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Archives: Business World Article

Up to PHP 6B revenue loss seen due to Zero tariffs on US goods

Up to PHP 6B revenue loss seen due to Zero tariffs on US goods

The Philippine government is anticipating up to PHP 6 billion in foregone revenues following its decision to grant zero tariffs on selected US products imported into the country.

“Our initial estimate is something like PHP 3 billion to PHP 6 billion. It depends if everything is included,” Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto told reporters on the sidelines of the Post-State of the Nation Address (SONA) briefing on Tuesday.

While there is no final deal yet, Mr. Recto said the foregone revenue estimate assumes that the Philippines will grant zero tariffs on select products such as automobiles, wheat, soy and pharmaceuticals.

US President Donald J. Trump announced a 19% tariff rate for goods from the Philippines after a meeting with President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. in Washington. This was a slightly lower rate than the 20% that Mr. Trump threatened to impose, but higher than the 17% “reciprocal tariff” announced in April.

“We concluded our trade deal, whereby the Philippines is going open market with the United States, and zero tariffs,” Mr. Trump said.

Mr. Recto said zero tariffs on US wheat and pharmaceuticals would translate to lower prices for consumers.

“Ayaw ba natin ng murang pandesal? Walang tariff sa wheat. Pabor sa atin ’yun (Don’t we want cheaper pandesal? There’s no tariff on wheat. That’s favorable for us),” he said.

At the same time, Mr. Recto acknowledged that the Philippines’ exports to the US would be affected “initially” as a result of the 19% tariff.

“We have one of the lowest tariffs in the world… As a whole, we have a better deal than many other countries,” he said.

The Philippines’ new US tariff rate is now the same as Indonesia, and slightly lower than Vietnam’s 20%.

However, Mr. Trump said on Monday most trading partners that do not negotiate separate trade deals would soon face tariffs of 15% to 20% on their exports to the United States, well above the broad 10% tariff he imposed in April, Reuters reported.

Analysts said the foregone revenues from slashing tariffs on some US goods are “minimal.”

“Yes, the P3-billion to P6-billion revenue loss sounds minimal in the grand scheme, but it’s not just about numbers — it’s about positioning. The deal opens the door to cheaper US goods like medicine, feeds (soyabeans and wheat) and cars, which helps consumers and could ease inflation,” Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co. said in a Viber message.

Mr. Ravelas said the government has to monitor if local industries “get squeezed” as a result of the deal.

“Bottom line: it’s favorable for now, but we must stay agile and protect domestic competitiveness,” he said.

Union Bank Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said the foregone revenue is a “manageable trade-off,” noting the deal’s long-term benefits in investment, defense, and technology cooperation.

“More importantly, the deal preserves access for Philippine exporters to a key market and opens doors for deeper cooperation in investment, defense, and technology — contributing to the country’s long-term growth and resilience,” he said in a Viber message.

John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said the key is to ensure the gains from improved market access translates to more jobs and export growth which would offset the foregone revenue.

“If this concession helped lower the tariff on our goods and safeguard export competitiveness, albeit within limited bargaining power, especially in key sectors like electronics and garments, then the trade-off can be deemed acceptable on such ground,” he said in a Viber message.

Meanwhile, Jose Enrique A. Africa, executive director at IBON Foundation, said the reduction in tariff revenues would slash public funds for essential services.

“We still don’t even know the full extent of what deal President Marcos Jr. struck with the US, and the government is being opaque about any other economic, political or military concessions it might have given,” he said.

“But if the grossly one-sided tariff deal is any indication, the ambiguity could very well be hiding something even worse. Which could be the reason for the deal’s conspicuous omission from the President’s SONA.”

IBON Foundation had earlier estimated foregone revenues to reach PHP 3.97 billion as a result from the zero-tariff treatment on some US goods. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporter

Local shares drop further as market digests SONA

Local shares drop further as market digests SONA

Philippine stocks closed lower for a fourth straight day on Tuesday as the market reacted to President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s State of the Nation Address (SONA).

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) dropped by 0.85% or 54.33 points to close at 6,325.42, while the broader all shares index fell by 0.35% or 13.41 points to 3,780.08.

“The local market extended its decline as investors digested Mr. Marcos’ latest SONA,” Philstocks Financial Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message. “Investors expressed dismay as some of the most pressing issues currently were not mentioned in the SONA including online gaming regulations, US-Philippines trade relations, and fiscal consolidation plans.”

In his fourth SONA, Mr. Marcos talked about economic growth, food security, energy reforms, and social services, but left out topics such as online gambling as well as the 19% tariff on Philippine exports to the US that will take effect on Aug. 1.

“The PSEi declined as the market is still digesting the news that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is set for two more rate cuts for this year. Also, prices are already reflecting the sentiments of the investors regarding the earnings of various companies,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

The Philippine central bank is committed to maintaining its easing bias and is on course to cut policy rates twice this year, its governor said on Monday, though the timing will depend on economic growth and inflation, Reuters reported.

“We’re still on that same easing cycle,” BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. told Reuters. “We’re doing baby steps. That’s a good sign, that means we’re on track.”

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is closely monitoring economic indicators to guide its decisions, including whether to implement a rate cut at its upcoming Aug. 28 policy meeting. He emphasized that weaker-than-expected growth and better-than-projected inflation would be key triggers for further easing.

Almost all sectoral indices closed lower on Tuesday. Services sank by 2.01% or 45.77 points to 2,224.39; mining and oil decreased by 1.72% or 159.41 points to 9,093.87; holding firms went down by 0.69% or 38.05 points to 5,403.78; financials retreated by 0.07% or 1.65 points to 2,236.31; and industrials declined by 0.79 point to 9,096.97.

Meanwhile, property inched up by 0.04% or 1 point to 2,359.42.

Value turnover rose to PHP 6.86 billion on Tuesday with 1.04 billion shares exchanged from P6.61 billion with 1.11 billion shares traded on Monday.

Decliners outnumbered advancers, 117 versus 70, while 62 names were unchanged.

Net foreign selling increased to PHP 429.15 million on Tuesday from PHP 156 million on Monday. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave with Reuters

Marcos skips e-gaming, tariffs in SONA

Marcos skips e-gaming, tariffs in SONA

Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. delivered his fourth State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Monday, notably omitting two controversial issues facing his administration: the proposed ban on online gambling and US tariff increases that threaten growth.

While the President spoke at length about economic growth, food security, energy reforms, and social services, he was silent on legislation seeking to outlaw or better regulate e-gaming.

The omission comes despite mounting concerns over e-gambling’s mounting toll on Filipino families with members grappling with addiction, and separate pending bills in the Senate and House of Representatives that seek to either ban or regulate the industry.

Mr. Marcos is facing growing public frustration as many Filipinos say the promises he made during his 2022 campaign remain largely unmet three years into his term.

He ran on a platform of economic revival, vowing to lower rice prices, strengthen agriculture and spark a new wave of industrialization. But for some Filipinos, those pledges have yet to translate into real improvements in daily life.

Mr. Marcos also made no mention of the 19% US tariffs on Philippine goods that will take effect on Aug. 1. Critics say the tariff increases disproportionately hurt low-income consumers already grappling with inflation, a concern that remains unaddressed in the administration’s economic narrative.

“Based on data, our economy is looking good,” the President said in his speech in Filipino that lasted an hour and 10 minutes, citing lower inflation and higher investor confidence.

But he acknowledged that these gains are meaningless “if our fellowmen struggle and are burdened.”

“The President’s SONA stumbled from the very start with the false premise of the economy doing well,” Jose Enrique A. Africa, executive director of IBON Foundation, said in a Viber message.

“This is in denial of slowing growth, high prices today after high inflation in his first three years, deficits and debt far above targets upon taking office, and jobs figures hiding worsening pay and quality of work,” he added.

The omission of legislative priorities is troubling and signals disinterest in growing poverty, hunger and joblessness, he added.

Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry Chairman George T. Barcelon said failure to act decisively on online gambling could lead to broader public safety concerns. “The government just has to be vigilant because normally when it comes to gambling, you attract the wrong kind of lawlessness,” he said by telephone.

“The SONA was a direct response to the midterms,” Ederson DT. Tapia, a political science professor at the University of Makati, said in a Facebook Messenger chat. “Most of the issues covered were those that mattered to the least, lost and last. He avoided topics that can be divisive too.”

The President reiterated his commitment to job creation, small business support and agriculture. He said the administration had proven that rice could be sold at PHP 20 per kilo without hurting farmers, citing limited rollouts in select areas.

He vowed to expand the program nationwide through more so-called Kadiwa stores.

Despite the upbeat tone, some analysts found the speech lacking in urgency. There was no reference to more aggressive measures to protect consumers from price shocks due to tariffs.

“We commend the President for pushing his campaign promise of P20 per kilo of rice,” Jayson H. Cainglet, executive director of the Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura, said in a Viber message.

‘Not just lip service’

He blamed the “self-inflicted disaster that is Executive Order No. 62,” which lowered rice import tariffs to 15%, as the principal culprit for the unprecedented drop in rough rice farmgate prices, noting that the landed cost of rice imports is now only PHP 23 to PHP 25 per kilo.

Mr. Cainglet said the government should raise the rough rice procurement budget to P50 billion and quickly grant cash incentives to rice farmers using the P4-billion excess funds under the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund from last year.

Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc. President Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis, Jr. said he was “happy” that Mr. Marcos mentioned initiatives to help small and medium enterprises including increased funding. “I hope that this is not just lip service,” he told BusinessWorld by telephone.

But he was hoping that the President would say something about exports. “Unfortunately, I think it wasn’t there. I’m not sure also if he mentioned anything about the tariffs.” 

Mr. Marcos also touted gains in renewable energy, education, digitalization and healthcare. He announced efforts to expand electrification, free dialysis treatment and digital learning tools for public school teachers and students.

“Compared with last year, his speech did not have that ‘wow’ moment when he would surprise or put the crowd in awe,” Arjan P. Aguirre, assistant professor of political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said via Messenger chat. “No strong takes on the pressing issues of the day.”

“The closest that we can highlight here is the mention of the flood control project, which still did not sound convincing since everything would still depend on him — no mention of institutionalizing changes like mechanisms and safeguards in the process itself,” he added.

In his speech, the President ordered the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) to investigate flood control projects that failed during recent storms, calling out widespread corruption in infrastructure spending and warning of criminal charges for those found guilty.

He cited his recent inspections after the onslaught of the southwest monsoon and tropical cyclones Crising, Dante, and Emong, which exposed the collapse and dysfunction of flood mitigation systems across the country.

“I saw firsthand that many flood control projects were poorly built, collapsed, or worse — never even existed,” the President said in Filipino. “Let’s stop pretending. The public knows there was racketeering in these projects.”

Mr. Marcos accused unnamed officials and contractors of pocketing public funds through “kickbacks, initiatives, errata, SOPs (standard operating procedures), for the boys,” and called out their lack of shame.

“You should be ashamed of yourselves in front of your fellow Filipinos… especially for what you’ve done to the families whose homes were swept away or submerged in floodwaters,” he said. “You should be even more ashamed for burdening our children with debt from money you simply stole.”

To address the issue, he said the DPWH must immediately submit a list of all flood control projects launched or completed in the past three years across all regions.

Second, regional project monitoring committees will review the list to identify incomplete, substandard or ghost projects.

“We will publish this list,” Mr. Marcos said. “The public, as witnesses to these projects, will be free to review them and share what they know to help with the investigation.”

He added that an audit and performance review would accompany the probe to trace how public funds were used. “In the coming months, everyone found guilty in this investigation — along with their contractor accomplices — will face charges.”

“The people deserve to know the full truth. There must be accountability for the damage and corruption,” he said.

In a further warning to lawmakers, Mr. Marcos declared he would not approve any 2026 national budget that deviates from his government’s national expenditure program.

“I will return any proposed general appropriations bill that is not fully aligned with the national expenditure program,” he said. “I’m willing to do this even if we end up with a reenacted budget.”

“I will not approve any budget that is not aligned with the government’s plans for the Filipino people,” he added.

Leonardo A. Lanzona, an economics professor at the Ateneo de Manila University, said a reenacted budget “would never happen” given all the promises Mr. Marcos made.

“This is a contradiction,” he said in a Messenger chat. “Without any accomplishments, the President has promised to bribe us with candies to get our approval and distract us from the problems, including the high tariffs we are facing.”

The President’s remarks marked one of the strongest condemnations of government corruption in his term so far, signaling a tougher stance ahead of the 2026 budget season.

But the absence of any statement on pressing regulatory issues raised questions about the administration’s priorities. With three years left in his term, analysts and lawmakers alike are watching to see whether the President will confront these concerns head-on — or continue to sidestep them.

Mr. Barcelon said the President deserves credit for addressing inefficiencies in public works spending, and welcomed his remarks on healthcare, education, and support for farmers, calling them “all good.”

But the government’s “very high” debt is concerning, he said by telephone. “And that is something that can only be resolved if our economy would be fast-tracked from 5-6%, probably to 7-8%.”

He warned that without faster growth, the country’s rising debt burden, which stood at P16.92 trillion as of May, could derail the President’s social pledges.

“This issue of incurring such a huge debt would continue. And that might make all his promises to the people on free education, free health — everything is almost free — very challenging.”

Mr. Barcelon also expressed surprise that Mr. Marcos made no mention of the country’s trade policy with the US, calling it a missed opportunity to clarify the direction of one of the Philippines’ most important economic partnerships.

He described the overall tone of the speech as “a pep talk for the people to hear,” and reiterated that the private sector remains committed to supporting the government. — Norman P. Aquino, Special Reports Editor with Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Justine Irish D. Tabile, Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio and Adrian H. Halili

Auto sales inch up despite drop in demand for cars

Auto sales inch up despite drop in demand for cars

New vehicle sales inched up by an annual 3.6% in June as a double-digit surge in commercial vehicle sales helped offset a 35% decline in sales of passenger cars, an industry report showed.

A joint report by the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI) and the Truck Manufacturers Association (TMA) showed new vehicle sales increased to 40,483 units in June from 39,088 units in the same month a year ago.

Auto Sales (June 2025)Month on month, car sales went up by 1.8% from 39,775 units sold in May.

In June, passenger car sales slumped by 34.9% to 6,922 from 10,628 units sold in the same month in 2024. Month on month, sales went down by 12.32% from 7,895 units sold in May.

“While passenger car sales reached 6,922 units, ongoing market shifts and evolving buyer preferences present opportunities for innovation and recovery in this segment,” said CAMPI President Rommel R. Gutierrez in a statement on Monday.

Meanwhile, sales of commercial vehicles, which accounted for 82.9% of June sales, jumped by 17.9% to 33,561 from 28,460 units a year ago. Month on month, sales increased by 5.3% from 31,880 units in May.

Broken down, light commercial vehicle sales increased by 25.3% year on year to 25,501 units in June, while sales of Asian utility vehicles inched up by 0.3% to 7,199.

Sales of light-duty trucks and buses went up by an annual 6.4% to 532 units, while sales of large trucks surged by 41.5% to 58. Medium truck sales dropped by 30% to 271 units in June.   

For the January-to-June period, new vehicle sales increased by 2% to 230,912 units from 226,279 units a year ago.

Passenger car sales declined by 23.8% to 45,647 in the first six months from 59,875 in the same period last year.

Commercial vehicle sales grew by 11.3% to 185,265 units in the first half from 166,404 a year ago.

“As the industry heads into the second half of the year, manufacturers and dealers remain focused on enhancing customer experience, introducing updated vehicle lineups, and supporting market recovery across all segments — including passenger cars,” Mr. Gutierrez said.

Philippine Institute for Development Studies Senior Research Fellow John Paolo R. Rivera said that the decline in passenger sales reflects consumers’ concern over elevated interest rates, high pump prices and overall economic uncertainty.

“High interest rates, elevated fuel and maintenance costs, and economic uncertainty are likely dampening demand for big-ticket purchases like cars,” he said in a Viber message.

“At the same time, we may be seeing a structural shift in mobility preferences as more Filipinos are relying on shared, digital, or more affordable transport options instead of buying new vehicles,” he added.

Meanwhile, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said that there could be some demand shift from passenger cars to motorcycles amid global economic uncertainties due to Mr. Trump’s tariffs.

“(Motorcycles) are more affordable to acquire and maintain with much lower costs, can better navigate through heavy traffic, and require less space in parking areas at residences as well as in commercial areas,” he said in a Viber message.

“[There is] also increased demand for motorcycle taxis and delivery services as an alternative to passenger cars and commercial vehicles,” he added.

Meanwhile, Mr. Ricafort said that electrified vehicles (EVs), including hybrids, are new sources of demand for the industry.

More EV players coming into the country means consumers have more choices in terms of price, technology and quality, he added.

“It becomes more responsive to customers ever-changing requirements… with better terms and prices,” he added.

In June, the industry booked 3,057 EV sales, down by 15.4% from the 3,613 units sold in May, as sales of battery EVs fell by 17.5% to 660 and hybrid EVs dropped by 15.7% to 2,355 units. Plug-in hybrid EVs posted a 110% increase month on month to 42 units in June.

For the first six months, EV sales stood at 13,490 units, accounting for a 5.84% market share.

Toyota Motor Philippines Corp. remained the market leader, with sales of 111,276 units in the January-to-June period, up 6.6% from 104,350 units a year ago. It accounted for a 48.19% share of the market.

Mitsubishi Motors Philippines Corp. ranked second with a market share of 19.06% after posting a 3.3% annual increase in sales to 44,021 units in the first six months.

In third spot was Nissan Philippines, Inc., whose sales dropped 14.9% to 11,859. It had a market share of 5.14%.

Rounding out the top five were Ford Motor Co. Phils., Inc., which saw a 24.3% drop in sales to 10,953, and Suzuki Phils., Inc., which saw an 11.2% increase in sales to 10,732 units.

For this year, CAMPI has set a sales target of 500,000 units. Last year, the industry sold 467,252 units. — Justine Irish D. Tabile, Reporter

Philippine stocks extend decline before Marcos’ SONA

Philippine stocks extend decline before Marcos’ SONA

Philippine stocks ended lower for the third straight day on Monday before President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. delivered his State of the Nation Address (SONA) after the market’s close.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) dropped by 0.52% or 33.43 points to close at 6,379.75, while the broader all shares index declined by 0.08% or 3.38 points to 3,793.49.

The PSEi opened the session higher at 6,411.26 and even hit a high of 6,417.43 before succumbing to weakness by the closing bell.

“The PSE started the week on a negative tone… The local market dropped as investors took a cautious stance while waiting for President Marcos’ SONA,” Philstocks Financial Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

“Investors are going to pay close attention to the SONA, particularly regarding which industries might receive more support from the government, face stricter regulation, and the overall direction of the local economy,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

Mr. Marcos delivered his fourth SONA at the Batasang Pambansa in Quezon City on Monday. Before the SONA, Senator Francis “Chiz” G. Escudero and Leyte Rep. Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez were reelected as Senate President and House Speaker, respectively, for the 20th Congress.

“The peso’s pullback for the day also weighed on the local bourse,” Mr. Tantiangco said. The peso dropped by nine centavos to close at PHP 57.20 per dollar on Monday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

“Moreover, investors are still waiting for the PSEi rebalancing that might also affect price reactions,” Mr. Limlingan added.

“While the trend remains upward, investors should remain mindful of potential near-term consolidation as market sentiment evolves.”

Almost all sectoral indices closed lower on Monday. Mining and oil went down by 1.68% or 158.7 points to 9,253.28; property sank by 0.8% or 19.14 points to 2,358.42; financials decreased by 0.66% or 14.97 points to 2,237.96; holding firms fell by 0.62% or 34.45 points to 5,441.83; and industrials retreated by 0.57% or 52.18 points to 9,097.76.

Meanwhile, services rose by 1.52% or 34.09 points to 2,270.16.

“Bloomberry Resorts Corp. was the day’s index leader, climbing 2.7% to P4.56. Universal Robina Corp. was the main index laggard, falling 2.65% to P92,” Mr. Tantiangco said.

Value turnover went down to P6.61 billion on Monday with 1.11 billion shares exchanged from the P6.95 billion with 1.69 billion shares traded on Friday.

Decliners bested advancers, 108 versus 90, while 48 names were unchanged.

Net foreign selling was at PHP 155.996 million on Monday, a reversal of the PHP 113.74 million in net buying recorded on Friday. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Auto sales on track to hit 500,000 by yearend

Auto sales on track to hit 500,000 by yearend

The Philippine automotive industry is on track to sell 500,000 units by yearend, an industry official said.

“The auto industry is doing very well. This year, actually, it is up by about 6% as of the first half. So it is really doing well,” GT Capital Auto and Mobility Holdings, Inc. (GTCAM) Chairman Vicente Jose S. Socco told reporters on the sidelines of the Auto Parts & Vehicles Expo 2025 on Friday.

Mr. Socco said the Philippine auto industry is the second-fastest growing in the region after Vietnam.

“I think (500,000 sales) is possible. As of the first half of this year, if we annualize it, I think we are tracking just about 490,000. So hopefully the second semester will not have any major hiccups or bumps along the road,” he added.

For this year, the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI) set a sales target of 500,000 units. Last year, the industry sold 467,252 units.

The latest report by CAMPI and the Truck Manufacturers Association (TMA) showed that new vehicle sales increased by 1.7% to 190,429 units in the January-to-May period, from 187,191 units a year ago.

“So, a very positive outlook for this year. Hopefully breaking half a million, that puts us in the same category as Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. It’s really a very strong signal about the motorization of this country,” he said.

Mr. Socco said that the government’s push to expand infrastructure and road networks is also encouraging motorization.

“I think what we expect from the government is really how to promote more local component manufacturing. That’s very important,” he said.

“And I think now that the vehicle population is growing to half a million, we’re starting to get to the point where we have economies of scale. So I think this is something that we should be looking forward to,” he added.

Meanwhile, Mr. Socco said that the industry is still waiting on the specifics of the US-Philippines trade deal to gauge how this will impact the automotive sector.

“We are not exporting cars to the US. We are exporting components, and those might be affected. But as I understand it, the details are still being worked out,” he added.

Last week, US President Donald J. Trump announced that a 19% tariff will be imposed on Filipino goods entering the US market starting Aug. 1.

After his meeting with Mr. Trump, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. said the Philippines will open up the automotive sector to US imports as part of the trade deal.

“American brands are already present here. But for the most part, they are sourcing their vehicles from ASEAN, where there is already zero tariff,” Mr. Socco said.

For this reason, he said that US car brands will likely keep sourcing their vehicles from Southeast Asia as the shipping cost is much cheaper.

“But of course, with the zero tariffs, they can introduce more models. There are also completely built units that are not produced in the ASEAN region, which they may hope to bring into the market, which will be good for the consumers,” he added.

On Friday, Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina A. Roque said that the government is hoping to complete negotiations with the US by Aug. 1.

“We have already finalized the zero tariff, and then those that are not included, which are the agriculture products,” Ms. Roque said.

She said that the 19% US tariff is the final rate for now as it is what Mr. Trump has announced.

“But of course, they are still talking; of course everybody wants to bring it down,” she said.

However, Ms. Roque said the country has already given “the best we can give” during the negotiations with the US. “We cannot give agriculture, like sugar and rice,” she added. — Justine Irish D. Tabile, Reporter

Loan demand likely steady in 3rd quarter — BSP survey

Loan demand likely steady in 3rd quarter — BSP survey

Most Philippine banks expect loan demand to remain steady in the third quarter, according to a survey by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

In the latest edition of the Senior Bank Loan Officers’ Survey (SLOS), the BSP said the banking sector anticipates demand for both business and household loans to remain unchanged.

“In the (third) quarter, 71.4% of banks said they expect loan demand from businesses to stay the same, 1.8% expect a decline, and 26.8% expect an increase.”

Meanwhile, 72.5% of respondents also see demand for household loans to stay the same during the quarter while 27.5% expect demand to rise.

“No bank expects to see a decline in households’ credit demand in the third quarter,” it added.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the BSP’s rate-cutting cycle increased banks’ loanable funds and reduced intermediation costs. This helps spur demand for loans that boost business activities, he added.

Bank lending rose by 11.3% year on year to PHP 13.37 trillion as of May from PHP 12.02 trillion, faster than the 11.2% expansion a month earlier, latest data from BSP showed.

The Monetary Board began its easing cycle in August last year, lowering interest rates by a total of 125 basis points so far. This brought the benchmark to 5.25%.

“Possible BSP rate cuts for the rest of 2025 and possible RRR cut in 2026 would further help reduce financing costs that would help sustain loan demand,” he added.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has signaled the possibility of two more rate cuts amid benign inflation.

The survey showed that businesses’ demand for credit was mostly unchanged (75%) in the second quarter compared to the quarter prior. On the other hand, 19.6% of banks recorded higher loan demand while 5.4% registered a decline.

Meanwhile, 77.5% of respondents said demand for household loans were likewise steady in the second quarter versus the first quarter.

“10% reported lower loan demand, and 12.5% indicated an increase in loan demand,” it added.

Credit standards


Meanwhile, the survey also showed that Philippine banks expect to maintain lending standards for businesses and households in the July-September period.

“Among respondent banks, 91.1% said they will likely keep their lending standards for enterprises the same in the third quarter, compared with 82.1% in the second quarter.”

“Similarly, about 85% of banks are expected to maintain their lending standards for households from 82.5% in the same review period,” it said.

Credit standards cover credit scores, income requirements, collateral, loan size, interest rate, and repayment period.

Based on the diffusion index (DI), the survey showed there is an expectation of net tightening of credit standards for businesses (5.4%) and for households (5%) in the third quarter.

“This indicates that any future change is more likely to be a tightening than a loosening. In the second quarter, there was a net tightening of 14.3% for loans to enterprises and 12.5% for loans to households.”

The central bank uses a modal approach for the SLOS, which means the results of the survey are analyzed by looking at the option (tightening, easing, or unchanged) with the highest share of responses.

Under the DI approach, a positive DI for credit standards indicates that the number of banks that have tightened their credit standards exceeds those that eased (net tightening), while a negative DI indicates the opposite (net easing).

Meanwhile, unchanged means the number of banks that have tightened is equal to those that eased their credit standards. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

SONA, firms’ results in focus as mart seeks leads

SONA, firms’ results in focus as mart seeks leads

Philippine shares may move sideways this week, with President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s fourth State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Monday taking center stage and as investors await more corporate results.

On Friday, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) went down by 0.48% or 30.98 points to close at 6,413.18, while the broader all shares index retreated by 0.3% or 11.52 points to 3,796.87.

Meanwhile, week on week, the PSEi jumped by 1.74% or 109.46 points from the 6,303.72 finish on July 18.

“Despite the onslaught of typhoons Dante and Emong, the PSEi remarkably rallied… defying global anxieties over US tariffs,” online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said in a market note.

“The local market made a comeback last week, regaining its ground above the 6,400 level as bargain hunters take opportunities. However, trading last week was tepid, implying that the climb did not have strong conviction,” Philstocks Financial Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

For this week, the market will look for fresh leads, with the spotlight expected to be on Mr. Marcos’ SONA, he said.

“Detailed plans on how to keep inflation low and how to re-accelerate economic growth may boost investors’ sentiment,” Mr. Tantiangco said.

In the first quarter, Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.4%, weaker than expected and slower than the 5.9% expansion in the same quarter last year.

Economic managers last month lowered the full-year GDP growth target to 5.5%-6.5% from 6%-8% previously.

“Investors are also expected to watch out for the upcoming second quarter corporate reports. Robust results are expected to lift the local market,” he added.

Mr. Tantiangco put the PSEi’s major resistance at 6,600 after the index was able to re-establish support at 6,400 last week.

“However, it is having a hard time securing position above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Moving forward, the 200-day EMA could be tested further,” he said. “The market’s moving average convergence/divergence line is about to cross above the signal line. If this proceeds, it will signal positive momentum for the bourse.”

For its part, 2TradeAsia.com put the PSEi’s immediate support at 6,300 and resistance at 6,600.

“The week ahead demands balancing portfolio resilience against global and local headwinds. We reiterate our call to prioritize high-liquidity, domestically focused valued stocks to navigate near-term risks while capitalizing on BSP’s (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’) supportive policy,” it said. 

“In these trying times, stay vigilant for potential pivots into hedge plays should inflation surprise. Markets favor the prepared — seize opportunities with caution and prudence,” 2TradeAsia.com added. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Philippine trade concessions to US won’t ‘harm’ local producers

Philippine trade concessions to US won’t ‘harm’ local producers

The Department of Agriculture (DA) said it has been assured by Philippine trade negotiators that no concessions will be made to the US that will harm domestic producers of agricultural goods.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said the reassurance covers rice and sugar, which the Philippines does not import from the US, as well as corn, chicken, fish, and pork.

Left out of his list is wheat, which the Philippines does not produce in commercial quantities, which domestic industries use for food production and animal feed.

The Philippine negotiating team, led by Secretary Frederick D. Go, who heads the Office of the  Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs, and Trade Secretary Maria Cristina Aldeguer-Roque, made the reassurances as they negotiate the technical details of the preliminary trade deal with the US, under which Philippine exports pay a US tariff of 19%.

President Donald J. Trump last week said the Philippines has granted duty-free access to some US imports.

The DA, citing Malacañang, said a final trade agreement is still being hammered out by trade negotiators.

“Secretary Go… assured the Philippines has not made any concessions that would harm local producers,” it said.

The Philippine negotiating team has said that any trade agreement “must strike a balance between improving market access and safeguarding the livelihoods of Filipino workers and farmers,” the DA said. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

Philippine budget deficit balloons in June

Philippine budget deficit balloons in June

The National Government’s (NG) budget deficit ballooned to PHP 241.6 billion in June as state spending outpaced revenue collections, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) said on Thursday.

Data from the Treasury showed the Philippines’ budget deficit widened by 15.56% to PHP 241.6 billion in June from PHP 209.1 billion in the same month a year ago.

Month on month, the budget deficit widened by 66.46% from PHP 145.2 billion in May.

National Government fiscal performanceIn June, state spending jumped by 8.49% to PHP 548.5 billion from PHP 505.6 billion in June 2024.

The BTr attributed the faster spending to higher National Tax Allotment shares of local government units, the annual block grant to the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, personnel services, and interest payments.

Primary spending — which refers to total expenditures minus interest payments — grew by 9.14% to PHP 491.1 billion in June from PHP 450 billion a year earlier. This accounted for 89.53% of the total June disbursements.

Interest payments increased by 3.19% to PHP 57.4 billion in June this year from PHP 55.6 billion in the same month in 2024.

NG’s primary deficit stood at PHP 184.2 billion in June, up by 20.04% from PHP 153.4 billion in the same month last year.

Meanwhile, revenue collections went up by 3.5% to PHP 306.9 billion in June from PHP 296.5 billion in the same month last year.

“The sustained double-digit growth in tax collections offset the high base effect of the one-off remittances under nontax revenues last year,” the BTr said.

Tax revenues increased by 12.35% to PHP 280.1 billion in June from PHP 249.3 billion in the same month in 2024.

The bulk came from the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR), which collected PHP 200.5 billion in June, up by 16.24% from PHP 172.5 billion a year ago.

Collections by the Bureau of Customs (BoC) rose by 3.23% to PHP 77 billion, while other offices’ revenues rose by 16.71% to PHP 2.6 billion.

On the other hand, nontax revenue slumped by 43.25% year on year to PHP 26.8 billion in June “due to the high base effect of one-off remittances in 2024.”

The BTr’s revenues surged by 116.49% to P16.1 billion in June from PHP 7.4 billion a year ago, thanks to the NG’s bigger share in profits of the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp. as well as dividend remittance from the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp.

Income from other offices also dropped by 73.04% to PHP 10.7 billion in June.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the budget deficit in June was the widest in three months since March.

“Budget deficits could increase the need for additional borrowings from a cash flow perspective,” he said.

First-half gap

In the first six months of the year, the NG budget deficit widened by 24.69% to PHP 765.5 billion from the PHP 613.9-billion gap last year.

The BTr said the budget deficit remained relatively within target as it was 0.63% above the programmed PHP 760.7 billion for the first half.

Revenue collection in the first half increased by 5.15% to PHP 2.26 trillion from PHP 2.15 trillion in the same period in 2024. This was 0.89% lower than the programmed PHP 2.28 trillion for the six-month period.

Tax revenues rose by 10.74% to PHP 2.03 trillion as of end-June, 1.3% below the PHP 2.06 trillion program.

BIR collections increased by 14.11% to PHP 1.55 trillion as of end-June, driven mainly by increases in corporate income tax, value-added tax, and personal income tax. However, this was 1.52% below the PHP 1.58-trillion program.

“Additional sources of higher revenue came from increased excise tax collections on tobacco, including electronic cigarettes, through the Bureau’s continued efforts to intensify the crackdown on the illicit tobacco trade and the strict implementation of the mandatory excise tax stamps on vapor products,” it said.

Higher percentage tax collections from banks and financial institutions also helped boost BIR revenues.

The BoC collection inched up by 0.71% to PHP 458.8 billion as of end-June, but 0.58% below the PHP 461.4-billion program.

Nontax revenues slumped by 27.53% to PHP 227.7 billion in the January-to-June period. It exceeded the PHP 221.4 billion program by 2.87% amid better-than-expected income of the BTr.

Treasury income slipped by 11.37% to PHP 145.3 billion in the first half, while other offices’ income fell by 45.14% to PHP 82.5 billion.

Meanwhile, state spending rose by 9.49% to PHP 3.03 trillion as of end-June, from P2.76 trillion a year ago. It was just 0.51% below the PHP 3.04-trillion disbursement program for the period.

Primary expenditures rose by 9.41% to PHP 2.61 trillion as of end-June, while interest payments increased by 9.97% to PHP 414.8 billion.

In the first half, the NG’s primary deficit widened by 48.16% to PHP 350.7 billion. It exceeded the first-half program of PHP 343.7 billion by 2.04%.

“Although interest payments grew, the bulk of the deficit growth can be attributed to higher expenses due to government projects and disbursement to local government units,” Reinielle Matt M. Erece, an economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc., said.

“The budget deficit can still be managed as revenue collection is still strong and debt obligations are growing at a modest pace. As long as each expenditure results in better productivity then the deficit may still be manageable,” he said.

For this year, the NG’s deficit ceiling is capped at PHP 1.56 trillion or 5.5% of gross domestic product. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

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