Global equity funds see big inflows on China data and Fed rate cut hopes

March 22 – Global equity funds attracted substantial inflows in the week to March 20, driven by strong industrial and retail data from China and optimism about anticipated rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve later in the year.

According to data from LSEG, investors purchased a net USD 15.7 billion worth of global equity funds during the week after about USD 21.95 billion worth of net accumulation in the previous week.

The MSCI World Stock Index hit a new record of 785.62 following the Fed’s Wednesday announcement, which reinforced its stance on reducing rates three times this year.

Regionally, US funds led with USD 14.07 billion in inflows, the highest since mid-June 2023, while Asian funds added USD 3.29 billion, but European funds saw outflows of USD 1.91 billion.

The tech sector funds gained USD 2.12 billion in inflows during the week, the biggest amount since Feb. 14, whereas the financial sector faced sales of USD 1.02 billion. The metals & mining sector attracted USD 459 million.

Bond funds extended their inflow streak to 13 weeks, attracting USD 4.88 billion, with corporate bonds drawing USD 3.17 billion and government bonds USD 1.3 billion. However, global short-term bonds experienced USD 2.12 billion in net withdrawals.

Money market funds, meanwhile, witnessed outflows of about USD 65.9 billion, their first weekly net selling in four weeks.

Among commodities, precious metal funds broke a seven-week-long selling trend with a massive USD 1.46 billion worth of net buying, the biggest since May 2022. Conversely, energy funds suffered USD 102 million worth of outflows.

Data covering 29,715 emerging market funds showed equity funds lost USD 450 million in outflows, marking their third weekly net selling in a row. Bond funds also witnessed USD 933 million worth of net disposals in contrast to about USD 454 million worth of net purchases, a week ago.

(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)

Oil prices down on Gaza ceasefire talks, flat on the week

NEW YORK, March 22 – Oil prices slipped on Friday and were flat on the week as the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza weakened crude benchmarks, while the war in Europe and shrinking US rig count cushioned the fall.

Brent futures for May delivery settled at USD 85.43, losing 35 cents. US crude settled at USD 80.63 a barrel, falling 44 cents. Both benchmarks logged less than 1% change on the week.

“Everyone is watching for what the weekend will bring with Gaza,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital LLC, adding that successful peace talks would prompt Yemen’s Houthi rebels to allow oil tankers to pass through the Red Sea.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday he believed talks in Qatar could reach a Gaza ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

Blinken met Arab foreign ministers and Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in Cairo as negotiators in Qatar centered on a truce of about six weeks.

Meanwhile, the US dollar was set for a second week of broad gains after the Swiss National Bank’s surprise interest rate cut on Thursday bolstered global risk sentiment.

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, dampening demand.

While a possible ceasefire meant crude might move more freely globally, a lower US oil rig count and the potential for easing US interest rates helped support prices.

“We are still keeping fresh highs on the table given the broad-based expansion in risk appetite that accelerated following the mid-week Fed comments that proved less hawkish than anticipated,” said Houston-based Jim Ritterbusch, of Ritterbusch and Associates.

US equities, which tend to move in correlation with oil prices, hit record highs after the Federal Reserve ended its regular meeting with no change in US rates on Wednesday.

The US oil rig count fell by one to 509 this week, according to Baker Hughes data, indicating lower future supply.

Money managers, meanwhile, upped their net long US crude futures and options positions last week, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said, with combined futures and options positions in New York and London rising by 57,394 contracts to 202,624.

The conflict in Eastern Europe also kept oil prices from moving lower. Russia launched the largest missile and drone attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure of the war to date on Friday, hitting the country’s largest dam and causing blackouts in several regions, Kyiv said.

However, chatter has emerged within the market that Russia would further discount its barrels in light of the escalation, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. A steeper discount could make Russian crude more attractive to international buyers.

(Reporting by Laila Kearney in New York, Natalie Grover and Florence Tan in Singapore; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle, Marguerita Choy, Nia Williams, and David Gregorio)

US yields climb after strong economic data

March 21 – US Treasury yields rose on Thursday after the release of strong economic data, including a report showing a drop in new claims for unemployment benefits, added to questions about the timing of expected interest rate cuts this year.

Yields on benchmark 10-year notes ticked up slightly to 4.272%. They closed at 4.271% on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve issued a policy statement and new economic projections affirming that it was still on track to cut interest rates three times this year.

Two-year yields ticked up to 4.636%, from their close of 4.604% on Wednesday.

The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes narrowed by 1.5 basis points to minus 36 basis points.

The release of recent data, including reports showing inflation is not falling as fast as had been hoped by Fed policymakers, has raised questions among traders about the widely expected June start to the US central bank’s rate cuts.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that despite recent inflation data coming in hotter than expected, the numbers “haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually, on a somewhat bumpy road.”

A string of economic data on Thursday helped boost yields.

The US S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index improved in early March to 52.5 from 52.2 in February, while the US Labor Department reported the number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting job growth remained strong in March. The National Association of Realtors also reported that US existing home sales
increased to a one-year high in February.

“Manufacturing has been a weak sector compared to services over this time, so a little bit of strength there certainly didn’t help,” said Ellis Phifer, managing director of fixed income research at Raymond James.

“The Fed has also been more tuned back towards the job market and its strength,” he said. Phifer added that “if nothing else, it’s the market digesting the flatter dot-plot curve that the Fed gave us yesterday, showing the three cuts this year but maybe taking a little bit off next year.”

Traders in federal funds futures have increased their bets that the US central bank will cut rates by June to 73%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

While further stronger-than-expected inflation prints could change the Fed’s course, Powell’s dovish comments assuaged some traders’ concerns about the rate-cut plan.

“The timing and pace are what’s a little frustrating, but as long as it’s moving in the right direction, the Fed should remain on track for cuts this year,” said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager for global fixed income at Brandywine Global.

“I feel like inflation has had a couple of little bumps and that’s to be expected. But I think, as we have a conversation six months from now, inflation is still going to be well-behaved,” he added.

The US Treasury Department’s USD 16 billion auction of 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) on Thursday resulted in a high yield of 1.932% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.35. This compares to a high yield of 1.810% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.62 for the previous auction in January.

The Treasury also auctioned USD 85 billion in four-week bills and USD 85 billion in eight-week bills.

(Reporting by Matt Tracy; Editing by Paul Simao)

Gold takes a breather after record, Fed-fuelled rally

March 21 – Gold eased slightly on Thursday, hitting pause after a blistering rally that got an extra fillip after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank was on course for three interest rate cuts in 2024.

Spot gold fell 0.3% to USD 2,180.49 per ounce at 1:50 p.m. EDT (1750 GMT) after hitting an all-time high of USD 2,222.39 earlier in the session.

US gold futures settled 1.1% higher at USD 2,184.7.

Also driving gold’s correction, the dollar bounced back up 0.8%, after slipping to a one-week low, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers.

“Overnight aggressive buying seems to have run out of steam and gold prices are correcting, given that rates markets have only marginally discounted the risk of more rate cuts for 2024,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Traders are now pricing in a 72% chance that the Fed will begin cutting rates in June, up from 65% before the rate decision.

Despite recent high inflation readings, Powell said the central bank is still likely to reduce interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point by end-2024.

“Gold is still one of our favorite trades for 2024 as an attractive portfolio hedge for equity investors,” BofA Research said in a note dated March 20, adding unprecedented central buying was another reason to be bullish on gold.

Lower interest rates on other assets boost the appeal of holding non-yielding bullion.

“The mood in the gold futures market is very bullish. So your hedge funds or any other short-term traders or trend followers are positioned for higher prices, and I think this is the segment that is in the driving seat while the physical gold market is rather soft,” said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.

Silver fell 3.2% to USD 24.80 per ounce, platinum gained 0.2% to USD 908.70 and palladium lost 1.4% to USD 1,007.48.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil and Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Brijesh Patel and Harshit Verma; Editing by Shailesh Kuber and Ravi Prakash Kumar)

Oil settles lower on weaker US gasoline demand, Gaza ceasefire hopes

March 21 – Oil prices settled slightly lower on Thursday, pressured by weaker US gasoline demand data and reports of a United Nations draft resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Brent crude futures for May settled down 17 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 85.78 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures for May settled own 20 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 81.07 a barrel after a fall of about 1.8% in the previous session.

Crude inventories in the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer, unexpectedly declined last week, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday. EIA/S

Though gasoline inventories fell for a seventh week, down 3.3 million barrels to 230.8 million, gasoline product supplied, a proxy for product demand, slipped below 9 million barrels.

The fall suggested that gasoline markets, which had underpinned a recent market rally, may have been overbought, according to Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.

Oil prices also were pressured by confirmation that the US drafted a U.N. resolution calling for a ceasefire that would allow the release of 40 Israeli hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinians detained in Israeli jails, Yawger added.

Investors also took heart from the US central bank, which held interest rates in a range of 5.25% to 5.50% on Wednesday, but kept to an outlook for three rate cuts this year.

Lower rates could boost economic growth and good news for oil sales.

US business activity held steady in March, but prices increased across the board, suggesting that inflation could remain elevated after picking up at the start of the year.

Supporting prices, US Labor Department data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting that job growth remained strong in March.

Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries also prompted investors to trade crude at higher prices, factoring in that the strikes could hit global petroleum supplies.

Ukrainian drones have targeted at least seven Russian refineries this month. The attacks have shut down 7%, or around 370,500 barrels per day, of Russian refining capacity, according to Reuters calculations.

Analysts say prolonged disruptions could force Russian producers to reduce supply if they are unable to export crude oil and face storage constraints.

Elsewhere, Germany’s economy was likely in recession in the first quarter of 2024 as weak consumption and anemic industrial demand continue to push the recovery further into the future, the central bank said in a regular economic report on Thursday.

Also on Thursday, the Bank of England’s governor said Britain’s economy is “moving in the right direction” for the central bank to start cutting interest rates.

(Additional reporting by Emily Chow, Jeslyn Lerh, and Paul Carsten in London; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Jason Neely, David Evans, Alexander Smith, and David Gregorio)

Wall St ends higher as Fed keeps three rate cuts on the horizon

March 20 – Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve eased investor jitters by keeping borrowing costs unchanged and reinforcing expectations that rates could be cut as many as three times this year.

The Fed’s policy statement described inflation as remaining “elevated,” and it raised economic projections for economic growth and lowered its projection for the unemployment rate from estimates it provided in December.

Stocks added to gains after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference that despite recent inflation data coming in hotter than expected, the numbers “haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually, on a somewhat bumpy road.”

Strategists said Wall Street was reassured by Powell’s comments on inflation and the labor market and his signal that the Fed will slow the pace of its drawdown of bond holdings.

“He said he wasn’t trying to dismiss any data but he kind of gave the market a reason they could use to dismiss the data,” said Alex Coffey, senior trading strategist at TD Ameritrade.

“We came into this day feeling Jerome Powell might push back on market expectations or pivot away from dovish expectations since December because of the data we’ve had in the last two months,” Coffey said. “While he didn’t necessarily go full dove, it was dovish versus recent market worries.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 401.37 points, or 1.03%, to 39,512.13, the S&P 500 gained 46.11 points, or 0.89%, to 5,224.62 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 202.62 points, or 1.25%, to 16,369.41.

Nine of the S&P’s 11 major sectors advanced, with five of them climbing more than 1%. Consumer discretionary led the way with a 1.5% gain.

The health sector was the weakest, falling 0.23%.

In healthcare, US-listed shares of BioNTech BNTX.O dropped 4.4% after it reported a 2023 revenue and earnings plunge as it shifted focus to cancer drug development. Shares of COVID-19 vaccine makers Moderna fell 1.9% while Novavax dropped 2.2%.

The biggest boost to the consumer discretionary sector was Amazon.com, whose shares gained 1.3%.

Adding to this was Tesla, which gained 2.5% after confirming to Reuters that it would raise the price of its China-produced Model Y vehicles by 5,000 yuan ($694.55) from April 1.

Also in the consumer sector, Chipotle Mexican Grill shares climbed 3.5% after the company said its board had approved a 50-for-1 split of common stock.

Equinix shares eased 2.3% after Hindenburg Research said it has taken a short position in the data center operator.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3.76-to-1 ratio on the NYSE which showed 633 new highs and 71 new lows.

The S&P 500 posted 81 new 52-week highs and one new low while the Nasdaq recorded 251 new highs and 101 new lows.

On US exchanges, 11.67 billion shares changed hands compared with the 12.2 billion average for the last 20 sessions.

(Reporting by Sinéad Carew in New York, and Bansari Mayur Kamdar and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel and Matthew Lewis)

Yields drop as Fed sticks to 75 bps rates cut forecast for 2024

March 20 (Reuters) – US Treasury yields fell on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve said it still anticipates cutting interest rates three times this year based on its updated economic projections.

“The big takeaway for markets was that the 2024 dot remained at three cuts, and there was bit of increase in the long run dot at 2025,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities in New York.

Traders had speculated the Fed could reduce its projections to two cuts this year, which are graphed in the so-called “dot plot,” following stickier-than-expected consumer and producer price inflation in January and February.

Some of the market moves on Wednesday that sent yields briefly higher may have been due to investors covering positions after they had expected the Fed to signal fewer rate cuts this year.

“There were a lot of investors positioning for the dots to move to just two cuts this year and some of those more hawkish expectations have been dashed,” said Goldberg.

Traders are looking for further signals on whether inflation is likely to resume easing, with the increases in January and February blamed at least in part on seasonal factors.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference on Wednesday that despite the recent data, the inflation numbers “haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually, on a somewhat bumpy road.”

The US jobs market, meanwhile, has remained robust in terms of overall jobs gains, though an uptick in the unemployment rate in February raised some concerns that it is worsening.

Powell said on Wednesday that “the labor market is in good shape,” and that “I don’t see those cracks today” in labor markets.

Benchmark 10-year yields were last at 4.277%, down from around 4.297% before the Fed statement. Two-year yields dropped to 4.621%, down from around 4.677%.

The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes narrowed by five basis points on the day to minus 34 basis points.

Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 74% probability that the Fed will begin cutting rates in June, up from 59% on Tuesday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Powell also said on Wednesday that it is getting closer to slowing the pace of its balance sheet runoff.

That may help boost the US bond market as the US central bank lets fewer maturities roll off its balance sheet without replacement.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

Dollar slips after Fed statement, yen strengthens

NEW YORK, March 20 – The dollar slipped and the yen rebounded from near multi-decade lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected and policymakers still projected three US rate cuts this year even as inflation remains elevated.

The Fed’s updated quarterly economic projections showed the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rising at a 2.6% rate by year-end, compared to 2.4% in the projections the US central bank issued in December.

The new policy view upgraded the outlook for the US economy. Policymakers now see growth at 2.1% this year compared to 1.4% projected in December, while the unemployment rate is seen ending 2024 at 4%, versus 4.1% anticipated late last year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that even with unexpected strength in recent inflation data his outlook for price pressures is relatively steady.

“Jay Powell is trying to tell everyone that nothing has changed in the short term, that he’s still confident that inflation is going to proceed. That’s his main message during the press conference,” said Thierry Wizman, Macquarie’s global FX and interest rates strategist in New York.

The dollar index =USD, a measure of the US currency against six major trading partners, eased 0.34%. The yen reversed an earlier decline as the US currency fell 0.18% to 151.12 yen.

Wizman said that the message that came out of the Fed’s summary of economic projections is one of a stronger US economy, both in the short and the long term.

“There aren’t too many ways you can reconcile that, unless what you’re saying is that the reason that inflation is going to continue to come down is because we’re going to see positive productivity trends, positive supply shocks.”

Earlier the yen had slumped to 151.82, a fresh four-month low against the dollar just hours before the Fed concluded a two-day policy meeting that came after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Tuesday raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years.

Analysts said the yield differential between US Treasuries and Japanese government bonds remained wide and would keep pressure on the yen as it approaches a multi-decade low of 151.94 to the dollar hit in October 2022.

But the major central banks are largely moving in lockstep as they plan to cut interest rates to spur growth as economies slow and inflation keeps decelerating.

“Nobody’s expecting the BOJ to embark on a prolonged hiking cycle,” said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto. “You’re still going to end up in a scenario where the rate differentials between the United States and Japan are going to look fairly wide.”

Low Japanese rates have made the yen the funding currency of choice for carry trades, in which traders typically borrow a low-yielding currency to then sell and invest the proceeds in assets denominated in a higher-yielding one.

Recent stronger-than-expected US inflation reports have led traders to further reduce bets on Fed rate cuts this year, with markets now pricing in 81 basis points (bps) of easing by year end, or almost half expectations at the start of 2024.

The euro was up 0.35% to USD 1.0903.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said earlier on Wednesday that the ECB will continue to be data dependent and will not commit to a pre-set number of rate cuts even after it starts easing its monetary policy.

(Reporting by Herbert Lash; Editing by Chris Reese and Mark Potter)

Policy uncertainty drives investors into US medium-term bond funds

March 20 – Investors are flocking to US medium-term government bond funds and helping push their assets to record highs, as uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s policy path prompts them to seek the sweet spot between income and protection.

According to Morningstar Direct data, US medium-term government bond funds, which include Treasuries and debt issued by government-linked agencies, attracted USD 9.8 billion in the first two months of this year. That compared with just USD 2.3 billion for long-term government funds and an outflow of USD 3.5 billion from short-term government bond funds.

Assets under management (AUM) at US medium-term government bond funds stood at a record USD 252 billion at the end of February, up 2% this year, the data showed. By contrast, the AUM at US short-term and long-term government bonds had dropped 3.8% and 2.7% to USD 93.4 billion and USD 158.3 billion respectively.

The rush into medium tenors has been driven by shifting expectations for Fed policy. In early 2023, as the Fed’s swift policy tightening caused the yield curve to invert, investors sought short-term bonds for their yields.

Bond prices move inversely with yields. So, as talk of rate cuts grew in the second half of last year, investors flocked to long-term bonds whose yields would tend to fall more, hence boosting their prices and yielding capital gains.

The scenario has changed again this year. As the Fed contemplates cutting rates but inflation remains sticky, markets have gone from pricing six rate cuts in 2024 FEDWATCH at the end of December to now expecting just three rate cuts – reshaping investor strategies in the bond market once more.

“Some of this uncertainty in the rate path could be a driver of moving towards the middle of the curve, as investors want to have duration exposure, but don’t feel confident enough in the Fed path to be long on the yield curve,” said Michael Parnell, senior strategic research analyst at Verus.

The US central bank is likely to keep borrowing costs unchanged at its Wednesday meeting, while new projections may hint at a slower and delayed approach to future rate cuts.

Analysts say medium-term bonds offer the best of both scenarios, helping investors tie up current high yields for a reasonably long period of four to 10 years while mitigating the risk of big price losses on longer-tenor bonds should yields keep rising.

“Medium-term bond funds could continue to attract more flows over the next few quarters as they present a nice income opportunity and an appealing risk and reward profile for price action relative to duration, culminating in an attractive total return opportunity,” said Karen Manna, portfolio manager at Federated Hermes.

(Reporting by Patturaja Murugaboopathy; Additional reporting by Gaurav Dogra in Bengaluru; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Mark Potter)

Yen carry trade tempts sellers despite BOJ rate hike

SINGAPORE, March 20 – Japan’s era of negative rates may be over, but some investors are convinced that low rates are not, meaning bets against the yen are back despite the Bank of Japan’s first hike in 17 years.

While the BOJ move at Tuesday’s policy meeting marked a monumental shift, it stuck to its dovish tones and said it expects to maintain “accommodative financial conditions”.

That sent traders scurrying back into popular yen ‘carry trades’, driving an already battered yen yet lower.

“Japan still remains the lowest interest rate among the G10,” said Shafali Sachdev, head of investment services, Asia at BNP Paribas Wealth Management.

“So, with event risk out of the way, this is almost seen as an opportunity to re-enter carry positions.”

In a carry trade, an investor borrows in a currency with low interest rates and invests the proceeds in a higher-yielding currency. A 3-month dollar-yen carry trade can earn as much as 5% on an annualized basis.

The rush to borrow yen for carry trades was clearly reflected in Wednesday’s price action.

The yen slid to its weakest in four months against the dollar, a 16-year low against the euro and its lowest level against sterling since 2015, extending its fall from the previous session.

GAPING YIELDS

Some of the yen’s decline came on the back of a ‘sell-the-fact’ trade, given how BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, unlike his predecessor Haruhiko Kuroda who had a shock-and-awe approach, had prepared investors for a potential move.

“What would have been quite seismic announcements historically were in the end quite muted, given what had already been leaked to the markets over the last few days,” said Charles Hepworth, investment director at GAM Investments.

Moreover, there is still a yawning gap between rates in Japan and those in other developed economies. The US Federal Reserve’s main policy rate stands at 5.25-5.5%, and those in other major economies also remain above 4%.

That stark differential keeps the yen carry trades in favor, and in turn the currency under pressure. The currency has slid 16% against the dollar from a peak in January 2023.

“The big pairs continue to be versus the dollar, versus the Aussie, versus the kiwi… These are more shorter-term trades where the carry is in your favor,” said BNP Paribas’ Sachdev.

And with volatility relatively low and the Fed unlikely to commence its rate easing cycle anytime soon, it is easy to see why investors are eager to amass yen-financed positions.

Three-month dollar/yen implied volatility, a measure of the cost of options contracts that traders use to hedge positions, is near its lowest level in about three months.

Market expectations for a first Fed cut in June have also been scaled back after a run of data pointing to still-sticky inflation in the world’s largest economy.

“Any time the Fed and the BOJ are moving policy settings at about the same time, it’s always the Fed that rules and dominates the price action,” said Gareth Berry, FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group.

HSBC analysts think yen selling will eventually abate, around when the Fed starts cutting rates. If the dollar falls and the yen appreciates, then the yield on the yen carry trades will be eroded.

But for now, even a landmark policy pivot from the BOJ has not been able to turn the tide in the yen’s favor.

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook and Rae Wee; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Alexander Smith)

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