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THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
equities-3may23-2
Consensus Pricing
Consensus Pricing – June 2025
June 25, 2025 DOWNLOAD
Two people discussing a chart on a tablet
Economic Updates
Policy Rate Update: Dovish BSP Narrows IRD 
June 19, 2025 DOWNLOAD
grocery-2-aa
Economic Updates
Inflation Update: Prices rise even slower in May 
June 5, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports

Archives: Reuters Articles

Oil settles over 1% higher on mounting tension in Europe, Mideast

Oil settles over 1% higher on mounting tension in Europe, Mideast

HOUSTON – Oil settled more than 1% higher on Tuesday due to escalating geopolitical risk in Europe and the Middle East, where wars continue to threaten global supply.

Brent crude futures settled up USD 1.08, or 1.3%, at USD 85.33 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures ended USD 1.24, or 1.5%, higher at USD 81.57 a barrel.

Global benchmark Brent has clambered back from an early-June close of USD 77.52, yet remains off its USD 90 peaks from mid-April.

Prices rose after a Ukrainian drone strike caused a large fire in a fuel tank at an oil terminal in Russia’s southern port of Azov, according to Russian officials and a Ukrainian intelligence source.

The port of Azov has two oil product terminals, which handled a total of about 220,000 tons of fuel for export during the period from January to May.

The ongoing attacks on Russia’s oil refining complex pose a threat to physical global supply, as well as boosting the risk premium priced into crude futures.

“The Ukrainian attack reminds the market that Russian energy infrastructure is very much in the crosshairs, the global market needs those barrels of crude and refined products to keep prices in check,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital.

Meanwhile, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned that a decision on an all-out war with Hezbollah was coming soon even as the US tries to avert a greater war between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement.

Special envoy Amos Hochstein to US President Joe Biden, said he had been dispatched to Lebanon immediately following a brief trip to Israel because the situation was “serious.”

“Everywhere you look the geopolitical risk factor is very high,” Price Futures Group’s Phil Flynn said.

“We have not seen a major impact on supply but that could change really quickly,” he added.

Prices also climbed after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said interest rates will come down gradually but gave no precise timetable.

Later, oil came under pressure when Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins cautioned that it was “too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.”

The market is also watching US stockpile data due this week for hints on the oil demand outlook during the summer driving season.

US crude oil inventories posted a surprise build last week while gasoline stocks fell, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures.

The API figures showed crude stocks rose by 2.264 million barrels in the week ended June 14, the sources said on condition of anonymity, compared with an expected draw of 2.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.077 million barrels, and distillates rose by 538,000 barrels.

Official inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration will be released at 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday, delayed a day due to the Juneteenth holiday.

(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Paul Carsten in London, and Trixie Yap in Singapore; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Jason Neely, and Tomasz Janowski)

 

US yields retreat as soft retail sales keep Fed on track to cut rates this year

US yields retreat as soft retail sales keep Fed on track to cut rates this year

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields fell on Tuesday after data showed retail sales in the world’s largest economy grew less than expected last month, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to lower interest rates this year.

US yields have fallen in five of the last six sessions as data across different sectors of the economy has started to show moderation. They rose on Monday, however, as investors took profits on price gains that took the benchmark 10-year yield, for instance, to a three-month low last Friday.

A government report on Tuesday showed US retail sales rose 0.1% last month after a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, gaining 0.3% in May.

“I am not completely surprised that there is a slowdown in consumption,” said Thierry Wizman, global rates and FX strategist at Macquarie in New York.

“Some of the analysis had suggested that it would be around the middle of the year that we will get exhaustion in the excess savings accumulated by households after the pandemic. If we see a slowdown in the consumer, this would be around the right time to expect them,” he added.

In mid-morning trading, the benchmark 10-year yield slid 2.3 basis points (bps) to 4.257%.

US 30-year yields slipped 1.3 bps to 4.397%.

On the front end of the curve, the two-year yield declined 3.8 bps to 4.724%.

The US yield curve, meanwhile, modestly reduced its inversion on Tuesday. The spread between US two- and 10-year yields, which typically signals the onset of recession was at minus 46.6 bps, compared with minus 48.9 bps late on Monday.

The curve is what is called a “bull steepener,” in which short-term rates are falling more sharply than longer-dated ones. This often happens when the Fed is expected to cut interest rates.

Following the retail sales data, fed funds futures raised the chances of easing in September to around 67%, from about 60% late on Monday, according to LSEG’s calculations. The market is also pricing between one to two rate cuts of 25 bps each this year.

Later on Tuesday, the US Treasury will auction USD 13 billion in 20-year bonds.

“As a theme, we’re constructive on the prospects for the auction in light of how well last week’s 10s and 30s (auctions),” wrote BMO Capital in a research note.

“The caveat is that 20s occupy a very specific place on the curve, one in which the influence of relative value creates concern on the heels of the recent flight-to-liquidity stemming from the dislocations in Europe.”

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Editing by Nick Zieminski)

 

Nvidia eclipses Microsoft as world’s most valuable company

Nvidia eclipses Microsoft as world’s most valuable company

Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company on Tuesday, dethroning tech heavyweight Microsoft as its high-end processors play a central role in a scramble to dominate artificial intelligence technology.

Shares of the chipmaker climbed 3.5% to USD 135.58, lifting its market capitalization to USD 3.335 trillion, just days after overtaking iPhone maker Apple to become the second most valuable company.

Microsoft’s stock market value was USD 3.317 trillion as its shares dipped 0.45%.

Apple’s stock slipped over 1%, leaving its value at USD 3.286 trillion.

Nvidia’s stunning surge in market value over the past year has become emblematic of a Wall Street frenzy driven by optimism about emerging AI technology.

While Nvidia’s rally has lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs, some investors worry that unbridled optimism about AI could evaporate if signs emerge of a slowdown in spending on the technology.

“It’s Nvidia’s market; we’re all just trading in it,” said Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers.

Nvidia has also become by far the most traded company on Wall Street, with daily turnover recently averaging USD 50 billion, compared to around USD 10 billion each for Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla, according to LSEG data. The chipmaker now accounts for about 16% of all trading in S&P 500 companies.

Nvidia’s stock has nearly tripled so far this year, compared with a rise of about 19% in Microsoft shares, with demand for its top-of-the-line processors outpacing supply.

Tech giants Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Google-owner Alphabet are competing to build out their AI computing capabilities and add the technology to their products and services.

An insatiable appetite for Nvidia’s AI processors, viewed as far superior to competitors’ offerings, has left them in tight supply, and many investors view Nvidia as the greatest winner to date from surging AI development.

“Nvidia has been getting a lot of positive attention and has been doing a lot of things very correctly, but a small misstep is likely to cause a major correction in the stock, and investors should be careful,” said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors in New York.

Tuesday’s gain lifted Nvidia’s stock to a record high and added over USD 110 billion to its market capitalization, equivalent to the entire value of Lockheed Martin.

The company’s market value expanded from USD 1 trillion to USD 2 trillion in just nine months in February, while taking just over three months to hit USD 3 trillion in June.

Since its blowout forecast about a year ago, the company has consistently breezed past Wall Street’s lofty expectations for revenue and profit, with demand for its graphics processors far outstripping supply as companies rush to embed AI applications.

Nvidia executives said in May that demand for its Blackwell AI chips could exceed supply “well into next year.”

Sharp increases in analysts’ expectations for Nvidia’s future earnings have outpaced its stellar stock gains, resulting in a fall in the stock’s earnings valuation.

Nvidia recently traded at 44 times expected earnings, down from over 84 about a year ago, LSEG data showed.

Increasing the appeal for its highly valued stock among individual investors, Nvidia last week split its stock 10-for-one.

(Reporting by Shristi Achar, Medha Singh and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru, and by Noel Randewich in San Francisco; Additional reporting by Suzanne McGee and Stephen Culp in New York; Editing by Anil D’Silva, Shounak Dasgupta, and Lisa Shumaker)

 

Dollar eases after US retail sales miss expectations in May

Dollar eases after US retail sales miss expectations in May

NEW YORK – The dollar eased against the euro on Tuesday after retail sales data indicated signs of exhaustion among US consumers, boosting the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.

US retail sales increased less than expected in May as lower prices for gasoline and motor vehicles weighed on receipts at service stations and auto dealerships.

The trend in sales growth has been slowing as higher prices and interest rates force households to prioritize essentials and cut back on discretionary spending.

“It may have come later than initially expected, but the tight financial conditions engineered by the Fed finally appear to be straining household budgets this year,” said Stuart Cole, chief economist at Equiti Capital.

“But a softer pace of consumption may actually be welcomed by the Fed, as it makes the task of returning CPI back to target that much easier, especially given the key role domestic consumption plays in driving US economic activity,” Cole said.

The euro was 0.02% higher at USD 1.073625. The common currency slipped as low as USD 1.071 earlier in the session.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was about flat at 105.30.

“The softer-than-expected retail sales report increases the likelihood that the Fed starts to cut interest rates in a few months,” Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, said in a note.

Fed Funds futures implied a 67% probability of at least one rate cut by the September Fed meeting, up from 63% a day ago.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Monday that he backs only one interest rate cut this year, but left the door open to changing his view depending on incoming data.

A long list of Fed officials take to the podium at various venues later in the day, including the Boston Fed’s Susan Collins and the Richmond Fed’s Thomas Barkin.

Last week, mild US inflation readings contrasted with an overall hawkish stance by Fed officials, who trimmed their previous median projection for three quarter-point rate cuts this year to one.

Last week’s rally in the dollar was mostly driven by a sharp euro selloff after French President Emmanuel Macron called a shock snap election in response to his ruling centrist party’s trouncing by Marine Le Pen’s eurosceptic National Rally in the European Parliament elections.

The euro has stabilized since.

“Over the weekend, France’s Le Pen said that she would be ready to work with President Macron and would not seek him out,” said Mohit Kumar, chief economist for Europe at Jefferies.

“A portion of the recent risk-off moves have been driven by fears of ‘Frexit’ and euro area breakup,” he said. “Those fears are overblown.”

The dollar was little changed against the yen at 157.81 yen, holding below Friday’s six-week high of 158.26.

Sterling was flat on the day at USD 1.2705 as investors waited for inflation figures on Wednesday and the Bank of England’s interest rate decision the day after that.

Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar was 0.6% higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady on Tuesday. “The RBA’s position was well-telegraphed: they’re in wait-and-see mode until they get more inflation data,” said NAB’s Catril.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell about 3% to USD 64,475, a one-month low.

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Additional reporting by Harry Robertson in London and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Christina Fincher, Bernadette Baum, and Sandra Maler)

 

Guarding against disinflation complacency

Guarding against disinflation complacency

Investors are no doubt relieved that disinflationary pressures seem to be spreading across many parts of the world, but there were a few warnings on Tuesday against complacency that they might keep in mind going into Wednesday.

Australia’s central bank struck a hawkish tone in its policy statement, some US Federal Reserve officials expressed similar wariness over inflation, and global oil prices extended their recent climb to the highest in seven weeks.

That wasn’t enough to kill the general bullishness pervading world markets – Asian stocks posted solid gains, Nvidia became the world’s most valuable publicly traded company and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs – but it’s a reminder that markets are not a one-way bet.

Momentum cooled also in part to disappointing US retail sales figures that suggest growth in the world’s largest economy is slowing – the dollar and Wall Street barely budged, and Treasury yields fell.

Asian markets might struggle for direction on Wednesday. Trade figures from Japan and Indonesia, current account data from New Zealand, and Japan’s tankan business surveys are highlights on the regional economic calendar.

The New Zealand dollar could take its cue from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s chief economist Paul Conway, who will deliver a speech on inflation.

Swaps markets are pricing in 35 basis points of easing from the RBNZ this year and a further 90 bps to 100 bps next year. That’s significantly more than the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is only seen cutting rates 50 bps by the end of next year.

The Aussie dollar was one of the best-performing G10 currencies on Tuesday after the RBA left its cash rate on hold at 4.35%, as expected, but emphasized the need to be vigilant on inflation.

Japan’s yen finds back in and around the ‘intervention zone’ of 158.00 per dollar to 160.00 per dollar, where Tokyo intervened on two occasions recently to prevent it from weakening any further.

The Bank of Japan will be more wary than most about the inflationary effects of the weak exchange rate and oil, which is up more than 10% in the last two weeks.

Japanese lender Norinchukin Bank, meanwhile, will sell more than USD 63 billion of its holdings of US and European government bonds during the year ending March 2025, Nikkei reported.

Norinchukin will do this as part of the bank’s efforts to “drastically change its portfolio management,” Nikkei quoted the bank’s CEO as saying.

It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, this has on the bonds being sold and the yen. Japan is the biggest overseas holder of US Treasuries and the largest creditor nation in the world – repatriating a small part of these holdings could move world markets.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– Japan trade (May)

– Japan tankan surveys (June)

– RBNZ’s Conway speaks

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; editing by Josie Kao)

 

Gold dips on higher bond yields, Fed speakers on tap

Gold dips on higher bond yields, Fed speakers on tap

Gold prices slipped on Monday, hurt by higher Treasury yields, while investors awaited more US data and comments from Federal Reserve officials throughout the week for more cues on the outlook for monetary policy.

Spot gold was down 0.7% at USD 2,317.08 per ounce as of 02:06 p.m. ET (1806 GMT). US gold futures settled 0.9% lower to USD 2,329.

“There’s really a lack of major fresh fundamental news, so the gold market is looking to the outside markets for direction,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco Metals.

“Gold prices are probably going to grind sideways between USD 2,300 and USD 2,400 until the next major fundamental catalyst occurs, which may not occur until sometime in July.”

The US 10-year Treasury yields ticked higher after falling sharply last week, making non-yielding bullion less attractive for investors.

The Fed would be able to cut its benchmark interest rate once this year, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Monday, if his economic forecast plays out.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Sunday it’s a “reasonable prediction” that the US central bank will cut interest rates once this year, waiting until December to do so.

Traders are now keeping a close watch on upcoming comments from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

The release of US retail sales data on Tuesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and flash purchasing managers’ indices on Friday could offer more clarity on consumption and economic strength.

“Back-to-back weaker-than-expected inflation prints, along with the less hawkish details of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, have seen the appetite for gold increase,” Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, said in a note.

“However, with that said, plenty of uncertainty remains regarding the timing of expected cuts, and macro positioning’s beta to data surprises will remain elevated in the near term.”

Spot silver slipped 0.5% to USD 29.38 per ounce, platinum gained 1.3% to USD 970.15 and palladium rose 0.2% to USD 891.92.

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao, Vijay Kishore, and Alan Barona)

US yields advance as markets consolidate ahead of Fed speakers, economic data

US yields advance as markets consolidate ahead of Fed speakers, economic data

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields rose on Monday after falling sharply last week, as investors consolidated positions ahead of a slew of economic data and Federal Reserve speakers who could further clarify the timing of the first interest rate cut this year.

US two-year to 30-year yields gained after declining for four straight days.

Data showing the New York Fed’s Empire State Current Business Conditions index slipped less than expected to minus 6.0, from minus 15.6 the previous month helped extend the rise in yields. But analysts said US Treasury yields were primed for a snapback after declines the previous week.

In afternoon trading, the benchmark 10-year yield rose 6.2 basis points to 4.275%. Last Friday, it posted its biggest drop for the year after weaker-than-expected economic data, led by lower import prices.

US 30-year yields climbed 5.3 bps to 4.403%.

On the front end of the curve, the US two-year yield was up 8.3 bps at 4.767%.

“Even with the rise in US yields, they are going to be capped overall. But this week, we’re going to get housing, retail sales, and jobless claims,” said Stan Shipley, managing director and fixed income strategist at Evercore ISI.

“Generally, I would think that retail sales and housing would be better than expected, just a rebound from March and April. The market is going to also watch jobless claims closely because they jumped last week. So the question is: Is the labor market really slowing?”

The Fed’s new projections on interest rates released last week showed that the first interest rate cut is likely to happen in December, with officials projecting just a single quarter-point reduction for the year.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker echoed the Fed’s rate forecasts on Monday, saying that if his economic projections play out, one rate cut would be appropriate in 2024.

The US yield curve, meanwhile, deepened its inversion on Monday. The spread between US two- and 10-year yields, widely seen as a precursor to recession, hit minus 49.5 bps, the most inverted since mid-March. The curve was last at minus 49.3 bps compared with minus 48.6 bps.

The current curve is effectively a “bear flattener,” a scenario in which short-term interest rates are rising faster than longer-dated ones. This likely suggests a delay in interest rate cuts because US economic numbers have been strong, analysts said.

Analysts also said Treasury supply was likely a factor for the decline in prices and the consequent rise in yields, with USD 13 billion in US 20-year bonds and USD 21 billion in five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities to be auctioned on Tuesday and Thursday respectively.

Ahead of an auction, market participants typically sell Treasuries to push their yields higher, buying them back later at a lower price.

Fed funds futures have priced in a more than 60% chance of easing in September, according to LSEG calculations, factoring in between one to two rate cuts for the year.

“After one of the biggest and most aggressive rate campaigns globally, markets appear skewed toward lower rates,” wrote Gregory Faranello, head of US rates at AmeriVet Securities, in a research note. “It won’t be a straight line, but we’ve done some unbelievable work at higher rate levels.”

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Alison Williams)

Goldman Sachs raises S&P 500 year-end target to 5,600

Goldman Sachs raises S&P 500 year-end target to 5,600

Goldman Sachs has raised its 2024 year-end target for the S&P 500 Index to 5,600 from 5,200, citing strong earnings growth by five mega-cap US tech stocks and a higher fair value price-to-earnings ratio multiple.

Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Amazon.com, and Meta Platforms have collectively surged by 45% and now comprise 25% of the S&P 500 equity cap, the brokerage wrote in a note after markets closed on Friday.

“The drivers of the rally include upward revisions to consensus 2024 earnings estimates for these same tech companies, and valuation expansion stemming from increased investor enthusiasm about artificial intelligence (AI),” it added.

The upgraded target reflects an upside of about 3.1% to the index’s last close of 5,431.60.

The brokerage expects roughly unchanged real yields by the year-end and strong earnings growth to support a 15x P/E for the equal-weight S&P 500 Index.

“The (US) election remains a key risk to the S&P 500 level and falls between our 3-month and year-end forecast horizons,” said analysts at Goldman Sachs.

The United States will hold its next presidential election in November this year.

The brokerage added that index volatility increases before the election during election years, but following the election, volatility typically subsides and the S&P 500 index rebounds to an even higher level.

Meanwhile, Evercore ISI, in a note on Sunday, had raised its year-end target for the benchmark index to 6,000 from 4,750, expecting earnings to grow 8% this year on the back of strong potential from the AI “revolution”.

The brokerage upgraded the information technology sector to “outperform” from “in line”, saying the sector benefits from structural demographic trends and the persistence of the AI frenzy.

(Reporting by Reshma Rockie George and Roshan Abraham in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips, Rashmi Aich, and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

 

Oil jumps, settles at highest in over a month on demand optimism

Oil jumps, settles at highest in over a month on demand optimism

NEW YORK, June 17 (Reuters) – Oil prices surged nearly USD 2 a barrel on Monday to their highest settlement levels in over a month, adding to last week’s gains as investors grew more optimistic on the demand outlook.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained by USD 1.88, or 2.4%, to settle at USD 80.33 a barrel, the highest since the end of April. Global benchmark Brent crude gained USD 1.63, or 2%, to USD 84.25 a barrel, also the highest since April.

Last week, both benchmarks posted their first weekly gain in four weeks after reports from the OPEC+ producer group, the International Energy Agency, and US Energy Information Administration raised confidence that oil demand will improve in the second half of the year and help inventories drawdown.

Reassurances from OPEC+ that a plan to raise supplies from the fourth quarter of this year could be paused or reversed based on market conditions also helped prices firm. That plan, unveiled after the group’s meeting on June 2, had led to a sharp selloff in prices.

“The outlook for strong fuel demand into the coming quarter and Saudi reassurance about the October hike being subject to prevailing conditions and added focus on quota breakers to bring production down and into line all seem to be supporting,” said Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank.

Investors last week repurchased some of the petroleum they had sold the week before, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

“Those funds who thought we were heading into a production battle, had their concerns quickly assuaged when OPEC+ members went on a PR campaign to assure the world their changes to production would be market dependent,” said Alex Hodes, oil analyst at brokerage firm StoneX.

Economic data from China also supported hopes of stronger oil demand from the top importer, Hodes said.

Manufacturing investment in China in the first five months of this year showed robust growth of 9.6%, government data showed on Monday. Other data was mixed, however, with industrial output lagging expectations.

Oil prices have also been supported by a rising geopolitical risk premium, AEGIS Hedging analysts noted on Monday.

Concerns of a wider Middle East war lingered after the Israeli military said on Sunday that intensified cross-border fire from Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement into Israel could trigger serious escalation.

(Additional reporting by Alex Lawler, Mohi Narayan, and Colleen Howe; editing by Jason Neely, Josie Kao, Susan Fenton, and David Gregorio)

 

Divergence, disconnect, but no dislocation … yet

Divergence, disconnect, but no dislocation … yet

The start of the trading week has shown that it is becoming increasingly difficult to navigate, never mind predict, markets right now, with many asset correlations being weakened by strong cross-currents of news flow and drivers.

Some markets, like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, are taking on a momentum of their own, and others, like the US Treasury market and the dollar, are sending contradictory signals.

Rising US bond yields on Monday failed to support the dollar, the relentless tech and AI boom delivered record highs for two of Wall Street’s three main indexes yet again, while a near-2% slump in Japan’s Nikkei came out of the blue.

This is the rather fragmented backdrop to the Asian market open on Tuesday, which is further complicated by the political turmoil in France that is rocking French assets and markets across the eurozone.

Will investors in Asia take their cue on Tuesday from higher Treasury yields, the lower dollar, the US tech frenzy or the ongoing deterioration in Chinese data and sentiment?

The economic calendar across the continent is light, but the main event is a big one – the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision, and guidance from the accompanying statement and press conference from Governor Michele Bullock.

Economists polled by Reuters are unanimous in their view that the RBA will hold its cash rate at 4.35% for a fifth straight meeting. With inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% to 3% target since late 2021 and the jobless rate easing to 4%, an early rate reduction seems unlikely.

A near 90% majority, 38 of 43, predicted interest rates to remain unchanged next quarter, followed by a 25-basis-point cut to 4.10% in the final quarter of this year.

Australian rates markets are even more hawkish – traders are pricing in only 15 basis points of easing this year, and barely 50 bps in total by the end of 2025. Excluding the Bank of Japan, which is in the early stages of tightening policy, that’s among the most hawkish pricing for any G10 central bank.

In China, meanwhile, stocks are at a two-month low and the yuan is its weakest this year after a weak batch of data on Monday – especially house prices – did little to lift the economic gloom.

Trade tensions are intensifying too. China has opened an anti-dumping investigation into imported pork and its by-products from the European Union, a tit-for-tat response to curbs on its electric vehicle exports.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, meanwhile, has trimmed its stake in China’s BYD, the world’s largest seller of electric vehicles. The change in stake is tiny, but potentially symbolic of foreigners’ angst at the brewing trade wars.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

– Australia interest rate decision

– Singapore non-oil trade (May)

– Fed’s Barkin, Collins, Kugler, Musalem, Logan, Goolsbee speak

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; editing by Josie Kao)

 

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