China bond intervention is only a short-term fix

HONG KONG – China’s central bank may have done just enough to stave off a worsening of one of the more worrying financial-market signals of economic distress – but only for now. Fears of a balance-sheet recession, marked by paying down debt instead of spending, have risen of late as yields on government debt sank to record lows thanks to investors en masse seeking a safe haven for their money.

Monday’s decision by the People’s Bank of China to start borrowing government debt from primary dealers “in the near future” may have enough shock value to reverse the clamor for the notes in the short term. But a longer-term fix needs more than market tweaks.

The PBOC’s move is a precursor to selling the securities itself. It’s not currently in a good position to do this without tapping brokers as it only holds about 1.5 trillion yuan (USD 209 billion) of the stuff on its own books, per Reuters. That’s about 5% of Chinese government debt in circulation and 1.4% of the onshore bond holdings by Chinese entities.

The aim would be to put enough extra paper into the market to more than soak up demand, thus allowing yields to rise. And then, hey presto, no one needs to worry about a looming economic collapse. The mere act of saying it’s planning to take action has had some effect: the 10-year benchmark yield has already rebounded nearly 10 basis points this week from a 20-year low.

Trouble is, that doesn’t change any of the underlying issues the economy faces. Nor is the PBOC necessarily the right institution to fix it. The PBOC has been easing monetary supply, for example, yet credit demand has been sluggish.

It has also been under pressure to cut rates, but that has prompted a lot of speculation by traders on further easing, pushing down yields and reinforcing the growing perception that the outlook is gloomy. Like a feedback loop, ailing confidence in the USD 18 trillion economy and uncertainty over the direction of asset prices have investors shunning the stock and property markets, and instead piling into government debt, which also weighs on yields.

If nothing else, though, the central bank’s new plan buys some breathing room ahead of the ruling Communist Party’s Third Plenum which starts in a couple of weeks. If officials there come up with policies supportive of boosting growth, the pressure on the bond markets may well ease. If not, the bond-buying frenzy is likely to return, pushing Beijing and the PBOC back to square one.

CONTEXT NEWS

The People’s Bank of China said on July 1 that it would start to borrow sovereign bonds from primary traders in the open market “in the near future”. The announcement sets the stage for possible government debt selling in the face of a bond market rally that has pushed borrowing costs to their lowest level in two decades, Reuters reported.

(Editing by Antony Currie and Katrina Hamlin)

Crude falls as Hurricane Beryl fears fade

HOUSTON – Crude oil prices fell on Tuesday as fears faded that Hurricane Beryl would disrupt supplies as the storm will avoid most oil fields as it barrels toward Jamaica.

Brent crude futures settled down 36 cents, or 0.42%, at USD 86.24 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at USD 82.81 a barrel, down 57 cents or 0.68%.

Earlier on Tuesday, WTI rose USD 1 to USD 84.38 on fears Beryl might have a wider impact in offshore oil production areas in the U.S.-regulated northern Gulf of Mexico as U.S. demand for motor fuels is increasing.

Both benchmarks gained about 2% in the previous session.

But as new forecasts emerged on Monday, traders were less fearful of supply problems, said Phil Flynn, analyst with the Price Futures Group.

“Markets came to the realization that Beryl is not going to shut down any major amounts of offshore oil production,” Flynn said. “We may see some shut, but it’s going to have a minimal impact on platforms.”

Hurricane Beryl is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane tearing through the Caribbean Sea. It is expected to have weakened into a tropical storm by the time it enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week, according to the US National Hurricane Center.

“We dodged a bullet on Beryl,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital LLC. “But, there definitely is an understanding that any storm that develops in the Gulf is going to be a big one.”

Sources said on Tuesday after that American Petroleum Institute figures for last week showed US crude oil and distillates inventories fell while gasoline rose.

The API figures showed crude stocks were down by 9.163 million barrels in the week ended June 28, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.468 million barrels, and distillates fell by 740,000 barrels.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston; Additonal reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, Mohi Narayan in New Delhi and Colleen Howe in Beijing; Editing by David Evans, David Holmes and Deepa Babington)

US yields bite, China enjoys rare surprise

July 2 – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Asia lagged what was a pretty solid start to the new quarter for global stocks on Monday, and the steep rise in U.S. Treasury yields suggests it will be difficult session again on Tuesday for regional equities and emerging assets more broadly.

The 10-year U.S. yield jumped 13 basis points to 4.50% on Monday – the highest yield and biggest one-day rise in a month – as investors repriced the potential inflationary impact from mooted fiscal, tariff, and immigration policies under a Donald Trump presidency.

Wall Street, European, and world stocks powered through that headwind, Japanese stocks got a lift from the yen’s slide back through 161.00 per dollar, and Chinese stocks drew strength from a positive surprise in domestic manufacturing sector data.

But broad measures of Asian and emerging equities flatlined and they may struggle to rebound meaningfully, if at all, in the face of such a sharp rise in dollar-denominated borrowing costs.

There isn’t anything on the local economic and policy calendar that looks like giving markets a significant steer on Tuesday, with only South Korea inflation and retail sales from Hong Kong scheduled for release.

It’s ‘Groundhog Day’ for yen traders, on intervention watch again with the yen mired at 38-year lows against the dollar. Japanese authorities have not shown their hand yet – could they be waiting for the July 4 U.S. holiday to catch the market off-guard and get maximum impact?

Chinese markets opened the new quarter with a spring in their step after the release on Monday of surprisingly upbeat manufacturing purchasing managers index.

The ‘unofficial’ S&P Global PMI for May pointed to the fastest pace of manufacturing sector growth in more than three years, contrasting with the National Bureau of Statistics’ ‘official’ PMI on Sunday that showed a contraction in factory activity.

But figures on Monday also showed that new home prices in June rose at the slowest rate in five months, suggesting recent government efforts to support the country’s ailing property sector are having only a limited impact so far.

Perhaps rattled by the economy, Beijing is taking new steps to boost the inflow of foreign capital into the country and halt the recent plunge in domestic interest rates.

Tuesday’s main data point in Asia will be South Korean inflation for June. Prices are forecast to have risen 0.1% on a monthly basis and 2.7% on an annual basis, according to a Reuters poll. Both readings would be unchanged from May.

The last time annual headline inflation was this low was last July, while core inflation of 2.2% in May was the lowest since December 2021. More numbers like that and Bank of Korea could soon cut interest rates.

Reporting by Jamie McGeever

World stocks, US yields gain after French election results

NEW YORK – Global stocks edged higher in choppy trading on Monday, while US Treasury yields rose following France’s historic elections and ahead of a string of economic data this week that could provide clues on the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

The French far-right took a smaller-than-expected lead in the first round of voting, suggesting a hung parliament could result and hamper the party’s agenda. European stocks finished up 0.31%, while the euro rose 0.13% following the vote.

Investors will be eyeing remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, followed by minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting on Wednesday and US non-farm payrolls data due on Friday. The Fed in June projected just one rate cut in 2024.

“The French elections result wasn’t as bad (as expected) and sometimes positioning matters,” said Wasif Latif, president and chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners.

“There’s going to be a big week for payrolls even though they’re shortened trading so liquidity might be a little bit low as we head into the weekend,” Latif added.

The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in nearly 50 countries, was up 0.26% after early paring losses. In Asia, the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ended flat.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to their highest since mid-June at the start of a holiday-shortened week that will likely be marked by low trading volumes. The yield on the note rose to 4.4692%.

CHOPPY SESSION

On Wall Street, all three major indexes finished higher in a choppy session led by gains in technology, consumer discretionary, and financial stocks. Materials, industrials, and real estate equities were the biggest losers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.13% to 39,169.52, the S&P 500 gained 0.27% to 5,475.09 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.83% to 17,879.30.

Oil prices rose 2% to a two-month high on hopes of rising demand during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer driving season and worries that conflict in the Middle East could spread and reduce global oil supplies.

Brent futures rose 1.9% to settle at USD 86.60 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 2.3% to settle at USD 83.38. That was the highest close for Brent since April 30 for the third day in a row and the highest for WTI since April 26.

In currencies, the dollar surged to a fresh 38-year peak against the yen, the greenback soared to 161.72 yen, its strongest level since 1986.

The dollar index was up 0.1% at 105.82. It was initially lower after data from the Institute for Supply Management on Monday showed US manufacturing contracted for a third straight month in June.

Gold prices edged higher. Spot gold added 0.28% to USD 2,332.29 an ounce, while US gold futures gained 0.09% to USD 2,329.70 an ounce.

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York; Additional reporting by Lawrence White in London; Editing by David Holmes and Aurora Ellis)

Selloff in longer-dated Treasuries leaves yield curve least inverted since May

NEW YORK, July 1 – Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest levels since late May on Monday at the start of a holiday-shortened week that will likely be marked by low trading volumes.

The jump in yields, which move inversely to prices, occurred a day after the first round of voting in France’s national elections suggested that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) scored a smaller win than some polls had expected.

At the same time, US President Joe Biden’s widely panned performance in a debate last week may be prompting investors to price in a greater likelihood that former President Donald Trump will prevail in the Nov. 5 presidential election, putting extra pressure on Treasuries, said Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group.

“For a variety of reasons having to do with fiscal policy, tariff policy, and immigration policy, we do believe that a prospective Trump administration in 2025-2028 will be more inflationary than a Biden administration,” he said.

The selloff in the longer end of the curve suggested that the move was not related to concerns about the Federal Reserve‘s fight against inflation, but reflected concerns about rising budget deficits under a second Trump administration, said Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist for LPL Financial.

“There’s some election anxiety that’s being brought into the markets with the increase in the odds of Trump winning the presidency,” he said.

The yield on the benchmark US. 10-year Treasury note rose 13.8 basis points to 4.481%. The yield on the 30-year bond rose 14.2 basis points to 4.644%.

Ten-year Treasury yields pulled back briefly following a reading by the Institute for Supply Management that showed U.S. manufacturing contracted for a third straight month in June and a measure of prices paid by factories for inputs dropped to a six-month low amid weak demand for goods.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 5.2 basis points to 4.772%.

The selloff produced a “bear steepener,” in which longer-duration Treasuries lost more ground than those with shorter durations, leaving the closely watched gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes at a negative 29.3 basis points, its least inverted position since May.

Trading will close early on Wednesday and the bond market will be closed on Thursday due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

Reporting by David Randall; editing by Jason Neely, Anil D’Silva, Alexander Smith and Paul Simao

US yields rise as political uncertainty offsets disinflation optimism

NEW YORK, July – US Treasury yields reversed earlier declines to trade higher on Friday as uncertainty around the U.S. presidential election as well as the imminent French legislative elections offset an earlier confidence boost from a slowdown in U.S. inflation.

Yields, which move inversely to prices, had declined after a key inflation reading for May showed price pressures cooled in line with expectations, strengthening the case for monetary policy easing to start later this year.

But concerns over the long-term US fiscal and monetary trajectory became the focus during the day, as President Joe Biden’s shaky performance against Republican rival Donald Trump in the first 2024 US presidential debate on Thursday increased speculation about a potential second Trump presidency.

“The debate has relevance because the Trump camp is pro- growth, pro equity markets, pro higher tariffs, which on the longer-term augurs for upward pressure on inflation,” said Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research for the Americas at ING.

Garvey added that while short-term bonds were more directly impacted by the prospect of interest rate cuts this year, longer-dated paper reflected ongoing concerns over rising U.S. debt issuance.

“This is a vulnerability going forward, where we get data optically positive for the rate-cut narrative but the back end starts to think about the longer term,” said Garvey.

Meanwhile, French government bond yields rose on Friday
ahead of Sunday’s first round of a snap election, which polls suggest the France’s far-right movement could win.

The prospect of “populist politics … and probably lack of fiscal restraint” in France may have contributed to the upward move in U.S. yields, with investors not wanting to take long positions in bonds into the voting weekend, said John Velis, Americas macro strategist at BNY.

While political concerns pushed long-term yields higher, Velis said the move back up in shorter-term yields was likely driven by the Chicago purchasing managers’ index (PMI) USCPMI=ECI, which came out much stronger than anticipated, defying the narrative of a sharp economic slowdown.

Earlier in the day the release of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data had increased the chances of a Fed rate cut in September, but later on Friday futures contracts tied to the policy rate implied a 59.5% chance of a quarter-percentage-point cut in September, unchanged from Thursday, CME Group data showed.

Benchmark 10-year yields were last at 4.34%, about five basis points higher than on Thursday. They were 18 basis points lower since the beginning of June and 14 basis points higher since the start of the second quarter.

Two-year yields were roughly unchanged at 4.72% on Friday. They declined by 17 basis points in June but added 10 basis points in the second quarter.

Further out, 30-year yields on Friday added seven basis points to 4.5%, closing the month 15 basis points lower but adding 17 basis points over the quarter.

The spread between two and 10-year yields remained deeply negative but narrowed to minus 38 basis points, its smallest in about a month.

An inversion in that part of the yield curve, which happens when shorter-dated Treasuries yield more than longer-dated ones, is closely watched by investors as it has historically signaled a recession is in the horizon.

Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Nick Zieminski and Paul Simao

Oil eases on weak US fuel demand, profit taking

NEW YORK, July – Oil prices fell on Friday as investors weighed weak U.S. fuel demand and took some money off the table at quarter-end, while key inflation data for May boosted the chances the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates this year.

Brent crude futures for August settlement, which expired on Friday, settled up 2 cents at $86.41 a barrel. The more liquid September contract LCOc2 fell 0.3% to $85 a barrel.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 settled 20 cents lower, or 0.24%, to $81.54.

For the week, Brent rose 0.02% while WTI futures posted a 0.2% loss. Both benchmarks gained around 6% for the month.

While U.S. oil production and demand rose to a four-month high in April, demand for gasoline fell to 8.83 million barrels per day, its lowest since February, according to the Energy Information Administration’s Petroleum Supply Monthly report published on Friday.

“The monthly report from the EIA suggested the gasoline demand was pretty poor,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group. “Those numbers didn’t really inspire more buying.”

Analysts said some traders took profits at the end of the second quarter after prices rallied earlier this month.

The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was flat in May, lifting hopes for rate cuts in September.

Still, the reaction in financial markets was minimal. For oil traders, the release passed unnoticed, said Charalampos Pissouros, senior investment analyst at brokerage XM.

Growing expectations of a Fed easing cycle have sparked a risk rally across stock markets. Traders are now pricing in a 64% chance of a first rate cut in September, up from 50% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Easing interest rates could be a boon for oil because it could increase demand from consumers.

“Oil prices have been converging with our fair value estimates recently, revealing the underlying strength in fundamentals through a clearing in the fog of war,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh wrote in a client note.

Barclays expects Brent crude to remain around $90 a barrel over the coming months.

Oil prices might not change much in the second half of 2024, with concern over Chinese demand and the prospect of higher supply from key producers countering geopolitical risks, a Reuters poll indicated on Friday.

Brent crude is expected to average $83.93 a barrel in 2024 with U.S. crude averaging $79.72, the poll found.

The U.S. active oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by six to 479 this week, the lowest level since December 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes BKR.O said.

Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to June 25, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said.

Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York, Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru and Trixie Yap in Singapore; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, David Goodman, Alexander Smith, Leslie Adler and Diane Craft

European shares post quarterly loss as markets await French elections

July 1 – European shares gave up early gains to close lower on Friday as a drop in shares of beauty giant L’Oreal weighed, while the benchmark index clocked weekly, monthly and quarterly declines on French political uncertainties.

The pan-European STOXX 600 closed 0.2% lower, extending losses to the fourth straight session.

The personal and household goods sector shed 1%, dragged by a 3% fall in French beauty giant L’Oreal after its CEO gave a lower market growth forecast during a Fireside Chat hosted by J.P.Morgan.

The benchmark STOXX 600 recorded its first quarterly loss in three, along with a monthly and weekly decline, amid political uncertainties in France following President Emmanuel Macron’s call for a snap election earlier this month.

“It’s a pretty lacklustre end for a generally lacklustre quarter … markets are very nervous about Macron’s gamble,” said Steve Sosnick, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers.

France’s benchmark CAC 40 index lost 0.7%, ending 8.8% lower for the quarter, underperforming the region’s bourses. The risk premium on French government bonds hit its highest since 2012.

Meanwhile, an opinion poll published in newspaper Les Echos said far-right party National Rally (NR) further rose in its forecast and may reach as much as 37% of the popular vote, two days before the first voting round in the French parliamentary elections.

“There is a risk of a wider European downturn stemming from France, depending on the election outcomes,” said James Reilly, markets economist at Capital Economics.

Technology stocks .SX8P rose 0.4%, tracking record-setting gains on the tech-heavy Nasdaq, as a softer inflation reading firmed bets of a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve. .N

In the continent, French consumer prices rose 2.5% year-on-year in June, in line with expectations, as per preliminary data, while Spain’s EU harmonised inflation rate fell to 3.5% in the 12 months through June.

Among other stocks, Nokia added 1.5% after the Finnish firm agreed to buy Infinera Corp in a deal with an enterprise value of $2.3 billion.

Britain’s largest sportswear retailer JD Sports fell more than 5.4% after U.S. peer Nike forecast a surprise drop in 2025 revenue, while German peer Puma also lost 2.5%

Air France-KLM dropped 4.1% to a record low after Barclays cut the Franco-Dutch airline group to “equal-weight” from “overweight” on political uncertainty.

Finland’s Fortum shed 4.6% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the utility to “sell” on limited share upside and weaker profit and investment outlooks.

Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan and Shristi Achar A in Bengaluru and Jesus Calero in Gdansk; Editing by Eileen Soreng, Nivedita Bhattacharjee and Chris Reese

New quarter, same old China PMIs

July 1 – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Asian market trading on Monday kicks off the new week, quarter and second half of the year with investors’ focus locked on a data-heavy economic calendar, especially the latest snapshot of Chinese factory activity.

The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index report for June will go a long way to showing whether the recovery in the world’s second largest economy is gathering momentum, struggling, or going into reverse.

China bulls will be hoping it’s the former. Some indicators in the first half of the year pointed in that direction, but the overall picture was pretty bleak – growth is patchy, deflation risks persist, stocks and the exchange rate are under heavy pressure, and more stimulus is needed.

A Reuters poll of economists expect the ‘unofficial’ manufacturing PMI index to fall back to 51.2 from 51.7 in May. That would show continued expansion in activity – anything above 50.0 indicates growth – but at a slower pace.

The ‘official’ manufacturing PMI from China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Sunday came in at 49.5, unchanged from May and marking the second month in a row that manufacturing activity has declined.

The wider picture is perhaps even bleaker – the services PMI sank to 50.2, a five-month low, and the construction PMI slipped to 52.3, the weakest reading since July last year. Both indicate growth, but it is clearly slowing.

Manufacturing PMIs from several other countries across Asia will be released on Monday, including Japan, India, South Korea and Australia.

If there are financial market ripples from the first round of voting in the French election, they may be felt first in Asia on Monday. The far-right eurosceptic National Rally party won the first round, exit polls showed, but the final result will depend on days of horsetrading before next week’s run-off.

The broader macro and market backdrop to the start of the week is reasonably strong. World stocks hit a record high last week and ended the quarter up 2.4%, the sixth quarterly rise from the last seven. Asian stocks jumped 5.5% in Q2.

Inflation figures from the U.S. on Friday were in line with fairly benign expectations, enough to keep the ‘soft landing’ narrative on track and maintain the prospect of two quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed this year.

Could the first of these come before the November presidential election?

But there are signs that the bullish momentum is losing steam, especially in Big Tech, and across markets pockets of uncertainty and volatility are appearing. In currencies, this is playing out most obviously in the Japanese yen, which slumped to a 38-year low against the dollar last week.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:

– Manufacturing PMIs from across Asia, including China (June)

– Indonesia inflation (June)

– Australia retail sales (May)

Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Editing by Diane Craft

Jobs, inflation data may break the US Treasury market out of narrow range

NEW YORK, July 1 – A series of upcoming economic reports and Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could jolt US government bonds out of a narrow trading range.

Yields on benchmark US 10-year Treasuries, which move inversely to bond prices, have bounced between about 4.20% and 4.35% since mid-June, as the market digested data showing slowing inflation and signs of cooling economic growth in some indicators. The 10-year yield stood at 4.33% on Friday.

So far, the economic numbers have failed to dispel doubts over how deeply the Fed will be able to cut interest rates this year, keeping Treasury yields range-bound. But next week’s U.S. employment data, followed by inflation numbers and Powell’s appearance could change that outlook.

“The market has settled into a narrative that we may see incremental softness but not a growth scare,” said Garrett Melson, a portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. “That will continue to keep us in this range, but the one thing that will push it meaningfully lower is an increase in the unemployment rate.”

U.S. monthly inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was unchanged in May, a report released on Friday showed, advancing the narrative of slowing inflation and resilient growth that has tamped down bond market gyrations and buoyed stocks in recent weeks. Yet futures linked to the fed funds rate showed traders pricing in just under 50 basis points of rate cuts for the year.

Market reactions to employment data, due next Friday, could be exacerbated by low liquidity during a week when many U.S. bond traders will be on vacation for the July 4th U.S. Independence Day holiday, said Hugh Nickola, head of fixed income at GenTrust.

“The market is waiting for the other shoe to drop.”

A recent survey by BofA Global Research showed fund managers the most underweight bonds since November 2022. Some believe that means yields could fall further if weakening data bolsters the case for more rate cuts and spurs increased allocations to fixed income.

Other highlights for the month include consumer price data scheduled for July 11. Powell is scheduled to give his semiannual testimony on monetary policy on July 9 at the Senate Banking Committee, said the office of its chairman, Senator Sherrod Brown, on Monday. If tradition holds, the Fed Chair will deliver the same testimony at the House Financial Services committee the following day.

Some investors are not convinced Treasury yields have much further to fall. Despite its recent cooling, inflation has proven more stubborn than expected this year, forcing the Fed to rein in expectations for how aggressively it can cut rates. A recent unexpected inflationary rebound in Australia underscored how difficult it has been for some central banks to keep consumer prices under control.

At the same time, some investors believe inflation is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels and the U.S. economic is likely to show a higher level of underlying strength, limiting the longer term downside for bond yields, said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group.

“The market has become much more acclimated to the idea that when the Fed cuts rates, they won’t cut by as much as people surmised a few months ago,” Wizman said. “People have adjusted their expectations but there’s a limit to how much yields can fall on one month of bad data.”

Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Richard Chang

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