

“Investment in silver is set for modest improvement… Still, broader economic concerns, particularly related to China’s economy, could dampen investor enthusiasm,” Marex consultant Edward Meir said in a note.

Data showed that China’s imports unexpectedly shrank over the January-February period, while the consumer price index fell at the sharpest pace in 13 months in February.

Platinum fell 0.4% to USD 959.35 and palladium was down 0.9% at USD 941.38.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Ishaan Arora; Editing by Leroy Leo and Shilpi Majumdar)

US recession risk provides tinder for smoldering market volatility: McGeever

ORLANDO, Florida – Financial market volatility has bubbled up to its highest level this year thanks to the chaotic implementation of US President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade agenda. While volatility hasn’t boiled over yet, investors would do well to guard against complacency, because tariff fatigue may push it over the edge.

Implied volatility in the S&P 500 as measured by the VIX index – Wall Street’s so-called fear index – is now the highest since the Fed cut interest rates in December, a decision markets interpreted as a mistake at the time. The VIX has almost doubled in the last month, and on Monday the three-month VIX spiked to its highest since August.

The ‘MOVE’ index of implied volatility in the US Treasury market is also the highest in four months, which is especially notable as it is accompanying a rally in Treasuries prices rather than a bond market selloff and rise in yields.

Volatility is still well below levels associated with past market crises, or even recent episodes like the 2023 US regional banking panic or Japan’s yen carry trade shock last August. Its recent rise certainly hasn’t matched the ongoing surge in policy uncertainty that, by some measures, has never been higher.

Analysts at JP Morgan put this suppression of volatility down to retail investors’ willingness to ‘buy the dip’, which has provided a “persistent backstop” to equities, the rise of ‘passive’ equity investing over ‘active’ management, and the strength of investor and corporate balance sheets.

They note that since the S&P 500’s peak on Feb. 19, US equity ETFs have only recorded one day of net outflows. Cumulative inflows over the period have exceeded USD 30 billion, which has helped limit the broader market decline.

But based on White House statements over the past few days and intensifying market ructions, it’s possible we’re soon going to see a true spike in volatility as investors start to question whether ‘buying the dip’ is such a good idea.

‘DETOX’ PERIOD

Warnings about further market turbulence are now coming from on high. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Friday that the economy is entering a “detox” period, and Trump declined to rule out a recession in an interview with Fox News broadcast on Sunday.

Trump, who tweeted more than 150 times about the rising stock market during his first term, also said on Friday that he’s “not even looking at the market” and that there will likely be some “disruption” as his tariffs are implemented.

He’s not wrong there.

The so-called “Trump bump” is long gone. The S&P 500 is lower than it was before his November 5 election win and is now down nearly 10% from last month’s high and close to official correction territory. The Nasdaq is already in a correction, and has lost 14% in just three weeks after slumping another 4% on Monday.

And even if recession risks flagged by some GDP models prove to be unfounded, the economic outlook is still darkening rapidly. Economists at Morgan Stanley just cut their 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.9%, and economists at Goldman Sachs trimmed theirs to 1.4% from 2.4%.

Economic growth at these below-trend rates is unlikely to sustain current equity valuations, hence the repricing currently underway, and the growing tariff fatigue should only exacerbate this downturn.

Every tariff announcement from Trump moving forward – whether it’s an unveiling, pause or exemption – is likely to be met with a selloff on Wall Street. If he doesn’t pull back, stocks fall on the feared economic impact; if he does pull back, stocks fall on the resulting chaos, confusion, and uncertainty.

“Trump’s leverage credibility with tariffs is quickly eroding,” says Alfonso Peccatiello, chief investment officer at Palinuro Capital.

The volatility dam has, by and large, held. But pressures are building. Investors may need to seek cover.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Bill Berkrot)

Inflows into global money market funds jump as US tariffs deepen economic fears

Global money market funds witnessed a surge in inflows in the week through March 5 as investors sought safety following the United States’ move to escalate its trade war by slapping steep tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, fueling concerns about the potential impact on the global economy.

Investors pumped a massive USD 61.32 billion into global money market funds during the week, following a net USD 39.55 billion worth of purchases in the prior week, data from LSEG Lipper showed.

At the same time, demand for global equity funds dipped to a four-week low as these funds garnered just USD 2.97 billion worth of inflows during the week.

Specifically, US equity funds lost their sheen, witnessing about USD 9.54 billion in net outflows during the week.

On the other hand, European and Asian funds saw robust inflows worth USD 5.87 billion and USD 5.83 billion, respectively, in the same period.

The technology sector experienced a massive USD 2.91 billion worth of outflows, the largest weekly net sales since December 2021.

Industrials and consumer discretionary sectors also witnessed notable outflows worth USD 397 million and USD 367 million, respectively.

Global bond funds were in demand for the tenth week in a row, grossing a net USD 17.02 billion in weekly inflows during the week.

Global short-term bonds drew a net USD 6.4 billion, the biggest amount for a week since January 8. High-yield bond funds also drew a significant USD 3.17 billion in a seventh consecutive week of net purchases.

In the commodities segment, gold and precious metals funds received USD 1.22 billion, marking the fourth consecutive weekly inflow. Energy funds, meanwhile, faced a net USD 114 million worth of sales.

Emerging market data for 29,575 funds revealed equity funds attracted USD 1.52 billion, the third successive weekly inflow. Investors also added a net USD 1.63 billion worth of bond funds, extending net purchases into a ninth consecutive week.

(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas)

US 10-year yields rise as Powell signals patience on rate cuts

NEW YORK – US 10-year Treasury yields rose on Friday, reversing earlier declines after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank could be patient in determining when to cut interest rates.

Powell said the Fed does not need to be in a hurry to cut rates and it remains to be seen whether the Trump administration’s tariff plans will prove to be inflationary, while also listing other factors that could cause price pressures to become more persistent.

“Fewer rate cuts is less of a concern to the markets right now than the economic impact tariffs could potentially impose on the economy,” said Lindsey Bell, chief market strategist at Clearnomics, New York.

“Because of Powell’s assessment of the economy in a good place, investors are finding solace in that.”

Yields had dipped earlier in the session after a reading on the labor market pushed up market expectations for the amount of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.

The Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 jobs last month, just below the 160,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters, after rising by a downwardly revised 125,000 in January. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.1% from 4.0% in January.

Treasury yields have slipped in recent weeks as expectations the Fed will have leeway for more rate cuts than previously anticipated this year have grown due to indications the economy may be slowing.

Uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements and their effect on prices, and the labor market impact from actions by the Department of Government Efficiency under Elon Musk to downsize the federal government, have also fueled economic worries.

“It’s not quite the softening in economic growth that a lot of investors were expecting based on some of the recent data,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities in New York.

“If you look at recent data surprise indicators, they’re really plummeting, which fanned expectations of sharply slower economic growth. The payroll number tells a more moderate story.”

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note rose 3.8 basis points (bps) to 4.32%. For the week, the 10-year yield is up about 9 bps, on track to snap a five-week streak of declines.

The yield on the 30-year bond advanced 3.7 bps to 4.616%.

Traders are pricing in 69 bps of cuts by the US central bank this year, after recently pricing in less than 50 bps of cuts, according to LSEG data.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 31.4 bps.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, gained 4.1 bps to 4.004% but was still on pace for its fourth straight weekly decline.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.562%, unchanged from its close on Thursday.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.337%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak, additional reporting by Sinéad Carew and Karen Brettell; editing by Mark Heinrich and Nia Williams)

Gold heads for weekly gain on safe-haven demand, slow US job growth

Gold prices eased on Friday but were poised for a weekly gain due to safe-haven inflows and a US jobs report revealing lower-than-expected job growth in February, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is on track to cut interest rates this year.

Spot gold fell 0.1% to USD 2,906.04 an ounce as of 01.46 p.m. (1846 GMT). Bullion has gained about 1.7% so far this week, as US President Donald Trump’s ever-shifting tariff policies fanned uncertainty.

US gold futures settled 0.4% lower at USD 2,914.10.

The US dollar index tumbled to a four-month low and is heading for its steepest weekly decline since November 2022, making greenback-priced bullion less expensive for foreign buyers.

“Weaker than expected number is giving gold a slight boost … also a weaker dollar for the week right now is helping,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

A Labor Department report showed the US economy added 151,000 jobs in February, compared with a rise of 160,000 expected by economists polled by Reuters, whereas the unemployment rate stood at 4.1% compared with expectations of 4%.

The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with safe haven interest providing ongoing support, said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier in the day said the Federal Reserve will take a cautious approach to monetary policy easing, adding that the economy currently “continues to be in a good place”.

Despite being an inflation hedge, higher interest rates may dampen non-yielding gold’s appeal.

The market is currently pricing 76 bps of Fed rate cuts by the year-end, starting in June.

China continued its gold purchases for the fourth consecutive month in February, the People’s Bank of China data showed.

Spot silver fell 0.8% to USD 32.35 an ounce and platinum shed 0.6% to USD 960.70, while palladium edged 0.4% up to USD 946.15.

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber and Mohammed Safi Shamsi)

Oil up, but off highs as Trump warns new Russia sanctions possible

HOUSTON – Oil prices gained on Friday but retreated from session highs after US President Donald Trump threatened sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a cease-fire with Ukraine.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 70.36 a barrel, up 90 cents, or 1.3%. West Texas Intermediate futures finished at USD 67.04, up 68 cents, or 1.02%.

Trump said in a post on Truth Social that he was “strongly considering” sanctions on Russian banks and tariffs on Russian products because its armed forces continue attacks in Ukraine.

In early trade, Brent jumped as high as USD 71.40, while WTI hit USD 68.22 after Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters that the OPEC+ producer group will go ahead with its April increase but may then consider other steps, including reducing production.

“If you don’t like the price of oil, wait a minute,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group.

Flynn said oil’s moves on OPEC+ and possible Russia sanctions swept aside other news, including delays in Israel and Hamas seeking a permanent cease-fire in Gaza.

“I think it’s been overwhelmed by Russia news,” Flynn said. “It’s all Russia, Russia, Russia.”

For the week, Brent was down 3.8%, its biggest weekly decline since the week of November 11. WTI finished down 3.9%, its biggest weekly drop since the week of January 21.

Late in Friday’s session, prices stabilized following comments by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital LLC.

Powell said the Federal Reserve Board was watching how new policies from the Trump administration, especially on trade, were affecting the economy.

Kilduff said rapid changes in implementing policy, plus developments that could increase geopolitical risk, were being felt by traders.

“We’re coming to terms with a lot of issues,” Kilduff said. “There is a realization you shouldn’t get too aggressive on either side of the issue.”

Brent prices fell to their lowest since December 2021 on Wednesday after US crude inventories rose and OPEC+ announced its decision to increase output quotas.

OPEC+ had said it intended to proceed with a planned April output increase, adding 138,000 barrels per day to the market.

In other supply news, comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the US aims to reduce Iranian crude exports to a trickle.

Trump’s administration is considering a plan to inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter, continuing efforts to drive down Iranian oil exports to zero.

Global markets have been whipsawed by fluctuating trade policy in the US, the world’s biggest oil consumer.

On Thursday Trump suspended the 25% tariffs he had imposed on most goods from Canada and Mexico until April 2, though steel and aluminum tariffs would still take effect on March 12.

In the US, job growth picked up in February and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%, but growing uncertainty over trade policy and deep federal government spending cuts could erode the labor market’s resilience in the months ahead.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba, Arunima Kumar, Mohi Narayan, and Colleen Howe; additional reporting by Paul Carsten in London; Editing by David Goodman, Kirsten Donovan, and David Gregorio)

Investors seek clarity on tariffs from Trump White House

NEW YORK – Seesaw tariff announcements have unnerved Wall Street, as investors said flip-flopping moves by the Trump administration to roll back levies on trading partners were causing confusion rather than bringing relief.

The S&P 500 is down 4.3% since President Donald Trump took office on January 20, with tariffs being one key concern for investors as many believe they can harm economic growth and be inflationary.

“The administration seems to be trying to play a ping pong game by announcing something and then pulling it back on tariffs, but this time it’s not working,” said Art Hogan, market strategist at B. Riley.

A punishing selloff in stocks on Thursday came as Trump exempted goods from Canada and Mexico for a month from the 25% tariffs that he had imposed earlier this week. The Nasdaq was down 2.6% on the day, showing it has been in a correction since its record high close on December 16.

The latest tariff announcement came as only a partial relief to stocks, as Wall Street traders question how a trade policy based on tariffs will impact the broader economy.

Trump sees tariffs as a way to increase the country’s revenue and boost growth as well as a negotiating tool with other countries, but investors fear the trade policies may weaken consumer confidence and freeze companies’ capital spending.

“The rational economic response to business leaders when there’s such a high degree of uncertainty is to sit on their hands and just defer making decisions,” said Bill Sterling, global strategist at GW&K Investment Management.

The CBOE Volatility Index, a Wall Street fear gauge, closed Thursday at its highest level since December 18, at 24.87.

FOG OF CONFUSION

Trump’s first announcement came in on February 1, when he signed executive orders on imports from Canada, Mexico and China. Since then, the president has retreated on some measures only to later reaffirm them and back off once again.

The lack of clarity is causing investors to unwind equities positions.

“On-again, off-again tariffs may be worse than just getting the tariffs done with. The uncertainty isn’t resolved, it’s just prolonged,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.

Some market participants also fear Trump’s trade policy could have broader impacts on US diplomatic relations, according to Dennis Dick, a trader at Triple D Trading.

China announced on Wednesday more stimulus to counter-attack US tariffs, while European leaders have started to rethink how they fund their own security, with Germany’s likely next government agreeing on the biggest overhaul to fiscal policy since the country’s reunification.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Thursday the country will be in a trade war with the US for the foreseeable future, while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called him “a numbskull.”

Investors have started to question whether Trump will repeat the more stock market-friendly approach from his first administration, the so-called ‘Trump put’.”

“The Trump bump for equities has now turned into the Trump slump,” said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management.

(Reporting by Suzanne McGee, Sinead Carew, Johann M Cherian, Noel Randewich, and Carolina Mandl; editing by Megan Davies and Stephen Coates)

Trump signs order to establish strategic bitcoin reserve

WASHINGTON – US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve, a day before meeting with executives from the cryptocurrency industry at the White House.

The reserve will be capitalized with bitcoin owned by the federal government that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings, the White House crypto czar, billionaire David Sacks, said in a post on social media platform X.

Attendees at Friday’s White House crypto summit expect the event to serve as a stage for Trump to formally announce his plans to build a strategic reserve containing bitcoin and four other cryptocurrencies.

Earlier this week, Trump announced the names of five digital assets he expects to include in this reserve, spiking the market value of each. The five are bitcoin, ether, XRP, Solana, and Cardano, the president said.

It is not clear how such a reserve would work or how it would benefit taxpayers.

Trump’s moves to support the crypto industry, which spent millions backing him and other Republicans in the November elections, have drawn concern from some conservatives and crypto backers over giveaways to an already wealthy community and delegitimizing the digital currency industry.

Proponents argue that a reserve would help taxpayers benefit from crypto’s price growth.

The president’s support for the crypto industry has also sparked conflict-of-interest concerns. Trump’s family has launched cryptocurrency meme coins, and the president also holds a stake in World Liberty Financial, a crypto platform.

His aides have said Trump has handed over control of his business ventures, which are being reviewed by outside ethics lawyers.

(Reporting by Nandita Bose, Jasper Ward, and Ismail Shakil; Editing by Leslie Adler)

Gold poised for weekly gain; US payrolls data on tap

March 7 (Reuters) – Gold prices inched lower on Friday but were on track for a weekly rise as uncertainty around US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans firmed demand for bullion, while investors awaited for US non-farm payrolls data later in the day.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold slipped 0.3% to USD 2,900.48 an ounce as of 0017 GMT. Bullion has gained 1.6% so far this week.

* US gold futures eased 0.6% to USD 2,908.70.

* Trump on Thursday suspended the 25% tariffs he imposed this week on most goods from Canada and Mexico, the latest twist in a fluctuating trade policy that has whipsawed financial markets and fanned worries over inflation and a growth slowdown.

* US jobless claims fell more than expected last week, suggesting that the labor market remained stable in February, though turbulence lies ahead from tariffs on imports and deep government spending cuts.

* Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he leans strongly against a rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting this month, although he reckons cuts later in the year remain on track if inflation pressures continue to abate.

* Bullion is seen as a hedge against political risks and inflation, but higher-for-longer interest rates dampen the non-yielding asset’s appeal.

* Spotlight is on the non-farm payrolls report due at 1330 GMT, which is expected to show a gain of 160,000 jobs for February, a Reuters survey showed.

* Spot silver was little changed at USD 32.60 an ounce and platinum was largely flat at USD 965.23, while palladium fell 0.3% to USD 939.25.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)

0700 Germany Industrial Orders MM, Manufacturing O/P Cur Price SA, Consumer Goods SA Jan

0700 UK Halifax House Prices MM, Halifax House Prices YY Feb

0745 France Reserve Assets Total Feb

1000 EU GDP Revised QQ, GDP Revised YY Q4

1330 US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings YY Feb

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H K)

Emerging Asia faces massive foreign investment outflows on US tariff woes

Emerging Asian equity markets, excluding China, faced massive foreign investment withdrawals in February, driven by concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and its potential to disrupt global economic growth.

Last month, foreign investors withdrew USD 13.72 billion from equity markets in India, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, following net sales of about USD 12.5 billion in January.

The year “has started on a turbulent note, with investor sentiments rattled by concerns over US tariff risks, US growth, and weak market seasonality,” said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at trading platform IG.

This week, US President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 20% from 10%, and announced that further “reciprocal tariffs” and non-tariff measures would take effect on April 2.

The regional sell-off was exacerbated by a downturn in tech stocks, especially those supplying chips to US vendors benefiting from AI advancements, disrupted by China’s economical AI model, DeepSeek.

Last month, Taiwan stocks saw USD 5.05 billion in foreign outflows, marking the largest monthly net sales since November 2024, while South Korea experienced its seventh consecutive month of net outflows, totalling about USD 2.85 billion.

Indian equities saw a net of USD 3.98 billion in selling last month, following outflows of about USD 9.04 billion in January.

Due to the success of DeepSeek AI, foreign investors are re-evaluating the investment allure of equities in India compared with China, with MSCI India underperforming MSCI China by more than 18% in February 2025, said Jason Lui, head of APAC equity and derivative strategy, BNP Paribas.

Offshore China equity funds received about USD 3.07 billion worth of inflows last month, according to data from LSEG Lipper.

Herald van der Linde, head of equity Strategy at HSBC Asia Pacific, said India’s high import tariffs, especially on US products, expose it to potential reciprocal tariffs from the Trump administration.

Equities in Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines also saw outflows of USD 1.11 billion, USD 388 million, USD 198 million, and USD 145 million, respectively, last month.

(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

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