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Archives: Business World Article

Financial system resources hit PHP 36.9T in 2025

Financial system resources hit PHP 36.9T in 2025

The total resources of the Philippine financial system climbed by 8.08% year on year to nearly PHP 37 trillion at the end of 2025, preliminary central bank data showed.   

Resources held by banks and nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) rose to PHP36.932 trillion last year from PHP34.172 trillion in 2024, according to data released by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

These resources include funds and assets such as deposits, capital, and bonds or debt securities.

Banks’ resources topped PHP30 trillion in 2025, as it jumped by 8.67% to PHP30.706 trillion from PHP28.256 trillion in 2024.

Of the total, universal and commercial banks had the bulk of the sector’s resources at PHP28.572 trillion, up 8.07% from PHP26.438 trillion in the previous year.

Thrift banks’ resources increased by 24.43% to PHP1.456 trillion at end-2025 from PHP 1.17 trillion at end-2024.

Digital banks’ resources also surged by an annual 41.98% to PHP 172.5 billion at end-2025 from PHP 121.5 billion previously.

Latest available data also showed that resources of rural and cooperative banks stood at PHP 505.9 billion as of end-September 2025. This was 4.02% lower than the PHP 527.1 billion seen for the entire 2024.

On the other hand, nonbanks had PHP 6.226 trillion worth of resources in the first nine months of 2025, exceeding 2024’s total of PHP 5.916 trillion by 5.25%.

There was no available end-2025 data for rural banks and nonbanks.

Nonbanks include investment houses, finance companies, security dealers, pawnshops, and lending companies.

Institutions such as nonstock savings and loan associations, credit card companies, private insurance firms, the Social Security System, and the Government Service Insurance System are also considered NBFIs.

Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said the sustained growth in bank lending and deposits as well as the industry’s continued profitability boosted the full-year financial resources.

“This is nearly twice the economic growth of 4.4% in 2025 (and was) again largely due to the continued double-digit growth in bank loans, sustained growth in bank deposits, continued net income growth of banks, which are among the most profitable industries in the country consistently for many years,” he said in a Viber message.

Since May 2024, bank lending has grown at a double-digit pace monthly. The streak was only broken in December last year, when banks’ loan growth eased to a 22-month low of 9.2%.

Meanwhile, the latest available BSP data showed that bank deposits rose by 7.58% year on year to PHP 21.066 trillion as of September from PHP 19.581 trillion previously.

Recent policy easing also allowed banks to benefit from higher trading gains and investment earnings, Mr. Ricafort noted.

Since August 2024, the central bank has so far reduced key borrowing costs by a total of 200 basis points (bps) to its lowest in over three years at 4.5%.

On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate currently stands at 3.5%-3.75% range following a cumulative 175 bps in cuts since September 2024.

Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., also noted that the rise of banks and nonbanks’ financial resources last year “reflected resilience and confidence in the system.”

Mr. Ravelas said resources’ growth this year will be driven by banks’ lending to priority sectors such as infrastructure and consumption as well as the impact of capital market activity, trust funds and insurance on NBFIs.

“In 2026, growth will likely be more measured but still solid, with banks focusing on targeted lending to priority sectors like infrastructure and consumption, while nonbanks benefit from capital market activity, trust funds, and insurance,” he said via Viber. “The story this year shifts from rapid accumulation to disciplined, higher‑quality growth.”

Meanwhile, Mr. Ricafort said further monetary policy easing would “lead to higher trading gains and other investment gains, as well as greater demand for loans, that would again be the major growth drivers for total assets and resources of the banking system and the overall financial system.”

The Monetary Board is widely expected to trim the key policy rate by another 25 bps at its meeting on Thursday to bring it to 4.25%, based on a BusinessWorld poll of 16 analysts. — Katherine K. Chan, Reporter 

BSP fine-tunes monetary operations

BSP fine-tunes monetary operations

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has limited its term deposit facility (TDF) and short-term securities to a single tenor each as it aims to enhance monetary policy transmission and push banks to better manage their liquidity.

“When we consulted with banks they (said they) can manage their liquidity positions even with fewer facilities,” BSP Deputy Governor Zeno Ronald R. Abenoja told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of an event last week.

“So, it’s really to improve the transmission of monetary policy and then also encourage banks to manage their liquidity on their own.”

Mr. Abenoja assured that the central bank’s decision to narrow the offerings of its facilities to single tenors was merely “fine-tuning” and not prompted by any market disruption.

“The banks knew about it well in advance. So, we discussed it beforehand,” he said. “So, (it was just) tweaking (and) small, fine-tuning. There aren’t any disruptions.”

The central bank uses facilities such as the overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) facility, TDF and BSP bills to mop up excess liquidity in the financial system and better guide market rates towards the target RRP rate.

The BSP first opened weekly auctions for the TDF in 2016 and the short-term securities in 2020.

For the TDF, it initially offered the seven-day and 28-day tenors and later added the 14-day papers in February 2018.

However, the BSP has not auctioned off the 28-day term deposits for over five years to give way to its weekly offerings of securities with the same tenor.

Meanwhile, the central bank began offering only a 28-day tenor for the BSP bills before adding the 56-day bill in 2023.

In November last year, the BSP stopped issuing the 14-day TDF, leaving only a single seven-day tenor. Since then, it has also limited its auction for the BSP bills to just the 28-day papers.

Mr. Abenoja told this paper that the central bank initially opted to decrease its monetary operations amid the anticipated high demand for liquidity during the holiday season.

In its monetary policy report (MPR) for December 2025, the BSP also said this was done to “rationalize the number of liquidity facilities and concentrate on tenors that would enhance monetary policy transmission.”

As of mid-November 2025, the BSP’s monetary operations have absorbed PHP 1.5 trillion in liquidity from the market. Of this, 42.4% was siphoned off through BSP securities, 34.6% from overnight reverse repurchase agreements, 17.6% via the overnight deposit facility, and 5.4% through the term deposit facility.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said they are gradually shifting away from the issuance of short-term papers to manage liquidity as they want to boost activity in the money market.

Mr. Abenoja also noted that short-term rates are now near the central bank’s target policy rate, indicating that the existing instruments are effectively transmitting monetary policy.

“So, as long as you see money market rates — for example, those from BVAL (Bloomberg Valuation Service) or IBCL (Interbank Call Loan) — remain close to the policy rates with corresponding term premia, if it’s longer than the overnight (rate), then the scale of the operation, the volume and the instruments being used could be appropriate,” he said.

Still, the BSP deputy governor added that they could auction off the longer tenors again if they find gaps in monetary policy transmission.

According to the latest MPR, the interest rates in both facilities had fully reflected a total of 175 basis points (bps) in rate cuts.

The BSP has so far delivered a cumulative 200-bp rate cuts since it began its easing cycle in August 2024, which brought the benchmark policy rate to an over three-year low of 4.5%.

The Monetary Board will have its first policy meeting this year on Thursday. A BusinessWorld poll of 16 analysts showed that they are expected to trim the policy rate anew by 25 bps to 4.25%.  — Katherine K. Chan, Reporter

OFW remittances hit record USD 35.6B

OFW remittances hit record USD 35.6B

Money sent home by Filipinos abroad jumped to a record high of USD 35.634 billion in 2025, with the weak peso boosting gains from dollar conversion, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported on Monday.

BSP data showed total cash remittances rose by 3.3% year on year to USD 35.634 billion in 2025 from USD 34.493 billion in 2024.

The growth in cash remittances last year was well above the 3% growth projection of the BSP for 2025.

In December alone, cash remittances increased by 4.2% to USD 3.522 billion from USD 3.38 billion in the same month in 2024, as overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) sent more money home for the holiday season.

This was the highest monthly level of OFW remittances recorded in history.

Month on month, money sent home by OFWs surged by 21.03% from USD 2.91 billion in November.

The bulk or 39.7% of cash remittances in 2025 came from Filipinos in the United States, followed by Singapore (7.3%), Saudi Arabia (6.6%), Japan (5%), the United Kingdom (4.6%), the United Arab Emirates (4.6%), Canada (3.5%), Qatar (2.9%), Taiwan (2.8%) and Hong Kong (2.5%).

Full-year cash remittances from land-based workers stood at USD 28.495 billion, rising by an annual 3.4% from USD 27.552 billion.

In December, land-based Filipino workers remained the largest senders with USD 2.831 billion, up 4.5% from USD 2.712 billion in the same month in 2024.

In terms of sources, inflows from the US made up the bulk or 41.6% of the total land-based remittances. The rest were from Saudi Arabia (8.2%), Singapore (6.5%), the United Arab Emirates (5.7%) and Japan (4.5%).

On the other hand, remittances from sea-based OFWs rose by 2.9% to USD 7.139 billion in 2025 from USD 6.941 billion in 2024, driven by a 3.3% annual increase in December remittances to USD 691.037 million in December.

The US was still the top source of sea-based remittances with 32.2% of the total, followed by Singapore (10.3%), Japan (7.1%), the United Kingdom (5.4%) and Germany (5.4%).

Weak peso

Meanwhile, personal remittances, which include inflows in kind, climbed by 3.3% to a new high of USD 39.619 billion in 2025 from USD 38.341 billion in 2024.

In December, personal remittances went up by 4.2% to USD 3.892 billion from USD 3.733 billion in the same month in 2024.

BSP data showed that these were also the highest personal remittance levels on record.

“The record-high remittances in December and for full-year 2025 were driven by steady overseas employment, particularly in healthcare, maritime, and professional services, alongside seasonal year‑end transfers for household spending, tuition, and debt payments,” Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said in a Viber message.

He also attributed the remittance growth to the peso’s weak performance in the latter part of last year.

“In addition, the weaker peso for much of 2025 likely encouraged higher dollar conversions, boosting peso-equivalent inflows and supporting headline growth,” Mr. Asuncion added.

Late last year, the peso touched the PHP 58- to PHP 59-per-dollar level several times. It averaged PHP 58.8488 against the greenback in December, based on BSP data.

The peso ended 2025 weak after closing at PHP 58.79 against the greenback on Dec. 29, down by 94.5 centavos or 1.61% from its PHP 57.845-per-dollar finish on Dec. 27, 2024.

Meanwhile, Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the remittances surge in December signaled resilience of OFWs amid global uncertainties.

“This matters for growth: remittances likely added around half a percentage point to GDP (gross domestic product) by supporting consumption, housing, and services,” he said in a Viber message.

According to the central bank, cash remittances accounted for 7.3% of the Philippine GDP and 6.4% of the gross national income in 2025.

Mr. Asuncion said remittances are expected to remain resilient this year, driven by sustained labor demand abroad, steady deployment rates and OFWs’ modest income gains.

“However, upside may be tempered by slower global growth and normalization of post-pandemic labor demand, keeping remittances more of a stable income anchor rather than a strong cyclical growth driver this year,” he added.

Meanwhile, Mr. Ravelas noted that the US’ 1% remittance tax on cash payments, money orders and cashier’s checks for US-based senders could dampen inflows.

“The main risk ahead is the proposed US remittance tax — it won’t derail flows overnight, but higher costs could slow formal transfers and weigh on momentum over time,” he said.

A 1% tax means OFWs in the US are now being charged a dollar for every USD 100 they send to the Philippines.

“Bottom line: remittances remain a strong tailwind, but we can’t take them for granted,” Mr. Ravelas said.

For this year, the central bank expects cash remittances to grow 3% year on year to USD 36.6 billion. — Katherine K. Chan, Reporter

 

DA expecting a combined 300,000 MT of rice imports in March, April

DA expecting a combined 300,000 MT of rice imports in March, April

The Department of Agriculture (DA) said it expects rice import volumes to reach 150,000 metric tons (MT) per month in March and April, following consultations with rice traders and importers.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said the projected shipments are lower than the usual monthly average of about 400,000 MT, after importers agreed to scale back inbound shipments for the domestic harvest season.

“It’s not an order. It’s a voluntary measure among the industry and the DA. We are working together for the welfare of rice farmers,” Mr. Laurel said at the PHP 20 rice program launch in San Juan City on Friday.

If realized, the combined 300,000-MT import volume for March and April would translate into a 65.5% decrease from 869,321 MT recorded in the same period last year.

Data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showed that from Jan. 1 to Feb. 5, rice arrivals reached 409,377 MT against an expected volume of 613,700 MT for the first two months of the year.

Rice imports in January alone totaled 375,983 MT, up 34.31% from 279,940 MT in the same month in 2025.

The DA earlier said import volumes this year will likely come in at between 3.6 million MT and 3.8 million MT, levels which the agency said are sufficient to meet demand without depressing farmgate prices for local farmers.

The department also recently announced that it is considering a proposal to link eligibility to import rice to the volume of rice purchased from domestic farmers to protect the local industry.

Mr. Laurel said the proposal would require traders to buy palay (unmilled rice) or rice to receive import allocations.

He said the department is targeting initial implementation of the system in the second half of the year, possibly by July.

Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said the proposed policy is expected to manage rice imports while helping local producers.

“It will be a good incentive for traders to buy local palay before they are given allocation to import rice,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber. “I suggest that for every 4 metric tons of palay bought, a ton of rice can be imported, hence a ratio of 4:1 in favor of local palay purchase.”

Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, earlier told BusinessWorld that the proposed local purchase requirement “will not be a problem” as some rice importers and traders are also engaged in milling operations.

“For importers who have no local buying operations, they could easily tie up with local millers or traders or put up their own shell companies,” he said via Viber.

Mr. Montemayor said the proposed scheme would also benefit from additional requirements, such as proof of palay purchase at the floor price or higher. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel

Peso likely range-bound as market eyes BSP meet

Peso likely range-bound as market eyes BSP meet

The peso may move sideways against the dollar this week before an expected rate cut by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and following the release of softer-than-expected US inflation data.

On Friday, the local unit closed at PHP 58.02 per dollar, rising by 9.5 centavos from its PHP 58.115 finish on Thursday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

This was the peso’s strongest finish in more than four months or since it ended at PHP 57.95 on Oct. 8, 2025.

Week on week, the peso surged by 56.5 centavos from its PHP 58.585 close on Feb. 06.

The local currency strengthened on Friday as the dollar stayed weak and with players positioning before the BSP’s policy meeting as the central bank is close to ending its current easing cycle, a trader said by phone.

All 16 analysts surveyed in a BusinessWorld poll conducted last week expect the Monetary Board to reduce the target reverse repurchase by 25 basis points (bps) for the sixth straight time at its first meeting of the year on Thursday (Feb. 19) to bring the policy rate to 4.25%.

The peso rose along with regional currencies on Friday, buoyed mainly by a stronger yen, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

The yen was set for its strongest weekly gain in a year on Friday, after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s historic election win allayed some investor worries about the government’s finances, Reuters reported.

On Friday, the yen traded on a weaker footing, leaving the dollar 0.5% higher at 153.46, but it was still headed for a gain of 2.4% for the week, its largest rise since February last year.

For this week, the trader said the peso could weaken ahead of the BSP’s expected rate cut, with the US inflation report released on Friday also expected to dictate the market’s direction to start this week’s trading.

The trader sees the peso moving between PHP 57.80 and PHP 58.20 per dollar this week, while Mr. Ricafort expects it to range from PHP 57.70 to PHP 58.25.

US consumer prices increased less than expected in January amid cheaper gasoline and a moderation in rental inflation, but households faced higher costs for services, suggesting little urgency for the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates before summer, Reuters reported.

The report followed on the heels of news last week of an acceleration in job growth in January and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3% from 4.4% in December.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.3% gain in December, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI increasing 0.3%. With January’s CPI report, the BLS published recalculated seasonal adjustment factors to reflect 2025 price movements.

The report was slightly delayed by a three-day shutdown of the federal government. Some economists attributed January’s favorable headline reading to the volatility in the CPI data caused by last year’s longer shutdown that prevented the collection of prices for October.

In the 12 months through January, the CPI increased 2.4%. The slowdown in the year-on-year inflation rate from 2.7% in December mostly reflected last year’s higher readings dropping out of the calculation. The tamer inflation numbers were unlikely to resonate with consumers.

Financial markets raised the odds of a June rate cut. The Fed last month left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range.

The Fed tracks the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price indexes for its 2% inflation target. Both measures are running well above target. Based on the CPI data, economists’ estimates for the January increase in core PCE inflation ranged from 0.2% to 0.5%. Year-on-year estimates for January core PCE inflation were between an increase of 2.9% and 3.2%. The government will publish December PCE inflation data this week. — A.M.C. Sy with Reuters

2025 foreign investments fall 50%

2025 foreign investments fall 50%

Approved foreign investments in the Philippines plunged by 50.1% year on year to PHP 272.38 billion in 2025, its sharpest fall in five years, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Thursday.

Preliminary data from the PSA showed that the value of foreign commitments approved by the country’s investment promotion agencies (IPA) in 2025 was lower than PHP 546.19 billion in 2024.

This was the steepest drop in foreign investments since the 71.3% drop recorded during the pandemic in 2020.

By value, this was the lowest amount of approved foreign investments since the PHP 241.89 billion recorded in 2022.

Singapore was the top source of investment pledges for 2025 after committing PHP 92.78 billion, or 34.1% of the total. It was followed by the Netherlands with PHP 35.98 billion (13.2% share) and Japan with PHP 34.03 billion (12.5%).

Analysts attributed the sharp drop in foreign investment pledges to the sluggish investor confidence in the Philippines arising from global trade uncertainties, natural disasters and the flood control corruption scandal.

“In a nutshell, the decline in approved foreign investment pledges in 2025 was driven by a mix of weaker investor confidence due to governance and corruption issues, global economic uncertainties, cautious corporate behavior, and an unusually high base of comparison from the previous year,” said Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development.

Marco Antonio C. Agonia, an economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific, said uncertainty over the US tariffs may have also dissuaded foreign investors from setting up operations in the Philippines.

The United States imposed a 19% tariff on most Philippine goods beginning Aug. 7, 2025.

“Similarly, weaker growth prospects from repeated natural disasters and the flood control scandal may have encouraged foreign companies to scrap or defer their investment plans in the country,” Mr. Agonia said in an e-mail.

The Board of Investments (BoI) approved PHP 150.34 billion worth of investment pledges in 2025, accounting for 55.2% of the total. It was followed by the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) with investment pledges worth PHP 107.06 billion (39.3% share), and the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) with PHP 7.01 billion (2.6%).

For 2025, about 45% or PHP 122.48 billion of the total approved foreign investments will go to the energy sector, followed by manufacturing with PHP 81.41 billion (29.9% share) and real-estate activities with PHP 26.31 billion (9.7%).

In 2025, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon) cornered around PHP 100.43 billion worth of these investment pledges. Central Luzon will get PHP 70.74 billion while the Bicol Region got PHP 50.76 billion.

Sharp rise in Q4

PSA data also showed foreign investment pledges surged by 79.1% to PHP 103.33 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, from PHP 57.7 billion in the same period in 2024. This was the fastest growth since the third quarter of 2024 when approved foreign investments soared by 423.4% to PHP 143.74 billion.

“The jump in [fourth-quarter] approved foreign investments may be attributed to base effects. The Q4 2025 reading saw a rebound coming from the low base but is still historically lower than previous Q4 pledge readings,” said Mr. Agonia, noting that pledges fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2024 over tariff uncertainties.

Mr. Peña-Reyes said agencies may have also “back-loaded” approvals of large investments in the last months of 2025.

“There was sectoral project momentum in strategic areas like energy, IT-BPM, and infrastructure,” he said. “There was relative improvement in sentiment and continued policy support, which encouraged the finalization of deals that had been delayed earlier in the year.”

In the fourth quarter, investment commitments were approved by six IPAs — BoI, PEZA, Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA), BoI-Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Clark International Airport Corp., and Zamboanga City Special Economic Zone Authority.

The BoI approved foreign pledges worth PHP 66.19 billion accounting for 64.1% of the total, followed by PEZA with PHP 35 billion (or 33.9% share) and SBMA with PHP 1.29 billion worth of commitments (1.2%).

In the fourth quarter, the Netherlands was the biggest source of approved investments with PHP 33.05 billion, accounting for 32% of the total. This was followed by Japan with commitments worth PHP 17.88 billion (17.3%) and Singapore with commitments worth PHP 17.66 billion (17.1% share).

During the October-to-December period, the Authority of the Freeport Area of Bataan, BCDA, Cagayan Economic Zone Authority, Clark Development Corp., Poro Point Management Corp., John Hay Management Corp., and Tourism Infrastructure and Enterprise Zone Authority did not approve any investment pledges.

The energy sector also cornered the largest approved foreign investments with PHP 49.41 billion in the fourth quarter, about 47.8% of the total pledges during the period.

Around 33.6% or PHP 34.68 billion of the approved foreign investments will go into the manufacturing industry, while 4.6% or PHP 4.76 billion worth of pledges will be invested in the information and communication industry.

For the period, 45.3% of the foreign investment commitments worth PHP 46.85 billion will go to projects located in Calabarzon.

Central Luzon cornered PHP 35.36 billion worth of investment commitments while Negros Island Region got PHP 7.79 billion.

Should these foreign commitments materialize, these projects are expected to generate 101,164 jobs, 0.8% lower than 101,966 projected jobs a year earlier.

Meanwhile, PSA data showed combined investment commitments from both foreign and Filipino investors surged by 193.8% to PHP 1.1 trillion in the fourth quarter, from PHP 373.7 billion in the same period in 2024. Filipino investors contributed PHP 994.44 billion, or 90.6% of the total.

In 2025, total investment commitments from foreign and Filipino nationals fell by 1.7% to PHP 1.92 trillion, from PHP 1.96 trillion in the previous year. Investment pledges by Filipinos reached PHP 1.65 trillion last year, accounting for 85.8% of the total.

Mr. Peña-Reyes said there will likely be a “moderate recovery” in foreign investment pledges in the first quarter of 2026.

“This view is supported by project pipelines and sector prospects, but it is still influenced by cautious investor sentiment,” he said.

“For the rest of the year, there could be gradual strengthening if reforms and policy clarity improve, with key sectors attracting sustained interest. Actual FDI (foreign direct investment) flows may lag pledges, but they could trend upward as confidence returns,” he added.

On the other hand, Mr. Agonia said investment pledges may remain subdued for the rest of the year.

“The fallout of a weaker growth outlook from the corruption scandal, its effects on government spending and consumer and investor confidence will likely extend into this year, barring any major improvements to the business environment,” he said.

The PSA data on foreign investment commitments, which may materialize shortly, differ from actual foreign direct investments tracked by the BSP. The central bank’s monitoring goes beyond the projects and includes other items such as reinvested earnings and lending to Philippine units via their debt instruments. — Heather Caitlin P. Mañago, Researcher

BSP: Economy to rebound by 2nd half

BSP: Economy to rebound by 2nd half

The Philippine economy is on track to bounce back this year as business confidence has begun to improve, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said.

“It looks like it’s (confidence) beginning to come back,” the central bank chief said during a Management Association of the Philippines (MAP) event on Wednesday held in Taguig City. “Not as fast as we would like, but it’s coming back.”

“In our projections, we think that we’ll be back to normal by the second half of 2026,” he added.

Mr. Remolona noted that the loss of confidence amid the graft scandal stalled the country’s economic growth in the second half of 2025.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3%, its slowest in 14 years (excluding the pandemic), as investments and spending slowed amid the flood control controversy.

This brought full-year economic growth to a post-pandemic low of 4.4%, undershooting the BSP’s 4.6% forecast and the government’s 5.5%-6.5% target.

However, recent indicators, such as the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi), have signaled that business confidence is slowly returning and the economy may be on the way to recovery.

Latest data showed that the Philippines’ manufacturing PMI rose to a nine-month high of 52.9 in January from 50.2 in December.

The PSEi rose to a near seven-month high on Wednesday, even soaring above the 6,500 line during the session. The PSEi went up by 0.37% or 24.22 points to close at 6,498.82, its best finish in almost seven months or since it closed at 6,525.04 on July 14, 2025.

For 2026, the central bank projects GDP to expand by 5.4%.

However, Mr. Remolona said they are reviewing a potential revision to their growth forecast.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the MAP event, Mr. Remolona said the revival of confidence, alongside inflation falling back to target, may have narrowed the central bank’s easing space.

Asked if the BSP can still afford to cut rates anew to support the economy, Mr. Remolona said: “It’s conceivable. Again, it’s based on the data. We have to review the data.”

The benchmark interest rate currently stands at 4.5%, the lowest in over three years.

The Monetary Board has so far delivered 200 basis points (bps) in cuts since it began its easing cycle in August 2024, including five straight 25-bp reductions last year.

Mr. Remolona noted that stabilizing inflation remains their priority in deciding on the monetary policy path.

“If we can maintain price stability, that will help with confidence,” he said.

In January, headline inflation came in at 2%, marking its comeback to the BSP’s 2%-4% target for the first time in nearly a year.

Inflation

Meanwhile, BSP Deputy Governor Zeno Ronald R. Abenoja said headline inflation may approach the 3% mark in the coming months before potentially breaching it by the second half of the year.

“If you look at the inflation path in our MPR (monetary policy report), it will move gradually close to 3% and then possibly a little above 3% by (the) second half,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the same event. “But after that, it will move closer to 3% again and then stabilize around that area.”

Mr. Remolona noted that he doesn’t mind inflation undershooting their target but said that an above-3% print worries him more.

The BSP expects headline inflation to average 3.2% by yearend, before easing to 3% in 2027. — Katherine K. Chan, Reporter

DTI eyes more investments in aerospace manufacturing

DTI eyes more investments in aerospace manufacturing

The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) is looking to attract investments in aerospace manufacturing and services as well as sustainable aviation fuel, an official said.

“The Philippines has strong capabilities in areas of parts manufacturing and MROs (maintenance, repair, overhaul),” Trade Undersecretary and Board of Investments (BoI) Managing Head Ceferino S. Rodolfo told BusinessWorld. “These include machining, plastic injection, assembly, packaging, and delivery,” he added.

Mr. Rodolfo said the Philippines can take advantage of opportunities as the industry pursues decarbonization.

“With more than 140 nations pledging for the target of Net Zero by 2050, the Philippines also recognizes the significance of sustainable aviation fuel in the global aviation industry’s decarbonization,” he added.

Mr. Rodolfo noted the Philippines has more than 15 million metric tons of biomass, which can be used for sustainable fuel. These are from rice, corn, coconut, and cassava, among others.

The country also has abundant feedstock concentrated in Central Luzon, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon), Western Visayas, Northern Mindanao, and Davao.

Mr. Rodolfo’s statement follows the participation of the country at the Singapore Airshow 2026 earlier this month, where the department facilitated business matching and target introductions with foreign investors, buyers, and attendees.

“DTI’s engagement at the airshow focuses on positioning the Philippines as a competitive location for aerospace manufacturing and services, including parts production, sub-assemblies, and MRO,” the Philippine Trade and Investment Center (PTIC)-Singapore said in a statement.

The DTI also advanced direct commercial discussions between Philippine firms and international aerospace companies.

“Singapore plays a central role in regional investment decision-making, with many Asia-Pacific manufacturing, MRO, and supply chain decisions taken by regional headquarters of global aerospace and aviation firms based here,” said PTIC-Singapore Commercial Counsellor Carla Regina P. Grepo.

During the event, she said that the PTIC-Singapore briefed aerospace and aviation companies on opportunities in aircraft parts manufacturing, sub-assemblies, and MRO in the Philippines.

“While some firms also referenced defense-related programs as part of their long-term outlook, the core discussions centered on commercial aerospace supply chains, procurement diversification, and expansion of MRO capabilities in Asia,” she added.

Citing data from the BoI, PTIC Singapore said that Philippine aerospace exports stood at USD 590.2 million in 2024, rising to USD 603.1 million in the first nine months of 2025. Major export markets included the US, Singapore, France, and China.

Although the country currently hosts Tier 1 and Tier 2 aerospace parts suppliers to Boeing and Airbus across industrial zones and airport-linked developments, the Philippines still face a lack of skilled workers.

To address this, Mr. Rodolfo said that the department has been working with human resource (HR) firms and relevant universities to explore potential areas of collaboration.

“The BoI is continuously engaging HR firms and workforce providers and has supported similar key players in the aerospace parts manufacturing sector, including Tier-1 companies like Collins Aerospace,” he said.

The BoI is also spearheading the Academe-Industry Matching (AIM!) Program, which aims to bridge the gap between education and industry needs.

“Through the AIM! campus roadshows, industry partners are able to increase awareness of the industries’ skills requirements and competencies, enabling high school students to have career options related to the featured industries,” Mr. Rodolfo said.

Apart from aerospace, the program also featured industries like information technology and business process management and electronics, among others.

Mr. Rodolfo also cited the role of Administrative Order No. 31 in advancing the aviation sector.

Issued in March last year, the order created the Philippine Semiconductor and Electronics Industry Roadmap as well as the Semiconductor and Electronics Advisory Council.

“Growing semiconductors and electronics through continued skills development will have a positive impact on the aviation sector,” he added.

Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA), which was among the sponsors of the Philippine Pavilion at the Singapore Airshow, recently announced investment pledges from Lufthansa Technik Philippines.

BCDA President and Chief Executive Officer Joshua M. Bingcang earlier said that it received a proposal from the company for a USD 400-million MRO facility at the Clark Aviation Capital in Pampanga.

The company already operates an MRO facility at Ninoy Aquino International Airport. — Justine Irish D. Tabile, Senior Reporter

Peso hits near four-month high as dollar falls on weak US data

Peso hits near four-month high as dollar falls on weak US data

The peso jumped to a near four-month high against the dollar on Wednesday following the release of softer-than-expected US retail sales data that could indicate weakness in the world’s largest economy.

The local unit gained by 24 centavos to close at PHP 58.29 versus the greenback from its PHP 58.53 finish on Tuesday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

This was the peso’s strongest finish in almost four months or since it closed at PHP 58.225 on Oct. 21, 2025.

The currency opened Wednesday’s trading session sharply stronger at PHP 58.44 against the dollar. Its intraday low was at just PHP 58.48, while its best showing was at PHP 58.255 against the greenback.

Dollars traded increased to USD 1.46 billion from USD 1.179 billion on Tuesday.

“The peso gained after the US retail sales report for December posted a flat growth despite the expected boost from the holiday season,” a trader said in an e-mail.

US retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December as households scaled back spending on motor vehicles and other big-ticket items, potentially setting consumer spending and the economy on a slower growth path heading into the new year, Reuters reported.

The flat reading in retail sales last month followed an unrevised 0.6% increase in November, the Commerce department’s Census Bureau said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, would rise by 0.4%.

Sales increased 2.4% year on year in December. October’s monthly sales were revised to show them declining 0.2% instead of 0.1% as previously estimated.

The dollar struggled across the board on Wednesday, particularly against the yen and Australian dollar, with the Japanese currency continuing to outperform after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory.

The dollar was down 0.75% against the yen at JPY 153.25, taking its losses to 2.5% since Friday’s close before Ms. Takaichi’s weekend win.

The euro was up 0.16% to USD 1.1914, sterling gained 0.3% to USD 1.3680, and the US currency was down 0.25% against the Swiss franc at 0.7659.

US jobs data for January, delayed from last week due to the short government shutdown, could be the next test for this weakening dollar trend later on Wednesday.

Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 70,000 last month after rising 50,000 in December, a Reuters survey of economists showed, and a large beat or miss will shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

The peso was also supported by Philippine foreign direct investments (FDI) data that indicated improved sentiment, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

Central bank data showed that FDI net inflows dipped by 0.3% year on year to USD 897 million in November. Still, this was the highest in four months or since the USD 1.271 billion in July.

For Thursday, the trader said the peso could rise further on the US jobs data to be released overnight.

The trader sees the local unit moving between PHP 58.15 and PHP 58.40 per dollar, while Mr. Ricafort expects it to range from PHP 58.20 to PHP 58.40. — Aaron Michael C. Sy with Reuters

PSEi jumps to seven-month high on strong peso

PSEi jumps to seven-month high on strong peso

The main index rose to a seven-month high on Wednesday, even soaring above the 6,500 line during the session, supported by a strong peso and as players looked ahead to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) policy meeting next week, where a rate cut is widely expected.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) went up by 0.37% or 24.22 points to close at 6,498.82, while the broader all shares index climbed by 0.37% or 13.43 points to end at 3,606.53.

This was the benchmark’s best finish in almost seven months or since it closed at 6,525.04 on July 14, 2025, which was also the last time the PSEi ended above the 6,500 line.

“The local market closed higher, backed by the appreciation of the local currency,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

On Wednesday, the peso jumped by 24 centavos to close at a near four-month high of PHP 58.29 versus the greenback, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

“The market was treading above the coveted 6,500 level before sliding down in the last minute of trading as bargain hunting activities prevailed, positioning ahead of the Monetary Board meeting next week,” AP Securities, Inc. said in a market note.

The PSEi opened Wednesday’s trading session at 6,492.33, rising from Tuesday’s close of 6,474.60. It hit an intraday high of 6,543.35 and a low of 6,474.04.

The BSP’s policy-setting Monetary Board will hold its first review for the year on Feb. 19, where analysts expect a sixth straight rate cut amid weak growth and manageable inflation.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said a cut is possible at this month’s meeting if they see the need to support domestic demand, especially after economic growth slumped to a five-year low in 2025.

However, on Wednesday, he said inflation returning within their target range last month and expectations of economic recovery amid the return of confidence may have narrowed their easing space.

The Monetary Board has lowered benchmark borrowing costs by a total of 200 basis points since its rate cut cycle began in August 2024.

Majority of sectoral indices closed in the green on Wednesday. Mining and oil rose by 1.54% or 276.79 points to 18,168.51; property increased by 1.21% or 26.96 points to 2,241.36; financials went up by 0.83% or 17.95 points to 2,176.62; and industrials climbed by 0.8% or 73.65 points to 9,199.67.

Meanwhile, holding firms fell by 0.2% or 10.58 points to 5,172.72, and services went down by 0.12% or 3.47 points to 2,685.70.

Advancers outnumbered decliners, 106 to 89, while 69 names closed unchanged.

Value turnover jumped to PHP 9.17 billion on Wednesday with 2.95 billion shares from the PHP 6.86 billion with 754.25 million issues that changed hands on Tuesday.

Net foreign buying decreased to PHP 834.62 million from PHP 1.01 billion in the previous session. — A.G.C. Magno

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