Archives: Business World Article

The Philippines will implement a one-month rice import window in January and reimpose a ban on imports from February to April, as the government seeks to support the prices of rough rice in the 2026 harvest season.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said the department is looking to allow about 300,000 metric tons (MT) of rice imports in January 2026, a plan “more or less” approved by President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. following the extension of the rice import ban through end-2025.

“We have to import by January just to be sure,” Mr. Tiu Laurel told lawmakers in Filipino at a House of Representatives hearing. “Our imported stocks, which we stopped in September, are estimated to run out by the end of November and we’ll be running on local stocks in December.”

“That kind of situation is quite risky,” he added.

Mr. Marcos had earlier ordered a 60-day suspension of rice imports starting Sept. 1 to support Filipino farmers during harvest season and to stabilize rice prices. The suspension was originally supposed to end on Nov. 2 and applies only to regular milled and well-milled rice.

“We will extend the rice import stoppage until the end of 2025,” Mr. Tiu Laurel said.

He said the Philippines, the world’s top rice buyer, had imported around 3.5 million MT of rice as of end-September, overshooting this year’s rice import target limit by 800,000 tons.

“We should be at the 2.7 [million MT levels] in imported rice. So, we are… in excess,” he said. “The monthly import volume should only be around 300,000 tons or 3.6 million MT a year.”

Monthly rice imports ranged from 305,000 MT to 517,800 MT in the first eight months of the year, Agriculture Undersecretary Christopher V. Morales said at the same congressional hearing.

The Philippines last year imported about 4.7 million MT of rice, and the US Department of Agriculture in August projected the Southeast Asian nation to bring in about 4.9 million MT of rice for the whole year.

Mr. Tiu Laurel said the Department of Agriculture’s (DA) hands are tied when it comes to regulating rice imports into the country after it was liberalized in 2019 by the Rice Tariffication Law, which replaced quota restrictions with tariffs.

“We have to manage our stocks and our importation versus our production… Full liberalization only puts us in this situation,” he said, alluding to falling farmgate prices of unhusked rice due to the entry of foreign rice imports.

The farmgate price for palay fell by 27.8% to PHP 17.11 per kilo in August from the PHP 23.71 per kilo last year, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed.

“In my opinion, we can’t liberalize importation because we’re competing with our own production,” said Mr. Tiu Laurel. “We need to calibrate our imports. We should prioritize our local market first.”

DA farmgate price monitoring data last week showed that palay prices ranged from as low as PHP 7.50 to as high as PHP 18.20 per kilo, while dry rough rice fetched between PHP 11.09 and PHP 25 per kilo, Mr. Morales said.

Mr. Tiu Laurel also said that policymakers should consider hiking the rice tariffs after Mr. Marcos last year cut tariffs to 15% from 35% until 2028 to tame rice prices.

“Our wish is for tariffs to go up again. But this is still being studied by our economic managers, along with its implications,” he said.

The DA chief said the decision to extend the rice import ban until yearend gives the government ample time to determine the appropriate tariff hike, while avoiding potential market shocks.

Meanwhile, the Finance department is still evaluating whether to restore higher rice tariff rates or maintain the current rates, Finance Undersecretary Karlo Fermin S. Adriano said, noting the government could lose about P20 billion in annual revenues under the current tariff level.

“On the revenue foregone due to the import ban, the range is about PHP 1.4 [billion] to PHP 2 billion every month,” he said at the same House hearing.

The decision to extend the rice import ban until yearend may benefit farmers under normal weather conditions, but recent typhoons threaten domestic output and could undermine the country’s ability to meet consumer demand, Roy S. Kempis, retired agriculture economics professor at the Pampanga State Agricultural University, said.

“An extension may be catastrophic once you include in the decision equation the adverse effects of weather conditions,” he said in a Viber message.

For his part, Mr. Morales said the Philippines could have around 3.24 million MT to 4.06 million MT of rice by the end of 2025, enough to cover national consumption for about 85-106 days.

Avoiding rice imports could also strain the Philippines’ trade relations with key suppliers such as Vietnam, former Agriculture Undersecretary Fermin D. Adriano said.

“Sooner or later an exporting country, like Vietnam, will get mad at us,” he said in a Viber message. “We import almost 90% of our rice from Vietnam, and because of our action, it is seeking alternative markets for their rice.”

The Philippines is Vietnam’s top rice export market, shipping about 2.73 million MT in the first nine months of 2025, according to the Bureau of Plant Industry as of Sept. 24.

“Our sources of imported rice may not be quick enough to supply our rice needs when vicious typhoons come, because they could have discounted the Philippines as a consistent buyer,” Mr. Kempis said.

Extending the rice importation could also lead to higher rice prices in the first months of next year due to a possible shortage, said Mr. Adriano.

“We might experience higher rice prices and then limited inventory by the beginning of next year, which will result in a temporary shortage,” he said.

Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, said banning rice imports alone won’t be sufficient to support local farmers, stressing the need to raise tariffs on imported rice to ensure long-term protection for domestic producers.

“Banning imports is very imprecise. Even if imports stop at harvest time, prices will still be low if importers have brought in large volumes before the seasonal ban, resulting in congested warehouses and tie-up working capital,” he said in a Viber message. “Still, it can help avoid overimportation but tariff rates will also be crucial.” —± Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

The economy and Development (ED) Council has overhauled the review and approval process for government programs and infrastructure projects, such as raising the cost threshold and including public-private partnership (PPP) projects.

In a statement, the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) said the Council, chaired by President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., approved the new guidelines that would be applied to new and ongoing projects that require action from the ED Council or Investment Coordination Committee (ICC).

Under the new guidelines, projects funded by the national budget will now require ICC review if they exceed PHP 5 billion. The previous threshold was at PHP 2.5 billion.

“We have raised the threshold from PHP 2.5 billion to PHP 5 billion already, while at the same time putting safeguards into the various stages of the approval process so that we can spot possible issues or problems that may arise,” DEPDev Secretary and ED Council Vice-Chair Arsenio M. Balisacan said in the Philippine Development Forum on Monday.

The sweeping changes were prompted by a billion-peso flood control scandal that exploited loopholes in government policies to evade scrutiny.

The ICC earlier said that flood control and management projects will now be aggregated by river basin rather than evaluated individually with lower tagged costs.

Under the new guidelines, the ICC’s coverage also includes PPP projects.

The ICC will also conduct a mandatory review of all foreign loan-assisted projects, regardless of loan amount or total cost, except for grant-assisted projects, which are reviewed by DEPDev.

Mr. Balisacan said streamlining the ICC process and clarifying its scope will make project evaluation more rigorous while minimizing delays.

“As we work to ensure that every peso invested by the government delivers maximum value for Filipinos, streamlining the ICC process and clarifying its scope will make project evaluation more rigorous while minimizing delays,” Mr. Balisacan said.

MRT-3 Adjustments

Meanwhile, the ED Council also approved “critical” adjustments to the Metro Rail Transit Line 3 (MRT-3) rehabilitation project, including the full replacement of the rails and overhaul of 72 light rail vehicles.

The ED Council said the Department of Transportation (DoTr) requested the approval for these changes in project scope, cost, financing and implementation timeline “to address emerging technical requirements.”

The changes include additional system upgrades, equipment rehabilitation, and facility improvements aimed at enhancing the long-term reliability and safety of the MRT-3 system.

The DoTr had sought the full replacement of main line rails, a general overhaul of 72 CKD-Tatra light rail vehicles, and procurement of bogie frames and assemblies.

The project also involves the integration of the MRT-3 to the MRT Common Station, the deployment of the Dalian trains, and a transition to four-car train operations.

“The MRT-3 is a vital artery in Metro Manila’s transport network. These adjustments are necessary to meet evolving technical demands and ensure that commuters benefit from a safer, more efficient, and more reliable transit system,” Mr. Balisacan said.

Mr. Marcos had also ordered the DoTr to implement safeguards to ensure the operations and maintenance of the MRT-3 in the short and long term, operational sustainability and maintenance of the MRT-3.

The DoTr aims to start the bidding process for the operations and maintenance of MRT-3 within the first half of 2026.

US projects

Meanwhile, the Council greenlit a USD 400-million cost increase and an extension for four US-backed projects to ensure continuity after the shutdown of the United States Agency for International Development.

The DEPDev said the request of some government agencies to increase the cost as well as extend the implementation and grant validity period for four US government-assisted development objective agreements.

“The changes are intended to ensure continuity in implementation during the transition of project management from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to the US Department of State,” the DepDev said in a statement.

USAID was shuttered in July after the Trump administration dismantled the agency, then froze and cut billions of dollars of foreign aid.

US President Donald J. Trump had wanted to ensure that aid was given only to programs in line with “America First” policies.

“By approving these measures, we are making sure that implementation remains uninterrupted despite the transition in management,” Mr. Balisacan said.

The Council approved a USD 300-million cost adjustment for the Department of Health’s “Improved Health for Underserved Filipinos” project, raising its budget to USD 524 million from USD 224 million.

This aims to sustain better health outcomes among underserved populations and strengthen overall health profile.

The “Enhanced Ecosystem and Community Resilience” project also saw a USD 100-million increase in funding to USD 250 million. The project, undertaken by the departments of Agriculture, Energy and Environment and Natural Resources, aims to address the impact of climate change on natural ecosystems.

The Department of Finance’s “Economic Growth and Democratic Governance with Equity’ program and the Department of Education’s ‘Improved Basic Education Outcomes” program were extended until Sept. 30, 2027. — A.R.A.Inosante

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. vowed to tighten government spending and curb inefficiencies in the use of public funds as he called for faster project implementation and better coordination among agencies on Monday.

Speaking before development partners and senior officials in Mandaluyong City during the Philippine Development Forum 2025, Mr. Marcos said his administration will not tolerate waste or inaction in the execution of government programs.

“We will not tolerate measurement without action, nor will we tolerate the wastage of public funds,” he said in mixed English and Filipino. “No money will go to waste. We will not allow the nation’s coffers to be squandered.”

The President said reforms are underway to accelerate the disbursement of official development assistance (ODA) and ensure foreign-funded projects translate into tangible results.

He also announced the overhaul of Investment Coordination Committee guidelines — the first comprehensive update in a decade, as well as the simplified issuance of Special Authority to shorten approval timelines for ODA-supported programs.

This comes amid a widening probe into allegations of corruption in government infrastructure projects, particularly flood control projects.

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development  Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan told reporters that he hopes the “corruption issues” will be a temporary thing.

“As I said, we expect to come up with measures that will improve the governance of public spending. And if the short-term cost is compensated by a much-improved environment for the medium term and long term, that’s not bad,” he said.

Mr. Balisacan said the flood control mess is unlikely to affect the Philippines’ credit ratings, adding that the ongoing probe will be viewed positively.

“I’m sure that they know there is some corruption there. But, then again, if I were a credit rating agency, if I see a sense that the government is doing something about it, seriously, then I would, in fact, take that as a positive, and I would not be worried about the future,” he said.

Also, Mr. Balisacan said he is open to publicizing the list of barred contractors amid the billion-peso flood control scandal.

“I think that the public being aware of what is a good partner and a bad partner should be part of the accountability mechanism,” he said.

The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have a joint agreement to cross-debar contractors found to have violated project guidelines or engaged in questionable conduct.

Meanwhile, World Bank Division Director for the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei Zafer Mustafaoğlu said the government’s action towards corruption will improve investor appetite and should support long-term growth.

“We also work in the countries, including in the Philippines, to actually enhance transparency, enhance institutional structures to actually deal and reduce corruption,” he said.

In his opening speech, Mr. Mustafaoğlu said that there are opportunities to leverage ODA funding to increase transparency and introduce system improvements for better results and accountability.

“Collectively, the development partners stand ready to extend around USD 50 billion in support over the next three years, if requested by the government, to accelerate the delivery of better services for Filipino citizens,” he said.

Finance Undersecretary Joven Z. Balbosa said the government can learn from the project cycle and “well-established international process” of development partners. 

“From project preparation, project implementation, execution, and then the monitoring and evaluation, the learnings from it gets to new project proposals and design. Within those cycles, there are missions or what you call intermittent reviews, which looks at the project, ensuring quality of the project delivery and whether they’re on time,” he said. 

For his part, Budget Assistant Secretary Romeo Matthew T. Balanquit ruled out concerns over underspending amid the probe into anomalous flood control projects.

“The worry of underspending is not really there. We still have accounts payable, meaning those projects that were already finished in the previous year and we have to pay them,” he said.

Meanwhile, Gary D. Ador Dionisio, dean of the De La Salle-College of St. Benilde School of Diplomacy and Governance, said the President must implement institutional reforms that enhance financial transparency, strengthen independent oversight and establish comprehensive anti-corruption mechanisms to achieve his administration’s goals. 

These reforms are essential not only to prevent fund misuse but also to ensure that ODA effectively supports infrastructure, social services and inclusive growth, he added.

“There is imperative to strengthen public financial management by fully digitalizing procurement and budgeting processes, enforcing performance-based spending, and ensuring independent audits are transparent and accessible to the public,” he said via Facebook Messenger.

He also noted that oversight bodies like the Commission on Audit and the Office of the Ombudsman should be empowered with greater prosecutorial authority and led by individuals of unquestionable integrity.

Ateneo de Manila University political science lecturer Hansley A. Juliano said Mr. Marcos is working to distance himself from ongoing corruption scandals by projecting an image of impartiality and reform.

This effort, however, is complicated by controversies involving his own family, including former Speaker Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez and Senator Ma. Imelda Josefa Remedios “Imee” R. Marcos, who is aligned with the rival camp. 

Mr. Marcos’ primary goal, according to Mr. Juliano, appears to be political survival and completing his term to cement a narrative that the Marcoses endured without corruption.

The 17^th Philippine President made sweeping anti-corruption statements during his State of the Nation Address last July following a series of rains and flooding in several areas of the country.

He launched a crackdown against anomalous public works projects and established the Independent Commission for Infrastructure to probe such problems. — Chloe Mari A. Hufana and Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will likely keep interest rates on hold this week as inflation risks linger, according to most analysts polled by BusinessWorld.

A BusinessWorld poll conducted last week showed 10 of 16 analysts expect the Monetary Board to pause monetary easing at its Oct. 9 meeting, keeping the benchmark rate at 5%.

On the other hand, six analysts anticipate a 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut, citing below-target inflation and the need to support economic growth. If realized, this would bring the benchmark rate to 4.75%.

The central bank has so far lowered borrowing costs by a total of 150 bps since the start of its easing cycle in August last year.

Security Bank Chief Economist Angelo B. Taningco said upside inflation risks would likely prompt the Monetary Board to hold rates steady on Thursday.

“I expect the Monetary Board to pause from rate cuts largely due to the inflation acceleration and upside inflation risks from potential extension of rice import ban and rice tariff hike,” he said in an e-mail.

September inflation data will be released on Oct. 7. A BusinessWorld poll of 12 analysts yielded a median estimate of 1.9% for September inflation, faster than the 1.5% in August, reflecting the impact of recent typhoons on food prices, as well as higher pump prices and electricity rates. This was within the BSP’s 1.5-2.3% forecast for the month.

The 60-day suspension on imports of regular milled and well-milled rice took effect on Sept. 1. However, the import ban is expected to be extended by another 30 days.

Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan said a pause would allow the BSP to evaluate how its past rate cuts impacted the economy, particularly on domestic demand and lending activity.

“The central bank will also weigh the balance between supporting growth and ensuring inflation expectations remain anchored. Global oil price volatility, the impact of recent typhoons on food supply, and the Fed’s policy stance are also important considerations,” Ms. Tan said in an e-mail.

Philippine National Bank economist Alvin Joseph A. Arogo said a pause would minimize the depreciation pressure on the Philippine peso since the BSP eased more than the US Federal Reserve so far this year.

The local unit closed at PHP 58.196 per dollar on Sept. 30, weakening by PHP 1.066 or 1.83% from its PHP 57.13 finish on Aug. 29.

“A pause from the BSP will also be more supportive of the peso given the current USD/PHP levels, which lie above the 58-level despite a generally weak dollar,” Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank) said in a separate commentary.

Metrobank said the BSP will likely wait for the release of third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data on Nov. 7 before making policy adjustments.

“We project household consumption and investment to remain tepid while the lagged effects of the BSP’s previous RRP (reverse repurchase rate) reductions begin to make a significant impact. We expect this to be the reason for the BSP to deliver another reduction to the RRP during its last meeting for 2025 in December,” it added.

In the first semester, the economy expanded by 5.4%, slower than the 6.2% growth posted last year. This was slightly below the government’s 5.5-6.5% target range for this year.

“With the central bank describing the current policy rate as the ‘Goldilocks rate,’ policymakers may require a firmer justification for an immediate adjustment to monetary policy,” Chinabank Research said in a note.

Rate cut

On the other hand, some analysts expect a 25-bp rate cut at this week’s meeting as inflation remains below the BSP’s 2-4% target and the pace of economic growth is still a concern.

Earlier, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said they are open to delivering a cut this month if the country’s economic output further weakens.

Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said they expect a 25-bp cut on Thursday “to preempt downside risks to growth.”

“While inflation remains benign and below target, the BSP is likely to prioritize supporting economic momentum amid subdued fiscal spending, persistent external headwinds (and) recent weather-related disruptions that could weigh on activity,” Mr. Asuncion said.

Azril Rosli, economist at Maybank Investment Banking Group, said in an e-mail that sluggish investment spending and uncertainty from the US tariffs will also weigh on the outlook for growth.

Meanwhile, Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said in a Viber message that the BSP could match the Fed’s rate cuts with 25-bp cuts each at the October and December meetings.

“These Fed rate cuts could be matched locally by the BSP so that healthy interest differential would eventually be maintained to help support/stabilize the peso exchange rate, import prices, and overall inflation,” he said.

The Monetary Board’s last meeting for this year is on Dec. 11.

Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the BSP could have another rate cut in December as GDP growth in the third quarter likely weakened.

“We still see another 25-bp cut coming in December, as we expect the Q3 GDP report due in November to be weak enough to convince the Board to ease policy at least one final time,” he said in an e-mail.

In a note, Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said there is a higher probability the BSP will cut in December if third-quarter GDP confirms “potential demand softness.”

“With rates already near neutral and inflation seen converging to 3% by 2026-2027, we think the scope for further easing after this is limited,” Mr. Neri said.

“Nonetheless, the BSP could still deliver up to two more cuts if the economy continues to operate below potential. They may also decide to move in tandem with the Federal Reserve’s moves, especially if markets expect aggressive cuts after Powell’s term ends in May 2026.” — Katherine K. Chan

The national government’s (NG) debt service bill soared in August as amortization and interest payments surged, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) reported.

The latest data from the Treasury showed that the debt service bill more than tripled (256.96%) to PHP 664.72 billion in August from PHP 186.22 billion in the same month last year.

Month on month, the debt service bill also went up by 515.17% from PHP 108.06 billion in July.

Debt service refers to the payments made by the government on domestic and foreign borrowings.

In August, amortization payments more than quadrupled (350.86%) to PHP 601.62 billion from PHP 133.44 billion in the same month in 2024.

The bulk or 90.51% of the debt payments in August were made up of amortization payments, BTr data showed.

Principal payments on domestic debt surged by 389.93% to PHP 597.89 billion in August from PHP 122.03 billion a year ago.

Amortization paid on foreign debt, on the other hand, slumped by 67.29% to PHP 3.73 billion in August from PHP 11.4 billion in the same month a year ago.

On the other hand, interest payments increased by 19.56% to PHP 63.11 billion from PHP 52.78 billion a year earlier.

Domestic interest payments went up by 17.82% to PHP 46.38 billion in August from PHP 39.36 billion in the same month last year.

This was composed of P24.85 billion for fixed-rate Treasury bonds, PHP 16.87 billion for retail Treasury bonds, and PHP 4.62 billion for Treasury bills, and others (PHP 34 million).

Interest payments for foreign borrowings climbed by 24.65% to PHP 16.73 billion in August from PHP 13.42 billion a year prior.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort attributed the larger debt service bill to the PHP 516-billion government securities (GS) that matured in August.

“This is an unusual increase in NG principal payments,” he said in a Viber message over the weekend.

End-August

For the first eight months of the year, the NG debt service bill inched down by 0.6% to PHP 1.54 trillion from PHP 1.55 trillion in the same period last year.

The eight-month tally was 75.01% of the PHP 2.05-trillion debt service program this year.

Amortization payments, which made up the bulk of the total, declined by 8.07% to PHP 956.74 billion as of end-August from PHP 1.04 trillion a year ago. This was 79.32% of the PHP 1.21-trillion full-year amortization program.

Principal payments on domestic debt slipped by 12.63% to PHP 768.52 billion, while external payments increased by 16.84% to PHP 188.22 billion.

Meanwhile, interest payments went up by 14.66% to PHP 584.15 billion in the January-to-August period from PHP 509.44 billion in the same period a year ago.

This was 68.88% of the PHP 848.03-billion programmed interest payments for 2025.

Interest payments on domestic debt stood at PHP 429.12 billion, 18.31% higher year on year than PHP 362.72 billion a year ago.

Of the total interest payments on domestic debt, PHP 292.14 billion went to fixed-rate Treasury bonds, PHP 99.71 billion to retail Treasury bonds, PHP 30.36 billion to Treasury bills (T-bills), and others (PHP 6.91 billion).

On the other hand, external debt inched up by 5.66% to PHP 155.03 billion in the first eight months from PHP 146.72 billion a year ago.

Mr. Ricafort said the government is still on track to meet its PHP 2.05-trillion debt service program.

He said the debt service bill may have gone up in September as PHP 288 billion in Treasury bonds matured.

“After that, no more large NG GS maturities for the rest of 2025. Next large GS maturities that would increase NG debt servicing would be in February 2026 and April 2026 at P200 billion each,” Mr. Ricafort said. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Local economists kept their growth forecasts for the Philippines unchanged for now, even as a widening corruption scandal weighs on investor sentiment.

“We’re keeping an eye on governance issues like corruption because they can affect investor confidence and, ultimately, growth,” Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines said in a Viber message on Oct. 2.

“But for now, our baseline view remains unchanged and we will continue to monitor macro data as they become available,” he said.

Mr. Asuncion said the bank kept its 5.5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook for this year and 5.7% for 2026, supported by stronger domestic demand and recovery in infrastructure spending.

The government is targeting 5.5-6.5% GDP growth this year, and 6-7% in 2026.

The Independent Commission for Infrastructure, Congress and Ombudsman are conducting investigations into allegations of corruption in government infrastructure projects, particularly flood control projects under the Department of Public Works and Highways.

Emilio S. Neri Jr., lead economist at Bank of the Philippine Islands, said the 2025 growth projection remains at 5.6%, citing minimal declines in government spending through August.

“We will wait for clearer evidence of any sizeable declines among our leading growth indicators before we revise,” Mr. Neri told BusinessWorld in a Viber message.

Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said he is not expecting any growth forecast revisions anytime soon, as their 5.3% forecast for 2025 and 5.4% for 2026, are already on the “downbeat side.”

“The risks, even to our already-soft projections, are arguably now more skewed to the downside, particularly for the second half of this year and early next,” he said.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said it is still possible to achieve the government’s growth targets.

Mr. Ricafort said the government probe is expected to “realistically” dampen growth in state infrastructure spending and weigh on GDP, though the impact may be offset by the reallocation of certain flood control projects to other departments.

Meanwhile, Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan L. Ravelas has trimmed his growth forecast for this year from 6% to 5.7%, but not due solely to the flood control mess.

The downward revision takes into consideration the impact of US tariffs,  upside risks to inflation and political noise, he said.

Institutions like the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have downgraded their Philippine growth forecasts, citing elevated global uncertainties.

In its latest Asian Development Outlook, the ADB trimmed its Philippine growth forecast to 5.7% in 2026 from 5.8% in its July projection. It also kept its growth forecast unchanged at 5.6% this year.

ADB Country Director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries earlier said corruption remains a “heightened risk” but will further monitor.

For this year, the IMF cut its 2025 forecast to 5.4%, slightly lower than its 5.5% projection in July. It also slashed its 2026 outlook to 5.7% from 5.9% previously, amid global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.

More support for monitoring agencies

Meanwhile, Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier called for increased support for research and development monitoring and evaluation, as well as for regional development councils (RDCs) tasked with overseeing infrastructure initiatives, including flood mitigation projects.

“I find also quite missing, the lack of appreciation of what monitoring and evaluation can do,” Mr. Balisacan told a Senate Finance Committee hearing on Oct. 3.

“We don’t provide enough support to good studies doing impact assessment, monitoring assessment of completed and ongoing projects, especially for completed projects so that we don’t keep repeating mistakes over and over again.”

Mr. Balisacan also called for more resources for RDCs, who are on the ground monitoring projects.

“We have that committee, and they’re supposed to know and able to monitor these various infrastructure projects, including flood control projects. But they don’t have resources to be able to do that function, especially as a difficult region (such as) Mimaropa (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and Palawan,” he said. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

The Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) said it hopes to obtain World Bank loans within three to four months to finance the remaining phases of the national fiber backbone project.

“There are two loans for phases four and five (of the national fiber backbone). The one for Eastern Mindanao is already approved. There will be a second loan for Western Mindanao, the status of which is already approved by the (Philippine) Economic Development Committee,” Information and Communications Technology Secretary Henry Rhoel R. Aguda said on the sidelines of a recent forum.

The second loan is estimated at around USD 300 million, Mr. Aguda said, noting that the agency is now awaiting word from the World Bank on the loan.

“What we are waiting for now is for the World Bank to give us the formal proposal. Maybe the study would take around three to four months, but at least on the side of the Philippine government, we’re okay to entertain their proposal of extending us a loan,” Mr. Aguda said.

In August, the DICT announced that phases 4 and 5 of the national fiber backbone will be completed next year, following the start of construction that same month.

The project is expected to bring high-speed internet to more nodes in Mindanao via a 1,000-kilometer high-speed government-owned fiber network connecting Butuan, Cagayan de Oro, Bukidnon, Zamboanga, and Davao.

The completion of the project is expected to spur growth in rural areas, especially in the Visayas and Mindanao.

The National Fiber Backbone project aims to provide faster and reliable internet connectivity. The DICT expects around 70 million Filipinos to benefit from the project.

The current two phases cover southern Luzon and parts of the Visayas and Mindanao.

The first phase, which involves high-speed connections between Laoag, Ilocos Norte and Quezon City, was completed in April 2024. It covers 1,245 kilometers with 28 nodes. It has an initial 600 gigabits per second optical spectrum capacity that will serve the government and at least 14 provinces. — Ashley Erika O. Jose