Dollar plummets on tariff turmoil, US data

The dollar index experienced its largest decline in more than two years on Thursday, reaching a six-month low as risk sentiment deteriorated following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs and a batch of underwhelming US economic data.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said there is no chance Trump will back off tariffs and that the administration is talking with trading partners on reducing tariffs if rules allow for more imports of US products.

Responses to the tariffs were mixed. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum celebrated the preferential tariff treatment under the prior USMCA agreement and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a limited set of counter measures.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU was prepared to respond with countermeasures if talks with Washington failed, while French President Emmanuel Macron called for responses “industry by industry,” adding that European companies should suspend planned investment in the United States. Spain offered its companies a financial package of loans and direct aid to weather the impact of the tariffs.

Switzerland’s government called the US tariffs calculations incomprehensible, with the Swiss finance minister later saying the country does not manipulate the franc to boost exports. Britain said it believed a trade deal with the United States was close.

In data, the ISM’s nonmanufacturing PMI fell to a below-forecast 50.8 last month, with employment contracting for the first time in six months.

Weekly jobless claims fell for the week ended March 29 though continuing claims rose to the highest level since November 2021.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that planned layoffs surged to the highest level in over four years in March. The employment data comes ahead of Friday’s US jobs report for last month. The median forecast for non-farm payrolls is 135K.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he is inclined to leave the US central bank’s policy rate at its currently modestly restrictive level while keeping a close eye on what happens with jobs and prices.

EUR/USD surged to a six-month high of 1.1144 before trimming gains amid US corporate offers and profit-taking. The pair looks to test the 1.1214 September 2024 high as bulls reengage though its entering overbought territory. Near-term support is at the 1.0954 March 18 high.

ECB board member Peter Kazimir said US tariffs are to a large extent factored into worse-case scenarios of the European Central Bank’s forecasts.

USD/CHF’s slide puts it on pace for its worst decline since June 2022 even after the country reported a scant 0.3% annualized rise in consumer prices in March.

GBP/USD’s rise was not as robust at its G10 peers, with gains stalling near the 1.32 level. The March 19 high of 1.3010 offers near-term support, while a drop below its 21-day moving average at 1.2949 would help neutralize bulls. EUR/GBP rose to a three-week high as the euro outperformed several of its counterparts.

USD/JPY tumbled to a new year-to-date low of 145.19 after the US data before settling near 146 as shorts covered.

Overnight volatility sits at 23% ahead of the US jobs report. A move above 146.55, its prior year-to-date low, the lower Bollinger and the August 5 high, would help to slow downward momentum.

USD/CNH was down 0.2% after Fitch downgraded China’s sovereign credit rating. Some favor owning AUD/CNH as regional growth concerns play out.

Treasury yields were down 6 to 18 basis points as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up about 5 basis points at +28.2bp.

The S&P 500 sank about 4% and oil plummeted 6.6%.

Gold slid 1% as it pulled back from a record while global demand worries sent copper down 3.8%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +1.67%, USD/JPY -1.93%, GBP/USD +0.68%, AUD/USD +0.57%, =USD -1.05%, EUR/JPY -0.24%, GBP/JPY -1.24%, AUD/JPY -1.27%.

(Editing by Burton Frierson
Reporting by Robert Fullem)

Oil dives more than 6%, steepest fall in 3 years

HOUSTON – Oil prices swooned on Thursday to settle with their steepest percentage loss since 2022, after OPEC+ agreed to a surprise increase in output the day after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new import tariffs

Brent futures settled at USD 70.14 a barrel, down USD 4.81, or 6.42%. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at USD 66.95 a barrel, down USD 4.76, or 6.64%.

Brent was on course for its biggest percentage drop since August 1, 2022, and WTI its biggest since July 11, 2022.

At a ministers’ meeting on Thursday, OPEC+ countries agreed to advance their plan for oil output hikes, now aiming to return 411,000 barrels per day to the market in May, up from 135,000 bpd initially planned.

“The economy and oil demand are inextricably linked,” said Angie Gildea, KPMG US energy leader.

“Markets are still digesting tariffs, but the combination of increased oil production and a weaker global economic outlook puts downward pressure on oil prices – potentially marking a new chapter in a volatile market.”

Oil prices were already trading some 4% lower prior to the meeting, with investors worried Trump’s tariffs would escalate a global trade war, curtail economic growth and limit fuel demand.

Trump on Wednesday unveiled a 10% minimum tariff on most goods imported to the US, the world’s biggest oil consumer, with much higher duties on products from dozens of countries.

Imports of oil, gas and refined products were exempted from the new tariffs, the White House said on Wednesday.

UBS analysts on Wednesday cut their oil forecasts by USD 3 per barrel over 2025-26 to USD 72 per barrel.

Traders and analysts now expect more price volatility in the near term, given the tariffs may change as countries try to negotiate lower rates or impose retaliatory levies.

“Countermeasures are imminent and judging by the initial market reaction, recession and stagflation have become terrifying possibilities,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

“As tariffs are ultimately paid for by domestic consumers and businesses, their cost will inevitably increase, impeding the rise in economic wealth,” Varga said

Further weighing on market sentiment, US Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday showed US crude inventories rose by a surprisingly large 6.2 million barrels last week, against analysts’ forecasts for a decline of 2.1 million barrels.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Robert Harvey in London, Siyi Liu in Singapore, Nicole Jao in New York and Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Christian Schmollinger, Christopher Cushing, Ed Osmond, Jan Harvey, Tomasz Janowski and Joe Bavier)

What direction will the trade war take? Watch the yuan: McGeever

ORLANDO, Florida – What’s the most important exchange rate in the world right now? Probably dollar/yuan.

How Beijing responds to the eye-popping tariffs the Trump administration slapped on Chinese exports to the US will be critical not only for China, but also for its ‘plus one’ trading partners in Asia, and world markets more broadly.

The total tariff rate on US imported goods from China is now a whopping 54%. If maintained for a reasonable length of time, this will be a financial hit to Beijing that will likely hinder its efforts to address its lingering real estate crisis, boost consumption, build its military might, and fund its myriad investments.

And, unlike in the first Trump trade war, China can’t rely on funneling exports and investment through ‘plus one’ countries in Asia to mitigate the tariff shock because those nations have also been hit with punitive levies. In some cases, like Vietnam, the tariffs are even higher than China’s.

That leaves currency devaluation as perhaps the most powerful weapon China can wield as it looks to respond to Washington’s latest salvo. But unfortunately for Beijing, that strategy is fraught with risk.

Limited room to maneuver

A rapid fall in the yuan’s value could trigger huge capital flight as international and domestic investors pull money out of the country, slamming domestic asset prices and stoking financial market volatility.

And beyond China’s borders, a tumbling yuan could force other Asian countries to let their currencies fall in order to maintain competitiveness, potentially sparking a ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ FX devaluation war, the last thing any of them need.

Moreover, currency devaluation runs counter to the sweep of reforms and stimulus measures Beijing has announced since September, as it seeks to reflate the economy via domestic consumption rather than exports.

And China’s room for further policy stimulus is already fading. Further interest rate cuts and liquidity provisions will probably come, but a major fiscal boost will involve issuing more bonds, which will strain an already widening budget deficit.

Indeed, Fitch downgraded China’s credit rating on Thursday by one notch to ‘A’, citing a deterioration in the public finances as Beijing scrambles to shore up tariff-hit growth.

“Everything now depends on China,” says Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, warning that a meaningful devaluation of the yuan could begin a global ‘risk-off’ downward spiral that could slam emerging markets and, if it persists, tank the US economy as well.

All eyes on China

Beijing has previously said it won’t go down the FX depreciation road, preferring to keep the yuan relatively “stable”. But that was before Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day”.

Beijing’s first response might be to try and negotiate with Washington to get the tariffs lowered. But if that fails, FX devaluation becomes a real option to offset the shock.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs are among those who believe China will continue to resist “significant” FX depreciation, but they note that the combined impact of all the US tariffs on China announced since Trump’s inauguration in January could take a 1.7 percentage point bite out of China’s annual growth rate. That’s huge.

What do the FX markets think? You should never read too much into one day’s moves. But it’s worth noting that dollar/yuan on Thursday clocked its biggest spot market rise in five months, and the People’s Bank of China allowed the yuan to depreciate the most in four months at the daily fixing.

Moving forward, the big level to watch for spot dollar/yuan is 7.35, and 7.25 for the central bank’s daily fixing. Breaking through those would leave the yuan at its weakest point against the US dollar since the depths of the Global Financial Crisis in late 2008.

The yuan isn’t too far away from these levels right now. The world is watching.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)

Dollar moves higher against the yen as Trump announces tariffs

The dollar weakened against the euro and turned higher against the yen on Wednesday as US President Donald Trump began a long-awaited announcement of sweeping new tariffs that look certain to escalate a trade war with global partners, increase prices, and upend a decades-old trade order.

In late trade after Trump reiterated that the United States would impose 25% tariffs on foreign-made autos, the euro extended a rise to USD 1.0895, up 0.92%, while the dollar turned 0.38% higher against the yen to 150.20 yen.

(Reporting by Alden Bentley)

Oil prices fall into negative territory as Trump announces new tariffs

NEW YORK – Oil prices fell to negative territory after rising by a dollar in post-settlement trade on Wednesday as US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on trading partners, stoking concerns that a global trade war may dampen demand for crude.

Brent futures settled 46 cents higher, or 0.6%, at USD 74.95 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 51 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at USD 71.71.

US futures rose by a dollar and then turned negative, along with the Brent contract, over the course of Trump’s press conference on Wednesday afternoon in which he announced tariffs on trading partners including the European Union, China and South Korea.

For weeks, Trump has touted April 2 as “Liberation Day,” bringing new duties that could rattle the global trade system.

A chart listing countries and tariffs that Trump showed during his announcement did not detail tariffs on Canada and Mexico. However, USMCA-compliant goods from Mexico and Canada, including oil, would remain exempt from the tariffs, a senior official told Reuters.

Canada supplies some 4 million barrels per day of its crude oil to the United States.

Trump’s tariff policies could stoke inflation, slow economic growth, and escalate trade disputes, possibilities that have limited oil price gains.

“Crude prices have paused last month’s rally, with Brent finding some resistance above USD 75, with the focus for now turning from a sanctions-led reduction in supply to Trump’s tariff announcement and its potential negative impact on growth and demand,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Comments from Mexico eased some worries about a trade war between the two countries after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Wednesday that Mexico does not plan to impose tit-for-tat tariffs on the United States.

“Oil is selling off a little on the news, and it could introduce some additional trade and economic uncertainties, but I think people were worried it would be more extreme,” said Josh Young, chief investment officer at Bison Interests, following Trump’s tariff announcement.

Trump has also threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil, and on Monday, he toughened sanctions on Iran as part of his administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign to cut its exports.

Adding to the complex global supply picture, Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter, on Wednesday imposed restrictions on another major oil export route, suspending a mooring at the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk a day after restricting loadings from a key Caspian pipeline.

Russia produces about 9 million barrels of oil a day, or just under a tenth of global production. Its ports also ship oil from neighbouring Kazakhstan.

Meanwhile, investors on Wednesday shrugged off mostly bearish US government crude inventory data. US crude inventories posted a surprisingly large build of about 6.2 million barrels last week, Energy Information Administration data showed.

“The report was bearish in my view, with larger crude inventories and total petroleum inventories rising,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. “But the market took it as neutral, as the crude build is driven by a sharp increase in Canadian crude imports, likely ahead of the fear of the introduction of new tariffs.”

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly, Laila Kearney, and Shariq Khan in New York, Liz Hampton in Denver, Trixie Yap in Singapore, and Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Paul Carsten in London and Georgina McCartney in Houston; Editing by David Goodman, Joe Bavier, Kevin Liffey, Nia Williams, Will Dunham, Deepa Babington, and Cynthia Osterman)

Gold prices extend rise after Trump unveils tariff plans

Gold prices extended gains on Wednesday to hover near all-time highs, boosted by safe-haven inflows after US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs that would escalate a trade war.

Spot gold was up 0.6% at USD 3,129.46 an ounce at 04:53 p.m. EDT (2053 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.6% higher at USD 3,166.20.

“The reciprocal tariffs are much more aggressive than expected, which should lead to asset market selloffs and a lower dollar,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

“Gold’s prospects are excellent here with USD 3,200 the new short-term target. There are plenty of unanswered questions and the sense that many things might be negotiable will make markets very volatile in the short term,” he added.

Trump said on Wednesday that he would impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States and higher duties on some of the country’s biggest trading partners, in a move that ratchets up a trade war that he kicked off on his return to the White House.

Trump displayed a poster that listed reciprocal tariffs, including 34% on China and 20% on the European Union, as a response to duties put on US goods.

Gold, often used as a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty, has risen more than USD 500 so far in 2025, and hit a record peak of USD 3,148.88 on Tuesday.

“A breach of resistance at USD 3,147.41/USD 3,149.84 would bode well for a push to USD 3,200, and lend confidence to bullish outlooks that highlight USD 3,300 and USD 3,500,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

The dollar index slipped 0.4% following Trump’s tariff announcement, making gold less expensive for other currency holders.

Meanwhile, the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday showed US private payrolls growth accelerated in March. The biggest jobs data this week will come on Friday with the release of the monthly US employment report.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.7% to USD 33.99 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.7% to USD 986.18 and palladium was down 0.8% to USD 975.93.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru. Editing by Paul Simao, Mark Potter, Krishna Chandra Eluri, and Alan Barona)

Yields fall as Trump announces reciprocal tariffs

US Treasury yields fell on Wednesday and two-year yields were the lowest in three weeks after US President Donald Trump said he is imposing reciprocal tariffs to match duties put on US goods by other countries.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes was last down 2.7 basis points on the day at 4.129%. The 2-year note yield fell 0.9 basis points to 3.854%.

The yield curve measuring the gap between two-year and 10-year notes was last at 27.1 basis points.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell)

Gold pauses for breath after record run on safe-haven demand

Gold prices eased on Tuesday on profit-taking but remained near record highs as investors turned to the safe-haven asset ahead of President Donald Trump’s planned announcement of sweeping tariffs on countries that have a trade imbalance with the US

Spot gold was down 0.3% at USD 3,113.43 per ounce as of 1:46 p.m. ET (1746 GMT), after hitting an all-time high of USD 3,148.88 earlier in the day.

US gold futures settled 0.1% lower at USD 3,146.

It’s “not surprising to see a little bit of profit taking, particularly given that the market had become rather overbought … I don’t really see much of a change in the fundamentals … it’s a perfect storm for gold,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Markets and consumers are waiting for details of Trump’s planned tariffs, set to be announced on Wednesday. White House aides have drafted plans for tariffs of around 20% on most US imports, the Washington Post reported Tuesday.

Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, closed out its strongest quarter since 1986 on Monday, and climbed over USD 3,100/ounce, marking one of the most significant upswings in the precious metal’s history.

Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US recession to 35% from 20% on Monday, and said it expected more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Non-yielding bullion thrives in a low-interest-rate environment.

“We continue to see the gold prices moving higher,” due in part to increasing gold holdings by physically backed ETFs and robust central bank purchases, said Ryan McIntyre, senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management.

On a technical basis, gold’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above 70, indicating the metal is overbought.

Job openings fell to 7.568 million by the end of February, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a Tuesday report, compared with economists’ expectation of 7.616 million. Investors are also awaiting Friday’s non-farm payrolls report for cues on the Fed’s rate cut trajectory.

Silver fell 1.4% to USD 33.6 an ounce, platinum was down 0.8% at USD 984.64. Palladium fell 0.2% to USD 981.0.

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Ishaan Arora; Editing by David Evans, Vijay Kishore, and Shreya Biswas)

How hedge funds have positioned for Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’

LONDON – Hedge funds have scaled back risky bets and sought safety, data from Goldman Sachs shows, ahead of this week’s widely anticipated announcement by US President Donald Trump on reciprocal tariffs that have fueled trade war fears.

Trump has for weeks flagged April 2 as a “Liberation Day” delivery date for his most ambitious actions yet to upend more than half a century of global trade norms, which saw barriers to international commerce fall, but in ways the president believes disadvantaged American goods and workers.

White House aides have drafted plans for tariffs of about 20% on most of the USD 3 trillion of goods imported annually to the US, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday.

Higher tariffs and lower earnings estimates are likely to shrink the S&P 500’s three-month returns by 5%, but US markets should recover over the next year, a Goldman client note on Monday and seen by Reuters on Tuesday showed.

Here’s what Goldman Sachs prime brokerage says about hedge fund positioning. A prime brokerage desk lends money to hedge funds for trading and tracks their activities.

1/ RETREAT

Hedge funds have reduced their net exposure across all regions, especially in Europe, followed by emerging markets and Asia.

The amount traded on transparent and non-transparent stock exchanges trended lower in March, shows data from BMLL Technologies, bar a large options expiry on March 21. Such dates often see larger volumes traded as the derivatives that trade off their prices are closed.

2/ AVOID EMERGING MARKETS

Hedge funds have sold out of major emerging markets.

And so far this year, they have maintained more short than long positions in emerging market stocks in Latin America and Asia.

In Asia, stocks have been particularly sold in large amounts in March, Goldman Sachs data showed. A short position expects an asset price to decline, a long bet hopes it will rise.

3/ CYCLING OUT OF CYCLICALS

Hedge funds have cut their positions in stocks whose performance is closely tied to the economic cycle. These companies, like auto-parts manufacturers, some jewelry brands, and home furnishing stores typically struggle when consumers have less money to spend.

That move coincides with increased concern that tariffs are raising US recession risks.

4/ U-TURN

Hedge funds have started selling European auto stocks, having snapped them up until early March, the Goldman data showed.

Speculators have piled into short positions on the sector since Trump last week made public a plan to implement a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks from April 3. A duty on auto parts begins on May 3.

The ratio of long positions compared to short bets against the auto sector are close to historic lows, said Goldman.

5/ METAL HEADS

Hedge funds have been net buyers in large amounts in recent weeks of company stocks that are sensitive to metals prices, said Goldman.

Hedge fund holdings in these names are at multi-year highs said the note. The note did not mention company names.

(Reporting by Nell Mackenzie; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Barbara Lewis)

Oil eases off five-week highs as traders weigh impact of imminent Trump tariffs

NEW YORK – Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as traders braced for reciprocal tariffs that US President Donald Trump is due to announce on Wednesday, which could intensify a global trade war.

However, Trump’s threats to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil and to attack Iran fueled supply worries, limiting losses.

Brent futures settled down 28 cents, or 0.37%, at USD 74.49 a barrel. The session high was above USD 75 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 28 cents, or 0.39%, to USD 71.20.

On Monday, the contracts settled at five-week highs.

The White House provided no details about the size and scope of tariffs that it confirmed Trump will impose on Wednesday.

“The market is getting a little jittery with less than 24 hours to go,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. “We may lose some Mexican, Venezuela, and Canadian supplies, but there is definitely a chance that demand destruction could outpace those barrels,” he added.

A Reuters poll of 49 economists and analysts in March projected that oil prices would remain under pressure this year from US tariffs and economic slowdowns in India and China, while OPEC+ increases supply.

Slower global growth would dent fuel demand, which might offset any reduction in supply due to Trump’s threats.

“While stricter sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, and Russia could constrain global supply, the US tariffs are likely to dampen global energy demand and slow economic growth, which in turn will affect oil demand further out on the curve,” SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye said. “As a result, betting on a clear direction for the market has been – and remains – challenging.”

Trump on Sunday said he would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on Russian oil buyers if Moscow tried to block efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Tariffs on buyers of oil from Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter, would disrupt global supply and hurt Moscow’s biggest customers, China and India.

Trump threatened Iran with similar tariffs and also with bombings if Tehran did not reach an agreement with the White House over its nuclear program.

Prices found some support after Russia ordered Kazakhstan’s main oil export terminal to close two of its three moorings amid a standoff between Kazakhstan and OPEC+ – the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus allies led by Russia – over excess production.

Kazakhstan will have to start cutting oil output as a result, two industry sources told Reuters. Another source said repair work at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal will take more than a month.

The market will watch an April 5 OPEC+ ministerial committee meeting to review policy. Sources told Reuters OPEC+ was on track to proceed with a production hike of 135,000 barrels per day in May. OPEC+ had agreed to a similar hike in production for April.

Meanwhile, five analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated on average that US crude inventories fell by about 2.1 million barrels in the week to March 28.

(Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar in London, Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by Jan Harvey, David Gregorio, and Leslie Adler)

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