Safe-haven gold rises over 1% as Trump’s tax cut and spending bill passes in US Senate

Gold climbed more than 1% on Tuesday as investors sought safe-haven assets after US President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” passed in the Senate, ahead of the July 9 deadline for trade tariffs.

Spot gold rose 1.1% to USD 3,338.24 per ounce, as of 2:25 p.m. EDT (1825 GMT), its highest level since June 24. US gold futures settled 1.3% higher at USD 3,349.8.

The Republican-controlled US Senate voted on Tuesday to pass a wide-ranging tax-cut and spending bill sought by Trump, which would cut several social service programmes.

“The budget bill that passed is providing support because it seems that it will contribute to a deficit of USD 3 trillion over the next 10 years,” Marex analyst Edward Meir said.

“This is both to some extent inflationary, and more importantly, it will increase the debt burden that we have to service with more financing, more borrowing and all of these things are constructive for a stronger gold market.”

Gold, considered a store of value, tends to thrive on political and economic uncertainty.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs despite good-faith negotiations as July 9 approaches, when tariff rates are scheduled to revert from a temporary 10% level to Trump’s suspended rates of 11% to 50%.

Investors are watching out for US ADP employment data due on Wednesday, and Thursday’s payrolls data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that excluding the tariffs, inflation was behaving as expected and hoped.

Markets are currently expecting two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year, starting in September.

Lower rates boost non-yielding gold’s appeal.

Gold is likely to average USD 3000/oz for the fourth quarter and possibly even lower by year-end, said Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA & Asia at StoneX.

Spot silver was up 0.1% at USD 36.11 per ounce, while palladium was flat at USD 1,097.16, and platinum fell 0.7% to USD 1,342.78.

(Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Alan Barona)

S&P 500, Nasdaq close at record highs, cap best quarter in over a year

NEW YORK – The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record closing highs on Monday, capping their best quarter in over a year as hopes for trade deals and possible rate cuts eased investor uncertainty.

Both indexes ended the quarter with double-digit gains. The S&P 500 gained 10.57% during the period, the Nasdaq rose 17.75%, and the Dow climbed 4.98%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap index rose 8.28% in the quarter.

Still, the three main indexes posted their weakest first-half performances since 2022, as the uncertainty around trade policy has kept investors wary during the year, with tensions peaking after President Donald Trump disclosed widespread tariffs on April 2.

Trade deals with China and the UK have fueled optimism that an all-out global trade war can be minimized, with hopes for more deals to be reached before Trump’s July 9 trade deadline.

The end of the quarter was also influenced by managers tweaking their portfolios to look more attractive at quarter-end.

“Animal spirits seem to have taken hold here,” said Roy Behren, co-president of Westchester Capital management fund. “It is also quite common for the last couple of days of a quarter to see strength because of the window dressing.”

On Sunday, Canada scrapped its digital services tax targeting US tech firms, just hours before it was due to take effect, in a bid to advance stalled trade negotiations with the United States.

But US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Monday that countries could still face sharply higher tariffs on July 9 even if they are negotiating in good faith, and any potential extensions will be up to Trump.

Meanwhile, US Senate Republicans will try to pass Trump’s sweeping tax-cut and spending bill, despite divisions within the party about its expected USD 3.3 trillion hit to the USD 36.2 trillion national debt. Trump wants the bill passed before the July 4 Independence Day holiday.

Key economic data releases this week include monthly non-farm payrolls and the Institute for Supply Management’s survey on manufacturing and services sectors for June.

Several US central bank officials, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak later this week.

A raft of soft economic data and expectations that Trump will replace Powell with someone dovish have pushed up bets of rate cuts from the Fed this year.

On Monday, nine of the 11 S&P indexes closed up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 275.50 points, or 0.63%, to 44,094.77, the S&P 500 gained 31.88 points, or 0.52%, to 6,204.95, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 96.28 points, or 0.48%, to 20,369.73.

Shares of big US banks rose after most cleared the Federal Reserve’s annual “stress test,” paving the way for billions in stock buybacks and dividends.

Leading the S&P 500 were Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, up 11.1 %, First Solar up 8.8 %,and Juniper Networks up 8.45 %.

“The current rally was driven by a few heavyweight stocks that drove indexes up, giving the market a sense of optimism despite rising deficit and unresolved policy issues,” said Cole Smead, CEO and portfolio manager of Smead Capital Management.

“The stock market doesn’t seem to care at all, people think this party is going to go on forever,” he said. “I think this game is over. It’s just a matter of when and how bad it gets.”

Volume on US exchanges was 17.12 billion shares, compared with the 18.23 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Sabrina Valle in New York; Additional reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Nikhil Sharma in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath and Matthew Lewis)

Gold rises on weaker dollar; investors await US jobs data

Gold edged higher on Monday, supported by a weaker US dollar, while investors hunkered down for US economic data due later this week for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to USD 3,293.55 per ounce as of 2:00 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) after reaching its lowest point since May 29 earlier in the session. The yellow metal was up for the second straight quarter, rising 5.5%.

US gold futures settled 0.6% higher at USD 3,307.70.

“A weaker dollar today is providing a bit of support. But we’re still within the well-defined range that has dominated since the middle of May,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

The dollar languished against the euro and Swiss franc as markets weighed the prospect of a ballooning US government deficit and the potential for trade deals with major trading partners.

On the trade front, the US and China resolved issues over rare earth minerals and magnet shipments last week, renewing hopes for further talks between the two superpowers. Elsewhere, Canada scrapped its digital services tax targeting US tech firms late Sunday to revive stalled trade negotiations with the US

Gold, traditionally considered a hedge during times of uncertainty, also thrives in a low-interest rate environment.

Investors now await the US ADP employment data, due Wednesday, and Thursday’s initial jobless claims data for hints on the central bank’s potential policy path.

Citi analysts said in a note that they expect gold prices to consolidate between USD 3,100 and USD 3,500 in the third quarter of the year, noting that the late April peak of USD 3,500 may already be the high as the gold market deficit approaches its peak.

Spot silver eased 0.1% at USD 35.93 per ounce, while platinum fell 0.3% to USD 1,334.70, and palladium dropped 3.2% to USD 1,097.24. The three metals were headed for gains so far this quarter.

(Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid, Shailesh Kuber, and Alan Barona)

Oil edges down on easing Middle East risks but gains for a second month

HOUSTON – Oil prices edged down on Monday as investors weighed easing Middle East risks and a possible OPEC+ output increase in August.

Both Brent and US crude oil benchmarks posted their biggest weekly declines since March 2023 last week but rose for the second consecutive month, gaining around 6% and 7% respectively.

Brent futures settled down 16 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 67.61 a barrel and expired on Monday. The more active September contract ended at USD 66.74.

US West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 41 cents, or 0.6%, at USD 65.11 a barrel.

A 12-day war that started with Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 13 sent prices above USD 80 a barrel before sliding back to USD 67.

“This ceasefire that was quickly engineered appears to be holding up, so the supply risk premium that was in place is continuing to be withdrawn in a rapid fashion,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital.

Meanwhile, US crude oil production hit a record 13.47 million barrels per day in April, up from 13.45 million bpd in March, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration as part of its Petroleum Supply Monthly series.

The record US oil production was adding to the bearish sentiment on Monday, Kilduff added.

OPEC+ SET TO BOOST PRODUCTION IN AUGUST

Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week that the group was set to boost production by 411,000 bpd in August after similar increases for May, June and July.

If the increase is agreed, it would bring the total rise in supply from OPEC+ to 1.78 million bpd so far this year, equivalent to over 1.5% of total global demand.

“I believe this potential supply pressure remains under-priced, leaving crude vulnerable to further weakness,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

The oil producer group is set to meet again on July 6.

Some market tightness remains despite rising output, however, said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS.

A Reuters survey found that OPEC oil output rose in May, but gains were limited by cuts by countries that had previously exceeded their quotas. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, made smaller increases than allowed.

Kazakhstan, which has persistently exceeded quotas set by OPEC+, may exceed its previous oil production forecast by around 2% this year following an upgrade to output at its largest Caspian oilfields, Reuters calculations, based on data from state-owned energy company KazMunayGaz, showed.

A survey of 40 economists and analysts in June forecast Brent crude will average USD 67.86 per barrel in 2025, up from May’s USD 66.98 forecast, while US crude is seen at USD 64.51, above last month’s USD 63.35 estimate.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Seher Dareen in London, and Florence Tan and Sam Li in Singapore. Editing by David Goodman, Chizu Nomiyama, Mark Potter, and Marguerita Choy)

Dollar hits near 4-year low versus euro, weighed by worries over tax bill, trade deal

NEW YORK – The dollar hit a near four-year low against the euro on Monday amid worries over the rising US government deficit and uncertainty surrounding trade deals with major countries.

Senate Republicans will try to pass President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut and spending bill, despite divisions within the party about its expected USD 3.3 trillion hit to the nation’s debt pile.

The dollar dropped 0.63% to 0.79355 against the Swiss franc, on track to end the month down 3.60%. The greenback has lost about 12.5% against the Swissie this year.

The euro hit its highest against the dollar since September 2021 at USD 1.1780. It was last up 0.45% and set to gain about 3.8% for the month. The single currency has gained about 14% against the dollar this year.

“There’s a lot of focus around the big, huge bill and whether that gets approved,” said Amo Sahota, executive director at FX consulting firm Klarity FX in San Francisco. “The dollar has been on a weakening trend. We are halfway through the year and the big winners have been the stocky (Swedish krona), the Swiss franc, and the euro. The euro’s fortunes turned after the euro zone announced a huge spending bill.”

The EU is open to accepting a trade agreement with the US that would apply a universal 10% tariff on many of its exports, Bloomberg News reported on Monday.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that countries could still face sharply higher tariffs on July 9 even if they are negotiating in good faith, adding that any potential extensions will be up to Trump.

The US and China had resolved issues around shipments of Chinese rare earth minerals and magnets to the United States, further modifying a May deal in Geneva, Bessent had said last week.

“You have a weak dollar due to a potentially large increase in our budget deficit, and you have continued uncertainty around these tariff deals,” said Eugene Epstein, head of structuring for North America at Moneycorp in New Jersey.

“We had this positive news from the EU for a little bit and we had potential positive deals coming up, but then you had Trump doing a temporary about-face on Friday on Canada and so forth,” Epstein said.

Trump said Japan would be among countries to receive a trade letter outlining tariffs they would need to pay to the US

The dollar was down 0.36% to 144.45 against the Japanese yen, on track to finish the month flat versus the Asian currency.

Canada halted its plans to begin collecting a new digital services tax targeting US technology firms just hours before it was due to start on Monday in a bid to advance stalled trade negotiations with Washington.

The Canadian dollar strengthened against the US currency on the session. It was set to notch its fifth straight month of gains against the greenback. The loonie was up 0.41% versus the greenback to C$ 1.353 per dollar.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.35% to 96.86, on track for its sixth straight month of losses. It is set to mark its worst half-year since the 1970s.

“It’s kind of rotating a game of musical chairs, whether it’s the ‘big beautiful bill’, the trade deals, and then the Iran-Israel conflict. It’s all like taking turns to be at center stage; once one thing passes and the other thing is focused on,” Epstein said.

The Swedish krona strengthened 0.48% versus the dollar to 9.462. Sterling strengthened 0.04% to USD 1.3719. It is up 2% in June.

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York. Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland and Johann M Cherian. Editing by Mark Potter and Marguerita Choy)

Oil falls on prospect of more OPEC+ supply, easing risks in Mideast

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell 1% on Monday as an easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the prospect of another OPEC+ output hike in August boosted the supply outlook.

Brent crude futures fell 66 cents, or 0.97%, to USD 67.11 a barrel by 0031 GMT, ahead of the August contract’s expiry later on Monday. The more active September contract was at USD 65.97, down 83 cents.

US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 94 cents, or 1.43%, to USD 64.58 a barrel.

Last week, both benchmarks posted their biggest weekly decline since March 2023, but they are set to finish higher in June with a second consecutive monthly gain of more than 5%.

A 12-day war that started with Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 13 caused Brent prices to surge above USD 80 a barrel after the US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities and then slump to USD 67 after President Donald Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire.

The market has stripped out most of the geopolitical risk premium built into the price following the Iran-Israel ceasefire, IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

Further weighing on the market, four delegates from OPEC+, which includes allies of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said the group was set to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following similar-size output increases for May, June and July.

OPEC+ is set to meet on July 6 and this would be the fifth monthly increase since the group started unwinding production cuts in April.

In the U.S., the number of operating oil rigs, an indicator of future output, fell by six to 432 last week, the lowest level since October 2021, Baker Hughes said.

(Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Sonali Paul)

UK watchdog to ease rules on investment advice

LONDON – Britain’s financial regulator said on Monday it will make it easier for investment firms to give customers support with their pensions and investments, a move broadly welcomed by finance firms who had complained about the current strict rule book.

Under existing rules investment firms are restricted in how much support they can give customers outside of more highly regulated financial advice. This created an “advice gap” for those unable to afford the regulated advice, firms had said.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) plans to create a new category of help for consumers called “targeted support” allowing firms to make suggestions to certain groups such as those not saving enough for retirement or holding excess cash.

The FCA said it also planned to ease rules for simplified advice, but added that there would remain a place in the industry for full financial advice. The watchdog will consult on the proposed changes before introducing them next year.

“We want to help consumers navigate their financial lives and plan for the long term,” said Sarah Pritchard, deputy chief executive of the FCA. “Some of the most difficult financial decisions we face are how to save, invest and prepare for a comfortable retirement.”

Investment firms welcomed the proposals but said the new rules had to be clearly defined and any potential penalties properly understood.

“The advice gap has been acknowledged for years, but never properly addressed. The FCA has great ambitions, and this seems like the best chance in a generation to tackle the problem,” said Verona Kenny, chief distribution officer at Aberdeen Adviser.

(Reporting by Iain Withers; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

Oil market reflects slim chance of supply disruption, Goldman analysts say

Options markets suggest the probability of a disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz is just 4% following the Iran-Israel ceasefire, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note on Thursday.

Fears that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities sent Brent crude futures to a high of USD 81.40 on Monday, but concerns eased in the wake of the truce declared the next day, sending crude back below USD 68.

The sharp drop in the geopolitical risk premium likely reflected traders’ recent experiences with major geopolitical shocks without significant oil disruptions, Iran’s restrained response, strong U.S. and China incentives to avoid large disruptions, and the likely shift to large inventory builds from the fall, Goldman analysts said.

Options markets see a 60% chance that Brent will stay in the USD 60s in three months and a 28% probability they would exceed USD 70, Goldman analysts said.

Were oil flows to be disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, Brent would climb to USD 90 a barrel, they said.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Sonali Paul)

Dollar drops to lowest since 2021 against euro, sterling

NEW YORK – The dollar hit a three-and-a-half-year low against the euro and sterling on Thursday in a broad selloff as traders priced in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut rates more than previously expected.

“This week it’s definitely been about the Fed, the prospect of easing sooner and potentially more rate cuts,” said Eric Theoret, FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was interpreted as being more dovish this week in testimony to US Congress. He repeated expectations that inflation should rise this summer, but said that if price pressure remains contained “we will get to a place where we cut rates sooner than later.”

“Powell kind of opened the door to potentially a July cut,” said Noel Dixon, global macro strategist at State Street Global Markets. If the next consumer price inflation release is below market expectations, “I think markets will start to price in the probability of a cut to July.”

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 23% odds of a July cut, up from 13% a week ago, while a cut by September has a 93% probability, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. In total, traders see 66 basis points of cuts by year-end, indicating a potential third 25-basis point reduction, up from 46 basis points on Friday.

US President Donald Trump will nominate a new Fed Chair next year who is expected to be more dovish than Powell, whose term will end in May.

Trump on Wednesday called Powell “terrible” and said he has three or four people in mind as contenders for the top Fed job. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Trump has toyed with the idea of selecting and announcing Powell’s replacement by September or October.

Analysts say that person could operate as a shadow Fed chair, undermining Powell’s influence.

Dixon said that a shadow Fed Chair could be a problem if inflation reaccelerates and seems to be persistent “because the message there would be that they would discount the inflation.”

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that any move to name a replacement for Powell would have
no influence
on monetary policy while the nominee awaited confirmation.

The euro was last up 0.51% at USD1.1719 and reached USD1.1744, the highest since September 2021. Sterling rose 0.62% to USD1.3748 and got as high as USD1.3770, its highest since October 2021.

The Swiss franc hit a 10-1/2-year high at 0.799 per dollar.

The dollar fell 0.72% to 144.2 Japanese yen.

Investors are also focused on the Trump administration’s self-imposed July 9 deadline to negotiate deals that avoid reciprocal tariffs with trading partners.

US Congress is also working on a tax and spending bill which the Senate is aiming to pass by July 4.

The dollar could get a boost if fiscal stimulus from the bill boosts growth and reduces the deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product, said Dixon.

Until then, the budget and current account deficits are negative for the dollar, he said.

Longer-term the dollar is also under pressure as international investors reallocate away from US assets on concerns about the outlook for the economy and the US currency.

“The result of US asset outperformance over the past decade is you’ve got a lot of asset managers that are long the US dollar way more than I think they’re comfortable,” said Theoret.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.43% to USD107,382.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Linda Pasquini in Gdansk; Editing by Alex Richardson and Diane Craft)

Oil rebounds on signs of strong US demand

NEW YORK – Oil prices rose nearly 1% on Wednesday, recovering from a sharp slide early this week, as data showed relatively strong US demand, and as investors assessed the stability of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

Brent crude futures settled 54 cents higher, or 0.8%, at USD 67.68 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) ended up 55 cents, or 0.9%, at USD 64.92, both paring some of the 13% losses made earlier in the week.

After US President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire on Tuesday, Brent settled at its lowest since June 10, and WTI ended at its lowest since June 5 on the reduced Middle East supply risk.

Oil prices had rallied after June 13, when Israel launched a surprise attack on key Iranian military and nuclear facilities. Prices hit five-month highs after the US attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend.

“While concerns regarding Middle Eastern supply have diminished for now, they have not entirely disappeared, and there remains a stronger demand for immediate supply,” said ING analysts in a client note.

Prices found support from Wednesday’s government data that showed US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories fell last week.

Crude inventories dropped by 5.8 million barrels, data showed, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 797,000-barrel draw.

Gasoline stocks unexpectedly fell by 2.1 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a 381,000-barrel build as gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, rose to its highest since December 2021.

“We are looking at big draws across the board,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group. “This type of report can refocus on US supply and demand, and less on geopolitics.”

A slew of US macroeconomic data released overnight, including data on consumer confidence, showed possibly weaker-than-expected economic growth in the world’s largest oil consumer, bolstering expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year.

Oil prices will likely consolidate at around USD 65-70 per barrel levels as traders look to more US macroeconomic data this week and the Fed rate decision, said independent market analyst Tina Teng.

The market is betting that the Fed could cut US interest rates as soon as September, which would typically spur economic growth and demand for oil.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly; Additional reporting by Anna Hirtenstein and Trixie Yap; Editing by Marguerita Choy, David Gregorio, and Cynthia Osterman)

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