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Archives: Reuters Articles

Dollar on back foot as traders eye series of Fed rate cuts

Dollar on back foot as traders eye series of Fed rate cuts

TOKYO – The dollar traded near a 2-1/2 month low against the euro and close to a 10-month trough versus the risk-sensitive Aussie on Tuesday as investors cemented bets for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week and more to follow.

The greenback changed hands just shy of a more than two-month low on the British A pound, with US President Donald Trump renewing calls for aggressive monetary easing.

Markets see a rate reduction of at least 25 basis points on Wednesday as a certainty, with a small chance of a super-sized 50 basis-point cut. A total of 67 basis points of reductions are seen over the rest of this year, rising to 81 basis points by end-January.

Trump in a social media post on Monday called on Powell to enact a “bigger” cut to benchmark interest rates in a social media post, pointing to the housing market.

Rapidly softening labour market data has been the key driver of the ramp-up in easing bets in recent weeks, resulting in a lower dollar and bond yields while pushing up equity prices, with Wall Street setting new records on Monday.

There is an “increasing view that the Fed is behind the curve and needing to ramp up the urgency to take rates to neutral,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

“The weight of capital is moving ever closer to a consensus position that the Fed cut rates not only in the September meeting, but also in October and December, and possibly in January too.”

The euro was little changed early in Asia’s morning, changing hands at USD 1.1765, not far from last Tuesday’s high of USD 1.1780, a level that had not been seen since July 28.

Sterling was steady at USD 1.3605 after reaching USD 1.3621 in the previous session for the first time since July 8.

The Australian dollar held firm at USD 0.6672, right below Monday’s high of USD 0.6674, the highest since November 8.

The US dollar was flat at 147.42 yen.

(Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Sam Holmes)

 

Oil holds gains as investors eye impact from attacks on Russian energy facilities

Oil holds gains as investors eye impact from attacks on Russian energy facilities

SINGAPORE – Oil prices were little changed on Monday as investors assessed the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries that could disrupt its crude and fuel exports, while also eyeing US fuel-demand growth.

Brent crude futures edged up 3 cents to USD 67.02 a barrel by 0009 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at USD 62.77 a barrel, up 8 cents.

Both contracts gained more than 1% last week as Ukraine stepped up attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including the largest oil exporting terminal Primorsk and the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery, one of the two largest refineries in Russia.

“The attack suggests a growing willingness to disrupt international oil markets, which has the potential to add upside pressure on oil prices,” JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said in a note, referring to the attack on Primorsk.

Primorsk has a capacity to load about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude, making it a key export hub for Russian oil and the largest port in western Russia.

The Kirishi refinery, operated by Surgutneftegaz, processes about 17.7 million metric tons per year (355,000 bpd) of Russian crude, or 6.4% of the country’s total.

An oil company in Russia’s Bashkortostan region will maintain production levels despite a drone attack on Saturday, regional governor Radiy Khabirov said.

Pressure is mounting on Russia as US President Donald Trump reiterated on Sunday that he is willing to impose sanctions on Russia but Europe has to act in a way that is commensurate with the United States.

“Europe is buying oil from Russia. I don’t want them to buy oil,” Trump told reporters on Sunday. “And the sanctions … that they’re putting on are not tough enough, and I’m willing to do sanctions, but they’re going to have to toughen up their sanctions commensurate with what I’m doing.”

Investors are also watching US-China trade talks in Madrid that started on Sunday amid Washington’s demands that its allies place tariffs on imports from China over its purchases of Russian oil.

Last week, softer job-creation data and rising inflation in the US raised concerns about economic growth in the world’s largest economy and oil consumer even as the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates during its September 16-17 meeting.

(Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

 

Nasdaq notches record high close, traders look to Fed meeting

Nasdaq notches record high close, traders look to Fed meeting

The Nasdaq notched a record high close on Friday in a mixed trading session, lifted by Microsoft as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week, when it is widely expected to cut interest rates to counter a slowdown in the jobs market.

Fueled by Tesla and other technology-related stocks, the Nasdaq added to a rally in the previous session that saw all three indexes hit all-time highs.

Investors are laser-focused on the Fed’s meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Traders expect the central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points after recent data showed longstanding weakness in hiring and easing inflation concerns.

“Because we had such a nice jump in the stock market yesterday, investors are basically catching their breath,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist CFRA Research. “There’s really not going to be any data between now and Wednesday. It’s a sort of wait-and-see attitude.”

Microsoft gained 1.8% after the technology giant avoided a possible hefty EU antitrust fine by offering customers reduced prices for Office products excluding Teams.

Tesla jumped 7.4% after board chair Robyn Denholm dismissed concerns that CEO Elon Musk’s political activity had hurt sales at the electric-vehicle maker and said the billionaire was “front and center” at the company after several months at the White House. With Friday’s surge, Tesla shares remain down 2% in 2025.

Declines in Goldman Sachs and paint-maker Sherwin-Williams kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average in negative territory. The S&P 500 declined marginally.

The University of Michigan’s survey showed US consumer sentiment fell for a second straight month in September as consumers saw rising risks to business conditions, the labor market and inflation.

The S&P 500 declined 0.05% to end the session at 6,584.29 points.

The Nasdaq gained 0.45% to 22,141.10 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.59% to 45,834.22 points.

Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes declined, led lower by health care, down 1.13%, followed by a 0.97% loss in materials.

Following signs of a worsening jobs market, interest rate futures reflect expectations of cuts totaling 75 basis points by the end of the year.

For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, the Dow climbed almost 1% and the Nasdaq added 2%, helped by a revival in artificial intelligence trade after cloud computing giant Oracle’s strong forecast on Tuesday.

Warner Bros Discovery jumped 17%, extending a surge from Wednesday, when a source said Paramount Skydance was preparing a bid for the struggling media company.

Shares of vaccine makers fell after a report said US health officials are planning to link coronavirus vaccines to the deaths of 25 children. Moderna declined 7.4%, while Pfizer and Novavax both lost more than 3%.

Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 by a 3.3-to-one ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 22 new highs and 3 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 106 new highs and 43 new lows.

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal and Ragini Mathur in Bengaluru and by Noel Randewich in San Francisco; Editing by Maju Samuel)

 

Wall St Week Ahead: Investors seek Fed’s view of shaky labor market as rate cut looms

Wall St Week Ahead: Investors seek Fed’s view of shaky labor market as rate cut looms

NEW YORK – Investors will look for the Federal Reserve to communicate how worried it is about the flagging US labor market at its meeting next week, and they expect the central bank to cut interest rates for the first time in nine months to shore up employment.

On Thursday, inflation data came in slightly hotter than expected. Still, market players did not expect this would dissuade the Fed from easing rates on Wednesday, following several downbeat reports about US job growth.

More in doubt was the size of next week’s cut and how much the Fed expects to decrease rates in the coming months.

With some recent stability in trade and fiscal policy, “the Fed has moved back onto the front burner for investors going forward,” said Chris Fasciano, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network.

“Now that the labor market is weakening, the Fed becomes the dominant story for investors as to how they address that,” Fasciano said.

Expectations that the Fed will reduce interest rates have helped lift the major US stock indexes to record highs, along with excitement over the potential of artificial intelligence, strong corporate earnings, and calming fears about the economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The benchmark S&P 500 is up 12% so far in 2025.

As of Thursday, Fed fund futures indicated that markets were expecting a 90% chance that the Fed would lower rates by 25 basis points in next Wednesday’s policy decision, according to LSEG data. The balance of expectations left about a 10% chance for a larger-than-standard 50 bp cut.

Of the 55 rate reductions in the fed funds rate since 1990, 60% of those have been 25 basis point cuts, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.

Of the 18 times the Fed has cut by 50 bps, all but one occurred during or just after recessions, Colas said in a research note. The one exception was in September 2024, which was the first of three cuts totaling 100 basis points last year, resulting in the current rate of 4.25%-4.5%.

“Based on this history, which both the Fed and markets know, a 50 basis point cut would signal that the (Fed) is worried about the near future of the US economy,” Colas said in the note.

As it stands, Fed fund futures were baking in expectations of 73 basis points of easing by December or nearly three standard cuts. The central bank on Wednesday will give its latest summary of economic projections, updating its view of the economy and monetary policy.

As the Fed has held steady on rates so far in 2025, Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have expressed wariness about Trump’s import tariffs possibly leading to higher inflation as a reason for forestalling rate cuts. Data on Thursday showed the consumer price index rose 2.9% on an annual basis in August, including the biggest monthly rise since January.

While the Fed has a dual mandate to ensure stable prices and maximum employment, investors will want to hear that the central bank is primarily focused on supporting the labor market, said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at PNC Financial Services Group. After back-to-back weak monthly US employment reports, a government revision this week showed the economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated.

“Those job revisions are just so extraordinary that they demand attention,” Ma said. Markets want to hear that “there’s a clear and pervasive shift to making sure that that weakness doesn’t become worse.”

Wall Street will also focus on technology shares and the AI trade after Wednesday’s 36% surge in shares of Oracle pushed the company’s market value close to USD 1 trillion. The enterprise software maker’s stunning stock gains were fueled by a wave of multi-billion-dollar cloud deals, showing the scramble for computing power in the AI race.

The Oracle stock surge was “stunning from a market dynamic standpoint that such a large company would see a market reaction of that magnitude,” PNC’s Ma said. “It illustrates the economy and technology, and about AI, that these developments are taking place very fast.”

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Alden Bentley and David Gregorio)

 

Dollar on back foot as jobless claims firm up Fed rate cut views

Dollar on back foot as jobless claims firm up Fed rate cut views

SINGAPORE – The dollar remained under pressure on Friday as a surge in US jobless claims and a modest tick up in inflation kept investors zeroed in on likely Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next week and beyond.

The dollar index was last trading at 97.585, having snapped a two-day winning streak on Thursday and on track to record its second consecutive weekly decline.

On Thursday, data showed the biggest weekly increase in the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits in four years.

That overshadowed US consumer inflation data for August, which showed prices rising at the fastest pace in seven months but still modest and broadly in line with expectations.

While the mixed data might add some wrinkles to the Fed’s policy deliberations next week, investor focus is mostly centered on rate cut prospects for now.

“We’re quite betwixt and between, and the outlook is quite murky,” said Tim Kelleher, head of institutional FX Sales at Commonwealth Bank in Auckland. “The market is at a crossroads.”

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes edged up to 4.0282% compared with its US close of 4.011%, after a decline in yields that came close to crossing the 4% mark for the first time since April. Pricing of Fed fund futures indicates that the market believes the Fed is certain to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) on September 17 as labor market softness overshadows inflation risks.

However, traders are reining in bets on a jumbo 50 bps rate cut next month, with pricing implying a shallower path of easing before the end of the year than anticipated earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Against the yen, the dollar was trading flat at 147.27 yen, little changed after the US and Japanese governments issued a joint statement on Friday, which reaffirmed that exchange rates should be “market determined” and that excess volatility and disorderly moves in exchange rates were undesirable.

The euro stood at USD 1.1727, depreciating 0.1% so far in Asia as traders curbed their bets on another European Central Bank rate cut this cycle, now seeing another move as a coin toss, after the bank sounded sanguine about the economic outlook.

Euro zone rate setters kept their key interest rate on hold at 2% for a second straight meeting, with ECB chief Christine Lagarde saying that the bank remains in a “good place” and said risks to the economy had become more balanced than before.

The Australian dollar was last trading 0.1% firmer at USD 0.6665, holding steady near a 10-month high, while the kiwi slipped 0.1% to USD 0.5971.

Sterling traded at USD 1.3572, slipping 0.1%, while the offshore yuan was last at 7.1135 yuan per dollar, trading flat.

(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Sam Holmes)

Gold set for fourth weekly rise as US data lifts rate-cut hopes

Gold set for fourth weekly rise as US data lifts rate-cut hopes

Gold prices rose on Friday and were headed for a fourth consecutive weekly gain, as fears of a weakening US labor market eclipsed inflation concerns ahead of an expected Federal Reserve rate cut next week.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold rose 0.1% to USD 3,637.06 per ounce as of 0059 GMT. Bullion gained 1.4% so far this week.

* US gold futures for December delivery were steady at USD 3,674.20.

* US consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, the steepest monthly rise in seven months, driven by higher housing and food costs, while data on Wednesday showed an unexpected decline in US producer prices in August.

* Weekly jobless claims surged last week, underscoring a material softening in labour market conditions after the US government said nonfarm payrolls may have been overstated by 911,000 jobs in the 12 months through March.

* This followed Friday’s employment report, which showed job growth nearly stalled in August.

* The Fed is expected to lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points on September 17 as labour market softness overshadows inflation risks, said almost all 107 economists in a Reuters poll, with most expecting another cut next quarter.

* US 10-year Treasury yields hovered near 4-month lows, while the US dollar index was headed for a weekly decline.

* Greenback-priced bullion, which hit a record high of USD 3,673.95 on Tuesday, is often considered a hedge against inflation and uncertainties and tends to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment.

* Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s administration on Thursday asked a federal appeals court to allow Trump to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from office for now after a judge said he likely lacked cause to do so.

* Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.2% to USD 41.48 per ounce, platinum steadied at USD 1,378.40 and palladium held ground at USD 1,188.34. All three metals were set for a weekly rise.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
0600 Germany HICP Final YY August
0600 UK GDP Est 3M/3M July
0600 UK GDP Estimate MM, YY July
0600 UK Services MM, YY July
0600 UK Manufacturing Output MM July
0645 France CPI (EU Norm) Final MM, YY August
0645 France CPI MM, YY NSA August
1400 US U Mich Sentiment Prelim September

 

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy)

 

Wall Street indexes post record-high closes; Tesla and Micron rally

Wall Street indexes post record-high closes; Tesla and Micron rally

Wall Street’s main indexes notched record-high closes on Thursday following gains in Tesla and Micron Technology, while US inflation and jobless data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.

US consumer prices rose more than expected in August and the annual increase in inflation was the largest in seven months.

In a separate reading, initial jobless claims for the week ended September 6 stood at 263,000, at a near four-year high.

“Inflation has been sticky … Whether we would call it stagflation or not, people have different definitions of it. But certainly we are in a period that is unusual relative to the last several years, as the job market is slowing down considerably while inflation does not follow suit,” said Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer at Moody’s Ratings in New York.

Sheth predicted the Fed will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points next week, and another 25 basis points by year-end.

Futures trading indicates traders are certain the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its policy meeting next week, with about a 7% chance of a deeper 50 basis point cut.

That follows a series of bleak labor market datasets and Wednesday’s cooler-than-expected producer inflation reading.

Tesla climbed 6% and helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high, with gains of more than 1% in JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs Group.

Micron Technology jumped 7.5% to USD 150.55 after Citigroup raised its price target on the memory chipmaker to USD 175 from USD 150. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index rose 0.9%, also hitting an all-time high.

Warner Bros Discovery surged 29% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Paramount Skydance is preparing a majority cash bid for the struggling media company.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.85% to end the session at 6,587.47 points.

The Nasdaq gained 0.72% to 22,043.08 points, while the Dow rose 1.36% to 46,108.00 points.

Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose, led by materials, up 2.14%, followed by a 1.73% gain in health care.

Centene jumped 9% after the health insurer reaffirmed its annual profit forecast and said quality ratings for its Medicare plans were in line with expectations.

Oracle receded 6.2%, giving back some of the prior session’s 36% surge, which had added new fuel to Wall Street’s AI rally.

Delta Airlines fell 1.55% after the carrier reaffirmed its annual profit forecast.

Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones within the S&P 500 by a 6.8-to-one ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 42 new highs and 4 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 143 new highs and 42 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was heavy, with 18.2 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 16.1 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru, and by Noel Randewich in San Francisco; Editing by Pooja Desai and Maju Samuel. Additional reporting by Davide Barbuscia in New York; Editing by David Gregorio)

 

Dollar steady as inflation data and central banks take focus

Dollar steady as inflation data and central banks take focus

SINGAPORE – The dollar stabilised in early Asian trading hours on Thursday after an unexpected drop in US factory-gate prices bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week, and traders awaited US consumer price data due later in the day.

The dollar index nudged upwards to 97.822, rising for a third consecutive day after the Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.1% during August, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. The decline followed a 0.7% jump in July, which was also revised downwards.

“The market has positioned for the Fed to ease in September and potentially ease three times this year,” said Rodrigo Catril, currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney. “The benign outcome from the PPI tells you pricing expectations look about right.”

Markets are trading on expectations that the prospect of the Fed easing is a certainty and the only remaining question is by how much. Traders are pricing in an 8% chance of a jumbo 50 basis points (bps) rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting, while a cut of at least 25 bps is viewed as a done deal, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Appointments to the Fed’s rate-setting panel remained in focus, as President Donald Trump’s administration on Wednesday moved to appeal a federal judge’s ruling temporarily blocking Trump from taking the unprecedented step of firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The White House is seeking to remove her before the US central bank’s interest-rate-setting meeting next week.

Stephen Miran also moved closer to becoming a Federal Reserve governor, furthering Trump’s effort to exert more direct control over interest rate policy. The Senate Banking Committee voted to advance Miran’s nomination, though lawmakers involved said it is far from certain if the process can be completed in time for him to participate in the Fed’s September 16-17 policy meeting.

Against the yen, the dollar was trading flat at 147.41 yen, after data showing Japanese wholesale prices rose 2.7% in the year to August, accelerating from the previous month in a sign of sticky inflationary pressure in the world’s fourth-largest economy.

The euro edged upwards to USD 1.1698 EUR=EBS ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting later on Thursday, where it is widely expected to keep rates on hold. Analysts said policymakers may strike a more dovish tone to counter a fraught trade and political outlook across the continent.

The single currency is recovering from a two-day streak of declines as geopolitical tensions continue on the bloc’s Eastern flank. Poland said it shot down suspected Russian drones in its airspace on Wednesday with the backing of aircraft from its NATO allies, the first time a member of the Western military alliance is known to have fired shots during Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The Australian dollar fetched USD 0.66165, up 0.04% in early trade after hitting the highest levels since November on Wednesday, buoyed by advances for commodities including iron ore, crude oil, and gold, which is near record highs.

The offshore yuan traded at 7.1184 yuan per dollar, strengthening 0.03% in early Asian trade. The kiwi slipped 0.03% to USD 0.59375.

Sterling traded at USD 1.3527, unchanged so far on the day.

(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Jamie Freed)

 

S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch record-high closes as Oracle soars on AI optimism

S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch record-high closes as Oracle soars on AI optimism

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched record-high closes on Wednesday, as Oracle surged and cooler-than-expected inflation data supported expectations the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.

Oracle soared 36% in its biggest one-day percentage gain since 1992 after the tech company pointed to a demand surge from AI firms for its cloud services.

Its stock market value reached USD 922 billion, leapfrogging the values of Eli Lilly, JPMorgan Chase, and Walmart, and approaching Tesla’s USD 1.12 trillion market value.

Artificial intelligence-related chip stocks also rallied, with Nvidia up 3.8%, Broadcom jumping 10% and Advanced Micro Devices climbing 2.4%. The PHLX chip index rose 2.3% to a record high.

Data center power suppliers also benefited, with Constellation Energy, Vistra, and GE Vernova all rising more than 6%.

Apple, viewed by many investors as lagging in the race to dominate AI, declined 3.2%, sliding for a fourth straight session.

A cooler-than-expected producer prices reading provided additional momentum as traders shored up their bets on interest-rate cuts this year.

Recent labor market data has confirmed that the US jobs market is in a slowdown.

Traders fully expect the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its policy meeting next week, with a 10% chance the central bank could cut by 50 basis points, CME’s FedWatch tool showed.

The S&P 500 has now climbed about 11% in 2025, while the Nasdaq has rallied about 13%.

“The fundamentals remain very strong in the equity markets, domestically. But we also have to acknowledge that valuations are extended at this point and serve as some natural tension to a continued upward trajectory,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at US Bank Wealth Management in Billings, Montana.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.30% to end the session at 6,532.04 points, closing with a record high for the second straight day.

The Nasdaq gained 0.03% to 21,886.06 points for its third consecutive record-high close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.48% to 45,490.92 points.

Six of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes declined, led lower by consumer discretionary, down 1.58%, followed by a 1.06% loss in consumer staples.

Investors will now focus on consumer prices data due on Thursday, for insights on where US inflation is headed.

“Combining the softer data (PPI figures) with the Fed’s increased emphasis on the labor market side and the growing trend we’ve seen in downward revisions to the monthly employment data – all support the expectation for a rate cut,” said Jordan Rizzuto, CIO at GammaRoad Capital Partners.

In a setback for the White House, a federal judge on Tuesday temporarily blocked US President Donald Trump from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

Barclays and Deutsche Bank raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500, citing stronger corporate earnings, resilient US economic growth and optimism around artificial intelligence.

Synopsys tumbled 36% in its biggest one-day decline on record after the chip design software provider missed Wall Street estimates for quarterly revenue. Rival Cadence Design Systems fell 6.4%.

Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 by a 1.5-to-one ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 19 new highs and 8 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 112 new highs and 72 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was relatively heavy, with 17.2 billion shares traded, compared with an average of 16.0 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal and Ragini Mathur in Bengaluru, and by Noel Randewich in San Francisco; Editing by Pooja Desai and Matthew Lewis)

 

Gold prices trade above USD 3,600 on Fed rate-cut bets

Gold prices trade above USD 3,600 on Fed rate-cut bets

Gold prices hovered near a record high on Tuesday, holding firm above the USD 3,600 level, as growing expectations for a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month lifted demand for the precious metal.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was up 0.1% at USD 3,640.41 per ounce, as of 0103 GMT. Bullion rose to a record high of USD 3,646.29 on Monday.

* US gold futures for December delivery edged 0.1% higher to USD 3,682.

* US job growth weakened sharply in August and the unemployment rate increased to a nearly four-year high of 4.3%, confirming that labor market conditions were softening and sealing the case for a Fed rate cut next week.

* Traders are pricing in an 89.4% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting and a 10.6% probability of a jumbo 50-basis-point rate cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

* Lower US interest rates put pressure on the dollar and bond yields, increasing the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

* The dollar index fell to an almost seven-week low against its rivals, making gold more attractive for other currency holders, while the benchmark US 10-year yield dropped to a five-month low.

* Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is widely expected to hold rates at its policy meeting on Thursday.

* Investors are now awaiting US producer price data on Wednesday and consumer prices on Thursday for further clues on the Fed’s policy path.

* Gold prices have gained 38% so far this year, following a 27% jump in 2024, bolstered by soft dollar, strong central bank accumulation, dovish monetary settings and heightened global uncertainty.

* SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.23% to 979.68 tons on Monday from 981.97 tons on Friday

* Elsewhere, spot silver was flat at USD 41.31 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.3% to USD 1,387.20 and palladium climbed 0.8% to USD 1,142.64.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

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