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THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
economy-ss-8
Inflation Update: Weak demand softens shocks
July 4, 2025 DOWNLOAD
948 x 535 px AdobeStock_433552847
Economic Updates
Monthly Economic Update: Fed cuts incoming   
June 30, 2025 DOWNLOAD
equities-3may23-2
Consensus Pricing
Consensus Pricing – June 2025
June 25, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports

Archives: Business World Article

Metro Manila commuters face higher LRT-1 fares

Metro Manila commuters face higher LRT-1 fares

Commuters in Metro Manila will pay higher fares for the Light Rail Transit Line 1 (LRT-1) starting April 2 after the Department of Transportation (DoTr) approved a new fare matrix.

In a letter dated Feb. 14 but published on Tuesday, the DoTr said it had approved the petition of Light Rail Manila Corp. (LRMC) for adjustments in the LRT-1 fare matrix.

The letter was signed by Transportation Undersecretary for Railways Jeremy S. Regino.

Beginning April 2, the boarding fare will be raised to PHP 16.25 from PHP 13.29, while the distance per kilometer fare will be increased to PHP 1.47 from PHP 1.21.

Based on the approved fare matrix, the maximum fare for a single-journey end-to-end trip will increase by P10 to P55 from P45. This will cover the trip from FPJ Station (formerly Roosevelt) in Quezon City to Baclaran Station in Pasay City, including the last station of the Cavite extension Phase 1.

Meanwhile, stored value cardholders will pay PHP 9 more for the end-to-end trip, bringing the fare to PHP 52.

The approved rate is lower than LRMC’s proposal to raise the end-to-end-trip fare to PHP 60 for single-journey tickets and PHP 58 for stored value cards.

LRMC President and Chief Executive Officer Enrico R. Benipayo said the company is grateful for the approval of new fares.

“In the past 10 years of operating and maintaining the 40-year-old railway line, this will only be the second time that LRMC has been allowed to implement fare adjustments for LRT-1,” he said in a statement.

The private operator took over LRT-1 from Light Rail Transit Authority (LRTA) in 2015.

The company said the newly approved fare matrix, which is lower than its petition, is the same as its fare adjustment petition in 2022.

Under its concession agreement, the private operator may seek a fare adjustment once every two years. Mr. Benipayo has said previously the approved rate in 2023 is still well below the notional fare and has resulted in a fare deficit of PHP 2.17 billion.

“Public transport is a service that requires continuous investment in maintenance, upgrades and expansion. Countries with world-class transport systems such as Singapore and Japan adjust fares regularly to keep services efficient and safe. We are thankful to our partners in government for their support in ensuring that we can sustain the necessary upgrades,” Mr. Benipayo said.

LRMC reiterated that it has made substantial operational improvements and system upgrades for LRT-1, which includes the completion of phase 1 of the LRT-1 Cavite extension last year.  The second and third phases of construction of the LRT-1 Cavite extension may begin next year if right-of-way acquisition issues are resolved.

“LRMC has since introduced new trains, station upgrades and better service efficiency,” Mr. Benipayo said.

He also justified the fare adjustment as LRMC also improved LRT-1’s cycle time — the average time for a train to complete an end-to-end journey — from 106 minutes or almost two hours to 91 minutes in 2024.

Rene S. Santiago, former president of the Transportation Science Society of the Philippines, said the approval of the LRT-1 fare hike is a necessary step since the government has to comply with its commitments under the public-private partnership (PPP) deal.

“(This) clears the way for more PPP tenders in the future. More than that, all public transport — rail, bus, jeepney — deserve long-delayed fare adjustments,” he said in a Viber message.

Meanwhile, Renato M. Reyes, Jr., secretary-general of Bagong Alyansang Makabayan (Bayan), said they are not surprised by the approval of the fare increase.

He called for a review of the private operator’s concession agreement which allows them to adjust fares every two years.

In a statement, transport group PISTON National President Mody T. Floranda called the fare increase unjustified and would hurt the pockets of ordinary Filipinos.

LRMC is a joint venture of Ayala Corp., Metro Pacific Light Rail Corp. and Macquarie Infrastructure Holdings (Philippines) Pte. Ltd.

Metro Pacific Light Rail is a unit of Metro Pacific Investments Corp., which is one of three Philippine subsidiaries of Hong Kong’s First Pacific Co. Ltd., the others being PLDT Inc. and Philex Mining Corp. Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has an interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. – Ashley Erika O. Jose, Reporter

Below-target growth to support further rate cuts 

Below-target growth to support further rate cuts 

Expectations of below-target growth and manageable inflation should support further rate cuts by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) this year, DBS Bank said in a report.

At the same time, a Nomura Global Markets Research analyst said the BSP could have delivered a rate cut instead of a pause at last week’s meeting amid “persistent” uncertainty.

“The growth-inflation dynamic backs further rate cuts, with the real rate buffer considerably wide at 2.5%-2.75%, providing room for monetary policy to be growth supportive,” DBS Senior Economist Radhika Rao said.

DBS expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow below 6% this year after a weaker-than-expected 5.6% growth in 2024. The government is targeting 6-8% growth this year.

Inflation has been “buoyant” in the past few months, DBS said. Headline inflation remained steady at 2.9% in January, within the central bank’s 2-4% target.

“Food supply disruptions due to a lagged impact of typhoons, utility costs and a weaker peso were behind this spurt, though are likely to be viewed as temporary and will not deter the central bank from a dovish path,” it added.

DBS expects the central bank to deliver up to 50 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts this year.

“After a 75-bp rate reduction in 2024, the BSP is likely to bide time to monitor risk of further tariffs and the consequent inflation/US dollar path, before resuming further easing,” Ms. Rao said.

The BSP left the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.75% on Feb. 13, with BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. citing global uncertainties due to US trade policies.

Nomura Global Markets Research analyst Euben Paracuelles said central banks, including the BSP, might struggle to consider the implications of US President Donald J. Trump’s tariff policies.

“I think this is going to be a sort of a persistent type of uncertainty. We will never really get a good handle of it. And I think sometimes it’s better to be just reactive than proactive just because of the extent of the uncertainty,” he said in an interview on Money Talks with Cathy Yang on One News on Tuesday.

Mr. Remolona last week said the BSP is recalibrating their models to better account for these uncertainties and other “unusual” phenomena.

“The uncertainty in itself is the one that’s going to create some downside pressure and growth, whether it’s weighing on business sentiment and other indirect channels,” Mr. Paracuelles said.

“And more importantly, we’ve already seen this in the first Trump administration. So, it’s not that difficult to think about the risks and how they play out when we get some of these tariffs announced by President Trump.”

Mr. Trump is planning to impose reciprocal tariffs on every country that charges duties on US imports, a move that has raised fears of a wider global trade war.

“So, to me, it’s a downside risk to growth. And therefore, it’s not a reason for us (to hold rates). It’s actually a reason to keep cutting,” Mr. Paracuelles said.

He said the Philippine economy “still needs a little bit of support from all policy fronts.”

“So, after they paused, I think there’s a little bit of a change in the sequencing. There might be a little bit of a preference to inject liquidity via the RRR (reserve requirement ratio) cuts, which they’ve already done in October,” he said.

“I think they’re doing more. What that does really is it improves the policy transmission of later policy rate cuts, which I still expect for the rest of the year, given a very benign inflation outlook. So, the BSP can actually focus a little bit more on supporting the economy with all of these tools.”

The central bank is looking to bring down the RRR to 5% from 7% this year.

“The RRR could be front-loaded a little bit. I think April is a good window because, obviously, we have the elections coming in early May, and that means the critical conditions could tighten,” Mr. Paracuelles added.

The BSP reduced the RRR for universal and commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions by 250 bps to 7% from 9.5%, which took effect in October. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Remittances jump to record USD 34.49B

Remittances jump to record USD 34.49B

Cash remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) hit an all-time high of USD 34.49 billion in 2024, data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

Money sent home by OFWs through banks rose by 3% to USD 3.38 billion in December from USD 3.28 billion in the same month in 2023. This was the highest-ever monthly level for cash remittances.

This brought the full-year remittance level to a record-high USD 34.49 billion, up by 3% from USD 33.49 billion posted in 2023.

2024 Cash Remittances Hit Record High

This was in line with the BSP’s 3% remittance growth forecast and its full-year projection of USD 34.5 billion.

“The increase was observed in remittances from both land-based and sea-based workers,” the BSP said.

In December alone, remittances from land-based workers jumped by 3.7% year on year to USD 2.71 billion from USD 2.61 billion.

For the full year, remittances from land-based workers increased by 3.4% to USD 27.55 billion from USD 26.64 billion in 2023.

Meanwhile, money sent by sea-based workers inched up by 0.6% to USD 669.28 million in December and rose by 1.3% to USD 6.94 billion for the full year.

Personal remittances, which include inflows in kind, rose by 3% to USD 3.73 billion in December from USD 3.62 billion in December 2023.

As of end-2024, personal remittances increased by 3% to USD 38.34 billion from USD 37.21 billion in the year prior. This also marked an all-time high for personal remittances.

The remittances accounted for 8.3% and 7.4% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national income (GNI), respectively.

“The growth in cash remittances from the United States, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates, mainly contributed to the increase in remittances in 2024,” the central bank said.

The US was the top source of cash remittances last year, accounting for 40.6% of the total.

This was followed by Singapore (7.2%), Saudi Arabia (6.4%), Japan (4.9%) and the United Kingdom (4.7%).

Other sources of remittances include the United Arab Emirates (4.4%), Canada (3.6%), Qatar (2.8%), Taiwan (2.7%), and South Korea (2.5%).

“The growth in cash remittances in 2024 reflects the continued resilience of OFWs in supporting the Philippine economy,” John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said.

“Sustained economic recovery in the US, Middle East, and Asia-Pacific led to higher wages and employment opportunities for OFWs, boosting remittances,” he added.

Mr. Rivera said the weaker peso in the last few months of the year also increased the value of remittances sent home.

At end-2024, the peso closed at P57.845 against the dollar, depreciating by 4.28% from its end-2023 finish of P55.37. It also fell to the record-low P59-per-dollar level thrice last year.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the surge in remittances was also due to seasonal factors amid the holidays.

“December saw a seasonal uptick in remittances as OFWs sent additional funds for holiday-related expenses and family support. The adoption of digital remittance platforms made transfers faster and cheaper, encouraging higher remittance flows,” Mr. Rivera added.

For this year, Mr. Rivera said remittances are likely to remain a stable growth driver.

“Continued overseas labor demand, particularly in healthcare, tech, and skilled trades. More favorable exchange rates could encourage higher remittance volumes. Government agreements and labor deployment policies could open new job markets.”

Mr. Ricafort said remittances have been “growing consistently around 3% year on year in recent months and years and still expected to similarly grow, going forward, being demographic based.”

However, global uncertainties stemming from US President Donald J. Trump’s trade policies could weigh on remittances, Mr. Ricafort said.

“Mr. Trump’s threats of higher tariffs and America-first policies could also slow down global trade, investments, employment including OFW jobs, and overall world economic growth,” he said.

Mr. Trump is eyeing to impose reciprocal tariffs across all US imports. This after slapping a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports into the US, which took effect earlier this month.

Mr. Rivera likewise noted that geopolitical tensions and a possible global economic downturn could dampen the growth in remittances.

“Overall, remittances are expected to maintain modest growth in 2025, barring major economic disruptions. The steady inflows will continue to support household spending, helping drive consumption-led growth,” Mr. Rivera added.

The central bank expects cash remittances to grow by 3% this year. – Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter

World Bank prepares USD 2.75-B lending program for Philippines in 2026

World Bank prepares USD 2.75-B lending program for Philippines in 2026

The World Bank  is committed to extending around USD 2.75 billion in loans to the Philippines for fiscal year 2026.

In an e-mail interview, World Bank Country Director for the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei Zafer Mustafaoğlu said the amount is 3.7% lower than the USD 2.857-billion lending program for the country for fiscal year 2025, which started in July 2024 and ends in June.

Mr. Mustafaoğlu last December said that the World Bank is finalizing the new country partnership framework for the Philippines, which will cover 2025-2028.

World Bank data showed the USD 4-million Roads to Development project is scheduled to be approved on Feb. 28. The project aims to improve rural road access in six formally acknowledged Moro Islamic Liberation Front camp communities.

Also up for approval on March 5 are the USD 454.94-million Mindanao Transport Connectivity Improvement Project (MTCIP) and the USD 495.6-million Health System Resilience Project.

The MTCIP focuses on local road improvements, climate resiliency, and road safety in the Cagayan de Oro, Davao, and General Santos corridor.

The health system project aims to strengthen provincial health systems, as well as improve the prevention, preparedness and response to health emergencies, including climate-driven adverse events.

The USD 67.34-million Civil Service Modernization Project, which is set to be approved on March 10, seeks to improve human resource management in National Government agencies.

The USD 800-million First Energy Transition and Climate Resilience development policy loan is also up for approval on March 31. It involves ramping up the adoption of clean energy technologies; boosting the security and competition of electricity markets; and improving water management.

The Department of Agriculture’s USD 1-billion Sustainable Agriculture Transformation Program is also up for approval on June 5. It aims to promote climate-resilient agri-food systems for increased productivity, enhanced diversification, and efficient use of public resources in the Philippines.

The USD 240.6-million Accelerated Water and Sanitation Project in selected areas is scheduled for approval on June 27. It aims to boost access to safe water and sanitation services, as well as strengthen the efficiency of local government-run water service providers.

The Department of Education’s USD 600-million Project for Learning Upgrade Support and Decentralization seeks to “improve the foundational literacy and numeracy of kindergarten and primary education learners, as well as the learning outcomes in reading and mathematics of lower secondary education learners in public schools nationwide.” It is up for approval on July 16.

The USD 700-million Community Resilience Project, scheduled for July 28, aims to “enable participatory community-driven resilience planning and investments in vulnerable areas.”

In its annual report for fiscal year 2024, the World Bank said the Philippines was the fifth-biggest borrower with USD 2.35 billion in approved loans from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Ukraine was the World Bank’s biggest borrower with USD 4.086 billion in loans, followed by Turkey with USD 3.191 billion, Indonesia with USD 3.028 billion, and India with USD 2.943 billion.

The total amount of loans secured by the Philippines in 2024 was 0.6% higher than USD 2.336-billion loans in 2023. – Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporter

Recto says Philippines is Trump 2.0-ready

Recto says Philippines is Trump 2.0-ready

The Philippines is ready to face the uncertainties brought by US President Donald J. Trump’s trade policies as it implements the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act, Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said.

Mr. Recto and Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina Aldeguer-Roque on Monday signed the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the CREATE MORE law.

“With the signing of this IRR, we now send a clear message to the world: the Philippines means business. We are ready to compete. We are a dependable economic ally. We offer stability amid uncertainty. And yes — we are Trump 2.0-ready,” he said in a speech at the signing ceremony.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. last November signed into law the CREATE MORE Act, which seeks to make the country more competitive and attractive to investors.

“On the part of the government, we are committed to making CREATE MORE not just a tool to attract more investments — but a magnet to keep them here, grow them here, and give every reason for investors to place their trust in the Philippines. Again and again,” Mr. Recto said.

Last month, Mr. Recto said the CREATE MORE will convince companies operating in China and Taiwan to move operations to the Philippines amid Mr. Trump’s aggressive tariffs.

Mr. Trump has already announced tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports beginning on March 12 and imposed 10% tariffs on goods from China.

The US president is also seeking to impose reciprocal tariffs across all countries that tax US imports, raising fears of a broader trade war.

The Department of Finance (DoF) said in a statement that the IRR provides clearer guidelines on the transitory rules for pre-CREATE registered business enterprises (RBEs) to continue receiving their previously granted tax incentives. The RBEs may also avail of additional incentives or measures under CREATE MORE.

“It also directly addresses investor concerns regarding the issuance of the value-added tax zero-rating certificate by providing detailed guidelines on eligibility and compliance criteria and clarifying the certificate’s covered period,” the DoF said.

One of the features of the IRR is prohibiting double registration of projects to deter redundant incentives and ensure responsible fiscal management.

Meanwhile, the Philippines is targeting to conduct a series of roadshows to promote CREATE MORE starting March this year.

“It is useless to have a law and to have IRR that nobody knows about. So, our job now is to announce it to the world,” Office of the Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs Secretary Frederick D. Go told a press briefing on Monday.

“We have scheduled trips to Korea, to the United States, to Japan, to Europe, to the Middle East, and to China,” he added.

Mr. Go also said the CREATE MORE’s rules “stayed true and consistent” with the intent of the law. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante and Justine Irish D. Tabile

Trade war may hamper policy path

Trade war may hamper policy path

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is likely to continue its easing cycle, but second-round effects from a looming global trade war could hamper its policy path, analysts said.

“The BSP remains in an easing mode from a fundamentally tight monetary stance; it is yet to unwind its significant tightening of previous years,” GlobalSource Partners Country Analyst and former BSP Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo said.

“However, the BSP could find itself in the middle of its easing mode faced with upside risks,” he added.

The central bank unexpectedly held interest rates steady last Thursday, leaving the target reverse repurchase rate (RRP) unchanged at 5.75%.

This after the Monetary Board delivered three straight rate cuts since it began easing in August. It cut rates by a total of 75 basis points (bps) by end-2024.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said the decision to hold rates was due to global uncertainties arising from the US’ tariff policies. He has said he is more concerned about the indirect effects of these tariff moves, as direct effects on the Philippines will likely be modest.

Markets have been rattled by fears of a global trade war amid US President Donald J. Trump’s plan to slap reciprocal tariffs on every country that taxes US imports.

Mr. Guinigundo said these tariff adjustments could directly impact price levels and domestic inflation in the short term.

“Trade uncertainties also tend to increase the risk premium and therefore they could also pose inflationary pressures. Direct effects of tariff and trade uncertainties as well as the impact of fuel prices could be limited as yet, but the indirect effects on wages, transport fare, and domestic pricing could be substantial,” he said.

Mr. Guinigundo said these second-round effects could “build up into inflation” in the coming months.

In a report, Capital Economics said the indirect impact from reciprocal tariffs “would potentially prove bigger” than a universal tariff.

“A reciprocal tariff would potentially undermine the case for friendshoring in those emerging markets that have high tariff barriers given that there would be other, less vulnerable options for multinationals to consider when it comes to supply chain configuration — notably Vietnam and other parts of Southeast Asia as well as developed markets,” it said.

ANZ Research said emerging Asian economies would be under a “direct line of fire” if reciprocal tariffs were implemented.

“The current trade tensions could become significantly more disruptive if the US administration imposes reciprocal tariffs on Asian economies,” ANZ said.

“Unlike in 2018, when these economies experienced only secondary effects from the US-China trade war, they would now be directly impacted.”

The United States is the Philippines’ top destination for exports, while China is usually the Philippines’ biggest source of imports.

Citi Economist for the Philippines Nalin Chutchotitham said these trade policies could also put pressure on the peso.

“Looking ahead, the delayed Fed funds rate cut and the US trade policy uncertainties pose risks of peso depreciation, which could impact inflation via imports of food and energy, as well as from converted income remittances from overseas workers,” she said.

Measured easing

Despite the pause last week, analysts said that the BSP will likely continue easing rates but at a cautious and measured pace.

“We think the decision signals BSP is looking to slow the pace of the easing cycle (after three consecutive cuts), based on the governor’s definition of ‘measured’ and absent a strong rationale for the on-hold decision,” Nomura Global Markets Research analysts Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani said.

Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said he sees limited room for monetary easing this year.

“A narrowing interest rate differential could lead to capital outflows, while the country’s current account deficit heightens the vulnerability to external shocks… Keeping interest rates steady might be needed to mitigate these risks. We still expect the policy rate to end the year at 5.25%,” he said.

For the rest of the year, Mr. Guinigundo said he expects two more rate cuts.

“Depending on future data on inflation and inflation expectations, two more rate cuts could be in the works,” he said.

“Easing monetary policy could have marginal effects on growth. But tightening it promises better results in taming inflation without significant collateral harm on growth.”

At the same time, Nomura expects the Monetary Board to lower borrowing costs by 75 bps through three rate cuts.

“We still forecast an additional 75 bps of policy rate cuts in this cycle, taking the RRP rate to 5%, which we still believe is BSP’s estimate of the neutral level, given its forward guidance suggesting its stance remains restrictive and that it will look to reduce this restrictiveness.”

Both Nomura and Citi expect the Monetary Board to cut rates in April, August and December by 25 bps each.

“While we think the BSP could afford to cut a total of 75 bps this year, considering a high real policy rate and positive interest rate differential with the Fed, Governor Remolona’s more cautious forward guidance of a total of 50-bp cut this year means a third cut still hinges on several factors besides domestic demand and inflation,” Ms. Chutchotitham said.

For his part, Mr. Neri said the BSP could resume cutting rates in June.

“Additional policy easing is still possible later this year, as the outlook for domestic inflation continues to be positive. There’s a chance that the BSP could cut in June if the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in May continues to disappoint,” he said.

However, he said uncertainties from the Federal Reserve’s guidance and changing global conditions could make cutting rates in the second half of the year more challenging.

Mr. Remolona has said the BSP is still in an easing cycle, adding there is a possibility of up to 50 bps worth of rate cuts this year.

RRR cut in April

Meanwhile, Nomura expects the BSP to further reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in April.

“We think April is a plausible window, as demand for liquidity could pick up ahead of the midterm elections in May,” it said.

“We have also argued that this sequencing (i.e., RRR cuts first before further rate RRP cuts) makes sense. From BSP’s perspective, these cuts are consistent with its longer-term goal of reducing the RRR to single-digit levels but also helping to further improve the transmission of its policy rate cuts later in the year.”

Mr. Remolona has said an RRR cut is still on the table this year, possibly before the Monetary Board’s next policy review on April 3.

He has signaled a 200-bp reduction, which would bring the RRR for big banks to 5% from the current 7%.

“Potentially, such a move would help support economic activity while having limited impact on the exchange rate versus the policy rate,” Ms. Chutchotitham added. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

External debt service burden jumps 14% at end-November

External debt service burden jumps 14% at end-November

The country’s external debt service burden jumped by 14% as of end-November amid a rise in both principal and interest payments, preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

Debt servicing on external borrowings rose by 14% to USD 15.735 billion in the 11-month period from USD 13.808 billion in the same period in 2023.

Central bank data showed principal payments increased by 12.9% to USD 8.39 billion from USD 7.431 billion in the same period in 2023.

Amortization payments accounted for over half (53.3%) of total debt servicing during the period.

Meanwhile, interest payments jumped by 15.2% to USD 7.345 billion in the January-to-November period from USD 6.377 billion a year ago.

The BSP said that the debt service burden represents principal and interest payments after rescheduling. 

This includes principal and interest payments on fixed medium- and long-term credits including International Monetary Fund credits, loans covered by the Paris Club and commercial banks’ rescheduling, and New Money Facilities.

It also covers interest payments on fixed and revolving short-term liabilities of banks and nonbanks.

However, the debt service burden data exclude prepayments on future years’ maturities of foreign loans and principal payments on fixed and revolving short-term liabilities of banks and nonbanks.

Latest data from the BSP showed the Philippines’ outstanding external debt hit a record USD 139.64 billion as of end-September, higher by 17.5% year on year.

Broken down, this was composed of USD 86.88 billion in public sector debt and USD 52.76 billion from private sector obligations.

This brought the external debt-to-GDP ratio to 30.6% at the end of the third quarter.

At end-September, the external debt service burden as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) stood at 3.9%, up from 3.5% in the previous year.

The BSP’s external debt data cover borrowings of Philippine residents from nonresident creditors, regardless of sector, maturity, creditor type, debt instruments or currency denomination.

“The higher external debt service was largely due to higher interest rates and weaker peso since 2022, as well as the need to finance wider budget deficits that increased the need for total both local and foreign borrowings,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said.

Though the central bank began cutting rates in August last year, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has said the policy rate is still in “restrictive territory.”

The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points at each of its last three meetings last year, bringing the key rate to 5.75%.

The Monetary Board last week kept interest rates steady amid global uncertainties.

The peso was under pressure towards the fourth quarter of 2024. The local unit fell to the record-low PHP 59-per-dollar level twice in November.

Latest data from the Treasury showed the budget deficit ballooned to P1.18 trillion in the January-to-November period from the PHP 1.11-billion deficit last year. 

“Going forward, the National Government (NG) reduced the share of foreign borrowings in its overall borrowing program to reduce forex risks involved in external borrowings denominated in US dollars or foreign currencies,” Mr. Ricafort said.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto has said they will continue lowering the share of external borrowings in its borrowing program.

From this year to 2027, the NG plans to source at least 80% of its borrowing program from domestic sources, and 20% from foreign lenders. The government previously adopted a 75:25 borrowing mix. – Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter

Philippine financial system’s resources near PHP 34T

Philippine financial system’s resources near PHP 34T

The total resources of the Philippine financial system rose by 7.8% to nearly PHP 34 trillion in 2024, preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

Resources of banks and nonbank financial institutions  jumped to PHP 33.78 trillion last year from PHP 31.34 trillion in 2023.

Financial system resources include funds and assets such as deposits, capital, as well as bonds or debt securities.

BSP data showed banks’ resources increased by 8.9% to PHP 28.26 trillion as of end-2024 from PHP 25.96 trillion in the previous year.

Broken down, resources of universal and commercial banks stood at PHP 26.44 trillion, higher by 8.7% from PHP 24.32 trillion in 2023.  Big banks accounted for the bulk or 78.3% of total resources last year.

Thrift banks’ resources went up by 5.9% to PHP 1.17 trillion in 2024 from PHP 1.1 trillion in the year prior.

Total resources held by digital banks reached PHP 121.8 billion in 2024, up 33.6% from PHP 91.2 billion in 2023. The BSP began consolidating data from digital banks starting March 2023.

Rural and cooperative banks’ resources climbed by 18% to PHP 527.1 billion as of end-2024 from PHP 446.5 billion in the prior year.

Meanwhile, latest available data showed that nonbanks’ resources stood at PHP 5.52 trillion as of end-June. There were no available data as of end-December.

Nonbanks include investment houses, finance companies, security dealers, pawnshops and lending companies.

Institutions such as nonstock savings and loan associations, credit card companies, private insurance firms, the Social Security System and the Government Service Insurance System are also considered nonbank financial institutions.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the growth in financial resources could largely be attributed to the growth in bank lending.

Separate BSP data showed outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks jumped by 12.2% year on year to PHP 13.1 trillion in December. This was the fastest pace of bank lending growth in two years.

“Furthermore, the continued growth in banks’ net income also contributed to the growth in banks’ capital and overall assets,” Mr. Ricafort added.

The Philippine banking industry’s combined net profit rose by 9.8% to an all-time high of PHP 391.28 billion at end-December from PHP 356.49 billion in the year-ago period. 

The central bank’s rate-cutting cycle also brought down loan rates and increased demand for credit, Mr. Ricafort said.

In 2024, the Monetary Board lowered borrowing costs by a total of 75 basis points (bps) since it began its easing cycle in August, bringing the benchmark rate to 5.75%.

The reduction in reserve requirements also supported the ability of banks to increase loans and investments, he added.

The BSP cut the reserve requirement ratio for universal and commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions by 250 bps to 7% from 9.5%, which took effect last October. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Banks’ bad loan ratio falls to one-year low

Banks’ bad loan ratio falls to one-year low

The Philippine banking system’s gross nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio fell to a one-year low in December, preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

The industry’s gross NPL ratio slid to 3.27% in December from 3.54% in November. This was the lowest NPL ratio since the 3.24% posted in December 2023.

BSP data showed the amount of bad loans declined by 3.9% to PHP 500.3 billion as of end-December from PHP 520.5 billion a month earlier.

Year on year, soured loans rose by 11.4% from PHP 449 billion.

Loans are considered nonperforming once they remain unpaid for at least 90 days after the due date. These are deemed as risk assets since borrowers are unlikely to pay.

The total loan portfolio of Philippine banks increased by 4.1% to PHP 15.3 trillion as of end-December from PHP 14.7 trillion at end-November. Year on year, it jumped by 10.6% from PHP 13.9 trillion in the same period in 2023.

Past due loans dropped by 4.8% to PHP 604.9 billion as of December from PHP 635.5 billion a month ago. However, it climbed by 10.2% from PHP 548.9 billion a year earlier.

This brought the past due ratio to 3.95% in December, lower than 4.32% in November and 3.96% a year prior.

Restructured loans accounted for 2.03% of the industry’s loan portfolio, a tad higher than the 2% in November but lower than the 2.18% in the same month in 2023.

Banks’ loan loss reserves inched up by 0.9% to PHP 480.7 billion in December from PHP 485.2 billion in November. Year on year, it rose by 5.2% from PHP 456.9 billion.

This brought the loan loss reserve ratio to 3.14% as of end-December, higher than 3.3% at both end-November and end-December 2023.

Lenders’ NPL coverage ratio, which gauges the allowance for potential losses due to bad loans, rose to 96.08% in December from 93.21% in November but was lower than 101.74% in the same month in 2023.

Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at professional service firm Reyes Tacandong & Co., said lower interest rates and easing inflation last year helped bring down NPLs.

“Note that the BSP has cut policy rates by 75 bps in 2024 and falling inflation helps stem the rise in NPL,” he said.

The central bank reduced borrowing costs by a total of 75 bps since it began its easing cycle in August 2024. This brought the key rate to 5.75% by yearend.

Headline inflation averaged 3.2% last year, in line with the BSP’s forecast. This was the first time that full-year inflation fell within the central bank’s 2-4% target since 2021, when inflation averaged 3.9%.

“Furthermore, banks’ loan growth at the fastest in two years also widened the loans base, thereby mathematically reducing the NPL ratio,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

Separate BSP data showed bank lending jumped by 12.2% year on year to PHP 13.1 trillion in December. This was the fastest lending growth in two years.

For the coming months, the NPL ratio could ease further if the central bank is able to continue cutting policy rates and reserve requirements, Mr. Ricafort said.

“With sticky inflation and challenges of Trump 2.0, it would be a herculean feat to bring it down back pre-pandemic levels,” Mr. Ravelas said.

Markets are pricing in the impact of US President Donald J. Trump’s latest policies, such as tighter tariffs, on inflation and interest rates. 

“Prospects of rate cuts are challenging, at best we could see 50 bps this year and inflation risks remain,” he added. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Palace taps Dizon to head Transportation Dept. after Bautista resigns

Palace taps Dizon to head Transportation Dept. after Bautista resigns

Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. has tapped former Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Vivencio “Vince” B. Dizon to head the Department of Transportation (DoTr).

“He (Mr. Dizon) is already authorized by the Office of the President to start the transition at the Department of Transportation in coordination with the team of Secretary Jaime J.  Bautista, who has resigned due to health reasons,” Executive Secretary Lucas P. Bersamin said in a statement on Thursday.

Mr. Bautista’s resignation will take effect on Feb. 21.

Mr. Dizon, 50, is the chief regulatory officer of the Razon-led Prime Infrastructure Holdings. He served as president and CEO of BCDA from 2016 to 2021.

Under the Duterte administration, Mr. Dizon was the presidential adviser on flagship programs and projects, as well as deputy chief implementer of the National Action Plan against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

In a DoTr statement, Mr. Bautista thanked the President for the opportunity to work in government, calling it “his most challenging stint.”

Mr. Bautista said he looks forward to a “smooth transition” and a “much-needed vacation” after having worked as DoTr chief since 2022.

Mr. Bautista previously served as the president and chief operating officer of flag carrier Philippines Airlines where he retired in 2019.

The newly appointed Transportation secretary is set to inherit big-ticket and long-delayed infrastructure projects such as the construction of the Metro Rail Transit Line 7 (MRT-7), North-South Commuter Railway, and Mindanao Railway Project.

“He has to assess all projects in the pipeline. He can’t shift course immediately, because of the budget approved by Congress,” Rene S. Santiago, a founding member of the Transportation Science Society of the Philippines, told BusinessWorld in a Viber message.

“The previous obsession with railways needs to be dialed down and he needs to focus on the crisis of the dwindling supply of buses and jeepneys.”

In August last year, Mr. Marcos rejected a proposal to suspend the government’s Public Utility Vehicle Modernization Program (PUVMP), defending it from criticisms that the plan had been rushed.

The modernization program started in 2017, aiming to replace traditional jeepneys with units that have at least a Euro 4-compliant engine to cut pollution.

Transport group Manibela Chairman Mar S. Valbuena said the group is hoping that the DoTr will revisit the implementation of PUVMP now that it will be under a new leadership.

“We are hoping that the new Secretary will listen to our suggestions and proposed transport solutions. We will remain vigilant, particularly, on the policies he will pursue,” Mr. Valbuena said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Santiago said Mr. Dizon had a good track record at the BCDA, citing his work in overseeing the construction of the Athlete’s Village in the New Clark City Sports Complex in Tarlac.

Nigel Paul C. Villarete, senior adviser on PPP (public-private partnership) at Libra Konsult, Inc., welcomed the appointment of Mr. Dizon, but said he should ensure all existing programs and projects continue unhampered and proceed smoothly.

“DoTr is tricky because it requires a good balance across planning, implementation and operations, and its numerous sub departments and attached agencies would need varied expertise and experience to get a good grasp of this very essential department,” Mr. Villarete said in a Viber message.

Mr. Villarete said the DoTr should also continue the public-private partnerships program, particularly for aviation projects.

“Of course, the other one on my list would be airports… We need to fast-track airport development in order to keep ahead. Transportation, especially air travel, is foremost in economic development,” he said.

Last year, the government privatized the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA), with San Miguel-led New NAIA Infra Corp. taking over its operations.

Two more regional airports have been awarded to the private sector in 2024, the Laguindingan International Airport and New Bohol-Panglao International Airport. These two regional airports were both awarded to Aboitiz InfraCapital, Inc.

“Vince Dizon provides the agility and dynamism of youth to the Transportation department, which had been unfortunately absent in the previous leadership,” Terry L. Ridon, a public investment analyst and convenor of think tank InfraWatch PH, said in a Facebook Messenger chat,

He said his experience in handling infrastructure projects and his time as the presidential projects adviser will help him deal with issues in the transportation sector.

“We trust that the new secretary will continue to prioritize the movement of people, especially the most vulnerable, and pursue more people-centric transportation policies,” said AltMobility PH Spokesperson Patrick R. Jalasco.

Meanwhile, Transportation Undersecretary for Railways Jeremy S. Regino said in a text message that he submitted his irrevocable resignation on Jan. 22. – John Victor D. Ordoñez and Ashley Erika O. Jose, Reporters

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