Gold extends decline after US producer prices data

Gold prices extended losses to over 1% on Thursday after cooler-than-expected US producer price data with analysts attributing the price drop to profit-taking.

Spot gold was down 0.9% at USD 2,302.13 per ounce as of 2:35 p.m. ET (1832 GMT). US gold futures settled 1.5% lower at USD 2,363.1.

US producer prices unexpectedly fell in May amid lower energy costs, indicating that inflation subsided after surging in the first quarter.

“Gold’s inability to hold rallies on bullish data this week suggests widespread profit-taking,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday and projected only one rate cut in 2024 despite some progress in inflation, as growth and unemployment lodged at levels better than the US central bank considers sustainable in the long run.

Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

However, money market pricing showed traders raised their bets to price in about 50 basis points (bps) of Fed policy easing, or two-quarter-percentage cuts by the end of this year, from 40 bps before the PPI data.

A slowdown in inflation was also noted in Wednesday’s consumer price index data, which was surprisingly flat in May. That sent gold as high as 1% before it pared gains to close just about 0.3% higher after the Fed’s hawkish presser the same day.

“Chinese buying interest may resume at lower levels but it’s unclear where but, according to the calendar, they haven’t bought above USD 2300,” Wong added.

Elsewhere, spot silver fell 2.5% to USD 28.96 per ounce, platinum was down 1.2% at USD 952.35, and palladium lost 2.2% to USD 886.50.

(Reporting by Rahul Paswan and Harshit Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid and Alan Barona)

Nasdaq, S&P 500 post all-time closing highs for 4th day as tech boosts

NEW YORK – The S&P 500 and Nasdaq registered record closing highs for a fourth session in a row on Thursday as technology shares extended their recent rally.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased last week and another report showed producer prices unexpectedly fell in May, helping to keep alive hopes that an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may be on the horizon.

The Fed on Wednesday projected only one rate cut this year, while its outlook in March included three quarter-percentage-point reductions.

The S&P 500 technology sector jumped 1.4% and an index of semiconductors rose 1.5%, both reaching all-time closing highs.

Shares of Broadcom jumped 12.3% after the chipmaker raised its forecast for revenue from semiconductors used in artificial intelligence technology. It also announced a 10-for-1 forward stock split.

Shares of Nvidia rallied 3.5%, and Apple ended up 0.5%.

“It’s still very much a tech story” in stocks, said Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor and market strategist for Murphy & Sylvest in Elmhurst, Illinois. “When you look at the broader market, you’re not seeing the participation you would like to see from a healthier market.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 65.11 points, or 0.17%, to 38,647.1, the S&P 500 gained 12.71 points, or 0.23%, at 5,433.74 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 59.12 points, or 0.34%, to 17,667.56.

After the closing bell, shares of Adobe jumped more than 14% after the Photoshop maker beat Wall Street expectations for second-quarter revenue. The stock ended the regular session down 0.2%.

On Wednesday, new data showed a gauge of consumer prices was unchanged in May for the first time in almost two years.

Some investors are wondering whether the economy may be slowing too quickly.

The economically sensitive industrials sector fell 0.6% and the small-cap Russell 2000 index dropped 0.9%.

Tesla shares gained 2.9%. Tesla shareholders were set to approve Elon Musk’s $56 billion pay package.

Volume on US exchanges was 10.14 billion shares, compared with the 12.49 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.58-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.91-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and 10 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 53 new highs and 129 new lows.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; additional reporting by Lisa Mattackal and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath and Richard Chang)

Oil edges higher as OPEC comments feed demand hopes

NEW YORK – Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday in up-and-down trade, supported by an OPEC forecast for demand growth and data showing a US easing labor market and slowing inflation which stoked hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts despite recent comments from Fed officials.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 82.75 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude futures settled at USD 78.62 a barrel, gaining 12 cents, or 0.2%. Both benchmarks had gained nearly 1% in the previous session.

Fresh comments by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also helped boost crude prices.

The organization expects demand to grow to 116 million barrels a day by 2045, and possibly higher, OPEC Secretary General Hathaim Al Ghais said on Thursday in a rebuke of an International Energy Agency report predicting peak oil consumption by 2029.

Al Ghais, writing in Energy Aspects, called the IEA report “dangerous commentary, especially for consumers, and (that) will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale.”

The US Labor Department said the producer price index (PPI) for final demand dropped 0.2% on a month-to-month basis in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.1% increase. Separate data showed weekly initial jobless claims exceeded estimates to reach a 10-month high.

On Wednesday, the Fed held interest rates steady and pushed out the projected start of policy easing to as late as December. In a press conference after the end of the US central bank’s two-day policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation had fallen without a major blow to the economy.

Powell’s comments “implying no definitive time frame for a rate reduction appeared to place additional pressure on the energy complex,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates.

Higher borrowing costs tend to dampen economic growth and can limit oil demand.

Tomorrow, investors will turn their sights to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for signs of US economic strength or weakness.

“Last month, the number came in much weaker than anticipated, with the surprise print spawning volatility in the oil patch as traders viewed the lame number as a negative demand indicator,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Muzuho.

On the supply side, US crude stockpiles rose more than expected last week, driven largely by a jump in imports, while fuel inventories also increased more than expected, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday.

Oil traders are also watching continuing talks over a potential ceasefire in Gaza, which could ease fears of oil supply disruptions in the region.

In the latest attack on shipping, Iran-allied Houthi militants on Wednesday took responsibility for small watercraft and missile attacks that left a Greek-owned coal carrier in need of rescue near Yemen’s Red Sea port of Hodeidah.

(Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore, and Paul Carsten in London; Editing by Jason Neely, David Goodman, David Gregorio, and Paul Simao)

US yields fall as inflation, labor data keep rate cut hopes afloat

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields were lower on Thursday after economic data showed a cooling of the labor market and price pressures, keeping hopes intact a rate cut from the Federal Reserve may be on the horizon.

The Labor Department said the producer price index (PPI) for final demand dropped 0.2% last month after advancing by an unrevised 0.5% in April, and below the 0.1% increase forecast by economists polled by Reuters. In the 12 months through May, the PPI increased 2.2% after rising 2.3% in April.

The data comes after a gauge of consumer prices (CPI) on Wednesday was unchanged in May for the first time in almost two years.

“When you look at today’s PPI and yesterday’s CPI, it’s unambiguously good news on the inflation front. Of course, one report doesn’t make a trend, but these are the sort of numbers and reports we need to see to be convinced that inflation is coming down, and for the Fed to be convinced that inflation is coming down,” said Collin Martin, fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research in New York.

A separate reading of the labor market showed weekly initial jobless claims climbed 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000, a 10-month high, and above the 225,000 estimate.

“When you see the rise in initial jobless claims, that just suggests that the labor market is coming more into balance, and it suggests that growth should moderate a bit down the road,” Martin said.

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell 4.3 basis points to 4.252%.

Yields had dropped after the consumer price index report on Wednesday but pared some declines after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and pushed out the start of rate cuts to perhaps as late as December.

The yield on the 30-year bond declined 3.6 basis points to 4.414%. A USD 22 billion auction in 30-year bonds was seen as strong by analysts, with the above-average demand of 2.49 times the notes on sale the highest in a year, according to LSEG data.

Market expectations for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed’s September meeting stand at 68.5%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, up slightly from the 64.7% in the prior session.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a negative 44.7 basis points.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, shed 5.3 basis points to 4.697%.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.175% after closing at 2.19% on June 12.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.22%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.2% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Nick Zieminski)

Dollar gains on hawkish Fed, even as inflation cools

NEW YORK – The dollar gained on Thursday despite a soft US producer price inflation report for May, after the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish tone at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday.

Data on Thursday showed that US producer prices unexpectedly fell in May, with the headline producer price index (PPI) dropping 0.2% last month after advancing by an unrevised 0.5% in April. Core prices were flat, after also seeing a 0.5% increase the prior month.

It comes after May’s US consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday was softer than economists had expected, prompting a sharp sell-off in the greenback.

Combined, the CPI and PPI releases make it likely that Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, will also show softening price pressures.

“Today’s PPI comes on the heels of a softer than expected CPI … which is going to feed into what probably is going to be a somewhat softer core PCE deflator when we get it at the end of the month,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

But optimism over cooling inflation was not enough to keep the dollar down.

The US currency rebounded after Fed officials on Wednesday unexpectedly forecast only one interest rate cut this year and pushed out the start of rate cuts to perhaps as late as December.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers were content to leave rates where they are until the economy sends a clear signal that something else is needed – through either a more convincing decline in price pressures or a jump in the unemployment rate.

Other data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased to a 10-month high last week.

The dollar index was last up 0.49% at 105.20. It reached a four-week high of 105.46 on Tuesday, before dropping as much as 1% after Wednesday’s CPI data.

“It was a bit overdone, the reaction (to) that CPI. It was almost a relief that it wasn’t worse. And that’s what sparked such a strong knee-jerk reaction,” said City Index market strategist Fiona Cincotta.

Traders had pared bets that the Fed would cut in September after Friday’s employment report for May showed more jobs growth than expected, while wages also rose more than was anticipated.

Those bets were revived, however, after Wednesday’s CPI report.

Fed funds futures traders now see two cuts this year as likely, with a first cut in September seen as a 68% probability, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The dollar is likely to remain supported as Fed policy contrasts with more dovish international central banks.

“I’m not convinced that the dollar’s top is in place on this move,” Chandler said. “We might not be yet at the maximum policy divergence.”

The European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada have begun cutting rates, and may cut again before the Fed begins easing.

Uncertainty over European elections is also likely to hurt the euro against the greenback.

“This political uncertainty in Europe is sufficient to keep the dollar bid,” Chandler said.

Far-right parties gained ground in European Parliament elections on Sunday, prompting French President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap election in his country.

The euro was last down 0.65% at USD 1.0739. It fell as low as USD 1.07195 on Tuesday, the lowest since May 2, before jumping as high as USD 1.08523 on Wednesday as the dollar weakened.

The yen also fell before the Bank of Japan concludes its two-day meeting on Friday when it will consider trimming its bond-buying, taking a first key step to reducing its almost USD 5 trillion balance sheet.

The yen in particular has suffered from the wide divergence between Japanese and US interest rates.

The dollar was last up 0.11% at 156.89 yen.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 1.86% to USD 66,801.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper in London; Editing by Mark Potter and Josie Kao)

Caution at Fed, but what about the Bank of Japan?

Asia’s market spotlight on Friday shines brightly and almost exclusively on the Bank of Japan, notably the degree and pace at which it intends to continue normalizing monetary policy in the world’s third-largest economy.

The BOJ follows the European Central Bank last week and the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday to complete the G3 central bank set, with investors keen to gauge policymakers’ appetite for accelerating the exit from decades of ultra-easy policy.

All Japanese assets will be sensitive to the decision and guidance, but the broader ripple effects could be felt most in global currency markets if the yen moves significantly.

Wholesale price inflation from India and New Zealand’s latest manufacturing purchasing managers index are released on Friday. Investors across the region are mostly in buoyant spirits following the surge in risk appetite after the Fed and perhaps more significantly, the latest US inflation figures.

But all eyes are on the BOJ. Sources have told Reuters the BOJ will discuss whether to taper its bond purchases, but that the decision would depend on market developments leading up to the meeting.

There was a slight ‘risk off’ response to the Fed’s revised economic projections and Chair Powell’s press conference. But any caution was washed away by a huge wave of ‘risk on’ activity following the soft producer and consumer inflation data.

Emerging market and Asia-ex Japan stock indexes are up, world stocks hit a new high on Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Thursday posted their fourth consecutive daily closing highs, cross-asset volatility is lower and credit spreads are tighter.

If BOJ policymakers are looking for a benign set of global conditions in which to begin tapering their bond purchases, this could be it.

The domestic scenario may be a little murkier with bond yields elevated and the yen still anchored at historically weak levels. But yields are off their highs and stocks have flat-lined for two months, so why not start the taper now?

Investors in China, meanwhile, will be looking forward to closing out a bruising week. Stocks are on for a fourth straight weekly loss, their worst run this year, while the yuan is anchored near its lows for the year and on Thursday registered its biggest fall on the spot market in three months.

Trade war fears are growing, and this week it was Europe-China tariffs that grabbed the headlines after the European Union slapped new tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China.

Auto stocks dragged European shares lower on Thursday, the pan-European STOXX 600 index sliding 1.3% for its biggest fall in two months. Beijing’s response, whenever it comes, could send negative shocks through Chinese stocks.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

– Japan interest rate decision

– India wholesale inflation (May)

– New Zealand manufacturing PMI (May)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)

AI-powered Apple overtakes Microsoft as world’s most valuable company

Apple once again became the world’s most valuable company on Wednesday, dethroning Microsoft from the top spot, as the iPhone maker pushed ahead in a race to dominate artificial intelligence technology.

Its shares jumped nearly 4% to a record USD 215.04, giving it a market valuation of USD 3.29 trillion. Microsoft’s market capitalization stood at USD 3.24 trillion, falling behind Apple for the first time in five months.

The stock surge comes as the tech-heavy Nasdaq hit a record high on fresh signs of cooling inflation.

Apple shares had added more than 7% in the previous session, a day after it unveiled a range of AI-enabled features and software enhancements for its devices, a move that several analysts said would power iPhone sales.

At Apple’s annual developer conference on Monday, executives, including CEO Tim Cook, touted how voice assistant Siri would be able to interact with messages, emails, calendar as well as third-party apps.

“All those questions about Apple lagging from an AI technology standpoint were answered at the Worldwide Developers Conference,” said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles.

“Some of the specifics about AI capabilities that are going to be integrated into the upcoming iPhones made it very apparent that there will clearly be demand for a significant upgrade cycle.”

The tech giant has trailed rivals such as Microsoft and Google-owner Alphabet in the red-hot field of AI, a reason why its shares underperformed this year compared to its peers.

Some of the concerns over its weak share performance, however, eased after Apple beat market expectations for quarterly results and forecast in May, and unveiled a record USD 110 billion buyback plan.

Apple’s shares have risen about 12% so far in 2024, while Microsoft has added about 16% and Alphabet nearly 28%.

AI chip leader Nvidia, which briefly overtook Apple’s market value last week, is up a whopping 154% this year. Nvidia last had a market value of USD 3.11 trillion.

Tesla is the only other ‘Magnificent Seven’ stock that has fared worse than Apple this year, with an about 30% slide.

(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)

China’s value push may bridge a Hong Kong gap

HONG KONG (Reuters Breakingviews) – As one of the world’s most expensive cities Hong Kong rarely enjoys any price advantage over China. One exception is found in the stock market. For years many dual-listed firms in the finance hub have traded at hefty discounts to their mainland equivalent. That gap may ease as Beijing pushes for higher dividend payouts.

The Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index was in February on the verge of breaking through 158, its highest level since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. The difference between the ’A’ and ’H’ shares gauges relative enthusiasm for Chinese stocks on the mainland and in Hong Kong. When it’s above 100, onshore stocks trade at a premium to their equivalents offshore.

Hong Kong has been a lesser priority as Chinese regulators scrambled to prop up the world’s worst-performing market. The “national team”, including state-owned firms, focused on buying stocks onshore in Shenzhen and Shanghai, and the muted interest of foreign investors that dominate Hong Kong trading worsened the gap.

The AH Premium Index, however, is now easing. Wu Qing, the new-ish chair of China Securities Regulatory Commission, in April announced a flurry of measures, including the expansion of the Stock Connect cross-border investment scheme, to promote Hong Kong’s status as a global financial centre. At 140, the indicator is only seven percentage points above its 10-year average.

Some state-owned heavyweights are still trading in Hong Kong at bigger-than-usual discounts. As of June 11, the A shares of USD 10 billion China Life Insurance 601628.SS, 2628.HK, for instance, are worth three times its H shares after taking the currency exchange rate into account.

The gap translates into a huge discrepancy in yields. Chinese-listed firms announced record cash dividends totalling 2.2 trillion yuan (USD 300 billion) last year, per Reuters, and Beijing is pushing for more payouts to entice households to put more savings into stocks. It faintly echoes the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s effort that has helped push the Nikkei benchmark to record highs.

One likely side-effect may be more buying of Hong Kong stocks by Chinese investors anxious for returns. Citing unnamed sources, Bloomberg reported last month that China is planning to waive a 20% dividend tax on individual mainland investors buying Hong Kong stocks via Stock Connect. A more bullish mood in the Asian finance hub could even help to buoy sentiment onshore.

CONTEXT NEWS

The Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index was trading at 139.9 on June 11. The index measures the valuation gap for Chinese dual-listed companies whose stocks trade as A-shares on the mainland and H-shares in Hong Kong. When it’s above 100, onshore stocks trade at a premium to their equivalents offshore.

Wu Qing has rolled out a raft of measures to promote the investment worthiness of Chinese stocks since becoming chair in February of China Securities Regulatory Commission. Companies are required to draw up plans for stock purchases in the event of share price slumps, and profitable companies that fail to draw up dividend payout plans can be put on a delisting watchlist.

(Editing by Una Galani and Aditya Sriwatsav)

Oil settles up on Mideast tension, gains curbed as interest rate cuts pushed back

HOUSTON – Oil settled higher on Wednesday as ongoing tensions in the Middle East lent support to prices, but news that interest rate cuts could start as late as December capped gains, following the Federal Reserve’s statement concluding its two-day meeting.

Brent crude futures settled 68 cents, or 0.83%, higher at USD 82.60 a barrel, with US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures up 60 cents, or 0.77%, to USD 78.50.

Prices had eased more than 2% last week after OPEC and its allies said they would phase out output cuts starting from October.

Palestinian militant group Hamas has proposed numerous changes, some unworkable, to a US-backed proposal for a ceasefire with Israel in Gaza, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday, adding that mediators were determined to close the gaps.

At a press conference with Qatar’s prime minister in Doha, Blinken said some of the counter-proposals from Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, had sought to amend terms that it had accepted in previous talks.

The war has yet to materially affect global oil supply, but investors have priced in the risk, boosting crude futures prices.

Meanwhile, investors were left disappointed after the Federal Reserve pushed out the start of rate cuts to perhaps as late as December, with officials projecting only a single quarter-percentage-point reduction for the year amid rising estimates for what it will take to keep inflation in check.

US consumer price data, published on Wednesday, had reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference later on Wednesday.

“It will be interesting to see what Powell says, I don’t think there is any doubt that they will leave rates where they are,” said Ben McMillan, a fund manager for IDX Advisors.

Higher borrowing costs tend to dampen economic growth, and could, by extension, limit oil demand.

“The market is holding its breath right now,” said Tim Snyder, economist at Matador Economics.

“If Powell talks outside of what the Fed publishes, there could be a little discord within the policy committee as to their direction on interest rates,” Snyder added.

Elsewhere, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said the ECB must move “very slowly” in reducing interest rates, because of huge uncertainty over the inflation outlook.

US crude stocks posted a surprise build last week, up by 3.7 million barrels to 459.7 million barrels, compared with expectations of a 1 million barrel draw, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

Gasoline stocks rose more than expected, up by 2.6 million barrels to 233.5 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 900,000-barrel build.

However, longer term, the EIA, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries this week updated their views on the global oil demand-supply balance for 2024, predicting declines in global oil inventories.

Their reports imply limited downside for prices in the second half of the year, said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, with the IEA seeing a larger depletion in inventories than the other two.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Natalie Grover in London, Arathy Somasekhar in Houston, and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Tomasz Janowski, and Leslie Adler)

US yields lower after inflation data, Fed hold on rates

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields dropped on Wednesday after an inflation reading came in cooler than expected, raising hopes the Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rates in coming months that were only partly dampened by new Fed projections that pointed to some caution.

US consumer prices were unchanged in May, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index (CPI), following a 0.3% increase in April and below the 0.1% increase forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

In the 12 months through May, the CPI advanced 3.3% after increasing 3.4% in April and slightly below the 3.4% forecast.

“The headline number was flat, but that had a lot of uncertainty around it. The core number, which is more signal than noise, was below the consensus,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

“After three months of veering off-track, the disinflation bus is back on the road to 2%.”

Yields pared some declines after the Fed as expected held interest rates steady but pushed out the start of rate cuts to perhaps as late as December, with officials projecting only a single quarter-percentage-point reduction for the year, climbing further during comments from Chair Jerome Powell following the announcement.

“At worst, it’s just delayed, at best, we get more prints like the CPI this morning and the Fed not only does one, but they could still do two, this is far from any commitment, the Fed continues to watch the data,” said Stephen Gallagher, chief US economist at Societe Generale in New York.

“This is a matter of just pulling forward, pushing back, by a matter of months.”

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note was down 8 basis points, at 4.322% after hitting 4.25%, its lowest level since April 1.

Market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in September eased somewhat after the Fed statement, with a 63.5% chance for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points being priced in, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, after rising to roughly 70% in the wake of the inflation data.

The yield on the 30-year bond shed 5.8 basis points to 4.477%.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 7.6 basis points and was poised for its biggest daily drop since May 15, to 4.758%, after falling to 4.67%, its lowest since April 5.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.188% after closing at 2.265% on June 11.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.23%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.4% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Nick Zieminski, and Andrea Ricci)

2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle

Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work

Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning

Consensus Pricing – June 2025

Policy Rate Update: Dovish BSP Narrows IRD