Investors draw transitory vs stagflation battle lines: McGeever

ORLANDO, Florida – The fate of US financial markets this year will largely depend on whether any tariff-fueled inflation turns out to be “transitory”, enabling the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, or whether the central bank gets bogged down by the specter of “stagflation”.

The first scenario is the one Chair Jerome Powell outlined on Wednesday as the central bank’s “base case”, sparking a powerful rally on Wall Street and a sharp drop in Treasury bond yields. So it’s risk on, right?

Investors chose to ignore the second scenario, even though it is arguably the more obvious one to draw from the Fed’s revised economic projections.

Policymakers are now expecting higher inflation and meaningfully slower growth. The median interest rate ‘dot plot’ was unchanged from December, still pointing to two cuts this year, but there’s a shift underway – eight policymakers now think one cut or none at all will be appropriate this year.

So, risk off?

‘Team transitory’ may have stolen a march on ‘team stagflation’, but a lot of stars will need to align for it to emerge victorious over the long haul.

THE T-WORD

Many investors likely shuddered when Powell invoked the T-word on Wednesday, given the Fed has had to keep rates higher for longer precisely because the post-pandemic inflation surge wasn’t as transitory as Powell and then-Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had claimed.

That said, Powell is correct that the inflation caused by President Donald Trump’s 1.0 trade war was transitory. Academic studies suggest the first-round impact of Trump’s 2018 tariffs added up to 0.3 percentage points to core PCE inflation, but annual core PCE inflation in 2018 never exceeded 2% and fell in 2019.

Still, the Fed’s credibility took a beating with the post-pandemic ‘transitory’ debacle, so Powell may be leaving himself and the institution open to further attacks if any future price increases prove to be stickier than bargained for.

This is a genuine risk because Trump’s proposed tariffs are of a whole different order this time around. A Boston Fed paper last month estimated that the first-round impact of tariffs could add between 1.4 and 2.2 percentage points to core PCE.

This would have a much deeper and longer-lasting impact on inflation. Fed officials are wary. Not only did they raise their median 2025 inflation outlook, but some also raised their 2026 and 2027 projections, and 18 out of 19 believe price risks are still skewed to the upside.

STAGFLATION SPECTER

It’s also worth noting that Fed officials lowered their growth projections significantly more than they raised their inflation outlook.

The 2025 growth outlook fell to 1.7% from 2.1%, and down to 1.8% for the next two years. Granted, that’s still decent growth and nowhere near a recession, but it would mark the first back-to-back years of sub-2% expansion since 2011-12.

Moreover, 18 out of 19 Fed officials see growth risks still tilted to the downside, compared with only five in December. Even if the Fed does cut rates, it is just as likely to be in response to the economy rolling over and unemployment shooting up than anything else. Would that be ‘risk on’?

While no one is talking about a return to the 1970s, stagflation risks are rising, which hugely complicates the Fed’s reaction function. The bar for cutting rates is getting higher, and it is difficult to see how this creates a positive environment for risk-taking – that is, unless team transitory emerges victorious in the end.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

(By Jamie McGeever; editing by Diane Craft)

Oil prices rise for second consecutive week on expected tighter supply

NEW YORK – Oil prices settled higher on Friday and recorded a second consecutive weekly gain as fresh US sanctions on Iran and the latest output plan from the OPEC+ producer group raised expectations of tighter supply.

Brent crude futures rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at USD 72.16 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 21 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 68.28.

On a weekly basis, Brent rose 2.1% and WTI about 1.6%, their biggest gains since the first week of the year.

On Thursday, the US Treasury announced new Iran-related sanctions, which for the first time targeted an independent Chinese refiner among other entities and vessels involved in supplying Iranian crude oil to China.

That probably sent a message to the market that Chinese companies, the largest buyers of Iranian oil, are not immune to sanctions pressure from the US, said Scott Shelton, energy analyst at TP ICAP.

It was Washington’s fourth round of sanctions against Tehran since President Donald Trump in February promised “maximum pressure” and pledged to drive Iran’s oil exports down to zero.

The tightening US sanctions regime will probably keep some market participants involved in shipping Iranian crude more cautious going forward, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Analysts at ANZ Bank said they expect a 1 million barrels per day (bpd) reduction in Iranian crude oil exports because of tighter sanctions. Vessel tracking service Kpler estimated Iranian crude oil exports above 1.8 million bpd in February.

Oil prices were also supported by the new OPEC+ plan for seven members to cut output further to compensate for producing more than agreed levels. The plan would represent monthly cuts of between 189,000 bpd and 435,000 bpd until June 2026.

The plan likely caps the upside in OPEC+ production over the coming months, UBS’s Staunovo said.

OPEC+ this month confirmed that eight of its members would proceed with a monthly increase of 138,000 bpd from April, reversing some of the 5.85 million bpd of output cuts agreed in a series of steps since 2022 to support the market.

Oil market participants will want more proof of Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia complying with cuts announced on Thursday to gain more support from the plan, StoneX oil analyst Alex Hodes said.

Kazakhstan’s oil output has reached a record high in March on the back of oilfield expansion, further exceeding OPEC+ production quotas, two industry sources told Reuters.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan in New York and Enes Tunagur in London; Editing by David Goodman, Susan Fenton and David Gregorio)

Oil set for weekly gain on Iran sanctions, OPEC+ plan to rein in overproduction

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Friday, and were set for their second consecutive weekly gains, after fresh US sanctions on Iran and a new OPEC+ plan for seven members to cut output raised bets on tightening supply.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 climbed 42 cents, or 0.6%, to USD 72.40 per barrel by 0026 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were up 45 cents, or 0.6%, to USD 68.52 a barrel.

On a weekly basis, both Brent and WTI were on track to rise about 2%, their biggest weekly gains since the first week of 2025.

The United States Treasury on Thursday announced new Iran-related sanctions, which for the first time targeted an independent Chinese refiner among other entities and vessels involved in supplying Iranian crude oil to China.

That marked Washington’s fourth round of sanctions against Iran since US President Donald Trump in February vowed to reimpose a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran, pledging to drive the country’s oil exports to zero.

Analysts at ANZ Bank said they expect a 1 million barrels per day (bpd) reduction in Iranian crude oil exports because of tighter sanctions.

Vessel tracking service Kpler pegged Iranian crude oil exports at over 1.8 million bpd in February, cautioning that the masking of Iranian vessel activity due to sanctions could lead to revisions to those numbers.

Oil prices were also supported by a new OPEC+ plan announced Thursday for seven members to further cut output to make up for producing more than agreed levels. The plan would represent monthly cuts of between 189,000 bpd and 435,000 bpd, and will last until June 2026.

The plan will buffer all the supply increments that OPEC+ had previously announced will take effect from next month, Kpler’s head of Middle East energy Amena Bakr said in a post on social media service X.

OPEC+ earlier this month confirmed that eight of its members would proceed with a monthly increase of 138,000 bpd from April, reversing some of the 5.85 million bpd of output cuts agreed in a series of steps since 2022 to support the market.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan in New York
Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Global debt exceeds USD 100T as interest costs surge – OECD

LONDON – Outstanding government and corporate bonds globally exceeded USD 100 trillion last year, the OECD said on Thursday, with rising interest costs leaving borrowers facing tough choices and needing to prioritize productive investments.

Between 2021 and 2024, interest costs as a share of output rose from the lowest to the highest in the last 20 years. Spending by governments on interest payments reached 3.3% of GDP in its member countries, higher than what they spend on defense, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said in a global debt report.

While central banks are cutting interest rates now, borrowing costs remain much higher than before 2022’s rate hikes, so low-rate debt is continuing to be replaced and interest costs are likely to continue rising ahead.

That comes at a time when governments face big spending bills. Germany’s parliament approved a massive plan to boost infrastructure and support a broader European defense spending push this week. Long-standing costs from the green transition to ageing populations loom for major economies.

“This combination of higher costs and higher debt risks restricting capacity for future borrowing at a time when investment needs are greater than ever,” the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said in its annual debt report.

Despite their sharp rise, interest costs are still below prevailing market rates for over half of OECD countries’ and nearly a third of emerging market government debt, as well as for just under two thirds of high-grade corporate debt and for nearly three quarters of junk corporate debt, the report said.

Nearly half of the government debt of OECD countries and emerging markets and around a third of corporate debt will mature by 2027.

Low-income, high-risk countries face the greatest refinancing risks, with over half of their debt maturing in the next three years and more than 20% of it this year, the organization said.

As debt becomes more costly, governments and companies need to ensure their borrowing supports long-term growth and productivity, OECD head of capital markets and financial institutions Serdar Celik said.

“If they do it this way, we are not worried… If they don’t do it this way, if it adds additional, expensive debt, without increasing the productive capacity of the economy, then we will see more difficult times.”

Yet companies have used higher borrowing since 2008 for financial purposes like refinancing or shareholder payouts, while corporate investment has dropped since then, the OECD said.

Emerging markets dependent on foreign currency borrowing need to develop their local capital markets, the OECD said.

The report found that the costs of borrowing through dollar-denominated bonds had risen from around 4% in 2020 to more than 6% in 2024, rising to more than 8% for riskier, junk-rated economies nations. Those nations have struggled to tap domestic pools of cash due to low savings rates and shallow domestic markets.

Geopolitical tensions

The OECD said funding the net-zero emissions transition was an “immense challenge”. At current rates of investment emerging markets outside of China would face a USD 10 trillion shortfall to meet Paris climate agreement goals by 2050.

If the additional investments needed for the transition are financed publicly, it could send debt-to-GDP ratios 25 percentage points higher in advanced economies and 41 points in China by 2050. If funded privately, energy companies’ debt in emerging markets outside China would need to quadruple by 2035.

Central banks, reducing their bond holdings, have been replaced by foreign investors as well as households, which now hold 34% and 11% of OECD economies’ domestic government debt respectively, up from 29% and 5% in 2021, the OECD said.

But it warned those dynamics may not continue.

Rising geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties could lead to rapid changes in risk aversion, which could disrupt international portfolio flows, the OECD said.

(Reporting by Yoruk Bahceli; Editing by Susan Fenton and Toby Chopra)

Gold soars to record high after Fed holds rates steady, signals two cuts in 2025

Gold prices soared to an all-time high on Wednesday, following remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and as the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as anticipated, but signaled a possible reduction in borrowing costs by half a percentage point by the end of this year.

Spot gold rose 0.5% to USD 3,047.80 per ounce as of 03:57 p.m. ET (1957 GMT), after hitting an all-time high of USD 3,051.99 earlier in the session.

US gold futures settled mostly unchanged at USD 3,041.20.

“Gold rallies to another historic high after a truly virtuoso performance by Chair Powell – as stocks and bonds also rally,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

“Gold is in a bull market after surging strongly above USD 3000 and will continue to move higher on ‘elevated’ uncertainty and fear of higher inflation.”

“The market is thinking, buy gold no matter what,” he added.

The Fed maintained its policy rate between 4.25% and 4.50%. Officials adjusted their inflation outlook upward for this year, while simultaneously downgrading the forecast for economic growth, following the Trump administration’s implementation of tariffs.

Powell said on Wednesday that inflation could face delays in progress this year, partly due to tariffs from the Trump administration.

US President Donald Trump raised tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum to 25%, effective last week, and has said he intends for new reciprocal and sectoral tariffs to take effect on April 2.

Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven investment during times of inflation or economic volatility, has climbed over 15% so far this year.

Fed fund futures imply traders see a 66% chance of the Fed resuming rate cuts in the June meeting, up from 57% before the decision. Gold becomes more attractive when interest rates are low, as it is a non-yielding asset.

On the geopolitical front, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of violating a new agreement to refrain from attacks on energy targets just hours after US President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Spot silver fell 0.7% to USD 33.79 an ounce, platinum slipped 0.3% to USD 994.15 and palladium fell 0.8% to USD 959.54.

(Reporting by Daksh Grover and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Sherin Varghese; Editing by Joe Bavier, Chris Reese, Vijay Kishore, and Mohammed Safi Shamsi)

Foreign investors jilt India as growth falters and China beckons

MUMBAI/SINGAPORE – Global investors are deserting India’s stock market, selling shares at a record pace to buy Chinese stocks instead, in a dramatic reversal of fortunes for the Asian giants over the last six months.

A hit to earnings from high inflation and interest rates have chipped 13% off Indian stocks from September’s record high, wiping out USD 1 trillion in market value, while China’s promise of stimulative policies lures investor interest.

“When China gets flows, India doesn’t,” said Jitania Kandhari, deputy chief investment officer of the solutions and multi-asset group at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

Foreigners have pulled nearly USD 29 billion out of Indian stocks since October, the most in any six-month period, as they turn their backs on a market most investors had embraced for a couple of years.

That money has fled to China, where Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index .HSI, home to many major Chinese companies, is up 36% since late September, drawn by bets on artificial intelligence spurred by Chinese startup DeepSeek.

For the first time in two years, China has a larger weight than India in the portfolio of Britain’s Aubrey Capital Management, which focuses on consumer companies.

Profits have been locked in from the last couple of years of strong performance by Indian stocks, said its portfolio manager, Rob Brewis, adding, “Some of that has gone to China, some to Southeast Asia and elsewhere.”

While asset managers such as Morgan Stanley and Fidelity International remain overweight on India, they have trimmed exposure over the last few months to add to bets in China.

Nitin Mathur, associate investment director at Fidelity International, said the firm has been more cautious on India than in the past, reducing its exposure “a little bit”.

China’s stock market has proved an unlikely sanctuary from the trade war unleashed by US President Donald Trump, as it is relatively cheap and seen poised on the cusp of an economic recovery.

PRICED FOR PERFECTION

Before the steep selloff in Indian stocks over the past six months, investors had scrambling to keep up with the strong performance that carried its valuation to eye-watering levels.

But slowing corporate earnings and an economy seen growing in the current financial year at the slowest pace in four have hurt sentiment, investors say.

Earnings of companies in the blue-chip Nifty 50 index grew 5% in the quarter to December, which represented a third straight quarter of single-digit increases after two years of double-digit jumps, brokerage data show.

India’s equity market was “priced for perfection”, so a little bit of a wobble on earnings had set off a slide, said Anwiti Bahuguna, chief investment officer of global asset allocation at Chicago-based Northern Trust Asset Management.

Even after the selloff, India’s BSE Sensex is priced at 20 times its projected 12-month earnings, a common valuation metric, versus 7 times for the Hang Seng Index, LSEG data shows.

“There is still room for money to come out of India,” said

Sammy Suzuki, head of emerging markets equities at AllianceBernstein in New York, pointing to the decline in earnings for such expensive stocks.

To be sure, not everyone is giving up on India.

“India has one of the best economic backdrops of the major markets, with plenty of economic drivers as well as stock market support,” said Ryan Dimas, portfolio specialist for William Blair’s global equity strategies.

Yet, Morgan Stanley’s Kandhari reckons that the “inflection point” at which foreign money stops leaving Indian stocks is likely only in the second half of 2025.

(Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra in Mumbai and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Clarence Fernandez)

Oil rises on US fuel demand, Fed rate decision caps gains

Oil prices edged up on Wednesday after US government data showed a draw in fuel inventories, but the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady capped gains.

Brent crude futures settled up 22 cents, or 0.31%, to USD 70.78 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed 26 cents, or 0.39%, higher at USD 67.16.

US crude stocks rose by 1.7 million barrels last week to 437 million barrels, US government data showed, exceeding the 512,000-barrel rise analysts had expected.

However, distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.8 million barrels last week to 114.8 million barrels, far surpassing expectations for a 300,000-barrel drop.

“The EIA showed a net draw including products, which is incrementally bullish,” said Josh Young, chief investment officer at Bison Interests.

The Israeli military resumed ground operations in the central and southern Gaza Strip, a day after local health workers said more than 400 Palestinians were killed in airstrikes that shattered a ceasefire.

US President Donald Trump this week vowed to continue his country’s assault on Yemen’s Houthis and said he would hold Iran responsible for any attacks carried out by the group that has disrupted shipping in the Red Sea.

“Traders are being forced to refocus on Mideast geopolitical risks as Israel and the United States launch attacks on Gaza and Yemen, respectively,” said Clay Seigle, senior fellow for energy security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The Fed held rates steady at the 4.25%-4.50% range as expected, but policymakers signaled they still anticipate reducing borrowing costs by half a percentage point by the end of this year in the context of slowing economic growth and a downturn in inflation.

US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have raised fears of recession, and worries of slower energy demand weighed on oil prices.

Investors also watched the Ukraine ceasefire talks. Russia agreed to Trump’s proposal that Moscow and Kyiv temporarily stop attacking each other’s energy infrastructure, a move analysts say increases chances for peace and eventually for Russian oil to re-enter global markets.

However, the prospect of a full ceasefire remained uncertain. Russia and Ukraine accused each other of violating a new agreement to refrain from attacks on energy targets, hours after it was agreed by Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. A prisoner swap went ahead.

“Even if a deal is struck, it will likely take some time before Russian energy exports increase in a significant way, with the short-term impact being around diversion of flows in order to attract better pricing,” said Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty.

Russia is among the world’s top oil suppliers, but its output has waned during the war, which resulted in sanctions on Russian energy.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao and Laila Kearney in New York, Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore, and Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Jamie Freed, Mark Potter, Elaine Hardcastle, Nia Williams, and David Gregorio)

JPMorgan says Russia unlikely to rejoin MSCI global indexes until after 2027

NEW YORK – Russian stocks are likely to need more time to reenter the widely followed MSCI global equity indexes that the most optimistic scenario of two years from June, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a client note.

Russia was removed from the MSCI equity indexes, including its emerging markets benchmark, in early March 2022, days after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine began.

In a late Tuesday note, JPMorgan said that while investors hoping for an imminent resolution to the war might be expecting the two-year process for stocks to rejoin the index to start in June, it was “too optimistic” to think that timeline would be met.

MSCI, which has said the next starting point of the two-year process would be in June, can at its discretion alter the process.

Rising interest in Russian assets has seen the rouble climb more than 30% against the dollar so far this year.

Russia and Ukraine accused each other on Wednesday of violating a deal to temporarily end attacks on energy targets, just hours after it was agreed by US President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine’s dollar bonds fell sharply on the news.

Yet Trump said after a call with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that “we are very much on track”.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Jan Harvey)

Yields fall as Fed still sees 50 bps in rate cuts this year

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields fell after Federal Reserve policymakers indicated on Wednesday they still anticipate reducing borrowing costs by half a percentage point by the end of this year, scuttling some expectations that this projection could be reduced to only one 25-basis-point cut.

Some traders had speculated that higher inflation risks posed by new tariffs could lead policymakers to adopt a less dovish outlook on rates. While the median interest rate expectation was unchanged, more policymakers did shift their projections towards fewer rate cuts.

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, and Fed officials marked up their outlook for inflation this year. But they also marked down the outlook for economic growth, with slightly higher unemployment by the end of this year.

The Fed struck “a slightly less hawkish tone than many on Wall Street anticipated,” Dan Siluk, head of global short duration & liquidity and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson said in an emailed statement.

“The downward revision to growth forecasts and the upward revision to unemployment rates have seemingly overshadowed the upward adjustment in inflation expectations,” he said.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in comments after the Fed statement that it was too soon to determine whether the central bank will look through the impact US tariffs would have on inflation, and it would be challenging to determine how much of any goods price increases are attributable to tariffs.

Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in 64 basis points of cuts by December, up from 56 basis points before the Fed’s meeting statement. That indicates expectations for two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year and a rising chance of a third reduction.

The Fed also said it will reduce the pace of the drawdown of its still-massive balance sheet, as it faces challenges in assessing market liquidity during an ongoing impasse over lifting the government’s borrowing limit.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes was last down 2.9 basis points at 4.252%.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 5.9 basis points to 3.983%.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes steepened by around three basis points to 27 basis points.

Uncertainty over the implementation and impact of tariffs has hurt consumer confidence and sent stock markets lower, which has boosted demand for Treasuries in recent weeks and sent yields to multi-month lows.

Softer economic data have also added to concerns that the US economy is facing a greater risk of a downturn even as inflation remains sticky.

“The Fed is in a situation now where it’s having to balance the risks on the high side around inflation and on the low side around growth,” said Jonathan Cohn, head of US rates desk strategy at Nomura Securities International.

US President Donald Trump plans to introduce reciprocal tariff rates on April 2.

Peace talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war also remains a focus for market participants.

Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy agreed on Wednesday to work together to end Russia’s war with Ukraine, in what the White House described as a “fantastic” one-hour phone call.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell, Editing by Franklin Paul and Rod Nickel)

Dollar eases vs euro after German vote on a spending surge

NEW YORK – The dollar eased against the euro on Tuesday as Germany’s parliament approved plans for a massive spending surge on Tuesday and as the Federal Reserve kicked off its March policy meeting that could offer clues to the path of US interest rates.

The euro was 0.2% higher at USD 1.0945, after hitting USD 1.0954 earlier in the session, its highest since October 10.

The German parliament’s approval of plans for a massive spending surge throws off decades of fiscal conservatism in hopes of reviving economic growth and scaling up military spending for a new era of European collective defense.

“Germany, and by extension the eurozone, getting their fiscal act together is not only long overdue, but supports the bull case for the common currency over the medium-term,” Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, said.

The euro also found support earlier after data showed German investor morale improved more than expected in March.

More broadly, currency market moves were largely muted on Tuesday as investors awaited policy announcements from major central banks, including from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

While analysts expect the Fed to hold its monetary policy stance amid persistent inflation concerns, investors will be looking to new economic projections from Fed officials for evidence of how US central bankers view the likely impact of Trump administration policies.

“The SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) will be the most interesting aspect, I imagine, with near-term inflation expectations likely nudged higher, and growth projections marked down a touch, though conviction behind those forecasts is going to be lacking, amid the ever-changing macro outlook,” Brown said.

The greenback hit a two-week high against the yen before paring gains to trade about unchanged on the day at 149.165 yen, ahead of Wednesday’s policy decision by the Bank of Japan.

BOJ policymakers are expected to discuss just how much of a risk the escalating US trade war poses to Japan’s economy.

“We would expect this adjustment in the pricing of the terminal rate to be maintained following the BoJ meeting,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, referring to market expectations that rose from around 0.90% at the end of 2024 to close to 1.20%.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar slipped 0.4% to USD 0.6358 after rising to its highest in about a month on Monday.

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap, was down 2.5% at USD 81,922.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Editing by Bernadette Baum and Nick Zieminski)

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