Dollar gains on yen, bitcoin muted after SEC approves ETFs

NEW YORK, Jan 10 – The dollar gained on the yen but dipped against the euro on Wednesday as investors waited on US inflation data for fresh clues on when the Federal Reserve is likely to begin cutting interest rates.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin seesawed in a range after news that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approved 11 spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. It was last down 1.5% at 45,441.

There was some uncertainty about whether the SEC had finalized approval, a day after
a social media message on the SEC’s account claimed the regulator had approved bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs), but was later revealed to have been made by an unauthorized person.

After about 40 minutes of confusion about what looked like an official announcement by the SEC, the agency confirmed approved applications, including from BlackRock, Ark Investments and 21Shares, Fidelity, Invesco, and VanEck, among others, according to a notice on its website. Some products are expected to begin trading as early as Thursday.

The dollar index has held in a tight range since Friday when it was volatile, initially jumping on data showing strong jobs gains in December, before dropping on some soft underlying details of the employment report.

The dollar weakened further on Friday after a report by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) also showed the US services sector slowed considerably in December.

This week’s consolidation “was somewhat predictable in the sense that we have these huge gyrations last Friday on the back of the jobs data and the soft ISM,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Forex in New York.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) due out on Thursday is the next likely driver of dollar direction. It is expected to show that headline inflation rose 0.2% in the month and by 3.2% on an annual basis.

Traders are pricing for the likelihood that the Fed will begin cutting rates in March as inflation eases back closer to the US central bank’s 2% target. But with aggressive rate cut bets already baked into prices, the dollar is holding above five-month lows reached in late December.

The dollar index was last down 0.14% at 102.36. The euro gained 0.36% to USD 1.09700.

The greenback rose 0.84% to 145.68 yen.

Soft economic data this week in Japan may make it less likely that the Bank of Japan will raise rates out of negative territory this month.

“A vocal minority were talking about a rate hike at the end of this month when the Bank of Japan meets, but I think that people feel more comfortable with an April move,” Chandler said.

Data on Wednesday showed that Japanese workers’ real wages kept shrinking for the 20th month in November. Core inflation in Japan’s capital also slowed for the second straight month in December as cost-push price pressures continued to ease, data showed on Tuesday.

In crypto, bitcoin was last up 0.64% at USD 46,438. It briefly hit a 21-month high of USD 47,897 on Tuesday after the post that the SEC blamed on a hack.

Anticipation of a positive SEC decision on ETFs, which is likely to draw billions of dollars in new investments, has boosted bitcoin prices in the past two months.

“The reality is most who have followed the saga have moved on and the green light from the SEC is fully priced,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

Ethereum also reached USD 2,483, the highest since May 2022, and was last up 5.19% at USD 2,468.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell; additional reporting by Alden Bentley in New York and Joice Alves in London; editing by Jonathan Oatis, Will Dunham, and Marguerita Choy)

Nikkei rally is no flash in Japan

Jan 11 – South Korea delivers its latest interest rate decision on Thursday with the main focus being policymakers’ signal as to when the rate-cutting cycle begins, while Japanese stocks continue to ride the crest of an increasingly bullish wave.

The latest figures for Thai consumer sentiment, Malaysian industrial production, Australian trade and Japan’s foreign exchange reserves are also out on Thursday, ahead of the most significant event for global markets this week – US inflation.

Japanese markets, if not the rest of the region, are poised to open on a strong footing on Thursday after yet another solid performance on Wednesday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index surged to a fresh 34-year high above 34,000 points as investors ponder whether the Bank of Japan will ‘normalize’ policy as quickly or dramatically as they were anticipating.

The BOJ had already begun scaling back its ultra-easy policy by effectively lifting the ‘yield curve control’, paving the way to phase it out completely and end seven years of negative interest rate policy later this year.

But recent data suggest inflation is falling back towards the BOJ’s 2% target and inflationary pressures are easing. If so, will the BOJ need to move so quickly, or even at all?

The yen is weakening, making Japanese exports more competitive in the global marketplace and making it cheaper for overseas investors to buy Japanese assets. As a result, Japanese stocks are on a tear and outperforming their peers.

The Nikkei is on course for its best week in three months and is up 3% this year, while the S&P 500 and MSCI World Index are essentially flat, the Euro STOXX 50 is down more than 1% and the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index is down 4%.

Elsewhere in Asia on Thursday, attention shifts to Seoul and the Bank of Korea’s latest policy decision.

The BOK is widely expected to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50% for an eighth consecutive meeting, but with inflation easing, speculation around when the BOK pivots is bound to intensify, especially with the Fed, ECB and other major central banks widely expected to start cutting rates soon.

Inflation is currently 3.2%, above the central bank’s 2% target but cooling once again, and the won is down around 2% against the dollar so far this year.

BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong said in a New Year speech the central bank would adopt a “policy mix” to bring down inflation and warned that keeping monetary policy restrictive for too long posed risks.

Swaps markets currently point to a quarter-point rate cut by August and a strong probability of another by the end of the year.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

– South Korea interest rate decision

– Australia trade (November)

– Malaysia industrial production (November)

(By Jamie McGeever)

US yields narrowly mixed ahead of inflation data

NEW YORK, Jan 10 – US Treasury yields were mixed, with those on the shorter end of the curve slightly lower on Wednesday, as investors priced in a consumer price index (CPI) report that could show declining inflation, moving the Federal Reserve closer to the end of its tightening cycle.

A mixed to decent US 10-year note auction added to Treasury bids and briefly weighed on prices. The US Treasury will next auction USD 21 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

But the main focus is the December CPI data due on Thursday, which will shed further light on when the Fed could start cutting rates. US producer prices will be released on Friday.

US core CPI is forecast to remain unchanged at 0.3% from the month before, while the year-on-year number is seen rising at a lower-than-expected pace of 3.8% from November, a Reuters poll showed. Headline CPI for the month is forecast to climb 0.2%.

“Everyone is waiting for CPI tomorrow (Thursday), which should set up the next wave of Fed commentary,” said Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial in New York. “So I see the moves in Treasuries as pre-CPI positioning.”

He said core inflation of 0.3% is on the high side, which he believes could push out expectations for the first rate cut from March to May.

On Wednesday, however, the US rate futures market has priced in a nearly 68% chance of a rate cut in March, according to LSEG’s rate probability app. For 2024, traders are betting on about five rate cuts of 25 basis points (bps) each, putting the year-end fed funds rate at nearly 4%.

“We think that the start of the rate-cutting cycle in March is realistic, a view that we’ve held since October. It all comes down to the inflation data,” said Zachary Griffiths, senior investment grade strategist at CreditSights in Charlotte, North Carolina.

“The recent trend is still supportive of inflation moving lower throughout 2024. It comes down to the idea of the Fed not wanting to incrementally tighten the real policy rate by leaving the nominal policy rate steady as inflation comes down,” he added.

In afternoon trading, the benchmark 10-year yield rose 1.9 bps to 4.034%.

The US 10-year note auction showed a high yield of 4.024%, modestly higher than the market’s forecast of around 4.19%, suggesting investors demanded a slight premium.

Bids totaled USD 94.8 billion for a 2.56 bid-to-cover ratio, a gauge of demand, higher than last month’s 2.53 and the 2.48 average. It ties for the best since February, according to Action Economics.

Indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks, took down 66.1% of supply, higher than the 63.8% last month.

“Ten-year demand seems to be pretty solid,” said CreditSights’ Griffiths. “It doesn’t seem that we’re headed back to 5% in yield any time soon as indicated by the 10-year demand today.”

In other maturities, US 30-year bond yields were up 1.5 bps at 4.198%.

On the shorter end of the curve, the two-year yield was little changed at 4.366%.

A closely tracked US yield curve metric, showing the gap in yields between two- and 10-year notes steepened or narrowed its inversion to minus 33.9 bps on Wednesday. An inverted yield curve typically predicts an incoming recession.

This part of the curve, which has been inverted since July 2022, has been on a steepening trend over the last few months, suggesting investors are pricing the end of the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle.

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Will Dunham and Richard Chang)

Gold subdued as traders gear up for US inflation print

Jan 10 – Gold prices eased on Wednesday ahead of US inflation data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s outlook on interest rate cuts this year, although a softer dollar kept a floor under prices.

Spot gold was down 0.4% at USD 2,021.39 per ounce by 2:25 p.m. ET (1925 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.3% lower at USD 2027.8.

Cooler-than-expected inflation data will give the Fed more reason to cut rates this year, which should move gold prices higher, said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, adding that he expected “a quiet session with a little bit of back and forth.”

US consumer inflation data is due on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters see year-on-year inflation at 3.2% in December, but think core inflation likely fell to 3.8%, its lowest since mid-2021.

A New York Federal Reserve report revealed that consumers expect a decline in inflation, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Monday stated that the US central bank’s monetary policy seems “sufficiently restrictive”.

Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields ticked up, denting bullion’s appeal. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding bullion.

“If markets have to dilute bets for a March rate cut, spot gold may see a brief stint back in the sub-USD 2k domain,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group.

“Still, bullion bulls would have no qualms restoring spot gold back above that psychologically important mark once markets get a firmer grasp on the Fed’s policy pivot.”

The dollar index ticked down about 0.2%, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for buyers holding other currencies.

In other metals, spot silver fell 0.3% to USD 22.91 per ounce, set for its third consecutive session of declines.

Platinum lost 1.3% to a near one-month low of USD 917.55, while palladium rose 1.8% to USD 995.69, snapping an 11-sesion losing streak.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Jan Harvey, Emelia Sithole-Matarise, and Shailesh Kuber)

European shares end lower, with miners and travel stocks leading losses

Jan 10 (Reuters) – European shares ended lower on Wednesday, with miners and travel stocks leading the fall, as optimism about early interest rate cuts continued to fade, while investors kept tabs on a key US inflation print due later this week.

The pan-European STOXX 600 ended 0.2% lower, with travel and leisure leading sectoral declines, falling 1.1%. The basic resources index dipped 1.1% as well, its third straight day of losses.

Heavyweight energy shares lost 0.9%, their fourth straight session in the red amid slipping oil prices.

Helping limit losses, the health care index continued its recent strong run, adding 0.3%.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers reaffirmed the bank’s policy stance, saying the euro zone may have been in recession last quarter and prospects in the near term remain weak.

“People were overly optimistic in expecting rate cuts, that’s because the progression of inflation from September to November had been very swift,” said Frédérique Carrier, head of investment strategy for RBC Wealth Management in the British Isles and Asia.

“But the improvement in inflation has slowed somewhat … what’s remarkable is that unemployment has not deteriorated, so that is giving the ECB some scope for patience.”

Investor focus this week will be on the earnings season in the United States and Europe, which will help assess the impact of high interest rates on profit margins, potentially influencing the market direction for the next few weeks.

Also on the radar will be a December US consumer prices reading on Thursday.

On the data front on Wednesday, Norway’s core inflation rate fell below expectations in December, which could help bring forward the central bank’s policy easing plan. Oslo shares ended 0.5% lower.

Separately, surveys from two prominent research institutes said the outlook for Germany’s construction sector was grim for 2024. German stocks ended flat on the day.

Meanwhile, Barclays raised its 2024 target for Europe’s benchmark STOXX 600 to 510 points from 485, citing the prospect of central banks cutting interest rates and a “soft landing” scenario playing out.

Among individual stocks, UK insurers Direct Line and Admiral fell 7.5% and 5.6%, respectively, as traders pointed to an article in the Insurance Post quoting a regulator’s comments on premium finance.

Italy’s Davide Campari lost 6.5% after the spirits group completed a 1.2 billion euro (USD 1.3 billion) private placement of shares and bonds to fund its acquisition of French cognac house Courvoisier.

Swiss chemical company Sika fell 3.8% after missing full-year sales estimates.

(Reporting by Khushi Singh, Shristi Achar A, and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema and Mark Potter)

Oil prices fall 1% after surprise US storage build

NEW YORK, Jan 10 – Oil prices fell nearly a dollar a barrel on Wednesday after a surprise jump in US crude stockpiles raised worries about demand in the largest oil market.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 87 cents, or 1.2%, to USD 71.37 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent crude oil futures settled 79 cents, or 1%, to USD 76.80 a barrel.

Prices had gained more than 1% early in the session but reversed course after the US Energy Information Administration reported a surprise build in crude oil stockpiles and larger-than-expected jumps in storage of gasoline and distillates.

“Today’s EIA report highlights investor concerns of slowing demand growth,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at US Bank Asset Management.

US crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 5 to 432.4 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 700,000 barrel drop. Gasoline stocks rose by 8 million barrels while distillate stocks jumped by 6.5 million barrels, the EIA reported.

“Part of the explanation is weaker crude and refined product exports resulting in higher US builds, so that is something to watch in my view, how foreign demand evolves,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Europe’s weak economic outlook added to oil demand concerns. The euro zone may have been in recession last quarter and prospects remain weak, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Wednesday.

Limiting some losses, investors remained worried about potential oil supply disruptions in the Middle East during the Israel-Hamas war.

The White House said attacks by Yemen-based Houthi militants in the Red Sea were “escalatory” and the US will consult with its partners about next steps if they continue.

“Today’s market reaction indicate traders are actively balancing the potential impact of growing geopolitical risk and slowing economic growth on commodity prices,” said Thomas Wash, market strategist at Missouri-based Confluence Investment Management.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan; Additional reporting by Alex Lawler, Yuka Obayashi, and Muyu Xu; editing by Jason Neely, David Evans, and David Gregorio)

Oil tries to regain footing as Middle East crisis, OPEC supply in focus

Jan 9 – Oil prices steadied on Tuesday after sliding in the previous session, as markets weighed Middle East tensions against demand worries and rising OPEC supply.

Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 76.29 a barrel at 0707 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures inched up 0.1%, or 5 cents, to USD 70.82 a barrel.

The benchmarks had fallen over 3% and 4% respectively on Monday on sharp price cuts by top exporter Saudi Arabia and a rise in OPEC output.

“Saudi Arabia’s sharp price cuts and OPEC’s increased production have offset supply concerns caused by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,” said CMC Markets analyst Leon Li.

On the Gaza war, the Israeli military has said its fight against Hamas will rage through 2024, worrying markets that the conflict could grow into a regional crisis that could disrupt Middle Eastern oil supplies.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv late on Monday to brief Israeli officials on his two days of talks with Arab leaders on ending the war.

Holding back price gains however, a Reuters survey on Friday found that OPEC oil output rose in December as increases in Angola, Iraq and Nigeria offset continuing cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the wider OPEC+ alliance.

Higher supply had prompted Saudi Arabia to cut the February official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia to the lowest level in 27 months.

Oil prices are likely to trade in a range between USD 75 and USD 80 per barrel in the near term, said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, “barring an unforeseen flare up in the Middle East situation.”

“On the supply side, there are some bullish factors from the closure of Libya’s largest oilfield, which has affected around 0.3 million barrels per day of oil production,” he added.

Supporting prices, the dollar paused its rally on Tuesday, as traders reaffirmed their bets for a slew of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. A weaker dollar boosts oil prices as crude becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman on Monday said she now sees US monetary policy as “sufficiently restrictive” and signalled her willingness to support eventual interest-rate cuts as inflation eases.

The market is awaiting US inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group later in the day.

(Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar in Houston and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Sonali Paul)

Tokyo traders to get inflation read and wait for US CPI

Jan 8 – Tokyo markets will reopen on Tuesday after a long weekend with consumer price and spending data to take in early Tuesday and must decide what to make of the strong tech-led rally on Wall Street after Friday’s directionless trading.

Later in the week, the US December CPI report could provide important signals for global investors. For a day at least Nikkei and JGB players will have to get cues from Japan’s December household spending and Tokyo Consumer Price Index.

The Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.27% on Friday and is less than 1% below the 33-year high close from December.

On Monday, South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI fell 0.40% and China’s blue-chip index fell to its lowest level in nearly five years, while Hong Kong stocks shed roughly 2%, amid rising geopolitical tensions before Taiwan’s elections on Saturday and weak confidence in Beijing’s economy.

Things were looking up on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq and S&P 500 surged on the back of megacaps and chip stocks. The main negative was a slide in Boeing which put pressure on the Dow. The US ordered the temporary grounding of some 737 MAX 9 jets fitted with a panel that blew off an Alaska Air Group jet in midair on Friday.

In potential share-moving news, Japan’s Sony 6758.T is planning to scrap the merger of its Indian unit with Zee Entertainment, more than two years after the deal was announced, over a disagreement on who will lead the USD 10 billion entity, Bloomberg News reported on Monday.

Dollar/yen fell in US trade and was off 0.35%, with the dollar little changed against most currencies. Investors continued to digest mixed signals from Friday’s US jobs and Service sector data, but focused more on Thursday’s important inflation reading as Federal Reserve policymakers ponder how soon they can pivot to cutting rates.

The Bank of Japan is expected to be an outlier this year by lifting rates out of negative territory, though interest rates in the country are likely to remain below other major economies. Last week’s 7.6 magnitude earthquake could also hinder Japan’s economic recovery and goal to let inflation rise.

“The earthquake aftermath can push back speculation of a BoJ policy tweak later this month,” John Briggs, Global Head of Economics & Markets Strategy at NatWest Markets noted in a report on Monday.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets this week:

– Tokyo CPI Tuesday (December)

– Japan household spending Tuesday (December)

Monday’s Morning Bid Asia incorrectly stated that Japan’s December household spending and Tokyo Consumer Price Index were due on Monday. The reports are scheduled for Tuesday.

(Reporting by Alden Bentley, additional reporting by Karen Brettell)

Dollar falls as traders focus on data for Fed policy clues

NEW YORK, Jan 8 – The dollar dropped against the euro and yen on Monday as investors continued to digest last week’s mixed US economic data and looked ahead to a key inflation reading for fresh clues on when the Federal Reserve is likely to begin cutting interest rates.

The greenback initially bounced on Friday after data showed that US employers hired 216,000 workers in December, above economists’ expectations in a Reuters poll, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, which was also above expectations.

The US currency then dropped, however, as investors focused on some underlying factors in the jobs report that showed less strength. It declined further after a separate report showed the US services sector slowed considerably in December, with a measure of employment dropping to the lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years.

“Friday’s nonfarm payroll data was kind of a mixed bag. The headline number was definitely quite high and good, but there were a lot of subsets to that data point that showed some larger weakness in the labor market as well,” said Helen Given, FX trader at Monex USA in Washington.

“There are definitely cracks slowing down the pace of labor hiring in the US and the labor market is definitely loosening,” she added.

The release on Thursday of the consumer price inflation report for December will be the main piece of economic data this week. It is expected to show headline inflation rose 0.2% in the month and by 3.2% on an annual basis.

A New York Fed report on Monday showed that US consumers’ projection of inflation over the short run fell to the lowest level in nearly three years in December.

A drop in inflation closer to the Fed’s 2% annual target would make it more likely that the US central bank will cut rates in the coming months.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in rate cuts beginning in March, though the odds of a move that soon have fallen. Traders now see a 64% chance of a rate reduction in March, down from 89% a week ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Some analysts see the Fed as most likely to make its first cut in order to avoid the gap between the federal funds rate and inflation widening too far, as such a scenario would tighten economic conditions more than policymakers intend.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday that with inflation still above the central bank’s target, his bias is for monetary policy to remain tight even though overall risks in the economy have become balanced between those posed by rising prices and those posed by slower employment growth.

RATE-CUT EXPECTATIONS

The dollar index was last down 0.23% at 102.21, after gaining 1% last week, the most in six months.

The index hit a five-month low of 100.61 on Dec. 28. But with other major central banks including the European Central Bank and Bank of England also expected to cut rates this year, some analysts see significant further weakness in the US currency as unlikely this year.

The euro rose 0.19% to USD 1.09595. The greenback fell 0.35% to 144.10 Japanese yen.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to be an outlier this year by lifting rates out of negative territory, though interest rates in the country are likely to remain below those of its global peers.

The timing of any hike may also be pushed back after Japan last week suffered a 7.6 magnitude earthquake in the western Noto peninsula.

“The earthquake aftermath can push back speculation of a BOJ policy tweak later this month,” John Briggs, global head of economics and markets strategy at NatWest Markets, noted in a report on Monday.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin jumped 7.1% to USD 47,065, the highest level since April 2022. The US Securities and Exchange Commission is due to decide whether to approve bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Alun John in London; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Paul Simao)

Gold retreats to three-week low ahead of US inflation data

Jan 8 – Gold prices fell to a three-week low on Monday, pressured by elevated Treasury yields as expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut faded, with investors looking ahead to this week’s US inflation data for more clarity.

Spot gold was down 0.9% at USD 2,028.03 per ounce by 2:25 p.m. ET (1925 GMT) after touching its lowest price since Dec. 18 earlier in the session.

US gold futures settled 0.8% lower at USD 2033.5.

The release on Friday of data showing the US added more jobs in December than expected by economists in a Reuters poll prompted some doubts in financial markets that the US central bank would start cutting interest rates in March.

“Maybe that takes some of the rate-cut odds off the table or lowers them to some degree,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield remained above 4% on Monday.

The market currently sees a 69% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s March 19-20 policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The US government is scheduled to release its monthly consumer price index report on Thursday.

“If and when a recession becomes apparent, the Fed can be expected to cut rates, likely weakening the dollar and benefiting the dollar gold price,” Heraeus Metals said in a note.

Spot silver was down 0.4% at USD 23.08 per ounce and platinum fell 1.5% to USD 945.78.

Palladium lost 2.8% to USD 997.93, falling for a tenth straight session.

“In aggregate, price risk remains to the downside for palladium for 2024, and it is likely that the price will slip back below USD 1,000/oz at some point this year,” Heraeus Metals said.

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Paul Simao and Maju Samuel)

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